Homicide Prediction

Robert Dobynes

Ken Lynch

Misty Schutzius

Danelle Tate

Our Prediction

Expected number of Homicides in the City of St. Louis 103

Expected number of homicides in District 5 18

Expected number of homicides in District 6 33

Our Forecast

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

f(x) = − 7.69999999999986 x + 149.7R² = 0.725640353177718

2014 Prediction

Our Forecast

Forecasted Crimes per Capita (10,000) District 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1 1.36 1.68 2.03 2.03 2.20 2.472 0.32 0.70 0.35 0.35 0.18 0.193 2.26 1.95 2.92 2.54 2.34 2.634 5.18 4.34 4.83 2.90 3.87 3.015 17.78 22.92 13.02 13.80 18.41 14.826 6.70 10.81 7.50 8.90 9.18 9.547 8.13 6.58 4.71 4.71 5.03 3.418 9.35 8.60 8.00 4.93 6.17 4.409 2.14 2.09 0.60 2.10 0.90 0.82

Estimated 2014 Population

2014302632

56,289

53,868

48,723

19,671

12,407

34,197

30,263

15,434

31,776

Homicides14

1

13

6

18

33

10

7

3Total 104

Old 9 Districts

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Homicides by District by Year

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Districts

Homicides

New 6 Districts

The key areas of District 5 are now part of District 6

Areas to Watch: District 6

O' Fall

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Penro

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MT/1

70 In

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Mar

k Twain

Waln

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ark

E

North

Poin

te

Baden

Waln

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ark

W

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

District 6 Homicides by Neigh-borhood

2010

2011

2012

2013

Neighborhood

Homicides

Areas to Watch: District 6 – Neighborhood 74 - Baden Baden median real estate prices are $58,583, which is less

expensive than 93.0% of Missouri neighborhoods and 95.4%

of all U.S. neighborhoods.

Most of the residential real estate is renter occupied.

Rents here are currently lower in price then 48.9% of Missouri

neighborhoods.

Vacant apartments or homes are a major fact of life in Baden.

The current real estate vacancy rate here is 24.1%.

This is higher than the rate of vacancies in 90.0% of all U.S.

neighborhoods.

Areas to Watch: District 6 – Neighborhood 74 - Baden

There are more incarcerated people living here than 99.4% of

neighborhoods in the U.S.

3.9% of adults here having earned a bachelor's degree.

This is a lower rate of college graduates found in 96.9% of

America's neighborhoods.

The Baden neighborhood has an income lower than 93.5% of

U.S. neighborhoods.

With 54.9% of the children here below the federal poverty line.

This neighborhood has a higher rate of childhood poverty than

93.3% of U.S. neighborhoods.

Areas to Watch: District 6 – Neighborhood 74 - Baden Median household income in 2011:

Baden: $29,554 - Missouri: $45,247 Average household size:

Baden: 2.4 people - Missouri: 2.5 people Percentage of single-mother households (among all

households):

Baden: 25.2% -Missouri: 9.8% Percentage of population below poverty level:

Baden: 29.2% - Missouri:15.8% Educational Attainment:

Less than High School:

Baden: 32.9% - Missouri: 12.4%

High School or Equivalent:

Baden: 16.9% - Missouri: 31.5%

Areas to Watch: District 5

JeffV

ande

rLou

St. Lo

uis P

lace

Hyde

Park

Colleg

e Hill

Fairgr

ound

O' Fall

on0

2

4

6

8

10

District 5 Homicides by Neigh-borhood

2010

2011

2012

2013

Neighborhoods

Homicides

Areas to Watch: District 5 – Neighborhood 59 – JeffVanDerLou N Grand Blvd / Cass Ave median real estate prices are

$54,216

This is less expensive than 95.7% of Missouri neighborhoods

and 96.6% of all U.S. neighborhoods.

Most of the residential real estate is occupied by a mixture of

owners and renters.

Average rental prices in N Grand Blvd / Cass Ave are currently

$399, based on NeighborhoodScout's exclusive analysis.

Rents here are currently lower in price then 83.1% of Missouri

neighborhoods.

Areas to Watch: District 5 – Neighborhood 59 – JeffVanDerLou The current real estate vacancy rate here is 39.3%.

This is higher than the rate of vacancies in 97.2% of all U.S.

neighborhoods This neighborhood has an income lower than 83.1% of U.S.

neighborhoods. 47.9% of the children here below the federal poverty line, This neighborhood has a higher rate of childhood poverty than

89.6% of U.S. neighborhoods.

There are more people living in the N Grand Blvd / Cass Ave

neighborhood employed as sales and service workers

(39.9%) than almost any neighborhood in the country.

Areas to Watch: District 5 – Neighborhood 59 – JeffVanDerLou 19.9% of this neighborhood's households are run by single

mothers, which is a higher concentration than in 97.0% of

American neighborhoods.

The neighbors in the N Grand Blvd / Cass Ave neighborhood in St.

Louis are lower-middle income, making it a below average income

neighborhood.

Research showed strong statistical correlations among high rates

of children living in single parent households and:

neighborhood crime - particularly violent crime

neighborhood poverty

the percentage of low weight births

rates of infant mortality

Areas to Watch: District 5 – Neighborhood 59 – JeffVanDerLou

Median household income in 2011:

JeffVanderLou: $21,619 - Missouri: $45,247

Average household size:

JeffVanderLou: 2.4 people - Missouri: 2.5 people

Percentage of population below poverty level:

JeffVanderLou: 40.5% - Missouri: 15.8%

Educational Attainment:

Less than High School:

JeffVanderLou: 38.0% - Missouri: 12.4%

High School or Equivalent:

JeffVanderLou: 13.1% - Missouri: 31.5%

Methods of Homicide Prevention

Hot Spot Policing

Drones

Cameras

Job Creation

Education