““How to Solve Urban How to Solve Urban

Transportation Problems Through Transportation Problems Through

Innovation”Innovation”

J. Edward Anderson, Ph.D., P. E.J. Edward Anderson, Ph.D., P. E.Managing DirectorManaging Director

PRT International, LLCPRT International, LLCFormer Professor of Mechanical EngineeringFormer Professor of Mechanical EngineeringUniversity of Minnesota & Boston UniversityUniversity of Minnesota & Boston University

www.prtnz.com, advancedtransit.orgwww.prtnz.com, advancedtransit.org

We call our solution to

Urban Transportation Problems

“An Intelligent Transportation Network System”

“ITNS”generically it has been called Personal Rapid Transit

(PRT)

Here is what I will discuss:1. Urban Transportation problems

2. Approach to solution

3. The Design Process

4. Criteria for solution

5. How to meet the criteria

6. Some tradeoff issues and conclusions

7. Capacity and Control

8. Safety, Reliability, and Life-Cycle Cost

9. How the system is used

10.Significant activity around the world

11.Cost comparisons with conventional rail

12.Land savings

13.Energy savings

14.Benefits

15.Our next steps

16.Why is PRT being implemented first overseas?

Problems with Urban Transportation

The high and rising price of oil. 2006: 4.9 each hour killed, 294 each hour injured,

NHSB. People who cannot or should not drive – lack of equity. Excessive congestion. Local, regional, international air pollution.

Effects on the climate. Excessive sprawl. Road rage. Large subsidies for transit.

60% of transportation budget for 3% of trips

Approach to Solution:

Be aware of prior work on old and new systems.

Begin with no commitment to any existing transit system or to any particular

technology. Determine to design a system

that will address all of the problems listed.

Design Process Study urban transportation as an interdisciplinary issue. Identify the Problems. Understand all factors that influence ridership. Understand all factors that determine cost. Engage in detailed site-specific planning studies. Conduct courses in transport planning and technology. Clarify concepts, give presentations, and receive

feedback. Conduct conferences, visit work of others. Develop design criteria. Identify technical issues. Analyze and resolve technical issues. Only now engage in detailed design. Practice ”15 Rules of Engineering Design,” www.prtnz.com.

Criteria for Design

A better system must be

Time competitive with the auto Operational with renewable energy sources Low in energy use Low in air and noise pollution

Safe, secure, reliable, and comfortable

Easy to use Low in land and material use

Available at all times to everyone.

More Design Criteria

Adequate in capacity Visually acceptable

All weather

Compliant with Americans with Disabilities Act

Expandable in area coverage

Operable at competitive speeds

Designed for minimum cost & maximum ridership

An unattractive target for terrorists.

Key Transit Concept: Cost per

passenger-mile = Cost/year Passenger-miles/year

Problem: Develop system-significant

equation for cost per passenger-mile to clarify the system characteristics that

minimize it.

“Optimization of Transit System Characteristics,” www.prtnz.com.

Conclusion:

The characteristics of a system that minimize cost

also maximize ridership and define the systemwe now call

An Intelligent Transportation Network System (ITNS)

Guideway weight reduction 20:1

Small fully automated vehicles!

Large manually driven vehicles.

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220

Vehicle Design Capacity

Co

st p

er u

nit

Cap

acit

yCost per unit of Design Capacity of Various Transit Vehicles

Fleet Cost = Cost/Vehicle Capacity People-Carrying

Capacity

Suppose 15 vehicles each averaging 10 mph provide a given people-carrying capacity.

Then 6 vehicles averaging 25 mph provide same capacity.

The average speed is highest if there are no

intermediate stops, which are not necessary

if stops are off-line just like on a freeway.

Conclusions:

Guideway cost is minimized by using minimum weight

vehicles.

Vehicle fleet cost is minimized by using off-line stations.

This combination makes a major breakthrough!

Nonstop trips High average speed Minimum fleet size & cost High throughput Small vehicles Small, low-cost guideway

Now interesting things happen: Vehicles run only on demand, not on a schedule Service is always available, the wait is short to none Close station spacing does not decrease average

speed Stations can be sized to demand You ride with chosen companions or alone

All lead to high ridership and low cost.

Transit Systems Theory, www.advancedtransit.org

Off-Line Stations are The Key Breakthrough!

Off-Line Stations are The Key Breakthrough!

Consider 3 of 45 Tradeoff Issues

For the whole list see

http://faculty.washington.edu/jbs/itrans/

Issue: Suspension

• Air cushion• Magnetic (maglev)• Sled runners• Wheels

“Maglev vs. Wheeled PRT”, www.prtnz.com

Issue: Propulsion

• Rotary motors– internal combustion, electric, steam

• Air• Cables• Linear electric motors

– induction (LIM), synchronous (LSM)– Issues: Guideway size & cost, control

flexibility, maintenance.

“Safe Design of PRT,” www.prtnz.com

Issue: Supported vs. Hanging Vehicles

“Supported vs. Hanging Vehicles”, www.prtnz.com

• Visual Impact• Cost of posts & Foundations• Natural Frequency• Ease of Switching• Rider Security• All-Weather Operation• Torsion in Curves

• U-Frame• Vertical Chassis• Wheeled support

Covers shield from• Sun• EM Radiation• Winter night sky• Snow & iceCovers• Minimize Air Drag• Permit maintenance• Permit appearance totto be customized

“An Intelligent Transportation Network System,” www.prtnz.com

LIM

VFD

VFDBattery

Shear Plate

The Guideway is a covered steel truss structure

designed for 90-ft spans.

See “Structural Properties of a PRT Guideway,” for calculations of stress, deflection, critical speed, the 32 design criteria, and how they are met.

The foundations, posts, and guideway can be installed in front of a store in a

day or two.Businesses are not disrupted.

This system won

competitions in Chicago, SeaTac & Cincinnati

www.skyloop.org

• U-shaped door permits easy entry.•The vehicle interior is wide enough to permit wheelchair entry.• Back seat is therefore wide enough to accommodate three adults.• There is room for wheelchair + attendant, or bicycle,

or baby stroller, or luggage, and two fold-down seats in front.

Renewable Energy can be used!• Solar panels on the guideway covers can produce 400 kW per mile.

• During the peak period the system needs 200 kW per mile.

• Excess solar or wind energy can be stored in– Batteries– Compressed air– Flywheels– Hydrogen– Pump-storage

Conventional vs. ITNS

A settlement 20 km west of Stockholm, Sweden.

How do we keep vehicles from crashing?

”PRT Control,” “Longitudinal Control of a Vehicle,” “Failure Modes and Effects Analysis,” www.prtnz.com

Computers routinely land airplanes on aircraft-carrier decks.

Our computers respond to and correct speed and position two hundred times per second.

Instruments used today to measure position and speed are much more accurate than we need.

Wayside zone controllers monitor vehicle motion.

Code has been developed to control any number of vehicles in networks of any size or configuration.

“Some History of PRT Simulation Programs” www.prtnz.com

“Simulation of the Operation of PRT Systems,” www.prtnz.com

High Capacity with Small Vehicles?

Surface-level rail: 6 min between trains in rush period

At capacity: 400 people per train or 400×10 = 4000 people per hour

ITNS: 2 sec average between cars in rush period

At capacity: 3 people per car or 3×1800 = 5,400 people per hour

ITNS capacity/Rail capacity = 5,400/4000 = 1.35:1

The common belief that small vehicles mean small capacity is a myth!

“PRT: Matching Capacity to Demand,” www.prtnz.com

“The Capacity of High-Capacity PRT Systems”, www.prtnz.com.

In 1973 the UMTA (now FTA) Administrator

Frank Herringer told a Congressional Committee:

“High-Capacity PRT can carry as many people

as rapid rail for a quarter the cost.”

The page of the Congressional Record that contains this statement

is reproduced on page 11 of the paper “Intelligent Transportation Network System,”

which can be downloaded from www.prtnz.com.

Experimental Proof!

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Number of Station Berths

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Maxim

um

Th

rou

gh

pu

t, v

eh

icle

s p

er

ho

ur

0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0

THROUGHPUT of an OFF-LINE STATIONfor line headways from 0.5 to 5.0 sec

System Reliability & Safety ”Safe Design of PRT System,”

“Failure Modes & Effects Analysis,” www.prtnz.com

Vehicle has few moving parts. Switch has no moving track parts. Motors have no moving parts. Motors, sensors, and power supply are

redundant. The computers are Dual Redundant. Fault-tolerant hardware and software. We use an exclusive guideway.Result:

– Chance of injury is close to zero!

Measure and Calculate System Dependability

“Dependability as a Measure of On-Time Performance of PRT Systems,” www.prtnz.com

Dependability = (1 - Person-Hours of Delay due to Failures Person-Hours of Operation)×100

Calculations show > 99.97% independent of system size!

The method permits Dependability to be both calculated in advance and measured in real timeas a basis for contract specification.

Problem: Find MTBF of each Component that Minimizes System Life Cycle Cost subject to given Dependability.

Solution: Lagrangian constrained minimization problem solved in paper "Life-Cycle Costs and Reliability Allocation in Automated Transit,“ www.prtnz.com

Mean Time Between Failures

Co

st

Component Costs

Acquisition CostSupport CostLife-Cycle Cost

Using the New System

Buy a Prepaid Card.Find destination number from Information Kiosk.

Accessible to wheelchair

Ride nonstop to destination!

Personal Security is Excellent

The stations are well lit.

There is no waiting during off-peak hours.

The stations are monitored by closed-circuit video.

The stations & vehicles have two-way communications with central control.

The stations use motion sensors to detect loiterers.

The ride is private.

Significant Recent PRT Activity following Chicago

City of SeaTac, Washington – 1990’s

Series of studies in Sweden – 1990’s European Union: “PRT contributes significantly to transport

policy and all related policy objectives. “ 2006 Report.www.advancedtransit.org

BAA - Heathrow International Airport To be operating in spring 2009!

Posco Vectus test in Uppsala, Sweden

Santa Cruz, California

State of New Jersey PRT Study released in April

2007 www.advancedtransit.org, www.prtnz.com

MASDAR, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

ULTra

Bristol University, UK

www.atsltd.co.uk

Heathrow

Vectus PRT by Posco, South

Korea

VectusPosco Steel Co.

www.vectusprt.com Uppsala

Cost Comparisons

“Light” rail tranitA transit mode first introduced in 1888.

Minneapolis Rail Cost and Trip Data

Data source: www.metrotransit.org

Annualize capital cost:

7% of $715,300,000 = $50,070,000 Annual operating cost: $19,850,000 Total annual cost: $69,920,000 Annual number of trips: 7,267,000 Break-even fare =

$69,920,000/7,267,000 = $9.62 Average fare = $0.99 Subsidy per trip = $8.63 Fares cover 10.3% of the total costs.

See also www.archive.org

Cost per Daily Trip

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

Hiawatha Rail Mpls PRT

By using off-line stations and small vehicles many more riders can be

attracted! Available anytime of day or night. No need to understand the system. Short walk in a wider service area. Short or zero wait. A seat for everyone. Ride alone or with chosen companions. An enjoyable, nonstop ride. No transfers. Short, predictable trip time. Competitive fare. At 2003 MN State Fair thousands of people lined up to ride 40

ft.

Land Savings

Throughput per direction: 6000 cars/hr

Throughput per direction: 6000 cars/hr

Throughput per direction: 6000 cars/hr

300 ft

15 ft

Throughput per direction: 6000 cars/hr

300 ft

15 ft

Enormous Land Savings!

Land required only for posts and stations, only 1/5000th or 0.02% of city land.

Auto system requires

30% of land in residential areas

50% to 70% in downtown

Land savings + high ridership permits safe, zero-pollution, energy-efficient, environmentally friendly, high-density living to an extent not possible with conventional transportation.

A former parking lot!

Energy Savings

Minimum Energy Use Vehicles run only when needed

No in-route stopping

Lower maximum speeds

Each day, one PRT vehicle handles 6-10 auto trips

Minimizing material use minimizes energy use

Very light-weight vehicles

Smooth, stiff tires for low road resistance

Streamlining for low air drag

Efficient propulsion

Adequate insulation

“What determines transit energy use? “, www.prtnz.com

Benefits

for Riding Public Everyone can use it including

elderly, disabled, and children.

You need to know only your destination, not what line to take and when a vehicle will leave.

Vehicles wait for people, not people for vehicles.

The trips are short, predictable, and nonstop.

The trip cost is competitive.

There is minimum or no waiting.

Everyone has a seat.

The system is always available.

The vehicles are heated and air conditioned.

More benefits for Riding Public Safe

Quiet

No transfers

No crowding

Minimum anxiety

Private, pleasant ride

You can make good use of your time while riding

Comfortable, jerk-free motion

Space for luggage, wheelchair or bicycle

There is no need for a driver’s license.

Benefits for the Community Low energy use Can use renewable energy Less than one millionth accident rate in

autos“Failure Modes & Effects,” www.prtnz.com

Attractive to many auto users Reduced congestion No air pollution Noise barely audible Huge land saving: 0.02% vs. 30-70% Smaller transit subsidies Augments existing rail and bus systems.

More benefits for the Community

No reason for road rage No significant targets for terrorists More efficient use of land More livable high-density communities More people-attracting parks and gardens Safe, swift movement of mail, goods and waste Easier access to jobs, stores, schools, etc. Faster all-weather, inside-to-inside

transportation Less need for urban expansion

ITNS solves all the problems listed!

PRT International, LLC After 13 years of intensive activity in PRT, I developed a

new design that won competitions in Chicago, SeaTac, and Cincinnati.

I was a key participant in a $1,500,000

PRT Design Study. I designed and supervised construction and operation of

one automatically controlled, LIM propelled vehicle that ran flawlessly for thousands of rides – I designed a system that worked!

I have developed detailed Requests for Proposal for final design and construction.

I have attracted engineers and engineering companies needed for the next major step:

A FULL-SCALE TEST PROGRAM

690 ft x 470 ft covering 7.4 acres

Total guideway length 0.49 mi

One Station and 3 vehicles

Max speed: 35 mph

In operation in 15 months from notice to proceed.

The Engineering Program is ready to go!$20,000,000 for engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and planning for the first application. The pilot program will take about as much time as the planning, and will reduce time to

first commercial operation.

Here is why we need the Pilot Program:

To get the system running as quickly as possible

To verify capital and operating costs

To prove safety, reliability, and ride comfort

To determine the insurance rate

To correct errors before the first application

To develop proven plans and specifications

To train engineers and technicians.

Why is PRT starting first overseas?

“Devolution of the Federal Role in Urban Transportation” by Edward Weiner, DOT Office of Sec., Journal of Advanced Transportation, Vol. 18, No. 2, Summer 1984.

He said that Decisions will be guided by the Marketplace. User fees will cover more of the costs.

But Cities were told to consider only proven systems. No means was provided to prove new systems.

Result: Overpowering pressure to get available federal money now. New ideas crushed!

Local leaders need to insist that new systems are included in alternatives analyses.

Visitwww.prtinternational.com/cms/

www.prtnz.comwww.advancedtransit.orghttp://kinetic.seattle.wa.us

http://gettherefast.orghttp://faculty.washington.edu/jbs/itrans/

www.cprt.orgwww.acprt.org

jeanderson@prtinternational.com(763) 586-0877