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Going nowhere or moving on ? How do changes in species distribution
impact marine food webs? Indo a lugar nenhum ou passar ?
Como as mudanças na distribuição das espécies impactar teias alimentares marinhas ?
Coleen Moloney et al. Marine Research Institute
University of Cape Town, SOUTH AFRICA
With thanks to: • Many colleagues
(on whose work I have based this presentation)
• Symposium Organisers and Session Convenor (for financial support and the invitation to speak)
• Google Translate (for the Portuguese text in my slides)
Com agradecimentos a: • Meus colegas
(em cujo trabalho Baseei esta apresentação)
• Simpósio Organizadores e Session Convenor (para apoio financeiro e ao convite para falar)
• Traduz Google (Peço desculpas se algumas das traduções não fazem sentido !)
Sessão 9 Impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre a capacidade de suporte do ecossistema via
deslocalizações espaciais comida web
Session 9 Impact of climate change on ecosystem carrying
capacity via food web spatial relocations
• Observed changes in species distributions across functional groups or trophic levels
• Southern African perspective, coastal ocean • Three case studies • Reflections on key points
• As mudanças observadas na distribuição de espécies entre grupos funcionais ou níveis tróficos
• Perspectiva do Sul Africano, oceano litoral • Três estudos de caso • Alguns pensamentos sobre pontos-chave
STRUCTURE OF THE TALK
• Observed changes in species distributions across functional groups or trophic levels
• Southern African perspective, coastal ocean • Three case studies • Reflections on key points
• As mudanças observadas na distribuição de espécies entre grupos funcionais ou níveis tróficos
• Perspectiva do Sul Africano, oceano litoral • Três estudos de caso • Alguns pensamentos sobre pontos-chave
STRUCTURE OF THE TALK
• Observed changes in species distributions across functional groups or trophic levels
• Southern African perspective, coastal ocean • Three case studies • Reflections on key points
• As mudanças observadas na distribuição de espécies entre grupos funcionais ou níveis tróficos
• Perspectiva do Sul Africano, oceano litoral • Três estudos de caso • Alguns pensamentos sobre pontos-chave
STRUCTURE OF THE TALK
• Observed changes in species distributions across functional groups or trophic levels
• Southern African perspective, coastal ocean • Three case studies • Reflections on key points
• As mudanças observadas na distribuição de espécies entre grupos funcionais ou níveis tróficos
• Perspectiva do Sul Africano, oceano litoral • Três estudos de caso • Alguns pensamentos sobre pontos-chave
STRUCTURE OF THE TALK
© Peter Ryan
Observed changes in species distributions As mudanças observadas na distribuição de espécies
Richardson (2008) ICES Journal of Marine Science 65: 279–295 (after Beaugrand)
Northward shifts of copepod assemblages, North Atlantic
Warm temperate
Subarctic
1958-1981
Northward turnos de assembléias de copépodes , Atlântico Norte
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Temperado quente
Subártico
Mean number of species per sample / Número de espécies
por amostra média
Richardson (2008) ICES Journal of Marine Science 65: 279–295 (after Beaugrand)
Northward shifts of copepod assemblages, North Atlantic
Warm temperate
Subarctic
1958-1981 1982-1999
Mean number of species per sample / Número de espécies
por amostra média
Northward turnos de assembléias de copépodes , Atlântico Norte
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Temperado quente
Subártico
Richardson (2008) ICES Journal of Marine Science 65: 279–295 (after Beaugrand)
Northward shifts of copepod assemblages, North Atlantic
Warm temperate
Subarctic
1958-1981 1982-1999 2000-2002
Mean number of species per sample / Número de espécies
por amostra média
Northward turnos de assembléias de copépodes , Atlântico Norte
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Temperado quente
Subártico
Atlantic cod Gadus morhua
Perry et al. (2005) Science 308 (5730): 1912-1915
Snake blenny Lumpenus
lampretaeformis
Anglerfish Lophius
piscatorius
Ranges of northward shifts in mean latitudes, North Sea Intervalos de turnos para o norte em latitudes médias, Mar do Norte
Relationship between mean latitude and bottom temperature
Perry et al. (2005) Science 308 (5730): 1912-1915
Relação entre a média latitude e temperatura inferior M
ean
latit
ude
(˚N
)
Winter bottom temperature (˚C) (5-year running mean)
Atlantic cod Gadus morhua
Snake blenny Lumpenus
lampretaeformis
Anglerfish Lophius piscatorius
6 7 8 6 7 8 6 7 8
Temperatura do inverno inferior (C) ( 5 anos média em execução)
Changes in mean latitudes of demersal fishes, chondrichthyans and cephalopods on the west coast of South Africa, 1985–2010
equatorward poleward
Lepidopus caudatus Raja straeleni Holohalaelurus regani Brama brama Caelorinchus bramasimorhynchus Trachurus capensis Raja wallacei Loligo vulgaris Sufflogobius bibarbatus Caelorinchus braueri
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10
Yemane et al. (2014) Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 24:463–483
Mudanças nas latitudes médias de peixes demersais, condropterígeos e cefalópodes , na costa oeste da África do Sul , 1985-2010
Hazen et al. (2012) Nature Climate Change DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1686
Predicted mean (+/-SD) habitat change (2001-2100, N. Pacific)
Previsto mudança habitat médio (2001-2100, N. Pacifico)
% Change in core habitat data from Tagging of Pacific Predators Project
© Peter Ryan
What happens to marine food webs when some species leave or new
species arrive?
O que acontece com teias alimentares quando algumas espécies sair ou
novas espécies chegam
Three dramas 1. Benthic, subtidal ecosystem 2. Pelagic upwelling ecosystem 3. Bentho-pelagic upwelling
ecosystem
The eye of a SYSTEMS modeller - simplify O olho de um modelador SYSTEMS - simplificar
Three dramas 1. Benthic, subtidal ecosystem 2. Pelagic upwelling ecosystem 3. Bentho-pelagic upwelling
ecosystem
Impact of Rock Lobsters
Lead actor Rock Lobster Supporting actors Macrophyte algae Abalone Urchins Cast Scavengers Sessile animals Other gastropods Encrusting coralline algae
Location: SW coast of South Africa
Cape Town
Cape Point Cape
Hangklip
-34.0
-34.4
-34.8
18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0
˚S
˚E
Southwest coast of South Africa
40km
Cape Town
Cape Point Cape
Hangklip
-34.0
-34.4
-34.8
18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0
˚S
˚E
Southwest coast of South Africa
Kelp Ecklonia maxima 40km
Cape Town
Cape Point Cape
Hangklip
-34.0
-34.4
-34.8
18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0
˚S
˚E
40km
Southwest coast of South Africa
Rock lobster Jasus lalandi Kelp
Ecklonia maxima
Juvenile abalone shelter under sea urchins for protection from predators
Abrigo abalone juvenil sob ouriços do mar para proteção contra predadores
Blamey and Branch (2012) Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 420–421: 33–47
Scavengers
Sessile animals
Other gastropods
Abalone
Rock lobsters ABSENT
Macroalgae Encrusting coralline algae
Urchins
Lagostas ABSENT
Scavengers
Sessile animals
Other gastropods
Abalone
Rock lobsters ABSENT
Macroalgae Encrusting coralline algae
Urchins
Lagostas ABSENT
Blamey and Branch (2012) Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 420–421: 33–47
Grazing/ Pastando Interactions
Scavengers
Sessile animals
Other gastropods
Abalone
Rock lobsters ABSENT
Macroalgae Encrusting coralline algae
Urchins
Lagostas ABSENT
Blamey and Branch (2012) Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 420–421: 33–47
Grazing/ Pastando Settlement/ Liquidação
Interactions
Scavengers
Sessile animals
Other gastropods
Abalone
Rock lobsters ABSENT
Macroalgae Encrusting coralline algae
Urchins
Lagostas ABSENT
Blamey and Branch (2012) Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 420–421: 33–47
Grazing/ Pastando
Removal/ Remoção Settlement/ Liquidação
Interactions
Scavengers
Sessile animals
Other gastropods
Abalone
Rock lobsters ABSENT
Macroalgae Encrusting coralline algae
Urchins
Lagostas ABSENT
Blamey and Branch (2012) Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 420–421: 33–47
Facilitation/ Facilitação
Grazing/ Pastando
Removal/ Remoção Settlement/ Liquidação
Interactions
Scavengers
Sessile animals
Other gastropods
Abalone
Rock lobsters ABSENT
Macroalgae Encrusting coralline algae
Urchins
Lagostas ABSENT Rock lobsters PRESENT
Lagostas PRESENTE
Blamey and Branch (2012) Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 420–421: 33–47
Facilitation/ Facilitação
Grazing/ Pastando
Removal/ Remoção Settlement/ Liquidação
Interactions
Scavengers
Sessile animals
Other gastropods
Abalone
Rock lobsters ABSENT
Macroalgae Encrusting coralline algae
Urchins
Lagostas ABSENT
No Urchins
Rock lobsters PRESENT Lagostas PRESENTE
Blamey and Branch (2012) Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 420–421: 33–47
Facilitation/ Facilitação
Grazing/ Pastando
Predation/ Predação
Removal/ Remoção Settlement/ Liquidação
Interactions
Scavengers
Sessile animals
Other gastropods
Abalone
Rock lobsters ABSENT
Macroalgae Encrusting coralline algae
Urchins
Lagostas ABSENT
No Urchins
Rock lobsters PRESENT Lagostas PRESENTE
Blamey and Branch (2012) Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 420–421: 33–47
Facilitation/ Facilitação
Grazing/ Pastando
Predation/ Predação
Removal/ Remoção Settlement/ Liquidação
Interactions
Scavengers
Sessile animals
Other gastropods
Abalone
Rock lobsters ABSENT
Macroalgae Encrusting coralline algae
Urchins
Lagostas ABSENT
No Urchins
Rock lobsters PRESENT Lagostas PRESENTE
Blamey and Branch (2012) Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 420–421: 33–47
Facilitation/ Facilitação
Grazing/ Pastando
Predation/ Predação
Removal/ Remoção Settlement/ Liquidação
Interactions
Scavengers
Sessile animals
Other gastropods
Abalone
Rock lobsters ABSENT
Macroalgae Encrusting coralline algae
Urchins
Lagostas ABSENT
No Urchins
Rock lobsters PRESENT Lagostas PRESENTE
Blamey and Branch (2012) Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 420–421: 33–47
Facilitation/ Facilitação
Grazing/ Pastando
Predation/ Predação
Removal/ Remoção
Shading/ Shading
Settlement/ Liquidação
Interactions
Scavengers
Sessile animals
Other gastropods
Abalone
Rock lobsters ABSENT
Macroalgae Encrusting coralline algae
Urchins
Lagostas ABSENT
No Urchins
Rock lobsters PRESENT Lagostas PRESENTE
Competition/ Concorrência
Facilitation/ Facilitação
Grazing/ Pastando
Predation/ Predação
Removal/ Remoção
Shading/ Shading
Settlement/ Liquidação
Interactions
Blamey and Branch (2012) Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 420–421: 33–47
The “Rambo” effect Efeito de "Rambo"
Reflections.... • Trophic cascade (Blamey and Branch 2012) • Interactions strongly affected by fishing • Historical overfishing reduced ecosystem resilience
(Blamey et al. 2014) Algumas reflexões... • Cascata trófica (Blamey and Branch 2012) • Interações fortemente afetada pela pesca • Historical sobrepesca reduziu a resiliência dos
ecossistemas (Blamey et al. 2014)
Predictable in advance using models?
Previsível com antecedência usando modelos ?
Three dramas 1. Benthic, subtidal ecosystem 2. Pelagic upwelling ecosystem 3. Bentho-pelagic upwelling
ecosystem
Lead actors Small pelagic fishes (anchovy and sardine)
Supporting actors Plankton Predators (seabirds) Pelagic fishery Location: Eastern boundary upwelling ecosystem, South
Africa
SOUTHERN BENGUELA
Predators Predadores
Forage Fish Peixe forrageiro
Zooplankton Zooplâncton
Primary producers Produtores primários
Southern Benguela Pelagic Foodweb
Roy et al. (2007) African Journal of Marine Science 29:309
Biom
ass
(‘000
tonn
es)
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Anchovy spawner biomass: west & east of Cape Agulhas
0
20
40
60
80
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
% S
paw
ner
biom
ass
Biomassa spawner anchova: oeste e leste de Cape Agulhas
Mean location of sardine catches: 1987-2004
Note that the coast has been linearized
Fairweather et al. (2006) African Journal of Marine Science 28: 661-680
Local das capturas de sardinha média: 1987-2004
Note-se que a costa foi linearizado
Sardine biomass distribution: 1984-2004
Note that the coast has been linearized
Fairweather et al. (2006) African Journal of Marine Science 28: 661-680
Note-se que a costa foi linearizado
Distribuição de biomassa sardine: 1984-2004
Images: Peter Ryan
Cape Gannets and African Penguin
© Peter Ryan
Crawford et al. (2015) Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 3: Article 10
30
20
10
0 Thou
sand
s of
pai
rs
SOUTH AFRICA
Cape Town
Cape Agulhas
Port Elizabeth
Durban 1978/9
2000
2013
African Penguin
SOUTH AFRICA
Port Elizabeth
Durban
100
50
0 Thou
sand
s of
pai
rs
Images: Peter Ryan Crawford et al. (2015) Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 3: Article 10
1978/9
2000
2013
Cape Gannet
Cape Town
© Peter Ryan
Lambert’s Bay fishing harbour
2012 Cannery converted to potato processing
from http://trawlerheritage.co.za/
1990s purse seine fleet
Jarre, Ragaller, Hutchings (2013). Ecology and Society.
Fábrica de conservas convertido para o processamento de batata
frota de cerco
Reflections.... • Did plankton prey increase / decrease? • Did fish predators decrease / increase? • Are there compensatory mechanisms?
Algumas reflexões... • Será que aumento plâncton presa / diminuir? • Será que os predadores de peixes aumentar /
diminuir? • Existem mecanismos de compensação?
Lots of linkages Lotes de ligações
Predictable in advance using models?
Previsível com antecedência usando modelos ?
Three dramas 1. Inshore, subtidal ecosystem 2. Pelagic upwelling ecosystem 3. Bentho-pelagic upwelling
ecosystem
Lead actors Sardine Bearded goby Supporting actors Jellyfish Horse mackerel Predators (seabirds) Pelagic fishery Location: Eastern boundary upwelling ecosystem,
Namibia
NORTHERN BENGUELA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Catc
h ('0
00 t)
Year
Namibian sardine catch (1950-2003)
Boyer & Boyer (2004) FAO Fisheries Report No. 782
© Hege Vestheim
Bearded Goby Sufflogobius bibarbatus
Diatom mud mat with bearded gobies
© De Beers Marine (Pty) Ltd
Mat lama diatomáceas com góbios barbudos
Sulphidic diatomaceous mud (1-2 mmol Total Sulphide)
Horse mackerel
Tem
paer
taur
e (˚
C) a
nd D
epth
(m)
% O
xygen saturation
10%
0.4%
18˚C 0m
60m
Jellyfish
DAY NIGHT
13˚C 120m
Utne-Palm et al. (2010) Science 329, 333
Benthos / Detritus
Primary producers
Jellyfish Goby
Horse mackerel
Predators
Seabirds Fishery
Sardine
Modified after Roux et al. (2013) Bulletin of Marine Science 89: 249-284
Zooplankton
Pre 1970s – sardine abundant
Benthos / Detritus
Primary producers
Jellyfish Goby
Horse mackerel
Predators
Fishery
Sardine
Modified after Roux et al. (2013) Bulletin of Marine Science 89: 249-284
Zooplankton
Seabirds
Pre 1970s – sardine abundant
Benthos / Detritus
Primary producers
Jellyfish Goby
Horse mackerel
Predators
Seabirds
Fishery
Sardine
Modified after Roux et al. (2013) Bulletin of Marine Science 89: 249-284
Zooplankton
Current – sardine scarce
Benthos / Detritus
Primary producers
Jellyfish Goby
Horse mackerel
Predators
Seabirds
Fishery
Modified after Roux et al. (2013) Bulletin of Marine Science 89: 249-284
Zooplankton
Sardine
The small bottom-feeder triumphs...
Os pequenos triunfos bottom-alimentadores...
Reflections.... • The main interactions have shifted deeper • Bearded goby is a remarkable little beast!
Algumas reflexões... • As principais interações mudaram mais profunda • Goby Bearded é um notável pouco besta !
Were these three outcomes predictable in advance using our current models?
NO / NÃO
Foram estes três resultados previsíveis com antecedência usando nossos modelos atuais ?
Some key aspects required system-specific knowledge
Alguns aspectos do conhecimento específico do sistema exigido
A way forward: • Make system-specific details into globally-
applicable characteristics • Learn from others elsewhere – the comparative
approach
Um caminho a seguir: • Faça detalhes específicos do sistema em
características globalmente aplicáveis • Aprender com os outros em outros lugares - a
abordagem comparativa
Muizenberg Beach, South Africa, Oct 2009
Thank you Obrigado