Hotspot Mapping, Near Repeat Analysis, and Risk Terrain Modeling Joint Operational Utility Leslie W. Kennedy Joel M. Caplan Eric L. Piza Rutgers, The State

Hotspot Mapping, Near Repeat Hotspot Mapping, Near Repeat Analysis, and Risk Terrain Analysis, and Risk Terrain

ModelingModeling

Joint Operational UtilityJoint Operational Utility

Leslie W. KennedyJoel M. CaplanEric L. Piza

Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey

School of Criminal JusticeCenter for Law & Justice

123 Washington StreetNewark, NJ 07102

www.rutgerscps.orgwww.riskterrainmodeling.com

Presentation to UCL Department of SecurityAnd Crime ScienceOctober 4, 2011

It’s all about riskIt’s all about risk

Slide 2 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved | www.riskterrainmodeling.com


Operationationalizing riskOperationationalizing risk



DataData

► Violent crimes (aggravated assaults, Violent crimes (aggravated assaults, homicides, robbery, shootings, and weapon homicides, robbery, shootings, and weapon possession)possession)

► Provided by the NJ State Police through the Provided by the NJ State Police through the Regional Operations Intelligence Center. Regional Operations Intelligence Center. ► 52 violent crime incidents from April to August 52 violent crime incidents from April to August 20072007

► 57 violent crime incidents from April to August 57 violent crime incidents from April to August 2008.2008.


Hotspot MappingHotspot Mapping

► Hotspots: areas Hotspots: areas with high with high concentrations of concentrations of crime. crime.

► Conventional Conventional hotspot mapping: hotspot mapping: uses locations of uses locations of past events to past events to anticipate anticipate locations of locations of future similar future similar events.events.



► Over +2 Standard Over +2 Standard Deviations is Deviations is statistically the statistically the top 5%top 5%




(Pearson Chi-Squared value=13.50; df=1; p<0.01)

Near Repeat AnalysisNear Repeat Analysis

► If a crime occurs at a location, the If a crime occurs at a location, the chances of a future crime occurring chances of a future crime occurring nearby increasesnearby increases

► Many near repeat incidents over time Many near repeat incidents over time could result in hotspotscould result in hotspots



► April-Aug 2007 April-Aug 2007 Violent Crimes:Violent Crimes: 500% greater 500% greater

chance of chance of victimization at victimization at the same place up the same place up to 7 days after an to 7 days after an initial incidentinitial incident

153% greater 153% greater chance of near chance of near repeat occurring repeat occurring within 14 days at within 14 days at 801-900 feet from 801-900 feet from initial incidentinitial incident

1 block ~ 370ft1 block ~ 370ft


NR Calculator: http://www.temple.edu/cj/misc/nr


► Use knowledge of near repeat Use knowledge of near repeat phenomenon to intervene at certain phenomenon to intervene at certain placesplaces

► Like hotspot mapping, it relies on Like hotspot mapping, it relies on the occurrence of crime before the occurrence of crime before predicting future behaviorpredicting future behavior


Risk Terrain ModelingRisk Terrain Modeling

► Risk FactorsRisk Factors Gang membersGang members Bus stopsBus stops SchoolsSchools Public housingPublic housing Bars, clubs, Bars, clubs, fast food fast food restaurants, and restaurants, and liquor storesliquor stores





► 38% of all violent crimes in 2008 38% of all violent crimes in 2008 happened at places with risk values happened at places with risk values of 3 or moreof 3 or more 10% of the area of Irvington10% of the area of Irvington

► Hotspot locations did not move from year to year Hotspot locations did not move from year to year because environments stayed criminogenicbecause environments stayed criminogenic


Joint Operational Utility Joint Operational Utility

► Capitalize on unique strengths of Capitalize on unique strengths of each methodeach method




► Violent crimes occur at places with Violent crimes occur at places with higher environmental riskshigher environmental risks Especially if violent crimes already Especially if violent crimes already occurred thereoccurred there



Joint Operational UtilityJoint Operational UtilitySummary:Summary:► Violent crimes occur at places with high Violent crimes occur at places with high

environmental risks environmental risks ► If environmental risks aren’t mitigated, then crimes If environmental risks aren’t mitigated, then crimes

will continue at same places, creating hotspotswill continue at same places, creating hotspots► Unpreventable instigator crimes will attract near Unpreventable instigator crimes will attract near

repeats at places of higher environmental riskrepeats at places of higher environmental risk






Use the Use the “Near “Near Repeat Repeat Opportunities” tool Opportunities” tool in the RTM Toolsetin the RTM Toolset



3-Part 3-Part Integration Integration for Crime for Crime Analysis Analysis and and ForecastingForecasting







Tactical Tactical Deployment Deployment Decisions:Decisions:

From Product A From Product A Respond Respond immediately to immediately to crime hotspots crime hotspots and high-risk and high-risk placesplaces

From Product BFrom Product B

Limit length of Limit length of time for time for targeted targeted deploymentsdeployments

From Product CFrom Product C

Prioritize Prioritize target areastarget areas

Hotspot Mapping, Near Repeat Hotspot Mapping, Near Repeat Analysis, and Risk Terrain Analysis, and Risk Terrain

ModelingModeling


Leslie W. KennedyJoel M. CaplanEric L. Piza

Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey

School of Criminal JusticeCenter for Law & Justice

123 Washington StreetNewark, NJ 07102

www.rutgerscps.orgwww.riskterrainmodeling.com

Documents

Hotspot Mapping, Near Repeat Analysis, and Risk Terrain Modeling Joint Operational Utility Leslie W. Kennedy Joel M. Caplan Eric L. Piza Rutgers, The State