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Housing Stock and Demand

Amit Sinha

(www.indicus.net)

A renewed focus on affordable housing is in order. There is plenty of demand out there; supply is more likely to be the constraint. The demand for housing units in the top 112 cities is expected be 10.5 million units during the next 7 years leading up to 2015.

The demand for housing units in the top 112 cities is expected be 10.5 million units during the next 7 years leading up to 2015

The Housing Skyline of India estimates the demand for housing units in the top 112 cities to be 10.5 million units during the next 7 years leading up to 2015. The current stock of housing units in these cities is estimated to be 41.8 million units, which implies a growth in housing stock of over 25% within 7 years

Of these 112, the top 30 cities will account for 60% of the demand and are expected to add 6.36 million units during the next 7. The current stock of housing units in these 30 cities is estimated to be 25 million units.

 

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Stock of Houses > 1000 sq feet plinth area

 The top 112 CitiesFigures in millions

Households with Plinth Area Less than 500 Sq ft 17.0Households with Plinth Area Between 500-1000 Sq ft 12.5Households with Plinth Area More than 1000 Sq ft 12.3Demand for units (2008-2015) for Plinth Area Less than 500 Sq ft 3.5Demand for units (2008-2015) for Plinth Area Between 500-1000 Sq ft 3.4Demand for units (2008-2015) for Plinth Area More than 1000 Sq ft 3.7

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The top 30 CitiesFigures in millions

Households with Plinth Area Less than 500 Sq ft 10.01Households with Plinth Area Between 500-1000 Sq ft 7.48Households with Plinth Area More than 1000 Sq ft 7.55Demand for units (2008-2015) for Plinth Area Less than 500 Sq ft 2.14Demand for units (2008-2015) for Plinth Area Between 500-1000 Sq ft 2.07Demand for units (2008-2015) for Plinth Area More than 1000 Sq ft 2.15

Whereas most of the attention of the building industry is on the upper segment, it is middle and lower middle India which is driving demand -

The demand for housing of size less than 1000 sq ft is 6.2 million units over 7 years, which is 2/3rd of the demand

The anticipated growth in percentage terms in the lower segments (23% combined) is lower than the upper segment (30%), but on a base which is nearly two and a half times.

The pattern is similar for the alpha (top 10) and beta (the next 20) cities, implying a uniform demand for affordable housing.

The above pattern indicates that a renewed focus on affordable housing is in order. There is plenty of demand out there; supply is more likely to be the constraint.

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