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HWA CHONG CONFLICT RESOLUTION AND INQUIRY

2016

European Union

European Refugee Crisis

By Celine Leong, Sarah Tang and Tan Zhong Chen

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Background

In the mid-1980s, EU member states recognised that the abolishment of internal borders

necessitated strengthening external border controls and cooperation in the field of asylum

and immigration. In 1985, these countries thus signed the Schengen Agreement 1 that

established common rules regarding visas, the right to asylum and checks at external borders.

It was eventually incorporated into the EU acquis following the signing of the Treaty of

Amsterdam in 1999.

The first instance of regional cooperation can largely be attributed to the influx of refugees

faced by a number of Member States, especially Germany and France, following the conflicts

in the Balkans and the collapse of communist regimes in Eastern Europe.

The Treaty of Amsterdam allowed Member States to adopt legally binding instruments in

asylum and immigration policies, as well as negotiate the creation of a Common European

Asylum System (CEAS) 2 . The system sets out minimum standards and procedures for

processing and assessing asylum applications, and for the treatment of both asylum seekers

and those granted refugee status. However, in reality, many EU states have yet to properly

implement these standards, leading to uneven results.

1 "Refugees in the EU - European Council on Refugees and Exiles." Accessed April 13, 2016. http://www.ecre.org/refugees/refugees/refugees-in-the-eu.html. 2 "The EU Has a Solidarity Crisis. Not a Refugee Crisis." Open Society Foundations. October 2015. Accessed April 13, 2016. https://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/explainers/understanding-migration-and-asylum-european-union.

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Recent Developments

As the Syrian Civil War enters its fifth year, half of the country’s pre-war population – more

than 11 million people – have been either killed or forced to flee their homes. This has only

further compounded the existing refugee influx from Afghanistan and Iraq (Fig. 1), causing a

massive surge in the number of people seeking sanctuary in Europe. The refugee crisis shows

no signs of slowing – with numbers exceeding 1 million for the first time in December 20153,

and an estimated further 138,280 new arrivals by sea in 2016 alone4 (Fig. 2).

Figure 1: The top nationalities of refugees arriving in Europe, updated March 20165

3 ‘Worldwide displacement hits all-time high as war and persecution increase,’UNHCR, last modified 2015, December 20th, http://www.unhcr.org/558193896.html 4 ‘Mediterranean Migrant, Refugee Arrivals Top 100,000,’ International Organisation for Migration, last modified February 23rd, 2016, http://www.iom.int/news/mediterranean-migrant-refugee-arrivals-top-100000 5 ‘Migrant crisis: Migration to Europe explained in seven charts,’ BBC News, 4th March 2015. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911

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Figure 2: Geographical breakdown of refugee arrivals in 20166

Most refugees – many of whom cannot swim – expose themselves to immense risks as they

cross the Mediterranean in flimsy rubber dinghies and wooden boats. In April 2016, for

instance, more than 500 refugees drowned when a boat already packed with 300 migrants

attempted to take on more passengers from a second smaller boat, leading to its capsize. The

incident was the deadliest episode for asylum seekers trying to reach Europe since more than

800 drowned in April 2015, the incident that sparked widespread media attention on the

refugee issue.

6 Sewell Chan, ‘How a Record Number of Migrants Made Their Way to Europe, The New York Times, 2015, December 20th. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/23/world/europe/migrant-crisis-europe-million.html?action=click&contentCollection=Europe&module=RelatedCoverage&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article

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In recent months, the inability to reach a consensus on how to effectively respond to the

refugee crisis has generated significant discord between EU member states. In particular, EU

member states disagree on how responsibility for refugees should be shared.

Greece7, the most popular point of entry into Europe for refugees, currently houses more

than 53,000 stranded refugees. Other EU border nations such as Bulgaria, along with Balkan

nations such as Albania and Macedonia (FYROM), are also popular entry-points (Fig. 3). Often,

refugees are subjected to poor quality of food, lack of blankets and privacy and inadequate

access to appropriate medical care. For example, the Moria8 detention centre in Lesvos is

around 1000 people over carrying capacity, and has only 3 doctors available to provide

medical care for the 3150 refugees housed.

Figure 3: An overview of refugee movements across Europe

7 Raziye Akkoc. "What the Refugee Crisis Looks like across Europe over Four Weeks in Six Charts." The Telegraph. April 14, 2016. Accessed April 14, 2016. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/14/what-the-refugee-crisis-looks-like-across-europe-over-four-weeks/. 8 "Greece: Refugees Detained in Dire Conditions amid Rush to Implement EU-Turkey Deal." Amnesty International. April 7, 2016. Accessed April 14, 2016. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/04/greece-refugees-detained-in-dire-conditions-amid-rush-to-implement-eu-turkey-deal/.

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Numbers have slowed (Fig. 4) after the European Union (EU) and Turkey signed a refugee deal.

Ideally, it aims to facilitate the movement of refugees from Greece to Turkey, before

relocating refugees from Turkey to Europe. However, implementation of the deal is fraught

with problems – many claim that it contravenes basic aspects of the 1951 Refugee Convention,

which states that refugees should not be returned to countries that are unable to guarantee

their rights, such as Turkey9.

Figure 4: Average number of refugee arrivals per day

Furthermore, Europe lacks a long-term relocation plan for refugees. Currently, Germany is

the largest recipient of asylum applications in Europe, followed by France and Sweden. That

said, Germany’s liberal “open door” policy, championed by Chancellor Angela Merkel, has

been the subject of increasing criticism.

Recent events such as the Cologne attacks10, where as many as 1000 women had been

sexually assaulted – groped, robbed and intimidated – have only hardened public opinion

against refugees throughout the EU. The revelation that one of the attackers in the Paris

9 Kingsley, Patrick, and Jennifer Rankin. "EU-Turkey Refugee Deal – Q&A." The Guardian. March 08, 2016. Accessed April 14, 2016. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/08/eu-turkey-refugee-deal-qa. 10 Victoria Richards. "Cologne Attacks: What Happened after 1,000 Women Were Sexually Assaulted?" The Independent. February 11, 2016. Accessed April 14, 2016. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/cologne-attacks-what-happened-after-1000-women-were-sexually-assaulted-a6867071.html.

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attacks of November 2015 may have been posing as a Syrian refugee11 also raised fears that

other militants may use the migrant crisis to destabilise Europe.

The massive influx of refugees have far exceeded the existing capacities of most nations in

the EU. The unprecedented arrival of so many refugees has imposed considerable strain on

countries, causing social fragmentation and discord.

Explanation of the Problem

Major considerations can be broadly split into two segments: first, establishment of the

criteria for determining the split of responsibilities and number of refugees between states;

second, the mechanism of balancing national interests with international obligations.

Determining Duty of Care

Establishing a fair metric to share the management of refugees has consistently been the

overarching point of contention between EU member states. Despite previous efforts to

outline quotas each country is expected to fulfil – determined primarily by a country’s

population and gross domestic product (GDP) – many countries (Fig. 5) have failed to adhere

to the decided terms.

11 "Paris Attacks: Who Were the Attackers? - BBC News." BBC News. March 18, 2016. Accessed April 14, 2016. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34832512.

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Figure 5: Distribution of refugees among member states

Primarily, countries are concerned with protecting national interests, such as minimising

security risks, and economic and social strains. In particular, countries with larger economies

have been expected to bear a large proportion of the burden, as compared to the ex-Eastern

Bloc countries which are less able to support refugee intakes.

In the long-term, it is also vital to consider the sustainability of a relocation programme. Most

refugees are from war-torn states, and their presence in host nations is likely to be a

prolonged occurrence. Furthermore, initial willingness in accepting refugees has set an

unsustainable precedent – many undertake considerable risk to reach Europe, fuelled by the

false perception that the EU is a safe and open sanctuary, only to be turned away at borders

upon arrival.

Security Risks

Recent events in Europe, including the Cologne attacks and Brussels bombings have plunged

Europe into a sphere of anxiety and distrust. Many believe that refugees threaten the stability

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of Europe. While many of these fears are rooted in xenophobic notions, there are legitimate

fears that the overwhelming numbers of refugee intakes inhibit member states’ ability to

conduct sufficiently thorough background checks before accepting asylum applications. For

instance, even though all the attackers in the November 2015 Paris attacks were born in the

EU, some may have been posing as refugees to gain re-entry into Europe, since many of them

were on EU watchlists.

Economic and Social Strains

Housing and supporting refugees’ basic needs – much less integrating them into society –

constitute an immense burden for many EU states, especially the less economically well-off

nations. Austria, which had previously joined Germany in opening its borders in September

2015, has recognised this reality; it reinstated strict border controls in 2016 because it simply

could not afford to support further influxes of refugees.

Compounding the problem is the rise of right-wing parties and politicians – including Marine

Le Pen in France, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and the recent victories of the far-right

Freedom Party in Austria – throughout Europe, with their hostile stances towards immigration

and the European Union gaining increasing popularity in the light of ever-increasing refugee

influxes. Even in Germany, the recipient of the largest number of asylum applications in

Europe12 as a result of its open door policy, more than 1,700 people attended the rally

organised by the far-right PEGIDA (Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamisation of the West)

movement on 9th January 2016, exposing the violent tensions caused by immigration within

the country.

However, border controls (the most common measure employed by EU member states)

simply offload the migration burden onto other EU member states. Greece, for instance, has

in effect become a giant holding centre for stranded migrants who cannot go forward because

of the new border restrictions in neighbouring Balkan states like Macedonia and Serbia, but

will not or cannot go back.

Attempts to modify the Dublin Regulation to achieve more equal distribution have met heavy

opposition from Eastern European states, notably by Hungary, which already has the highest

number of asylum applications in proportion to its population, despite having closed its

border with Croatia in an attempt to stem the flow in October 2015 (Fig. 6).

12 ‘2015 UNHCR subregional operations profile - Northern, Western, Central and Southern Europe,’ UNHCR, last modified 2015, December 30th, http://www.unhcr.org/pages/49e48e5f6.html

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Figure 6: Asylum applications per capita in Europe

Long Term Implications

In the long term, the EU will have to deal with the wider issue of an indefinite increase in

refugee intakes. Already, some states have recognised this problem, issuing a declaration in

the February 2016 meeting in Austria stating that “…it is not possible to process unlimited

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numbers of migrants and applicants for asylum.”13 The document cited “limited resources

and reception capacities, potential consequences for internal security and social cohesion as

well as challenges with regard to integration.” France similarly announced recently that it

would uphold its pledge to take on 30,000 of the 160,000 refugees European countries have

agreed to divide among themselves, but would accept neither a permanent quota system nor

additional numbers of refugees.

Timeline of Major Events

Date

Details

March 15, 2011 Syrian Civil War begins – displaces more than half of the

country’s population by 2016

June 2015 Hungary unilaterally stops accepting Dublin transfers (refer to

Past Actions and Resolutions below)

August-October 2015 Hungary constructs a barrier on its border

with Serbia and Croatia

5th September 2015 Austria and Germany open borders to migrants offloaded by

Hungary

23rd September 2015 EU states agree to implement a refugee quota system (refer to

Past Actions and Resolutions below)

November 2015 EU sets up the Refugee Facility for Turkey, a legal framework to

coordinate and streamline support for refugees in Turkey

The European Commission allocates €62 million in

humanitarian aid to support Syrians displaced by the

conflict inside the country (out of a total humanitarian aid

budget of €200 million for 2016)

Series of coordinated terrorist attacks in Paris

13 C.J. Polychroniou, ‘Austria and 9 Balkan States Reach Refugee Agreement at the Expense of Greece,’ Greek Reporter, Feb 24, 2016. Retrieved from http://greece.greekreporter.com/2016/02/24/austria-and-9-balkan-states-reach-refugee-agreement-at-the-expense-of-greece/#sthash.WFqUUGpB.dpuf

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31st December 2015 Cologne assaults: Hundreds of young men (many of whom had

applied for asylum in Germany) took advantage of the New

Year’s Eve street party to sexually assault victims or steal

20th January Austria announces a new cap on the number of refugees it

wants to accept — 37,500 for 2016 and a total of 127,500

through 2019

24th February 2016 Austria and nine Balkan states hold a meeting, unilaterally

deciding to impose internal border controls

29th February 2016 France begins to dismantle part of a vast migrant camp near

the northern city of Calais, known as “the Jungle”

1st March 2016 Riots break out among the thousands of refugees stuck at the

border between Greece and Macedonia

18th March 2016

EU signs deal with Turkey concerning illegal migrants entering

Greece from Turkey

22nd March 2016

Brussels bombing: More than 30 people killed and dozens

injured in attacks at Brussels international airport and a city

metro station

Key Sub-topics for Debate

Sub-topic 1: Proportioning the burden of refugees among EU member nations

In attempting to achieve an effective, unified consensus in response to the refugee crisis, a

balance has to be struck between the immediate national interests of all countries involved

and the needs of refugees. What constitutes an equitable short-term allocation of refugee

intakes across member states will definitely be a point of contention, given the complex socio-

economic realities of each individual country. An extension of this would be deciding upon

the EU’s long-term duty of care, especially in light of many member states’ already existing

aversion to supporting refugee burdens.

Sub-topic 2: Enforcement of EU refugee policies

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Ensuring compliance with any proposed policies would involve working out a coherent system

of regional checks and balances to ensure uniform enforcement. In particular, there will be a

need to engage with uncooperative member states such as Hungary, which has violated

international law in its attempt to cease the influx of refugees. Inevitably, this will come up

against states that have already unilaterally imposed border controls, notably Austria and the

nine Balkan states that attended the February Austrian meeting.

Sub-topic 3: Establishing dignified and equitable treatment of refugees

Existing measures involving the management of border controls will require much refinement

to better ensure the basic dignities of refugees, in-line with the core EU values of human

dignity, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights. In particular, the support given

to border nations and the management of dangerous or illegal routes into Europe will have

to be accounted for. Regarding the former, a possible extension would involve a reappraisal

of the EU-Turkey deal, in the form of improvements that can let existing mechanisms achieve

greater efficacy, and could also include checks and balances to manage Turkey’s treatment of

refugees.

Past Actions and Relevant Resolutions

The 1951 Refugee Convention

Signed by 144 State parties, this UN multilateral treaty outlines the rights of the displaced, as

well as the legal obligations of States to cooperate with UNHCR in protecting them. The core

principle is non-refoulement, which asserts that a refugee should not be returned to a country

where they face serious threats to their life or freedom. This is now considered a rule of

customary international law.

Under the Convention, the term ‘refugee’ is defined as follows:

“A person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion,

nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country

of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the

protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of

his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is

unwilling to return to it.” 14

14 UNHCR (2010) UN History: The 1951 Refugee Convention. Retrieved from http://www.unhcr.org/pages/49da0e466.html

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The Schengen Accord

The imposition of border controls have contravened the terms of the Schengen Accord, which

allowed for free travel between countries without passports or visas. In response to the

refugee crisis, Germany, Austria, France and Hungary, among others, have reinstated their

own border controls.

More pressingly on February 24th 2016, four European Union members (Austria, Bulgaria,

Croatia and Slovenia), along with Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, FYROM, Montenegro and Serbia,

unilaterally decided to impose internal border controls. The ten countries agreed on several

measures to halt the influx of refugees, including restricting refugee intakes to “only those

who are in need of international protection”. The agreement excludes Afghans and all those

who seek entry to Europe for economic reasons (i.e. in order to improve their lives). In

addition, they agreed to provide support to FYROM to aid its implementation of the new

restrictions at its border with Greece, which was not invited to the talks.

The Dublin Regulation

An EU law, it stipulates that the country where an asylum seeker first enters the union is

responsible for registering the asylum application and taking fingerprints. Asylum seekers

who move on to other countries after being registered can be sent back to the responsible

nation to be processed, in what are called Dublin transfers. This, however, leads to refugee

numbers remaining concentrated in EU border nations, which are already overwhelmed with

existing influxes of refugees.

EU states agreed at an emergency meeting on 23rd September 2015 to implement a refugee

quota system which will distribute 160,000 refugees across the EU (Fig. 7), despite four

member states – the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia – voting against the

proposal. Denmark, Ireland and the UK are not participating in the system. A number of

member states (notably Hungary) have yet to agree to adhere to the rules of the quota system,

with Hungary holding a referendum in the months ahead to decide whether or not to accept

the terms stipulated by the EU.

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Figure 7: The refugee quota system, under which Germany will take in the most refugees

The EU-Turkey deal, which aims to facilitate movement into Europe, too has its limitations. It

does not affect existing refugees in Greece, but merely discourages more from seeking the

help of smugglers. Furthermore, EU states are concerned about Ankara’s human rights record

– including its treatment of the Kurds and a crackdown on critics of the government – and the

United Nations, along with many rights groups, fear the deal could violate international law

that forbids the mass deportation of refugees.

Humanitarian Aid Policies

The EU provides significant aid to non-EU member states within Europe to allow them to cope

with the influx of refugees. In 2015, total EU humanitarian aid to the Western Balkans (notably

Serbia and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) stood at €21.74 million. Since the

beginning of the Syria crisis in 2011, the Commission has also provided a total assistance of

€365 million to Turkey, including humanitarian aid and longer-term assistance. In November

2015 the EU has decided to set up a legal framework – a Refugee Facility for Turkey – to

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coordinate and streamline actions financed in order to deliver efficient and complementary

support to refugees in Turkey.

The Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC), one of the operational wings of the

European Commission's Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection department (ECHO), oversees

the delivery of aid within Europe. During the second half of 2015, Hungary, Serbia, Slovenia,

Croatia and Greece received assistance from the Centre in response to the increased influx of

migrants and refugees. The Centre provided key essentials such as temporary shelter

(including winterised family tents, blankets and sleeping bags), food, health, water and

sanitation to respond to the basic needs of refugees.

Key Stakeholders & their Positions

Germany

Germany, the chief recipient of refugees, accepted close to 1 million individuals in 2015.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, one of the strongest supporters of an “open-door-policy”

has found herself in a precarious position. Merkel’s approval ratings have fallen to 46%15

(From a high of 75% almost a year ago), and 40% of people want her to resign over the refugee

crisis.

The massive influx of refugees has also fragmented society. Following the Cologne attacks,

public opinion has hardened against refugees. In retaliation, over 1000 domestic attacks were

carried out against refugees, including arson and live grenades.

In response, Merkel has already made corrections to her open-door policy, including a stricter

deportation law for immigrants who commit crimes 16 . Furthermore, many economic

immigrants have exploited the lack of border identity checks, gaining entry into Europe by

masquerading as refugees. Currently, Germany houses around 8000 people from Northern

Africa, who are obliged to leave, but cannot be sent back because they lack identification

papers. Their home countries need to be pressured into cooperation.

Greece and other Balkan States

The EU-Turkey deal has left many refugees stranded in Greece, with little hope of travelling

further into Europe. Meanwhile, Balkan countries – including Macedonia and Croatia – have

15 Willa Frej. "Germans Are Turning Sour On Angela Merkel." The Huffington Post. April 2, 2016. Accessed April 15, 2016. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/angela-merkel-approval-ratings_us_56b35e43e4b08069c7a62cb1. 16 Bittner, Jochen. "Can Germany Be Honest About Its Refugee Problems?" The New York Times. January 15, 2016. Accessed April 15, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/16/opinion/can-germany-be-honest-about-its-refugee-problems.html.

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sparked human rights concerns by imposing new border restrictions, sparking off staged

protests, such as by sewing their lips together17.

A recent conference, hosted by Austria, was attended by 9 other Balkan states. They agreed

that the inflow of refugees must be capped immediately, and intend to respond with

measures of their own. Although uninvited to the conference, Greece Prime Minister Alexis

Tsipras has also said that from now on Greece “will not assent to agreements” unless other

EU member states are forced to participate proportionately in the relocation and

resettlement of refugees18.

France

French Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, has warned that the huge inflow of refugees will

destabilise Europe. It has not moved to open its doors freely, and will take only up to 24,000

refugees in the coming year.

Domestically, France’s decision to demolish a Calais refugee camp known as the Jungle has

forcibly evicted refugees. Without clear housing alternatives, many have resorted to squatter

settlements in central Calais. There are also increasing instances of refugees trying to cross

the Channel from France into England, storming ferries and breaking into the Eurotunnel

terminal.

UK

The United Kingdom is outside the Schengen zone (along with Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus,

Ireland and Romania), and has considerably greater freedom over border controls, generally

choosing to operate on its own terms. For example, in June 2015, UK opted out of a voluntary

system devised by European leaders for sharing the refugee burden across the EU.

Currently almost 5000 Syrians have been granted asylum in the UK since the Syrian conflict

begun in 2011. Prime Minister David Cameron also revealed that the UK would accept 20,000

more refugees from Syria by 2020. In response, many have pointed out that the UK’s plan

seems lacking in comparison to other nations – such as Germany, where 18,000 refugees

arrived over a weekend alone. Furthermore, the refugee crisis has become increasingly

contentious in domestic politics, fuelling supporters of a British exit from the EU.

17 "Migrant Crisis: France Valls Warns on Refugee Numbers - BBC News." BBC News. November 25, 2015. Accessed April 15, 2016. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34904931. 18 C.J. Polychroniou. "Austria and 9 Balkan States Reach Refugee Agreement at the Expense of Greece." GreeceGreekReportercom Latest News from Greece. February 24, 2015. Accessed April 15, 2016. http://greece.greekreporter.com/2016/02/24/austria-and-9-balkan-states-reach-refugee-agreement-at-the-expense-of-greece/.

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What a Declaration Should Tackle

A resolution should broadly outline two key areas: first, a clear metric for allocating refugees;

second, a mechanism that highlights both short-term and long-term plans for the

management of refugees. This includes a strong commitment to ensuring that the dignities

and security of refugees are protected, and that such initiatives can be sustained into the

future. It might also wish to consider unified European diplomatic engagement with other

countries outside Europe that might be able to share the refugee burden, such as Middle-

Eastern states like Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, or other Western democracies like the

United States or Austria.

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