http://www.sealevelrise.info/

Steve George

Likelihood of flooding

What has been done previously?

•Find your nearest decent tide- gauge (what’s happened previously)

•Fit a distribution to the extremes & extrapolate

•Calculate risk you are willing to take. e.g. Melbourne Water requires that any new development is protected in the 1 in 100 year flood event.

What of the future?

Sea-level is rising, so can no longer just look to the past for what will happen in the future.

One options is to choose an arbitrarily large height (above which you are allowed to build)•This can be expensive, and prevents a planner from performing a comprehensive risk analysis.

Alternatively, provide a localised calculation of flood likelihood.•Uncertainty in past•Uncertainty in future

Canute Output

Canute

Additional Features

•Number of eventsHow many times will it

flood?

•Storm-surge climatologies

With and without tropical cyclones (Port Hedland)

•Shoreline recessionModelling by Water

research Laboratory

• Wave setup/runupEffects of waves on flood likelihood

Canute

Additional Features

•Number of eventsHow many times will it

flood?

•Storm-surge climatologies

With and without tropical cyclones (Port Hedland)

•Shoreline recessionModelling by Water

research Laboratory

• Wave setup/runupEffects of waves on flood likelihood

Canute

Additional Features

•Number of eventsHow many times will it

flood?

•Storm-surge climatologies

With and without tropical cyclones (Port Hedland)

•Shoreline recessionModelling by Water

research Laboratory

• Wave setup/runupEffects of waves on flood likelihood

Regionally specific beach types modelled under localised storm-surge conditions

Canute

Additional Features

•Number of eventsHow many times will it

flood?

•Storm-surge climatologies

With and without tropical cyclones (Port Hedland)

•Shoreline recessionModelling by Water

research Laboratory

• Wave setup/runup

Effects of waves on flood likelihood

Not just still-water effects

http://www.sealevelrise.info/