Hungary - Chart Pack of Developments - Aug 2010

8/8/2019 Hungary - Chart Pack of Developments - Aug 2010

1/48

The central bank of Hungary

Chart-pack on recent economic and financial marketdevelopments

23 August 2010

As of the 30th of June, 2005 the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) publishes acomprehensive chart-pack about the latest information in financial markets and the macro-economy. Our aim is to provide analysts and the public with a frequently updated, easy-to-use,clear-cut data set, in order to promote better knowledge and understanding of the current

economic and financial market situation. The updated chart-pack is published on the day of eachrate-setting meeting at 5 pm.

Questions and comments are welcome, and should be addressed to [email protected].

The data sources of this document, in whole or in part, do not fall within the scope of ActXLVI of 1993 on statistics, therefore the data contained in the tables and charts are not to beconsidered as official statistical data. Magyar Nemzeti Bank excludes all liability for any damagecaused by the usage of the herein published non-official statistical data.


2/48

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 19 August 2010

Notes: reverse scale, hourly observations.

2. EUR/HUF exchange rate (last 1 month)

1. EUR/HUF exchange rate

Notes: reverse scale, daily data.

Source: Thomson Reuters.


140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

1

Jan.

2007

12Feb.

26Mar.

7May

18June

30July

10Sep.

22Oct.

3Dec.

14

Jan.

2008

25Feb.

7Apr.

19May

30June

11Aug.

22Sep.

3Nov.

15Dec.

26

Jan.

2009

9Mar.

20Apr.

1June

13July

24Aug.

5Oct.

16Nov.

28Dec.

8Feb.

2010

22Mar.

3May

14June

26July

HUFHUF

EUR/HUF CHF/HUF USD/HUF

200

204

208

212

216

220

224

228

274

277

280

283

286

289

292

295

20July2010

21July

21July

23July

26July

27July

30July

2Aug.

3Aug.

3Aug.

4Aug.

5Aug.

6Aug.

9Aug.

10Aug.

11Aug.

12Aug.

13Aug.

16Aug.

17Aug.

17Aug.

18Aug.

HUFHUF

EUR/HUF (left-hand scale) CHF/HUF USD/HUF

1


3/48


Notes: cumulative change, 5-minute frequency. Positive values mean appreciation.

4. Emerging markets exchange rates (last 1 month)

3. Emerging markets exchange rates

Notes: 2 January 2008 = 0; cumulative change. Positive values mean appreciation.



-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

2

Jan.

2008

23Jan.

13Feb.

5Mar.

26Mar.

16Apr.

7May

28May

18June

9July

30July

20Aug.

10Sep.

1Oct.

22Oct.

12Nov.

3Dec.

24Dec.

14

Jan.

2009

4Feb.

25Feb.

18Mar.

8Apr.

29Apr.

20May

10June

1July

22July

12Aug.

2Sep.

23Sep.

14Oct.

4Nov.

25Nov.

16Dec.

6

Jan.

2010

27Jan.

17Feb.

10Mar.

31Mar.

21Apr.

12May

2June

23June

14July

4Aug.

%%

EUR/HUF EUR/PLN EUR/CZK EUR/RON

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

21July2010

22July

26July

28July

2Aug.

3Aug.

5Aug.

9Aug.

10Aug.

12Aug.

16Aug.

17Aug.

19Aug.

%%

EUR/HUF EUR/PLN EUR/CZK EUR/RON

2


4/48


Notes: cumulative change, 5-minute frequency. Positive values mean HUF appreciation.

6. HUF vis--vis emerging market exchange rates (last 1 month)

5. HUF vis--vis emerging market exchange rates

Notes: 2 January 2008 = 0; cumulative change. Positive values mean HUF appreciation.



-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2

Jan.

2008

23Jan.

13Feb.

5Mar.

26Mar.

16Apr.

7May

28May

18June

9July

30July

20Aug.

10Sep.

1Oct.

22Oct.

12Nov.

3Dec.

24Dec.

14

Jan.

2009

4Feb.

25Feb.

18Mar.

8Apr.

29Apr.

20May

10June

1July

22July

12Aug.

2Sep.

23Sep.

14Oct.

4Nov.

25Nov.

16Dec.

6

Jan.

2010

27Jan.

17Feb.

10Mar.

31Mar.

21Apr.

12May

2June

23June

14July

4Aug.

%%

CZK PLN RON ZAR TRY

-4

-2

0

2

4

-4

-2

0

2

4

21July2010

22July

26July

28July

2Aug.

3Aug.

5Aug.

9Aug.

10Aug.

12Aug.

16Aug.

17Aug.

19Aug.

%%

CZK PLN RON ZAR TRY

3


5/48


Notes: based on option quotes for 1-month 25D risk reversal; skewness=RR/Volatility*10. Risk reversal can be regarded as a "nominal" indicator for the skewness of the

distribution of exchange rate expectations, while skewness eliminates the effect of changes in volatility.

8. Risk reversal and skewness of exchange rate expectations

7. Implied and historical volatilities of the forint-euro exchange rate

Notes: GARCH is weighted volatility calculated using historical data; implied volatility (based on foreign exchange option quotes) can be interpreted as an indicator of risk

perceived by the market.

Source: Bloomberg.

Source: Bloomberg.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

5

Jan.

2009

2Feb.

2Mar.

31Mar.

29Apr.

29May

29June

27July

24Aug.

21Sep.

19Oct.

16Nov.

14Dec.

11

Jan.

2010

8Feb.

8Mar.

5Apr.

3May

31May

28June

26July

%%

1 week (implied) 12 month (implied) backward-looking (GARCH) volatility (right-hand scale)

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

2

4

6

8

10

2Jan.

2008

13Feb.

26Mar.

7May

18June

30July

10Sep.

22Oct.

3Dec.

15Jan.

2009

26Feb.

9Apr.

21May

2July

13Aug.

24Sep.

5Nov.

17Dec.

28Jan.

2010

11Mar.

22Apr.

3June

15July

%

risk reversal skewness (right-hand scale)

4


6/48


Notes: implied forint yields based on USDHUF FX-swap quotes provided by Thomson Reuters; interbank yields are estimated via spline method based on BUBOR, FRA,

IRS data.

10. Difference between interbank yields and implied yields based on FX-swap markets

9. Implied HUF yields based on FX-swap market trades and quotes

Notes: implied forint yields based on USDHUF FX-swap trades in the case of O/N maturity, and based on USDHUF FX-swap quotes provided by Thomson Reuters in the

cases of 3-month and 6-month maturities.

Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters.

Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2

Jan.

2008

30Jan.

27Feb.

27Mar.

24Apr.

26May

23June

21July

18Aug.

15Sep.

15Oct.

13Nov.

11Dec.

14

Jan.

2009

11Feb.

11Mar.

8Apr.

7May

4June

2July

30July

27Aug.

24Sep.

22Oct.

19Nov.

17Dec.

14

Jan.

2010

11Feb.

11Mar.

8Apr.

6May

3June

1July

29July

%%

Interest rate corridor 6 month O/N

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

5Jan.

2009

2Feb.

2Mar.

30Mar.

28Apr.

26May

23June

21July

18Aug.

15Sep.

13Oct.

10Nov.

8Dec.

6Jan.

2010

3Feb.

3Mar.

31Mar.

28Apr.

26May

23June

21July

basis pointsbasis points

3 months 6 months

5


7/48


11. Implied 3 month forward interest rate curves (based

on government securities yields)

12. Implied 3 month forward interest rate curve (based

on interbank yields)

13. Spread between 3-month forward yields in EUR and

HUF

14. The difference between the quoted rate of the 3

month FRA and the current base rate

Source: MNB, KK. Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters.

estimated by the ECB using the Svensson-technique, based on AAA-rated euro area

central government bonds.

Notes: based on FRA quotes provided by Tulett & Tokio Liberty on Reuters. Columns

represent the difference between the quoted rate of the 3 month forward rate agreement

starting from the given date and the base rate.

Notes : est imated by the MNB using the Svensson-technique. Notes : est imated by the MNB from interbank money market (FRA) and interest rate

swap quotes using the spline technique.

Source:KK, ECB, MNB. Source: Thomson Reuters.

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

7,0

7,5

8,0

8,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

7,0

7,5

8,0

8,5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

%%

years later

20 July 2010 12 August 2010 19 August 2010

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

7,0

7,5

8,0

8,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

7,0

7,5

8,0

8,5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

%%

years later


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

%%

v

EUR (17 Aug. 2010)

HUF (17 Aug. 2010)

EUR (16 July 2010)

HUF (16 July 2010)

Forward differential (17 Aug. 2010)

Forward differential (16 July 2010)

-25

0

25

50

75

-25

0

25

50

75

1 month 2 months 3 months



6


8/48


Notes: O/N interbank yield is the calculated average yield weighted by turnover data, FRA yield is the close mid-quote provided by Thomson Reuters.

Notes: estimated by the MNB from interbank interest rates using the spline-technique. Notes: estimated by the MNB using the Svensson-technique.

15. Policy rate expectations derived from money market

rates

16. Policy rate expectations derived from government

bond yields

17. MNB base rate and money market rates

Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters.

Source: MNB, KK, Thomson Reuters.

4,50

5,00

5,50

6,00

6,50

7,00

7,50

4,50

5,00

5,50

6,00

6,50

7,00

7,50

4Jan.2

010

29M

ar.

21June

13S

ep.

6D

ec.

28Feb.2

011

23M

ay

15A

ug.

7N

ov.

%%


4,50

5,00

5,50

6,00

6,50

7,00

7,50

4,50

5,00

5,50

6,00

6,50

7,00

7,50

4Jan.2

010

29M

ar.

21June

13S

ep.

6D

ec.

28Feb.2

011

23M

ay

15A

ug.

7N

ov.

%%


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2Jan.

2008

22Jan.

11Feb.

2Mar.

22Mar.

11Apr.

1May

21May

10June

30June

20July

9Aug.

29Aug.

18Sep.

8Oct.

28Oct.

17Nov.

7Dec.

27Dec.

16Jan.

2009

5Feb.

25Feb.

17Mar.

6Apr.

26Apr.

16May

5June

25June

15July

4Aug.

24Aug.

13Sep.

3Oct.

23Oct.

12Nov.

2Dec.

22Dec.

11Jan.

2010

31Jan.

2010

20Feb.

12Mar.

1Apr.

21Apr.

11May

31May

20June

10July

30July

%%

O/N interbank 2 week central bank deposit 3 month BUBOR

1x4 FRA O/N central bank deposit O/N central bank loan

7


9/48


18. Short-term interbank yields

19. Short-term government securities - interbank yield

spreads

20. Long-term interbank yields

21. Long-term government security - interbank yield

spreads

Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Source: KK, Thomson Reuters.

Notes: swap yields are estimated via spline method based on FRA, IRS data. Notes: the bond yields are estimated via Svensson-, swap yields via spline method.

Notes: swap yields are estimated via spline method based on BUBOR, FRA, IRS data. Notes: the bond yields are estimated via Svensson-, swap yields via spline method.

Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Source: KK, Thomson Reuters.

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

7,0

7,5

8,0

8,59,0

9,5

10,0

10,5

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

7,0

7,5

8,0

8,59,0

9,5

10,0

10,5

5Jan

.2009

2Mar.

2

8Apr.

25June

24Aug.

1

9Oct.

15Dec.

9Feb

.2010

7Apr.

3June

29July

basis pointbasis point

3 month 1 year

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

5Jan

.2009

2Mar.

2

8Apr.

25June

24Aug.

1

9Oct.

15Dec.

9Feb

.2010

7Apr.

3June

29July


3 month 1 year

5,5

6,0

6,5

7,0

7,5

8,0

8,5

9,0

9,5

10,0

10,5

5,5

6,0

6,5

7,0

7,5

8,0

8,5

9,0

9,5

10,0

10,5

5Jan.2

009

2Mar.

28Apr.

25June

24Aug.

19Oct.

15Dec.

9Feb.2

010

7Apr.

3June

29July


5 year 10 year

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

5Jan.2

009

2Mar.

28Apr.

25June

24Aug.

19Oct.

15Dec.

9Feb.2

010

7Apr.

3June

29July


5 year 10 year

8


10/48


Notes: intraday 15-minute frequency data.

Notes: dai ly reference yields provided by Government Debt Agency. Notes: dai ly reference yields provided by Government Debt Agency.

22. Short-term yields of benchmark government securities 23. Long-term yields of benchmark government securities

24. Yields of benchmark government securities

Source:KK. Source: KK.

Source: Thomson Reuters, FTSE.

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

5Jan.2

009

2F

eb.

2M

ar.

30M

ar.

28A

pr.

27M

ay

25June

23July

24A

ug.

21S

ep.

19O

ct.

17N

ov.

16D

ec.

18Jan.

15Feb.2

010

16M

ar.

14A

pr.

12M

ay

10June

8July

5A

ug.

%%

3M 6M 12M

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

5Jan.2

009

2F

eb.

2M

ar.

30M

ar.

28A

pr.

27M

ay

25June

23July

24A

ug.

21S

ep.

19O

ct.

17N

ov.

16D

ec.

18Jan.

15Feb.2

010

16M

ar.

14A

pr.

12M

ay

10June

8July

5A

ug.

%%

3Y 5Y 10Y 15Y

5,005,25

5,50

5,75

6,00

6,25

6,50

6,75

7,00

7,25

5,005,25

5,50

5,75

6,00

6,25

6,50

6,75

7,00

7,25

4Aug8.4

0

4Aug11.5

8

5Aug9.0

5

5Aug13.0

0

5Aug16.2

4

6Aug11.0

2

9Aug9.0

9

9Aug13.0

2

9Aug17.4

0

10Aug11.0

2

11Aug13.0

9

12Aug10.5

8

12Aug13.5

8

12Aug17.0

7

13Aug10.5

8

13Aug13.5

4

13Aug17.0

6

16Aug14.0

6

17Aug18.0

9

18Aug11.0

3

19Aug10.4

0

%%

3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 15Y

9


11/48

Financial Markets 19 August 2010

25. Spot turnover on the forint currency market 26. Swap turnover on the forint currency market

27. Forward turnover on the forint currency market 28. Option turnover on the forint currency market

Source: MNB. Source: MNB.

Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages

calculated based on deal date data.








0

100

200

300

400

0

100

200

300

400

5Ja

n.2

009

2Mar.

27Apr.

24June

19Aug.

15Oct.

14Dec.

10Fe

b.2

010

9Apr.

7June

2Aug.

HUF bnHUF bn

5-day MA 25-day MA

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700800

900

1000

1100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700800

900

1000

1100

5Ja

n.2

009

2Mar.

27Apr.

24June

19Aug.

15Oct.

14Dec.

10Fe

b.2

010

9Apr.

7June

2Aug.

HUF bnHUF bn

5-day MA 25-day MA

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

5Jan.2

009

2Mar.

27Apr.

24June

19Aug.

15Oct.

14Dec.

10Feb.2

010

9Apr.

7June

2Aug.

HUF bnHUF bn

5-day MA 25-day MA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

5Jan.2

009

2Mar.

27Apr.

24June

19Aug.

15Oct.

14Dec.

10Feb.2

010

9Apr.

7June

2Aug.

HUF bnHUF bn

5-day MA 25-day MA

10


12/48


Notes: due to the nature of the banks' daily report on FX transactions, the components of the FX transactions statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the

data series on net forint purchase of non-resident investors - and its components - is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations.

An increase in the swap stock stands for swaps with a long forint spot leg. Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions.Calculated from swap transactions between credit institutions

and non-resident investors. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions might lead to significant

subsequent modifications of the data series.

Notes: based on FRA quotes provided by Tulett & Tokio Liberty on Reuters. Notes: Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions. Due to the nature of the banks'

daily report on FX transactions, the components of the statistic do not close to zero. As a

result, the information contained in the data series is relevant mainly to evaluate the

direction of short-term fluctuations. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the

accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions

might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series.

29. Net FRA position of non-residents and FRA-base rate

spreads

30. Net Forint forward stock of residents and the

exchange rate

31. Forint FX Swap stock of non-residents

Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Source: MNB.

Source: MNB.

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400500

600

700

800

900

-200

-160

-120

-80

-40

0

4080

120

160

200

5

Jan.

2009

3Feb.

6Mar.

3Apr.

4May

3June

2July

31July

9Sep.

20Oct.

24Nov.

24Dec.

26

Jan.

2010

25Feb.

31Mar.

30Apr.

1June

1July

29July

HUF bnbasis points

Base rate - 1x4 FRA yield differential

Base rate - 3x6 FRA yield differential

net FRA position of foreigners (right-hand scale)

255

265

275

285

295

305

315

325

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

5Jan

.2009

2Feb.

2Mar.

28Mar.

27Apr.

26May

24June

2

2July

19Aug.

1

7Sep.

15Oct.

13

Nov.

14Dec.

13Jan

.2010

10Feb.

10Mar.

9Apr.

7May

7June

5July

2Aug.

EUR/HUFHUF bn

net forward stock of residents

exchange rate (right-hand scale, inverted scale)

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7Jan.

2009

21Jan.

4Feb.

18Feb.

4Mar.

18Mar.

1Apr.

15Apr.

29Apr.

13May

27May

10June

24June

8July

22July

5Aug.

19Aug.

2Sep.

16Sep.

30Sep.

14Oct.

28Oct.

11Nov.

25Nov.

9Dec.

23Dec.

6Jan.

2010

20Jan.

3Feb.

17Feb.

3Mar.

17Mar.

31Mar.

14Apr.

28Apr.

12May

26May

9June

23June

7July

21July

4Aug.

18Aug.

HUF billionsHUF billions

HUF/FX - max 1W HUF/FX - 1W-3M HUF/FX - 3M-1Y HUF/FX - min 1Y FX/HUF - max 1W FX/HUF -1W-3M FX/HUF - 3M-1Y FX/HUF -min 1Y

11


13/48


Notes: 2 January 2008 = 0; cumulative change. Equity data are not comprehensive, it contains data for large- and mid-cap stocks quoted on the Budapest Stock Exchange.

33. Forint financial assets held by non-residents

32. Forint FX Swap stock of non-residents

Notes: due to the nature of the banks' daily report on FX transactions, the components of the FX transactions statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information

contained in the data series on net forint purchase of non-resident investors - and its components - is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations.

An increase in the swap stock stands for swaps with a long forint spot leg. Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions.Calculated from swap transactions between

credit institutions and non-resident investors. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard

transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series.

Source: MNB.

Source: MNB, TeleDataCast.

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

5

Jan.

2009

11Feb.

20Mar.

28Apr.

4June

13July

19Aug.

25Sep.

3Nov.

10Dec.

18

Jan.

2010

24Feb.

2Apr.

11May

17June

26July


total net FX swap stock of foreigners cumulated HUF purchase of foreigners

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

2Jan.

2008

13Feb.

27Mar.

13May

24June

5Aug.

17Sep.

31Oct.

12Dec.

29Jan.

2009

12Mar.

24Apr.

9June

21July

3Sep.

15Oct.

27Nov.

8Jan.

2010

19Feb.

6Apr.

18May

30June

11Aug.


government securities central bank (two-week) bills equity

12


14/48


Notes: monthly change. The last month contains information on available data.

35. Government securities held by non-residents

34. Government securities of non-residents by tenor

Notes: 1 January 2010 = 0; cumulative change without central bank bills.

Source: MNB.

Source: MNB.

-250-200-150-100-50050100150

200250300350400

-250-200-150-100-50

050

100150

200250300350400

1Jan.

2010

15Jan.

29Jan.

12Feb.

26Feb.

12Mar.

29Mar.

13Apr.

27Apr.

11May

26May

9June

23June

7July

21July

4Aug.

18Aug.


total amount maturing until 31/12/2011 maturing between 1/1/2012 and 31/12/2014

maturing after 01/01/2015 auctions, redemptions

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan.

2009

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Jan.

2010

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.


T-Bill/MNB-Bill redemption T-Bond redemption T-Bill/MNB-Bill auction T-Bond auction secondary market total

13


15/48


36. Government securities held by non-residents and the

proportion to the total amount outstanding.

37. Government securities held by non-residents and the

proportion to the total amount outstanding

38. The average time to maturity of residents' and non-

residents' government security portfolio

39. The relative average time to maturity of residents'

and non-residents' government security portfolio


Notes: MNB calculations without T-Bills and central bank (two-week) bills. Notes: MNB calculations; without T-Bills and central bank (two week) bills.

Notes: MNB calculations without central bank bills. Notes: MNB calculations without central bank bills.


2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

3500

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jan.2

006

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.2

007

Mar.

MayJuly

Oct.

Dec.

Feb.2

008

Apr.

June

Aug.

Oct.

Dec.

Feb.2

009

Apr.

July

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.2

010

Mar.

MayJuly

HUF bn%

stock (right-hand scale) percentage of total amount outstanding

2100

2150

2200

2250

2300

2350

2400

2450

2500

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

4Jan.

2010

13Jan.

25Jan.

4Feb.

16Feb.

26Feb.

10Mar.

23Mar.

2Apr.

15Apr.

27Apr.

7May

19May

1June

11June

23June

5July

15July

27July

6Aug.

18Aug.

HUF bn%

stock (right-hand scale)

percentage of total amount outstanding (left-hand scale)

3,8

4,0

4,2

4,4

4,6

4,8

5,0

3,8

4,0

4,2

4,4

4,6

4,8

5,0

5Jan.2

009

16Feb.

28Mar.

12May

24June

5Aug.

17Sep.

30Oct.

11Dec.

21Jan.

2010

4Mar.

19Apr.

1June

13July

yearyear

total non-residents residents

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

5Jan.2

009

16Feb.

28Mar.

12May

24June

5Aug.

17Sep.

30Oct.

11Dec.

21Jan.

2010

4Mar.

19Apr.

1June

13July

monthmonth

non-residents residents

14


16/48


41. Government securities issues, buybacks, redemptions

40. The turnover and yield data of the Hungarian primary t-bill and t-bond issues

Notes: the turnover and yield data of the Hungarian primary t-bill and t-bond issues. In case of floating rate bonds the yield data are not be plotted.

Source: KK.

Source: KK.

5

5,5

6

6,5

7

7,5

8

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

%HUF billions

Announced (billion HUF) Total b id (billion HUF) Accepted (billion HUF) Max yield (% - rhs) Avg yield (% - rhs) Min yield (% - rhs)

3 month T-bill 12 month T-bill 3 ear T-bond 5 ear T-bond 10 ear T-bond

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1Jan.

2009

15Jan.

29Jan.

12Feb.

26Feb.

12Mar.

26Mar.

9Apr.

23Apr.

7May

21May

31May

10June

22June

2July

12July

22July

1Aug.

11Aug.

21Aug.

31Aug.

10Sep.

20Sep.

30Sep.

10Oct.

20Oct.

30Oct.

9Nov.

19Nov.

29Nov.

9Dec.

19Dec.

29Dec.

8Jan.

2010

18Jan.

28Jan.

7Feb.

17Feb.

27Feb.

9Mar.

19Mar.

29Mar.

8Apr.

18Apr.

28Apr.

8May

18May

28May

7June

17June

27June

7July

17July

27July

6Aug.

16Aug.


Bonds bought back Bonds matured Net T-bill issuance Bonds issued Net change

15


17/48


Notes: 10-day moving averages.

Notes: deal dates, based on reporting by domestic banks; central moving averages. Notes: deal dates, based on reporting by domestic banks; central moving averages.

42. Turnover on the forint unsecured interbank market 43. Turnover on the forint FRA market

44. Turnover on the secondary market of government securities


Source: KELER

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

6Jan.20

09

4Feb.

5M

ar.

3Apr.

4M

ay

2Ju

ne

1July

30July

28Aug.

28Sep.

27O

ct.

25Nov.

24Dec.

22Jan.20

10

22Feb.

23M

ar.

21Apr.

20M

ay

18Ju

ne

19July

17Aug.

HUF bnHUF bn

5-day moving averages 25-day moving averages

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

6Feb.20

09

9M

ar.

7Apr.

6M

ay

4Ju

ne

3July

3Aug.

1Sep.

30Sep.

29O

ct.

27Nov.

28Dec.

26Jan.20

10

24Feb.

25M

ar.

23Apr.

24M

ay

22Ju

ne

21July

HUF bnHUF bn

5-day moving averages 25-day moving averages

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

6Jan.

2009

28Jan.

19Feb.

16Mar.

7Apr.

30Apr.

25May

17June

9July

31July

26Aug.

16Sep.

8Oct.

2Nov.

24Nov.

16Dec.

11Jan.

2010

2Feb.

24Feb.

19Mar.

12Apr.

5May

28May

21June

13July

4Aug.


less than 1 year 1 to 3 years 3 to 5 years more than 5 years

16


18/48

International and Regional Environment 19 August 2010

Notes: derived from Fed funds futures contracts.

46. Fed policy rate expectations

45. ECB policy rate expectations

Notes: estimated by the ECB using the Svensson-technique, based on AAA-rated euro area central government bonds.

Source: ECB.


0,00

0,25

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

0,00

0,25

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

5Jan.

2010

2Mar.

27Apr.

22June

17Aug.

12Oct.

7Dec.

1F

eb.

2011

29Mar.

24May

19July

13Sep.

8Nov.

%%


0,00

0,25

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

0,00

0,25

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1Jan.

2010

2Mar.

1May.

30June

29Aug.

28Oct.

27Dec.

25Feb.

2011

26Apr.

25June

24Aug.

23Oct.

22Dec.

%%


17


19/48


48. 3 month interbank and treasury yield spreads

47. Policy rates of the ECB, Fed, Swiss National Bank and the 3-month money market interest rates.



0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

1

Jan.

2009

5Feb.

12Mar.

16Apr.

21May

25June

30July

3Sep.

8Oct.

12Nov.

17Dec.

21

Jan.

2010

25Feb.

1Apr.

6May

10June

15July

%%

ECB EUR yield SNB CHF yield Fed funds target rate USD yield

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

2Jan.

2009

6Feb.

13Mar.

17Apr.

22May

26June

31July

4Sep.

9Oct.

13Nov.

18Dec.

22Jan.

2010

26Feb.

2Apr.

7May

11June

16July


euro dollar

18


20/48


Notes: based on benchmark yield data provided by Thomson Reuters.

50. Long-term EUR and USD benchmark yields

49. 3 month LIBOR - OIS spreads



0

50

100

150

200

0

50

100

150

200

1

Jan.

2009

5Feb.

12Mar.

16Apr.

21May

25June

30July

3Sep.

8Oct.

12Nov.

17Dec.

21

Jan.

2010

25Feb.

1Apr.

6May

10June

15July


EUR USD GBP

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

1Jan.

2008

12Feb.

25Mar.

6May

17June

29July

9Sep.

21Oct.

2Dec.

13Jan.

2009

24Feb.

7Apr.

19May

30June

11Aug.

22Sep.

3Nov.

15Dec.

26Jan.

2010

9Mar.

20Apr.

1June

13July

%%

10-year EUR 10-year USD

19


21/48


Notes: Brent crude oil and gold buillon: nominal values, *Standard&Poor's Goldman Sachs Commodity index: 1 January 2009=100.

52. Commodity benchmarks

51. Major currencies versus the dollar

Notes: 1 January 2008 = 0; cumulative change. Positive values indicate USD appreciation.



-20

-10

0

10

20

-20

-10

0

10

20

1

Jan.

2009

29Jan.

26Feb.

26Mar.

23Apr.

21May

18June

16July

13Aug.

10Sep.

8Oct.

5Nov.

3Dec.

31Dec.

28

Jan.

2010

25Feb.

25Mar.

22Apr.

20May

17June

15July

12Aug.

%%

USD/EUR USD/GBP USD/CHF USD/JPY

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1Jan.

2009

29Jan.

26Feb.

26Mar.

23Apr.

21May

18June

16July

13Aug.

10Sep.

8Oct.

5Nov.

3Dec.

31Dec.

28Jan.

2010

25Feb.

25Mar.

22Apr.

20May

17June

15July

12Aug.

USD/ounceUSD/barrel; index

values

Brent crude oil (USD/barrel) S&P GSCI main index*

S&P GSCI agricultural and livestock index* Gold bullion (USD/troy ounce, right-hand scale)

20


22/48


Notes: 1 January 2008 = 0; cumulative change.

54. Emerging market stock indices

53. Developed market stock indices

Notes: 1 January 2008 = 0; cumulative change.



-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

1

Jan.

2008

29Jan.

26Feb.

25Mar.

22Apr.

20May

17June

15July

12Aug.

9Sep.

7Oct.

4Nov.

2Dec.

30Dec.

27

Jan.

2009

24Feb.

24Mar.

21Apr.

19May

16June

14July

11Aug.

8Sep.

6Oct.

3Nov.

1Dec.

29Dec.

26

Jan.

2010

23Feb.

23Mar.

20Apr.

18May

15June

13July

10Aug.

%%

DJ STOXX S&P 500 FTSE 100 NIKKEI 225

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

1Jan.

2008

29Jan.

26Feb.

25Mar.

22Apr.

20May

17June

15July

12Aug.

9Sep.

7Oct.

4Nov.

2Dec.

30Dec.

27Jan.

2009

24Feb.

24Mar.

21Apr.

19May

16June

14July

11Aug.

8Sep.

6Oct.

3Nov.

1Dec.

29Dec.

26Jan.

2010

23Feb.

23Mar.

20Apr.

18May

15June

13July

10Aug.

%%

BUX (Hungary) PX50 (Czech Rep.) WIG20 (Poland) RTS (Russia) Shanghai Composite

21


23/48


Notes: iTraxx Europe index is composed of the most liquid 125 CDS referencing European investment grade names. iTraxx HiVol is a subset of the main index consisting of

the 30 most risky constituents. Crossover index comprises the 45 most liquid sub-investment grade entities. CDX North American Investment Grade index consists of 125

names, CDX North American High Yield index comprises 100 names.

56. Key CDS composite indices

55. Major risk aversion indicators

Notes: increases indicate declining risk appetite or increasing risk aversion. VIX is the implied volatility of S&P500 index.

Source: Thomson Reuters; JP Morgan.


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1

Jan.

2009

29Jan.

26Feb.

26Mar.

23Apr.

21May

18June

16July

13Aug.

10Sep.

8Oct.

5Nov.

3Dec.

31Dec.

28

Jan.

2010

25Feb.

25Mar.

22Apr.

20May

17June

15July

12Aug.

basis points%

VIX index EUR/USD 1 month implied volatility EMBI Global (right-hand scale)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1Jan.

2009

29Jan.

26Feb.

26Mar.

23Apr.

21May

18June

16July

13Aug.

10Sep.

8Oct.

6Nov.

4Dec.

1Jan.

2010

29Jan.

26Feb.

26Mar.

23Apr.

21May

18June

16July

13Aug.


iTraxx Europe iTraxx Europe HiVol CDX investment grade

iTraxx Crossover CDX high yield (right-hand scale)

22


24/48


57. 5 year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging markets 58. 5 year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging markets

59. 5 year sovereign CDS spreads in selected countries 60. 5 year sovereign CDS spreads in selected countries

Source: Thomson Reuters. Source: Thomson Reuters.

Notes: CEEMEA is a composite index calculated from the 15 most liquid sovereign CDS-

speads in the CEEMEA region.

Notes: CEEMEA is a composite index calculated from the 15 most liquid sovereign CDS-

speads in the CEEMEA region.


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2June2008

14July

25Aug.

6Oct.

17Nov.

29Dec.

9Feb.2

009

23Mar.

4May

15June

27July

7Sep.

19Oct.

30Nov.

11Jan.

2010

22Feb.

5Apr.

17May

28June

9Aug.


Hungary Romania

Bulgaria Croatia

CEEMEA SovX

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

23Apr.

5May

17May

27May

8June

18June

30June

12July

22July

3Aug.

13Aug.


Hungary Romania

Bulgaria Croatia

CEEMEA SovX

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2June2008

14July

25Aug.

6Oct.

17Nov.

29Dec.

9Feb.2

009

23Mar.

4May

15June

27July

7Sep.

19Oct.

30Nov.

11Jan.

2010

22Feb.

5Apr.

17May

28June

9Aug.


Poland Czech Republic

Russia Turkey

Estonia

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

50

100

150

200

250

23Apr.

5May

17May

27May

8June

18June

30June

12July

22July

3Aug.

13Aug.


Poland Czech Republic

Russia Turkey

Estonia

23


25/48


Notes: the chart shows the profit/loss with carry cost from the last date.

62. Yields in euro calculated on CEBI indices

61. Emerging market sovereign foreign currency bond spreads

Notes: calculated from JP Morgan Euro EMBI data. The series are differences between euro denominated (liquid) foreign currency bond yields and euro zero coupon yields

of the corresponding maturities.


Source: DrKW.

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1

Jan.

2009

26Feb.

23Apr.

18June

13Aug.

8Oct.

3Dec.

28

Jan.

2010

25Mar.

20May

15July


Hungary all emerging Latin America CEE Asia

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

9Jan.

2009

6Feb.

27Mar.

30Apr.

4June

2July

2Sep.

12Oct.

10Nov.

8Dec.

15Jan.

2010

17Feb.

23Mar.

23Apr.

4June

2July

%%

Hungary Poland Czech Republic

24


26/48


Notes: 5-day moving averages.

64. 3-month interbank deposit rates in some CEE counties

63. Policy rates and 3-month interbank deposit rates in CEE countries

Notes: interbank deposit rates based on Reuters quotes.



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1Jan.

2008

31Jan.

1Mar.

31Mar.

30Apr.

30May

29June

4Aug.

3Sep.

3Oct.

12Nov.

24Dec.

4Feb.

2009

18Mar.

29Apr.

10June

22July

2Sep.

14Oct.

25Nov.

6Jan.

2010

17Feb.

31Mar.

12May

23June

4Aug.

%%

Hungary Poland Czech Republic Romania

HUF interbank depo PLN interbank depo CZK interbank depo RON interbank depo

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1Jan.

2009

19Jan.

4Feb.

20Feb.

13Mar.

6Apr.

29Apr.

21May

12June

6July

28July

19Aug.

10Sep.

2Oct.

26Oct.

17Nov.

9Dec.

31Dec.

22Jan.

2010

15Feb.

9Mar.

31Mar.

22Apr.

14May

7June

29June

21July

12Aug.

%%

Estonia Lithuania Latvia Bulgaria Ukraine (right-hand scale)

25


27/48


Notes: spreads of 5-year Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over the appropriate

German benchmark yields.

Notes: spreads of 5-year Eastern European foreign currency bond yields over the

appropriate German benchmark yields.

65. Spreads of 5-year Eastern European foreign currency

bond yields over benchmarks

66. Spreads of Eastern European foreign currency bond

yields over benchmarks

67. Benchmark yield curves of Hungary, Poland, Greece and Germany



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2Jan.

2009

13Feb.

27Mar.

8May

19June

31July

11Sep.

23Oct.

4Dec.

15Jan.

2010

26Feb.

9Apr.

21May

2July

13Aug.


Hungary (29/Jan./2014)

Poland (3/Feb./2014)

Czech Republic (23/June/2014)

Romania (8/May/2012)

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

3000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2Jan.

2009

13Feb.

27Mar.

8May

19June

31July

11Sep.

23Oct.

4Dec.

15Jan.

2010

26Feb.

9Apr.

21May

2July

13Aug.


Croatia (15/Apr./2014)

Latvia (2/Apr./2014)

Lithuania (22/June/2014)

Ukraine (13/Oct./2015 - right-hand scale)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

3m 6m 1y 2y 3y 4y 5y 6y 7y 8y 9y 10y 11y 12y 13y 14y 15y 16y 17y 18y 19y 20y 30y

%%

Hungary 22 Aug 2010 Poland 22 Aug 2010 Greece 22 Aug 2010 Germany 22 Aug 2010

Hungary 23 July 2010 Poland 23 July 2010 Greece 23 July 2010 Germany 23 July 2010

26


28/48


Notes: 3 day moving averages; based on swap rates provided by Reuters.

69. 5 year implied spreads over euro rates in 5 year's time

68. Spreads over 5 year euro spot zero coupon yields

Notes: zero-coupon yields provided by Reuters.



-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2

Jan.

2008

1Feb.

4Mar.

2Apr.

8May

10June

11July

13Aug.

15Sep.

21Oct.

20Nov.

18Dec.

15

Jan.

2009

12Feb.

12Mar.

9Apr.

7May

4June

2July

30July

27Aug.

24Sep.

22Oct.

19Nov.

17Dec.

14

Jan.

2010

11Feb.

11Mar.

8Apr.

6May

3June

1July

29July


HUF CZK PLN

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2Jan.

2008

6Feb.

12Mar.

16Apr.

21May

25June

30July

3Sep.

8Oct.

12Nov.

17Dec.

21Jan.

2009

25Feb.

1Apr.

6May

10June

15July

19Aug.

23Sep.

28Oct.

2Dec.

6Jan.

2010

10Feb.

17Mar.

21Apr.

26May

30June

4Aug.


HUF CZK PLN

27


29/48

Liquidity Position of the Banking Sector 19 August 2010

71. Recourse to central bank instruments

70. Developments in central bank balance sheet

Source: MNB.

Source: MNB.

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

25003000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

25003000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

1Jan.

2009

21Jan.

10Feb.

2Mar.

22Mar.

11Apr.

1May

21May

10June

30June

20July

9Aug.

29Aug.

18Sep.

8Oct.

28Oct.

17Nov.

7Dec.

27Dec.

16Jan.

2010

5Feb.

25Feb.

17Mar.

6Apr.

26Apr.

16May

5June

25June

15July

4Aug.


reserve balances net stock of O/N instruments central bank bill FX-swap instruments

two-week loan six-month loan total HUF liquidity

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1July2010

3July

5July

7July

9July

11July

13July

15July

17July

19July

21July

23July

25July

27July

29July

31July

2Aug.

4Aug.

6Aug.

8Aug.

10Aug.

12Aug.

14Aug.

16Aug.

18Aug.


net stock of O/N instruments FX-swap instruments six-month loan two-week loan

28


30/48

Inflation 19 August 2010

Weight 201 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10

Consumer Price Index 100,0 5,7 5,1 5,3 4,0 thereof

Unprocessed food 5,8 1,6 -9,3 -0,5 10,6

Processed food 11,5 1,6 1,4 0,8 -0,9

Manufactured goods 26,5 3,1 2,3 1,7 -0,3

Market services 22,5 4,4 4,4 4,3 2,2

Non-regulated household energy 1,9 6,9 11,3 14,8 14,0

Alcohol, tobacco 9,5 10,8 11,1 10,1 6,6

Gasoline prices 5,7 25,1 26,9 20,4 16,0

Regulated prices 16,7 6,4 8,6 9,0 7,5

Core Consumer Price Index 70,0 4,3 3,9 3,5 1,3

CPI without Tax Changes 100,0 1,5 0,9 1,1 3,3

Source: HCSO, MNB.

Notes: annual growth rates (%); The time series of industrial products, market services, regulated prices have changed because the method of the core inflation developed by

the CSO and the NBH has broken down several items (like pharmaceutical products, the telephone, the other travels, the TV fee) from 2009.

74. Decomposition of the Consumer Price Index

72. The CPI and the Core CPI 73. Developments in underlying inflation indicators

Notes: seasonally adjusted year-on-year growth rates (HCSO adjustments); The time

series of core inflation have changed due to the change in the calculation method.

Source: HCSO, MNB decomposition

Source: HCSO, MNB

Notes: The range is constructed of the median, weighted median, trimmed mean and

Edgeworth-index indicators

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan.2

003

MaySep.

Jan.2

004

MaySep.

Jan.2

005

MaySep.

Jan.2

006

MaySep.

Jan.2

007

MaySep.

Jan.2

008

MaySep.

Jan.2

009

MaySep.

Jan.2

010

May

%%

Core Consumer Price Index Consumer Price Index

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan/2002

M

ay

S

ep

Jan/2003

M

ay

S

ep

Jan/2004

M

ay

S

ep

Jan/2005

M

ay

S

ep

Jan/2006

M

ay

S

ep

Jan/2007

M

ay

S

ep

Jan/2008

M

ay

S

ep

Jan/2009

M

ay

S

ep

Jan/2010

M

ay

%%

Range of underlying inflation indicators

Core inflation excluding indirect tax changes

29


31/48


Notes: Consensus Economics Forecast (latest survey); the original forecasts refer to the WTI crude oil, and were corrected by the average difference between WTI and Brent

to derive figures for the Brent crude oil; ** Based on the latest available futures prices ***Technical assumption underlying the MNB's inflation forecast published in the

most recent Quarterly Report on Inflation.

76. The Brent crude oil price and market expectations

75. The HUF/EUR exchange rate and the analysts' expectations

Notes: inverted scale, projected band with a central exchange rate taken to be fixed at 276,1 from October 1 2001, and at 282,36 from June 4 2003. The thin continuous line

represents analysts' average exchange rate expectations according to the most recent Reuters CEE FX Poll. The bold line stands for the MNB's technical exchange rate

assumption underlying the the latest inflation forecast published in the most recent Quarterly Report on Inflation.

Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB.

Source: Bloomberg, Consensus Economics.

225

240

255

270

285

300

315

225

240

255

270

285

300

315

2

Jan.

2008

26Mar.

18June

10Sep.

3Dec.

25

Feb.

2009

20May

12Aug.

4Nov.

27

Jan.

2010

21Apr.

14July

6Oct.

29Dec.

23

Mar.

2011

15June

7Sep.

30Nov.

HUF/EURHUF/EUR

MNB technica l assumption in the la test QRI Mean of analysts ' expectations

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2Jan.

2003

8May

11Sep.

15Jan.

2004

20May

23Sep.

3Feb.

2005

14June

18Oct.

23Feb.

2006

29June

25Oct.

23Jan.

2007

23Apr.

22July

20Oct.

18Jan.

2008

17Apr.

16July

14Oct.

12Jan.

2009

12Apr.

11July

9Oct.

7Jan.

2010

7Apr.

6July

4Oct.

2Jan.

2011

2Apr.

1July

29Sep.

28Dec.

USD/barrelUSD/barrel

Historical Analysts' expectations* Futures** MNB technical assumption***

30


32/48


Notes: the fan chart represents the uncertainty around the central projection. Overall, the coloured area represents a 90 per cent probability. The central area containing the

central projection for the consumer price index illustrated by the dotted line (as the mode of distribution) refers to 30 per cent of the probability. The horizontal line shows the

value of the announced inflation target.

78. Fan chart of the inflation forecast

77. Monetary conditions

Notes: * calculated from the 1-year zero-coupon yield and analysts' corresponding 1-year forward inflation expectations derived from the Reuters-poll by the MNB. **

Monthly depreciation of the forint relative to the euro (until April 2001 the pre-announced rate of devaluation), adjusted by the corresponding Hungarian CPI and the EMU's

HICP (1 January 1997 = 100%; increase represents appreciation).

Source: Reuters, KSH, Eurostat, KK, MNB.

Source: MNB, HCSO.

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan

.2000

May

Sep.

Jan

.2001

May

Sep.

Jan

.2002

May

Sep.

Jan

.2003

May

Sep.

Jan

.2004

May

Sep.

Jan

.2005

May

Sep.

Jan

.2006

May

Sep.

Jan

.2007

May

Sep.

Jan

.2008

May

Sep.

Jan

.2009

May

Sep.

Jan

.2010

May

%%

1-year real interest rate* (left-hand scale) CPI-based real exchange rate** (right-hand scale)

-3

-2

-10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

-3

-2

-10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2007Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2008Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2009Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2010Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2011Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2012Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

%%

31


33/48


Notes: the thin continuous line represents the trimmed mean calculated by cutting off the lowest and the highest value. The flat line indicates the medium-term inflation target.

80. Analysts' expectations for the inflation rate in 2011

79. Analysts' expectations for the inflation rate in 2010

Notes: the thin continuous line represents the trimmed mean calculated by cutting off the lowest and the highest value. The flat line indicates the medium-term inflation target.



1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

May20

08

Ju

ne

July

Aug.

Sep.

O

ct.

Nov.

D

ec.

Jan.20

09

Feb.

M

ar.

A

pr.

M

ay

Ju

ne

July

Aug.

Sep.

O

ct.

Nov.

D

ec.

Jan.20

10

Feb.

M

ar.

A

pr.

M

ay

Ju

ne

July

Aug.

%%

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

Jan.2

009

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Jan.2

010

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

%%

32


34/48


81. The latest central projection of the MNB compared to other prognoses

2010 2011 2012

Consumer Price Index (annual average growth rate, %)

MNB (May 2010) 4,9 3,0 2,9

Consensus Economics (July 2010)1

4.3 - 4.7 - 5.0 2.8 - 3.0 - 3.5 -

European Commission (May 2010) 4,6 2,8 -

IMF (April 2010) 4,3 2,5 2,6OECD (May 2010) 4,5 2,3 -

Reuters survey (August 2010)1

4.5 - 4.9 - 5.2 2.8 - 3.3 - 4.6 2.9 - 3.1 - 3.5

GDP (annual growth rate, %)

MNB (May 2010)2

0,9 3,2 3,9


(-0.5) - 0.4 - 1.5 1.5 - 2.6 - 3.2 -


IMF (April 2010) -0,2 3,2 4,5

OECD (May 2010) 1,2 3,1 -


0.4 - 0.7 - 1.4 1.5 - 2.5 - 3.1 -

Current account balance (percent of GDP)

MNB (May 2010) -0,6 -0,9 -1,4

European Commission (May 2010) -0,2 -0,3 -

IMF (April 2010) -0,4 -1.0 -2,1OECD (May 2010) 0,8 -0,4 -

Budget deficit (ESA-95 method, percent of GDP)

MNB (May 2010) 4.5 (4.3)* 3.9 (3.7)* 2.9 (2.7)*


3.8 - 4.1 - 5.0 2.8 - 3.6 - 4.4 -


IMF (March 2010) 3,8 2,8 -

OECD (May 2010) 4,5 4,3 -


3.8 - 4.0 - 4.8 2.9 - 3.7 - 4.5 -

Forecasts on the size of Hungary's export markets (annual growth rate, %)

MNB (May 2010) 5,5 4,3 5,2

European Commission (May 2010)3

4,5 5,1 -

IMF (April 2010) 3,0 3,2 -

OECD (May 2010)

3,4

6,7 6,9 -Forecasts on the GDP growth rate of Hungary's trade partners (annual growth rate, %)

MNB (May 2010) 1,5 2,0 2,3

European Commission (May 2010)3

1,4 2,0 -

IMF (July 2010)3

1,6 2,1 2,5

OECD (May 2010)3,4

1,9 2,4 -

3Values calculated by MNB; the projections of the named institutions regarding individual countries are considered with the weights used for calculating the MNBs

own external demand indicators. These figures may differ from those published by the aforementioned institutions.

The projections of the MNB are 'conditional', which means that they cannot always be directly compared with the projections of other institutions.1

In addition to the averages of polled analysts responses (the values in the middle), the smallest and largest values are also indicated for the Reuters and Consensus

Economics surveys in order to illustrate distribution.

4

OECD did not publish any information about Romania, therefore Romania is not included in our OECD forecast.

Sources: Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (Consensus Economics Inc. (London), July 2010); European Commission Economic Forecasts (May 2010); IMF

World Economic Outlook Database (April 2010), World Economic Outlook Update (July 2010); IMF Country Report No. 10/80 (March 2010); Reuters

survey (August 2010); OECD Economic Outlook No.87 (May 2010).

2Data not adjusted for calendar-day variations .

* The numbers in brackets refer to the deficit achievable in case of total blocking of budgetary reserves. In our forecast we have not taken into consideration any risks

from debt assumptions.

33


35/48

External Balance 19 August 2010

Notes: seasonally adjusted; as a percentage of GDP.

83. Net financing capacity of the non-monetary corporate sector

82. Net financing capacity of the household sector

Notes: seasonally adjusted, as a percentage of GDP.

Source: MNB.

Source: MNB.

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2001Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2002Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2003Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2004Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2005Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2007Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2008Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2009Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2010Q1

Q2

%%

Net financing capacity Liabilities Assets

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2000Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2001Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2002Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2003Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2004Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2005Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2007Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2008Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2009Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2010Q1

%%

net financing capacity liabilities assets

34


36/48

External Balance 19 August 2010

Notes: annual growth rate.

85. Change in export and import volumes (goods and services)

84. Net borrowing of the household sector

Notes: monthly change, seasonally adjusted data.

Source: MNB.

Source: MNB.

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

Jan

.2000

Apr.

July

Oct.

Jan

.2001

Apr.

July

Oct.

Jan

.2002

Apr.

July

Oct.

Jan

.2003

Apr.

July

Oct.

Jan

.2004

Apr.

July

Oct.

Jan

.2005

Apr.

July

Oct.

Jan

.2006

Apr.

July

Oct.

Jan

.2007

Apr.

July

Oct.

Jan

.2008

Apr.

July

Oct.

Jan

.2009

Apr.

July

Oct.

Jan

.2010

Apr.


Consumption and other loans Mortgages (in HUF) Mortgages (in foreign currency) Total amount of loans

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2001Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2002Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2003Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2004Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2005Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2007Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2008Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2009Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2010Q1

%%

Export Import

35


37/48

Domestic Economic Conjuncture 19 August 2010

Notes: the fan chart represents the uncertainty around the central projection. Overall, the coloured area represents a 90 per cent probability. The central area containing the central

projection for the GDP illustrated by the dotted line (as the mode of distribution) refers to 30 per cent of the probability.

Notes: annual growth rate. Notes: seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rate.

86. Annual GDP growth rate 87. Quarterly GDP growth rate

88. Fan chart of the GDP forecast

Source: HCSO. Source: HCSO.

Source: MNB, HCSO.

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000Q1

Q3

2001Q1

Q3

2002Q1

Q3

2003Q1

Q3

2004Q1

Q3

2005Q1

Q3

2006Q1

Q3

2007Q1

Q3

2008Q1

Q3

2009Q1

Q3

2010Q1

%%

-3,0

-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

-3,0

-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2000Q1

Q3

2001Q1

Q3

2002Q1

Q3

2003Q1

Q3

2004Q1

Q3

2005Q1

Q3

2006Q1

Q3

2007Q1

Q3

2008Q1

Q3

2009Q1

Q3

2010Q1

%%

-8

-7

-6

-5-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-8

-7

-6

-5-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2008Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2009Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2010Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2011Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2012Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

%%

36


38/48


Notes: annual growth rates.

Notes: year-on-year volume indices of trend-estimates. Notes: year-on-year indices of trend-estimates; CPI deflated.

89. New dwelling trends 90. Developments in home prices

91. Household consumption and the accumulation of gross fixed assets

Source: HCSO. Source: Origo, FHN.

Source: HCSO.

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995Q2Q4

1996Q2Q4

1997Q2Q4

1998Q2Q4

1999Q2Q4

2000Q2Q4

2001Q2Q4

2002Q2Q4

2003Q2Q4

2004Q2Q4

2005Q2Q4

2006Q2Q4

2007Q2Q4

2008Q2Q4

2009Q2Q4

2010Q2

%%

Constructed dwellings (seasonally adjusted)

Issued construction permits (seasonally adjusted)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2001Q1

Q3

2002Q1

Q3

2003Q1

Q3

2004Q1

Q3

2005Q1

Q3

2006Q1

Q3

2007Q1

Q3

2008Q1

Q3

2009Q1

Q3

2010Q1

%%

Real home prices (Origo database) FHB home pr ice index

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2000Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2001Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2002Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2003Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2004Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2005Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2007Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2008Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2009Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

%%

Household consumption Gross fixed capital formation

37


39/48


Notes: year-on-year volume indices of seasonally adjusted data.

93. New orders in selected branches of the manufacturing sector

92. Industrial production and the output of the manufacturing sector

Notes: year-on-year volume indices of seasonally adjusted data.

Source: HCSO.

Source: HCSO, MNB.

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan

.2001

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan

.2002

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan

.2003

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan

.2004

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan

.2005

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan

.2006

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan

.2007

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan

.2008

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan

.2009

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan

.2010

Mar.

May

%%

Industrial production Manufacturing sector

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan.

2001

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.

2002

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.

2003

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.

2004

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.

2005

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.

2006

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.

2007

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.

2008

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.

2009

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.

2010

Mar.

May

%%

New domestic orders New export orders

38


40/48


Notes: seasonally adjusted annualised monthly growth rates. The data of total retail sales contain beyond the narrow retail sales the turnover of motor vehicles and automotive fuel as well.

Notes: the re-weighted consumer confidence index takes into account those sub-indices of the

GKI survey which are the most highly correlated with the time series of household

consumption expenditure. (For more details see: MNB Background Studies 2001/2)

94. GKI household confidence index (reweighted) 95. Quarterly growth rates of automobile sales

96. Total volume of retail trade

Source: GKI. Source: Association of Hungarian Motor Vehicle Importers.

Source: HCSO.

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

2000Q1

Q3

2001Q1

Q3

2002Q1

Q3

2003Q1

Q3

2004Q1

Q3

2005Q1

Q3

2006Q1

Q3

2007Q1

Q3

2008Q1

Q3

2009Q1

Q3

2010Q1

levellevel

-90

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

-90

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

2000Q1

Q3

2001Q1

Q3

2002Q1

Q3

2003Q1

Q3

2004Q1

Q3

2005Q1

Q3

2006Q1

Q3

2007Q1

Q3

2008Q1

Q3

2009Q1

Q3

2010Q1

%%

Automobile sales 3 month moving average

-25

-20-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-25

-20-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan.

2000

July

Jan.

2001

July

Jan.

2002

July

Jan.

2003

July

Jan.

2004

July

Jan.

2005

July

Jan.

2006

July

Jan.

2007

July

Jan.

2008

July

Jan.

2009

July

Jan.

2010

%%

Total retail sales 3-month central moving average

39


41/48


Notes: creditworthiness standards and credit conditions estimated by lending officers. Negative value indicates easing, positive indicates tightening compared to the last

quarter (before 2009 to previous half a year).

98. Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions in corporate sector

97. Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions in corporate sector

Notes: creditworthiness standards and credit conditions estimated by lending officers. Negative value indicates easing, positive indicates tightening compared to the last

quarter (before 2009 to previous half a year).

Source: MNB.

Source: MNB.

-50-40-30-20-100102030405060708090100

-50-40-30-20-10

0102030405060708090

100

2008H2

2009Q1

2009Q2

2009Q3

2009Q4

2010Q1

2010Q2

2010H2(forecast)

2004H2

2005H1

2005H2

2006H1

2006H2

2007H1

2007H2

2008H1

2008H2

2009Q1

2009Q2

2009Q3

2009Q4

2010Q1

2010Q2

2010H2(forecast)

2004H2

2005H1

2005H2

2006H1

2006H2

2007H1

2007H2

2008H1

2008H2

2009Q1

2009Q2

2009Q3

2009Q4

2010Q1

2010Q2

2010H2(forecast)

Large and medium-sized enterprises

Small and micro-sized enterprises Commercial real estate loans

%

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2002H2

2003H1

2003H2

2004H1

2004H2

2005H1

2005H2

2006H1

2006H2

2007H1

2007H2

2008H1

2008H2

2009Q1

2009Q2

2009Q3

2009Q4

2010Q1

2010Q2

2010H2(forecast)

%%

Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions - housing loan Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions - consumer loan

40


42/48

Labour Market 19 August 2010


100. Wage growth in the market service sector

99. Wage growth in the manufacturing sector


Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by NBH

Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by NBH.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan

.2004

Mar.

May

July

Sep.

Nov.

Jan

.2005

Mar.

May

July

Sep.

Nov.

Jan

.2006

Mar.

May

July

Sep.

Nov.

Jan

.2007

Mar.

May

July

Sep.

Nov.

Jan

.2008

Mar.

May

July

Sep.

Nov.

Jan

.2009

Mar.

May

July

Sep.

Nov.

Jan

.2010

Mar.

May

%

average gross wage ex-bonus payments average gross wage

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan.

2004

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.

2005

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.

2006

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.

2007

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.

2008

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.

2009

Mar.

MayJuly

Sep.

Nov.

Jan.

2010

Mar.

May

%%

average gross wage ex-bonus payments average gross wage

41


43/48

Labour Market 19 August 2010

Notes: levels, seasonally adjusted.

Notes: annual growth rates. Notes: seasonally adjusted, annualised quarterly growth rates.

101. Wage growth in the private sector 102. Unit labour cost in the private sector

103. Activity and unemployment

Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by NBH. Source: HCSO.

Source: HCSO.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan.2

004Apr.JulyOct.

Jan.2

005Apr.JulyOct.

Jan.2

006Apr.JulyOct.

Jan.2

007Apr.JulyOct.

Jan.2

008Apr.JulyOct.

Jan.2

009Apr.JulyOct.

Jan.2

010Apr.

%%

average gross wage ex

Documents

Hungary - Chart Pack of Developments - Aug 2010