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HOW OUR FUTURE IS SHAPED BY TECHNOLOGY #FUTURETECH
CAROLE HOFMANN / www.carolehofmann.net
EARTH4.5 BILLION YEARS
HIGHER LIFE (CAMBRIAN EXPLOSION)540 MILLION YEARS
PRIMITIVE PRIMATES55 MILLION YEARS
HOMO SAPIENS200'000 YEARS
CIVILIZATION (SUMERIANS MESOPOTAMIA) 6'000 YEARS
TECHNOLOGY (INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION) 250 YEARS
HIGH TECH50 YEARS
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WHERE DO WE COME FROM
WE ARE ON AN EXPONENTIAL TRAJECTORY
Years
-7'000 0-6'000 -2'000-4'000-5'000 1'000 2'000 3'000-2.5m
OldStoneAge
-3'000 -1'000
1bn
2bn
3bn
4bn
5bn
6bn
7bn
8bn
9bn
10bn
NewStoneAge
BronzeAge
IronAge
Middle Age
Modern Age
PlanetarAge
Inter-planetar
AgePopulation
11bn
Computing Power
10^0
10^10
10^20
10^30
10^40
10^50
10^60
Source: https://www.futurefounders.group
Kardashev 0 Kardashev IIKardashev I
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TECHNOLOGY ACCELERATION – #TECHTECH
Source: http://www.singularity.com/charts/page70.html
COMPUTING POWER EQUIVALENCE
BRAINPOWER OF A MOUSE: 2015
BRAINPOWER OF A HUMAN: EST. 2023
BRAINPOWER OF ALL HUMANS: EST. 2055
MEDIAN OF SINGULARITY PROJECTIONS: 2045
Technology grows at exponential rate (self-reinforcing)and powers acceleration in every other sector
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ADOPTION ACCELERATION
Number of years it took each product to gain 50 million users:
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TECH OUTPERFORMS ALL OTHER SECTORS
Source: http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/419741/tech-funds-outperform-global-equities
TECH POWERS DIGITZATION
AI POWERS AUTOMATION
WE ARE JUST AT THE BEGINNING OF UBIQUITOUS DIGITIZAITON AND AUTOMATION OF EVERYTHING
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TECH OUTPERFORMS ALL OTHER SECTORS
Page 7 Source: https://www.visceralbusiness.com/latest-news/ten-years-digital-transformation
LARGEST GLOBAL COMPANIES BY MARKET CAPITALIZATION
2008Rank Company Founded USbn1 PetroChina 1999 7282 Exxon 1870 4923 General Electric 1892 3584 China Mobile 1997 3445 ICBC (China) 1984 3366 Gazprom (Russia) 1989 3327 Microsoft 1975 3138 Royal Dutch Shell 1907 2669 Sinopec (China) 2000 25710 AT&T 1885 238
2018Rank Company Founded USbn1 Apple 1976 8902 Google 1998 7683 Microsoft 1975 6804 Amazon 1994 5925 Facebook 2004 5456 Tencent (China) 1998 5267 Berkshire 1955 4968 Alibaba (China) 1999 4889 J&J 1886 38010 JP Morgan 1971 375
FUTURE ACCELERATION
Bill Gates
"We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten."
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WHERE ARE WE GOING FROM HERE
BRAIN ENHANCEMENTSROBOT TOYSEST. 2020
CYBORGSEST. 2060
BRAIN IMPLANTSROBOT FRIENDSEST. 2040
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ROBOT TOYS
Jeff Bezos
"Taking my new dogfor a walk at the #MARS2018 conference. #BostonDynamics"
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THE BACKBONE OF TECH
EVERYTHING RUNS ON ELECTRICITY
NO ELECTRICITY –NO TECH
POWER OUTAGES CAN BRING US BACK TO STONE AGE IN NO TIME
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INFLECTION POINTS
#1 DIGITIZATION Computing cost went down to almost zero, resulting in the digitization of everything and decentralized and ubiquitous access to information through the Internet.
#2 AUTOMATIONEnergy cost will go down to almost zero, resulting in the automation of everything and decentralized and ubiquitous access to production (industrial and agricultural) through robotics, 3D printing and artificial intelligence.
#3 HUMANIZATIONLiving cost will go down to almost zero, resulting in decentralized and ubiquitous access to everything.
1950-2000
2000-2050
2050-2100
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ELECTRICITY COST CONVERGING TO ZERO
Source: http://peakoil.com/alternative-energy/trends-in-the-cost-of-energy
ELECTRICITY COST FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES TO BE BELOW USD 0.02/kWh BY 2030
FURTHER SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES WILL MAKE ELECTRICITY ALMOST FREE BY 2050
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RESOURCE CONSUMPTION
Source: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227439237_Crop_Breeding_for_Low_Input_Agriculture_A_Sustainable_Response_to_Feed_a_Growing_World_Population
RESOURCE CONSUMPTION AT CURRENT LEVEL OF INEFFICIENCY IS NOT SUSTAINABLE
> RESOURCE CONFLICTS> STRANDED ASSETS
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#FUTURETECH
Jack Ma @ WEF 2017
"The next 30 years arecritical for the world"Page 15
#FUTURETECH
Picture: IBM Q cryostat used to keep IBM’s 50-qubit quantum computer cold in the IBM Q lab in Yorktown Heights/NY
TECHNOLOGIES AND SOLUTIONS THAT TRANSFORM HUMANITY INTO A SUSTAINABLE LIFE FORM ON THIS PLANET.
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WHERE WE NEED SUSTAINABLE TECHNOLOGIES & SOLUTIONS
HUMAN SOCIETAL ORGANIZATION SYSTEMS
AND STRUCTURES
EVERYTHING ORGANIC INCLUDING FLORA,
FAUNA, AND HUMANS
ALL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND INFRASTRUCTURE
SOCIETAL ORGANIZATION
INDUSTRY & INFRASTRUCTURE BIOSPHERE
Page 17
ENERGYCLEAN DECENTRALIZED ENERGY UNITS, ENERGY OUT OF THIN AIR (CO2-TO-FUELS), EFFICIENT ENERGY STORAGE
CIRCULAR ECONOMYRESOURCE EFFICIENCY, WASTE AND POLLUTION SOLUTIONS, BIODEGRADEABLE PLASTICS, NANOFABRICATION
AUTOMATIONAI, IOT, ROBOTICS, DRONES, AUTONOMOUS MANUFACTURING, 3D-PRINTING
MOBILITYAUTONOMOUS CARS, AUTONOMOUS PASSENGER DRONES (FLYING CARS)
SPACETECHWARP DRIVE, SPACECRAFTS, SPACE DRONES, ASTEROID MINING, SPACE NATIONS
FUTURETECH AREAS & TRENDS
FOODTECH & AGRITECHCO2-TO-PROTEIN, CLEAN AND PLANT-BASED MEATS, BIOSPHERE RESTORATION, WATER ABUNDANCE
HUMAN HEALTH & UPGRADESGENETIC EDITING, MIND INTERFACE, BIONIC IMPLANTS, CYBORGIZATION, DELAYED AGING
SOCIETAL ORGANIZATIONUBIQUITOUS EDUCATION, SOCIETAL TRANSACTION SYSTEMS, AI-BASED LEGISLATION, PLANETARIAN SOCIETY
YET UNSOLVEDTRANSMUTATION, BEAMING, ANTI-GRAVITY TECHNOLOGY, TIME TRAVEL, EFFECTIVE CLOAKING, QUANTUM LEVEL INTERFACES, IMMORTALITY
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ENERGY
ENERGY EFFICIENCY & STORAGEGraphene batteries, high-temperature superconductors, superconductivity solutions, liquid coolingForm Energy, Quidnet Energy, EcoSwing, SwissVaultSystems, Samsung, Honda, QuantumScape
CLEAN DECENTRALIZED ENERGYOff Grid Box, M-KOPA, Rafiki Power, FirstSolar, SALt
ENERGY OUT OF THIN AIR (CO2-TO-FUELS) & WATERAtmospheric energy harvesters, bioinspired light-escalated chemistry, artificial photosynthesis, hydrothermal carbonisation Carbon Engineering, ClimeWorks, CarbonCure, Global Algae Innovations, Electrochaea, Blest Co, Biochar, Nanoflowcell
ClimeWorks
Off Grid BoxPage 19
CIRCULAR ECONOMY
RESOURCE EFFICIENCYNanofabricators
WASTE AND POLLUTION SOLUTIONSMicrobes, enzymes, fungi and insects eating plastic, waste-to-energy, total recycling, nano-coated surfacesPlastic Bank, Loowatt, Goodr, Airlite
BIODEGRADEABLE PLASTICSSolegear, GreenMatters, Jaus’n Wrap, Avanieco, Agari, Saltwater Brewery, TemperPack, Lego
SUSTAINABLE HOUSINGModular, self-sufficient housingAktivhaus, Module, Mirreco
Aktivhaus
Agari
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AUTOMATION
AI, IOT, ASSISTANTSMachine Learning, automation of transformation and transaction tasks, automation of interaction tasks, AI assistantsGamalon, Enterprise Bot, Blue Prism, iFlytek, Waverly Labs, Megvii, SenseTime, Face++, ByteDance
ROBOTICS, DRONES, AUTONOMOUS MANUFACTURINGManufacturing robots and drones, drone farming, householdrobots, exoskeletonsBioCarbon Engineering, Kindred AI, Tellus Labs, Boston Dynamics, ANYbotics, JD.com
3D-PRINTINGSwarmbot printing systems, 3D-printing from recycled materials, molecular factoriesCarbon, Desktop Metal, MakerBot Replicator, Mirreco, Mattershift
QUANTUM COMPUTINGQuantum based AI, quantum cryptography, quantum ledgers
iFlytek
JD,comPage 21
MOBILITY
AUTONOMOUS CARS AND TRANSPORTSelf-driving cars, self-driving trucks, electric shipsWaymo (Google), Tesla, Uber
AUTONOMOUS PASSENGER DRONES (FLYING CARS)Skyports and flying carsUber, Renault, Airbus, Lilium, JetCapsule
ELECTRIC AIRCRAFTSAircrafts running on electricity instead of jet fuelsRolls Royce, Eviation, Zunum Aero
Airbus
Renault
JetCapsulePage 22
SPACETECH
WARP DRIVE (EM DRIVE)Resonant cavity thruster / electromagnetic driveNASA, China, Satellite Propulsion Research
SPACECRAFTS & SPACE DRONESSpaceX, Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, BreaktroughStarshot, SpaceIL
ASTEROID / SPACE MININGDyson spheres, space harvestingDeep Space Industries
SPACE NATIONSAsgardia, Analemma
Asgardia
EM DrivePage 23
FOODTECH & AGRITECH
CO2-TO-PROTEINKiverdi
CLEAN AND PLANT-BASED MEATSVegan meat, lab-grown meat, protein replacement, insectsImpossible Foods, Beyond Meat, Memphis Meats, MosaMeat, Sunfed Meats, Iceland Foods, FAIRR, North AtlanticOrganics, Protix
BIOSPHERE RESTORATIONReforestation and recultivation with CO2 certificates, urban and vertical farming, permacultureBioCarbon Engineering, Sundrop Farms, Milan, Nanjing, Lizhou, Singapore, I-PES food, Pivot Bio
WATER ABUNDANCEWater from thin air, rain-making, low-energy waterdesalination, solar farmingInfinite Cooling, G2O Water, WaterSeer, Zero Mass Water, WeDew, OffGridBox, MIT, Pipe
Impossible Foods
Sundrop Farms
SingaporePage 24
GENETIC EDITING (BIOHACKING)CRISPR, 23andme, The Odin
PERSONALIZED MEDICINENanobots, ingestible chips
VR / AR / DIGITAL LIFEHololens, Oculus Rift, Watrix (China), Leap Motion, 6D.ai, Akonia Holographics (Apple)
MIND INTERFACENeuralink, Quantima, and – how not to do it: Nectome
BIONIC IMPLANTS, CYBORGIZATIONSynthetic organs, bionic limbs, brain implantsDARPA, Paradromics, Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Technology, The Vine, Superflex, Hyundai
DELAYED AGINGUnity Biotechnology, University of New South Wales, Salk Institute for Biological Studies, University of Nottingham, Ambrosia Plasma, Calico (Google)
HUMAN HEALTH & UPGRADES
The Vine
Neuralink
DARPAPage 25
SOCIETAL ORGANIZATION
EDUCATION & TALENTUbiquitous education and talent management, instant translationUdacity, MIT Open Courseware, Class Central, Coursera, Khan Academy, Byju, AI4ALL, Khonvo, Waverly Labs, Iflytek
SOCIETAL TRANSACTION SYSTEMS & FINTECHUBI, decentralized intelligence, Blockchain technologies, removal of transaction gatekeepersEverex, EmCash, YouTrip, Ripple, Ant Financial
ALTERNATIVE SYSTEMS AND COLLABONOMICSSmart cities, blue zones, alternative jurisdictions, digital nation states, AI-based legislation, Open Source (non-proprietary) legal formsNeom, The Seasteading Institute, MakeSense, EstonianeResidency, Planetarian.earth, Triamant, Didi Chuxing
Neom
Seasteading InstitutePage 26
A PLANETARIAN PERSPECTIVE
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY HUMANITY HAS EVERYTHING TO FEED, SUPPORT, AND EVOLVEEVERYONE ON THIS PLANET –WITHOUT DESTROYING THE PLANET.
ALL WE NEED TO DO, IS REORGANIZE THINGS.
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THERE IS STILL HOPE
Steve Jobs
"Those who are crazy enough to think they can change the world usually do."
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