How is the Climate Changing in the Prairie Provinces? What can we expect in the future?

How is the Climate Changing in the Prairie Provinces?

What can we expect in the future?Elaine Wheaton

Agriculture and Greenhouse Gas/ Climate Change WorkshopSaskatoon, SK December 11-12, 2000

OverviewPast climate changesPast ecosystem changesClimate change factorsGreenhouse gas concentrationsFuture expected climate changesFuture expected climate impacts and adaptations

Global Annual Surface Air TemperaturesThis observed change is unlikely to be due entirely to natural fluctuations of the climate system

1 Huang and Pollack 1999 2 WMO Bulletin 1999 3 IPCC 1996

N. American Air Temperature Trends (1961-1990)

Prairies Temperature Trend(After Gullett and Skinner 1992)

Ecosystem Changes related to Climate Widespread changes in ecosystems are already occurring as affected by these climate changesThese changes are consistent with climate change projections

For example

Long-term snow cover variations for the Western PrairiesThe snow cover season has been shrinking,especially in the last 30 years(after Brown et al. 1995)

A widespread retreat of glaciers is occurring in the northern hemisphere

Glaciers are an important source of river flow for the prairies(Demuth 1996)

Annual Ground Surface Temperature Change (1950 1990)(MBIS, 1997

Frequency of Winter Storms in the Northern Hemisphere

Frost Free Season .is Lengthening

Heating and Cooling Degree-days for Regina and Saskatoon(Wilson, 1990)

Plant Growth Increased in Northern High Latitudes from 1981-1991Associated withlengthening of active growing seasonearlier disappearances of snow covermarked warming in the spring timean advance of up to 7 days in the timing of the drawdown of CO2 in spring and early summerMyneni et al, 1997 Nature 386, 698-701

Time Variations in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for Selected Latitudinal Bands

Other Ecosystem ChangesEdiths Checkerspot butterflies have moved north and to higher elevationsSachem skipper butterflies have expanded their range from N. CA to Oregon and SE WashingtonMexican voles have expanded their range into NE Arizona and ColoradoPrairie grasses are declining in NE Colorado and being replaced with exotic weeds (Levy 2000)There are many more

Climatic Change Factors and their Effects on the Earth's Climate

Analysis demonstrates (statistically significant) that GHGs are the dominant driver of climate changes in the past century.(Mann et al., others)

Greenhouse Gas Time Series

CO2 Trends

Goldilocks Earth

Balance of Evidence Suggests a Discernible Human Influence on Global Climate- IPCC 1996

Future Expected ClimatesClimate Models Agree that:(for mid-latitude N. Hemisphere)Winter temperatures increase faster than summer temperaturesNight temperatures rise faster than day time temperaturesSoil moisture decreases in summer and increases in winterSnow cover area and duration decreasePrecipitation increases in winter, some decreases in summer

Global Mean Temperature Change Global mean temperature change (C) associated with the six IS92 emissions scenarios and the four SRES scenarios. Until recently, GCM experiments generally used the IS92a emissions scenario to define the future forcing. ( Barrow et al, 1999)

Chart1

0.160.160.160.160.160.160.150.150.150.15

0.290.30.310.30.290.290.320.320.320.32

0.420.430.440.450.430.430.440.470.520.5

0.560.560.560.590.570.580.610.590.710.7

0.710.70.690.750.720.750.90.780.90.93

0.880.870.830.910.910.941.21.041.061.13

1.061.040.961.071.111.151.51.331.241.32

1.281.231.091.221.361.381.771.681.41.5

1.51.481.211.371.631.631.992.041.571.67

1.721.691.321.51.931.92.222.381.741.84

1.951.911.41.632.282.22.372.721.91.99

2.182.131.471.752.642.522.493.062.022.13

IS92a

IS92b

IS92c

IS92d

IS92e

IS92f

SRESA1

SRESA2

SRESB1

SRESB2

Year

Global-mean temperature change (C)

Sheet1

CO2YearSO2,1SO2,2SO2,3reg1reg2reg3totalIS92aIS92bIS92cIS92dIS92eIS92fSRESA1SRESA2SRESB1SRESB2KyotoYearFoss CO2Defo CO2dTKyotoIS92adtDdSLRdtdSLR

IS92aIS92bIS92cIS92dIS92eIS92fSRESA1SRESA2SRESB1SRESB2IS92a(Tg S)(Tg S)(Tg S)1990757575757575199075757575(Gt C)(Gt C)Kyoto19900.15330.16WRE550WRE550WRE650WRE650IS92a

19907.47.47.47.37.47.47.37.37.37.3199000037281075199576.62576.62571.92673.41177.18476.279200069.71169.71169.71169.71119906.1091.37.40920000.28880.2919900.15331.8619900.15331.8619900.16

19957.97.97.27.38.287.857.857.857.851995-2.0260.8952.75634.97428.89512.75676.625200078.39577.17971.54673.78880.86679.4201090.7278.02163.04771.44119916.1781.37.47820100.41530.4219950.21872.7819950.21872.7820000.29

20008.48.27.57.59.18.88.48.48.48.42000-4.1091.7615.74332.89129.76115.74378.395200584.86682.45774.39675.50888.35585.622020104.114102.74459.44368.24419926.0841.37.38420200.53930.5620000.29033.8520000.29033.8520100.42

20059.28.87.87.810.29.79.89.28.459.052005-3.0753.4419.533.92531.44119.584.866201091.85288.44778.00976.4797.8693.202203094.734115.2156.7663.1919936.0531.37.35320300.67320.7120050.35435.0420050.35425.0420200.56

20109.99.48.18.211.410.811.2108.59.72010-2.3135.28713.87834.68733.28723.87891.852201598.97996.02681.877.601109.47103.158204081.17111.37956.54262.09919946.2921.37.59220400.83120.8820100.41926.3420100.41936.3420300.71

201510.610.28.38.512.611.912.511.39.0510.12015-1.5847.40918.15435.41635.40928.15498.9792020108.335105.80986.34179.17122.821114.941205067.605108.66954.65960.47119956.5061.37.80620500.99771.0620150.48737.7620150.4887.7720400.88

202011.410.98.58.813.713.113.812.69.610.52020-1.0249.95224.40735.97637.95234.407108.3352025118.188116.42991.74481.088139.779128.07206054.50889.53954.44157.01419966.6691.37.96920601.20431.2820200.55169.2920200.55459.320501.06

202512.211.88.89.315.114.414.3513.79.3510.42025-0.56512.70631.04736.43540.70641.047118.1882050151.956147.91591.12678.658205.184172.531207048.20575.00752.47655.2319976.8161.38.11620701.41141.520250.614710.9120250.621610.9420601.28

205014.513.87.5920.117.21617.610.310.82050-2.3323.7355.55634.6751.7365.556151.9562075150.492142.86669.56769.276239.657194.664208034.02567.53445.52852.36219986.9631.38.26320801.61641.7220300.68612.6220300.698912.6920701.5

207516.315.45.69.32721.214.9521.810.311.92075-5.91521.45259.95531.08549.45269.955150.4922100145.607140.41153.50864.27230.507180.082209032.35265.13937.2251.32419997.111.38.4120901.82941.9520350.759514.4520350.780514.5820801.72

210020.319.14.610.335.826.612.6307.913.52100-8.32823.33955.59628.67251.33965.596145.607210030.67863.5931.90650.6220007.2571.38.55721002.052.1820400.832116.3720400.863316.5920901.95

20057.7331.268.99320450.902318.3820450.945918.7121002.18

CH4IS92aIS92bIS92cIS92dIS92eIS92fSRESA1SRESA2SRESB1SRESB2YearSO2,1SO2,2SO2,320108.1081.229.32820500.9720.4620501.02820.94IS92a

1990506506506506506506322.2322.2322.2322.2is92b(Tg S)(Tg S)(Tg S)total20158.6641.189.84420551.050622.6220551.124623.2919901.9

1995525525510511527525334.5334.5334.5334.519900003728107520209.321.1410.4620601.130324.8820601.221625.7720003.93

2000545545526526556550346.8346.8346.8346.81995-2.0260.8952.75634.97428.89512.75676.62520259.9761.111.07620651.205427.2120651.315328.3620106.49

2005568568540538581580381.8370.45356.8367.752000-4.3651.6214.92332.63529.62114.92377.179205012.5760.813.37620701.275529.5920701.404731.0320209.52

2010588588551548606607416.8394.1366.8388.72005-3.5033.1787.78233.49731.17817.78282.457207514.5860.1514.73620751.34073220751.489833.74203013.02

2015611611563560634637450.3421.2381.3418.12010-2.7924.95511.28434.20832.95521.28488.447210018.396-0.118.29620801.403134.3920801.572236.45204017.08

2020632632574570661666483.8448.3395.8447.52015-2.0937.10916.0134.90735.10926.0196.02620851.461736.7720851.650839.16205021.67

2025659659589584692697515.5477.25399.3474.22020-1.5179.722.62635.48337.732.626105.80920901.516539.1120901.725441.86206026.86

2050785785613619845851514.1621.4443.8537.92025-1.04212.53329.93835.95840.53339.938116.42920951.567641.4320951.795944.54207032.6

20758458455845949581019391.65761.35446.3535.452050-3.67823.53153.06233.32251.53163.062147.91521001.615543.7121001.862647.2208038.32

210091791754656710721168300.6912.7378.8508.42075-9.80921.18856.48727.19149.18866.487142.866209044.53

2100-12.26723.07554.60324.73351.07564.603140.411210050.77

N2OIS92aIS92bIS92cIS92dIS92eIS92fSRESA1SRESA2SRESB1SRESB2

199012.912.912.912.912.912.96.36.36.36.3YearSO2,1SO2,2SO2,3

199513.313.313.113.113.413.36.66.66.66.6is92c(Tg S)(Tg S)(Tg S)total

200013.813.713.613.513.813.86.96.96.96.9199000037281075

200514.114.113.813.814.314.37.17.47.1571995-3.06-0.520.50633.9427.4810.50671.926

201014.514.514.11414.814.77.37.97.47.12000-5.307-0.2782.13131.69327.72212.13171.546

201514.914.914.414.315.215.27.58.657.757.12005-5.1070.3584.14531.89328.35814.14574.396

202015.415.314.714.715.815.77.79.48.17.12010-5.0051.2156.79931.99529.21516.79978.009

202515.815.71515.116.316.27.69.958.26.92015-4.8872.0099.67832.11330.00919.67881.8

205016.616.61515.417.617.26.811.88.962020-4.6422.88913.09432.35830.88923.09486.341

207516.716.714.214.918.118.15.714.158.655.452025-4.4643.82717.38132.53631.82727.38191.744

21001716.913.714.519.1194.916.485.12050-8.1563.88120.40128.84431.88130.40191.126

2075-19.816-1.99516.37817.18426.00526.37869.567

2100-25.979-4.8489.33511.02123.15219.33553.508

YearSO2,1SO2,2SO2,3

is92d(Tg S)(Tg S)(Tg S)total

199000037281075

1995-2.790.141.06134.2128.1411.06173.411

2000-4.8980.772.91632.10228.7712.91673.788

2005-4.3151.2453.57832.68529.24513.57875.508

2010-4.031.3874.11332.9729.38714.11376.47

2015-3.721.554.77133.2829.5514.77177.601

global delta T2020-3.3161.7285.75833.68429.72815.75879.17

IS92aIS92bIS92cIS92dIS92eIS92fSRESA1SRESA2SRESB1SRESB22025-2.8841.9117.06134.11629.91117.06181.088

19900.160.160.160.160.160.160.150.150.150.152050-5.7160.7978.57731.28428.79718.57778.658

20000.290.30.310.30.290.290.320.320.320.322075-14.174-0.3888.83822.82627.61218.83869.276

20100.420.430.440.450.430.430.440.470.520.52100-18.811-1.1799.2618.18926.82119.2664.27

20200.560.560.560.590.570.580.610.590.710.7

20300.710.70.690.750.720.750.90.780.90.93YearSO2,1SO2,2SO2,3

20400.880.870.830.910.910.941.21.041.061.13is92e(Tg S)(Tg S)(Tg S)total

20501.061.040.961.071.111.151.51.331.241.32199000037281075

20601.281.231.091.221.361.381.771.681.41.51995-1.8771.322.74135.12329.3212.74177.184

20701.51.481.211.371.631.631.992.041.571.672000-3.3292.8776.31833.67130.87716.31880.866

20801.721.691.321.51.931.92.222.381.741.842005-1.8475.3589.84435.15333.35819.84488.355

20901.951.911.41.632.282.22.372.721.91.992010-0.6398.6714.82936.36136.6724.82997.86

21002.182.131.471.752.642.522.493.062.022.1320150.60912.2121.65137.60940.2131.651109.47

20201.76616.30929.74638.76644.30939.746122.821

SLR20252.76920.9241.0939.76948.9251.09139.779

IS92aIS92bIS92cIS92dIS92eIS92fSRESA1SRESA2SRESB1SRESB220504.44240.7684.98241.44268.7694.982205.184

19901.91.91.91.91.91.91.861.861.861.8620750.97542.659121.02337.97570.659131.023239.657

20003.933.943.983.973.933.943.943.943.943.942100-3.05842.332116.23333.94270.332126.233230.507

20106.496.516.556.546.546.556.526.626.756.69

20209.529.519.469.599.679.79.79.7110.1710.13YearSO2,1SO2,2SO2,3

203013.0212.9312.6913.0713.3213.4113.8613.3914.1414.27is92f(Tg S)(Tg S)(Tg S)total

204017.0816.9116.3117.0217.6217.819.0717.9718.4818.97199000037281075

205021.6721.420.1921.3322.5922.8125.1323.523.224.081995-2.1641.0152.42834.83629.01512.42876.279

206026.8626.4924.325.9528.3428.531.8330.0728.2729.542000-3.7512.3835.76833.24930.38315.76879.4

207032.632.1528.5930.7834.7534.6638.5737.5233.5635.122005-2.5034.258.87334.49732.2518.87385.62

208038.3237.7732.735.3341.5241.1245.245.438.8940.672010-1.5566.91612.84235.44434.91622.84293.202

209044.5343.8136.640.0249.0448.1751.6253.644.1946.182015-0.4499.95418.65336.55137.95428.653103.158

210050.7749.9140.4444.6757.0755.6157.6762.149.3151.6320200.55613.32526.0637.55641.32536.06114.941

20251.43916.84734.78438.43944.84744.784128.07

20500.29429.57667.66137.29457.57677.661172.531

2075-1.07428.28792.45135.92656.287102.451194.664

2100-4.11627.26981.92932.88455.26991.929180.082

YearSO2,1SO2,2SO2,3

sresa1(Tg S)(Tg S)(Tg S)total

199000037281075

2000-8.4851.7621.43428.51529.76211.43469.711

2010-14.51321.6178.61622.48749.61718.61690.72

2020-18.51733.68613.94518.48361.68623.945104.114

2030-21.48324.27816.93915.51752.27826.93994.734

2040-23.5695.0324.70913.43133.0334.70981.17

2050-25.654-14.21932.47811.34613.78142.47867.605

2060-26.344-14.59420.44610.65613.40630.44654.508

2070-26.784-14.5714.55910.21613.4324.55948.205

2080-27.647-15.2761.9489.35312.72411.94834.025

2090-28.181-15.5161.0498.81912.48411.04932.352

2100-28.716-15.7560.158.28412.24410.1530.678

YearSO2,1SO2,2SO2,3

sresa2(Tg S)(Tg S)(Tg S)total

199000037281075

2000-8.4851.7621.43428.51529.76211.43469.711

2010-17.07115.3384.75419.92943.33814.75478.021

2020-15.9931.00512.72921.0159.00522.729102.744

2030-15.57836.06519.72321.42264.06529.723115.21

2040-16.16932.06420.48420.83160.06430.484111.379

2050-16.69928.49321.87520.30156.49331.875108.669

2060-19.16117.48316.21717.83945.48326.21789.539

2070-21.1299.01312.12315.87137.01322.12375.007

2080-21.764.08410.2115.2432.08420.2167.534

2090-21.3011.42610.01415.69929.42620.01465.139

2100-20.767-0.93110.28816.23327.06920.28863.59

YearSO2,1SO2,2SO2,3

sresb1(Tg S)(Tg S)(Tg S)

199000037281075

2000-8.4851.7621.43428.51529.76211.43469.711

2010-19.4113.9933.46517.58931.99313.46563.047

2020-24.0463.6314.85812.95431.63114.85859.443

2030-25.3711.4525.67911.62929.45215.67956.76

2040-26.2610.4727.33110.73928.47217.33156.542

2050-26.881-2.619.1510.11925.3919.1554.659

2060-27.286-3.85310.589.71424.14720.5854.441

2070-27.787-7.61912.8829.21320.38122.88252.476

2080-28.346-11.77710.6518.65416.22320.65145.528

2090-28.579-14.8415.648.42113.15915.6437.22

2100-29.254-17.0863.2467.74610.91413.24631.906

YearSO2,1SO2,2SO2,3

sresb2(Tg S)(Tg S)(Tg S)total

199000037281075

2000-8.4851.7621.43428.51529.76211.43469.711

2010-14.779.671.54122.2337.6711.54171.441

2020-22.38212.8562.7714.61840.85612.7768.244

2030-28.71613.6663.248.28441.66613.2463.19

2040-30.38712.9554.5316.61340.95514.53162.099

2050-30.85510.7455.5816.14538.74515.58160.471

2060-29.9594.9017.0727.04132.90117.07257.014

2070-29.7572.2997.6887.24330.29917.68855.23

2080-29.414-0.3547.137.58627.64617.1352.362

2090-28.81-1.4546.5888.1926.54616.58851.324

2100-28.021-1.7775.4188.97926.22315.41850.62

&A

Page &P

Sheet1

7.47.47.47.37.47.47.37.37.37.3

7.97.97.27.38.287.857.857.857.85

8.48.27.57.59.18.88.48.48.48.4

9.28.87.87.810.29.79.89.28.459.05

9.99.48.18.211.410.811.2108.59.7

10.610.28.38.512.611.912.511.39.0510.1

11.410.98.58.813.713.113.812.69.610.5

12.211.88.89.315.114.414.3513.79.3510.4

14.513.87.5920.117.21617.610.310.8

16.315.45.69.32721.214.9521.810.311.9

20.319.14.610.335.826.612.6307.913.5

&A

Page &P

IS92a

IS92b

IS92c

IS92d

IS92e

IS92f

SRESA1

SRESA2

SRESB1

SRESB2

Year

CO2 emissions (Pg C yr-1)

charts

506506506506506506322.2322.2322.2322.2

525525510511527525334.5334.5334.5334.5

545545526526556550346.8346.8346.8346.8

568568540538581580381.8370.45356.8367.75

588588551548606607416.8394.1366.8388.7

611611563560634637450.3421.2381.3418.1

632632574570661666483.8448.3395.8447.5

659659589584692697515.5477.25399.3474.2

785785613619845851514.1621.4443.8537.9

8458455845949581019391.65761.35446.3535.45

91791754656710721168300.6912.7378.8508.4

&A

Page &P

IS92a

IS92b

IS92c

IS92d

IS92e

IS92f

SRESA1

SRESA2

SRESB1

SRESB2

Year

CH4 emissions (Tg yr-1)

Sheet3

12.912.912.912.912.912.96.36.36.36.3

13.313.313.113.113.413.36.66.66.66.6

13.813.713.613.513.813.86.96.96.96.9

14.114.113.813.814.314.37.17.47.157

14.514.514.11414.814.77.37.97.47.1

14.914.914.414.315.215.27.58.657.757.1

15.415.314.714.715.815.77.79.48.17.1

15.815.71515.116.316.27.69.958.26.9

16.616.61515.417.617.26.811.88.96

16.716.714.214.918.118.15.714.158.655.45

1716.913.714.519.1194.916.485.1

&A

Page &P

IS92a

IS92b

IS92c

IS92d

IS92e

IS92f

SRESA1

SRESA2

SRESB1

SRESB2

Year

N2O emissions (Tg N yr-1)

Sheet4

0.160.160.160.160.160.160.150.150.150.15

0.290.30.310.30.290.290.320.320.320.32

0.420.430.440.450.430.430.440.470.520.5

0.560.560.560.590.570.580.610.590.710.7

0.710.70.690.750.720.750.90.780.90.93

0.880.870.830.910.910.941.21.041.061.13

1.061.040.961.071.111.151.51.331.241.32

1.281.231.091.221.361.381.771.681.41.5

1.51.481.211.371.631.631.992.041.571.67

1.721.691.321.51.931.92.222.381.741.84

1.951.911.41.632.282.22.372.721.91.99

2.182.131.471.752.642.522.493.062.022.13

&A

Page &P

IS92a

IS92b

IS92c

IS92d

IS92e

IS92f

SRESA1

SRESA2

SRESB1

SRESB2

Year


Sheet5

1.91.91.91.91.91.91.861.861.861.86

3.933.943.983.973.933.943.943.943.943.94

6.496.516.556.546.546.556.526.626.756.69

9.529.519.469.599.679.79.79.7110.1710.13

13.0212.9312.6913.0713.3213.4113.8613.3914.1414.27

17.0816.9116.3117.0217.6217.819.0717.9718.4818.97

21.6721.420.1921.3322.5922.8125.1323.523.224.08

26.8626.4924.325.9528.3428.531.8330.0728.2729.54

32.632.1528.5930.7834.7534.6638.5737.5233.5635.12

38.3237.7732.735.3341.5241.1245.245.438.8940.67

44.5343.8136.640.0249.0448.1751.6253.644.1946.18

50.7749.9140.4444.6757.0755.6157.6762.149.3151.63

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IS92a

IS92b

IS92c

IS92d

IS92e

IS92f

SRESA1

SRESA2

SRESB1

SRESB2

Year

Global-mean sea level rise (cm)

Sheet6

75757575757575757575

69.71169.71169.71169.71176.62576.62571.92673.41177.18476.279

90.7278.02163.04771.44178.39577.17971.54673.78880.86679.4

104.114102.74459.44368.24484.86682.45774.39675.50888.35585.62

94.734115.2156.7663.1991.85288.44778.00976.4797.8693.202

81.17111.37956.54262.09998.97996.02681.877.601109.47103.158

67.605108.66954.65960.471108.335105.80986.34179.17122.821114.941

54.50889.53954.44157.014118.188116.42991.74481.088139.779128.07

48.20575.00752.47655.23151.956147.91591.12678.658205.184172.531

34.02567.53445.52852.362150.492142.86669.56769.276239.657194.664

32.35265.13937.2251.324145.607140.41153.50864.27230.507180.082

30.67863.5931.90650.62

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SRESA1

SRESA2

SRESB1

SRESB2

IS92a

IS92b

IS92c

IS92d

IS92e

IS92f

Year

SO2 emissions (TgS)

Sheet7

7.4097.4

7.4787.9

7.3848.4

7.3539.2

7.5929.9

7.80610.6

7.96911.4

8.11612.2

8.26314.5

8.4116.3

8.55720.3

8.993

9.328

9.844

10.46

11.076

13.376

14.736

18.296

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Kyoto

IS92a

Year

CO2 emissions (PgC yr-1)

Sheet8

0.15330.16

0.28880.29

0.41530.42

0.53930.56

0.67320.71

0.83120.88

0.99771.06

1.20431.28

1.41141.5

1.61641.72

1.82941.95

2.052.18

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Kyoto

IS92a

Year


Sheet9

0.15330.15330.16

0.21870.21870.29

0.29030.29030.42

0.35430.35420.56

0.41920.41930.71

0.48730.4880.88

0.55160.55451.06

0.61470.62161.28

0.6860.69891.5

0.75950.78051.72

0.83210.86331.95

0.90230.94592.18

0.971.028

1.05061.1246

1.13031.2216

1.20541.3153

1.27551.4047

1.34071.4898

1.40311.5722

1.46171.6508

1.51651.7254

1.56761.7959

1.61551.8626

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WRE550

WRE650

IS92a

Year


Sheet10

1.861.861.9

2.782.783.93

3.853.856.49

5.045.049.52

6.346.3413.02

7.767.7717.08

9.299.321.67

10.9110.9426.86

12.6212.6932.6

14.4514.5838.32

16.3716.5944.53

18.3818.7150.77

20.4620.94

22.6223.29

24.8825.77

27.2128.36

29.5931.03

3233.74

34.3936.45

36.7739.16

39.1141.86

41.4344.54

43.7147.2

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WRE550

WRE650

IS92a

Year

Global-mean sea level change (cm)

Sheet11

fig5.1a

fig5.1b

fig 5.2

fig 5.3

fig 5.6a

fig 5.6b

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Sheet11

7.47.47.47.37.47.47.37.37.37.3

7.97.97.27.38.287.857.857.857.85

8.48.27.57.59.18.88.48.48.48.4

9.28.87.87.810.29.79.89.28.459.05

9.99.48.18.211.410.811.2108.59.7

10.610.28.38.512.611.912.511.39.0510.1

11.410.98.58.813.713.113.812.69.610.5

12.211.88.89.315.114.414.3513.79.3510.4

14.513.87.5920.117.21617.610.310.8

16.315.45.69.32721.214.9521.810.311.9

20.319.14.610.335.826.612.6307.913.5

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IS92a

IS92b

IS92c

IS92d

IS92e

IS92f

SRESA1

SRESA2

SRESB1

SRESB2

Year

CO2 emissions (Pg C yr-1)

Sheet12

75757575757575757575

69.71169.71169.71169.71176.62576.62571.92673.41177.18476.279

90.7278.02163.04771.44178.39577.17971.54673.78880.86679.4

104.114102.74459.44368.24484.86682.45774.39675.50888.35585.62

94.734115.2156.7663.1991.85288.44778.00976.4797.8693.202

81.17111.37956.54262.09998.97996.02681.877.601109.47103.158

67.605108.66954.65960.471108.335105.80986.34179.17122.821114.941

54.50889.53954.44157.014118.188116.42991.74481.088139.779128.07

48.20575.00752.47655.23151.956147.91591.12678.658205.184172.531

34.02567.53445.52852.362150.492142.86669.56769.276239.657194.664

32.35265.13937.2251.324145.607140.41153.50864.27230.507180.082

30.67863.5931.90650.62

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SRESA1

SRESA2

SRESB1

SRESB2

IS92a

IS92b

IS92c

IS92d

IS92e

IS92f

Year

SO2 emissions (TgS)

Sheet13

0.160.160.160.160.160.160.150.150.150.15

0.290.30.310.30.290.290.320.320.320.32

0.420.430.440.450.430.430.440.470.520.5

0.560.560.560.590.570.580.610.590.710.7

0.710.70.690.750.720.750.90.780.90.93

0.880.870.830.910.910.941.21.041.061.13

1.061.040.961.071.111.151.51.331.241.32

1.281.231.091.221.361.381.771.681.41.5

1.51.481.211.371.631.631.992.041.571.67

1.721.691.321.51.931.92.222.381.741.84

1.951.911.41.632.282.22.372.721.91.99

2.182.131.471.752.642.522.493.062.022.13

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IS92a

IS92b

IS92c

IS92d

IS92e

IS92f

SRESA1

SRESA2

SRESB1

SRESB2

Year


Sheet14

1.91.91.91.91.91.91.861.861.861.86

3.933.943.983.973.933.943.943.943.943.94

6.496.516.556.546.546.556.526.626.756.69

9.529.519.469.599.679.79.79.7110.1710.13

13.0212.9312.6913.0713.3213.4113.8613.3914.1414.27

17.0816.9116.3117.0217.6217.819.0717.9718.4818.97

21.6721.420.1921.3322.5922.8125.1323.523.224.08

26.8626.4924.325.9528.3428.531.8330.0728.2729.54

32.632.1528.5930.7834.7534.6638.5737.5233.5635.12

38.3237.7732.735.3341.5241.1245.245.438.8940.67

44.5343.8136.640.0249.0448.1751.6253.644.1946.18

50.7749.9140.4444.6757.0755.6157.6762.149.3151.63

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IS92a

IS92b

IS92c

IS92d

IS92e

IS92f

SRESA1

SRESA2

SRESB1

SRESB2

Year

Global-mean sea level rise (cm)

Sheet15

0.15330.15330.16

0.21870.21870.29

0.29030.29030.42

0.35430.35420.56

0.41920.41930.71

0.48730.4880.88

0.55160.55451.06

0.61470.62161.28

0.6860.69891.5

0.75950.78051.72

0.83210.86331.95

0.90230.94592.18

0.971.028

1.05061.1246

1.13031.2216

1.20541.3153

1.27551.4047

1.34071.4898

1.40311.5722

1.46171.6508

1.51651.7254

1.56761.7959

1.61551.8626

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WRE550

WRE650

IS92a

Year


Sheet16

1.861.861.9

2.782.783.93

3.853.856.49

5.045.049.52

6.346.3413.02

7.767.7717.08

9.299.321.67

10.9110.9426.86

12.6212.6932.6

14.4514.5838.32

16.3716.5944.53

18.3818.7150.77

20.4620.94

22.6223.29

24.8825.77

27.2128.36

29.5931.03

3233.74

34.3936.45

36.7739.16

39.1141.86

41.4344.54

43.7147.2

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WRE550

WRE650

IS92a

Year

Global-mean sea level change (cm)

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Projected Winter Average Temperature Change 2010 to 2039http://www.cics.uvic.ca/

Projected Winter Average Temperature Change 2040 to 2059http://www.cics.uvic.ca/

Projected Summer Average Temperature Change 2010 to 2029http://www.cics.uvic.ca/

Projected Summer Average Temperature Change 2040 to 2059http://www.cics.uvic.ca/

Comparison of Observed and Modeled ClimatesGeneral patterns and global temperatures are reasonably simulated.CGCM1 Simulation of 20th Century Change

Expected Changes in Extreme Weather- ExamplesThunderstorms and hail events to increaseNumber of heat waves to riseNumber of cold spells to decreaseNorthward shift of tornado and dust storm alleysDroughts and floods to increase and intensify

Surprises?? Abrupt climate changes within decades have occurred before and are even more possible now

Annual Number of Hot Days - Now and in the Future

Drought and Flood Frequencies -Now and in the Future

Some Projected Agroclimatic FuturesLonger growing seasonsMore frequent extremes drought, floods, heat waves, hail storms, dust storms, wind storms, etc.Decreased snow cover area and spring re-chargeIncreasing demands for water and conflicts over waterNorthward expansion of insects and diseasesDecreasing air, soil, and water qualityDecreasing space heating demands, increasing air conditioning demands

Adaptation FrameworkADAPTATIONShare the LossBear the LossModify the EventsPrevent the EffectsResearchEducation, BehavioralAvoid the ImpactsStructural, TechnologicalLegislative, Regulatory, FinancialInstitutional, AdministrativeMarket-basedOn-site OperationsChange UseChange Location

Adaptation Research and Monitoring NeedsDrought and frost tolerant cropsHeat stress effects on livestockWater and soil conservationIrrigation improvementsMore fall seeding of cropsMore & improved climate information for management and planning

Adaptation Research and Monitoring NeedsModeling of climate-production-management relationshipsNutrient managementEnhanced communication among producers, climatologists, agrologists, and policy makersPreparation/coping with extreme events

Enhanced Monitoring

SRCs Saskatoon Climate Reference Station (C.Beaulieu)

More Climate Impacts and Adaptation Information

Public accessible information

More Collaborative Climate Impacts and Adaptation ResearchThe Prairie Adaptation Research Cooperative is a facilitative, interdisciplinary research network established to understand the potential impacts of climate change on the Canadian Prairie Provinces and conduct research necessary to develop appropriate adaptation strategies.www.parc.ca

C. Beaulieu

1988 Palmer Drought Index for the Prairies

Earths Heat Engine

Global Temperatures Comparison ofSimulated by CGCM1Historical and Modeled Patterns

Observed warming in the 1900s is significantly above natural variability (as demonstrated by both paleoclimate and GCM estimates of natural variability (Grassl 2000)Increase is approximately 0.6 C since 19001990 was the warmest decade of the past 5 centuries1The global temperature has risen faster in the past 20 years than in any other 20 year period on record2An emerging human-induced climate change signal has been detected3

1 Huang and Pollack 19992 WMO Bulletin 19993 IPCC 1996

Bulls-eye of greatest change is over the Canadian Prairies and into the NW(After Gullett and Skinner 1992) Time span 1885 - 1991Regional and global warming has already occurred. This warming has already begun to affect ecosystems in measurable impacts. In other words, regional warming is already affecting ecosystems.1 after Brown et al. 19951 Demuth 1996(MBIS) pg 108Patterns of temperature in the upper soil layers over time and space also show significant increase over the past several decades. These patterns are driven by the increase in air temperature, moderated by land cover, etc. and substantiate the reality of the increase in air temperatures.(Levy 2000)

Paul Opler butterfly Ediths Checkerspot(Mann et al., others)Climatic Change Factors and their Effects on the Earth's Climate (IPCC 1996)Aerosols are now thought to cause some slight warming.These are the main greenhouse gases. They have increased substantially over the past century.Carbon dioxide is a primary GHG, but the rest have a strong cumulative effect.Carbon dioxide concentrations are higher now than they have been for about 100,000 yThe natural greenhouse effect keeps the Earth about 33 C warmer than it would be otherwise.Mars has less atmosphere with less GHG, so it has deep-freeze temperaturesVenus has so much GHG that it has a runaway greenhouse effect and is an oven.Represents a conservative viewpointMost GCMs have used IS92a (approx. 1% compound increase in equivalent CO2) as their forcing scenario. HadCM2 has also undertaken some experiments using IS92d (approx. 0.5% compound increase in equiv. CO2).Modelling centres now undertaking experiments using forcing scenarios based on the SRES. IPCC have recommended the use of A2 and B2, if computing time, money etc. are limiting. CCCma have already completed single experiments using A2 and B2 forcing, and will be doing two more runs for each, i.e., so an ensemble consisting of three members will exist for each.Leads: Elaine Barrow Science (Canadian Institute for Climate Studies)Fred Herfst - Project Management (Canadian Institute for Climate Studies)Roger Street - Project Director s(Meteorological Service of Canada)CGCM1 Can. Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis Global Coupled Model 1GAC- Greenhouse gas with aerosol simulation meanCGCM1 Simulation of 20th Century Change from Lemmen etal pp presentation on Aelaine Presentations, Ted oBrienThe Canadian Prairies are characterized by extreme events. These cause significant damage and disruption.Forestry farm Thanksgiving snow storm Oct 1998Fire - This awsome picture was taken in the Bitterroot National Forest in Montana on August 6, 2000 by a fire behavior analyst from Fairbanks, Alaska by the name of John McColgan with a Digital camera. Since he was working while he took the picture, he cannot sell or profit from it so he should at least be recognized as the photographer of this once in a lifetime shotHail from a tornado-OklahomaLightening OklahomaTornado west of Saskatoon 1999Source: Ian Burton (date?)http://www.breedersworld.com/pcwinners.htmlhttp://www.city.winnipeg.mb.ca/interhom/profile/flood/flood19.htmSaskatchewan Research Council Climate Reference StationStevenson screen (manual temperature) Global Radiation, Diffuse RadiationEspecially for understanding the complex climate system, its impacts and adaptations to these impactsClouds after the tornado west of SaskatoonFrancis W Zwiers. Towards the Development of Scenarios for Impacts and Adaptation Research in Canada. The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Atmospheric Environment Service. (Power Point Pres`n.)

Documents

How is the Climate Changing in the Prairie Provinces? What can we expect in the future?