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Hot Topics and Research Updates- What Is Going On With Nutrients?
Robert MikkelsenInternational Plant Nutrition Institute
Merced, CA
Sustainable Ag Expo
Feeling squeezed?
Why has fertilizer price increased?
•
fertilizer is a world market commodity …
subject to supply and demand
•
Price increases are a result of:
–Global demand is increasing
–High energy and raw materials costs
–Higher transportation costs–Weak USD
–Strong commodity prices
–Export tariffs on fertilizer in some countries
FOB World fertilizer prices, monthly averages January, 2000 – October, 2008
Source: Pike & Fischer ‘s Green Markets
Index of fertilizer prices paid by U.S. farmers, January 1995 – June 2008
1995
1996
1998
1997
2006
1999
2000
2003
2002
2001
2005
2008
2007
2004
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
400
75
275
250
225
200175
150
125
100
375
350
325
300
1990
/199
2 =
100
From January 2000 – June 2008Increased 268%
Source: NASS
Food,Feed,Fiber…
Ethanol is here to stay
World demand for foodWorld demand for food
••
“…“…food production has to increase 50% by 2013 and double in 30 years…”
–– (Source: Global Challenges for Humanity, 2008 State of the Futur(Source: Global Challenges for Humanity, 2008 State of the Future, e,
Millennium Project)Millennium Project)
Source: FAO Source: FAO
Diets are changing … more protein.
•
Requires more feed grains to produce protein– 7 kg/kg beef, 4 kg/kg pork, and 2 kg/kg poultry
Source: FAO
Meat consumption, kg/capita/yr
1998‐2008y = ‐1.80x + 3621
r² = 0.930510152025303540
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
% of con
sumption
Year (2008 =2008/09)USDA-FAS, 5/2008
World wheat plus coarse grains ending stocks, 1978-2008
Lowest 2 yrs on record
Low crop yields in the developing world (Ave. 2005 – 2007)
Source: FAO
Global Nutrient Demand
Why has fertilizer price increased?
•
fertilizer is a world market commodity …
subject to supply and demand
•
Price increases are a result of:
–Global demand is increasing
–High energy and raw materials costs
–Higher transportation costs–Weak USD
–Strong commodity prices
–Export tariffs on fertilizer in some countries
Cumulative U.S. ammonia plant closures increase with increasing natural gas prices
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Natural gas price, $/M
MB
tu
Num
ber o
f pla
nts
1985-1997 Ave. Price of Natural Gas $1.90 MMBtu
Source: TFI
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Change in Freight RatesVessel Jan 08 vs Jan 03Capesize 453%Panamex 359%
Index
Shipping and distribution costs increase
Baltic Ocean Freight Rate IndexJan. 2008 vs. Jan. 2003
Source: Overseas Marine Service, PotashCorp, TFI
Shipping and distribution costs increase
Rail Rates: Anhydrous Ammonia Tariff Rates - BNSF
Source: Overseas Marine Service, PotashCorp, TFI
0
15
5
10
20
25
30
35
40
45
$/to
n of
am
mon
ia
Jan 05 May 06 Mar 07 Nov 07 Jan 08
Falling U.S. dollar … increased cost for imported fertilizer
Source: USDA Economic Research Services
Value of U.S. Dollar (Jan. 03 – Dec. 07)
Food and fertilizer exports curbs
Export tariffs on fertilizers:
•China
•Russia
•Ukraine
•Belarus
•Egypt
•Vietnam
•Indonesia
What are the global consequences of higher What are the global consequences of higher fertilizer prices?fertilizer prices?
Global Consequences: Greater awareness of the role of fertilizer in producing food
Global Consequences: Reduction in fertilizer use …
•
Shift in crops … more soybeans
•
Less P and K use … more imbalanced nutrient use
•
Lower yields and less production …food
prices and grain stocks
•
Better environment?
Global Consequences: Increased investment by the industry in production capacity
Source: IFA
Global Consequence: Supply will catch up to demand in next 5 years
Source: M. Prud’homme. 2008. Global Fertilizers and Raw Materials Supply and Supply/Demand Balances 2008-2012, IFA Annual Conference, Vienna, Austria
Organic Nutrient Sources
• Provides an excellent source of plant nutrients• Majority of nutrients in manure and composts originated from fertilizer• Price of organic materials rise and fall in proportion to fertilizer costs
(nutrient substitution value)
Nitrogen is difficult to manage- regardless of the source
Building OrganicMatter is the Goal…
In California,Difficult to Make Large Changes inSoil Organic MatterWithout ContinualInputs
A major challenge for using organic N sources is knowing:
Amount of N appliedand
Rate of N release
Failure to synchronize N mineralization with crop uptake can result in:
• plant nutrient deficiencies (release too slow)• excessive N supply, leaching (not properly timed)
A nutrient source with a high C:N ratio may supply N too slow to meet the plant’s demand - potential deficiency
A nutrient source with a low C:N ratio may supply N more rapidly than the plant’s demand - potential loss
Van Kessel. 2002. Biol Fert Soils 36:118-123
Caution: Not all manure is the same…
For example:107 dairy manure samples were incubated for 8 weeks:
• average of 13% N mineralization, but• 20% had N immobilization• 80% had from zero to 55% mineralization
Very hard to predictN mineralization rates
Commercial Organic N Fertilizers
A variety of excellent N sources can be used-(depending on the purpose and the price)
High-N Plant Products:alfalfa meal (4% N), cottonseed meal (6% N), corn gluten (9% N), soybean meal (7% N)
Animal Byproducts:blood meal (12% N), guano (8 to 12% N)feather meal (14 to 16% N), fish meal/emulsion (2 to 14% N)
Seaweed Products:kelp products (1% N)... more common as K source (2% K)
Mined Products:sodium nitrate (16% N) mined from deposits in Chile and Peru(limited use for organic production)
How Can Manure Help My Bottom Line?
•
Farmers increasingly looking for alternatives to fertilizers
– Consider value of nutrients that would otherwise be purchased
– Value of second‐year nutrients– Indirect impacts‐
compaction, weed control, changes in
tillage, added organic matter
– Manure hauling and application costs
ECONOMICECONOMIC
SOCIALSOCIALECOLOGICALECOLOGICAL
Productivity
Profitability
Cropping SystemSustainability
Environment
Source
TimePlace
Rate
Net profit
Adoption
Return on investment
Yield
stability
Soil productivity
Water & air quality
Farm income
Working conditions
Nutrient balanceNutrient loss
Yield
Quality
Soil erosionBiodiversityEcosystem services
Resource use
efficiencies:
WaterNutrient
Labor
Energy
Global Framework for Fertilizer BMPs
Source: IPNI
Productivity
•
Yield –
per unit area, per unit of time
•
Efficiency of all resources involved in production
•
Quantity and Quality
Profitability
•
Difference between value and cost of production
•
Net profit per unit area per unit of time
Cropping System Sustainability
•
Influence of time on resources involved
•
Use of non‐renewable resources
•
“Outputs do not decrease when inputs are not increased”
(Monteith, 1990)
Rothamsted Research, 2006
Environmental Health
•
Biophysical– Material losses to water and air
– N, P, nitrate, ammonia, nitrous oxide
•
Social– Demand for labor
– Working conditions
Re-emphasize the Scientific Principles for Fertilizer Management:
BMPs and improving nutrient use efficiency
Scientific Principles for Fertilizer BMPs – Source
•
Ensure a balanced supply of essential nutrients.
•
Supply plant‐available forms.
•
Suit soil physical and chemical properties.
•
Recognize:– synergisms among nutrient elements and sources;
– blend compatibility;
– associated nutritive or non‐nutritive elements.
Scientific Principles for Fertilizer BMPs – Rate
•
Assess:– Soil nutrient supply;– All available nutrient sources;– Plant demand.
•
Predict fertilizer use efficiency.
Scientific Principles for Fertilizer BMPs – Timing
•
Match timing of crop uptake.
•
Assess dynamics of soil nutrient supply.
•
Recognize timing of weather factors influencing nutrient loss.
•
Evaluate logistics of field operations.
Scientific Principles for Fertilizer BMPs – Placement
•
Recognize root‐soil dynamics.
•
Manage spatial variability.
•
Avoid detrimental effects on plant roots, leaves and seedlings.
•
Limit potential off‐field transport of nutrients.
ECONOMICECONOMICNet profit
Resource use
Energyefficiencies: Labor
NutrientWater
Adoption
Return on investment
SOCIALSOCIAL
Yield
stability
Soil productivity
Water & air quality
Farm incomeWorking conditions
ECOLOGICALECOLOGICAL
Nutrient
balance
Nutrient loss
Yield
Quality
Soil erosionBiodiversity
Ecosystem services
Productivity
Profitability
Cropping SystemSustainability
Biophysical & SocialEnvironment
SourceSource
TimeTimePlacePlace
RateRate
Global Framework For Fertilizer BMPs
www.ipni.net
Thank You
