Upload
others
View
4
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
HOUSING TRENDS REPORT
QUARTER 2, 2020 (Data Collected: June 16-28)
HOUSING TRENDS REPORT
The Housing Trends Report (HTR) measures
prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the
availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their
markets.
All data are derived from national polls of
representative samples of American adults
conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult. This report
is released quarterly to track changes in buyers’
perceptions over time.
Generation definitions:
o Gen Z*: Born 1997 to 2002.
o Millennial: Born 1981 to 1996.
o Gen X: Born 1965 to 1980.
o Boomer: Born 1946 to 1964.
Methodology:
The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to
approximate a target sample of adults based on age, educational
attainment, gender, race, and region. In qtr1’19, weights were
refined to better match the general US population and provide more
consistent distributions across demographic groups over time. These
new weights were applied retroactively to the entire series in order to
maintain comparability. In qtr3’19, Gen Z was incorporated into the
generational analysis for the first time.
* In 2020, Generation Z is constrained to end in the year 2002 because only adults 18 or older
can participate in the poll.
Results are not yet seasonally adjusted due to the short-time horizon of the series; therefore, only year-over-year comparisons are
statistically valid.
PLANNING TO BUY A HOME WITHIN 12 MONTHS
11% of respondents in Qtr2’20 are prospective home buyers
(planning to buy a home within 12 months), essentially
unchanged from a year earlier (12%). Put differently, COVID-
19 has had little impact on the propensity of Americans to want
to buy a home.
BY GENERATION: Millennials are the generation most likely to
want to buy a home (19%), even slightly higher than a year
earlier (17%).
* Gen Z data were not available in Quarter 2, 2019.
BY REGION: 13% of respondents in the West region are
prospective home buyers, about the same as a year earlier
(12%). In the Midwest, the share fell slightly, down to 9%.
24%
17%14% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 11% 10% 11%
Qtr
4'
17
Qtr
1'
18
Qtr
2'
18
Qtr
3'
18
Qtr
4'
18
Qtr
1'
19
Qtr
2'
19
Qtr
3'
19
Qtr
4'
19
Qtr
1'
20
Qtr
2'
20
17%13%
7%
14%19%
12%
5%
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers
Q219 Q220
*
10% 11% 12% 12%10% 9%12% 13%
Northeast Midwest South West
Q219 Q220
The rest of this report is based entirely on prospective home buyers, i.e. those planning to buy a home within the next 12 months.
1ST-TIME HOME BUYERS
59% of prospective buyers in Qtr2’20 are first-time buyers,
essentially unchanged from a year earlier (58%), but lower than
two years ago (63%).
BY GENERATION: 84% of Gen Z’s planning to buy a home are
first-timers, compared to 68% of Millennials, 52% of Gen X’s,
and 21% of Boomers.
BY REGION: Over 60% of prospective buyers in the Northeast
and South are buying a home for the first time. The share is
above 55% in the Midwest and West.
72%
54%63% 61%
53%60% 58% 60% 63% 61% 59%
Qtr
4'
17
Qtr
1'
18
Qtr
2'
18
Qtr
3'
18
Qtr
4'
18
Qtr
1'
19
Qtr
2'
19
Qtr
3'
19
Qtr
4'
19
Qtr
1'
20
Qtr
2'
20
84%68%
52%
21%
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers
62%
56%
61%
57%
Northeast Midwest South West
NEW OR EXISTING HOME?
40% of buyers in Qtr2’20 are looking to buy an existing home,
24% a new home, and 37% would buy either type.
By GENERATION: Over ¼ of Gen Z and Millennials would prefer
a new home. But more than one-third of every generation have
no strong preference between a new or existing home.
BY REGION: More than 30% of prospective buyers in every
region would buy either type of home. Buyers in the South are
the most likely to prefer a new home (27%).
40% 37%
24%
Existing home Either New or Existing New home
34%26%
21%12%
36% 34%39% 41%
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers
New Either New or Existing
24%20%
27%21%
32%36% 37% 38%
Northeast Midwest South West
New Either New or Existing
AVAILABILITY EXPECTATIONS
In the second quarter of 2020, 63% of prospective home buyers
expect that finding the right home will get harder or stay the
same. A quarter expect it will get easier in the months ahead.
BY GENERATION: Expectations that housing availability will
worsen or stay the same are highest among Boomers (70%),
followed by Millennials (64%) and Gen Z buyers (62%).
BY REGION: 67% of buyers in the West and 64% in the Northeast
expect that availability will worsen or stay the same in the
months ahead. At least 60% in the Midwest and South agree.
34%
16% 21% 19% 19%22% 20% 21% 23% 25%
25%
59%
73%68% 71% 72%
67% 67% 68% 65%62% 63%
Qtr
4'
17
Qtr
1'
18
Qtr
2'
18
Qtr
3'
18
Qtr
4'
18
Qtr
1'
19
Qtr
2'
19
Qtr
3'
19
Qtr
4'
19
Qtr
1'
20
Qtr
2'
20
Easier Harder / About the same
62% 64% 58%70%
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers
64%60% 61%
67%
Northeast Midwest South West
CHANGES IN INVENTORY
57% of buyers in Qtr2’20 report seeing fewer/same number of
homes for-sale* than three months earlier. Only 29% are finding
more homes available on the market.
BY GENERATION: A majority of buyers in every generation report
seeing fewer/same number of homes for-sale than three
months earlier, led by Boomers (62%) and Gen X buyers (61%).
BY REGION: Buyers in the West are the most likely to report
seeing fewer/same number of homes for-sale (60%), followed
by those in the Northeast and South (both 56%) and the Midwest
(53%).
* Homes with buyer’s desired features and price point.
38%
26% 29% 30% 27% 30% 27% 29% 27%31%
29%
53%63% 61% 60%
64%60% 59% 59%
62% 55% 57%
Qtr
4'
17
Qtr
1'
18
Qtr
2'
18
Qtr
3'
18
Qtr
4'
18
Qtr
1'
19
Qtr
2'
19
Qtr
3'
19
Qtr
4'
19
Qtr
1'
20
Qtr
2'
20
More homes Fewer or about the same homes
55% 54% 61% 62%
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers
56% 53%56%
60%
Northeast Midwest South West
AFFORDABILITY EXPECTATIONS
77% of buyers in Qtr2’20 can afford fewer than half the homes
available in their markets.
Only 24% can afford the majority of homes currently available.
BY GENERATION: More than three quarters of buyers of every
generation can afford fewer than half the homes for sale in
their markets.
BY REGION: Over 70% of prospective buyers in every region of
the country can afford fewer than half the homes available for
sale in their markets.
75%82% 76% 79% 76% 78% 80% 80% 79% 78% 77%
25%18%
24% 21% 23% 22% 20% 20% 21% 23% 24%
Qtr
4'
17
Qtr
1'
18
Qtr
2'
18
Qtr
3'
18
Qtr
4'
18
Qtr
1'
19
Qtr
2'
19
Qtr
3'
19
Qtr
4'
19
Qtr
1'
20
Qtr
2'
20
Can afford < 50% of homes for-sale
Can afford >= 50% of the homes for-sale
76% 76% 78% 76%
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers
73%
76%
79%77%
Northeast Midwest South West
BEYOND JUST PLANNING
About half (49%) of adults with plans to purchase a home have
moved beyond just planning and are actively trying to find one
to buy, a significantly higher share than a year earlier (41%).
This finding suggests the COVID-19 crisis and its accompanying
low mortgage rates have led some passive buyers to become
engaged and begin the home purchase process.
BY GENERATION: Of Millennials planning a home purchase in the
next year, 57% are already actively searching for a home.
Among Boomers, that share is only 37%.
BY REGION: Prospective buyers in the Northeast are the most
likely to be actively engaged in the purchase process (57%),
compared to 44% in the Midwest and 45% in the West.
46% 50% 47%54%
46%41% 44% 43%
49% 49%
Qtr
1'
18
Qtr
2'
18
Qtr
3'
18
Qtr
4'
18
Qtr
1'
19
Qtr
2'
19
Qtr
3'
19
Qtr
4'
19
Qtr
1'
20
Qtr
2'
20
40%57% 47% 37%
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers
57%44% 50% 45%
Northeast Midwest South West
Remaining set of findings are based solely on responses from buyers who are already actively engaged in trying to find a home (i.e. active
buyers)
TIME SPENT SEARCHING FOR A HOME
The length of time spent searching for a home is growing. In
Qtr2’20, 59% of buyers actively engaged in the purchase
process have spent 3 months or longer looking, compared to
55% a year earlier.
BY GENERATION: 65% of actively-engaged Gen X buyers have
been looking for 3+ months for a home to buy, followed by
61% of Gen Z buyers, 58% of Millennials, and 47% of Boomers.
BY REGION: 62% of active buyers in the South have been trying
to find a home for at least three months. The share is at least
55% in the other three regions.
50% 46% 45%42%
46% 45%42% 40%
44%41%
50%54% 55%
58%
53% 55%58%
60%
56%
59%
Qtr
1'
18
Qtr
2'
18
Qtr
3'
18
Qtr
4'
18
Qtr
1'
19
Qtr
2'
19
Qtr
3'
19
Qtr
4'
19
Qtr
1'
20
Qtr
2'
20
< 3 months 3 months or more
61% 58% 65%47%
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers
59% 58%62%
55%
Northeast Midwest South West
TOP REASONS BUYERS ACTIVE FOR 3+ MONTHS
HAVE NOT BEEN SUCCESSFUL
Although the top reason long-time searchers haven’t pulled the
trigger continues to be the inability to find an affordable home
(39%), that share is much lower than a year ago (50%). Multiple
offers are a rising concern, however: 29% report getting outbid,
compared to 18% a year earlier.
BY GENERATION: Unaffordable prices are holding back 46% of
Boomers looking for 3+months, 42% of Gen Z, and 40% of Gen
X buyers.
BY REGION: Over 40% of active home buyers (looking for
3+months) in the West and Midwest have failed to buy a home
because of a shortage of affordable homes.
Qtr
1'1
8
Qtr
2'1
8
Qtr
3'1
8
Qtr
4'1
8
Qtr
1'1
9
Qtr
2'1
9
Qtr
3'1
9
Qtr
4'1
9
Qtr
1'2
0
Qtr
2'2
0
Can't find a home at a price I can afford
Can't find home with features I want
Can't find a home in the neigborhood Iwant
39%36%32%
50%
29%18%
42% 36% 40% 46%
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers
34% 45% 35% 47%
Northeast Midwest South West
NEXT STEPS IF STILL UNABLE TO FIND HOME IN
MONTHS AHEAD
When asked what they’ll do next if still unable to find a home in
the next few months, about half of active buyers say they will
continue looking in their preferred location; 37% will expand their
search area; 21% will accept a smaller/older home; and 19% will
buy a more expensive home.
Difficulties finding a home to buy has led 19% of active buyers
to give up until next year or later. That share is up from 16%
a year earlier.
19%
19%
21%
37%
51%
Give up trying to find a home until
next year or later
Buy a more expensive home than
origianlly intended
Accept a smaller/older home than
originally intended
Expand my search area
Continue looking until the ‘right’
home opens up in a preferred location
13%16% 18% 16% 14% 16% 15% 16% 16% 19%
Qtr
1'
18
Qtr
2'
18
Qtr
3'
18
Qtr
4'
18
Qtr
1'
19
Qtr
2'
19
Qtr
3'
19
Qtr
4'
19
Qtr
1'
20
Qtr
2'
20
POLL DESIGN
The Housing Trends Report is based on quarterly polls conducted
for NAHB by the research firm Morning Consult.
Polls are based on a national sample of adults selected to
proportionately represent the US adult population in terms of
age, gender, region, race/ethnicity, and education. Further
weights are applied to the final set of respondents to ensure
proper representation across these demographic variables.
Table below shows sample size and dates of data collection.
Sample
size Collection
Period
Qtr4’17 2,800 November 16-19, 2017
Qtr1’18 11,674 March 28 – April 1, 2018
Qtr2’18 15,412 June 26 – July 8, 2018
Qtr3’18 20,051 September 25 – October 8, 2018
Qtr4’18 16,891 December 17 – January 9, 2019
Qtr1’19 15,401 March 18 – March 29, 2019
Qtr2’19 17,521 June 17 – June 27, 2019
Qtr3’19 17,601 September 9 – 22, 2019
Qtr4’19 19,804 December 17 – 24, 2019
Qtr1’20 21,652 March 17 – 28, 2020
Qtr2’20 19,800 June 16 – 28, 2020