Holt Winters Multiplicative Anual Allyson 40 MESES Nao Csest Pia Dois Parametros Beta

8/16/2019 Holt Winters Multiplicative Anual Allyson 40 MESES Nao Csest Pia Dois Parametros Beta

1/15

slope trend seasonal0.046875 6.132813

alpha gamma delta 1.2914930.50 0.2 0.2 1.732965

1.302341

1.231735FORMULAS ESTATÍSTICAS NÃO MEXER 1.049919

PREENCHER COM VALORES ENTRE 0.2 E 0.9 PREF USAR SOLVER! 0.827475PREENCHER COM VALORE "E SIM 0.454263

PREENCHER COM VALORES "E NÃO 0.608875

0.9080790.809746

SIM NÃO PREVISAO SIM PREVISAO NÃO MÊS 0.722583 yt2 yt previsao yt2 previsão y2 t 1.066393

27 8 0.048344 6.187035 1.291819 17 36 ! 2 0.405784 8.022578 1.81017616 17 21 " # 0.868289 10.74089 1.35842128 8 13 $ " 0.356862 9.052041 1.16214330 5 14 $ #0.107801 7.085587 0.98106732 3 14 % & #0.443031 5.301636 0.77515338 1 17 " % #0.708755 3.529987 0.42006835 1 23 ! #0.826641 2.231803 0.57671430 10 25 ' ( 0.134069 6.208708 1.04859233 5 24 $ ' 0.117269 6.258777 0.80757230 0 26 $ #0.520336 3.188023 0.57806729 0 25 2 #0.787105 1.333844 0.853115

23 8 25 ' # #0.222487 3.369825 1.50824224 13 19 " " 0.180941 5.16448 1.95157929 4 22 ( $ #0.059141 4.145009 1.2797428 8 27 $ & 0.220655 5.48485 1.22142723 11 38 & % 0.771333 8.458893 1.04493522 10 28 ( ! 1.138378 11.06545 0.80086521 6 23 ( ( 1.346337 13.24362 0.42666419 12 20 & 2' 1.968096 17.69876 0.59697425 8 16 2 0.764339 13.64807 0.95610626 10 18 $ 22 0.561378 13.3976 0.79533828 14 21 2# 1.587345 19.08882 0.60913619 23 23

2" 2.215733 23.8181 0.87562219 26 19 22 2$ 1.336211 21.63622 1.446931

15 29 16 #" 2& 0.524944 18.9161 1.867881

17 27 15 #% 2% 0.690644 20.26954 1.290201

19 28 17 2& 2! 0.887025 21.94209 1.232359

20 22 23 2% 2( 0.709508 21.94153 1.036481

24 18 20 2# #' 0.691974 22.56337 0.800243

31 11 22 ! # 0.944582 24.51839 0.43106

FORMULAS ARRASTAR PARA $AIXO SE TIVER MAIS "A"OS!

PE%AN"O "A &LTIMA LINHA

SE FOR PRO'ETAR "EVE SER TRAVAR O &LTIMO VALORCONHECI"O "E SLOP E TEN"


2/15

35 9 28 ' #2 #0.09411 20.26951 0.566382

38 6 31 2 ## #1.484104 13.22543 0.855619

29 12 36 #" #1.149444 13.41462 0.81518

26 15 33 ( #$ 0.086542 18.44511 0.649954

28 18 28 #& 0.289058 19.54423 0.884695

31 11 26 % #% #0.934041 13.71779 1.31792132 8 26 ! #! #1.784123 8.53334 1.681804

33 3 30 2 #( #2.226523 4.537218 1.164401

29 9 35 2 "' #1.727286 4.806881 1.3603543 #43 #46 253 51

51 249 246 2

)AN *EV MAR1 1 1 2013 8 17 172 2 2 2014 8 13 43 3 3 2015 26 29 274 4 4 2016 11 8 3

4

1.335072 2.815006 2.7933250.774779 1.253327 0.3839041.431808 1.592905 1.4792411.468196 1.06114 0.395469

1.252464 1.680595 1.262985+2("(# +%#2(&$ +#'2#"

'+'"&!%$ &+#2!#

()*+, ,(-/-, ,, *


3/15

),,) ,(-/


4/15

1

9 23 3

#7 4#6 5#4 6#3 70 8

10 90 10

#5 11#1 12

8 139 14

#5 153 165 171 18

#3 196 20

#3 21#5 223 23

12 244 25

#5 26

#10 27

2 28

#5 29

#5 30

#7 31

0 10 200

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


5/15

#1 32

#6 33

1 34

6 35

7 36

#6 37#10 38

#9 39

7 404142434445

4647

48

#0.25641

A,R MAI )-N )-. A/O SE0 O-0 NOV 1E8 5 3 1 1 10 5 0 08 11 10 6 12 8 10 14 23

28 22 18 11 9 6 12 15 189

1.304459 0.809102 0.481807 0.159402 0.15822 1.570552 0.779537 0 00.764369 1.046322 0.946979 0.565676 1.126375 0.747627 0.930458 1.296984 2.1215471.530098 1.199148 0.978621 0.596526 0.486829 0.323732 0.64583 0.805257 0.9638821.17912

1.194511 1.018191 0.802469 0.440535 0.590475 0.880637 0.785275 0.700747 1.028476+2#%#$ +'"((( '+!2%"%$ '+"$"2 '+&'!!%$ '+('!'%( '+!'(%"& '+%22$!# +'&(#

(- ( * ,) ,,(


6/15

-, (-:-; 2.5


7/15

alpha0.50

yt2 yt previsao previsão27

19 #&16 228 #30 "32 "38 %35 2#30 2$33 2"30 2&29 2$

23 2$24 (29 2228 2%23 #!22 2!21 2#19 2'25 &26 !28 219

2#19 (

15 &

17 $

19 %

20 2#

24 2'

31 22

30 40 50 60

*,:(-(

-


8/15

35 2!

38 #

29 #&

26 ##

28 2!

31 2&32 2&

33 #'

29 #$"#"#"&$#$

$"(

"&

3enter o4 avgyearly avg t /,(,(

6.25 6.5 12 1 1 110.58 18.5 12 2 2 218.42 30.5 12 3 3 37.75 38.5 4 4 4 4

)-/* 7.75 38.54

5666 spe3i4i3 seasonal inde7es

5666 ra8 seasonals 5666 normali9ed seasonals


9/15


10/15

slope trend seasonal#0.661458 30.57031

gamma delta 1.8298570.2 0.2 1.738224

1.819722

3.1137382.7953122.931062

3.340373.167163

3.1272713.136414

MÊS 2.967352 t 2.664104

#2.176819 22.33205 1.70569 1

2 #3.099272 15.54297 1.635063 #17 2# #3.464386 10.61812 1.757149 #5 3" #3.280519 8.073072 3.184655 15 4$ #2.686549 7.762404 3.009206 16 5& #2.10238 7.9967 3.145179 18 6% #1.554213 8.635153 3.552419 21 7! #1.157217 9.06592 3.305852 12 8( #0.988785 8.750866 3.187463 5 9

' #0.712836 9.141827 3.231087 9 10 #0.544732 9.269507 3.021165 4 112 #0.328664 9.805117 2.722811 4 12

# 0.072118 11.48036 1.765236 #2 13" 0.384704 13.11541 1.674032 5 14$ 0.685093 15.00206 1.792333 7 15& #0.004406 12.23966 3.005253 1 16% #0.46361 9.939232 2.870177 #15 17! #0.711689 8.235227 3.050434 #6 18( #0.872896 6.717501 3.467168 #2 192' #0.882619 5.795994 3.300307 #1 202 #0.589633 6.378302 3.333878 9 2122 #0.363817 6.917748 3.336559 8 222# #0.092416 7.910939 3.124813 7 23

2" #0.17646 7.398303 2.69188 #4 242$ 0.177699 8.992637 1.834757 0 25

2& 0.156706 9.065369 1.670155 #1 26

2% 0.182983 9.353461 1.797368 2 27

2! #0.138435 7.929353 2.883434 2 28

2( #0.220706 7.379564 2.838179 #3 29

#' #0.149818 7.513296 3.079214 4 30

# 0.007935 8.152246 3.534261 9 31


11/15

#2 0.252424 9.382627 3.386305 7 32

## 0.428733 10.51659 3.38977 7 33

#" 0.203359 9.818458 3.259972 #7 34

#$ 0.033227 9.171158 3.066845 #7 35

#& 0.152954 9.803018 2.724757 0 36

#% 0.846954 13.42597 1.929597 5 37#! 1.335651 16.71641 1.718981 6 38

#( 1.366463 18.20612 1.80041 3 39

"' 0.414949 14.81502 2.698242 #6 404142434445

4647

48

2.820513

)AN *EV MAR A,R MAI )-N )-. A/O SE02013 27 19 16 28 30 32 38 35 302014 23 24 29 28 23 22 21 19 252015 19 15 17 19 20 24 31 35 382016 31 32 33 29

0.942117 0.661889 0.556471 4.565605 4.854614 5.139272 6.057285 5.537701 4.7116560.972152 1.012413 1.220919 2.675292 2.187763 2.083354 1.979867 1.783427 2.3363351.046322 0.823916 0.931374 1.038281 1.090135 1.304828 1.681118 1.893224 2.0503024.137643 4.24456 4.350154 3.799386

1.774559 1.685695 1.76473 3.019641 2.710837 2.842485 3.239424 3.071451 3.032764+!2(!$% +%#!22" +!(%22 #+#%#! 2+%($#2 2+(#'&2 #+#"'#% #+&% #+2%2%

6'+&&"$! #'+$%'#

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12/15

),,) ,(-/-, (-:-; 2.5


13/15


14/15

3enter o4 avgO-0 NOV 1E yearly avg t /,(,(

33 30 29 28.92 6.5 1226 28 19 23.92 18.5 1229 26 28 25.08 30.5 12

31.25 38.5 4

)-/* 7.75 38.5

5.144945 4.643289 4.4561822.419191 2.593969 1.7525821.560757 1.395778 1.499372 5666 spe3i4i3 seasonal inde7es

3.041631 2.877679 2.569379 5666 ra8 seasonals#+#&"" 2+(&%#$2 2+&&"'" 5666 normali9ed seasonals


15/15

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Holt Winters Multiplicative Anual Allyson 40 MESES Nao Csest Pia Dois Parametros Beta