how it has planned and prepared for sucha pandemic. The paper reports the researchmethods used by the authors in this planningprocess, including scenario planning, economicforecasting and in-house workshops to scope therange of issues to address in preparing acontingency plan for a flu pandemic.

Keywords: avian flu, flu pandemic,VisitScotland, emergency planning,scenario planning

INTRODUCTIONThere is a widely accepted view amonggovernments and health sector agenciesthat it is now only a matter of timebefore the world faces a flu pandemic.The last year has seen a massive flurryof government planning for this poten-tially devastating economic event, as theWorld Health Organization (WHO) hasencouraged governments to prepare con-tingency plans for the health effects andimpact upon their healthcare systems. Atthe same time, governments have begunto take note of the World Bank’s warningthat the global economic impact of aflu pandemic is likely to reach someUS$800bn in worldwide economic losses.Some WHO estimates have also suggestedthat there could be in the region of7–350 million deaths from flu worldwide.Businesses and public sector organisationshave begun to try to understand what this

Stephen Page is currently working withVisitScotland and the Scottish Executive onemergency planning related to avian flu and theeffect of a flu pandemic on tourism in Scotland.His research expertise covers tourist health andsafety, and he has written extensively in the areaof tourism. He is the Scottish EnterpriseProfessor of Tourism Management in theDepartment of Marketing, University of Stirling.He is also co-editor of the leading tourismjournal, Tourism Management, and the editor ofthe Advances in Tourism Research seriespublished by Elsevier.

Ian Yeoman is the Scenario Planner forVisitScotland, the national tourism organisationfor Scotland. He has a PhD in ManagementScience from Napier University, Edinburgh andis the author/editor of six tourism books. Ian isEditor of the Journal of Revenue & PricingManagement and has taught revenue manage-ment on a number of university courses. Hisspecial interests include the use of modellingtechniques to interpret and analyse tourismscenarios and policy.

ABSTRACT

This paper examines one of the key risks facingbusinesses and emergency planners today: thelikely impact of a flu pandemic on businessactivities. The paper uses the example of alarge tourism organisation — VisitScotland,the national tourism organisation for Scotland,with over 1,000 employees — and explains

How VisitScotland prepared for aflu pandemic

Stephen Page* and Ian YeomanReceived (in revised form): 2nd October, 2006*Department of Marketing, University of Stirling, Stirling, FK9 4LA, UK;Tel: �44 (0)1786 466451; Fax: �44 (0)1786 464745; e-mail: s.j.page@stir.ac.uk

Journal of Business Continuity & Emergency Planning Volume 1 Number 2

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Journal of Business Continuity &Emergency PlanningVol. 1 No. 2, pp. 167–182Henry Stewart Publications,1749-9224

may mean for them: major disruptions tobusiness, especially to the retail sector,food, consumer goods, healthcare deliveryand a potential curtailing of travel andtourism as major drivers of the economiesof many countries. This has major conse-quences for individual businesses, not justin terms of business continuity for theiractivities and cash flow, but also in termsof access to human resources to staffthe organisation, with high levels of ab-senteeism forecast (from 25 to 100 percent of staff, according to some extremeforecasts) for between 5–20 days. Againstthis background, this paper seeks to definea flu pandemic, and explain its dimensionsand expected effects by way of context forbusinesses and key decision makers. Thisis followed with a case study of how thenational tourism organisation for Scotlandhas set about planning for and making itsorganisation and the Scottish tourism in-dustry ready for a flu pandemic, em-phasising the role of business continuityplanning and crisis management plans tocope with major interruptions to normalbusiness.1

So, what is a flu pandemic and what isthe link to avian flu given the press andpublic’s tendency to merge the two issues?For clarity, the paper will first define avianflu, and then examine the links withinfluenza and pandemics.

WHAT IS AVIAN FLU?Avian flu is a highly pathogenic disease alsoknown as the fowl plague, which firstappeared in Italy around 1878. Pathogenicavian influenza was first recognised in theUSA around 1924–25. It occurred again in1929 and was eradicated both times.Pathogenic and mildly pathogenic in-fluenza A viruses occur worldwide. Highlypathogenic avian influenza A (HPAI)viruses of the H5 and H7 HA subtypes havebeen isolated occasionally from free-living

birds in Europe and elsewhere. Outbreaksdue to HPAI were recorded in thePennsylvania area, USA, in the years1983–84. More recently, outbreaks haveoccurred in Australia, Pakistan, HongKong, Italy, Chile and Mexico. A seriousoutbreak of avian influenza in the Nether-lands in 2003, spreading to Belgium andGermany, affected some 250 farms andnecessitated the slaughter of more than 28million birds.

Another serious outbreak of this diseaseaffected Japan, South Korea and south-east Asia early in 2004, reflecting what theWHO claims is a problem area for newemerging diseases in the western Pacific.This outbreak is still ongoing in Chinaand parts of south-east Asia. There isalso evidence that H5 viruses of lowpathogenicity may mutate and becomehighly pathogenic.

There were also a small number of casesof avian influenza in the USA and Canadaearly in 2004. The US strain in Texas,however, was typed as H5N2, not thesame as the strain in south-east Asia. Morerecently, there have been reports of infec-tion of birds across Europe, with onecase reported in the east of Scotlandin April 2006 (see Figure 1), with thespread largely mirroring the flight pathsof migrating birds (eg swans, ducks andother hosts).

The avian form of influenza may causehuman deaths where there is close contactwith the birds and contamination fromfaeces and blood, but this in itself does notconstitute a pandemic. A pandemic willonly occur if the H5N1 virus mixes withanother species, such as pigs, and thenmutates to create a human strain. As yet,this stage has not been reached.

WHAT IS A PANDEMIC?Influenza is not a new problem. Manyoutbreaks have been tracked through time

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Figure 1Geographicaldistribution of avianflu, March 2006

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� S. J. Page

by medical historians, with cases recordedfrom the 15th century onwards. Therehave been four major influenza pandemicsin the 20th century in 1918, 1957, 1968and 1977, the first being the mostvirulent, killing an estimated 50 millionpeople worldwide and 200,000 in theUK. Influenza often reaches epidemiclevels, which is a widespread occurrenceof the virus in a particular community ina specific time. The fear in this instance,however, is that avian flu will mutate intoa global rather than local problem — aninfluenza pandemic.

WHY IS IT CONSIDERED AN ISSUE?

• The mortality rate: In May 2005, WHOstatistics indicated a 67 per cent mor-tality rate among those infected andseeking treatment. When avian flu suc-cessfully mutates into human influenza,the mortality rate, according to NHSScotland, is envisaged to be around0.5–5 per cent, which could be well inexcess of the normal 1 per cent mor-tality rate experienced in winter fluepisodes.

• The impact on the economy: The USCentres for Disease and ControlPrevention have suggested that between89,000 to 207,000 people could die inthe USA, with around 314,000hospitalisations and 18 million out-patient visits. This would generate animpact on the US economy of betweenUS$71–165bn, which is still a conserva-tive estimate. The UK Government hasnot yet released data with respect to theUK economy, but the impact isexpected to be of the same order ofmagnitude in relation to the effect onGDP and productivity.

• Social distancing measures: One of fewtools available to political leaders aresocial distancing measures, ie the ability

to temporarily ban public gatherings.This can mean closing football matches,weddings, schools or visitor attractionsunder government direction. Such ameasure will have a huge impact ontourism, particularly for events that at-tract large gatherings of people. It isalso likely to cause community andindividual isolation.

• First impact: By the very nature ofa pandemic, international travel andtourism will be the first industries to behit. Countries will issue travel advisories,recommending tourists avoid infectedcountries, which will evidently have adevastating impact on the world tourismindustry. Further, some scientists believethat to quarantine a country and seek toreduce the number of introduced cases ofinfection, it would be necessary toprevent around 95 per cent of all travel toand from that country. In a globalisedsociety, this seems impossible. Indeed, ina world with borders that were not soporous, only a small number of countriesevaded the 1918 pandemic by adoptingthese measures. However, a number ofcountries, including the USA, are nowlooking into contingency plans to limitand quarantine visitors.

• Globalisation: From a tourism perspec-tive, one point of concern is the natureof a globalised world, where borders areporous, commerce is global and world-wide travel the norm. This is alsoaccounted for by cross-border transmis-sion, which gives rise to opportunitiesfor any new pathogen to spread quicklyand without restraint. In 1918, theinfluenza pandemic killed 50 millionworldwide, including 200,000 in theUK; WHO forecasts that 100 millionpeople could be killed by a new out-break. In 1918, it took 12 months forthe disease to spread across the world —but global air travel did not exist then.With air travel now enabling people to

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spreads, meaning that a vaccine may notbe effective for long.

• The lessons of SARS: In China, SARSaccounted for a 5.3 per cent decrease intourism for the first five months of2003. A pandemic is likely to have amore profound effect due to its all-embracing effects on the host popula-tion. With its subsequent impact onCanadian tourism, in a region distantfrom the original outbreak in China,SARS illustrates the global nature ofviruses, showing how carriers can trans-mit the disease rapidly from a sourcearea (ie Asia) to other tourist destina-tions.

A country or organisation needs to beaware of the changing nature of avianflu and its potential to evolve into a flupandemic; these stages are presented inthe WHO alert system shown in Figure2. While this is not designed to beprescriptive over the way a pandemicwill unfold in a logical and phasedmanner, it is useful for planners andmanagers to understand the anatomy ofa pandemic and the different trigger

travel across the globe in less than24 hours, the time period would bemuch shorter. Indeed, a recent study byBrownstein et al.2 provides US-basedevidence on the effect of air travel oninter-regional influenza spread.

• It is overdue: There is an argumentamong epidemiologists that a pandemicis overdue. Global contagions tend tooccur every 25 years, with somescientists predicting that this will occursooner rather than later.

• No one will escape: The NHS Scotlandscenarios demonstrate that 25 per centof the population will be affected byinfluenza over an eight-week period,killing 0.5–5 per cent of the population.There may also be multiple waves ofinfluenza, meaning that the pandemiccould last several years as the virusmutates.

• Immunisation: Currently, influenza im-munisation has to change and adapt toeach new strain as it emerges. Not onlydoes it take time to produce such avaccine (at least eight weeks with re-search and development), but avian fluis likely to mutate and adapt as it

Figure 2 Overviewof internationalphases

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Source: WHO

Time

Escalation

Inter-pandemic

period

Pandemic alert

period

Pandemic period

Phase 1 �

No new human

subtypes

Phase 2 �

Animal subtype poses

risk

Phase 3 �

Human infections with a new subtype � no or rare

human-to-human transmission

Phase 4 �

Small clusters with limited, localised human-to-human spread

Phase 5 �

Large clusters with localised human-to-human

spread

Phase 6 �

Increased & sustainedspread in general population

UK Alert1.Outside UK2.Virus isolated in UK3.Outbreak(s) in UK4.Widespread activity UK

points where the issue increases in scale,significance and impact from a businessperspective. From a scenario planningperspective when trying to anticipate alikely event, Figure 2 helps managers tofollow many of the well-known steps inscenario planning as shown in Table 1.

With these issues in mind, attentionnow turns to how one public sectororganisation, VisitScotland, approachedthe issue, planned for a pandemic, andwhat actions and strategies it devised. Ina paper such as this, it is clearly notpossible to go into the minutiae of whatthe organisation has done, so the emphasiswill be on the scenario planning processesit has followed, and the resulting out-comes and preparedness. This has greatvalue for other public and private sectororganisations for illustrating the use of theleadership role to ensure internal pre-paredness and how wider tourism sectorpreparedness is being promoted in aproactive manner.

By way of context, it is useful to firstoutline what VisitScotland is as an or-ganisation, its role in Scotland and its

interconnections with the wider Scottishtourism industry. This underscores thesignificance of its role in ensuring thefinancial and economic wellbeing of thetourism industry as one of the mainstaysof the Scottish economy and a key con-tributor to the social, economic and en-vironmental fabric of Scotland.

VISITSCOTLAND AND ITS ROLE INSCOTTISH TOURISMVisitScotland is the national tourismorganisation (NTO) of Scotland whoselegislative basis is incorporated under theDevelopment of Tourism Acts of 1969and 1984. VisitScotland is the leadorganisation for tourism in Scotland,responsible to the Minister for Tourism inthe Scottish Executive (Government) fordestination marketing, tourism policyissues and economic advice. Tourism inScotland is a £4.2bn (US$7.0bn) in-dustry, representing 3 per cent of grossvalue added and 9 per cent of allemployment.3 Tourism is the fourthlargest industry in Scotland, greater than

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Table 1: Steps involved in scenario planning

1. Frame the issues — the scenarios need to have a clear focus, purpose and scope.2. Identify participants and solicit input — from within the organisation and externally from public

and private sector stakeholders.3. Draw a picture of what is known — outline the trends, key themes and relationships evident in

the issue(s) being addressed.4. Add uncertainties to the picture — including unknown environmental factors, such as the impact

of events and tipping points.5. Sketch out possible paths — with reference to the uncertainties and trends, a number of possible

and plausible future paths can be highlighted.6. Test for plausibility — the multiple scenarios developed need to be tested for internal consistency,

logic and causal relationships.7. Anticipate interactive dynamics — how different actors and competitors may react during the

scenarios.8. Formulate strategies — how the organisation(s) will cope with potential changes and what actions

they need to take.

Source: Developed from Miller, K. D. and Waller, H. G. (2003) ‘Scenarios, real options and integratedrisk management’, Long Range Planning, Vol. 36, No. 1, pp. 93–107.

but interconnected issues which mightpose a risk to Scottish tourism, andcommenced a scenario planning processin 2005.

HOW VISITSCOTLAND PLANNEDFOR A FLU PANDEMICScenario planning will be a recognisedarea for many readers, but it is usefulto illustrate some of the reasons whyVisitScotland adopted this approach to aflu pandemic, and why it emerged asissues in the assessment of the global risksfacing tourism. In 2005, VisitScotlandidentified avian flu and a flu pandemic asissues of concern to Scottish tourism, andindirectly undertook to share this as a caseof good practice with other NTOsworldwide via the World Tourism Or-ganisation. The importance of this issuewas reaffirmed in 2006 when the GlobalRisks 2006 report4 indicated that aninfluenza pandemic was one of theheadline risks for global business in 2005and 2006, posing acute concern. Thereport noted that ‘short-term economicimpacts would include severe impairmentof travel, tourism and other serviceindustries, as well as manufacturing andretail supply chains. Global trade, in-vestor risk appetites and consumptiondemand could suffer for more extendedperiods’.5 It is against this background thatVisitScotland embarked on a researchprogramme to engage in a scenarioplanning exercise to qualitatively modelthe complex issues associated with a flupandemic.

This research was undertaken in tan-dem with the Scottish Executive’s Depart-ment of Health (SEDH), which waspursuing a similar in-house programme toprepare the public sector for the conse-quences of a pandemic. In view of theongoing government contingency plan-ning, and given the importance of

whisky, oil and agriculture combined.VisitScotland’s main domestic markets areScotland, the North of England and theSouth of England. In 2005, UK touristsspent £3.0bn and made 14.5 milliontrips to Scotland. Overseas tourists spent£1.2bn (US$1.5bn) and took 2.39 milliontrips, with the main overseas marketsbeing North America, Germany, Franceand the Benelux countries. Scotland ispredominantly a UK weekend leisuredestination, with UK tourism representing86 per cent of all trips and 71 per cent ofrevenue. VisitScotland’s vision is to be themost respected national tourism agency inthe world, and with the support of theScottish Executive, wants to increase thevalue of Scottish tourism by 50 per cent,by 2015. VisitScotland is widely recog-nised as the lead body responsible forleading Scottish tourism in terms ofcoordinating and directing the diversepublic and private sector interests as-sociated with the sector. Previous crisessuch as foot and mouth disease high-lighted the pivotal role the organisa-tion plays in terms of communicatingwith stakeholder groups (eg businesses,the public, visitors and other organisa-tions) which is embodied in its crisiscommunications strategies for unforeseenevents. Such a reactive role has to bebalanced with forward-looking strategicfunctions. This is highlighted by the factthat the only NTO globally that employsa scenario planner and systematicallyevaluates and reviews the state of tourism,future forecasts, changing risks (eg whatwould a future Scottish tourism industryand product look like in a world withoutoil?) and threats, as well as moredetailed modelling and scenario planningof changing factors that affect tourism (egconsumer behaviour and attitudes towardstourism as an activity). It is against thisbackground that VisitScotland identifiedavian flu and a flu pandemic as separate

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understanding how a crisis might unfoldand its intended and unintended impacton Scottish tourism, scenario planningwas deemed a relevant tool to explorethese issues. In the case of VisitScotland,this was formulated into a researchproblem, namely, how would a flupandemic develop and impact uponScottish tourism and what responseswould be required? The research methodused was similar to that used by Yeomanet al.,6 and it replicated a scenario planningmethod as a tool by which a range ofscenarios can be constructed using driversand trends likely to shape the future.Yeoman et al.7 used this technique tounderstand how the war in Iraq mightaffect Scottish tourism, focusing on theimportance of VisitScotland’s need toprepare contingency and crisis plans.

Scenario planning, as Yeoman et al.8

argued, provided a holistic and sys-tematic technique to approach this re-search problem, underpinned by the useof the technique in the wider businessand management literature (eg Van derHeijden9). As with the case of the war inIraq, this research also sought to quantifythe expected disruption and changes toconsumer behaviour that might occur ina pandemic. What is important to stress,in methodological terms, is the value ofscenario planning as a research tool (seeTable 2) and the challenges it poses interms of operationalising it.

The scenario planner has to mix andmatch a range of research methods toachieve the research goal, using a trian-gulation of methods, which may involvea blend of qualitative methods (ie writing

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Table 2: Strengths and weaknesses of scenario planning as a research tool

Strengths Weaknesses

Participative — insights are drawn from manysources, thereby adding rich details to envisionedfutures and enhancing learning

Potentially unwieldy — without logicalconsistency and rigorous examination, scenarioscan be nothing more than imaginativespeculationsDetail rich — reaches beyond the constraints of

mechanistic models and incorporates contingenciesthat are difficult to quantify

Non-quantifiable — as many of the inputs to ascenario planning process are not quantifiable, theoutput is likewise not quantifiableNarrative — produces a series of stories about

plausible future states that take into account thedynamic interactions of key stakeholders and theorganisation’s role in creating the future

Biases — envisioned scenarios may reflect currentcircumstances rather than future possibilities;dominant personalities or groupthink can limitthe possibilities consideredBroad scope — considers multiple plausible

scenarios, covering a range of possiblecontingencies and outcomes; it facilitates diverseperspectives and helps uncover blind spots

Systems thinking — encourages learning aboutthe interrelations (including feedback effects)among key environmental variables

Externally-focused — provides a framework toenvision long-range opportunities anduncertainties in the organisation’s environment

Lack of consensus — because scenario planningallows for divergent perspectives, participants maynot converge on shared understandings or acommon strategy

Source: Miller, K. D. and Waller, H. G. (2003) ‘Scenarios, real options and integrated riskmanagement’, Long Range Planning, Vol. 36, No. 1, p. 96.

tourism and 82 economic sectors affect-ing tourism.11 Two specific scenarioswere produced as shown in summaryform in Tables 3–6 to depict the onsetof avian flu as a risk for Scottish tourismand the potential economic impact ofthis event as well as a more profoundseries of impacts aligned to a flupandemic developing in Scotland.

The outcome of this process was a seriesof scenarios that were used to guide thescenario planning process; the resultsof this exercise have been reportedelsewhere in detail together with thelikely impacts upon the Scottish tourismeconomy.12 It is important to stress fromthis exercise that the scenarios were testedwith industry practitioners and thenformed the basis for creating an agenda fororganisational planning and managementof a pandemic. In other words, thescenario planning tool was the start of the

a range of potential scenarios) andquantitative methods to add precisionto expected change to the tourismeconomy, using forecasting techniquesand econometric models. There are anumber of distinct steps involved in theprocess of scenario planning, each ofwhich was used to guide this study ashighlighted in Table 1.

Consequently, this research involved anumber of research stages:

• The writing of a number of scenarios toqualitatively map out the unfolding of aflu pandemic and its impact on Scot-tish tourism, in association with theSEDH;

• The use of the Moffat model,10 ascenario model that combines a qualita-tive approach and a conventional com-puter general equilibrium model of theScottish tourism economy. It is able totake account of events that may affect

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Table 3: VisitScotland scenario planning for avian flu: Scenario 1 — It’sout there

In this scenario, tourists are aware that avian flu is out there, but life in Scotland goes on as normal.The impact on Scotland’s GDP is very small. Unemployment has risen a little as a result and tourismhas seen some disruption. In 2006, international tourism revenues dropped £208m based upon the fearof flying, especially from the US market. The American State Department takes the unprecedented stepof warning American citizens to avoid travel to mainland Europe after media reports in USA Today andadvice from the Center for Disease Control in Atlanta on the lack of knowledge about avian flu andrisk assessment required by US travel insurers. Poor geographical knowledge among US travellerscompounds the problem as they see the spread via the Channel Tunnel. Interestingly, one consequenceis a rise in domestic tourism as some people decide to take their holiday in Scotland rather thanabroad. Scotland’s domestic tourism market rises by £248m in 2006, so the tourism sector actually seesa net benefit. The crisis has led many national tourism organisations to updating their crisismanagement procedures, re-examining their public relations strategies and developing contingency plansin case there is an outbreak of influenza.

In this scenario, the following presumptions have been made about demand:

• 5% increase in day trips• 5% domestic markets• 5% UK markets• –10% short haul• –20% USA.

The economic impact of this scenario is described in Table 4.

planning process, which facilitated or-ganisational awareness and VisitScotlandBoard endorsement of the need to planand prepare for this potential threat totourism in September 2005. This isfundamental in any form of crisis manage-ment if it is to be a robust process, whichneeds to be supported by the ChiefExecutive and Board.

Part of this planning process was toalso communicate the planning processto the wider Scottish tourism sector viavarious dissemination conduits such asthe world wide web using a summaryand full version of the scenario planningresults, as well as the major Scottishtourism industry conference in December2005. At each stage of the planningprocess, communication was deemed themain issue for the organisation, not justfor internal staff, but also the diverseother stakeholders (eg government andthe public sector, the tourism industry, theScottish population and visitors).

VISITSCOTLAND’S PREPARATIONSFOR A FLU PANDEMICAfter the initial creation and testing ofscenarios, and modelling the potential

economic effects of a flu pandemic onScottish tourism, the scenario planningframework was used to begin a process oforganisational development for the pan-demic in 2006. This commenced inJanuary 2006 with two workshops to takethe scenario planning exercise into apractically focused forum where keyinternal stakeholders within VisitScotlandconsulted and brainstormed the issues thata flu pandemic posed for their business.This was followed by a similar exer-cise for representatives of the Scottishtourism industry represented in the Scot-tish Tourism Emergency Response Group(STERG). At each of these sessions, themajor challenges for Scottish tourismwere reviewed and used to create aframework in which a series of crisismanagement plans could be developed forVisitScotland and STERG group. As anorganisation, VisitScotland is part of awider UK network of tourism agencies(VisitBritain, VisitWales, VisitEngland andthe Northern Ireland Tourist Board) anda web of other public sector bodies inScotland (eg the Scottish Executive, localauthorities, industry bodies and businessesrepresented in STERG). VisitScotlandworked in close consultation with both

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Table 4: Scenario 1: It’s out there — Macroeconomic impact

Scenario 1:It’s out there (£m) Change (%)

GDPWelfareEmployment (FTE jobs)Government revenueDay trips expenditureDomestic tourism expenditureRest of UK tourism expenditureInternational tourism expenditureDomestic plus rest of UK tourism expenditureOvernight tourism expenditureTourism plus day trips expenditure

–362–306

–3,180–8211278

170–20824840

153

–0.5–0.5–0.2–0.44.94.95.3

–15.25.20.71.8

sion of the intimate detail of these plans,it is possible to outline the followingguiding principles that applied to both theVisitScotland and STERG plans.

Guiding principlesThe plans needed to be simple, clear andunambiguous and no longer than tenpages in length, setting out the rationalefor the plan (Table 7), lines of authorityand Chief Executive support and delega-tion of the plan to a crisis managementteam. Clear guidelines for the activationof the plan were identified at VisitScot-land together with the wider importanceof safeguarding the wellbeing of staff,visitors and other stakeholders in theScottish tourism industry as the leadagency for tourism in Scotland. The planidentified that in the pre-crisis stage,much of the preparations for the pan-demic had to be made for effective plansto be put into action. For this reason, the

the Scottish Executive and VisitBritain tocreate its responses to a flu pandemic withtwo key guiding principles:

• Collaboration, joint working and thecreation of ‘knowledge economies’were deemed vital, to avoid reinventingthe wheel, to avoid claiming soleownership of the response and todevelop practical outcomes that thewider business community couldunderstand and use;

• Developing networks and webs ofcommunication13 with all the stakeholdersto disseminate the knowledgeeconomies and to establish the key areasfor integrated action.

In January 2006, two crisis managementplans on a flu pandemic were developedfor both VisitScotland and STERG.While issues of commercial sensitivity andorganisational operations prevent discus-

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Table 5: VisitScotland scenario planning for avian flu: Scenario 2 — It’s here

In this scenario, avian flu has mutated into influenza and, consequently, an outbreak has had adevastating effect on the Scottish economy and tourism. The UK Pandemic Influenza Committee doesnot declare an end to the pandemic until June 2008, when epidemiological indices return to normallevels. The impact on the Scottish economy is a 10 per cent fall in productivity, a 40 per centreduction in GDP and the loss of over 272,000 FTE jobs over two years. Scotland’s tourism, leisureand transport industry have suffered more than others. The Fraser of Allander Institute’s economicassessment of the impact of the pandemic on Scottish tourism quantifies the impact at £4.9bn perannum. Scotland’s international tourism markets are virtually wiped out. The equivalent of nearly98,000 FTE jobs are lost in the tourism industry.

In this scenario, the following presumptions are made about demand:

• Long and deep disruption to tourism• Recovery takes five years• 30% decline in day trips• 50% decline in domestic Scottish tourism• 60% decline in rest of UK tourism• 70% decline in short haul tourism• 90% decline in long haul tourism• 10% drop in productivity in tourism sectors• 10% drop in productivity in Scottish economy.

The economic impact of this scenario is described in Table 6.

following generic actions were iden-tified:

• Monitoring the spread of avian flu andthe likely trigger points where it mightmutate into a human pandemic.

• What actions were needed to marketScotland prior to a pandemic and

how communications were the majordriver of many of the VisitScotlandresponses either to reassure the public orbusinesses and their staff.

• The impact of a flu pandemic on traveland transport to/from Scotland andhow this might be affected by externalfactors, such as possible travel advisories

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Table 6: Scenario 2: It’s here — Macroeconomic impact

Scenario 2:It’s there (£m) Change (%)

GDPWelfareEmployment (FTE jobs)Government revenueDay trips expenditureDomestic tourism expenditureRest of UK tourism expenditureInternational tourism expenditureDomestic plus rest of UK tourism expenditureOvernight tourism expenditureTourism plus day trips expenditure

–26,841–27,727

–272,340–4,251

–910–763

–2,042–1,191–2,805–3,995–4,906

–38.6–43.8–14.8–18.5–40.0–47.5–59.5–78.6–55.7–61.0–55.6

Table 7: Objectives of the VisitScotland flu pandemic crisis plan

• To enable VisitScotland to respond as an organisation to the threat and problems which will resultfrom a flu pandemic in Scotland, so it can redefine and redirect its resources towards crisismanagement tasks internally and externally.

• To inform its staff, clients (businesses and visitors) and the public on the current state of tourism inScotland in relation to a flu pandemic.

• To seize the initiative as the single authoritative source of information rather than the media leadingthe crisis and information dissemination.

• To identify the core responsibilities and tasks with which the organisation will be charged during thecrisis, such as leadership of the tourism sector.

• To demonstrate human concern for what is happening and to offer advice on appropriate actions foraffected businesses.

• To enable tourism in Scotland to function as normal as is possible, without complete suspension of allbusiness activities unless it is deemed necessary.

• To ensure the safety and wellbeing of VisitScotland staff and to advise visitors on the relative safety(within the confines of existing scientific knowledge) of visiting different areas in Scotland.

• To fulfil the needs of the emergency corporate communications plan for a flu pandemic, to remainconsistent with the messages from VisitBritain and, where possible, seizing opportunities with themedia to contain negative reporting and effects.

was integrated with other agenciesinvolved in the tourism sector toachieve the goals of collaboration andnetworks of communication wasdeemed a high priority, hence thecreation of a response framework(Figure 3).

• In the crisis, a number of keymanagerial decisions by VisitScotland’sChief Executive and Board wererequired to establish a number ofpotential operating environments de-pendent upon the nature and likelyimpact of a pandemic, which mightcomprise:

— Attempting to maintain normal businessoperations up until a ‘tipping point’ orexternal factors lead to reorganisationof the business.

— Limiting the operation of Head Officefunctions to core staff to allow businesscontinuity with a limited staff thatremains communications-focused.

prior to a pandemic and the effect onthe image of Scotland as a visitordestination (positive and negative), astourist behaviour is significantly affectedby media reporting, imagery and massmedia sensationalism. This was apparentin the isolated case of avian flu found ina dead swan in April 2006 in EastScotland, which tested the organisation’scrisis management plans and widerpreparation for transforming normalbusiness activities to those that arecommunications-oriented.

• The preparations for human resourceplanning, including staff requirements,staff awareness and buy-in to the pan-demic planning process, and creation ofa clear command structure in the eventof a pandemic so that staff could workremotely and respond to carer and or-ganisational needs.

• Above all, the ability to create acommunications focused organisationalstructure and response network which

Figure 3VisitScotlandorganisation in flupandemic

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Communication and

emergency management

Visitor serviceshub�

Geographic delivery

Marketing and

recovery

Internal

processes

HR, IT Finance

Public Visitors Media Industry Government

Stakeholders

Senior management

team

(CEO, directors or nominees)

Emergency Team

VisitScotland.com

Hotline

webcommunications

STERG

— Maintaining the VisitScotland net-work as a remote series of hubsthat could have some core func-tions transferred to maintain businessoperations temporarily (eg call centrefunctions).

Having established these possible opera-tional scenarios, a range of similar issuesarose in relation to human resourcemanagement and filling absent staff posts:the importance of continuous com-munication with stakeholders and staff,and forward thinking in relation to therecovery stage. At each stage of thepotential crisis, communications weredeemed vital to keep a consistent message.The core communication tasks in thecrisis for VisitScotland therefore include:

• The formation of an emergency hotlineto handle all calls to area offices on flurelated issues (eg ‘is it safe to visitScotland?’) and to act as a clearinghouse for further advice/actions thatmay be referred on to STERG or theemergency team.

• The creation of the Flu and Tourism inScotland website, with links to robustsources and briefings for VisitScotlandstaff and other bodies.

• The timely response by authorised staff(which may need to be seconded orco-opted during the crisis to managethe demand for information/services) toinformation requests, the media andindustry/visitor requests. To aid thetraining and development of secondedstaff, a set storyline and simple messageneeds to be generated by the emer-gency team that will evolve as the crisisdevelops for consistency and clarity.This will need to be developed fromexperiences from other countries thathave dealt with a flu pandemic.

• The creation of question and answerinformation for the public and the

media along with rapid response tostories in the media that are factuallyincorrect or which seek to sensationaliseissues (eg during the avian flu case inScotland, words such as ‘plague’ and‘quarantine’ were used by the media tocreate a degree of frenzy and interest).

FUTURE ACTIONSVisitScotland is currently reviewing itspandemic preparedness14 and looking atthe legal issues arising from many of theactions needed to prepare for a crisis,including human resource policies relatingto staff absence and illness; the wayin which it communicates with itsstakeholders; the ability of the organisa-tion to cope in a crisis; the challenge forIT systems; and the ongoing dialoguewith other tourism organisations globally,nationally and locally to provide aseamless response from a UK tourismperspective in the event of a flu pan-demic. Much of this preparatory work isnot specific to a flu pandemic as it is partof the best practice guidelines now beingrecognised as essential to ensure bothbusiness continuity and the organisation’srobustness in a crisis. While plans are finein principle, testing them and the staff’sability to react and manage in a crisis isalso vital. In the case of VisitScotland andSTERG, a suspected case of avian flu inOrkney in March 2006 and a case in April2006 readily tested the corporate crisiscommunication team response, and anumber of valuable lessons were learnedthrough an actual scenario developed in2005 actually coming to fruition in 2006.Among the key lessons were the overrid-ing importance of a communicationsstrategy, the need for prompt cascading ofa seamless and harmonised source ofinformation to the tourism sector, typi-cally within hours of a crisis emerging,and preparedness for the eventuality.

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terrorism,16 which illustrates the severitywith which it is being rated as a crediblerisk, reflected in the contingency plans ofmajor organisations for this risk.

While scenario planning is not an exactscience, it can be used in a veryconstructive manner to help an organisa-tion to clarify and understand the natureof the risks it faces in the global operatingenvironment. VisitScotland has been ableto use scenario planning to bring sense toan incredibly complex and multi-dimen-sional problem that requires a multi-disciplinary team able to cross multipleboundaries such as tourism, managementscience, economics and medicine, as wellas recognising the value of networkingand communication tools and channels. Ifanything has been learned from thisprocess, it is that communication will becritical at each stage of a pandemic(before, during and after the event) so thatstaff and other stakeholders are not onlyprepared, but understand the nature ofwhat may befall them. Creating crisisplans is laudable, but they are of littleuse without being tested, critiqued andamended, as the experience of avian flu inScotland has shown. Tourism is an activitythat performs best when it operates in astable social and economic environment;crises test the confidence of consumerswho are making a discretionary purchaseand a decision to travel, so planning forand anticipating crises is now a vital rolefor every NTO.

� VisitScotland, 2007.

REFERENCES

(1) It is important to stress throughout thispaper that many large multinationalorganisations and public sector bodies,internationally, have recognised this risk(and some have been issued directivesfrom central government or arerequired by legislation such as the UK

Therefore, putting a plan to the test is thebest form of critically evaluating itssuccess and failure as well as areas forimprovement. Furthermore, prompt feed-back from stakeholders and clients is vital,as with STERG in the case of avian flu.However, a flu pandemic is likely to be ofa much greater impact than avian flu andso the preparations that organisations needto make are far greater. While manyexamples of manuals and checklists nowexist for businesses in this area (eg theCanadian Manufacturers and ExportersAssociation has an excellent handbookand guide15), these need tailoring to thespecifics of particular businesses andsectors.

CONCLUSIONSSome cynics will say that a flu pandemicis best treated like the Millennium Bug —something everyone got very worriedabout but did not actually happen. Unfor-tunately, a flu pandemic is much moreserious than the Millennium Bug. It is stillunclear about the timescale of such anevent unfolding, but with other globalrisks such as terrorism now proving to bea challenge for businesses, the process ofbusiness continuity planning is a vitalstep for many organisations in relation torisk assessment and preparations in theevent of a major event that interruptsnormal business activity. The implica-tions for emergency planning are similarlyprofound. A flu pandemic would proveto be a major global event that woulddamage economic activity irrespective ofbusiness sector, which is underscored bythe measures adopted by national govern-ments in terms of pandemic contingencyplans and many large businesses nowtaking the threat seriously and makingtheir own contingency plans for businesscontinuity. The Global Risks report ratesa flu pandemic in the same category as

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Civil Contingency Act 2004 to preparefor such an eventuality). However, it isthe small to medium sized enterprisesthat may remain very exposed to thisrisk, as long-term planning horizons areoften not possible due to thedominance of operational issues.

(2) Brownstein, J., Wolfe, C. and Mandl,K. (2006) ‘Empirical evidence for theeffect of airline travel on inter-regionalinfluenza spread in the United States’,PLOS Medicine, Vol. 3, No. 10,pp. 1–10.

(3) VisitScotland (2006) ‘Tourism inScotland’, available at:www.visitscotland.org/research (accessed8th May, 2006).

(4) World Economic Forum, MME, MerrillLynch and Swiss Re (2006) ‘GlobalRisks 2006’, World Economic Forum,Geneva, Switzerland.

(5) Ibid., p. 4.(6) Yeoman, I., Galt, M. and

McMahon-Beattie, U. (2005) ‘A casestudy of how VisitScotland prepared forwar’, Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 44,No. 1, January, pp. 6–20.

(7) Ibid.(8) Ibid.(9) Van der Heijden, K. (2003) ‘Scenarios:

The Art of Strategic Conversation’,John Wiley, Chichester, UK.

(10) Blake, A. (2006) ‘The structure of theMoffat CGE model. A discussionpaper’, available at: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/ttri (accessed 12thMay, 2006).

(11) The model includes 82 industries and82 corresponding commodities. Theseinclude the tourism-related sectors oflarge hotels, small hotels, bed andbreakfast establishments andguesthouses, self-cateringaccommodation, caravans and camping,restaurants and catering, transport,recreational services and retaildistribution. Within the model,industries pay factors of production inreturn for factor services, pay taxes andpurchase intermediate inputs. Labour is

mobile between sectors but capital isspecific to the sector in which it isemployed. Labour (in total) and capitalin each sector are not fixed in supply,as the ‘open’ nature of the Scottisheconomy allows changes in wages (andrental rates of capital) to induce changesin the supply of factors in Scotland.Exports and imports occur for each ofthe 82 commodities (except where datashow these flows to be zero) and aremodelled separately for trade with therest of the UK and the rest of theworld. Scotland faces exogenous worldprices and imported products aredifferentiated according to region oforigin. Exports are differentiated fromgoods produced for domestic use.

(12) Page, S. J., Yeoman, I., Munro, C.,Connell, J. and Walker, L. (2006) ‘Acase study of best practice —VisitScotland’s prepared response to aninfluenza pandemic’, TourismManagement, Vol. 27, No. 3,pp. 361–393.

(13) ‘Emergency’ is the accepted term usedto manage public sector planning forevents such as a pandemic, althoughmost organisations will normallycategorise this activity as crisismanagement.

(14) Human resources issues are centralconcerns for most organisations in apandemic. A very useful global reviewof the state of preparedness oforganisations in terms of humanresources has been provided: MercerHuman Resource Consulting (2006)‘Avian Flu Pandemic PreparednessSurvey Report’, Mercer HumanResource Consulting, New York, NY,Spring, available at:http://www.mercerHR.com/avianflu.

(15) Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters(2006) ‘Influenza Pandemic: ContinuityPlanning Guide for CanadianBusinesses’, Canadian Manufacturersand Exporters, Toronto, ON.

(16) World Economic Forum et al., ref. 4above.

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