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Ozone TransportHow Close Are We to Declaring
Victory?
Tad Aburn, Air Director, MDEAAPCA Meeting – April 5, 2018
Topics Covered• Maryland’s air quality
– 10 years of dramatic progress– How much of this progress is from reduced transport?
• A few snippets from our transport research program
• Where do we go from here … – How can we work together to get the last five yards … to
cross the goal line
2
Maryland’s Shrinking Ozone Problem
• In 2008, the Edgewood monitor in Harford County, Maryland was the highest reading ozone monitor anywhere outside of CA and TX. Baltimore was designated as the only Moderate ozone nonattainment area East of the Mississippi for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
• 2017 … only small areas of Baltimore, Harford, Kent, Cecil, and Prince George’s Counties were above the new ozone threshold of 70 ppb. All areas in Maryland in attainment of 2008, 75ppb threshold!!
1990 2017*
8-HourOzone
3*Note: 2017 Ozone Data is Preliminary & Includes Exceptional Event Concurrences.
<65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 >110 ppb
Meets Standard Exceeds Standard
Progress in Cleaning Maryland’s Air
4
152 147 143 137126
121 119119118
102 101101
0
40
80
120
160
1-H
ou
r O
zo
ne (
pp
b)
1-Hour Ozone
17.115.915.816.215.915.6
14.512.9
11.711.111.310.5
10.3 9.8 9.1
0
4
8
12
16
20
An
nu
al
PM
2.5
(ug
/m3)
Annual Fine Particulate
41 42 41 4139
3735 33
30 29 2927 26 26
2423
0
10
20
30
40
50
Da
ily P
M2.5
(ug
/m3
)
Daily Fine Particulate
8-Hour Ozone
107 107 10494 93 91 89 93
8577 73 76 75
0
40
80
120
8-H
ou
r O
zo
ne (
pp
b)
Note: 2017 Ozone Data is Preliminary.
Let’s focus on two specific
points in time
A Classic Ozone Transport Case Study
2 1 25
18
23
77
50
13
8
30
15
62 2
2 3 510
28
51
128
178
191199
229
244250 252 254
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1995 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
50
100
150
200
250Number of Units
Cumulative Total Units
1.92
1.22
0.59 0.520.38
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1990 2000 2005 2008 2009
Year
Ozo
ne S
easo
n N
OX (
mil
lio
n t
on
s)
.
1.92
1.22
0.59 0.520.38
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1990 2000 2005 2008 2009
Year
Ozo
ne S
easo
n N
OX (
mil
lio
n t
on
s)
.
• The 2003/2004 “NOx SIP Call” as a case study. Significant NOx reductions from Federal Tier 2 Vehicle Standards also occurring in the same time frame
• A classic ozone transport success story
• Incoming ozone levels collect in the elevated reservoir over night
• Real world programs like the NOxSIP Call (power plants) and the Tier 2 Vehicle Standards show that:
• Adding regional controls …
• Results in regional NOx emission reductions …
• Which leads to reduced ozone in the elevated reservoir …
• Which lead to lower ozone at ground level and public health protection!
Morning Elevated Reservoir of Ozone
Above the Mid-Atlantic States
Huge Investment in Selective Catalytic
Reduction (SCR) Control Technology at Eastern
Power Plants in 2003/2004
Regional NOxEmissions Drop
Dramatically in 2004
Ozone Levels in the Elevated Reservoir
Reduced by 25% after 2004
Ground Level Ozone Drops Dramatically in the Same Time
Frame
Maryland's 8-Hour Ozone Design Value per Year
60
80
100
120
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year
8-H
our
Ozone D
esig
n V
alu
e (
ppb)
8-Hour Ozone Design Value (ppb) 8-Hour Ozone Standard (85 ppb)8-Hour Ozone Standard (75 ppb)
Page 5
Why the Drop around 2004?
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
June July August
2009 to 2012
What Changed in 2013 to 2017 Time Frame?
6
2013 to 2017
Maryland’s “Spy” Site … Piney Run
2013 to 2017 Emission Reductions
Ozone season EGU NOx emissions continue to noticeably decrease in
almost all states
▪ Most states had lowest ozone season NOx emissions on record in 2016 and 2017.
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
PA OH IN MI IL KY NC VA NY MD TN NJ WV DE
O3 S
eas
on
NO
x (
To
ns)
State
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
7
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
May June July August Sept
NO
X T
ON
S
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Monthly CAMD NOx Emissions
Emissions of Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland and
the District of Columbia were summed together on a monthly basis
8
After 2
013
IN, OH, WV, VA, PA, MD, DC
Understanding Ozone Transport
It’s complicated … but not that complicated … some key concepts
An “elevated reservoir” of ozone
▪ A transport cloud
▪ An elevated ocean of ozone
▪ The residual layer
Three different types of transport
▪ Westerly Transport – Power plants are a major contributor
▪ Night-time, Southerly Transport – Vehicles, power plants, more
▪ City to City – An urban soup … Washington to Baltimore … Baltimore to Philly … NJ & NY to CT … etc. etc. etc Page 9
Understanding Transport
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105
Ozone (ppb)
He
igh
t (f
t)
Incoming OzoneAugust 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT)
Beltsville, MD
Good Moderate Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Unhealthy
Residual Layer
from 1500 – 6000 ft
of 110 ppb110 ppb
Ozone-reduced surface layer
<< 40 ppb40 ppb
Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105
Ozone (ppb)
He
igh
t (f
t)
Incoming OzoneAugust 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT)
Beltsville, MD
Good Moderate Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
UnhealthyGood Moderate Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Unhealthy
Residual Layer
from 1500 – 6000 ft
of 110 ppb110 ppb
Ozone-reduced surface layer
<< 40 ppb40 ppb
Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University
Residual Layer
from 1500 – 6000 ft
of 110 ppb110 ppb
Ozone-reduced surface layer
<< 40 ppb40 ppb
Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University
… What Is This?This is what we call the “elevated reservoir”
A very large cloud of ozone sitting above Baltimore … Waiting to mix down
This process … ozone building up aloft … mixing down later … is the primary way that transport works
Same Elevated Reservoir - No Longer 110 ppb Aloft … But Aloft levels Are Still Around 70 ppb
Good Moderate USG Unhealthy
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Alt
itu
de
(km
)
Ozone (ppbv)
7/20/2017 2:17am Beltsville, MD
(39.05N, 76.88W)
Understanding Transport in 2017
Ozone Reduced Surface Layer
Residual Layer Aloft 60-75+ ppb
Source: Maryland Department of the Environment and Howard University 11
Watching the Reservoir Mix Down
The gray line – MD ground
level ozone monitors
The colored line – Aloft
monitors … now supplemented
with balloons
Noon
A classic, worst-case event on July 15. 1995
0
10
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30
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60
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90
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Ho
url
y O
zo
ne C
on
cen
trati
on
(p
pb
)
Time (EST)
Aloft Ozone Reservoir (May 25th 2016)
Variations of Near Sea-Level Monitors
Piney Run, MD (Elevated)
Average Porfile of Maryland Monitors (Near Sea-Level)
Methodist Hill, PA (Elevated)
Shenandoah NP, VA (Elevated)
Elevated Reservoir Mixing Down - May 25, 2016
Daily Ozone Pattern - More Recent
NOx Reductions from Space - 2005 to 2014
Source: NASA's Aura Satellite14
Source: NASA's Aura Satellite15
Focusing on the East
NOx Reductions from Space - 2005 to 2014
We Have a Clear Path ForwardWe understand the science of ozone better than everWe’ve implemented programs that have worked in the real worldWe need to continue to implement a two-part strategy
So Where Do We Go From Here?
• Local controls can still help • Can help reduce about 1/3 of the ozone
problem in most Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) cities
• National/super-regional controls of nitrogen oxide (NOx) are critical• We know they work … we know they
reduce ozone across the entire East• In some areas, incoming ozone is already
measured at levels approaching the 70 ppb standard
• Approximately 2/3 of the ozone problem in most Eastern cities
17
A Battleground or an Opportunity?
• Probably the most important SIP we all have in this era of lower ozone– Pretty much everyone’s ozone problem is now transport driven
• Due in October 2018– If we are smart, our Good Neighbor SIPs will all be fairly similar
• Remember … regional NOx reductions work1. Work together technically … collaboratively2. Take EPA guidance with a grain of salt3. Make EPA be a “contributing” partner in a “cooperative federalism” collaboration
with the states … as some of the needed measures only work if done at the super-regional or national level
4. Identify common sense regional NOx control measures - find the Biggest-Bang-For-The-Buck strategies
» Some that are ripe … right now• Aftermarket catalysts• Make progress reducing idling and• Push for power plants to simply run existing controls
5. Put the measures in your Good Neighbor SIP6. Watch the ozone go down and declare victory !!!
Good Neighbor SIPs
Modeling Good Neighbor SIPs
MonitorDesign Value2011
2018EGUs Run Existing Controls
2018Common Sense Regional NOx
Reductions
Harford, MD 90 68.27 67.91
Fairfield, CT 83.7 78.12 77.74
Camden, NJ 82.7 72.82 71.42
Hamilton, OH 82 71.56 70.52
Jefferson, KY 82 70.17 69.37
Fulton, GA 81 70.03 69.85Page 18
What if all of our Good Neighbor SIPs included the following common sense controls:
1. Power plants simply run existing controls2. Aftermarket catalysts that actually work (through a federal action)3. A voluntary effort to try and cut down on unnecessary idling
Except for CT… We’re all looking
pretty good
• The Maryland 126 Petition• 36 EGUs in 5 states upwind of MD• Went legal only after collaboration
through “SCOOT” did not work as well as we had hoped
• No new controls … just run the existing controls that are already installed• Sort of a “when cap-and-trade” doesn’t
always work kind of petition
• Using CAMD 2017 data• Post CSAPR Update and PA RACT2• Still an approximate 100 tpd of NOx
reductions if units simply run their controls the way they were designed to be run … each day of the summer
• 2 to 5 ppb potential modeled ozone benefit in many area
• That’s it … That’s all the MD 126 Petition asks for … really not that radical
Just One Slide …
What if All Units in EastOptimized Their Existing Controls?
20
0.00
2,000.00
4,000.00
6,000.00
8,000.00
10,000.00
12,000.00
14,000.00
16,000.00
18,000.00
AL AR DE FL GA IA IL IN KS KY LA MA MD MI MN MO NC NE NH NJ NY OH PA SC TN TX VA WI WV
NO
x M
ass
(To
ns)
2017 Ozone Season Total NOx Emissions - Actual, Best Rates from Past & Best OS Operating Curve (operating in a lower capacity world)
2017 OS NOx Mass (Tons) 2017 Best OS NOx Mass (Tons) 2017 Operation Curve OS NOx Mass (Tons)
2017 Ozone Season NOx: 161,578 Tons2017 Ozone Season NOx @ Best: 115,116 Tons
Lost NOx Benefit: 46,461 Tons (404 tons/day)2017 Ozone Season NOx @ Best Operating Curve: 121,741Tons
Lost NOx Benefit: 39,837 Tons (340 tons/day)
Maryland’s 2017 State of the Science Presentation
• Focuses on why we have been experiencing the ozone progress we’ve see recently
– More science … less policy … lot’s of transport
– About an hour
– Happy to do a webinar if there is interest
