MARKET UPDATE

DECEMBER

2015

Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave.

Sidney, BC V8L 1X9

250-656-0911

WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2012 372 497 570 586 659 637 523 462 419 373 366 283

2013 294 394 483 615 659 664 583 540 487 512 412 355

2014 342 412 575 664 714 680 681 609 565 602 465 389

2015 351 542 734 840 905 910 796 741 704 734 573

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000N

um

ber

of

Sale

s

Monthly Sales Comparison Greater Victoria - (2012-2015)

573

Historically, November in the Greater Victoria Area marks the beginning of the winter cooling period in our real estate market. This year is no different, sales have dropped

from October’s 734 sales to only 573. However, even with this dramatic drop in sales relative to October, November has still not seen sales figures this high since 2009. Overall, 2015 has been a banner year here in the capital area with total annual sales already reach-ing 7,830. We still have one more month left in 2015 and we have already surpassed the annual sales numbers for every year going back to 2009. It is predicted that over 4 billion dollars of real estate will transact here in the Greater Victoria Area this year. Looking back, 2007 was the only other year we have ever recorded total sales values over 4 billion!

Active listing numbers have also dropped significantly from last year. At the end of Novem-ber, there were a total of 2,952 MLS listing available. This compared with 3,631 from this same period in 2014. With only four months of inventory according to the absorption rate, we are certainly experiencing a “Sellers Market”.

The benchmark price for a single family home in the Greater Victoria Area was $517,900 in October, up from $477,000 this same time last year. Condos and Townhouses are up as well compared to this time last year with benchmark prices of $304,200 and $415,400. On the peninsula, the September benchmark price for a single family home in each was $676,400 in North Saanich, $474,800 in Sidney, and $531,700 in Central Saanich. In the luxury segment, there were 24 sales in the $1M to $2M price range, but only one other sale above $2M for approximately $3.8M in Uplands.

2015’s lower inventory, high consumer confidence, rising prices and ease of financing have all contributed to it being a stellar year. We hope you have a wonderful holiday season!

CAPITAL REGION SALES

An absorption rate is the rate at which avail-able homes are in a specific market area during a given period of time.

This is calculated by dividing the average number of sales into the number of homes currently on the market.

The rate shows how many months it will take to exhaust the supply of homes. A value be-tween 5 and 6 months is considered to indi-cate a healthy, balanced market. A value over 6 is considered a Buyers market, and values under 5 are generally a Sellers market.M

ON

TH

S O

F IN

VE

NT

OR

Y

6

5

4

3

7

8

BALANCED

BUYERMARKET

SELLERMARKET

HOW TO INTERPRET ABSORPTION RATES

8.5 9.1

9.4 9.8 10.0

9.4 8.9 8.8

9.2 9.5 9.7 9.6

10.6

11.5 11.9

11.2 10.5

9.3

8.4

7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.4

7.9

9.0 9.3

9.6

9.2

8.3

7.4

6.6 6.5 6.1 6.0

5.8

6.6 7.2 7.3 7.1

6.4

5.6 5.0

4.5 4.3 4.0 4.0

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Mon

ths

of Inv

ento

ry

Absorption Rate Greater Victoria Area - (2012-2015)

2012 2013 2014 2015

SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED

North Saanich Central Saanich SidneyListed Sold Listed Sold Listed Sold

$0 – $499K 4 0 1 4 9 7

$500K – $799K 16 5 19 13 9 1

$800K – $999K 6 0 9 0 0 0

$1000K – $1999K 17 2 10 0 1 0

$2000K + 9 0 10 0 3 0

CONDOS & TOWNHOMES

PENINSULA Listed Sold

$0 – $199K 12 4

$200K – $399K 51 5

$400K – $799K 30 4

$800K – $999K 4 0

$1000K + 1 1

MANUFACTURED

PENINSULA Listed Sold

$0 – $99K 2 0

$100K – $149K 5 2

$150K – $199K 2 1

$200K – $249K 0 2

$250K + 2 2

SFD WATERFRONT

PENINSULA Listed Sold

$0 – $999K 5 1

$1000K – $1499K 8 1

$1500K – $1999K 3 0

$2000K – $2999K 6 0

$3000K + 7 0

LOTS & LAND

PENINSULA Listed Sold

$0 – $299K 3 0

$300K – $499K 22 3

$500K – $699K 4 1

$700K – $999K 9 0

$1000K + 8 0

“Listed” : The number of MLS listings presently on the market at the end of the month indicated.“Sold” : The number of MLS listings with unconditional offers in the month indicated.

PENINSULAINVENTORY VS SALES

(By Price Range) - November 2015

8.5 9.1

9.4 9.8 10.0

9.4 8.9 8.8

9.2 9.5 9.7 9.6

10.6

11.5 11.9

11.2 10.5

9.3

8.4

7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.4

7.9

9.0 9.3

9.6

9.2

8.3

7.4

6.6 6.5 6.1 6.0

5.8

6.6 7.2 7.3 7.1

6.4

5.6 5.0

4.5 4.3 4.0 4.0

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

Septem

ber

October

Novem

ber

Decem

berM

onth

s of

Invento

ry

Absorption Rate Greater Victoria Area - (2012-2015)

2012 2013 2014 2015

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Active Listings / Number of Sales Greater Victoria - (last 24 months)

Active Listings Number of Sales

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2012 372 497 570 586 659 637 523 462 419 373 366 283

2013 294 394 483 615 659 664 583 540 487 512 412 355

2014 342 412 575 664 714 680 681 609 565 602 465 389

2015 351 542 734 840 905 910 796 741 704 734 573

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Num

ber

of

Sale

s Monthly Sales Comparison

Greater Victoria - (2012-2015)

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

3.66

n/a

3.33

n/a

1.45

3.67

1.91

0.83

2.43

5.00

3.33 3.33

Absorption Rates - Saanich Peninsula November 2015

North Saanich Sidney Central Saanich

1.58

0.56

1.57 1.38

3.89

1.32

1.75

2.43

3.66

1.45

6.07

2.08

2.56

5.67

7.25

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

Month

s of

Invento

ry

Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached November 2015

2.53

3.85 3.13

5.38

3.14 3.37 3.02

5.00

3.67

12.75

2.47

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Month

s of

Invento

ry

Absorption Rates - Condominiums November 2015

INF

3.14

8.33

0.00

5.00

2.31 1.59

2.07

3.33 3.33

1.91

4.25

2.41

15.63

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

Month

s of

Invento

ry

Absorption Rates - Townhouses November 2015

2.92

3.33

0.83

3.16

6.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Month

s of

Invento

ry

Absorption Rates - Manufactured Homes November 2015