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H O W T O M O R R O W M O V E S
Fall 2017
HOW TOMORROW MOVES
Michael Rutherford Vice President – Sales & Marketing Industrial Products
PRECISION SCHEDULED RAILROADING AT CSX
Unlocking Potential through Transformative Change
THIS INFORMATION AND OTHER STATEMENTS BY THE COMPANY MAY CONTAIN FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT WITH RESPECT TO, AMONG OTHER ITEMS: PROJECTIONS AND ESTIMATES OF EARNINGS, REVENUES, MARGINS, VOLUMES, RATES, COST-SAVINGS, EXPENSES, TAXES, LIQUIDITY, CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, DIVIDENDS, SHARE REPURCHASES OR OTHER FINANCIAL ITEMS, STATEMENTS OF MANAGEMENT’S PLANS, STRATEGIES AND OBJECTIVES FOR FUTURE OPERATIONS, AND MANAGEMENT’S EXPECTATIONS AS TO FUTURE PERFORMANCE AND OPERATIONS AND THE TIME BY WHICH OBJECTIVES WILL BE ACHIEVED, STATEMENTS CONCERNING PROPOSED NEW SERVICES, AND STATEMENTS REGARDING FUTURE ECONOMIC, INDUSTRY OR MARKET CONDITIONS OR PERFORMANCE. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE TYPICALLY IDENTIFIED BY WORDS OR PHRASES SUCH AS “WILL,” “SHOULD,” “BELIEVE,” “EXPECT,” “ANTICIPATE,” “PROJECT,” “ESTIMATE,” “PRELIMINARY” AND SIMILAR EXPRESSIONS. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS SPEAK ONLY AS OF THE DATE THEY ARE MADE, AND THE COMPANY UNDERTAKES NO OBLIGATION TO UPDATE OR REVISE ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT. IF THE COMPANY UPDATES ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT, NO INFERENCE SHOULD BE DRAWN THAT THE COMPANY WILL MAKE ADDITIONAL UPDATES WITH RESPECT TO THAT STATEMENT OR ANY OTHER FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO A NUMBER OF RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES, AND ACTUAL PERFORMANCE OR RESULTS COULD DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THAT ANTICIPATED BY ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. FACTORS THAT MAY CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE CONTEMPLATED BY ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE, AMONG OTHERS; (I) THE COMPANY’S SUCCESS IN IMPLEMENTING ITS FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL INITIATIVES; (II) CHANGES IN DOMESTIC OR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL OR BUSINESS CONDITIONS, INCLUDING THOSE AFFECTING THE TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY (SUCH AS THE IMPACT OF INDUSTRY COMPETITION, CONDITIONS, PERFORMANCE AND CONSOLIDATION); (III) LEGISLATIVE OR REGULATORY CHANGES; (IV) THE INHERENT BUSINESS RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SAFETY AND SECURITY; (V) THE OUTCOME OF CLAIMS AND LITIGATION INVOLVING OR AFFECTING THE COMPANY; (VI) NATURAL EVENTS SUCH AS SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS OR PANDEMIC HEALTH CRISES; AND (VII) THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH PROJECTING ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS CONDITIONS. OTHER IMPORTANT ASSUMPTIONS AND FACTORS THAT COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE IN THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE SPECIFIED IN THE COMPANY’S SEC REPORTS, ACCESSIBLE ON THE SEC’S WEBSITE AT WWW.SEC.GOV AND THE COMPANY’S WEBSITE AT WWW.CSX.COM.
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FORWARD LOOKING DISCLOSURE
HOW TOMORROW MOVES
EVEN IF YOU’RE ON THE RIGHT TRACK, YOU’LL GET RUN OVER IF YOU JUST SIT THERE. - WILL ROGERS
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50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
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02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
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14
20
15
20
16
Operating Ratio Trends Class I Railroads
CSX
THE CASE FOR TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE
5
Operating Ratio is the preferred measure to evaluate railroads
― Reflects high ongoing capital expenditures and exposure to inflationary pressures
― Measures overall efficiency of both operations and capital deployment
Recent CSX performance has been range bound
― Significant gains under the One Plan ― Despite continuous improvement with
focus on train productivity, OR moved sideways in more recent years
Source: Public Reportings for Class I Railroads.
TRAFFIC MIX HAS SHIFTED RADICALLY
6
8,806
10,701
5,571
2009 2016 H1 2017
CSX Revenue Dollars in Millions
Coal Merchandise Intermodal
17%
55%
14%
67%
31%
65%
15%
16%
19%
Coal expected to decline longer-term, despite recent gains
― Natural gas prices remain the key driver of domestic coal consumption
― Export coal volatility driven by supply and demand on global markets
― Industrial segment smaller but more stable
Network implications have been significant in recent years
― Rationalized some coal assets in the central portion of the network
― Growth shifting focus to assets supporting Merchandise and Intermodal on the triangle
Source: CSX Public Reportings.
FUTURE CHALLENGES REMAIN
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Near-term remains favorable for rail ― Positive macro-economic environment ― Maintains a strong value proposition with better
infrastructure than alternative modes ― ELD’s likely to hinder productivity and even
exacerbate the driver shortage
However uncertain, other initiatives will
likely promote trucking efficiencies ― Increased size and weight ― More stringent fuel consumption standards ― Platooning and autonomous vehicles
Railroads must focus on innovation ― Technological advances still important ― Must not neglect process innovation
to control asset and labor costs
Source: ASCE National Infrastructure Report Card 2017; WSJ “Truckers Are in No Hurry to Have Their Hours Tracked, 9/14/2017.
SUPERIOR SERVICE KEY TO SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
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ƒ (Productivity)
ƒ (Volume, Price)
Operating Expenses
Operating Revenue
HOW TOMORROW MOVES
IF I HAD ASKED PEOPLE WHAT THEY WANTED, THEY WOULD HAVE SAID FASTER HORSES. - HENRY FORD
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PSR: ‘RAILROADING IS JUST A BUNCH OF PROCESSES’
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Improve Service
Operate Safely
Control Costs
Drive Asset Utilization
Develop People
Operational Focus
Terminal Fluidity
Balanced Train Plan
Service Improvements
Rolling Stock Utilization
People Efficiency
Fuel Optimization
Train Density
Sustainable volume and revenue growth Improving operating ratio Strong free cash flow generation Superior shareholder distributions and returns
Financial Focus
Superior Financial Results
Improved Frequency
Better Reliability
Faster Transit
Quicker Turnaround
Productivity Improvements &
PSR STARTS WITH THE CUSTOMER
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‘Just run the plan’ and mean it ― Integrate MOW with the plan, versus running
a competing plan characterized by curfews ― All trains need to operate to a schedule
Unit trains are not always better ― Unit train transits compensated for issues with
the scheduled Merchandise network ― Excessive dwell to build and unload unit trains
elongates cycle times, requiring more assets
Focus on end-to-end transit times ― FMLM as part of overall service performance,
not as a separate goal unto itself ― There is no intrinsic value in hump yards
Do not confuse the ends with the means
‘DAISY CHAINS’ ARE FRAGILE BY DESIGN
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95%
95%
95%
95%
95%
Reliability degrades across handlings: 77%
OVER-RELIANCE ON HUMPS HINDERS PROGRESS
13
Transitioning hump yards ― Started with twelve; seven have been
converted to flat switching operations ― Two to four hump yards likely long term
Yard efficiency improving ― Nearly two-thirds of all yard activity is now
done through flat switching ― Eliminating a handling can accelerate
transit by at least a day
Current footprint supports radically different train plan
― Strategic blocking allows for farther, faster transit while reducing handlings
― Eliminates out-of-route miles associated with “boomerang” service routings
― Reduced operating units from 9 to 5
CSX Hump Terminals Transitioning operations to flat-switching
Selkirk, NY
Cumberland, MD
Hamlet, NC
Waycross, GA
Atlanta, GA Birmingham, AL
Nashville, TN
Louisville, KY
Avon, IN Cincinnati, OH
Willard, OH Toledo, OH
Transitioned to flat-switching operations
Hump Terminals
HOW CAN YOU PARTNER WITH CSX GOING FORWARD?
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Help cycle equipment quickly to avoid idle dwell
― Do not allow cars to sit in the serving yard ― Quickly load and unload to turn the cars ― Release cars promptly in usable condition
Reduce time at customer to make local service more predictable
― Drop and hook is the ideal set up ― Eliminate excessive switching or placement ― Do not require mainline time to switch
Plan with the end in mind ― Pre-block cars to facilitate switching in transit ― Update transit times to mange pipeline
Change is a Team effort – Customers included
HOW TOMORROW MOVES
THE WORLD HATES CHANGE, YET IT IS THE ONLY THING THAT HAS BROUGHT PROGRESS. - CHARLES KETTERING
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AFTER A GREAT START, TRANSITION ISSUES IN Q3
16 Source: Merchandise Loaded Transit, settled 9/18/17. Waybill Release Date
MANY CUSTOMERS SEE THE IMPROVEMENT
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Customer Inquiries Daily Average Log Volume
Delayed cars most frequent concern ― Trend in problem logs mirrors timeframe
of network challenges and recovery ― Enhanced focus on long-dwell cars ensures
all cars benefit from fluidity gains ― Hurricane Irma driving latest uptick
Customer service and commercial presence at key field locations aids communication and problem-solving
Nearly 90% of problem logs have been addressed and closed to-date
― Managing pipeline of customer concerns to full resolution with more logs open thru placement
354 368
286
374
458
570 563 537
567
499
374
281 330
25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37Weeks
Delayed Cars Bad Order Switching Issues
VELOCITY AGAIN CLIMBING AS SERVICE RECOVERS
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Velocity
Former Line of road miles per hour
Current Total miles traveled per hour, including intermediate dwell of the train
Change Reason
Includes full trip of a train and ability to diagnose overall speed profile (in support of improvement in asset cycle)
Effect on Metric Reported velocity will be lower
Restated historical data in new methodology available on csx.com/servicemetrics
DWELL IMPROVING FOR MANY WEEKS NOW
19
Dwell
Former Car time at terminal, excluding cars on the same train ID
Current All car time with a terminal work event, including through cars on same train ID (e.g. crew change)
Change Reason
Includes all dwell with ability to diagnose all events impacting car movement (in support of improvement in asset cycle)
Effect on Metric Reported dwell will be lower
Restated historical data in new methodology available on csx.com/servicemetrics
CARS ONLINE SHOWING SIMILAR IMPROVEMENT
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Cars Online
Former All cars on CSX, as determined by RailInc
Current
RailInc cars on CSX, excluding cars stored, under repair, sold, and private cars ex online inventory
Change Reason
More accurate measurement of active cars online, i.e. cars for which CSX is focused on real-time, efficient movement
Effect on Metric Reported cars online will be lower
Restated historical data in new methodology available on csx.com/servicemetrics
STILL ON TRACK FOR RECORD PRODUCTIVITY IN 2017
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93.5
103.8 100.9
Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17
Locomotive Efficiency GTM’s per Horsepower
6,560 6,430
6,855
Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17
Train Length Feet
Note: Third quarter 2017 efficiency measures are quarter-to-date through September 1st
8.8 8.1
7.6
Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17
Fuel Consumption Average Weekly Gallons
in Millions
3,763
3,139
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
4,000
Q1AVG
Q2AVG
25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37Weeks
BALANCED TRAIN PLAN MEANS FEWER LOCOMOTIVES
22
Q3 locomotive level stable; flex engines in response to incremental demand like coal
Active Locomotives
9,223
9,334
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
8,900
9,100
9,300
9,500
9,700
9,900
Q1AVG
Q2AVG
25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37Weeks
BETTER ASSET UTILIZATION MEANS FEWER CREWS
23
T&E trend tracking normal seasonality; re-crew rates remain at historic lows and stable
Train & Engine Headcount and Re-crew Rate1
1 Re-crew rate is re-crew people starts as a percent of total measured people starts, and it represents incidences of replacing a crew on the same train ID (generally due to hours of service)
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CSX IS UNDERGOING TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGE
Precision Scheduled Railroading rollout has been rapid ― Implementing core tenets on an accelerated basis
Now focused on executing and refining operating plan
― Aligning field leaders with Precision Railroading and new regional structure
Resources support current train plan
― As execution improves, service, volume and utilization are expected to improve
Long-term vision intact despite recent transition issues
― Transition issues in Q3 temporarily slowed progress for this year
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HOW TOMORROW MOVES
WHEN YOU ARE FINISHED CHANGING, YOU’RE FINISHED. - BENJAMIN FRANKLIN
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