www.bts.gov

How We Estimated The CFS Out-of-Scope

Sectors Felix Ammah-Tagoe, Ph.D.

Senior Research Consultant/Project Manager

MacroSys Research and Technology@ BTS-Research and Innovative Technology

Administration, USDOT

Talking Freight SeminarFebruary 15, 2006

www.bts.gov

Sector Coverage

Sectors in CFSManufacturing MiningWholesale trade Selected Retail trade

Sectors not in CFSImports Publishing Farm based Construction Logging ServicesFisheries Retail Crude Petroleum Municipal solid waste Natural gasSectors partially in CFSExports Petroleum products

Other sectorsHousehold & office goods moves In-transit

Total composite national estimates

Serve as benchmark for the

FHWA Freight Analysis Framewo

rk II

www.bts.gov

Retail Trade

• CFS attempted to partially cover this sector but coverage was not as expected

• New estimates cover retail companies, including motor vehicle and parts dealers; furniture, home goods, electronic and appliance, building materials, clothing, etc. stores; and general merchandise stores.

• Data drawn from the VIUS, Economic Census, mileage data from the CFS, and input-output from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.bts.gov

Retail Trade (cont.)

• Data sources and method of estimation – Values = Based on sales receipts of

retail trade industries (from 2002 Economic Census)

– Tons = Values * Weight-value ratios (from 2002 CFS)

– Ton-miles = Tons * Miles per shipment (from 2002 VIUS)

• Remaining Issues– Need to provide estimates by mode

www.bts.gov

Construction

• CFS excludes shipments originating in the construction sector.

• The new joint estimates cover shipments of companies engaged in construction of residential and commercial buildings, utility systems, road and bridge construction, and specialty trade contractors.

• Estimates based on the Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS), the Economic Census, and average miles per shipment information by commodity from the 1997 CFS.

www.bts.gov

Construction (cont.)• Data sources and method of

estimation– Ton-miles = Truck payload weight * Truck

loaded miles (from 2002 VIUS)– Tons = Ton-miles / Miles per shipment

(from 2002 VIUS)– Values = Tons * Value-weight ratios (from

2002 CFS)

• Remaining Issues– Shipments by truck only (other modes are

not covered)

www.bts.gov

Services

• CFS excludes shipments originating in the service sector.

• New estimates covers shipments from service sector companies engaged in, for example, accommodation and food, rental and leasing, repair and maintenance, and scientific and technical services.

• Estimates based on the VIUS, the Economic Census, and average miles per shipment information by commodity from the 1997 CFS.

www.bts.gov

Services (cont.)

• Data sources and method of estimation – Ton-miles = Truck payload weight * Truck

loaded miles (from 2002 VIUS)– Tons = Ton-miles / Miles per shipment (from

2002 VIUS)– Values = Tons * Value-weight ratios (from

2002 CFS)

• Remaining Issues– Shipments by truck only (other modes are not

covered)

www.bts.gov

Logging Sector

• CFS excludes logging due to the switch from SIC to NAICS in the 2002 CFS– Logging changed from in-scope manufacturing

under SIC code to out-of-scope agriculture under NAICS

– The data gap includes logs and other wood in rough

• New estimates based on data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Statistics, the Rail Waybill Sample, and the Waterborne Commerce of United States

www.bts.gov

Logging (cont.)

• CFS excludes logging due to the switch from SIC to NAICS in the 2002 CFS

• Data sources and method of estimation– Tons = 1997 tons (from 1997 CFS) * growth of

logs output (2002/1997) (from the Census of Agriculture)

– Ton-miles = Tons * Miles per ton ratio (from

1997 CFS) – Values = Tons * Value-ton ratio (from 1997

CFS)

www.bts.gov

Publishing

• CFS does not cover publishing due to the switch from SIC to NAICS in the 2002 CFS.– Publishing changed from in-scope

manufacturing under SIC code to out-of-scope information under NAICS

– Commodities missing include printed products

• New estimates based on data from the Economic Census and average miles per shipment information from the 1997 CFS.

www.bts.gov

Publishing (cont.)

• Data Sources and method of estimation– Values = Sales receipts of NAICS

5111 and 51223 industries (from 2002 Economic Census)

– Tons = Value * Value-ton ratio (from

2002 CFS) – Ton-miles = Tons * Miles per ton (from

2002 CFS)

www.bts.gov

Imports

• CFS excludes imports because CFS is shipper-based and covers domestic business only

• Estimates covers official U.S. merchandise imports trade by mode and commodity.

• Value and weight information derived from trade data. Ton-miles derived as sum of tonnage multiplied by estimated shipment travel distance for each mode.

www.bts.gov

Imports (cont.)

• Data source and method of estimation– Values = Based on data from Census Bureau – Tons = Based on data from the Transborder

dataset, & Census Bureau’s Trade Statistics– Ton-miles = Tons * average length of haul

(from Rail Waybill, BTS, US Army Corps of Engineers, 2002 CFS, & Association of Oil Pipelines)

• Remaining Issues– Double counting of some imports already

covered by CFS

www.bts.gov

Exports

• While the CFS includes export, it partially covers all export shipments

• Our estimates represents the net difference between official U.S. merchandise exports and the exports measured in the CFS by mode and commodity.

www.bts.gov

Exports (cont.)• Analysis indicates that CFS

underestimates export shipments, and misclassifies modal distributions

• Data sources and method of estimation– Values = Values.T (from U.S. trade data) – 2002 CFS

exports values– Tons = [Values.S * Weight-value ratios of imports

(surface modes from official trade data)] + [Tons for air & water from official trade data] – [2002 CFS exports tons]

– Ton-miles = [Tons.T * Miles per ton (from CFS export data)] – [2002 CFS exports ton-miles]

www.bts.gov

Household and Office Goods

• As a “shipper” survey the CFS does not cover these shipments

• Our estimates covers movement of household goods and used institutional or commercial furniture and equipment.

• Data from the Economic Census and the American Moving and Storage Association.

www.bts.gov

Household and Office Goods (cont.)

– Principal commodities include electronics, furniture & mixed freight

• Data sources and method of estimation– Values = Sales receipt of NAICS 48421 (from

2002 Economic Census)– Tons = Values * Value per ton ratio (from

American Moving and Storage Association)– Ton-miles = Tons * Miles per ton (from 2002

CFS)

www.bts.gov

Major Findings

• Released in Freight in America report• Over $19 billion tons of freight valued at

$13 trillion was carried over 4.4 trillion ton-miles in 2002

• Typical day in 2002 - Approx. 53 million tons of goods valued at about $36 billion moved nearly 12 billion ton-miles on the national multimodal transportation network

www.bts.gov

Major Findings

Value (billion $)

Tons (million)

Ton–miles (billion)

All Modes1 13,052 19,487 4,409

Single modes 11,599 18,894 4,073

Truck2 9,075 11,712 1,515

Rail 392 1,979 1,372

Water 673 1,668 485

Air (incl. truck and air) 563 6 13

Pipeline3 896 3,529 688

Multiple modes 1,121 229 233

Parcel, postal, or courier 1,022 27 21

Truck and rail 77 52 50

Other multiple modes4 22 150 162

Unknown modes 331 365 103

www.bts.gov

Major Findings

• Trucking remains the mode of choice and is increasing in market share

• Nearly 1.7 billion tons of merchandise moved in and out of the US, accounting for over 9 percent of total tonnage

www.bts.gov

Comparison with 2002 CFS

• According to the composite estimates, more freight moves than reported in the CFS

• By value, 36 percent of the freight moved nationally were non-CFS shipments– About 40% by tonnage– About 29% by ton-miles

www.bts.gov

Comparison with 2002 CFS

  CFS Non-CFS Total

Value (billion $) 8,397 4,655 13,052

Tons (million) 11,668 7,819 19,487

Ton-miles (billion) 3,138 1,271 4,409

Percent share

Value 64.3 35.7 100.0

Tons 59.9 40.1 100.0

Ton-Miles 71.2 28.8 100.0

www.bts.gov

Summary

• A large proportion of the freight shipments of the United States is not covered by CFS

• Possible to use surrogate data sources to reliably estimate out-of-score sectors

• Further research needed to, for example:– Estimate construction, services, and retail

shipments by other modes besides trucks

www.bts.gov

Follow-Up Questions?

Felix Ammah-Tagoe202/366-8926

felix.ammah-tagoe@dot.gov