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Hydro Modeling
Update
April 7, 2020
Kevin Harris (CG)
Production Cost
Modeling Data Work
Group (PDWG)
▪ Review Hydro Modeling
▪ Calculating Average Daily Operating Range
(DailyOpRange)
▪ Development of Columbia River
Assumptions
▪ Data Provided to WECC
2
Outline
Core slides are from PDWGAug 14, 2019 presentation
Review Hydro Modeling
3
▪ Options
• Hourly shape
• Proportional Load Following (PLF: K coefficient)
◦ Old method: User calc
◦ New method: User set average daily operating range by
month and PLF allocation (default 100%)
• Hydro Thermal Coordination (HTC: p coefficient)
◦ Old method: User calc
◦ New method: User set average daily operating range by
month and PLF allocation (default 100%)
• HTC allocation is 1 minus PLF allocation
4
Limited Energy Modeling
▪ PLF assumes Hydro generation the relative change in Hydro generation is equal to the relative change in load multiplied by a constant
▪ Calculation of K (the slope) can be simplified to
▪ GV can Calc K and p given
• Average Daily Operating Range (DailyOpRange) and PLF Allocation
• More info on calc can be found in spreadsheet Example_Hydro_K_and_p_Calc_v08.xlsx
5
Review Calc of K & p
𝐻𝑦𝑑𝑟𝑜 𝐺𝑒𝑛 𝐾′ =𝐻𝑦𝑑𝑟𝑜 𝐺𝑒𝑛 𝑅𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 (𝑎𝑣𝑔(𝑑𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑦max)−𝑎𝑣𝑔(𝑑𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑦 𝑚𝑖𝑛)) ∗ 𝑃𝐿𝐹 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒
𝐻𝑦𝑑𝑟𝑜 𝐺𝑒𝑛(𝑎𝑣𝑔)
𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝐾′ =𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑅𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 (𝑎𝑣𝑔(𝑑𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑦max)−𝑎𝑣𝑔(𝑑𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑦 min))
𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑(𝑎𝑣𝑔)
𝐾(𝑆𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒) =𝐻𝑦𝑑𝑟𝑜 𝐺𝑒𝑛 𝐾′
𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝐾′
𝑫𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒚𝑶𝒑𝑹𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆 = 𝑯𝒚𝒅𝒓𝒐 𝑮𝒆𝒏 𝑨𝒗𝒈 𝑫𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒚 𝑶𝒑 𝑹𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆 (𝑨𝒗𝒈(𝒅𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒚𝐦𝐚𝐱)−𝑨𝒗𝒈(𝒅𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒚 𝒎𝒊𝒏))
How to Calculate
Average Daily Operating Range
(DailyOpRange)
6
▪ DailyOpRange: Average Daily Operating Range by month
• Something like ‘AvgDailyOpR’ would be a better label
▪ Included spreadsheet can be used to calculate DailyOpRange
• Example_Hydro_Calc_Hydro_OpRange_2019_0813.xlsx
• Contains 2018 data for Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph
7
How to Calculate Operating Range
▪ Data quality issues may exist with raw data▪ Review and correct any data issues▪ Data Issues: Abnormal spike in generation either
up or down• Max rating of Coulee 6,765 & Chief Joseph 2,456
8
Cleanup Raw Data
▪ Select the number of adjacent hour used to calc DailyOpRange for Hydro. • 1 hour: applicable for real-time runs
• 2 hours: 2 hour rolling average smooths out real time dispatch variability. Applicable for a day-ahead PCM
• 3 hours: 3 hour rolling average has additional smoothing of out real time dispatch variability. Applicable for a day-ahead PCM
9
Adjacent Hours for PLF/HTC
▪ Set GridView to use the
same adjacent hours for
PLF as used to calc the
“Avg Daily Op Range”
▪ Set in • ‘Simulation Control’ form
• ‘Generation’ tab
• Lower right
10
Adjacent Hours for PLF/HTC
▪ Grand Coulee for 2018• P max: 6,765 MW
11
Example Operating Range #1
▪ Lower Columbia (4 proj, 6,100 MW) for 2018• McNary, John Day, The Dalles & Bonneville
12
Example Operating Range #2
▪ Tab: DataIn_Hrly_Hydro• Import hourly hydro generation
• Assumes col 2 has the date/time for all data
• Row 5 is user set description of data
▪ Tab: Calc• Calc values used in “Results” tab
▪ Tab: Results• Charts monthly operations
◦ Use spinner Data1 and Adjacent hours
• Compare Two Shapes (Data1 & Data2)
◦ Use spinner Data2 and Month
13
Review DailyOpRange Spreadsheet
▪ PLF allocation set the percent of operating range allocated to PLF
▪ HTC allocation is equal to (1 – PLF Allocation)
▪ 1) Configure the use of “Hydro Dispatch Option” set to “Region Load – Wind – Solar”
• Set appropriate Wind & Solar Coefficient Factor by region
▪ 2) If LMP profile is a better match to Hydro operations shape than 100% PLF
• Lower PLF allocation to shift some DailyOpRange to HTC
• Iterate to best match Hydro operations
14
Selecting PLF Allocation
Development Columbia River
Assumptions
15
Issue▪ Over the years operation on the Columbia River
has changed based on various constraints: environmental, fish, recreation,...
▪ The court throughout the 2011 biological opinion and required re-do of operation to comply to operating constraints
Problem▪ How to model 2009 (2008 Jun-Aug) the latest
observed Columbia River operation?
16
Development of Columbia River Modeling
Assumptions
17
Key Columbia Rive Projects
▪ Average daily operating range show
considerable operation flexibility at all
generation levels (<2011)
18
Change in Operation <2011
▪ Average daily operating range is less than pre
2011 and as generation increase the operating
range decreases (2011+)
19
Change in Operation 2011+
▪ Are individual projects proportional to load:
Nov-2017? (Not always)
20
Individual Projects: Nov-2017
▪ Area aggregated projects proportional or in
line with load shape? (Overall Yes)
21
▪ Individual projects are not always
proportional to load
22
Individual Projects: Oct-2016
▪ Aggregated projects are proportional or in
lone with load
23
Aggregate Projects Oct-2016
▪ Chart Daily Max Gen vs. Avg Daily Gen
▪ Chart: Daily Min Gen vs. Avg Daily Gen
▪ Year-over-year operation are consistent operations
24
Calc Daily Operating Range #1
25
Calc Daily Daily Operating Range #2
Lower Columbia River
Upper Columbia River
▪ Assume average daily operating range
(DailyOpRange) is equal to calc range range
based on average daily generation by month
▪ Calc OpR for 2011-20189
• Include years where target monthly generation is
within the limits of the polynomial data
▪ Model avg OpR: Where current years carry
more weighted that later years
26
Calc Daily Daily Operating Range #3
▪ By aggregated system (Upper Columbia, Lower Columbia and Lower Snake River), calc average daily operating range (DailyOpRange):
• Set appropriate adjacent hours value for calc
• Calc average by month by year (Daily Max[(Gen(Mo(i))] – Daily Min[Gen(Mo(i)])
◦ Where Gen(Mo(i)) is in aMW
• Average by month OpR for system with weighting 2011-2018
• Calc a individual plants allocation based on its’ typical OpR divided by Aggregated typical OpR
27
Allocate Operating Range to Plant
▪ Its assumed the monthly daily generation has a normal distribution
▪ Assume Pmin equal to 10% probability of occurring (z:= 1.2816)• Avg Gen – StDev(Daily Gen) * -1.2816 (Z at 0.1)
• Include only years where target monthly generation is within +/- 3% of the polynomial data
• Average available min ratings with weighting
• Error check: Calc value > 0 and is less than min used in calc DailyOpRange
• Calc a individual plants allocation based on its’ typical OpR divided by Aggregated typical OpR
28
Calc Monthly Min Gen (Pmin)
▪ Assume Pmin equal to 90% probability of occurring (z:= 1.2816)
• Avg Gen – StDev(Daily Gen) * 1.2816 (Z at 0.9)
• Include only years where target monthly generation is within +/- 3% of the polynomial data
• Average available min ratings with weighting
• Error check: Calc value < P max and is greater than max used in calc DailyOpRange
• Calc a individual plants allocation based on its’ typical OpR divided by Aggregated typical OpR
• By plant add additional capacity for spin
29
Calc Monthly Min Gen (Pmin)
Data Provided to WECC
30
▪ Original hourly Hydro generation data
provided for 2008 & 2009
• From individual operator by plant
• CAISO provided hourly generation by aggregate
system (river system)
31
Provided Data
▪ Monthly max EIA-860
▪ Based on provided hourly Hydro generation data
• Monthly average daily operating range: Monthly Avg(Daily Max: Avg(Large(1), Large(2)) – Daily Min: Avg(Small(1),Small(2))
• Monthly generation and minimum gen
▪ Set GV “Adjacent hours for PLF” to:= 2
32
Data to WECC
Columbia River projects processed as described in section 3 “Development of Columbia River Assumptions“
▪ Values calc based on section: “Development
Columbia River Assumptions”
33
Data for Columbia River