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FPL ADVISORY GROUP FERGUSON PARTNERS FPL ASSOCIATES Hospitality Leadership Symposium Lessons Learned from the Downturn and Implications for the Future

Hospitality Leadership Symposium - Ferguson Partners · 2013-12-06 · Hospitality Leadership Symposium ... America’s leading hotel companies find diminishing expansion ... learned

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FPL ADVISORY GROUPFERGUSON PARTNERSFPL ASSOCIATES

Hospitality Leadership SymposiumLessons Learned from the Downturn and Implications for the Future

2© 2012, Ferguson Partners Ltd.

Contents

3 Lessons (Re-)Learned 5 Revenues & Expenses 7 Uncertainty: The Economy & The Election 9 Competition for Talent 10 Selling Brand Equity 11 International Growth & Opportunity 13 Technology’s Disruptive Impact 15 Industry Architecture—Big Looks Better

Hospitality Leadership Symposium

America’s leading hotel companies find diminishing expansion opportunities at home and increasingly look overseas to propel growth and profits. Coping with the sputtering recovery, lodging businesses transform to meet the challenges of economizing travelers, managing cost structures, and adapting to Internet-driven changes which squeeze operating margins. William Ferguson, Chief Executive Officer of Ferguson Partners, interviewed a select group of hotel executives to get their perspectives on their changing industry. The executives interviewed were:

■ Jackson Hsieh, Global Head of Real Estate, Lodging and Leisure Group, UBS Investment Bank

■ Chris Nassetta, President and Chief Executive Officer, Hilton Worldwide

■ Leland Pillsbury, Co-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Thayer Lodging Group

■ Arne Sorenson, President and Chief Executive Officer, Marriott International, Inc.

■ Kathleen Taylor, President and Chief Executive Officer, Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts

■ Edward Walter, President & Chief Executive Officer, Host Hotels

The following report digests their comments and outlooks, covering a wide range of topics including lessons learned from the downturn, strategies for international growth, grappling with online reservation competition, and predicting future winners and losers in the industry.

Lessons (Re-)Learned

Although “recovery has been slow to materialize” especially in group business and food and beverage sales, the interviewee consensus is that the hotel industry on an operating basis “has performed very well since the meltdown” after a sobering period with enduring implications about excess borrowing and marketplace volatility. “Suppressed levels of revenue during the downturn” showed company leaders “how bad things can get in a fixed-cost business model” with “highly leveraged investments.” At the same time, many chastened lenders and investors have lost their hotel appetites at least temporarily—the sector is “probably the most overleveraged and represents the most difficult [property] asset class to refinance and recapitalize.”

Leverage Trap “Many lenders and investors had to learn the hard way that operating and financial leverage are cumulative.” They put the same amount of financial leverage on hotels as office or retail, and “lenders mistakenly looked at hotel operating cash flows the same way they looked at triple net leases.” When “you pile operating leverage on top of asset leverage, things can get way, way, way out of hand.” Debt origination “for financial gain with no solid footing or credit analysis” sank the system—“people lent money they knew borrowers could not pay back—we were commissioning people to make non-recoverable loans and then derivatives compounded the problem.” But interviewees admit, if reluctantly, that owners need to shoulder blame too. “Some owners borrowed more—not necessarily more than the hotel could afford at the moment in time, but probably more than it could have afforded on any kind of cyclical modeling—and the depths of the recession pushed that way beyond limits considered in normal credit analysis.” They “were taking advantage of low interest rates and modest interest costs, so it’s not surprising what they were doing.”

As a result, many hotel owners remain saddled with uncomfortable debt loads even as room rates have recovered, and some form of widespread workouts-defaults-foreclosures-asset takeovers will hang over part of the lodging sector for the near-term. Much of the industry, including some of the most prominent publicly-traded hotel companies, managed to avoid the worst of the leverage trap. “Modestly capitalized assets going into the downturn actually have weathered the storms fairly well”—overall “there wasn’t necessarily a lot of excess going on.” Instead of increasing leverage, “we need to recognize that value will be created in the long run by having a better balance sheet.”

Unhelpful Political Rhetoric Some interviewees continue to fault credit-crisis political posturing by government leaders for continuing levels of disappointing group business. “The rhetoric coming from even the President back in ‘09 scared a lot of companies from having group events, especially at better hotels, to avoid bad front page publicity. “Don’t travel to places where it’s sunny, pull-back on meetings and incentives, don’t reward high sales performers with travel.” The industry “never experienced” those headwinds before, and “it hurt us more than other industries in the recession.” Companies continue to hold back on entertainment and employee rewards programs, while closely monitoring executive budgets—the bottom line savings reinforce seemingly newly embedded mindsets for more austere travel practices.

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Enhanced Volatility The hotel world also took a refresher course in how to deal with systemic industry volatility, which has become “harder to judge,” incurring more severe drops over the past decade. “To think cyclicality wasn’t coming back to play in 2007 was ridiculous when we have been going through a seven to ten year cycle with greater volatility than other real estate asset classes since the 1970s.” And “we can no longer afford to characterize downturns as anomalies,” rationalizing “the next cyclical drop can’t be worse than the last.” Before 2001, “our business never declined by more than a couple of points, but after the tech bubble burst and 9/11, we experienced a massive decline, and after building things back up, the 2007-2008 period was even worse than post-9/11.”

What is behind the increased risk of sharp declines in market demand during economic retrenchment? “The industry is just bigger—20 years ago we had only 40% or so of today’s capacity. Now the industry has five million rooms, and we rely on many more travelers. When companies and individuals cut back travel, the impact is more profound. The Internet doesn’t help either, making pricing much more transparent. Customers can find low rates more easily, creating more competitive pricing and price cutting.”

Anticipating Problems To cushion against volatility “we need to be careful about not investing at the peak times in the cycle” and maintain fiscal and operation discipline in good times when things can become “sloppy, even bloated in terms of cost structure.” Managements have “figured out how to take costs out and have done a pretty good job of not loading them back in. If you load it too quickly, you may not see the profit growth that you really should register.” The industry “definitely discounted and was very quick to fill empty beds” through Internet booking. “The transient side of our business is back to ‘07” levels for room nights although room rates lag and “the group side has not recovered like we expected.” The big brands especially have had “a harder time recently pushing back on the Internet distribution channels which are getting more power now,” and keeping downward pressure on rates.

Only time will tell if owners, investors, and lenders also can restrain themselves near market tops—always a tall order in the momentum-prone capital markets. And given the halting nature of the current economic recovery, a steep cyclical upswing may be slow to develop, allowing memories to characteristically fail.

Expect the UnexpectedIf the last few years have taught anything, complacency remains the biggest enemy of the hotel executive. “We always need to be expecting the unexpected, because the impact is often severe, and there isn’t anything that happens in the world that doesn’t affect the hotel business.”

“We always need to be expecting the unexpected, because the impact is often severe, and there isn’t anything that

happens in the world that doesn’t affect the hotel business .”

Revenues & Expenses

Yield Management The single biggest industry issue is pricing—“we are operating under a flawed set of assumptions,” involving yield management based on demand, which “lead to really bad decisions.” It’s evolved into “a kind of black box Planet of the Apes, which managers don’t really understand, but follow anyway.” Studies have shown “cutting prices to keep market share does not maximize profits. In fact, hotels that don’t cut rates are more profitable than their counterparts that do. And yet, we continue to follow the idea that if I lower my rate by $10, then I will get someone to come to my hotel that otherwise wouldn’t come. And, of course that leads to a vicious cycle of price cutting within a competitive set, and everybody suffers accordingly.” The online travel agencies (OTAs) “have really taken a bite out of our hide,” commoditizing the product. They have “taught consumers that there really isn’t a difference between any of the major brands—a Marriott room is like a Hilton room is like a Hyatt or Westin.”

Changing Demographics Feeding into this commoditization wave, the millennial generation (also known as Gen Y or Echo Boomers) is advancing into adulthood and is “having a greater influence on our industry as they travel more. They are far more tech-savvy and less brand reliant. They are more likely to shop for price on the Internet and look up reviews and commentaries about their options. They are younger and haven’t traveled as much so any trip is like an adventure.”

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Returning Pricing Power Despite the challenges, the lack of new supply in the development pipeline (at historic lows in the U.S.) should “present tremendous pricing opportunities” with any modest demand pick-up. Even with anemic growth, “the multiplier effect on demand growth relative to GDP growth with no supply is spectacular” and will enable us to “regain pricing power.” That means “we will get more travelers in our rooms unless the economy goes essentially negative for an extended period.” The more robust that economic growth turns out to be, “the more likely demand meaningfully exceeds supply,” and further drives profits, not only from higher occupancies, but also from higher rates. And “any company that can figure out how to drive brand equity and differentiate their product offering will have the chance to knock it out of the park.” A leading indicator for improving demand is business investment—“when that increases customers come back.”

Labor Expenses “The only way to really control and influence costs in operating hotels is labor, and the industry has been doing a lot better at labor-forecasting needs and scheduling control management to improve margins dramatically without hurting customer service and guest satisfaction.” Taking advantage of the recession, “companies chopped staff basically as much as they can and have been very aggressive with the hotel unions.”

Energy Management As electricity, heating and cooling costs mount, hotel owners need to think about incorporating more sustainable systems into their facilities—it’s not necessarily about environmental stewardship, it’s about bottom line cost savings. “On the operational side, energy management is a real issue—hotels are not that efficient. The reliance on Internet distribution means the industry must find other avenues to generate cash flow, and energy management will be an area of a lot more focus.”

“The only way to really control and influence costs in operating hotels is labor, and the industry has been doing a lot better at labor-forecasting

needs and scheduling control management to improve margins dramatically without hurting customer service and guest satisfaction.”

Uncertainty: The Economy & The Election

The interviewees retain optimistic outlooks, expecting a choppy recovery to continue, but struggle with uncertainty stemming from unprecedented global economic turmoil and the crippling partisan divide in American politics. “Despite the interruptions and the pounding hotel stocks took in 2011, the next three or four years look pretty good,” although we are sort of hostage to a bunch of things—”there are just so many cross currents out there right now.”

Government Debt Crisis “The biggest issues on the downside are Europe and any shocks out of the blue to the U.S. economy. The good news is, other than maybe Treasuries, all the bubbles have been pricked in our economy. Since the rate of growth is so anemic, any shock could cause a disruption and drop off growth materially on a relative basis. Most likely, 2012 comes in with 2-3% growth, and slowly but surely we start to build back enough that some problems resolve themselves.”

Washington Gridlock The “absolute overriding issue” is “regulatory uncertainty” and “the logjam” in U.S. politics. “We’ve got a screwed up system”—nothing will happen until after the election. “People don’t hire, don’t build, and don’t invest when they don’t have some sense of what the rules will be in the future. And when you have a Congress and a President that can’t seem to get anything done, capital spending is delayed.” The “hit to consumer confidence” means fewer trips and big events like weddings—“it causes people to press the pause button.” America faces “the biggest crisis in our lifetime, certainly since World War II. Where is the leadership to help the country through this period?”

Tight Credit Weakness in the banking sector and ongoing deleveraging by governments and investors means “the availability of credit will be very, very constrained, impacting our ability to grow the portfolio. Obtaining construction financing to get new projects started is very tough in certain parts of the world,” particularly in the U.S. outside major markets. “Most small regional banks may be doing little lending, and an individual borrower willing to put recourse down may succeed, but generally speaking it is pretty hard to get a construction loan.” But the lack of easy money to build new projects may be beneficial and sustain recovery—“the thing that kills the business is oversupply; that crushes us and it won’t be an issue in the near term. New construction will largely be off the table for the next few years.”

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Risk Management Risk management is “a kind of fancy phrase which means we need to make sure investments are wise. In 2006-2007, we got lulled into a hopeless mistake, figuring that since valuations were great and debt was cheap that meant low risk. We never asked ourselves whether we might be at or near the peak. We were all chasing the upward line.” Today, “anything bought in 2010 is overperforming most underwriting.” But with people getting more aggressive (in 2011), that might not be the case for more recent deals “since the outlook for ’12 has gotten a lot more conservative.” Buyers are generally getting meaningful discounts to replacement costs, “so even with the higher prices that were paid, it may take a little longer to catch up, but in the end folks will be okay.”

Governance “Industry boards have been reasonably well engaged, especially since you have a lot of inside ownership in these companies with people who are consequently largely playing with their own dollars. Private boards tend to have a better level of engagement than public companies, because everyone around the table has a huge vested financial interest and is super serious about it.” Among the different real estate sectors, “lodging probably is the most complex, because it’s an operating business. Office buildings and apartments are more transparent and easier to understand.” “In some industries, breaches from cronyism exist, but you don’t see that in our business to any large degree.”

The interviewees retain optimistic outlooks, expecting a choppy recovery to continue, but struggle with uncertainty stemming from unprecedented global

economic turmoil and the crippling partisan divide in American politics .

Competition for Talent

Although the jobs market remains soft, hotel leaders grapple with how to attract “the best and brightest to the industry” and then retain them. Competition for talent “will become increasingly fierce” not just among hospitality companies, but also from companies outside the hotel sector. “There are many opportunities out there for people with great people and sales skills.” Even with all the new technology impacts on front-end reservations, this is still a people industry, where people deliver the product and service, and we are only as good as our weakest leadership team across our various operations. We need to maintain our status as employers of choice, because without developing a pipeline of people, aspirations for increasing market share become illusory.”

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Although the jobs market remains soft, hotel leaders grapple with how to attract “the best and brightest to the industry” and then retain them... “We need to maintain our status as employers of choice, because without developing a pipeline of people, aspirations for increasing market share become illusory.”

10© 2012, Ferguson Partners Ltd.

All the major American hotel companies appear to be struggling with differentiating their offerings and value propositions, while maintaining a consistently high and recognizable service across all their facilities, especially as they expand into more overseas markets. “Brand equity has been reduced over the past decade, and none of the companies has yet figured out the strategic response to reinforce and revitalize their brand equity.” Building consumer allegiance means developing not just a distinguishable product, but a preferable one—“you need to keep in mind just because it is different doesn’t mean that somebody wants it.” What’s worked for Apple in computers provides guidance for hotels. “They have created a product line that is not only differentiated but also very desirable. Ultimately, the same holds true for us; we are selling experiences, and those experiences which are most desired by consumers will win the most business.”

“A great example is the hypoallergenic room for people who have allergies, particularly asthma. In the case of that room, we charge $20 to $25 a night extra, but reservations and front desk really don’t know how to sell it. They don’t know how to sell upgrades. So, the opportunity to differentiate products from competitors across the street gets lost in the execution. Today with technology, we have the capability of dealing with a multitude of room types and should be able to tailor the room type and the offering to the consumer, and give the consumer more choice. That’s a huge opportunity that we have not figured out how to exploit. No one has cracked the code yet, but the strategic response is critical to the long-term viability of the brand. That’s the challenge in the next cycle and the winners will figure that out.”

At the same time, consumer preferences “are changing very quickly—they go in and out of fashion faster than ever before. It is a very tough place for fixed establishments to compete in.”

Selling Brand Equity

International Growth & Opportunity

When hotel operators look at the numbers they realize the U.S. offers limited opportunities and future growth must come from overseas initiatives. “The percentage of travel relative to GDP in the U.S. used to correlate on about a one-to-one ratio in the 1970s, but now we see growth in room nights tied to GDP declining to about 60% of 30 or 40 years ago. That really tells you we are in a relatively mature business—the one element of travel that has opportunity to grow is on the international front.” The best growth and profitability will be in the international gateway markets—“we would rather be invested in London, Paris, Rio, Sydney and Melbourne, or New York and Washington DC than in secondary U.S. markets.”

Emerging Market Rush Hotel sector growth will come primarily outside largely saturated U.S. markets from two inter-related initiatives, undertaken primarily by the major hospitality companies. They look to expand in under-served Asian and South American markets as well as open in new destinations with an overriding goal of building brand awareness among consumers in nations with growing numbers of potential global travelers—particularly China, Brazil, Russia, and Turkey. “Opening in new markets is very important—they generate new customers, new career opportunities for our people, and increased profits. Most development will come outside the continental United States.” In addition, “diversity of income streams from different geographic regions helps manage risk” across lodging company portfolios.

Global Focus Travel and tourism should “grow at a far greater rate than inflation over the next decade, driven by middle class growth in the emerging markets as well as the desire by more people in mature markets to travel outside their countries. The industry can spread its wings and really bring great hospitality options to the developing nations as well as receive an anticipated surge in tourism from emerging markets into Europe and North America.” These trends “can potentially flip fundamentals around.”

Overseas Hurdles Entering new markets always presents a steep learning curve—“we need to establish human resources infrastructure and install managements which understand local perspectives with proper management governance that may be very different from the United States. But can we do that efficiently?” It requires “finding people with the appropriate expertise who understand these markets and deciding what decisions to leave to local teams. There’s a balance between top down control from global headquarters and delegation. You can’t suddenly give authority to folks who have not been trained to make decisions in the field.” And in markets like India and China you just can’t get the people. “Over the next four years, we have to hire 50,000 people in China—that means becoming a university or vocational school to train staff properly.”

Europe From an operating standpoint, Europe appears headed into a very serious and difficult political and economic period—a double-dip recession seems likely. “It’s not a very attractive place to be.” But vulture buyers wonder whether they may see some “extraordinary” acquisition opportunities during the next two to three years, purchasing at or near market bottom. Only about 30% of hotels are branded, offering consolidation plays to take advantage of brand distribution systems which “deliver customers and meaningfully reduce performance risk.”

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Asia and India Asian markets have “popped back much quicker and continue to roar ahead.” China and India will be “major growth centers. While China bulges with four times the population of the U.S. and now boasts the world’s second largest economy, its 2.4 million hotel rooms, mostly unbranded, are less than half the U.S. total. “Realistically in 20 years they will have twice the number of hotel rooms with substantially more branded accommodations, possibly as many as 70 to 80 percent of total rooms. “It’s a tremendous opportunity.” India “looks more difficult to penetrate,” but tourist travel continues to increase from Europe and North America, and inter-continental business opportunities accelerate as India’s economy expands into a major world player.

South America and Africa In South America, Brazil, Argentina and Chile provide opportunities for the global brands as business and tourist travel dramatically escalates. Colombia, Ecuador and Peru show increasing potential too as their economies mature. “Even Africa offers some upside—it’s complicated with some bad governments, but some countries have vast natural resources with attractive civil societies. Their limited number of hotels creates tremendous opportunities.”

Leveraging Brand International hotel strategies involve much more than gaining local market share. “It’s not just about having W’s in China for Chinese customers; it’s about having these same customers stay in a W when they come to New York, because they know the brand.” In fact, “that’s why the major players are making certain they have a presence in all the major cities around the world.” An interviewee attributes his company’s “increased share of international travel business in the U.S. to visitors from overseas recognizing the brand. It all feeds on itself, and anybody who can’t figure out how to do that is ultimately going to fall further behind.”

Buying Market Share In Europe and Asia, “few companies have major scale”—potential acquisitions involve “mostly smaller portfolios and one off deals.” In Europe, workouts from damaged legacy opportunity funds may yield bargain transactions, but they have not come to market yet, and any portfolio deals likely will package prized assets with troubled properties.

“If I am going to do a portfolio transaction, I sure would like to think more than half of what we buy are keepers. I am not going to buy a billion dollars to keep a quarter of it unless the price is incredible. And the reality is you don’t see incredible pricing.” Winners in the acquisition game must be “bold, betting on continued disruption and investing in transformation. The losers won’t get past the analysis to take action. And it’s very clear that uncertainty and instability will cause great opportunities to emerge. Some bets will be winners, others will fail, but the bigger risk is failure to act, failure to reposition and failure to reconfigure.”

Potential Speed Bumps A possible double-dip recession could short-circuit international expansion plans. “A vise grip combination of the U.S. political system continuing to fail, European banks and economies cratering, and Chinese growth slowing down could set us back in a material way with a painful short-term impact. It would be foolhardy not to think this combo platter could occur, and we cannot control that.”

“Opening in new markets is very important—they generate new customers, new career opportunities for our people, and increased profits. Most

development will come outside the continental United States.”

Technology’s Disruptive Impact

Characterizations of the hospitality business as “a mature industry with limited growth” belie “an enormous amount of ongoing and accelerating disruption, driven by technology and the greater availability of information.” How the industry harnesses this information in marketing and distribution models to attract consumers ranks as “the greatest challenge of the next decade” for hotel managers. The recent recession and severe doldrums also help push “a rethink of business processes” along the technology continuum, including reservation systems, shared services, organizing human capital, and energy management. “Ultimately the goal is making progress and investment in time and labor cost savings.”

Scale’s Advantages Technology advances favor larger companies with the scale to take advantage of platform-wide cost savings. But the credit markets and the state of the economy “make it a very tough time to make large bets” on the enormous opportunity for synergies from the standardization of systems. “You can never stop spending if you are not careful, and you need to draw the line.” And there is a long way to go before “even a single chain of hotels can operate on a single platform. The bias will be toward increasing scale and scope. How soon that happens, given the environment is a big guess.”

Changing Tactics In dealing with the revenue management puzzle, one interviewee contends “the brand guys have not been fast enough to move rates, take more chances, do more naked booking, and push back on the Internet distribution channels.” The big companies must step up direct outreach to their customers through more “online advertising, communication, outreach, and distribution, sidestepping the OTAs. “As much as possible we need to control our own distribution and online strategies through loyalty programs and discourage using intermediaries. We are spending a fortune doing a bunch of things on our own website, including rating systems that make it easier for people to come our way. You give them incentives by earning points, where they can’t earn them through the OTAs. With the right incentives and packaging, you can have some impact.”

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Price Shopping “Our Internet reservations system has become the best way to sell a room and connect to customers,” says an interviewee. But technology can cut against operators who face two-edged sword consequences of dependency on Internet booking, which one interviewee characterized as the industry’s “crack cocaine.” Consumers now price shop effortlessly on the Web, forcing competitive rate wars and dampening opportunities to increase room charges. “In 2008 and 2009, Travelocity, Expedia and Hotels.com helped the industry fill heads in beds, and saved businesses. But the longer-term industry problem is transparency goes two ways. Not only do we have great information on RevPAR and how chains are reporting every day, but the consumer can shop for the best rates, and that’s put a tremendous cap on raising rates. In past cycles without transparency, hotels could just jack the rate. If you want a room and you need it and they only have five rooms, then I am going to charge you, I am going to take it to you because you need that room. I know it, you know it, and so you’re just going to pay. That’s all off the table. It’s a free market, everybody has got the transparency, and so while transparency has helped create circuit breakers, it’s shifted a lot of power away from operators and the brand companies to the consumer.”

Cost Savings Hotel leaders cogitate about the plusses and potentials of technology advances well beyond outsourcing accounts payable. Internet reservations have reduced travel agent commissions. “If we could start to get people to check in at kiosks we could cut back on some labor. And recognition software may let us extend more customized service so we can anticipate what guests want and cater to them.” At the same time, “Facebook, LinkedIn, and Blackberry Messenger can be used to pull consumers into hotel company space.” The possibilities seem limitless.

OTA Conundrum Shutting out the OTAs may prove difficult, but the OTA business model could be vulnerable too. “Hotel companies do business with Expedia because they have to do, but anytime they can avoid it, they do. Long-term, you can’t build a business where people in your value chain are your enemies. There are strategic and economic reasons why their suppliers don’t want to do business with them. Their model could be more powerful if it worked the opposite way and all the hotel groups wanted to be part of it.”

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How the industry harnesses information in marketing and distribution models to attract consumers ranks as “the

greatest challenge of the next decade” for hotel managers .

Industry Architecture—Big Looks Better

Over the next decade, “really large companies have more opportunities to succeed. The world is becoming a smaller place, brand loyalty is spreading and bigger companies have more engines to drive that loyalty. They have more money to spend on IT, distribution, and rewards programs, and more leverage in the distribution battle to build loyalty across the entire globe. Scale will become a more important advantage that will lead to more consolidation as smaller and medium sized businesses seek to compete.” The big companies may pick up one-off assets and small portfolios, but they may have trouble finding many additional economies through purchases. “The constricted credit markets make it a very tough time to make large bets,” and “separate ownership structures deter really big deals that might result in significant change.” On the brand side, “the major companies have determined that they would rather build than buy. Eventually, expect some consolidation” among smaller players, banding together.

Waiting for Bargains Private equity investors wait for the extend-and-pretend game between lenders and borrowers to run its course. “All the broken ‘05, ‘06, and ‘07 vintage transactions will eventually be foreclosed, restructured then sold or reconstituted in some form. Opportunity funds have a ton of capital saying ‘hey give me some opportunities with hotels and find me something interesting.’”

Boutique Losers When the industry is challenged like now and the big brands start to take disproportionate market share, boutique concepts falter without the muscle to drive distribution. “The big losers are the niche guys with three or four hotels.”

Hospitality REITs After bubbly pricing early in 2011 and a lot of upbeat anticipation about where the economy was headed, the public companies were beaten up when the economy went sideways later in the year. “If you are a stock investor, and you want to make an allocation to hotels, move away from the smaller companies.”

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About FPL Advisory GroupFPL Advisory Group (“FPL”) is a global professional services firm that specializes in providing executive search, compensation, and management consulting solutions to a select group of related industries. Our committed senior partners bring a wealth of expertise and category-specific knowledge to leaders across the real estate, asset and wealth management, hospitality and leisure, and healthcare sectors.

FPL is comprised of two primary operating companies that work together to serve a common client base. Ferguson Partners provides executive, director, and professional search services. FPL Associates provides a range of specialized compensation and management consulting services. Through our complementary practice areas, we work with our clients to develop the right talent, leadership, structures, and strategies for success in today’s intensely competitive marketplace.

From Boston, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, and Tokyo, we serve clients across the globe.

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Our Industry PracticesFPL serves clients in a select group of related sectors:

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© 2012 Ferguson Partners Ltd. All rights reserved. No business or professional relationship is created in connection with any provision of the content of this publication (the “Content”). The Content is provided exclusively with the understanding that Ferguson Partners Ltd. is not engaged in rendering professional advice or services to you, including, without limitation, tax, accounting, or legal advice. Nothing in the Content should be used in or construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other financial instruments or any advice or recommendation with respect to any securities or financial instruments. Any alteration, modification, reproduction, redistribution, retransmission, redisplay or other use of any portion of the Content constitutes an infringement of our intellectual property and other proprietary rights. However, permission is hereby granted to forward the Content in its entirety to a third party as long as full attribution is given to Ferguson Partners Ltd.

The Ferguson Partners recruitment practice consists of three affiliated entities serving FPL’s clients around the world: Ferguson Partners Ltd. headquartered in Chicago with other locations in New York and Boston, Ferguson Partners Europe Ltd. headquartered in London with a Japan branch located in Tokyo, and Ferguson Partners Hong Kong Ltd. in Hong Kong. Ferguson Partners Europe Ltd. is registered in England and Wales, No. 4232444, Registered Office: 100 New Bridge Street, London, EC4V 6JA. FPL Associates L.P., the entity which provides consulting services to FPL’s clients, is headquartered in Chicago.

The views and opinions expressed by each participant are such individual’s own views and are not necessarily the views of Ferguson Partners Ltd. or such participant’s employer.

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