HOUSING REPORT - REO Family Marketingreofamilymarketing.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/... · hasn’t stopped them from becoming a powerful group in the housing market. Women are

HOUSING REPORTNORTHWEST MICHIGAN | 1ST QUARTER 2019

Northwest Michigan

Q1 2019HOUSING REPORT

Single Women Prioritize Homeownership

Many people are surprised to learn that since 1981, when the National Association of REALTORS started tracking household composition, single women have been the second largest homebuying group—behind married couples. Statistically, single women tend to earn less and have smaller bank accounts than their male counterparts, but that hasn’t stopped them from becoming a powerful group in the housing market.

Women are on the move and the homeownership gap between single women and single men continues to grow. In the past three years, the percentage of single female buyers has grown from 15% to 18% of total buyers.

What drives more women than men to buy? For starters, single women prioritize homeownership more than single men —73% versus 65%, according to a study conducted by Bank of America. Independence and empowerment are two other leading factors motivating women to buy. Single women prioritize homeownership over other traditional life priorities such as getting married and having children.

Female buyers aren’t just young first-time buyers. The numbers are increasing for older generations as well. Women make up nearly 25% of the homebuying population. Single female boomers are one of the largest segments of our population. The increase in divorce rate, which is up 109% since 1990, is a contributing factor. With increasing divorce rates, more previously married women need their own home than ever before. Another factor is that women are simply outliving men. The average life expectancy for women is 81, four years longer than men.

Motivation may be different for everyone. Some are looking to build equity, gain independence, escape rising rents, downsizing, or looking for a clean start. As women begin to control more wealth than ever before, female homeownership is expected to continue to rise.

Men are more willing to postpone the first home purchase until they have found someone to settle down with. Women tend to be more independent and are more likely to take control of their housing and financial future.

Copyright 2018, Real Estate One

Northwest Michigan


$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

0

15

30

45

60

Jun '17 Sep '17 Dec '17 Mar '18 Jun '18 Sep '18 Dec '18 Mar '19

Closed Single Family Home Sales

Data source: Realcomp MLS using Great Lakes Repository Data. Percent changegs are compared to the same period last year (Year-Over-Year)

SALES Avg Sale Price

Summary

Condo sales doubled in March compared to February and are up 30% from last year. The additional sales, primarily in the middle price ranges between $125k and $350k, have been a factor in causing inventory to drop 18% compared to last year.

Despite the strong sales activity, average sale price slipped from $250k a year ago to $238k. That drop isn’t necessarily an indication of declining values. It was simply caused by the mix of sold units containing a higher percentage of smaller units than last year. Although average sale price dropped, the average price per square foot was up 5%.

Forty percent of the available listings are newly built 2018 and 2019 units with an average list price of $766k. With 30 months of high-end supply, developers will need to be creative in moving units—a potential opportunity for buyers.

e Price Range Field 1st Q ‘19 1st Q ‘18 ‘19 vs ‘18

All

Available 363 443 -18%

Closed 108 83 30%

Months Supply 10.1 16.0 -37%

Avg. Sale Price $228k $250k -9%

$ Vol (million) 25 21 19%

$10-125k


Closed 26 28 -7%


Value Change 1%

$125-200k

Available 57 61 -7%

Closed 27 23 17%


Value Change -12%

$200-350k


Closed 40 16 150%


Value Change 19%

$350k+


Closed 15 16 -6%


Value Change 17%

108YTD CLOSED SALES

+30% from last year

$228KYTD AVG SALE PRICE

-9% from last year

363AVAILABLE PROPERTIES

-18% from last year

$25MYTD CLOSED VOLUME

+19% from last year

TAAR 5 County CondoTraverse Area Association of Realtors



Waterfront

TAAR 5 CountyTraverse Area Association of Realtors

Closed Sales

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

0

15

30

45

60

75

90


SALES


Summary

Although average sale price was up 10%, first quarter inventory, closed sales and closed volume were all down compared to the same period last year.

While sales in all other price ranges dropped, closed sales priced from $500k to $750k jumped from 12 first quarter sales last year to 21 this year.

The waterfront market is exceptionally seasonal (see “monthly sales” columns in chart above). Expect sales to climb as summer approaches. Last year closed sales peaked in August—the prior year, July. The waterfront window of seller opportunity is small and seller competition will be high.

There are already 93 available listings priced over $750k. Through all of last year, 108 were sold. It’s best to get listings on the market early to maximize exposure to this season’s buyers.


All


Closed 75 85 -12%


Avg. Sale Price $527k $478k 10%

$ Vol (million) 39 41 -3%

$10-250k


Closed 19 22 -14%


Value Change -9%

$250-500k


Closed 23 34 -32%

Months Supply 8.7 7.1 22%

Value Change -20%

$500-750k

Available 78 83 -6%

Closed 21 12 75%


Value Change -7%

$750k+


Closed 12 17 -29%


Value Change 14%

75YTD CLOSED SALES

-12% from last year


+10% from last year

275AVAILABLE HOMES

-18% from last year


-3% from last year

Avg Sale Price



Non-Waterfront

TAAR 5 CountyTraverse Area Association of Realtors

Closed Sales

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

0

50

100

150

200

250


SALES


Summary

While non-waterfront inventory is slightly down, both prices and number of sales were up compared to last year.

First quarter closed volume set a new record high at $78M—$4M higher than the previous record in 2017.

This year’s $230k average sale price is up $23k from last year. Part of that jump was caused by a change in the sales mix—a decline in the number of entry-level sales while the number of upper-end sales increased. It doesn’t necessarily mean that the value of an average priced home increased by that much.

The rate at which values and prices rise or fall varies by price range and market area. The upper and upper-middle price ranges had the highest appreciation rates while values in the entry and lower-middle markets were relatively flat.


All


Closed 338 326 4%




$10-125k


Closed 55 67 -18%


Value Change -2%

$125-200k


Closed 107 108 -1%


Value Change 2%

$200-350k

Available 238 229 4%

Closed 124 120 3%


Value Change 17%

$350k


Closed 52 31 68%


Value Change 12%

338YTD CLOSED SALES

+4% from last year


+11% from last year

662AVAILABLE HOMES

-4% from last year


+15% from last year

Avg Sale Price



Waterfront

Antrim CountySingle Family Homes

Closed Sales

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

0

5

10

15

20

25


SALES


Summary

Antrim County waterfront sales got off to a slow start for the year. Available inventory is down from last year and the 16 closed first quarter sales is the lowest in the past 5 years.

On the brighter side, 11 of the 16 closed sales were recent March closings and monthly numbers will continue to rise as the summer season approaches.

When working with YTD numbers in smaller markets like this, averages and percentages tend to bounce erratically when charted because of the small sample sizes. Sometimes basic observations from the tables can be most helpful.

For example, only 4 of the 27 sellers who competed for $350k-$500k buyers in the first quarter were successful. In 2018 there were 22 total sales in this price range. There is a more seller competition than at this time a year ago, but prices are up.


All


Closed 16 21 -24%




$10-150k

Available 9 16 -44%

Closed 4 5 -20%


Value Change -8%

$150-350k


Closed 6 7 -14%


Value Change -38%

$350-500k

Available 27 21 29%

Closed 4 4 0%


Value Change 12%

$500k+

Available 22 23 -4%

Closed 2 5 -60%


Value Change 24%

16YTD CLOSED SALES

-24% from last year


+6% from last year

69AVAILABLE HOMES

-13% from last year


-19% from last year

Avg Sale Price



Non-Waterfront

Antrim CountySingle Family Homes

Closed Sales

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


SALES


Summary

Inventory levels have been down in the entry level price ranges, but up for home priced over-$350k. Sales have followed the inventory—down in the lower price ranges and up for higher-priced homes.

That combination has average price up 15% compared to the first quarter of last year. Be careful not to assume that means values are up that much. It varies by price range. Half of this year’s sales have been in the under-$125k price range and values in that range at best have been flat. In the past two years, there weren’t any first quarter sales priced over-$350k. This year there were three. That alone had a significant impact on average sales price.

In areas with such small sample sizes, “averages” can be misleading if viewed on their own without considering individual sales within each price range.


All


Closed 30 34 -12%




$10-125k


Closed 14 17 -18%


Value Change -7%

$125-200k

Available 22 24 -8%

Closed 9 10 -10%


Value Change 5%

$200-350k

Available 33 34 -3%

Closed 4 7 -43%


Value Change 14%

$350k+

Available 20 14 43%

Closed 3 0 -

Months Supply 20.0 - -

Value Change -

30YTD CLOSED SALES

-12% from last year


+19% from last year

93AVAILABLE HOMES

-9% from last year


+5% from last year

Avg Sale Price



Waterfront

Benzie CountySingle Family Homes

Closed Sales

$-

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


SALES


Summary

With 45 available listings, Benzie County had just 5 first quarter closed sales. That’s a slow start compared to 8 last year and 15 in 2017.

Although the waterfront market is just starting to kick in, there are 30 active waterfront listings priced over $500k and through the first quarter, only one sale. In all of 2018 there were 18 closed sales priced over $500k. Sellers with upper-end listings need to be creative with packaging and pricing their offerings to be successful in attracting buyers from such a limited pool.


All


Closed 5 8 -38%




$10-250k

Available 3 6 -50%

Closed 3 3 0%


Value Change -31%

$250-500k


Closed 1 3 -67%


Value Change -25%

$500-750k


Closed 1 - -

Months Supply 39.0 - -

Value Change -

$750k+

Available 17 14 21%

Closed - 2 -100%

Months Supply - 21.0 -

Value Change -

5YTD CLOSED SALES

-38% from last year


+46% from last year

45AVAILABLE HOMES

-10% from last year


-66% from last year

Avg Sale Price



Non-Waterfront

Benzie CountySingle Family Homes

Closed Sales

SALES

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35



Summary

First quarter sales are even with last year. Inventory levels are down by a few units and the average sale price dropped from $182k last year to $173k so far this year.

First quarter closed volume dropped each of the past two years from a high of $7.1M in 2017 to $6.0M last year and $5.7M this year.

As illustrated in the chart above, the Benzie County real estate market is highly seasonal with peak months like August or September having as many sales as a typical first quarter.

Last year, first quarter average sale price was down 9% from the prior year, but by the end of the year it was up by 5% and total closed volume was up by 7%.

It’s reasonable to expect this year’s market to pick up in a similar fashion. The over-$350k market, which started last year with only 2 first quarter sales, ended the year with a record-high of 20.


All

Available 69 72 -4%

Closed 33 33 0%




$10-125k

Available 8 8 0%

Closed 8 9 -11%


Value Change -24%

$125-200k

Available 20 19 5%

Closed 16 13 23%


Value Change -1%

$200-350k

Available 24 24 0%

Closed 7 9 -22%


Value Change 18%

$350k+


Closed 2 2 0%


Value Change 12%

33YTD CLOSED SALES

no change from last year


-5% from last year

69AVAILABLE HOMES

-4% from last year


-5% from last year

Avg Sale Price



Waterfront

Grand Traverse CountySingle Family Homes

Closed Sales

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


SALES


Summary

Despite inventory falling off by 20 units compared to last year, first quarter sales and closed volume were up slightly.

There is a high correlation between price range and supply levels. There are currently 10 available listings priced under $250k and 10 first-quarter sales—3 months supply. At the other end of the spectrum, there are 36 listings priced over $500k and only 2 first-quarter sales—54 months.

As we move up in price range, seller have to compete harder to attract buyers. These buyers have higher expectations and can afford to be more selective.

Upper-end sellers face additional competition from the new luxury waterfront condo developments in Traverse City. While they aren’t for everyone, some buyers looking for waterfront may choose the convenience of a condo over a single-family home.


All


Closed 33 31 6%




$10-250k

Available 10 11 -9%

Closed 10 6 67%


Value Change -13%

$250-500k

Available 31 29 7%

Closed 12 17 -29%


Value Change -17%

$500-750k


Closed 9 3 200%


Value Change 13%

$750k+


Closed 2 5 -60%


Value Change -14%

33YTD CLOSED SALES

+6% from last year


-4% from last year

98AVAILABLE HOMES

-17% from last year


+2% from last year

Avg Sale Price



Non-Waterfront

Grand Traverse CountySingle Family Homes

Closed Sales

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


SALES


Summary

2018 was a record-setting year with 5% more closed volume than any previous year. The first quarter of 2019 turned it up a notch by finishing even on inventory and sales, but adding 11% to the average sale price.

In the entry and middle markets, buyers continue to struggle with finding move-in-ready homes while inventory and activity in the upper-end markets continue to expand.

The number of first quarter sales priced over $350k jumped from 23 homes last year to 34 this year. Look for that trend to continue.

Sellers of upper-end properties face the toughest competition and will need to have their homes spot-on with condition and price, as luxury inventory has been growing faster than annual sales. Sellers face additional competition from the new condo developments.


All


Closed 195 200 -3%




$10-125k


Closed 16 19 -16%


Value Change 12%

$125-200k


Closed 54 70 -23%


Value Change 7%

$200-350k


Closed 91 88 3%


Value Change 13%

$350k+


Closed 34 23 48%


Value Change 15%

195YTD CLOSED SALES

-3% from last year


+11% from last year

329AVAILABLE HOMES

no change from last year


+8% from last year

Avg Sale Price



Waterfront

Kalkaska CountySingle Family Homes

Closed Sales

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


SALES


Summary

With only three first quarter sales, the Kalkaska waterfront market has yet to pull out of the starting gate.

While inventory levels have been down, the low number of closed sales is unusual. Last year’s 8 first quarter sales resulted in a 27% drop from the prior year. Over the past 4 years, the average has been about 12.


All


Closed 3 8 -63%



$ Vol (million) 0.8 1.9 -60%

$10-125k

Available 2 7 -71%

Closed 1 3 -67%


Value Change 8%

$125-200k

Available 8 18 -56%

Closed 1 2 -50%


Value Change 67%

$200-350k

Available 7 2 250%

Closed - 2 -100%


Value Change -

$500k+

Available 5 3 67%

Closed 1 1 0%


Value Change -2%

3YTD CLOSED SALES

-63% from last year


+6% from last year

22AVAILABLE HOMES

-27% from last year

$800KYTD CLOSED VOLUME

-60% from last year

Avg Sale Price



Non-Waterfront

Kalkaska CountySingle Family Homes

Closed Sales

$-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


SALES


Summary

Despite lower inventory levels, sales, prices and closed volume are all up compared to last year.

While it’s good to be ahead of last year’s pace, last year’s market activity was off the mark from 2017, which set a record for closed volume. When comparing first quarter performance to that record year, both sales and closed volume fall short, but values are up. This year’s average sale price of $126k is up $24k from last year and $19k from 2017.

As with many local markets, entry-level buyers are having a hard time finding affordable move-in-ready homes. Moving up to the $125k-$200k range, however, first quarter sales jumped from 8 last year to 18 this year. Watch for that price range to continue to be hot this year.


All


Closed 33 27 22%




$10-75k


Closed 5 10 -50%


Value Change -2%

$75-125k


Closed 8 8 0%


Value Change 4%

$125-200k


Closed 18 8 125%


Value Change 15%

$200k+

Available 23 18 28%

Closed 2 1 100%


Value Change 103%

33YTD CLOSED SALES

+22% from last year


+23% from last year

66AVAILABLE HOMES

-27% from last year

$4.2MYTD CLOSED VOLUME

+50% from last year

Avg Sale Price



Waterfront

Leelanau CountySingle Family Homes

Closed Sales

$-

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

0

5

10

15

20

25


SALES


Summary

Although the number of available listings has been down 29% compared to a year ago, the number of first quarter closed sales was up by one unit.

Average sale price jumped by $222k—from $603k all the way to $825k. That jump was fueled by the combination of four less under-$500k sales with two additional sales priced over $1m.

The luxury (over-$1m) market has been moving. With a current inventory of only eight available listings, there were four first-quarter closed sales. Last year there were 16 listings and only two sales. The numbers are similar in the $750-$1m market.

This is a good time for upper-end sellers who plan to sell this year to get their properties on the market. Doing so will ensure their exposure to the maximum number of buyers who will be looking this year.


All


Closed 18 17 6%




$10-500k


Closed 4 8 -50%


Value Change 1%

$500-750k

Available 13 12 8%

Closed 6 4 50%


Value Change -22%

$750-1m


Closed 4 3 33%


Value Change 17%

$1m+

Available 8 16 -50%

Closed 4 2 100%


Value Change 50%

18YTD CLOSED SALES

+6% from last year


+37% from last year

41AVAILABLE HOMES

-29% from last year


+45% from last year

Avg Sale Price



Non-Waterfront

Leelanau CountySingle Family Homes

Closed Sales

$- $50,000

$100,000 $150,000

$200,000 $250,000

$300,000 $350,000

$400,000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


SALES


Summary

The 2018 Leelanau market dropped off from 2017’s record units and sales volume. This year’s market has outperformed last year and is running ahead of the record numbers of 2017—sold volume is $5M ahead of last year and $1.3M ahead of 2017.

Upper-end sales are up significantly compared to previous years. The average price of homes selling for over $400k have dropped off slightly, but only because several homes that were in the upper-end of the $275k-$400k market have been rising up into the lower levels of the over-$400k price range.

There are currently 52 available listings priced over $400k. That is exactly the total number sold in 2018. Some of these higher-end properties may be facing new competition from the new luxury condos in Traverse City.


All


Closed 47 32 47%




$10-150k

Available 4 3 33%

Closed 8 5 60%


Value Change 2%

$150-275k

Available 17 14 21%

Closed 15 14 7%


Value Change 7%

$275-400k

Available 32 29 10%

Closed 15 8 88%


Value Change 43%

$400k+

Available 52 48 8%

Closed 9 5 80%


Value Change -1%

47YTD CLOSED SALES

+47% from last year


+7% from last year

105AVAILABLE HOMES

+12% from last year


+57% from last year

Avg Sale Price



Waterfront

Wexford CountySingle Family Homes

Closed Sales

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


SALES


Summary

This year’s waterfront market got off to a sluggish start, but gained momentum as 4 of the 7 first-quarter sales closed in March. The numbers will increase as the market moves into the warmer second-quarter weather.

This is the slowest start since 2015, when there were only 6 sales. Other recent years averaged about a dozen first quarter sales.

With such low activity levels, it’s useful to compare actual supply numbers to sales. While months supply does that, it’s still often helpful to think of it like this: “In the $200k-$350k price range there are 7 available listings and only 3 sold (one per month). What do we need to do with packaging and pricing this listing to make it the one that sells next month?” Looking at it this way is equally helpful for buyers when deciding what to offer.


All


Closed 7 12 -42%



$ Vol (million) 1.3 3.5 -63%

$10-125k

Available 6 5 20%

Closed 2 1 100%


Value Change 142%

$125-200k

Available 2 7 -71%

Closed 2 3 -33%


Value Change 42%

$200-350k

Available 7 13 -46%

Closed 3 4 -25%


Value Change 29%

$350k+

Available 7 6 17%

Closed - 4 -100%


Value Change -

7YTD CLOSED SALES

-42% from last year


-36% from last year

22AVAILABLE HOMES

-29% from last year


-63% from last year

Avg Sale Price



Non-Waterfront

Wexford CountySingle Family Homes

Closed Sales

$-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


SALES


Summary

Both available listings and closed sales were down in the first quarter. Average sale price, however, jumped from $101k to $131k.

While the $8.9M in closed volume is up from a year ago, it’s down about 10% from the record high set in 2017.

Buyers in the entry and lower-middle price ranges continue to be challenged as they look for nice move-in-ready homes.

In the upper price ranges, inventory has been shrinking—in part because the increasing number of sold has left fewer available listings.

Buyers looking for quality affordable homes should get in the market early and be ready to move fast when the right property becomes available.


All


Closed 68 80 -15%




$10-75k


Closed 14 33 -58%


Value Change 1%

$75-125k


Closed 20 24 -17%


Value Change 9%

$125-200k


Closed 27 18 50%


Value Change 9%

$200k+


Closed 7 5 40%


Value Change 8%

68YTD CLOSED SALES

-15% from last year


+30% from last year

84AVAILABLE HOMES

-26% from last year


+10% from last year

Avg Sale Price


Documents

HOUSING REPORT - REO Family Marketingreofamilymarketing.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/... · hasn’t stopped them from becoming a powerful group in the housing market. Women are