Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
How Can Engineered Systems Change Society
Daniel Has7ngs CEO/Director SMART
Professor of Aeronau8cs & Astronau8cs Professor of Engineering Systems, MIT
December 2014
©
© 2012020 2014
2
A G E N D A § How have Engineered Systems affected Society?
Ø Engineering Achievements of the last century
Ø Uncertainty
Ø Consequences – GPS as an example – Technical, Policy, Ethical
§ How will Engineered Systems affect Society?
Ø Vision of the Future in Mobility par8cularly Urban – an example (thanks to SMART FM (Emilio Frazzoli) and Dan Roos – Interna8onal Motor Vehicle Program, MIT)
© 2012020 2014
19th Century 1 Billion
Timeline
20th Century 2.5 Billion
21st Century 6.5 Billion
22nd Century ? 10+ Billion?
Industrial Revolu7on
“Great Inven7ons”
Automobile (1889)
Telephone (1876)
Lightbulb (1879)
Other ”spines” Aircra\ (1903) Airports Air Transport Vaccines (1796) Hospitals Health Care System Etc…
Highways (1930)
PSTN (1880)
Electrical Power Grid
Engineering Systems
GPS, SMS
Plug-‐Ins, Outages …
Servers, E-‐box
World Population
18th Century 0.7 Billion
Transporta8on (2000+)
Communica8ons (2000+) Energy
(2000+)
Air
Internet
Rail
Satellites Nuclear
Solar, Wind
ENGINEERING ACHIEVEMENTS OF LAST CENTURY
© 2012020 2014
4
NAE Great Engineering Achievements of the 20th Century but largely unappreciated by the public 1. Electrification
2. Automobile
3. Airplane
4. Water Supply & Distribution
5. Electronics
6. Radio and Television
7. Agricultural Mechanization
8. Computers
9. Telephone
10. Air Conditioning & Refrigeration
11. Highways
12. Spacecraft
13. Internet
14. Imaging
15. Household Appliances
16. Health Technologies
17. Petroleum & Petrochemical Technologies
18. Laser and Fiber Optics
19. Nuclear Technologies
20. High-performance Materials
© 2012020 2014
A Framework for Uncertainty Discussions
Uncertainties
• Lack of Knowledge • Lack of Definition • Statistically Characterized
Variables • Known Unknowns • Unknown Unknowns
Risks/ Opportunities
• Disaster • Failure • Degradation • Cost/Schedule (+/-) • Market Shifts (+/-) • Need Shifts (+/-) • Extra Capacity • Emergent Capabilities
Outcomes
• Reliability • Robustness • Versatility • Changeability • Evolvability • Interoperability
Mitigations/ Exploitations
• Margins • Redundancy • Design Choices • Verification and Test • Generality • Upgradeability • Modularity • Tradespace Exploration • Portfolios & Real Options
<Uncertainty> causes <Risk/Opportunity> handled by <Mitigation/Exploitation> resulting in <Outcome>
UNCERTAINTY
© 2012020 2014
GPS: The path from basic research to worldwide capability
GPS - A New Capability!
HOW HAVE ENGINEERED SYSTEMS AFFECTED SOCIETY?
Sputnik orbit determined from Doppler shift (1957)
Navy Transit satellite used to give Polaris fix (1964)
Space qualified Atomic clocks developed in 1960s
GPS Constellation defined (1973)
Complete (24 sats) (approx 1990)
© 2012020 2014
GPS: CIVILIAN USES • Navigation for cars
Ø I navigate in the Boston area and Singapore using GPS
• Laying out lobster traps in Gloucester, MA
• Plowing of large fields
• Timing for the stock market
• Cell phone handover timing • With a local database, finding good places to eat
• Finding your way when hiking in the mountains
• Keeping track of prisoners
• Keeping track of babies and older people
• Et cetera
© 2012020 2014
Foreseen,
Happened Foreseen,
Didn’t Happen Unforeseen, Happened
Boons Use of knowledge of orbit to determine position on Earth.
Simply a backup system to Loran; nuclear weapon guidance
Robotic plows; vehicle navigation; cellular phone timing; self-provided handheld units used by soldiers in the battlefield; rescue operations; air traffic control; user-specific wireless advertising; synchronized electronic transactions; Internet network time protocol clocks; guiding the blind; OnStar; delivery and service vehicle tracking; E911; Autonomous Vehicle Navigation; Differential GPS (DGPS) and Wide Area Differential GPS (WADGPS)
Banes ---- Use against creators in warfare (e.g. by Soviet Union)
Reduced personal privacy; possibility of precision terror attacks; vulnerability to jamming
“MYOPTMETRICS” for GPS
© 2012020 2014
GPS: POLICY ISSUES • Should signal be made available to the world
Ø Yes but only degraded signal and retain option to close down
• In 1997, White House ordered S/A turned off and signal available to the world in perpetuity Ø Too valuable but how to stop adversaries from using it against US?
• Europeans, Russians, Chinese don’t trust US and develop their own systems Ø How to prevent this (cannot) Ø Try to make systems (Europeans) somewhat compatible
• Cyber issues Ø How to prevent GPS spoofing
o FAA considering wide area augmentation for landing planes
• Should the radio- spectrum adjacent to the GPS signals be sold? Ø Light Squared, FCC said no
© 2012020 2014
GPS: ETHICAL ISSUES
• Implications of always knowing position and time Ø Privacy issues (cell phone; how much does it store)
Ø Tracking of employees (truckers, taxi-cabs)
Ø Tracking of friends and family
• Police and courts use GPS Ø Police can attach GPS device to car without prior approval
• GPS has been used to track people with dementia
• Should consent to be tracked always be required?
© 2012020 2014
11
ENGINEERED SYSTEMS AND SOCIETY
u Engineered Systems have redefined how we live and generally improved the human condi8on u Predic8ons however have been fraught with uncertainty which has given new risks and opportuni8es
u GPS as an example
u Engineered Systems will con8nue to define how we live u Will look at personal mobility and the automobile transporta8on system u But always remember, uncertainty!
© 2012020 2014
The Automobile and an Efficient Transporta7on Network
• In Boston area, inns were places for riders to stay when they had ridden a few miles
• In NYC in the late 1890s, concern that horse manure on the streets would be to the knees by the mid twenties
• All these were changed by the rise of the automobile
• The development of the automobile and a network of large scale highways Ø Allowed personal mobility to flourish Ø In US, allowed the development of suburbs where people could live and work in the city
Ø Allowed for the efficient transportation of goods o Fresh fruit every day in MA
© 2012020 2014
THE AUTOMOBILE SYSTEM
• Consequences Ø Led to families living much further apart Ø Contributes to global climate change by burning gasoline
Ø In cities has led to massive congestion (too many cars) ◦ In some cities, traffic is congested for many hours a day
• Policy and Legal Issues Ø Regulation of emissions
Ø Traffic laws Ø Safety policies
© 2012020 2014
FUTURE OF THE ENGINEERED AUTOMOBILE SYSTEM
• Personal mobility is still highly valued and the bedrock of an advanced society
• Vision of the future Ø autonomous vehicles to address the first and last mile problem
Ø well regulated traffic flows via dynamic economic choices
Ø use of big data to make decisions when cars can communicate with each other
© 2012020 2014
TACKLING THE URBAN MOBILITY CRISIS in SINGAPORE
• Exploding demand for urban mobility
• Infeasible to keep expanding physical infrastructure (roads, highways)
• Growing concerns in environmental impact
© 2012020 2014
THE 21st CENTURY AUTOMOBILE SYSTEM -‐
Most Significant Changes in The Past 100 Years
• Automotive Information Systems Ø Developing Autonomous Self Driving Cars
• Alternatives to Internal Combustion Engine Ø Hybrid
Ø Electric
Ø Hydrogen Fuel Cell
Ø Combine With City Car
• Alternatives to Auto Ownership Ø Mobility on Demand
Ø Auto Access When and Where You Want It
© 2012020 2014
AUTOMOTIVE INFORMATION SYSTEMS
• Existing Systems Ø Driver Navigation – Provide Most Direct Route Information for Drivers
Ø Traffic Management- Electronic Toll Collection on Bridges, Tunnels and Roadways - Variable Pricing to Balance Peak and Off Peak Travel
Ø Congestion Pricing - Control Travel to Urban Center
• Emerging Systems Ø Vehicle to Vehicle Communication
Ø Internet Access – The Always Connected Car
Ø Semi Autonomous Vehicles
Ø Autonomous Vehicles
© 2012020 2014
Systems that collect real-‐8me informa8on and analyse, model, simulate and visualise transport systems and mobility behaviour
SMART MOBILITY LIVE Singapore!
Crowd Coun8ng
© 2012020 2014
CROWD COUNTING Camera-based counting at NUS shuttle bus stops (1 week, 7000+ images)
Phone-based ringtone counting
Crowd counting at hawker centers
© 2012020 2014
LIVE Singapore! Objective: Platform for collection, fusion, distribution and visualization of real-time data from different sources in Singapore that can serve as the active application of a semantic web platform to the management of the city, and form the basis for crowd-sourced open application development.
Results: ◦ Urban Demo 2011: Live Singapore! @ SAM
◦ Urban Demo 2012: Visual Explorations of Urban Mobility (bus passengers, data lenses, accidents/breakdowns, etc)
◦ Tool Release 2013: Data Collider ◦ Urban Demo 2014: Urban Mobility Data Browser @
National Museum
© 2012020 2014
LAND-‐EFFICIENT MOBILITY
Efficient mobility and behavioral solu8ons to overcome first mile-‐last mile obstacles for public transport
Signal control algorithm!
Mobility on Demand with Autonomous Vehicles
© 2012020 2014
Infrastructure, technology and urban policy designs to influence
mobility behaviour towards sustainable transport modes
MOBILITY BEHAVIOR
Accessibility Housing/Work Loca7ons Vehicle ownership
Trip Chains Travel Time/Cost
SimMobility: Modeling humans, vehicles, phones from milliseconds to years
Early-bird Workers!
Adventurers!
© 2012020 2014
AUTOMOTIVE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INNOVATIONS OCCURRING AT RAPID PACE
• Google – January 2014 –Open Auto Alliance Ø Android Common Operating System Ø Audi, GM, Honda, Hyundai
• Apple March 2014 – Car Play – IPhone and IOS Ø Ferrari, Mercedes, Benz, Volvo Ø Planned in GM, Ford, Honda
• 4G Telematics in Audi and Chevrolet This Year
• Who Controls the Supply Chain Ø Silicon Valley vs. Auto Manufacturers Ø Google Inside
• The Technology Mismatch Ø Cars/Decade, Technology/Years
© 2012020 2014
SEMI AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES ARE AVAILABLE NOW
• 2014 Cadillac CTS Ø Forward Collision Alert Ø Side Blind Spot Alert Ø Rear Cross Traffic Alert Ø Lane Departure Warning Ø Safety Alert Seat Ø Rear Vision Camera Ø Intelligent Beam Headlights
• 2015 Mercedes C Class Ø Intelligent Drive – Collision Prevention Assist – Automatic Braking If Object Detected Ø Automatic Parking Assist Ø Distronic Plus – Follow Car Ahead up to 37mph (Brake and Speeding)
© 2012020 2014
ACCIDENT AVOIDANCE THROUGH VEHICLE-‐TO-‐VEHICLE COMMUNICATION
• US DOT Ann Arbor Michigan Demonstration
Ø 3,000 vehicles Emit Short Range Safety Signal
Ø Alert Driver When Potential Accident is Imminent (Vehicle or Pedestrian)
Ø Vehicle to Vehicle Communication could prevent 76% of crashes on US Roads
Ø Requirement on New Vehicles in 2017
© 2012020 2014
SELF DRIVING – AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
• Google Car – 500,000 Accident Free Miles Since 2009
• Volvo and BMW Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicles at Consumer
Electronics Show
• Autonomous Vehicles Legal In Four States
• Nissan, Mercedes Benz Commit to Commercially Available
Autonomous Vehicles in 2020
© 2012020 2014
• Disruptive Technology Ø Reduction In Traffic Deaths and Injuries (1.3 Million Killed, 50 Million Injured) Ø Remote Parking Outside Central City Ø Reduce Congestion Ø Provide Mobility for Elderly and Disabled
Ø Impact Urban Structure
• Major Issues Remain Ø Technological Complexity Ø Cost Ø Driver Acceptance Ø Legal and Regulatory Ø Liability Insurance
SELF DRIVING – AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
© 2012020 2014
AUTOMOTIVE PROPULSION SYSTEMS – Major Impact on Energy and Environment
• Hybrid Cars Ø Toyota Prius Available for 13 Years Ø Transition Technology
• Electronic Cars Ø GM Volt and Nissan Leaf Ø Tesla Innovates as New Electric Car Company –Charging Stations, Battery Swap
• Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars Ø GM Honda and Toyota Will Introduce in 2015 on Limited Basis
• The Realities Ø ICE will Continue to Improve and Dominate The Market Ø Regulations Drive Market
◦ Zero-Emission Vehicles ◦ Fuel Economy Standards
Ø Government Incentives Motivate Sales Ø Limited Battery Range and Recharge Time Are Constraints
© 2012020 2014
SUSTAINABILITY IMPACTS FROM AUTOMOTIVE SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS
Infrastructure System
Information System
Energy System
Smart Grid
© 2012020 2014
ALTERNATIVES TO CAR OWNERSHIP – Mobility on Demand – Car Sharing
• Ride Sharing – Car Pooling and Van Pooling Ø Focus on Work Trip
• Peer to Peer Car Sharing Ø Car Rental Matching by Location, Vehicle Type or Cost Ø Relay Rides, Get Around, Hubber
• Subscription Short Term Car Rental Ø Zip Car Ø Similar to Verb Bike Sharing
• Worldwide On Demand Taxi Service Ø Reliable, Quality Control, Surge Pricing Ø Uber, Sidecar, LYFT
• Car Ownership is Decreasing Ø 19 Year Olds With Drivers Licenses - 1983-87.3% , 2010- 69.5%
© 2012020 2014
SUMMARY – Future of Auto Systems
• Alternative Energy Sources to ICE Will Take Time to Penetrate the Market (Hybrid, Electric, Fuel Cell)
• Autonomous Vehicles Are a Disruptive Technology with Major Life Style and Urban Structure Impacts Ø Commercially Available by 2020
• Who Controls the Supply Chain Ø Silicon Valley vs. Detroit
• New Car Sharing Alternatives Decrease Reliance on Auto Ownership Ø They are Complimentary
© 2012020 2014
CONSEQUENCES?
• Personal mobility will be greatly enhanced and be much more effective compared to the present
• Where people live will likely change
• The impact on the environment will be reduced Ø Less roads?
• However, nefarious uses may also emerge given the ability to see where people are going and access it remotely
© 2012020 2014
• Engineered Systems have substantially improved the way that humans live and saved lives
• Engineered Systems have enabled new modalities in how we live e.g the Global Positioning System
• Some of these have been foreseen, many have not. Predictions of the future have always been fraught with uncertainty Ø Uncertainties can arise at many levels
• The engineered system that is the automobile & the implications for personal mobility are undergoing substantial change Ø New auto technologies
Ø New information systems
Ø New ride sharing options enabled by IT
Ø New ability to plan for the long term with “big data”
HOW WILL ENGINEERED SYSTEMS CHANGE SOCIETY
© 2012020 2014
HOW CAN ENGINEERED SYSTEMS CHANGE SOCIETY?
• Engineered Systems do change society • By creating new integrated options based on technology (either new or used in
new ways) for addressing societal needs
• However, new emergent issues arise from uncertainty and the reactions of people to the system
• Leads to intended and unintended consequences
• New policies, regulations and laws
• They deserve serious research in an interdisciplinary manner
hap://smart.mit.edu
THANK YOU
