Hürlimann Kap7

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  • 8/3/2019 Hrlimann Kap7

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    3,;?0=

    !,>?0=492 .:8;70C4?D B4?3

    8,?=4.0>

    0A> :BF H? MABL :G= MA> ?HEEHPBG@ K BL MH LAHP MA:M =>I>G=BG@ HG MA>BG?HKF:MBHG GM RHN K>BO> : KM:BG K>LNEM 0ABL BL =HG> BG MPH I:KML 0ABLK :==K>LL>L F:MKBL PA>K>:L MA> ?HEEHPBG@ K ?HL HG LBFNE:MBHGL0A> TKLM L> LM>K:L BGMKH=N= BG MA> IK>OBHNL K :G= =>:EL PBMA MA> K>E:MBHG ;>MP>>G :O:KB:;E> :G= MA> LRLM>F 0A> L>:EL PBMA MA> K>E:MBHG ;>MP>>G MPH

    O:KB:;E>L @:BG LM:KMBG@ PBMA A:K=ER :GR BG?HKF:MBHG :G= ;>A:OBHK H? : LRLM>F BG MA> H? MBF> BMBL BFIHKM:GM MH M:D> MA> MBF> BGMH K:MBHG 0ABL BL =BL= E:M>K BG MABLK

    &07,?4:9 -0?B009 ,9 070809? ,9/ ?30 >D>?08

    =:>>48;,.?8,?=4C

    %G L> MA> %) P:L BGMKH=N= MA> P:R 2>LM>K7 I \8 NL>L BM $> =>LL PBMA ABL %) : F>MAH= NL>= MH JN:EB?R MA>BGUN>G H? >: MHP:K=L : LRLM>F $> NL>L BM :L : IK>OBHNL LM>I ;>?HK> NL> MA> %) :L :G :G:ERLBL MHHE:?M>K MA> ( BL : :GR K>LMKBE>F>GML K>E:M>= MH F:KD :GBFI: %) HMA :EEHP MH O:EN> =BK> E:LM L>GM>G : ?HEEHPBG@ T@

    NK> HG I 0A> >E>F>GM +IFBCJ9F BL : =BK>B@A;HK MH MA> >E>F>GM'F=79 PA>K>:L BJ9GHA9BH BL ?NKMA>K =HPG MA> ?HK> ?NKMA>K:P:R ?KHF MA> O:KB:;E> 'F=79 2>LM>K :L P>EE :L #HF>S :G= ,KH;LM :EEHP HG> MH

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    ! ! %!& $! !

    Price Turnover Earnings Investment

    S S S

    "B@NK> :NL:E BFI: >E>F>GM 'F=79 MAKHN@A MH +IFBCJ9F :G=BJ9GHA9BH >O>G MAHN@A MA>K> BL GH =BK>E:MBHG ;>MP>>G 'F=79 :G= BJ9GHA9BH 0A>R F:R O:KR MA> LMK>G@MA H? MA> BFI: L>GL> MA:M MA> >\>K MA:G MA:M HG BJ9GHA9BH %G MABL L> L>GLBMBOBMR H?MABL BFI: KHE> H? :G >E>F>GM PBMABG : LRLM>F BL =BL=

    '09>4?4A4?D :1 ?30 .=:>>48;,.?8,?=4C

    L MA> ;:LB< >Q:FIE> ?HK MA> ?HEEHPBG@ =BL LRLM>F H? MA> IHINE:MBHG BL NL>= ;:L>= HG MA> FH=>E NL>= ;R /M>KF:G 7 I \8 :G= BL @BO>GBG T@NK> :L : (

    1 Population

    7 Population

    relative tocarryingcapacity

    B

    R

    B

    R

    4 Fractionalbirth rate 5 Fractional

    death rateS

    O

    S

    6 Carryingcapacity

    O10 Maximum

    degradationof carryingcapacity

    S

    B

    Degradation

    2 Birth

    SS

    S

    3 Death

    S S

    O

    9 Degradationof carryingcapacity

    SS

    O

    8 Regeneration ofcarrying capacity

    S

    B

    "B@NK> ,HINE:MBHG @KHPMA BG

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    95H %G MABL FH=>E MA> M> ?HEEHPBG@ F>MAH=L :EE NL> MABL FH=>E

    :L>= HG MABL %) MA:M HGER BGLMA> =BK>GM ?HK MABL K>LMKB MA> ( W:L :G :?M>K MAHN@AMW :G= MA>K>?HK> A:O> EBGD>=MA> O:KB:;E>L =BK>K> : =BK>= HG MA> ?: :GR ?NKMA>K BG?HKF:MBHG MA:G MA> EBGDL ;>MP>>G MA> O:KB:;E>L RHN >QBLM>G H? : EBGD ;R INMMBG@ MA> T@NK> BGMH MA> :=>JN:M> LJN:K>0A> K>LNEM H? MABL :G:ERLBL BL @BO>G BG M:;E>

    0J0.? ?:

    1=:8 '

    ,HINE:MBHG BKMA >:MA

    "K: "K::MA K:M> :KKRBG@ @>G>K:MBHG H? < >@K:=:MBHG H? <

    ):Q =>@K H? <

    $'

    0:;E> :LB<

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    0 1 2 3 4

    1

    2

    3

    4

    PS

    AS

    0

    1

    C

    AB8

    Variables atthe same spot:

    = 2, 3, 9= 4, 5, 10= 6, 7

    A

    B

    C

    12

    8

    4

    2

    0.5

    1

    2

    "B@NK> .HE>L : =B:@K:F PABL> O:KB:;E>L :K> G>NMK:E = MHMA> HMA>K O:KB:;E>L 0A> !E>F>GML LBMN:M>= :M IHBGM :K> MA> FHLM K>:O:KB:;E>L :L MA>R EB> HG MA> LMK:B@AM EBG> K>IK>L>GMBG@ MA> -O:EN> H? PBMAMA> EHP>LM O:EN> !E>F>GM BL MA> O:KB:;E> MA:M BL MA> FHLM ;N\>KBG@ :L BM BLLBMN:M>= HG MA> BLHJN:GM PBMA MA> O:EN> H? %G T@NK> HG I:@> BM BL :KMA:M MA> O:KB:;E> )9;9B9F5H=CB C: 75FFM=B; 75D57=HM FNLM ;> : I:LLBO> O:KB:;E>

    BG MABL LRLM>F :L MA>K> :K> GH >E>F>GML MA:M BGUN>G BM0A> >\>K>GM L ?HK MA> :QBL BL @BO>G BG T@NK> >

    MA> L H? MA> :QBL A:L ;>>G BG:L>= BM BL EH@BL FHO>MHP:K=L MA> IHBGM H? HKB@BG %? LHF>HG> KHE> H? >: BL:;LHENM> HG> PHNE= A:O> MH :K@N> MA:M :EE >E>F>GML :K> FHK> HK E>LL ;N\>KBG@ BGT@NK> = MH MA> KHE> MA>R A:= BG MA> IK>OBHNL T@NK>

    0 2 4 8 10

    2

    4

    6

    10

    PS

    AS

    0

    C

    AB8

    Variables atthe same spot:

    = 2, 3, 9= 4, 5, 10= 6, 7

    A

    B

    C

    75

    50

    25

    12.5

    0.5

    1

    2

    6

    8

    1

    "B@NK> .HE>L :G=>= :QBL

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    %M F:D>L MA>K>?HK> L>GL> MH BGM>KIK>M MA> KHE> H? MA> O:KB:;E>L :L K>E:MBO> KHE>LMH MA> HMA>KL PBMABG : LRLM>F

    /HF> :NMAHKL =H GHM >QIEBLMKB =BK>= O:KB:;E>L:K> O:EN>= 0A> :K@NF>GM BL MA:M : O:KB:;E> GHM HGER >\>B@A;HKL

    ;NM :ELH O:KB:;E>L MA:M :K> ?NKMA>K =HPG MA> := MH: =BLMHKMBHG H? MA> KHE>L H? MA> >E>F>GML 0H BEENLMK:M> MABL >\> >E>F>GMLA:O> ;>>G :==BMBHG:EER O:EN>= BG M:;E>

    0J0.? ?:

    1=:8 '

    ,HINE:MBHG BKMA >:MA "K: "K::MA K:M> :KKRBG@ @>G>K:MBHG H? < >@K:=:MBHG H? <

    ):Q =>@K H?

    $'

    0:;E> HPG MA> :==BMBHG:E =HPG MA> >FIA:LBS>= L RHN > MA>BFIHKM:G H? MA> >E>F>GM 95H>G LMK>LL>= :G= MA>K>?HK> BML BGUN>GBG:L>= %M :K@N>= MA:M : BG 95H\>@ MA> >E>F>GM 5FFM=B; 75D57=HM :L MA> ?>P>K EBOBG@ ;>BG@L MA>K> :K> MA> E>LLH? MA> LNEMBG@ K>E:MBO> KHE> H? >: H?MABL G>P %) BL LAHPG BG T@NK>

    HFI:K>= MH MA> KHE>L H? >: BG MA> ;:LB< %) BG T@NK> HG I:@> MA> KHE> H? >E>F>GM 95H K>E:MBO>ER FBG MABL G>P %) "NKMA>K MA> O:KB:;E> 'CDI@5H=CB A:L EHLM BFIHKM:G :G= A:L

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    0 2 4 51

    2

    3

    4

    6

    PS

    AS

    0

    A

    B

    8

    Variables atthe same spot:

    = 1, 6= 4, 5, 10

    A

    B

    27

    18

    9

    4.5 0.5

    1

    2

    6

    5

    3

    1 29

    3

    7

    "B@NK> .HE>L NG=>K MA> BGUN>G H? =HPG MA> BGLI>QM LM>I LHF> ?NKMA>K BG?HKF:MBHG BL BG= BGMH MA> %) %? RHN A:O> FHK>BG?HKF:MBHG :;HNM MA> LRLM>F BG MA> L>GL> MA:M RHN P:GM MH :== BG?HKF:MBHG:;HNM MA> LMK>G@MA H? BFI:K> BL : K>G=>= P:R H? =HBG@ LH 0ABLF>MAH= A:L :EK>:=R ;>>G BGMKH=N= ;R 2>LM>K L>> I:@> \ ?:=P:R H? =HBG@ LH BL ;R NLBG@ MA> GNF;>KL MH PA>K> MA> T@NK>L LM:G= :L

    >FIMR 9: [email protected] MA>K> BL GH =BK>MP>>G O:KB:;E> :G=

    9: [email protected] B? O:KB:;E> =H>L GHM K>:KRIHHKER HK PBMA : AN@> MBF> E:@ HG L BG O:KB:;E>

    B0,6 [email protected] B? O:KB:;E> K>::DER HG : LMKHG@ BG O:KB:;E> LN;IKHIHKMBHG:E

    84//70 [email protected] B? O:KB:;E> K>: L:F>:L O:KB:;E> IKHIHKMBHG:E

    >?=:92 [email protected] B? O:KB:;E> K>: =BLIKHIHKMBHG:M>ER AB@A

    0ABL :IIKH:= :G= MA> K>LNEML :K> @BO>G BG M:;E> I

    "HEEHPBG@ MA> K>LNEML H? MA> %) MA> KHE>L H? >: :K> K>IK>L>GM>= BGT@NK> HG I:@> HFI:K>= MH MA> ;:LB< %) MA> KHE> H? MA> O:KB:;E>'CDI@5H=CB A:L FHO>= MHP:K=L MA> F57H=CB5@6=FH< F5H9 A:L FHO>= :P:R ?KHF MA> LIHM 0ABL F>:GL MA:M BM BL : K>E:MBO>ER;>MM>K BG=B HMA>KL BG 0A> JN>LMBHG MA:M F:R KBL> BL=H>L BM F:D> L>GL> MA:M MA> F57H=CB5@ 6=FH< F5H9 LAHNE= ;> : ;>MM>K BG=BJN>LMBHG RHN A:O> MH :G:ERS> PAR >E>F>GM A:L : AB@A>K I:LLBO> LNF ,/ BG MA> O:KB:;E> F57H=CB5@ 6=FH< F5H9 K>BO>L : AB@A>K

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    0J0.? ?:

    1=:8 '

    ,HINE:MBHG BKMA

    >:MA "K: "K::MA K:M> :KKRBG@ @>G>K:MBHG H? < >@K:=:MBHG H? <

    ):Q =>@K H? <

    $'

    0:;E> %) BG BG?HKF:MBHG LMK>G@MAL

    BFI:G :G= MA>G : M:D>G :L >@ BG ABG: PA>K> MA>RA:O> BGMKH=N= MA> HG> QIE:G:MBHG F:R ;> MA:M MA>?>KMBEBMR =>L ?:LM>K B? MA> >GOBKHGF>GM PHKL>GL = MH MA> K>=N >QI>GMBG@ MA> >QMK: BG?HKF:MBHG MA> KHE> H? >:E>F>GM

    =B\>K>GMB:M>= >O>G ?NKMA>K

    0 2 4 51

    2

    3

    4

    6

    PS

    AS

    0

    A

    8

    Variables atthe same spot:

    = 2, 3, 9= 5, 10

    A

    B

    27

    18

    9

    4.5 0.5

    1

    2

    6

    5

    3

    1

    6

    4

    1

    B

    7

    "B@NK> .HE>L H? >: PA>G MA> BG?HKF:MBHG :;HNM LMK>G@MA BL BG=

    !O>G MAHN@A MA>K> BL FHK> BG?HKF:MBHG INM BGMH MA> %) RHN FNLM D>>I BG

    FBG= MA:M MA> E>O>E H? F>:LNK>F>GM BL LMBEE :G HK=BG:E L :L BGMKH=N= ;R/M>O>GL 7 I 8 /MKB:DBG@ MA> GNF;>KL HGER K>IK>L>GM MA> K:GDHK=>K H? MA> >GMBMB>L HFI:KBLHGL H? @K>:M>K :G= LF:EE>K F:=> $HP>O>K

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    HI>K:MBHGL LN:GBG@E>LL0ABL F>:GL MA:M :G : LNF / HK ,/ H? ;R :==BG@ MAK>> BFI:L GHM A:O> MA> L:F> BFI:E>F>GM MA:M A:L HGER HG> H? :G= MA>K>?HK> :ELH :G / HK ,/ H? %M F>:GL

    MA:M LNKIK>M:MBHGL :K> GHM ?:EL> %? HG> HI>K:M>L PBMA :G HK=BG:E L MH =>L :G= F>:LNK>MA> BFI:TG> MA> KHE> H? :G >E>F>GM BG : LRLM>F MA> K>LNEML FNLM ;>?:EL> 0ABL ?:>G :==K>LL>= LH ?:K

    0A>K> BL : P:R MH P:M>K =HPG MABL :K@NF>GM +G> A:L MH :K@N> MA:M MA> E>O>EH? F>:LNK>F>GM NL>= BL :M E>:LM HG> E>O>E AB@A>K %? RHN NL> :G BGM>KO:E F>:LNK>F>GM MA> :IIEB>= HI>K:MBHGL PHNE= F:D> L>GL> 0H :O> LH MA> BGM>KIK>M:MBHGH? MA> T@NK>L A:L MH ;> FHK> H? MA> ?HEEHPBG@ DBG=

    >FIMR 9: [email protected] MA>K> BL GH =BK>MP>>G O:KB:;E> :G=

    9: [email protected] B? O:KB:;E> =H>L GHM K>:KRIHHKER HK PBMA : AN@> MBF> E:@ HG L BG O:KB:;E>

    B0,6 [email protected] B? O:KB:;E> K>::DER HG : BG O:KB:;E>

    84//70 [email protected] B? O:KB:;E> K>:

    >?=:92 [email protected] B? O:KB:;E> K>:

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

    6A,7@0

    2>LM>K NL>L MA> DO:EN> MH LI> E>G@MA H? MA> :QBL BG MA> K>LNEMBG@ T@NK>LMH =>M>KFBG> MA> KHE> H? >:E>F>GM L>> I 0H K> DO:EN> BL=>TG>= :L

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    % /&. *

    (

    *

    /

    ( GNF;>K H? O:KB:;E>L

    # BG=BL

    0A> B=>: BL MH :OHB= MA> =BL IK>OBHNL I:@>L %M @BO>L MA> PAHE>%) :G BFIK>LLBHG MA:M MA> KHE>L :K> :;LHENM> :G= GHM K>E:MBO> :L =BL=IKBHK 0ABL L> %M P:L L:B= MA:M MA>L BL G LH MA:M : O:KB:;E> PBMA :G / HK ,/ MA:M A:L MA> L:F> :FHNGM :LMA> GNF;>K H? O:KB:;E>L FNLM ;> BG MA> G>NMK:E :K>: 0A>K>?HK> MA> LI>G=L HG MA> GNF;>K H? >E>F>GML BG : LRLM>F 2>LM>K NL>L MA> GNF;>KL MH MH =>TG> MA> BFI: O:KB:;E> MH :GHMA>K 0ABL F>:GL MA:M : O:KB:;E>MA:M A:L : P>:D BGUN>G HG >O>KR HMA>K O:KB:;E> BG MA> LRLM>F :G= K>BO>L :P>:D BGUN>G ?KHF >O>KR HMA>K O:KB:;E> :M MA> L:F> MBF> BL : G>NMK:E O:KB:;E>:L BM PBEE ;> LBMN:M>= BG MA> GM>K H? MA> T@NK> HGL>JN>GMER : O:KB:;E> MA:M A:LLBFBE:K BGUN>G O:EN>= PHNE= ;> LBMN:M>= :MMA> O>KR MHI KB@AM K BG MA> K B? MA> DO:EN> BL : LRLM>F BL ;N\>KBG@ :G= TG:EER

    B? MA> DO:EN> BL MA> LRLM>F BL *>NMK:E %)

    %G M:;E> MA>K> :K> MPH >Q:FIE>L 0A> E>?M >Q:FIE> K>IK>L>GML : LRLM>FPA>K> >O>KR >E>F>GM A:L : P>:D BGUN>G HGMH :EE HMA>K O:KB:;E>L 0A> KB@AM>Q:FIE> L : LRLM>F PA>K> >:E>F>GM A:L : LMKHG@ BGUN>G HGMHHG> HMA>K O:KB:;E> HMA >Q:FIE>L A:O> BG L :K> G>NMK:E:G= MA>K>?HK> :K> LBMN:M>= BG MA> GM>K H? : KHE> =B:@K:F "NKMA>K MA> DO:EN>H? ;HMA LRLM>FL BL

    % /&.

    L MA> DO:EN> BL :;HO> MA> LRLM>F :L : PAHE> BL : HKR ;HMA LRLM>FL :K> NMK:E >E>F>GML

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    ! ! %!& $! !

    PBMAHNM >QIMBHGL %M BL MH MA> K>:=>K MH => B? MABL F:D>L L>GL> 0ABL BL :LMKHG@ :K@NF>GM ?HK MA> IKHIHL:E MA:M MA> KHE> H? >:E>F>GM BL HGER MH ;> L>>GK>E:MBO>ER = MH MA> HMA>KL K:MA>K MA:G :;LHENM>ER :L MA> DO:EN> LN@@>LML1LBG@ MA> ?HKFNE: ?HK QBMR :L BGMKH=N= HG I:@> MA> :G:ERLBL ?HK ;HMA

    FH=>EL BG M:;E> BL :L ?HEEHPL 0A> E>?M FH=>E E>F>GML :G= :GL MA:M MA> QBMR H? MA> E>?M >Q:FIE> BL "HK MA> KB@AM >Q:FIE>PA>K> MA>K> :K> :ELH >E>F>GML ;NM HGER K>E:MBHGL MA> G FNLL = MH MA> E>?M >Q:FIE>

    9/4.,?:=> ,9/ .:9?=:77,-70 A,=4,-70>

    %G MA> IK>OBHNL L> %)F>MAH= A:L ;>>G :G:ERS>= 0A>K>;R MA> LM:KMBG@ IHBGM P:L : FBGBF:E DGHPE>=@> :;HNM MA> LRLM>F %M A:L ;>>G LAHPG MA:MMA> %)F>MAH= BL O>KR L>GLBMBO> MHP:K=L AHP F:GR =BK>E:MBHGLABIL :K> O:EN>= "NKMA>K BG?HKF:MBHG A:L ;>>G :==>= BGMH MA> %) :G==BL= %M A:L ;>>G LAHPG MA:M MA> KHE>L H? MA> >E>F>GML :EP:RL A:O> MH ;>L>>G :L K>E:MBO> MH MA> HMA>KL

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

    LRLM>F PBEE K>:K : O:KB:;E> HK K>LM BG=BG PBEE BG=B:G MA> LRLM>F BL JN:EBM:MBO> LHENMBHG BL IK>L>GM>= BG MA> ?HEEHPBG@ L>

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    ! !$ ! ! &!

    (30 8,??0= :1 ?480

    8;,.? :1 , A,=4,-70 49 ?30 .:@=>0 :1 ?480

    %G MA> IK>OBHNL L> =BL BGM>K:MP>>G

    : O:KB:;E> :G= MA> LRLM>F K>@:K=BG@ BML BFI: =BLL MA> BFI: O:KB:;E> MH MA> G>QM ;>A:O> HO>K MA> H? MBF> 0H BEENLMK:M> MA> IKH;E>F HG> BF:@BG>L MA:M MA> F:G:@>F>GM P:GML MHK:BL> IKH=N LM:\WL FHMBO:MBHG

    motivation program productivityS

    0H =H LH MA> >Q> IE:GL : FHMBO:MBHG IKH@K:F :G= MA>G BFIE>F>GML BM0ABL =HG> BGLM:GMER ;NM K:MA>K M:D>L MBF> 0A>K>?HK> MA> BFI: FHMBO:MBHG IKH@K:F O:KB>L HO>K MA> H? MBF> K:MA>K MA:G ;>BG@ : BFI: H? MBF> F:R EHHDLBFBE:K MH MA> HG> =K:PG BG T@ %G LM:@> MA> F:G:@>F>GM F:R :GGHNGMA> IKH@K:F HK A:O> : KH:= LAHP %G MABL LM:@> MA>R :K> @:BGBG@ BG=BOB=N:EL PAHEBD> MH CHBG MA> IKHC>:F HK ;> D>R IE:R>KL BG MA> FHMBO:MBHG IKH@K:FNKBG@ MABL LM:@> MA> BFI: IKH@K:F BL LM:KMBG@ MH BG:L> %M F:R>O>G EHHL> BFI: F>:GMBF> K>:LHG F:R ;> MA:M MA> PHKD?HK MABGDLBM BL CNLM :GHMA>K B=>: ;R MA> F:G:@>F>GM MH D>>I I>HIE> ;NLR *>O>KMA>E>LL

    MA> FHMBO:MBHG IKH@K:F LM:KML IBG :G= A>G BFI:MK:GLBMBHG BGMH LM:@> BL UN>GM %G MABL LM:@> MA> IKH@K:F =BLIE:RL BML IHM>GMB:E:G= LH K>:L BML F:QBFNF BFI: MA> BGGMBO>L FHO> BGMH MA>MABK= LM:@> $>K> MA> FHMBO:MBHG IKH@K:F A:L ;>>G KNGGBG@ ?HK JNBM> : PABE> "HKMA> PHKD>KL MA> BGGMBO>L A:O> ;> ;:LB< :G= MA>K>?HK> :K> GHM FHMBO:MBG@:GRFHK> 0A> BFI:

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    ! ! %!& $! !

    A:L : G>:KER B=>:E LBMN:MBHG .>?>KKBG@ MH MA> >Q:FIE> BG T@ HG I MA> : FHMBO:MBHG IKH@K:F HG IKH=NLHO>K MA> H? MBF> :G= >G=L HG : AB@A>K E>O>E 0ABL G>P >JNBEB;KBNF BLMA> F:G:@>F>GML BGM>GMBHG %G MA> L> :@BGGBG@ ;NM :L MA> BFI:@:MBO>MA> : M MA> >G= H? MA> MK:HO>K:EE BFI: ;>EHP MA> I>:D S>KH HK >O>G PHKL> G>@:MBO>

    short-term middle-term long-termtime

    acc.

    influence

    strong

    middle

    weak

    "B@NK> M>KFBGHEH@R H? LMH BGUN>G =K:PG BG T@NK> BL MA>UHP :M : KM:BG IHBGM BG MBF> PA>K>:L MA> : LMHO>E 1LN:EER MH LAHP MABL QM HG> NL>L LBFNE:MBHG MHHEL

    9?0=;=0?,?4:9 :1 48;,.? 49 ?30 .:@=>0 :1 ?480

    ?NKMA>K IKH;E>F :KBL>L MA:M MA> BFI:KBH= ;NMMA> BGUN>G BG:L>L MAKHN@A : 0ABL F:R ;> MKN> ?HKLHF> L $HP>O>K MA>K> :K> F:GR L PA>K> MABL =H>L GHM :IIER %? : TKF>@ LM:KML :G BGM>KG:E FHMBO:MBHG >FIEHR>>LMABGD BG MA> ;>@BGGBG@ MA:M MA> IKH@K:F BL GH @HH= :L MA>R A:O> :EK>:=R KNGMAKHN@A LHF> NGLNKG:E IKH@K:FL :G= MA>K>?HK> =H GHM ;>EB>O> BG MA>LNP IKH@K:F 3A>G MBF> I:LL>L MA> >FIEHR>>L LM:KM MH LNIIHKM

    MABL FHMBO:MBHG IKH@K:F :G= LH MA> BFI: LA:KIERL PBMA F:GR FHMBO:MBHG BGGMBO>L MA>BK BGUN>G ?:=>L HO>K MBF>

    /H :?M>K LHF> MBF> A:L I:LL>= MA> BFI:G=L MH S>KH 0A> IKH@K:FMA>K>?HK> IKH=NL GHP HGER MNKG /N GHMK>IK>L>GM>= BG MA> %) %M PHNE= MA>K>?HK> ;> IK:F>GM BG @:MA>KBG@ BG?HKF:MBHG :;HNM MA> ;>A:OBHK HO>K MA> H? MBF>

    +G> P:R P:L IK>L>GM>= ;R MA> F>MAH= #)) BG K LM:KMBG@HG I:@> PA>K> MA> %FI:GM LM:@>L L> P:R BL MH %) 0ABL =HG>

    ;R %) ?HK LAHKMM>KF >\>M>KF >\>KF >\> IKH;E>F PBMA MABL :IIKH:KR=B[ NL>K MH => B? :G= AHP LMKHG@ :G >\> LHNK MH

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    ! !$ ! ! &!

    MA> K>IMHK BG MA> MAK>> MBF> LI:GL BL K>= %M F:R ?NGEE B? :GBGUN>G BL EBG>:K BG MA> H? MBF> NM H?M>G MA> ?NMNK> =>O>EHIF>GM BL GHMEBG>:K 0A>K>?HK> MABL MHHE PHNE= IKH=N K:G=HF LHENMBHGL

    IHLLB;E> LHENMBHG MH @:BG BG?HKF:MBHG :;HNM MA> ;>A:OBHK BG MA> H?

    MBF> MA> ?4808,?=4C

    !0,9492 :1 .=:>>?4808,?=4C

    %G MA> TKLM L> ?H =BL :G= =>E:R :G= BML BGUN>G HG BFI:>G LAHPG MA:MMBF> BL :G BFIHKM:GM ?: K>= PA>G LHEOBG@ Q

    IKH;E>FL $>G MA> B=>: H? : F:MKBQ 0) KHL> /H :L MA> %)@BO>L :GLP>KL MH MA> JN>LMBHG K>@:K=BG@ MA> KHE> H? : O:KB:;E> BG : LRLM>F MA>B=>: H? : 0) BL MH @BO> BG?HKF:MBHG :;HNM AHP ?:LM BFI::= MAKHN@A :LRLM>F 0A> :BF BL MH @BO> NL>KL : MHHE MH :LL>LL MA> KHE> H? :G >E>F>GM K>E:MBO>MH MA> HMA>KL BG : LRLM>F K>@:K=BG@ MBF> L BM BL MRI> H? BG?HKF:MBHG K>@:K=BG@ MA> GM MBF> 0A> G>QMI:K:@K:IA :==K>LL>L MA> L H? MA> >E>F>GML

    :9>?=@.?4:9 ,9/ 49?0=;=0?,?4:9 :1 , .=:>>?4808,?=4C

    0A> TKLM 0) BL :@:BG ;:L>= HG A:K=ER :GR BG?HKF:MBHG >QIM ?HK MA> DGHPGG MA> 0) L:F> O:EN>L :L MA> ;:LB< %) 0A>=B\>K>G EB>L BG MA> LNF H? MA> KHPL :G= L> :K> GHM G:F>= :L/ :G= ,/ ;NM K:MA>K :L 89@5M DFC8I7H=CB , :G= F979=J98 89@5M . 0A>, BL :G BG=B K>= >E>F>GMNM MA>K> BL : =B\>K>G BG \> LRLM>F MH MA>/ G >E>F>GM MA:M K>BO>L :G BFINEL> :G= A>G A:L :G BFINEL> MHP:K=L MA>LN=BG@ >E>F>GML MHM:E :FHNGM H? LMK>G@MA %M MA>K>?HK> F:D>LL>GL> MH :== MA>F NI :L PBMA MA> / %G =>E:R ;>A:O>L =B\>K>GMER

    0A> =>E:R = ;R :G >E>F>GM HGER =>I>G=L HG MA> MBF> BG MA> L>GL> MA:M :=>E:R BL : LAHKM MBF> E:@ HK : EHG@ MBF> @:I %M =H>L GHM IKH=N :GR G>P UHPL$>G BM F:D>L L>GL> GHM MH :== MA> O:EN>L ;NM K:MA>K MH :O>K:@> H?MA> = =>E:RL :L BG MA> ?HEEHPBG@ ?HKFNE: PA>K> ( K>IK>L>GML MA> GNF;>KH? O:KB:;E>L BG MA> LRLM>F

    -'# $

    (

    $>G MA> O:EN>L :K> :EP:RL ;>MP>>G MA> EHP>LM :G= MA> AB@A>LM K:M> NL>=PA>G >O:EN:MBG@ /BFBE:K MA> .O:EN> H? >:E>F>GM BL ?HEEHPBG@ ?HKFNE:

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    ! ! %!& $! !

    -'# $

    (

    0A> ;:LB< 0) A:L MA> GNF;>KL BG MA> F:MKBQ :L A:L MA> ;:LB< %) BGM:;E> HG I:@> 0A> =B\>K>G HGER EB>L BG MA> E:LM KHP :G= K>MA> . K>LI , A:O> O:EN>L H? /NL GHM @>G>K:M> :GR:==BMBHG:E DGHPE>=@>

    0A> G>QM LM>I BG :==BG@ BG?HKF:MBHG BL MH O:EN> MA> =>E:RL ;>MP>>G MA> >E>F>GML L @K:IABIK>L>GM:MBHGL :K> F:=> MH LAHP MA> =>E:R BG : LRLM>F MABLBG?HKF:MBHG LAHNE= :ELH ;> MK:GL?>KK>= BGMH : 0) IHLLB;E> P:R BL :FIMR 9: [email protected] MA>K> BL GH =BK>MP>>G O:KB:;E> :G=

    4880/4,?07D B? O:KB:;E> K>:=B:M>ER HGL BG O:KB:;E>

    >3:=??0=8 B? O:KB:;E> K>: =>E:RHG L BG O:KB:;E>

    84//70?0=8 B? O:KB:;E> K>: MBF>=>E:R HG : BG O:KB:;E>

    7:92?0=8 B? O:KB:;E> K>: =>E:RHG : BG O:KB:;E>

    IIERBG@ MABL EBLM MH MA> >Q:FIE> K>LNEML BG MA> ?HEEHPBG@ 0) M:;E>

    ?480 ?:

    1=:8 $

    ,HINE:MBHG BKMA >:MA ";K

    "=K < ,KM< .H< H<

    ):QH<

    &

    0:;E> KHLLMBF>F:MKBQ

    0ABL BG?HKF:MBHG MK:GL?>KK>= BGMH MA> T@NK> H? KHE> H? >:BG : LRLM>F G HG =>E:R "B@NK> LAHPL MA> IHLBMBHG H?>:E>F>GM :G= BML KHE> 0A>K> :K> ;:LBL :G >E>F>GM

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    ! !$ ! ! &!

    0 21 2.50.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    3

    RD

    DP

    0

    A

    4

    8

    Variables atthe same spot:

    = 6, 9A

    1.5

    2.5

    3

    0.5

    2 3

    7

    1

    5

    sluggish

    accelerative

    braking

    lively

    "B@NK> .HE> H? :G >E>F>GM BG MA> QM H? MBF>

    4A07D G >E>F>GM MA:M BL LBMN:M>= BG MABL K IKH=NL :EFHLM GH MBF>=>E:R %M K>:=B:M>ER PA>G O:EN>L NI MA> K %M :ELH @BO>LL LMK:B@AM :P:R =HPG MA> L> O:KB:;E>L A:O> MA> :=O:GM:@>MA:M MA>BK ;>A:OBHK :=CNLML ?:LM MH L BG MA> >GOBKHGF>GM +G MA>HMA>K A:G= B? MA>R :K> BGOHEO>= BG : K>BG?HK>=;:R LI>>=NI MA> =>O>EHIF>GM 0A>R A:O> : LF:EE , :G= .

    =,6492 !E>F>GML MA:M :K> LBMN:M>= MHP:K=L MABL K LEHP =HPG MA> =B??NLBHG 0A>R :GL MA:M MA>R:=CNLM K:MA>K ?:LM PA>G :G >E>F>GM NI MA> L ;NM MA> ?HEEHPBG@>E>F>GML :EB@G O>KR LEHP 0A>L> >E>F>GML PHKD :L : ;K:D> MA:M LEHPL =HPGMA> =B\NLBHG BG : LRLM>F

    '7@224>3 0A>L> :K> MA> =NEE >E>F>GML 0A>R A:O> : AB@A , :G= . 0ABLF>:GL MA:M MA>L> >E>F>GML HI>K:M> O>KR LEHP %M M:D>L LHF> MBF> NGMBEMA>R K>LIHG= M MA> L:F> MBF> BM M:D>L BML MBF> NGMBE MA> L A:II>G=HPG MA> F :L I:KM H? MA>LRLM>F "NKMA>K :L MA>R LEHP =HPG MA> L BG MA> LRLM>F BM M:D>LI:MB>G NGMBE : LRLM>F TG=L BML G>P ;:E:G :?M>K :G BGM>KO>GMBHG 0A>R:K> MA> F:BG ?HK HO>KLM>>KBG@

    ..070=,?4A0 0A> E:LM @HKR BL F:=> NI H? >E>F>GML PBMA : AB@A . :G= :EHP , 0A>R ;>A:O> MA> HIIHLBM> P:R H? MA> ;K:DBG@ >E>F>GML %M M:D>LLHF> MBF> NGMBE BFINEL>L :KKBO> :M MA>L> >E>F>GML ;NM MA>R L>G= MA>F ?:LM?HKP:K=

    0A> KHE>L H? MA> >E>F>GML A>EI MH F BG MA> L>GL> H? BL MA>LRLM>F :L : PAHE> K:MA>K U>QB;E> HK K:MA>K KB@B= :G : LRLM>F :=CNLM LPB?MERMH L BG MA> >GOBKHGF>GM HK BL BM K:MA>K LMB\ 0A> O:KB:;E>L MA:M :

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    K>:=B:M>ER :K> MA> IK>?>K:;E> HG>L :L MA>R :K> >:LB>K MH A:G=E> +G MA>L>:K ;>LM >E>F>GML MH NL> :L BGM>KO>GMBHG IHBGML HK BG=BL H? BG?HKF:MBHG :K> G>>=>= BFI: 0A> G>QM L>%) :G= 0) MH@>MA>K

    :8-49492 ?30 491:=8,?4:9 :1 ! ,9/ (!

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

    3 12 0.52.5

    2

    3

    5

    DP

    AS

    0

    A Variables atthe same spot:

    = 2, 3= 4, 5= 6, 9= 8, 10

    A

    B

    C

    D

    1.5 0

    1

    1

    4

    B

    C

    7

    D

    braking-active

    lively-

    active

    lively-buffering

    braking-buffering

    "B@NK> %=>:E O:KB:;E> :K>: H? T@NK> LIEBM BGMH MA> ?HEEHPBG@ ?HNK LJN:K>L :G=MA>K>?HK> ;:LB< KHE>L

    =,6492,.?4A0 A,=4,-70 0A>L> O:KB:;E>L A:O> : AB@A / :G= ,O:EN> :G=

    :K> LBMN:M>= BG MA> MHI E>?M K 0A>L> O:KB:;E>L A:O> : AB@A BFI:K EHG@ I:MAL HK LEHP LIK>:=L PBMABG MA> LRLM>F 0A>R :K> ;>LM B? MA>LRLM>F LAHNE= NG=>K@H : LEHP ;NM K:MA>K LN;LM:GMB:E

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    4A07D,.?4A0 A,=4,-70 $:OBG@ : AB@A / :G= : EHP ,O:EN> F:D>L MA>F MA>B=>:E BGM>KO>GMBHG IHBGML PBMABG : LRLM>F :L L BFIE>F>GM>=K:MA>K ?:LM 0A>R :K> LBMN:M>= MHP:K=L MA> MHI KB@AM K %? MA>K>BL BFF>=B:M> G>>= ?HK :L> :K> MA> IHBGML H? BGM>KO>GMBHG %G :

    PA>G MA>K> :K> EBJNB=BMR IKH;E>FL

    4A07D-@J0=492 A,=4,-70 0A>L> >E>F>GML A:O> : EHP / :G= ,O:EN> :G=:K> IHLBMBHG>= G>:K MA> ;HMMHF KB@AM :K>: ,NMMBG@ MA> >G>K@R BGMH MA>L>O:KB:;E>L =H>L GHM FN LRLM>F :L MA>BK BFI: E:LM @HKR H? >E>F>GML :K> BG MA> =BK> ;HMMHF E>?M LIHM 0A>L> O:KB:;E>L A:O> K:MA>K EHP BFI: LAHKM :G= EHG@ M>KF :G= :K> MA>K>?HK> :ELH GHM O>KR BGM>K>LMBG@ :LBGM>KO>GMBHG IHBGML

    0ABL :G:ERLBL BL : MHHE MH O:EN> MA> KHE> H? >E>F>GML BG ?HKF H? BFI: MHP:K=L : LRLM>F >E>F>GML :M LIHM =FH FHLM :IIKHIKB:M> BGM>KO>GMBHG IHBGML MH MA> LRLM>F

    /BFBE:K MA> :G:ERL>L H? MA> KHE> H? O:KB:;E>L :L BG=B LRLM>F L %=>:E :MMKB;NM>L ?HKBG=B : AB@A ,/O:EN> :G= : EHP .O:EN> AB@A ,/O:EN> F>:GLMA:M :G >E>F>GM BL :\>= FHK> BGM>GL>ER B? L HF EHP .O:EN> F>:GL MA:M :G >E>F>GM K>:=B:M>ER B? L A:II>G

    0A> O:EN>L :K> :@:BG M:D>G ?KHF M:;E> I K>LI M:;E> I 0A>K>LNEMBG@ KHE>L H? MA> >E>F>GML :K> @BO>G BG MA> LN;L>JN>GM T@NK> %G HK=>KMA:M MA> T@NK> K>:= :L MA> IK>OBHNL BG MA> L>GL> MA:M MA> FHLM BGM>K>LMBG@?: LBMN:M>= BG MA> MHI KB@AM K MA> :QBL H? . A:L ;>>G MNKG>=

    3 12 0.52.5

    2

    3

    5

    RD

    PS

    0

    A

    Variables atthe same spot:

    = 5, 10A

    1.5 0

    1

    9

    4 7

    6 1

    23

    4

    6

    8

    accelerative-reactive

    lively-reactive

    lively-buffering

    accelerative-buffering

    "B@NK> %=>:E BG=BL G:F>= :L ?HEEHPL

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    ..070=,?4A0=0,.?4A0 A,=4,-70 0A>L> >E>F>GML :K> EH= G>:K MA> MHI E>?MK :G= A:O> : AB@A ,/ :G= .O:EN> !O>G MAHN@A MA>R BG=B MA>FHH= H? MA> LRLM>F K:MA>K LMKHG@ER MA>R :K> LEHP BG K>:L> ?: IHLBMBHG>= MH MA> MHI KB@AM LIHML MA>R A:O> : AB@A ,/ :G= EHP .O:EN> MA>R A:O> MA> I>K?>:K BGM>GL>ER PBMA : LAHKM K>: HGL BG MA> LRLM>F

    4A07D-@J0=492 & A,=4,-70 0A>L> O:KB:;E>L A:O> EHP ,/ :L P>EE :L EHP.O:EN>L :G= :K> LBMN:M>= BG MA> ;HMMHF KB@AM :K>: !O>G MAHN@A MA>RK>:R A:O> : FH=>K:M> >\> LRLM>F

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