HMI & Apps: Perspectives for Genivi · HMI Trends Trends Comments Speech • Speech recognition as control input • Text -to-speech for output info • Telematics HFI, Navi, others

HMI & Apps: Perspectives for Genivi

Infotainment HMI TrendsFeature Availability Trendseatu e a ab ty e dsTouch, Voice, Displays & Interfaces

Apps & Feature TrendsUSA & EU TrendsUSA & EU TrendsNavigation, Entertainment & Others

China Infotainment TrendsInfotainment TrendsHead-Unit and Telematics

Summary PerspectivesSummary Perspectives

Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Principal Analyst, Infotainment & ADASMichael Liu, Senior Analyst

IVI HMI Technology: Big Picture

Control Input Information

Input Hardware

Alert/Feedback Information

Output HardwareHMI Software

Softwarep

MicrophoneStereo mics

DisplaysICD

Head-unit

Touch displayMulti-touchTouch pad

LightsSound

Vibration

Device driversRadio controlCD controlSpeech rec

Keyboard or Simulation

Head-unitHUD

Mirror

Speakers

Touch pad

Switch, KnobMulti-switches

Vibration pText-to-speechMulti-touchBT ProfilesHFI Software

I f

Haptic Output

SpeakersRotary SwitchRotary Haptic

Sensors

1-shot addressPattern reciPod controlInternet radio

InterfacesUSBSD

iPodA ili

InterfacesUSBSDSensors

CameraRadar

ProximityGesture

SMS & email via SR/TTS

AuxiliaryBluetooth

Wi-Fi

SDiPod

AuxiliaryBluetooth

Wi-Fi


Gesture Wi Fi

HMI must only take a fraction of the driver’s mental power, eye & hand activities

IHS Auto Model Availability Database

Key InformationWhat Is Database of infotainment feature availability by auto model It?

y yBy model year starting with 200614 countries included currently (about 70% of global sales)Over 22,000 model records in our database

Wh t I T l ti f tWhat Is Included?

Telematics featuresNavigation featuresHMI elements: Display, speech, touch, interfacesDigital and Satellite radio; Mass storage devicesg a a d Sa e e ad o; ass s o age de cesDriver assist and ADAS

Why? Early indicator of emerging tech trendsHistorical trend analysisCompetitive analysis toolUseful for estimating take-up rate trends by OEMs

Examples to Follo

Many slides to follow with availability trendsSpeech Touch & Displays


to Follow Speech, Touch & DisplaysInterfaces: iPod, USB, Flash Memory, Bluetooth

OEM Touch Screen Availability

60

70Not

Take up

50

60 Take-up Rate

30

40%

USAGermanyChina

20

ChinaJapan

0

10

MY06 MY07 MY08 MY09 MY10 MY11 MY12

% Share of Auto


MY06 MY07 MY08 MY09 MY10 MY11 MY12 Models

OEM Speech Input Availability

90

100Not

Take up

70

80Take-up

Rate

40

50

60

%USAGermanyChina

20

30

40Japan

0

10

20

% Share of Auto



Speech Recognition Availability by Control Function: MY 2012

Not Take-up

Rate90%

100%

60%

70%

80%

40%

50%

60%

10%

20%

30%

0%

10%

USA UK Germany France Italy Japan China

E b dd dPh M bil Ph N i i A di

Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.% Share of Auto Models

Embedded Phone Mobile Phone Navigation Audio

Steering Wheel Control Availability by Control Function: MY 2012

Not Take-up

Rate90%

100%

60%

70%

80%

40%

50%

60%

10%

20%

30%

0%

10%

USA UK Germany France Italy Japan China

Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.% Share of Auto Models

Embedded Phone Mobile Phone Navigation Audio

OEM Digital* Instrument Cluster Display Availability

60

70Not

Take-up Rate

50

60*Analog & Digital Display

30

40%

USAGermanyChina

20

30 ChinaJapan

0

10% Share of Auto



OEM Full Digital ICD Availability

3.5

4Not

Take up

25

3

Take-up Rate

2

2.5

%USAGermanyChina

1

1.5ChinaJapan

0

0.5% Share of Auto



OEM Digital Center Display Availability

90

100Not

Take up

70

80Take-up

Rate

40

50

60

%USAGermanyChina

20

30

40 ChinaJapan

0

10

20

% Share of Auto



OEM Head-Up Display Availability

10

12Not

Take up

8

10 Take-up Rate

6%USAGermanyChina

2

4 Japan

0

2


% Share of Auto



RSE Display Availability

35

40

25

30

35

20

25

%USAGermanyChina

10

15ChinaJapan

0

5


Share of Auto



OEM iPod Availability

90

100Not

Take up

70

80Take-up

Rate

40

50

60

%USAGermanyChina

20

30

40 ChinaJapan

0

10

MY06 MY07 MY08 MY09 MY10 MY11 MY12% Share of Auto



OEM USB Availability

80

90Not

Take up

60

70Take-up

Rate

40

50%

USAGermanyChina

20

30ChinaJapan

0

10


% Share of Auto



OEM Flash Memory Card Availability

35

40Not

Take up

25

30

35 Take-up Rate

20

25

%USAGermanyChina

10

15ChinaJapan

0

5


% Share of Auto



OEM Bluetooth Availability

90

100

Not Take up

60

70

80 Take-up Rate

40

50

60

%USAGermanyChina

20

30

40Japan

0

10

20

% Share of Auto



HMI TrendsTrends Comments

Speech • Speech recognition as control input• Text-to-speech for output info

• Telematics HFI, Navi, others• Navi messaging others• Text-to-speech for output info • Navi, messaging, others

Touch • Input control non-critical functions• Strong growth in USA & Japan• Multi-touch input is next

• Navi, comfort systems• EU use is lagging• Cadillac CUE is trend setterp

Rotary Haptic Control

• Pioneered by BMW and Audi• Increasing use in Europe• MF controllers on mid-range cars

• iDrive, MMI, others• BMW, M-B, Audi, others• Less used by US/AP OEMControl • Steering wheel control: rapid growth • All regions

Digital Displays

• Partial digital ICD is common• Digital ICD emerging in luxury cars

Di it l ICD ltif ti t t

• Analog and digital ICD• Also in BEV, HEV, PHEV

D i i f TM ADAS N ip y

• Digital ICD as multifunction output• Continued center display growth• HUD remains niche until better tech• Dual-view will remain niche market

• Driver info, TM, ADAS, Navi• Navi, comfort systems• Mostly luxury autos• Cost premium too high


• Rearview mirror has potentialp g

• First aftermarket; now OEM

ICD=Instrument Cluster Display

iPhone/iPad HMI Impact: When, not If

Key InformationMulti-Touch

iPhone popularized the multi-touch screen in 2007Multi touch gesturing is a major part of iPhone usabilityTouch

ScreenMulti-touch gesturing is a major part of iPhone usabilityOther Smartphones are using similar technologiesiPad is further showing multi-touch gesturing advantages

Auto HMI When will multi-touch gesturing arrive in auto infotainment?Auto HMI Usage

When will multi touch gesturing arrive in auto infotainment?How will multi-touch gesturing be used in head-units?How will multi-touch gesturing improve infotainment usability?Will multi-touch gesturing replace rotary haptic controllers?

Summary The first head-unit with a multi-touch gesturing user interfaceAvailable in August 2012—the Cadillac CUE8-inch with multi-touch gesture: tap, flick, swipe & spread Capacitive with haptic and tactile feedbackCapacitive with haptic and tactile feedbackCUE has IR proximity sensor to detect driver hand approaching displayCadillac CUE also have reconfigurable LCD for ICDCUE l k lik th t t f BIG HMI h


CUE looks like the start of a BIG HMI change


Infotainment HMI TrendsFeature Availability TrendsyTouch, Voice, Displays & Interfaces






Auto Music TrendsSegments Key Information Other InformationBroadcast Radio

Analog remains dominantDigital radio emerging

FM leads in music broadcastDAB, DAB+, DMB, DRM, HD Radiog g g

Digital format war, , , ,

Winners will vary by region Satellite Radio

Established in N. AmericaOndas plan 2013 EU launch

USA availability: 98% of car modelsOEMs: BMW, Nissan, Renault

Auto Internet Radio

Significant opportunityGenre is hot todayRadio stations aggregationCaching/download emerging

2 types: Genre & radio stationsPandora, Last.fm, Spotify, StitcherTune-in, iheartradio, othersSlacker and othersCaching/download emerging

Needs a data plan todaySlacker and othersMostly via Smartphone data plan

Stored Music

CD: Pre-recorded/user storedMemory cards: USB, SD

Slowly declining in importanceUSB becoming H-U standard

Mobile Device Music

iPod & iPhoneBluetooth A2DP

Continued growth in most regionsGrowing digital music streaming


Music Feature Availability: USA

80

90

100 Share of Auto Models Offering Features

60

70

80CDDVDMP3etc

40

50

60

%

MP3 etc.iPod IFAux InUSBIF

20

30

40 USB IFSat RadioHD RadioInetRadio

0

10

Inet Radio

Not Take up


MY06 MY07 MY08 MY09 MY10 MY11 MY12 Not Take-up Rate!

OEM Digital Radio Availability

35

40Not take-up rate

25

30

15

20

5

%USAGermanyChina

10

15 Japan

0

5


% Share of Auto M d l



Where Is I-V Navigation Going?

Question Will in-vehicle navi continue to grow, remain stable or decline? At what price point?

Answer Overall growth of embedded navigation will be very goodAnswer Overall growth of embedded navigation will be very goodPremium navi will have low growth and will stagnate and declineMedium-priced navi (under $1000) is growing stronglyEntry-priced navi (under $500) will have strong future growth

Why PND & Smartphones have shown drivers the value of navi appsThese drivers will only pay for entry or medium priced systemsNavi features are shifting from TbT-centric to traffic-centricTraffic-centric is useful every day—especially for commutingTraffic centric is useful every day especially for commuting

Other Info

Many entry navigation are based on PND SW-HW platforms Future SW-based head-unit may have PND-based navi appsTrend is similar for medium-priced in-vehicle naviTh b d PND ith t d iThese apps are based on PND with connected servicesRenault and TomTom have shown how successful low-cost, PND-based solution can beRenault sold 1M units in 2 years in Europe


y

On-Board Navigation Availability

80

90Not

Take up

60

70Take-up

Rate

40

50%

USAGermanyChina

20

30ChinaJapan

0

10


% Share of Auto



I-V Navi Segment Trends: Worldwide

70

80Entry: <$500

Mid: $500-1,500H-E: >$1,500

50

60

40

50

%EntryMid-RangeHi hE d

20

30 High-End

0

10Share of unit sale


02009 2011 2012 2013 2015 2017

25

unit sale

Where Is Telematics Going?

Question How important is telematics and connected car features?What telematics technologies will dominate?

Answer Telematics connections will be the foundation for the connected carAnswer Telematics connections will be the foundation for the connected car and will be required by the end of the decadeMultiple communications links will be used:

Embedded for auto centric and low bandwidth contentSmartphone for entertainment-centric and high bandwidth contentSmartphone for entertainment centric and high bandwidth contentBluetooth & USB to connect to SmartphoneWi-Fi for augmenting other links and for special purposes

Many cars will have multiple links with hybrid operation

Wh Drivers want to have similar connectivity in the car as they have atWhy Drivers want to have similar connectivity in the car as they have at home, in office and walking around with their SmartphonesBut with a safer HMI and minimal driver distractionWanted features changes and grows every year

Other Info

Smartphone-based solution will become leading approach due to lower cost, data plan and thousands of car-centric appsEmbedded will remain important and will become standard in some regions to serve safety functions and for remote software upgrades


g y pg

Telematics via Mobile Phone Availability

30

35Not

Take up

25

30 Take-up Rate

15

20%

USAGermanyChina

10

ChinaJapan

0

5


% Share of Auto


MY06 MY07 MY08 MY09 MY10 MY11 MY12 ModelsSync-type telematics service

Embedded Telematics Availability

30

35Not

Take up

25

30 Take-up Rate

15

20%

USAGermanyChina

10

ChinaJapan

0

5


% Share of Auto


MY06 MY07 MY08 MY09 MY10 MY11 MY12 ModelsOnStar-type telematics service

IVI Apps Overview

IVI Apps• Downloaded apps• Driver chosen

IVI Apps• Built-in apps• OEM chosen

IVI Apps• Apps integration• OEM chosen

Smartphone Apps & ContentDriver chosen OEM chosen OEM chosen Content

OEM API based apps

“Standard” Interface apps

IVI HMI Software Platform• Auto OEM specific • Genivi 2.0

Hardware Abstraction Layer• Equivalent to BIOS in PCs

IVI Software Platform• OS Kernel & Middleware

Genivi 2.0• Microsoft WEA7 • QNX & CAR• Android X.y

• Equivalent to BIOS in PCsIVI Hardware Platform

• Atom, ARM, MIPS, others?IVI HMI Hardware


IVI HMI Hardware• Input, Output & Control

IVI Apps OverviewIVI Apps

• Downloaded apps• Driver chosen



Smartphone Apps & Content

Pl fC t St d dT l & LBS M i Platforms• Android• iPhone 5• WP8• BlackBerry 10

Current Standards• MirrorLink• Aha Radio• Pioneer Zypr• Airbiquity Choreo

• Travel & LBS• Eco apps• Social network apps• Entertainment apps• Car-centric apps

• Music apps• Navi-LBS apps• Telematics apps• Search apps• CRM apps

IVI HMI Software Platform

yq y• Livio Connect• VNC, Google OAP• HTML5 interpreter?

pp• PAYD

pp• Remote diagnostics• SP remote control


• Auto OEM specific • Genivi• Microsoft • QNX• Android


IVI Hardware Platform• Atom, ARM, MIPS, others?

Android


Atom, ARM, MIPS, others?IVI HMI Hardware

• Input, Output & Control








The Chinese Market of In vehicle Infotainment and TelematicsIn-vehicle Infotainment and Telematics

October 2012

Michael LiuSenior Analyst

Automotive & Transportation Group

[email protected]+86 21 2230 2310


About IHS

We are more than 5,500 people, in 30 countries, speaking 50 languages - all working each day to:

• Serve businesses and all levels of government worldwide• Ranging from 80% of Global Fortune 500 to small businesses• Customers in 167 countries

P id h i t t ft d t l i d f t• Provide comprehensive content, software and expert analysis and forecasts

Helping our customers drive critical processes and make high-impact decisions with speed and confidence

Energy & Power

Design &Supply Chain

EHS &Sustainability

Defense, Risk &Security

Country & IndustryForecasts

Commodities,Pricing & Cost


About IHS AutomotiveIHS Automotive is made up of experts from the former CSM Worldwide, IHS GlobalInsight's Automotive Group, as well as Supplier Business, iSuppli, TelematicsResearch Group and IMS Research. Collectively, we offer clients the mostcomprehensive content and deepest expertise and insight on the automotive industrycomprehensive content and deepest expertise and insight on the automotive industryavailable anywhere in the world today.

IHS Automotive includes more than 200 colleagues working in global offices aroundthe world The basis of the unit is a world class vehicle sales and productionthe world. The basis of the unit is a world class vehicle sales and productionforecasting process from which all IHS technology forecasts are based.

IHS is the leading source of information, insight and analytics in critical areas thatshape today's business landscape Businesses and governments in more than 165shape today s business landscape. Businesses and governments in more than 165countries around the globe rely on the comprehensive content, expert independentanalysis and flexible delivery methods of IHS to make high-impact decisions anddevelop strategies with speed and confidence.

IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on theNew York Stock Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA,IHS employs more than 5,500 people in more than 30 countries around the world.


China Light Vehicle Sales

25

30

20

25

10

15#M Units

5

10

02011 2012 2013 2015 2019


Source: IHS Automotive

China vs. USA Light Vehicle Sales: Worldwide Share

25

30

20

25

10

15% ChinaUSA

5

10

02008 2011 2012 2013 2015 2019


Source: IHS Automotive

Interface & HMI Availability: China

60

70 Share of Auto Models

Offering Features

50Aux InUSB

30

40%

USBFlash CardiPod IFTouch

20

TouchSpeechBluetooth

0

10

Not Take up



Display Availability: China

60


Offering Features

50

Analog/Digital ICD

30

40%

Analog/Digital ICDLCD ICDCenterHUD

20

HUDRSE

0

10

Not Take up



Apps & Feature Availability: China

50


Offering Features

40

50

IV Navi

30%Traffic InfoDest DownloadMP Telematics

10

20 Embedded TMBranded Audio

0

10

Not Take up



China Head-Unit TrendsSegment Key Information

Audio Head-Units

OEM audio head units will remain the largest segment in unit sales—growing from 11.4M in 2011 to 14.8M in 2018Units g gOEM audio revenue will remain almost flat the next 5 years

Audio/Video Head-Units

OEM audio/video head-units are shrinking and will disappear after 2013Safety issues and limited demand for watching video contentSafety issues and limited demand for watching video content while in the car are the major reasons for the decline

Navigation Head-Units

OEM navigation head units are growing quickly to 8.2M units in 2018, 7X more than 2011's estimated 1.2M unitsNavigation growth is caused by 2 main reasons:Navigation growth is caused by 2 main reasons:

Falling average selling price (ASP) Navigation is becoming a necessity as the road infrastructure is developing very quickly

Navigation revenue will increase by 5X from 2011 to 2018a gat o e e ue c ease by 5 o 0 to 0 8Leading Tier 1 navigation suppliers include: Denso, Aisin AW, Continental, Desay, Delphi and Harman

Premium Audio

Premium audio systems is a rapidly growing audio segmentMost luxury autos are sold with premium and branded audio


Audio Systems

Most luxury autos are sold with premium and branded audioLeading premium audio suppliers are: Bose, Harman, XBM, Alpine, Dynaudio and Fender

China OEM Head-Unit Sales

25

15

20

10

15

#MAudioAudio/VideoNavi

5

02011 2012 2013 2015 2018


Source: IMS Research, June 2012

China OEM Head-Unit Revenue

4500

5000

3000

3500

4000

2000

2500

3000

$MAudioAudio/VideoNavi

500

1000

1500

02011 2012 2013 2015 2018


Source: IMS Research, June 2012

China Telematics Success FactorsIssues Key Information

Business Models

Flexible business models are most important factor for the future development of in-vehicle telematicsModels p

Useful telematics services

Current hot telematics services are: Downloadable navigation route from call centerReal-time traffic informationInternet musicInternet musicUp-to-date POI informationSafety & security (eCall & bCall)

New popular services are expected to emergeEV telematics required for EVsEV telematics required for EVsInsurance telematics?

Reasonable subscription fee

Telematics service fees will decline for fixed servicesTo retain same service fee, telematics features and functionality must continue to growfunctionality must continue to growPay per use services will be required

Payment Methods

Telematics services need more flexible payment methods instead of fixed yearly service feesFlexible payment via vehicle based SIM card or the users’


Flexible payment via vehicle-based SIM card or the users cell phone bill are emerging

China Telematics TrendsSegment Key Information

Standalone Telematics

Telematics unit is separate from head-unit (OnStar-type)Leading telematics system in 2011 with 400K units soldTelematics

Systemsg y

GM OnStar accounting for 70% of the totalToyota G-Book and Nissan CARWINGS were next

Embedded Telematics

Telematics unit is part of head-unitShipments are projected to grow from 200K units in 2012 toTelematics

SystemsShipments are projected to grow from 200K units in 2012 to nearly 1.9 million units in 2019Most high-end and luxury light vehicles are forecasted to choose embedded systems over the other two types of systems

Connected Telematics unit uses driver phone as data pipe (Sync-type)Connected Telematics Systems

Telematics unit uses driver phone as data pipe (Sync type)Only 9K units were shipped in 2011

Mainly GM's eMotion systems in the Chevrolet EpicaThis segment will become the dominant segment by 2019

Will reach 7.4M units and 71% telematics market shareeac u ts a d % te e at cs a et s a eThis system will used in entry-level and mid-level light vehicles due to their relatively low cost


Shipments of OEM Telematics Systems

Market Segmentation of OEM In‐vehicle Telematics Systems in ChinaProportions of Market Segmentation ‐ 2011 and 2019; % of Total Shipments

OEM Connected

1%

OEM

OEM Embedded

29%

Standalone11%

OEM Embedded

18%

OEM Standalone

70%

OEM Connected

71%

2011 2019


Source: IMS Research Jun‐12

Fitment Rates of OEM Telematics Systems

Fitment Rates of OEM In‐vehicle Telematics Systems by Type in China

30.0%

25.0%

OE Standalone

OE Embedded

OE Connected

15.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

5.0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Source: IMS Research Jun‐12

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

China Infotainment Summary

Segment Key InformationAudio H-U Audio-only head-units are losing share to multi-function navi &

audio combinationsConnections to music on mobile devices and online sources are growing in importancePremium & Branded Audio head-units is a main growth opportunity

Navigation Navigation functionality is growing in importance due to China’sNavigation Navigation functionality is growing in importance due to China s difficult navigation and traffic environmentHence on-board navigation is a major growth opportunityConnected navigation services is the next growth opportunity

Traffic information is becoming a necessityg yMap and POI updates are similarly crucial servicesDestination downloads from websites is another opportunity

Telematics Telematics are at the beginning of a major growth cycleConnected telematics via driver’s mobile phone is just emerging,Connected telematics via driver s mobile phone is just emerging, but will become the leading approach by 2015Embedded modem-based telematics (standalone or H-U systems) are the current leaders and further strong growth is forecastedTelematics technology will be required to support connected


gy q ppnavigation systems and the many other functions of the emerging cloud connected car








Apps Head-Unit & HMI2005-2010 2015-2020

Optional 10-20 Apps

OEM ChosenDriver Chosen

Head-UnitFi d F i

Navigation

Apps Head-Unit

Built-in Head-Unit Apps

Digital Radio & MP3 PlFixed Function

Design

Smartphone A I t tiRadio CD Music

Software-based Platform Design

& MP3 Player

Main HMIApps Integration

SoftwareRadio

ReceiverCD Music

Player

Smartphone 1000s of

•Natural speech•Multi-touch gesturing display

• ICD HMI overlapMain HMIS it h K b Smartphone

Apps

3G-4G Com

1000s of Car Apps

p•Text-to-Speech•SWC

•Switches-Knobs•Center display•Rotary haptic•SWCLi it d h


Link & Data Plan•Limited speech

IVI Apps CategoriesIVI Apps

• Downloaded apps• Driver chosen



Smartphone Apps & Content

HTML5 AppsHMI API tailored

SP Apps Integration• Native SP Apps• HTML5 SP Apps

Native AppsHMI API tailored

IVI HMI Software Platform

• HTML5 SP Apps


• Auto OEM specific • Genivi• Microsoft • QNX• Android


IVI Hardware Platform• Atom, ARM, MIPS, others?

Android


, , ,IVI HMI Hardware

• Input, Output & Control

2020 Cloud Connected Car

CLOUD: Classic Internet, Wireless Internet, Entertainment Internet, Social Internet

Content Networks Communication Network Safety/eCall Networks

3.5/4G Cellular

802.11 Wi-Fi

LBS: GPS & others

Broadcast Data

Broadcast Digital Audio

Broadcast Digital Video

Connected Car• Multiple communication links• Software platform architecture• Re-usable software components

Other V2V CarsS f V2V A

USB V2VMobile DevicesA i i • Re-usable software components

• Millions of lines of software code• Gigabytes of RAM, Flash & SSD• 200+ sensors & actuators• Remote software upgrades

• Safety V2V Apps• Ad-hoc networkBluetooth

Wi-Fi

• Apps integration• Smartphones• Tablets

802.11p & WAVE Network

Remote software upgrades• ECU domain clusters

Road a Infrastr ct re & Information Net orkV2I 802.11p & WAVE


Roadway Infrastructure & Information NetworkConsumer/commercial usage Roadway info, events, warnings, guidance

Back Haul Network

Questions?Questions?

Egil Juliussen, Principal Analyst, Infotainment and ADASInfotainment and ADAS

Michael Liu, Senior AnalystOctober 10, 2012

Documents

HMI & Apps: Perspectives for Genivi · HMI Trends Trends Comments Speech • Speech recognition as control input • Text -to-speech for output info • Telematics HFI, Navi, others