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IndEcol NGU-Dagen, 6-7 February, 2017, Trondheim
How circular is our economy, and how circular should it be?
Daniel B. Müller
1. The challenge: Design of the anthropogenic metabolism 2. Models to inform the design 3. Conclusions
Industry
Three key drivers for global material cycles 1. Population growth and
urbanization / industrialization
2. Globalization
3. Climate change & sustainable development
Moves materials from the ground into use
Moves materials around the world
Need for new infrastructures and changing global production and consumption patterns
Source: Haas et al 2015, Journal of Industrial Ecology
How circular is our economy?
Industry
Industry
Current economy
Circular economy
1. Is the Circular Economy strategy leading to an end of traditional mining? 2. Is a circular economy better than the current economy? Why?
3. How can we move towards a circular economy? What are barriers?
- Reduced resource consumption, waste, energy use, GHG emissions - But: comparison of apples and pears (growing versus saturated stocks!)
- System approach
Linkages between materials, energy, and emissions: “socio-economic metabolism”
1. The socio-economic metabolism shapes the quality of our life (services provided by stocks in use and environment) 2. Current socio-economic metabolism is not sustainable: - poverty / inequality (lack of access to essential services) - resource depletion, limited sinks for pollutants 3. Sustainable development requires transformation of socio-metabolic system from design of processes/products to design of systems
Müller et al. 2013
Data sources for 2008: Emissions: EDGAR Energy: IEA
Iron Cycle USA, 2000 (in million metric tons Fe / yr)
Source: Müller et al. 2006, PNAS 103(44)
Mining
Iron & Steel
Industry
Manu- Factur.
Use
Waste Manag.
FS FP OP
SC
38.4
14.5
6.0
IO 44.4
2100 R 4600 RB 700
1.1 18.1
2.3
53.0
12.9 21.4
37.2
107 128
1.3 13
124 111 77
+43 -53 +20
57
?
Obs. Pr.
?
50-200
3600
4.0
Distribution of iron stocks in the U.S.
Obsoletes stocks or export
Source: Müller et al. 2006, PNAS 103(44)
A future (urban) mine
A traditional mine
Source: Mûller et al, 2008
Source: Mueller et al. 2009
Per-capita iron stocks in industrialized countries: Saturation in several, but not all countries
Assumptions on future stock patterns and resulting average global stock by end use sector
Pauliuk, Milford, Müller, and Allwood 2013
Forecasting steel demand and old scrap supply by region
Pauliuk, Milford, Müller, and Allwood 2013
Ghoast town in Ordos, Inner Mongolia, China
Foto by D. Müller, September 2015
Steel demand and two scenarios for primary steel supply
Scenario 1: “trade follows capacity” (open markets)
Scenario 2: “capacity follows regional demand” (protectionism)
Pauliuk, Milford, Müller, and Allwood 2013
Carbon footprint of existing infrastructures (only materials production cement, steel, aluminium)
Source: Müller et al. 2013
+ 350 Gt CO2
120 Gt CO2
• Current total CO2-emissions: 4.5 t/cap*a 2°target: 1 t/cap*a • A globalization of Western infrastructure stocks could pose a significant challenge for 2°target
• Large difference between rich and poor countries, but small difference among the rich
• Mitigation options: materials production and materials use (urban form poorly understood)
Conclusions 1. Material use , energy use, and emissions form complex metabolic systems.
Dynamic MFA models allow users to anticipate potential challenges and to evaluate different mitigation strategies.
2. The global economy is far from circular. Currenty limiting: growing stocks in use - urbanization & industrialization - less abundant metals: energy and cleaning technologies - light metals: fuel saving incomplete recovery of end-of-life products Future limiting: scrap quality
3. A circular economy should not be regarded as an end, but as a mean. It can support the reaching of several SDGs - 12: Responsible consumption and production - 13: Climate action It may be in conflict with the reaching of other SDGs - 1: Poverty alleviation - 7: Affordable and clean energy - 8: Decent work and economic growth - 9: Industry, innovation, and infrastructure Need for systems approaches to support priority setting
M.C. Escher (1960): Circle Limit IV
Thank you! [email protected]
Angels or devils? It depends on the system definition
