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Atlantic Basin Main Development Region. Above Normal Season. 103. Near Normal. 65. Below Normal Season. Active Decades. Active Decade. IN-active Decades. Historical Perspective: ACE Index. Moderate and Strong El Niño during July-September (CPC Official). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Historical Perspective: ACE Index
Active DecadesActive Decades Active DecadeActive Decade
Above Above NormalNormalSeason Season
NearNearNormal Normal
Below Below NormalNormalSeasonSeason
IN-active DecadesIN-active Decades
0
50
100
150
200
25019
50
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
AC
E (
x10,
000
kt2 )
Atlantic Basin Main Development RegionAtlantic Basin Main Development Region
6565
103103
Moderate and Strong El Niño during July-September (CPC Official)Moderate and Strong El Niño during July-September (CPC Official)
Atlantic Tracks for 1997Tropical Cyclone Tracks: In-Active 1997Tropical Cyclone Tracks: In-Active 1997
Main DevelopmentRegion (MDR)
Atlantic Tracks for 1998Tropical Cyclone Tracks: Active 1998Tropical Cyclone Tracks: Active 1998
Main DevelopmentRegion (MDR)
Correlation of Seasonal Snowfall with NAO 1950-1999
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
15
25
10
5
20
0
-8 -7 -5-6 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8SMOOTHED DE-TRENDED NAO
****************
* **** ********
********
*********
***
N=50A=-3.5B=34.66R=-0.6446
3 Major Northeast Snowstorms vs. Daily Values of NAO Index
12Z, December 5, 2002
Most Recent Northeast Snowstorm
AAO: Antarctic Oscillation
PNA: Pacific North American Oscillation
AO: Arctic Oscillation
NAO: North Atlantic Oscillation
Forecast Skill for Selected Global Circulation Components
The View Ahead
Decision Systems will have weather – climate input
Predictive model will include all earth system components
Models will have to provide level of uncertainty – all forecasts will be ensemble-based
Methodology Framework
Sector Assessments and Multi-sector Overview• Develop understanding needed for next steps• Set research priorities (natural, social, policy)
Development and Evolution of In-depth Programs• Estimate value of various forecasts• Identify opportunities: prototypes/full systems
Implementation of In-depth Programs• Realize opportunities, e.g., fog forecasting,
2-day temperature forecasts, electricity transmission system needs, QPF, etc.
• Demonstrate and document prototype solutions
From Tim Killeen NCAR Director
Dutton, J.A., 2002: Opportunities andpriorities in a new era for weather and climate services. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1303-1311.
Earth System Modeling Framework Rollout
GFDL FMS B-grid atmosphere
GFDL MOM4 ocean
GFDL POM or MOM4
NCAR CAM
NCEP/NCAR WRF
NCEP atmosphere
NCEP analysis
NCEP model
DAO fvCAMDAO analysis
NSIPP atmosphere
NSIPP ocean
LANL CICE
Earth System
Modeling FrameworkDevelopment
MITgcm ocean
Adoption
All JMC validation codes compliant - April 04
UCLA AGCM
LANL HYPOP
CLM
GSFC Global LIS
Early adopters of the ESMF
- Broad use - Enhancement- Maintenance
One of: GISS, COLA, IRI, JPL, LLNL, Colorado State, U.Illinois, Scripps, U.Miami, NOAA FSL, Florida State, Rutgers, ORNL, Air Force Weather Agency, U.Washington
11/04
8/04
1/05
14 major Earth system codes
Each is coupled to a code never coupled to before:
- 3 by July 03 - all 14 by July 04
Unprecedented software sharing ease among the
nation’s major Earth system models
NASA
NASA
NASA NASANSF
NSF
NSF
NSF
NOAANSF
NOAA
NOAA
NOAA
DOE
MIT
NASA
DOE
?
UCLAEarly
ESTOEarth Science Technology Office
The View Ahead
Global “unified” climate – weather – water “Earth system model framework” (ESMF) ESMF – WRF infrastructure Examples: global – medium range; regional – short
range
New Models
Global
ESMF
DA
2
3
N
Init
1
2
3
N
DynamicCore 1
Dynamic Core 2
DynamicCore N
SREF
WxForecast
NOAH Conv B.L. Radiative
1
Explicit Cores (e.g., Hurricane, Dispersion, Aviation)
WRF Infrastructure
Weather Research Forecast Model (WRF)
Ensemble Forecast Systems
15 Members; 5 Eta (BMJ), 5 Eta (KF), 5 RSM
48 km resolution
Run twice daily from 09Z and 21Z to 63 hours
Products available ~same time as 12Z and 00Z Eta
11 Members T126(~105 km) to 84 hrs T62(~210 km) to 384 hrs Run twice daily from 00Z and
12Z
Regional Ensemble Global Ensemble
Ensemble Performance January 31, 2002
9AM RadarJanuary 31
Dominant precipitation type 27 hour forecast
valid 12Z January 31
Ensemble Performance January 31, 2002
Snow Freezing Rain
9AM RadarJan. 31, 2002
27 hour forecasts valid 12Z January 31
Role of the Forecaster
“Forecasting is exciting. The competitive instinct…swells and drives the forecaster into action…The challenge and the elation are largely lost in general-purpose forecasting…But the scientific challenge and the elation that stem from an exalted sense and purpose and usefulness are enormously enriched when you are called on to forecast for a specific and important operation…You have then become a member of a team…”
Yet today’s forecast systems – more and more automated. Less and less dependent on forecaster’s skill
Decision systems being planned with little or no human intervention – Mistake!
Sverre Petterssen, Weathering the Storm: Sverre Petterssen, the D-Day Forecast and the Rise of Modern Meteorology. Boston, AMS, 2001, pp 132-133.
Role of the Forecaster
Information management – intervention with “AI” type systems “Sustaining situational awareness”
“Service Agent” for decision makers Calm, sure voice preceding and during the extreme
event or “specific and important operation”
Summary
We continue to grow and link our forecast capabilities: Climate – Weather – Water
Models are becoming increasingly sophisticated in accounting for the total earth system
The forecasts are a cornerstone for the decision makers from military to business to leisure
“Forecasters” Service Agents will be increasingly relied upon for critical operations – extreme events
Challenge of “change” compounded by “rate of change”
End of Slides
The NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) is a bridge between the NASA EOS program and NPOESS. It is a joint NASA/IPO instrument risk reduction project for the following sensors under development: VIIRS, CrIS, ATMS
The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) merges Department of Defense (DoD) and Department of Commerce (DOC) meteorological satellite systems into a single national asset.
NPP NPOESS
Potential Skill (Red) -Assume perfect SST input to dynamical and statistical model forecasts.
Climate Forecast Skill
2nd coldest Nov-Decin observed record.
Forecast cold, obs warm
Cold summer bucks trend
La NinaEl Nino
Tem
pera
tur
eA
nom
aly
corr
elat
ion
SK
ILL
Obs=trend, W
W. cold, largemo-mo variability
Actual Skill (Green) -Need: Model Development Ocean-Atmosphere-Land surface
Better Observations
Information Doubling
• It took approximately 50,000 years for humanity to acquire that first unit
• It took 1500 years to double that first knowledge base
• By the early 70’s mankind was doubling knowledge every 6 years
• Human knowledge is expected to be doubling every year by 2012
If assumed that mankind had one unit of knowledge in the year 1AD
Spread of Products to ¼ of Population
Product Year Invented Years to Spread
Electricity 1873 46
Telephone 1876 35
Automobile 1886 55
Airplane 1903 64
Radio 1906 22
Television 1926 26
VCR 1952 34
Microwave Oven 1953 30
PC 1975 16
Cellular Phone 1983 13
Internet 1991 7