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6/23/2013
1
HYBTEP HYBRID TECHNOLOGICAL ECONOMIC
PLATFORM
Patrícia Fortes, Júlia Seixas
63rd Semi-annual ETSAP meeting, Paris
Motivation
Top-down models
+ Describe the interaction between the energy system and the economy as a whole
− Do not contain technological detail, representing the energy sector in aggregate form
Bottom-up models
+ Represent the energy system with great detail
− Ignore the full macroeconomic feedbacks of different energy system pathways
Policy makers need clear and consistent information concerning the real impact of policies in the economy and the most cost-efficient technology portfolio to achieve a low carbon future
6/23/2013
2
Context
Hybrid approaches to assess economic, environmental and technological impacts of
long term low carbon scenarios - The Portuguese case:
The objective of HybCO2 research project is to advance on modelling tools and improve impact assessment and energy and climate policy design: • HYBTEP (HYBrid Technological Economic Platform) supported by a soft-link
between the bottom-up model, TIMES_PT and the top-down GEM-E3_PT;
• HYBGED (HYBrid General Equilibrium Dynamic) model sustained by Mixed Complementarity Problem.
HybCO2 is a research project funded by:
HybTEP - Hybrid Technological Economic Platform
Goal:
Obtain a modelling platform with the detailed technological information of TIMES_PT;
Explicit representation of economy and its factors (production, consumption, labour) from GEM-E3_PT.
Approach
Fuel substitution and energy prices are driven by technological decisions within the framework of the TIMES-PT model.
GEM-E3_PT model receives energy demand and the resulting changes in economic output growth are used as adjusted exogenous drivers to the TIMES-PT model.
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3
Models Harmonization
Defining correspondent sectors and energy commodities
GEM-E3_PT productive sectors/household expenditure category
TIMES_PT sectors
01. Agriculture Agriculture 02. Oil Oil Refinery 03. Coal
Other energy supply 04. Natural Gas 05. Power sector Electricity 06. Ferrous and non-ferrous metals Iron and Steel; Non-ferrous metals 07. Chemical Ammonia; Chlorine; Other chemicals
08. Energy intensive sector Cement; lime; hollow glass; flat glass; other non-
metallic minerals; high quality paper; low quality paper
09. Electric and Other equipment goods; 10. Transport equipment; Other Industries; 11. Consumer Goods Industries; 12. Food and textile; 13. Construction
Other industries
14. Land transport; Road freight, rail freight; buses, intercity coaches,
heavy rail passengers, subway 15. Other transport; Aviation; navigation 16. Services of credit and insurances; 17. Other Market Services; 18. Non Market Services
Services (space heating and cooling, water heating, cooking, refrigeration, electric appliances,
public lighting)
Households operation of transport associated with Operation of transport
Car short distance; car long distance; moto
Households Fuels and power associated with Heating and cooking appliances
Residential (heating, cooling and water heating, lighting, refrigeration, cooking, electric appliances)
Domestic Output
Capital Labor-Energy-Materials
CES
CES
Labor Energy Materials
01.AGR 06.IIS
CES
... 18.COM3
Coal
Electricity
Oil
Gas
Leontief
Biomass
GEM-E3 changes
Original
HybTEP modified version
i. Energy consumption and fuel mix defined exogenously;
ii. New energy commodity: biomass;
iii. Energy prices evolution defined exogenously;
Domestic Output
Capital Labor - Energy - Materials
CES
CES
Labor
Electricity Fuels
En ergy
CES
Materials
01. AGR 06. IIS
CES
Coal Oil
CES
Gas
... 18.COM3 07. ICH
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4
Coupling Framework
• Sector domestic production growth • GDP growth • Private consumption growth • Sector energy services demand
• Energy consumption per sector/energy carrier
• Energy costs per sector (incl. CO2e price in Policy scenarios)
• Energy consumption in volume (€) • Energy mix (%) • Energy price evolution • Energy efficiency evolution
Demand generator
Linking Process
𝑫𝑬𝑴𝒊,𝒕 = 𝑫𝑬𝑴𝒊,𝒕−𝟏 ∙ 𝟏 + 𝑫𝑹𝑮𝑹𝒊,𝒕 × 𝐄𝐋𝐀𝐒𝒊,𝒕 𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒐𝒅 𝒍𝒆𝒏𝒈𝒕𝒉
∙ (𝟏 − 𝐀𝐄𝐄𝐈𝒊)
Each cycle represents 1 iteration
Convergence criteria: Min energy services demand difference (Euclidean function)
HYTEP
DG
DG
LP
Reference scenario: no energy/climate policy
Policy scenario: CO2 tax to induce a GHG emissions reduction in line
with EU goal (EU Energy Roadmap: 2020: 25€7ton, 2030: 52€/ton, 2050: >265€/ton )
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
M€ 2
00
5
Scenarios
2.9%pa
GDP
Private Consumption 2.8%pa
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5
Reference Scenario
Demand Convergence: achived after 5 linking cycles
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2005 2020 2030 2050
Mt
ICM
It.0
It.1
It.2
It.3
It.4
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2005 2020 2030 2050
Mt
IIS
It.0
It.1
It.2
It.3
It.4
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2020 2030 2050
PJ
Services
It.0
It.1
It.2
It.3
It.4
0
50
100
150
2005 2020 2030 2050
PJ
Residential
It.0
It.1
It.2
It.3
It.4
Reference scenario - GHG
In 2050 the difference between TIMES it.0 and GEM-E3 GHG emissions is 93%
GEM-E3 reduces energy intensity less than 1% per year and no significant change in the fuel mix is observed
TIMES reduces energy intensity at around 2% per year and increases the share of electricity (+9%) from 2005 to 2050
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
2005 2020 2030 2050
kt C
O2e
It.0 / TIMES
It.1
It.2
It.3
It.4
GEM-E3
+93%
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6
Convergence is achieved after 4 linking cycles
In 2050 the national GHG emissions are reduce: 80.4% with no Link, 83.7% with full iteration (HybTEP) and 84% with TIMES-ELAS, comparing with 1990
Policy scenario
-85.2% / -87.7%
-21.6% / -27.6% -9.8% / -14.3%
Policy Scenario - GHG
No linking versus Hytep versus TIMES-ELAS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
2005 2020 2030 2050
PJ
kt C
O2
ICH
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
0
50
100
150
200
2005 2020 2030 2050
Mt
kt C
O2
IPP
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2020 2030 2050
Mt
kt C
O2
IIS
No Link (It. 0)
TIMES-ELAS
HybTEP (It. 3)
No Link (It. 0)
TIMES-ELAS
HybTEP (It. 3)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
2005 2020 2030 2050
PJ
kt C
O2
COM
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7
Policy Scenario – Final Energy
In 2050, TIMES-ELAS reduces more the final energy consumption than HybTEP
The fossil fuels consumption between TIMES-ELAS and HybTEP is almost the same justifying the close GHG emissions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
No Link(It. 0)
TIMES-ELAS HybTEP(It. 3)
No Link(It. 0)
TIMES-ELAS HybTEP(It. 3)
No Link(It. 0)
TIMES-ELAS HybTEP(It. 3)
2005 2030 2050
PJ
Other (incl. RES)
Biomass
Electricity
Gas
Oil
Coal
-14% -9%
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
2020 2030 2040 2050
M€ 2
00
5
GDP impact
REF GDP
Policy GDP
Economic Impact
2020: -3.6%
2030: -3.0%
2050: -6.4%
Policy scenario induces a reduction of annual GDP around 4.5% between 2020 and 2050
Chemical is the industry with higher domestic production reduction comparing with Reference scenario
Domestic Demand: -8% in 2050
Imports: +13% in 2050.
Exports: -69% in 2050
Reduction of Domestic Production
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8
Conclusions
Modelling energy and/or climate policies with HybTEP allows to:
Obtain the most cost-effective technology portfolio and simultaneously;
Understand in a clear way the macroeconomic impact of such policies (e.g. in production, domestic demand, exports, imports)
Further Work
Replicate energy technologies investment patterns of TIMES_PT on GEM-E3_PT
Include other energy carriers on GEM-E3_PT (e.g. H2);
Thanks for your attention
Patrícia Fortes: [email protected]