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How can energy institutions
mitigate for future shocks?
Joni Karjalainen and Stephen Karekezi
University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre
Afrepren/FWD – Energy, Environment and Development for Africa
Energizing Futures – Sustainable Development and Energy in Transition
13–14 June 2018
Tampere, Finland
“Institutions often work as if the future ‘is there’
and they simply have to ‘go there’.”
(Poli 2017, 244)
Limitations of forecasting
• Forecasting methods for conventional energy planning may
work, if little future changes are expected
• We may claim that the exact opposite is true for many
African countries, few of whom have in the past had the
capacity to anticipate what could happen in the energy
sector in the next 5, 10 or 20 years.
The case study of Kenya
• As an example, East African countries, such as Kenya, did
not expect to discover oil or gas in the 2010s.
• The rapid emergence, fall in the price, and a growing
recognition of solar photovoltaics (PV), wind, storage
technologies, and modern biomass options were
anticipated only by a few policy-makers.
Research objectives
• Interest in explaining the uptake of renewable energy
technologies: what can be learned?
• Analysing the institutional prerequisites for a
growing uptake of renewable energy
(cf. Hancock et al. 2015) in
East African countries
Research questions
• What has been the role of institutions in the energy sector
of Kenya in introducing future-oriented solutions in the field
of energy access and renewable energy?
• What institutional expectations currently exist for the further
uptake of renewable energy technologies?
Kenya’s Power Sector before reform (before
year 2000)
Ministry Of Energy
Kenya Power Lighting
Company (KPLC)
End users
Imports
Diversifying the power sector
• Kenya has in recent years witnessed the
introduction of new institutions that have
(a) improved electricity access
(b) expedited the uptake of renewable energy
technologies; and
(c) is also planning to introduce new ones
• Establishment of Geothermal Development Corporation (GDC)
• Establishment of Rural Electrification Authority (REA)
• Establishment of the pay-as-you-go model
Historical case studies
Public
+
Private
10,914,5 16,1
23 2327
30
47
55
70,3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Acc
ess
to e
lect
ricity
Access to Electricity (% of Population)Rapid growth to 70.3% (KPLC, 2017)
Establishment of
REA
NB. Kenya Power Data: Kenya Power (KPLC) Annual Reports 2013/14-2016/17; World Bank 2016; UNESCO 2009
4.3
10.0 9.8 9.78.8 8.6
10.2
12.2 12.413.4
26.126.9 27.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Percentage
Year
Establishment of
Geothermal
Development
Corporation (GDC)
% Geothermal of Total National Installed Capacity
Data: Kenya Power (KPLC) Annual Reports 2002/03-2015/16NB. KenGen (Kenya Electricity Generation Company)
Safaricom/Mpesa/M-Kopa
Solar PV installed Capacity
1,23,9
78,712,3
17,89
25,4
31,6
54,9
61,7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Insta
lle
d C
ap
acit
y i
n M
Wp
Year
Establishment of
M-Kopa PAYG
model
NB. Safaricom Data: Hansen et al. (2014); Werner et al. (2015); Werner et al. (2017)
Draft Energy Bill 2015
• Proposes a Rural Electrification and Renewable Energy
Corporation to be established
Kenya’s Energy Sector in 2016
Key driver of energy planning processes is primarily cost
Energy planning in Kenya
Discussion
• Policy ideas need to have administrative and political
viability in addition to policy viability (Schmidt 2008; cf. Hall
1989; Katzenstein 1996; Barbier 2004; Cox 2001; Art 2006)
• Uncertainties & opportunities (Fuerth 2012; 2009; Poli
2017) How to govern the energy sector?
• Energy security analyses tend to omit anticipated changes in
the energy mix (on uptake of renewable energy, cf. Scholten
and Bosman 2016; O’Sullivan et al. 2017)
• Change should be understood beyond risk assessment also
in terms of the unpredictable (Aven 2013, 2015)
Possible enhancements of the planning process
to anticipate future developments or surprises
• What explains the success of these institutions in
promoting electricity access and the uptake of RE?
• Institutional theories
• Political and policy viability
• Role of platforms
• Anticipatory governance of technologies
• What alternative explanations might prevail?
(correlation – causality)
Thanks!Joni Karjalainen
Researcher
University of Turku
Finland Futures Research Centre
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Joni_Karjalainen
twitter.com/jonikarjalainen
Sustainable Development Futures Research Group sdfutures.fi
Great Electrification in Peer-to-Peer Society
ty.fi/greatelectrification and urly.fi/WDs
Additional slides (for our own use)
Futures workshop:
Presentations + 3 groups
Three working groups
1. Rural Electrification and Renewable Energy Corporation and
the Renewable Energy Master Plan
2. Associations in the renewable energy industry and other
sectors (agro-industry, enterprise development, manufacturing,
real estate, etc.)
3. New Knowledge: Educational sector, Higher Education
Institutions (HEIs) and Research
Four assignments
1. What is the current situation? What surprises could be in the horizon?
2. How to harness the relationships: with the Ministry of Energy, proposed Renewable Energy Authority & other associations?
3. How to best contribute to innovation efforts? How to make Kenya’s renewable energy sector more resilient?
4. What is the contribution to widening energy access – and the scaling up of renewables?
Methodology and data
• Past developments - three historical case studies
• Annual Power Sector Reports
• Future case study
• Document analysis – Draft Energy Bill (2015)
• Content analysis – 2 h Futures Workshop
• 1 h group work discussions from 3 working groups
Background
• Perspectives of futures/uncertainty, governance and renewable
energy
• Futures workshop by Karjalainen/FFRC and Afrepren/FWD
Karekezi in Nairobi, Kenya in October 2017
• Karekezi provided data for four case studies.
• Abstract to FFRC Summer Conference 2018, Karekezi
commented
• Refined approach in skype conversations every 2 weeks (spring
2018)
*) AFREPREN/FWD - Energy, Environment and Development Network for Africa
Article manuscript – Table of contents
1. Introduction
2. Theoretical framework
2.1 Uncertainty
2.2 Anticipatory governance
2.3 Discursive institutionalism
3. Data
3.1 GDC
3.2 REA
3.3 PAYGO
3.4 Draft Energy Bill (2015): Section 42-52 on Renewable Energy and RuralElectrification Corporation, Futures workshop 17 Oct 2017: 3 working groups
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
References
2 Theoretical framework/literature review
• Propose to combine three lenses:• Uncertainty AND/OR energy security
• Anticipatory governance
• Discursive institutionalism
Anticipatory governance
• Anticipatory governance
• Aims to manage opportunities and challenges that are “complex”, to
adapt existing systems presently built for problems that are
“complicated” (Fuerth 2012; 2009)
(1) Bring foresight into how national policies are created & executed
(2) Networked system (incl. whole-of-government management and budgeting)
(3) Feeback system to measure consequence and expectations
(4) Open-minded institutional culture
(5) Mission-oriented tactics (Poli 2017, 244)
Discursive institutionalism
• Ideas – policies, programs and philosophies – are embedded in
institutions (Schmidt 2008).
• The big question for scholars of ideas is why some ideas become to
dominate political reality while others do not.
• Policy ideas need to have administrative and political viability in
addition to policy viability (Hall 1989);
• state perceptions (e.g. defense, security) (Katzenstein 1996), national values
and political culture (Barbier 2004); timing (Cox 2001); and some ideas are
generational (Art 2006)
Next steps
• Futures Conference: Comments on the theoretical framework
• Data: is interesting, does it fit the research question?
• Research question: are we happy with it?
• Later…
• Karjalainen to write first manuscript (Introduction, Theory, Discussion,
Conclusions) in summer-autumn
• Karekezi to comment the full manuscript
• Decisions on which journal to submit
• Thinking of other forms of publication
