Holt Algebra 1 10-5 Experimental Probability 10-5 Experimental Probability Holt Algebra 1 Warm Up Warm Up Lesson Presentation Lesson Presentation Lesson

Holt Algebra 1

10-5 Experimental Probability10-5 Experimental Probability

Holt Algebra 1

Warm UpWarm Up

Lesson PresentationLesson Presentation

Lesson QuizLesson Quiz

Holt Algebra 1

10-5 Experimental Probability

Warm Up: Part IWrite the equivalent percent.

1. 2.

3. 4.

Write the equivalent fraction.

25%30%

16%

5.

7.

6.

8.

50% 10%

40% 35%

20%

Holt Algebra 1


Warm Up: Part IIWrite the equivalent decimal.

9. 18% 10. 50%

11. 12.

0.50.18

0.90.2

Holt Algebra 1


Determine the experimental probability of an event.

Use experimental probability to make predictions.

Objectives

Holt Algebra 1


experiment experimental probabilitytrial prediction outcomesample spaceeventprobability

Vocabulary

Holt Algebra 1


An experiment is an activity involving chance. Each repetition or observation of an experiment is a trial, and each possible result is an outcome. The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes.

Holt Algebra 1


Example 1: Identifying Sample Spaces and Outcomes

Identify the sample space and the outcome shown for each experiment.

A. Rolling a number cube

Sample space:{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Outcome shown: 4

B. Spinning a spinner

Sample space:{red, green, orange, purple}

Outcome shown: green

Holt Algebra 1


Check It Out! Example 1

Identify the sample space and the outcome shown for the experiment: rolling a number cube.

Sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Outcome shown: 3

Holt Algebra 1


An event is an outcome or set of outcomes in an experiment. Probability is the measure of how likely an event is to occur. Probabilities are written as fractions or decimals from 0 to 1, or as percents from 0% to 100%.

Holt Algebra 1


ImpossibleAs likely as not

Certain

Unlikely Likely

0%Events with a probability of

0% never happen.

50%Events with a

probability of 50% have the same

chance of happening as not.

100%Events with a probability of 100% always

happen.

Holt Algebra 1


Example 2: Estimating the Likelihood of an Event

Write impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain to describe each event.

A. A shoe selected from a pair of shoes fits the right foot. as likely as not

B. Katrina correctly guesses the last digit of a phone number. unlikely

C. Max pulls a green marble from a bag of all green marbles. certain

D. A randomly selected month contains the letter R.likely

Holt Algebra 1


Check It Out! Example 2

Write impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain to describe the event:

Anthony rolls a number less than 7 on a standard number cube.

The highest number on a standard number cube is 6. Thus it is certain the number will be less than 7.

Holt Algebra 1


You can estimate the probability of an event by performing an experiment. The experimental probability of an event is the ratio of the number of times the event occurs to the number of trials. The more trials performed, the more accurate the estimate will be.

Holt Algebra 1


Holt Algebra 1


Example 3A: Finding Experimental Probability

Outcome Frequency

Green 15

Orange 10

Purple 8

Pink 7

An experiment consists of spinning a spinner. Use the results in the table to find the experimental probability of the event.

Spinner lands on orange

Holt Algebra 1


Example 3B: Finding Experimental Probability

Outcome Frequency

Green 15

Orange 10

Purple 8

Pink 7

An experiment consists of spinning a spinner. Use the results in the table to find the experimental probability of the event.

Spinner does not land on green

Holt Algebra 1


Check It Out! Example 3a

An experiment consists of spinning a spinner. Use the results in the table to find the experimental probability of each event.

Spinner lands on red

Outcome Frequency

Red 7

Blue 8

Green 5

Holt Algebra 1


Check It Out! Example 3b

Spinner does not land on red

An experiment consists of spinning a spinner. Use the results in the table to find the experimental probability of each event.

Outcome Frequency

Red 7

Blue 8

Green 5

Holt Algebra 1


You can use experimental probability to make predictions. A prediction is an estimate or guess about something that has not yet happened.

Holt Algebra 1


Example 4A: Quality Control Application

A manufacturer inspects 500 strollers and finds that 498 have no defects.

What is the experimental probability that a stroller chosen at random has no defects?

Find the experimental probability that a stroller has no defects.

= 99.6%

The experimental probability that a stroller has no defects is 99.6%.

Holt Algebra 1


Example 4B: Manufacturing Application

A manufacturer inspects 500 strollers and finds that 498 have no defects.

The manufacturer shipped 3500 strollers to a distribution center. Predict the number of strollers that are likely to have no defects.

Find 99.6% of 3500.

0.996(3500) = 3486

The prediction is that 3486 strollers will have no defects.

Holt Algebra 1


Check It Out! Example 4a

A manufacturer inspects 1500 electric toothbrush motors and finds 1497 have no defects. What is the experimental probability that a motor chosen at random will have no defects?

Find the experimental probability that a motor has no defects.

= 99.8%

Holt Algebra 1


Check It Out! Example 4b

A manufacturer inspects 1500 electric toothbrush motors and finds 1497 have no defects. There are 35,000 motors in a warehouse. Predict the number of motors that are likely to have no defects.

Find 99.8% of 35,000.

0.998(35000) = 34930

The prediction is that 34,930 motors will have no defects.

Holt Algebra 1


1. Identify the sample space and the outcome shown for selecting a marble.

Lesson Quiz: Part I

Sample space: {red, green, yellow}

Outcome shown: red

Holt Algebra 1


Lesson Quiz: Part II

2. An experiment consists of spinning a spinner. Use the results in the table to find the

experimental probability of landing on blue.

Outcome Frequency

Red 9

Blue 6

Yellow 5

Holt Algebra 1


Lesson Quiz: Part III

3. The neighbors’ dog barked at Tana the last 4 out of 5 times she walked by their house.

a. What is the experimental probability that the dog barks at Tana when she walks past the house? 80%

b. Predict the number of times the dog will bark at Tana if she walks past the house 45 times.36

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Holt Algebra 1 10-5 Experimental Probability 10-5 Experimental Probability Holt Algebra 1 Warm Up Warm Up Lesson Presentation Lesson Presentation Lesson