HYDROLOGY BASELINE REPORT - Alberta · Dover Commercial Project - 4 - Hydrology Baseline Report December 2010 Golder Associates Table 1 Summary of Climatic and Hydrologic Variables

HYDROLOGY BASELINE REPORT

DOVER COMMERCIAL PROJECT

Prepared for: Dover Operating Corporation

Prepared by: Golder Associates Ltd.

December 2010 09-1346-1011

- i - Hydrology Baseline Report December 2010

Golder Associates

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Dover Operating Corp. (Dover OPCO) proposes to develop and operate a commercial scheme for the recovery of bitumen from the McMurray formation approximately 95 km northwest of Fort McMurray, Alberta. This scheme will include the use of in situ steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) extraction, well pairs and two on-site steam generation and oil water treatment plants. The Project is submitted under the name of the Dover Commercial Project (the Project).

This report presents the baseline information on climatic and hydrologic conditions for the Project Aquatics Regional Study Area (RSA).

Climatic variables analyzed in this baseline study include air temperature, precipitation, evaporation and evapotranspiration. Sources of climatic data include the long-term historical records of Environment Canada stations and seasonal records of Alberta Sustainability Resources Development (ASRD) lookout stations.

Hydrologic variables analyzed include stream basin water yields and basin sediment yields. Sources of hydrologic data include records of the long-term monitoring stations operated by the Water Survey Division of Environment Canada, the Regional Aquatics Monitoring Program (RAMP) and available local monitoring stations within the aquatics RSA.

Relevant annual, seasonal, monthly and daily statistics for the climatic and hydrologic variables were derived from the available data and modelling. Stream flow analysis involved floods and low flow events.

The key mean annual climatic and hydrologic parameters derived for the Project Aquatics Regional Study Area are summarized below:

air temperature : 0.4°C

precipitation : 425 mm

lake evaporation : 608 mm

basin evapotranspiration : 349 mm

basin sediment yield : 0.0134 to 0.0204 mm

Dover Commercial Project - ii - Hydrology Baseline Report December 2010

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

SECTION PAGE

1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 STUDY OBJECTIVES ..................................................................................................... 3

2 PHYSICAL SETTING .................................................................................................. 5 2.1 AQUATICS REGIONAL STUDY AREA ........................................................................... 5 2.2 LOCAL STUDY AREA ..................................................................................................... 6

3 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................ 8 3.1 CLIMATE ......................................................................................................................... 8

3.1.1 Data Sources ................................................................................................... 8 3.1.2 Methods of Data Analysis ................................................................................ 9 3.1.3 Quality Assurance and Quality Control ............................................................ 9

3.2 HYDROLOGY ................................................................................................................ 10 3.2.1 Data Sources ................................................................................................. 10 3.2.2 Methods of Data Analysis .............................................................................. 16

4 RESULTS .................................................................................................................. 19 4.1 CLIMATE ....................................................................................................................... 19

4.1.1 Air Temperature ............................................................................................. 19 4.1.2 Precipitation ................................................................................................... 25 4.1.3 Evaporation and Evapotranspiration .............................................................. 33

4.2 HYDROLOGY ................................................................................................................ 36 4.2.1 Flow Characteristics and Basin Water Yields ................................................ 36 4.2.2 Basin Sediment Yield ..................................................................................... 57

5 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................ 58

6 CLOSURE ................................................................................................................. 59

7 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................... 60 7.1 LITERATURE CITED ..................................................................................................... 60 7.2 INTERNET SOURCES .................................................................................................. 61

8 GLOSSARY .............................................................................................................. 62

9 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................... 67

Dover Commercial Project - iii - Hydrology Baseline Report December 2010

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 Summary of Climatic and Hydrologic Variables ...................................................... 4 Table 2 Climate Monitoring Stations in the Regional Study Area Vicinity ............................ 8 Table 3 Hydrometric Stations Operated by Water Survey of Canada Near the

Regional Study Area .............................................................................................. 12 Table 4 Local Watercourses and Waterbodies Within the Aquatics Regional Study

Area Measured in 2008 ......................................................................................... 13 Table 5 Alberta Environment Water Licenses Within the Aquatics Regional Study

Area ....................................................................................................................... 15 Table 6 Measured Summer Air Temperatures ................................................................... 19 Table 7 Derived Maximum, Mean and Minimum Monthly Air Temperature

Statistics for the Regional Study Area (Data from 1964 to 2007) .......................... 22 Table 8 Measured Summer Precipitation ........................................................................... 25 Table 9 Derived Monthly Precipitation Statistics for the Aquatics RSA (1961 to

2007) ...................................................................................................................... 28 Table 10 Design Rainfall Depths Used for the Local Study Area ......................................... 31 Table 11 Derived Monthly Evaporation and Evapotranspiration for the Regional

Study Area (Data from 1964 to 2007) .................................................................... 34 Table 12 Derived Annual Evaporation and Evapotranspiration for the Aquatics

Regional Study Area .............................................................................................. 34 Table 13 Monthly Flows at Station 07DB001, MacKay River Near Fort MacKay

(Data from 1973 to 2008) ....................................................................................... 37 Table 14 Stream Flow Statistics for the MacKay River ........................................................ 38 Table 15 Monthly Flows at Station 07DB002, Dover River Near the Mouth ........................ 42 Table 16 Stream Flow Statistics for Dover River (Simulated Data from 1961 to

2007) ...................................................................................................................... 43 Table 17 Monthly Flows at the Dunkirk River Hydrometric Station 07DB001 ...................... 47 Table 18 Stream Flow Statistics for Dunkirk River (Pro-rated Data) .................................... 48 Table 19 Monthly Flows at Station 07DA017, Ells River Near the Mouth ............................ 52 Table 20 Stream Flow Statistics for Ells River (Simulated Data from 1961 to 2007) ........... 53 Table 21 Mean Annual Sediment Yields of Large Basins Gauged by Environment

Canada .................................................................................................................. 57 Table 22 Summary of Hydrologic Characteristics of Watersheds within the Aquatics

Regional Study Area .............................................................................................. 58

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1 Project Location ....................................................................................................... 2 Figure 2 Location of Aquatics Regional Study Areas, Climate Monitoring Stations

and Hydrometric Stations ........................................................................................ 7 Figure 3 Existing Hydrometric Stations in the Vicinity of the Regional Study Area ............. 11 Figure 4 Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran Simulation Area ................................... 17 Figure 5 Comparisons of Measured and Predicted Mean Summer Air

Temperatures ......................................................................................................... 20 Figure 6 Derived Monthly Air Temperatures for the Aquatics Regional Study Area

(Data from 1964 to 2007) ....................................................................................... 23 Figure 7 Derived Annual Mean Air Temperatures for the Aquatics Regional Study

Area (Data from 1964 to 2007) .............................................................................. 24 Figure 8 Comparison of Measured and Predicted Mean Summer Precipitation

(Data from 1961 to 2007) ....................................................................................... 26

Dover Commercial Project - iv - Hydrology Baseline Report December 2010

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Figure 9 Derived Characteristics of Monthly Mean Precipitation Summary for the Aquatics Regional Study Area (Data from 1961 to 2007) ..................................... 29

Figure 10 Derived Annual Mean Precipitation for the Aquatics Regional Study Area (Data from 1961 to 2007) ....................................................................................... 30

Figure 11 Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Curves for Fort McMurray Used for the Aquatics Regional Study Area .......................................................... 32

Figure 12 Derived Mean Monthly Lake Evaporation (1 m Lake Depth) and Areal Evapotranspiration for the Aquatics Regional Study Area (Data from 1964 to 2007) .................................................................................................................. 35

Figure 13 Monthly Flows MacKay River ................................................................................ 39 Figure 14 Flood Flows MacKay River .................................................................................... 40 Figure 15 Daily Flows MacKay River ..................................................................................... 41 Figure 16 Monthly Flows Dover River .................................................................................... 44 Figure 17 Flood Flows Dover River ....................................................................................... 45 Figure 18 Daily Flows Dover River ........................................................................................ 46 Figure 19 Monthly Flows Dunkirk River ................................................................................. 49 Figure 20 Flood Flows Dunkirk River ..................................................................................... 50 Figure 21 Daily Flows Dunkirk River ...................................................................................... 51 Figure 22 Monthly Flows Ells River ........................................................................................ 54 Figure 23 Flood Flows Ells River ........................................................................................... 55 Figure 24 Daily Flows Ells River ............................................................................................ 56

Dover Commercial Project - 1 - Hydrology Baseline Report December 2010

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1 INTRODUCTION

Dover Operating Corp. (Dover OPCO) proposes to develop and operate a commercial scheme for the recovery of bitumen from the McMurray Formation approximately 95 km northwest of Fort McMurray, Alberta. The project is located in Townships 92, 93, 94, 95 and 96, Ranges 15, 16, 17 and 18 West of the Fourth Meridian (W4M) as shown on Figure 1. This scheme will include the use of in situ Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) well pairs and two on-site steam generation and oil/water treatment plants. The project is submitted under the name of the Dover Commercial Project (the Project).

The Project is within a 170 section (43,500 ha) area of land called the Dover Leases. The Project will be developed in five phases with each phase having 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) of bitumen capacity. Phase 1 will consist of the Dover North Plant (DNP) and associated well pads and infrastructure generally to the north of the plant. The Initial Surface Development Area (ISDA) will include these Phase 1 facilities, the access corridor and the source water well system.

Currently, 11 well pads are planned for the Phase 1 development. The access corridor consists of a permanent 51-km-long access road and a 67-km-long utility Right-of-Way (ROW) extending southeast from the DNP to other projects currently proposed and under review by the regulators. The source water well system includes 12 well pads and 20 km of infield access corridor consisting of both a permanent road and a pipeline corridor. The majority of this access corridor will also be used for SAGD well pad development as the Project progresses.

Phase 2 will involve an expansion of the DNP to 100,000 bpd capacity and associated SAGD well pads and infrastructure. An additional 140 well pads are ultimately planned for the northern portion of the Project to support continued development of Phases 1 and 2 of the Project.

Phases 3 to 5 will include construction and progressive 50,000 bpd expansions of the Dover South Plant (DSP) along with production pads and associated infrastructure. A total of 375 SAGD well pads are planned in the southern portion of the Dover Leases.

Both the northern and southern portions of the Dover Leases will undergo progressive development wherein SAGD well pads will be constructed, operated for typically 8 to 12 years and then reclaimed. Materials recovered during reclamation of pads will be re-used for new well pads to the extent possible. This progressive development and reclamation will result in a likely scenario of 175 well pads being either in construction, operation, or reclamation at any one time when the Project is in full production.


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1.1 STUDY OBJECTIVES

The main objective of the surface water hydrologic study is to characterize the existing climate and surface water hydrologic conditions and to support the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). The baseline information that should be included according to the Terms of Reference (TOR) of the Project (AENV 2010) are as follows:

describe and map surface hydrology in the Aquatics Regional Study Area (RSA); and

identify surface water users.

The specific objectives of the surface water hydrologic study were to:

identify major climatic and hydrologic variables;

collect and analyze the regional and local climatic and hydrologic data and information;

calculate key statistical parameters for the major climatic and hydrologic variables by characterizing their temporal and spatial variations using regional data;

describe and characterize the baseline climatic and hydrologic conditions for the Aquatics RSA; and

present the results as a baseline for assessing future hydrologic changes that may be associated with the Project.

The climate and hydrology baseline results and information presented were based on:

review of published data on climate, lake levels and stream flows;

application of standard water balance and runoff equation (Jain and Singh 2003); and

a review of relevant applications and baseline reports from the region (AOSC 2009; Petro-Canada 1998, 2005; Southern Pacific 2009).

The variables selected for characterizing the baseline climatic and hydrologic conditions are shown in Table 1.


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Table 1 Summary of Climatic and Hydrologic Variables

Category Variables Purpose

climate

air temperature characterize variability of air temperature, which affects the seasonal variation of stream flows, lake evaporation, and basin evapotranspiration

precipitation characterize variability of precipitation, which affects the seasonal variation of stream flows, and lake water levels

lake evaporation and basin evapotranspiration

characterize variability of lake evaporation, which affects the lake water level; and basin evapotranspiration, which affects basin water yield

hydrology

stream flows including basin water yields

characterize variability of stream flow

lake inflow, outflows, storage volume and water levels

characterize variability of lake water levels

surface water withdrawals licenses

characterize the current level of authorized (i.e., currently licensed) water withdrawals from various waterbodies in the Aquatics RSA

flood flows for local small drainage areas

characterize flood flow conditions in the Aquatics LSA to provide input for design of various water management facilities

basin and lake water balance

characterize water balance of watersheds and significant lakes in the Aquatics RSA

basin sediment yield characterize variability of natural basin sediment yields

stream geomorphology characterize stream characteristics within the Aquatics RSA


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2 PHYSICAL SETTING

2.1 AQUATICS REGIONAL STUDY AREA

The Aquatics RSA was based on potential effects from construction and operation of the Project on flows and water levels in watersheds in which the Project is located, including surface water/groundwater interactions. This RSA also contains other projects and activities that are considered in the Baseline and Planned Development Cases.

The Aquatics RSA is shown on Figure 2 and includes the following major watersheds and lakes:

Ells River basin (effective drainage area of 2,450 km2): The Ells River originates from Gardiner Lakes, and drains south (immediately east of the Project) and then to the east before discharging to the Athabasca River about 42 km east of the Project. The drainage for Joslyn Creek is within the Ells River basin but is 30 km to the east and it joins the Ells River very close to the mouth. Since this drainage is affected by proposed oil sands mining developments in its downstream reach, it was excluded from the RSA.

MacKay River basin (effective drainage area of 5,570 km2): The MacKay River basin drains the western and southern portions of the RSA. The MacKay River basin includes the Dover, Dunkirk, and MacKay sub-basins. The Dover River drains the majority of the southern Lease Area. The western of the Project area is drained by the Dunkirk River, a south-flowing tributary of the MacKay River at the upper MacKay River watershed. The MacKay River generally flows to the northeast before discharging into the Athabasca River about 45 km east of the Project. The Dover and Dunkirk rivers intersect at approximately 20 km and 90km upstream of the Athabasca River confluence, respectively.

Gardiner Lakes (Upper Gardiner Lake and Lower Gardiner Lake, total surface area of 50 km2): Gardiner Lakes are the headwaters for the Ells River, with the river originating at the outflow of Lower Gardiner Lake.

Namur Lake (surface area of 37 km2), Big Island Lake (surface area of 16 km2) and Sand Lake (surface area of 14 km2): These three large lakes are located in the headwaters of the Ells River system and all drain to the Gardiner Lakes.

The total area of the Aquatics RSA is approximately 796,000 ha. Namur Lake and Gardiner Lakes are considered to be regionally important as are the Ells and MacKay rivers (Westworth 1994).


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The northern portion of the RSA is comprised generally of uplands sloping to the northwest towards the Birch Mountains. This area is characterized by numerous small streams and drainages flowing to the southeast. A secondary direction for streams is along glacial striations that run from southwest to northeast. The southern portion of the RSA tends to have less variation in topography and a greater occurrence of wetlands. Many of the smaller unnamed streams tend to be poorly defined.

2.2 LOCAL STUDY AREA

The Local Study Area (LSA) is based on the full Project footprint and the access corridors (Figure 2). The LSA includes the portions of the upper Ells, Dover and Dunkirk river basins encompassed by the main development and the access corridor, as well as the portion of the MacKay River sub-basin within the access corridor.

The surface water hydrology modelling node locations have been selected to coincide with the LSA boundaries and represent the immediate off-site flows associated with the Project development. The LSA contributes flows to the Ells River basin and the Dover and Dunkirk Rivers sub-basins contribute their flows to the MacKay River, as shown on Figure 2.

Topographic feature names used in this report are drawn from several sources. Feature names from National Topographic Service 1:50,000 maps were used wherever possible, but several important features in this report were drawn from other sources including facilities around the Project and commonly used names on lakes within the aquatics RSA.


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3 METHODOLOGY

3.1 CLIMATE

The climate in the aquatics RSA is characterized as continental with four distinct seasons. The summer months (May to August) are as typically warm and moist as result of air masses advancing from the south. The winter months (November to February) are often under the influence of cold Arctic air from the north.

Analyses were completed on the following climate variables that affect surface water hydrology:

air temperature;

precipitation;

evaporation; and

evapotranspiration.

3.1.1 Data Sources

The climate data were compiled from the regional climate monitoring stations in or near the aquatics RSA including Environment Canada Monitoring Stations and Alberta Sustainability Resources Development (ASRD) lookout stations, which primarily collect summer (May to August) temperature and rainfall data (Figure 2 and Table 2).

Table 2 Climate Monitoring Stations in the Regional Study Area Vicinity

Name Climate Station ID Elevation

[masl] Period of Record

From To

Birch Mountain Lookout Station 3060700 853.4 1960 2007

Buckton Lookout Station 3060922 792.5 1965 2007

Ells Lookout Station 3062300 573 1961 2007

Fort McMurray Airport Station (a) 3062693 369.1 1953 2008

Livock Lookout Station 3063930 579.1 1965 2007

Chipewyan Lakes Lookout Station 3071555 563.9 1967 2007

Legend Lookout Station 3073792 911.4 1962 2007

(a) This stations fall outside of the extent of the map shown on Figure 2.

Source: Environment Canada (2010b, Internet Site).


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The Fort McMurray Airport Station is the closest station to the aquatics RSA that provides continuous year-round monitoring and relatively long uninterrupted periods of record.

3.1.2 Methods of Data Analysis

Historical data were analyzed and summarized using statistical techniques, and annual seasonal and monthly statistics of the climate variables were derived to describe the climatic conditions in the aquatics RSA.

3.1.3 Quality Assurance and Quality Control

Quality Assurance and Quality Control (QA/QC) procedures were implemented for field data collection, historical data compilation and data analysis.

Several government agencies and industry groups collect historical climate data that are useful for characterizing the local and regional climate. Before analyzing historical data, the following QA/QC procedures were implemented:

identification of missing data (e.g., months with several days of missing data were coded as missing data and were removed from further analysis); and

identification and verification of unusual deviations from, or abrupt changes in average values and other statistical values.

Each data series was checked to meet the standard criteria for such analyses. The QA/QC included the following steps:

data entry was checked and reviewed for errors;

data were transposed from distant locations to the Project only after checking for similarities (such as precipitation pattern) and differences (such as precipitation variation with elevation);

data series were tested for statistical homogeneity, trend and independence;

the goodness-of-fit of theoretical probability distribution functions to the data series was tested using standard statistical methods;

results were compared to results of previous work in the region; and

results of analyses were reviewed by staff not involved in the analyses.


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3.2 HYDROLOGY

The long-term stream flow data from hydrometric stations within the aquatics RSA were analyzed and the results were used to describe the regional variability in basin runoff and stream flow. Additionally, historic stream sediment measurements available for MacKay River, Ells River, Dover River and Dunkirk River were analyzed to derive the mean annual sediment yields for the aquatics RSA.

3.2.1 Data Sources

3.2.1.1 Flow and Lake Level Data

Data used for hydrologic analyses were compiled from four stream flow monitoring stations operated by Water Survey of Canada (WSC). These stations are:

Dover River near the Mouth;

Dunkirk River near Fort McKay;

Ells River near the Mouth; and

MacKay River near Fort McKay.

The locations of these stations, as well as two additional stations in the vicinity of the Aquatics RSA are shown on Figure 2, and general information for all six stations is provided in Table 3. For clarity, Environment Canada’s Dunkirk River near Fort McKay station which is located more than 100 km upstream of Fort McKay, will be referred to as the Dunkirk River station for the remainder of this report.

The WSC also operates two lake water level stations in the region including Eaglenest Lake and Namur Lake. However, the data from these two stations are sparse and considered insufficient for describing water level conditions at these two lakes.

In addition, data is available from 12 local hydrometric stations within the Aquatics RSA and three stations just outside the Aquatics RSA, which were monitored in 2008 for an adjacent project. A summary of station attributes and monitoring for these watercourse and waterbody stations within the aquatics RSA is presented in Table 4. Station locations are shown on Figure 3.


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Table 3 Hydrometric Stations Operated by Water Survey of Canada Near the Regional Study Area

Station Name Station Number

Location Period of Record Used Watershed

Area [km2]

Mean Seasonal

Flow (Mar-Oct)

[m³/s]

Mean Seasonal

Runoff (Mar-Oct)

[mm]

Status Latitude Longitude Start Year End Year

Number of Years

Dover River Near the Mouth 07DB002 57.1700 111.7939 1975 1977 2 963 2.06 45.3 Discontinued

Dunkirk River 07DB003 56.8556 112.7111 1975 1979 4 1,570 5.64 76.0 Discontinued

Ells River near the Mouth 07DA017 57.2678 111.7142 1975 1986 11 2,450 9.83 85.0 Discontinued

MacKay River Near Fort McKay 07DB001 57.2103 111.6950 1972 2008 36 5,569.3 20.15 76.6 Active

Joslyn Creek near Fort MacKay 07DA016 57.2742 111.7417 1975 1993 18 257 0.90 74.1 Discontinued

MacKay River above Dunkirk River

07DB005 56.7597 112.6139 1983 1991 8 1,010 3.54 74.3 Discontinued

Source: Environment Canada 2010a, internet site.


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Table 4 Local Watercourses and Waterbodies Within the Aquatics Regional Study Area Measured in 2008

Stations Station Type Easting Northing Elevation

Range [masl]

Median Elevation

[masl]

Drainage Area [km2]

Bankfull Width

Monitoring Parameters

Period of Record (2008)

Continuous Water Level

Manual Flow or Water Level

D-43-S Watercourse 419223 6320554 435 to 602 511 376.8 8.6 Continuous water level, manual flow

May 13 to October 7

Mar 4, May 13, Jun 22, Jul 18, Aug 26, Oct 7


May 13 to October 6

Mar 4, May 13, May 25, Jun 22, Jul 19, Aug 26, Sept 25, Oct 6

TH-1-S Watercourse 428834 6306349 465 to 520 496 161.4 6.5 Continuous water level, manual flow

May 13 to October 7

May 13, May 25, Jun 22, Jul 26, Aug 27, Oct 1, Oct 7

TH-3-S Watercourse 422103 6295169 470 to 520 502 216.4 n/a Continuous water level, manual flow

May 13 to October 8

May 13, May 27, Jun 22, Jul 26, Aug 27, Oct 1, Oct 8


May 26 to October 7

May 26, Jul 15, Aug 1, Aug 27, Oct 2, Oct 7


May 26 to October 7

May 26, Jul 15, Aug 1, Aug 27, Oct 2, Oct 7

TH-9-L Waterbody 438976 6295601 514 n/a n/a n/a Continuous and manual water level

May 13 to October 8

May 14, May 24, Jun 24, Aug 27, Oct 8

TH-20-L Waterbody 442349 6276708 464 n/a n/a n/a Continuous and manual water level

May 13 to October 8


Thickwood Fen

Waterbody 438587 6289195 511 n/a n/a n/a Continuous and manual water level

June 23 to October 8

June 23, Aug 27, Oct 7

Wetlands Waterbody 405775 6314412 495 n/a n/a n/a Continuous and manual water level

May 14 to October 8

May 14, Jun 22, Aug 26, Oct 7


May 12 to October 6


D-57-S Watercourse 395797 6302067 484 to 844 641 1,469.0 27.3 Continuous water level, manual flow

May 12 to October 6

May 12, Jun 21, Jul 23, Aug 26, Sept 12, Oct 2, Oct 6

D-15-L Waterbody 382260 6323575 517 n/a n/a n/a Continuous and manual water level

May 12 to October 8


D-29-L Waterbody 397395 6341327 531 n/a n/a n/a Continuous and manual water level

May 12 to October 8



May 12 to October 6


n/a = Not applicable.

Note: Data for this table were obtained from the MacKay River Commercial Project Hydrology EIA Section (AOSC 2009).


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3.2.1.2 Sediment Data

The Total Suspended Solids (TSS) concentration data used for analysis were compiled from the four river monitoring stations operated by WSC as described in Sections 3.2.1.1 and 4.2.2.

3.2.1.3 Surface Water Withdrawal Licences

The surface water resources within the aquatics RSA are partially allocated under surface water withdrawal licenses issued by Alberta Environment (AENV) pursuant of the Water Act.

The total volume of water currently allocated within each watershed based on license data provided by AENV is summarized in Table 5.


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Table 5 Alberta Environment Water Licenses Within the Aquatics Regional Study Area

Applicant Project Water Source Type of Water Source Quantity

[m³/year] SpecificPurpose

Licenced Date

Expiry Date Surficial Groundwater

Fort McMurray Advisory Council

Fort MacKay/Municipal/Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo- F16192

Ells River √

30,840 Urban November 27, 1990 n/a

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo

Fort MacKay/Municipal/Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo- F16192

Ells River √

250,000 Urban October 7, 2005 October 6, 2030

Suncor Energy Inc. Fort MacKay/O&S (Oil Sands - SAGD) Suncor Energy Inc - F160285

Surface Runoff √

140,555 Injection June 30, 2009 May 1, 2019

PTI Group Inc. Fort McMurray/PTI Environmental Service

Ells River √

38,820 Camps March 2, 2008 November 30, 2009

Suncor Energy Inc. Petro-Canada Inc, WR, 25016 Unnamed Aquifer - Unclassified

√ 1,230 Camps March 13, 1990 n/a

Suncor Energy Inc. Fort MacKay/O&G (Oil Sands SAGD) Suncor energy Inc-F60285

Unnamed Aquifer - Potable

√ 511,000 Injection August 15, 2002 August 31, 2010

Suncor Energy Inc. Fort MacKay/O&G (Oil Sands SAGD) Petro-Canada - F20992

Unnamed Aquifer - Unclassified

√ 677,354 Injection December 15, 2008 December 14, 2013

Suncor Energy Inc. Fort MacKay/O&G (Oil Sands SAGD) -Suncor energy Inc-F60285


√ 25,550 Other July 23, 2008 January 22, 2013

Paramount Energy Operating Corp.

Chipewyan Lake/O&G/Paramount Energy Operating Corp - F00253181


√ 2,500 Other February 11, 2009 February 10, 2029



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3.2.2 Methods of Data Analysis

3.2.2.1 Regional Stream Flow Analysis

Standard statistical methods were used in the regional analysis to derive long-term averages, extremes and probability of occurrence of extreme events, based on theoretical probability distributions. The Consolidated Frequency Analysis program, developed by Environment Canada (1993), was used to derive frequency estimates of peak flows. The frequency analysis computer program, developed by Dr. G. Kite (Kite 1999), was used to derive frequency estimates of low flows.

3.2.2.2 Hydrologic Model Calibration and Simulation Analysis

The Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) model, developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA 2000), was used to generate simulated hydrologic data series for streams in the aquatics RSA. Modelling is necessary because most of the stream flow monitoring stations in aquatics RSA have short-term data or no data at all. The short-term data series, while valuable for calibrating a hydrologic model, are insufficient for deriving reliable statistics without extending the database by modelling.

The HSPF model was calibrated previously by AGRA (1996) and Golder (1997). The model was re-calibrated in 2002 (Golder 2003) based on updated climatic and hydrologic data to 2000 and available surficial geological information. Hydrologic model parameters were derived for the Oil Sands Region using a systematic approach to calibrate the HSPF model for various surficial geologic conditions and land types. The model calibration accounted for the effects of precipitation that varied spatially across the Oil Sands Region. The HSPF model has been used on several recent EIAs in the Oil Sands Region, including Suncor Energy Inc.’s Voyageur and South Tailings Pond projects, Shell Canada Ltd.’s Jackpine and Muskeg River Mine Expansion projects, the Imperial Oil Resources Ventures Limited Kearl Oil Sands Project and Canadian Natural Resources Limited’s Horizon Oil Sands Project.

The HSPF model for the Oil Sands Region was recalibrated for the Total E&P Joslyn Ltd. Joslyn North Mine EIA Update (Golder 2010) for simulating flows from the Ells River and Joslyn Creek watersheds. This model recalibration was a modification of the previous regional calibration of HSPF Model (Golder 2003) to capture the local conditions in the Ells River and Joslyn Creek watersheds. The recalibration parameters derived for the Ells River for various land types were used for estimating flows from the Dover River watershed with similar land types. The HSPF model simulation area is presented on Figure 4.


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3.2.2.3 Hydrologic Model Validation

The parameters of the calibrated regional HSPF model were validated using measured runoff data from basins with periods of record of 19 years or greater. The regional calibration report documented the results of model validation using the streamflow records at the Steepbank River Environment Canada Hydrometric Station and the Joslyn Creek Environment Canada Hydrometric Station (Golder 2003).

In addition, the recalibrated model was used to simulate daily flows at the Dover River Near the Mouth Environment Canada Hydrometric Station (WSC-07DB002), and the simulated flows were compared to the observed flows. The comparisons between the recorded and simulated daily and mean monthly flows for Dover River are provided in Section 4.2.

3.2.2.4 Sediment Analysis

The historical stream sediment measurements available for the large watersheds in the Oil Sands Region were analyzed to derive the annual sediment yields. Watershed drainage areas ranged from 963 km2 (Dover River) to 5,570 km2 (Ells River).

The annual sediment yields were estimated as follows:

the daily mean sediment load was determined by multiplying the sediment concentration by the daily mean water volume;

the daily sediment volume was determined by dividing daily mean sediment load by sediment bulk density; and

the basin’s daily sediment yield was determined by dividing daily sediment volume by basin drainage area, with annual sediment yield obtained by multiplying the daily sediment yield by 365.25, that is, the average number of days in a year accounting for leap years.


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4 RESULTS

4.1 CLIMATE

4.1.1 Air Temperature

The air temperature characteristics in the aquatics RSA were based on records from the Fort McMurray Airport climate station, a climate station at Mildred Lake, and seasonal air temperature measurements from six ASRD lookout stations within or near the aquatics RSA as shown on Figure 2. The Ells Lookout station is within the aquatics RSA and is closest to the LSA.

Table 6 Measured Summer Air Temperatures

Station Elevation

[masl] Latitude

Mean Monthly Temperature [°C]

Mean Summer Temperature(a)

[°C] May June July August

Birch Mountain Lookout Station 853.4 57.72 7.25 12.36 14.55 12.97 11.78

Buckton Lookout Station 792.5 57.87 7.00 12.05 14.26 13.00 11.58

Ells Lookout Station 573 57.18 9.31 13.69 15.72 14.09 13.20

Fort McMurray Airport Station 369.1 56.65 9.61 14.18 16.64 14.98 13.85

Livock Lookout Station 579.1 56.47 9.13 13.33 15.41 13.98 12.96

Chipewyan Lakes Lookout Station 563.9 57.00 9.38 13.74 15.81 14.22 13.29

Mildred Lake 310 57.08 10.13 15.53 17.91 15.86 14.86

Legend Lookout Station 911.4 57.45 7.68 12.12 14.24 12.88 11.73

(a) Mean summer temperature is based on the average of mean monthly temperature from May to August.

A regression analysis between measured mean summer temperature, elevation and latitude for the climate stations in the region (Table 6), was conducted to determine a station suitable to provide representative air temperature data for the aquatics RSA. The resulting regression equation is as follows:

Predicted Mean Summer Temperature = [-0.0052 x Elevation] + [0.0598 x Latitude] + 12.71; r2 = 0.94

where temperature is in C; elevation is in masl; latitude is in decimal degrees; and r2 is the coefficient of correlation.

A comparison of the measured data and predicted values using the regression equation for each station is shown on Figure 5.

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FIGURE: 5


THE HISTORICAL RECORD FOR EACH STATION WAS USED.NOTE

COMPARISONS OF MEASUREDAND PREDICTED MEAN

SUMMER AIR TEMPERATURES


Golder Associates

Using the regression equation, the predicted mean summer temperature for the aquatics RSA (mean elevation of 544.438 masl and mean latitude of 57.18', N) is 13.3C. The mean summer temperature for the Ells Lookout station (mean elevation of 573 masl and mean latitude of 57.18' N) estimated from the regression equation is 13.2C. The air temperature data from Ells Lookout station were therefore used to represent the summer temperature variability for the aquatics RSA. Thus, the mean summer temperature estimate for the aquatics RSA is 13.2C.

The estimated mean summer temperature (13.2C) for the aquatics RSA was compared to temperatures predicted by the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) spatial climate model. The PRISM model is a hybrid statistical-geographical model that uses point data, a digital elevation model and other spatial data sets to generate gridded estimates of annual and monthly climate elements (Climate Source 2001, internet site). The historical data record used by the PRISM model is limited to 1961 to 1990 for Western Canada.

Using the PRISM model, a 2 km x 2 km grid was generated for the aquatics RSA and the mean summer temperature was generated at the centre of each grid cell. The resulting mean summer temperature within the aquatics RSA ranged from 12C to 14C with an average of 13C, a difference of 0.2C from the estimated value of 13.2C for the aquatics RSA. This difference is less than 2%, therefore, the temperatures predicted by the Ells Lookout measurements are considered sufficient for the temperature analysis.

No winter temperature data are available for the aquatics RSA. Regional winter temperature data are available only for the Fort McMurray Airport station. To derive the characteristics of temperature regime within the aquatics RSA, the temperature data for the months of September to April from the Fort McMurray Airport station were analyzed. A comparison of mean summer temperatures (Table 6) shows that the Ells Lookout Station is colder than Fort McMurray by -0.65C. Thus, a net adjustment factor for transferring winter temperature data from Fort McMurray Airport station to Ells Lookout station would be -0.65C.

The summer air temperature data from Ells Lookout station and the derived winter air temperature data based on Fort McMurray Airport station were used to characterize the temperature regime in the aquatics RSA. The derived monthly and annual air temperature statistics for the aquatics RSA are presented in Table 7 and Figures 6 and 7. Based on the derived temperature series for the aquatics RSA, the mean annual temperature was estimated to be 0.4C.


Golder Associates

Table 7 Derived Maximum, Mean and Minimum Monthly Air Temperature Statistics for the Regional Study Area (Data from 1964 to 2007)

Month

Derived Air Temperatures(a)

[°C]

Maximum Mean Minimum

January -8.0 -18.2 -29.4

February -3.2 -13.4 -25.0

March -1.0 -6.9 -16.2

April 9.6 3.0 -2.8

May 12.8 9.3 5.1

June 16.4 13.7 11.3

July 19.0 15.7 13.0

August 18.9 14.1 10.8

September 12.1 8.8 3.7

October 5.5 2.6 -2.3

November -1.9 -8.2 -15.6

December -7.7 -15.4 -23.0

(a) September to April air temperatures were derived using the Fort McMurray Airport Station.

The mean monthly temperatures in the aquatics RSA typically drop below freezing by November and remain below zero until March (Figure 5). The warmest month of the year is July with an average temperature of 15.7°C. The coldest month is January with an average temperature of -18.2°C.

Figure 6 shows the derived annual mean air temperatures for the aquatics RSA (using Ells Lookout summer and Fort McMurray winter temperature data). The data shows a statistically significant increasing trend (= 0.05) in annual mean air temperature over the last 43 years (equal to approximately 0.06C per year).

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DERIVED MONTHLY AIR TEMPERATURESFOR THE AQUATICS STUDY AREA

(DATA FROM 1964 TO 2007)

y = 0.0554x - 109.99

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Linear Trend Line

FIGURE: 7


DERIVED ANNUAL MEAN AIRTEMPERATURE FOR THE AQUATICS

STUDY AREA (DATA FROM 1964 TO 2007)


Golder Associates

4.1.2 Precipitation

Precipitation varies with elevation and latitude, among other influencing factors. Analysis of the spatial variation of precipitation in the aquatics RSA was based on records from the Fort McMurray Airport climate station and seasonal precipitation measurements from seven Environment Canada lookout stations in or near the aquatics RSA are shown on Figure 2. The Ells lookout station is within the aquatics RSA and is the closest station to the LSA.

The measured mean monthly and seasonal values of the summer (May to August) precipitation at each of the stations and the mean annual precipitation at the airport station are summarized in Table 8.

Table 8 Measured Summer Precipitation

Station Elevation

[masl] Latitude

Mean Monthly Precipitation [mm]

Mean Summer Precipitation(a)

[mm] May June July August

Birch Mountain Lookout Station

853.4 57.72 46.49 87.74 105.92 71.03 311.2

Buckton Lookout Station 792.5 57.87 39.15 88.91 105.45 64.03 297.5

Ells Lookout Station 573 57.18 37.40 67.96 79.99 58.82 244.2

Fort McMurray Airport Station

369.1 56.65 34.70 66.48 77.22 67.98 246.4

Livock Lookout Station 579.1 56.47 50.99 84.79 93.26 65.71 294.7

Chipewyan Lakes Lookout Station

563.9 57.00 44.46 67.79 78.67 58.06 249.0

Mildred Lake 310 57.08 32.10 56.37 72.98 66.19 227.6

Legend Lookout Station 911.4 57.45 39.54 74.52 97.87 65.93 277.9

(a) Mean summer annual precipitation is based on the total precipitation from May through August.

A regression analysis between the measured mean summer precipitation, elevation and latitude for the lookout and climate stations (Table 8) was conducted to determine a station suitable for transfer of precipitation data to the Aquatics RSA. The resulting regression equation is as follows:

Predicted Mean Summer Precipitation = [0.1334 x Elevation]+[-14.5269 x Latitude] +1016.6109, r2 = 0.65

where: precipitation is in mm; elevation is in masl; and latitude is in decimal degrees; and r2 is the coefficient of correlation.

A comparison of measured data and predicted values using the regression equation for each station is shown on Figure 8.

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COMPARISON OF MEASURED ANDPREDICTED MEAN SUMMER PRECIPITATION


THE HISTORICAL RECORD FOR EACH STATION WAS USED.NOTE


Golder Associates

Using the regression equation, the predicted mean summer precipitation for the aquatics RSA (mean elevation of 544.28 masl and mean latitude of 57.18' N) is 259 mm. The mean summer precipitation for the Ells Lookout station (mean elevation of 573 masl and mean latitude of 57.18’ N) estimated from the regression equation is 262 mm. The predicted mean summer precipitation amounts for the aquatics RSA and Ells are about 5.9% and 7.4%, respectively, greater than Ells’ measured value of 244 mm. Summer precipitation is normally variable spatially and the latitude parameter may not be able to capture the spatial variability completely. Nevertheless, the differences are considered small that the precipitation data from Ells Lookout station were used to represent the summer precipitation for the aquatics RSA. Thus, the mean summer precipitation estimate for the aquatics RSA is 244 mm.

The estimated mean summer precipitation (244 mm) for the aquatics RSA was compared to precipitation predicted by the PRISM spatial climate model. As with the model for temperature, the precipitation estimates provided by PRISM are developed using a hybrid statistical-geographical model that uses point data, a digital elevation model and other spatial data sets to generate gridded estimates of annual and monthly values. The historical data record used by the PRISM model is limited to 1961 to 1990 for Western Canada.

Using the PRISM model, a 2 km x 2 km grid was generated for the aquatics RSA and the mean summer precipitation was generated at the centre of each grid cell. The resulting mean summer precipitation within the aquatics RSA ranged from 220 to 330 mm with an average of 250 mm. The difference of about 2.4% from the estimated value of 244 mm for the aquatics RSA was considered to be relatively small, and the use of the regression equation for the estimation of precipitation is therefore considered appropriate.

No winter precipitation data are available for the Aquatics RSA. Regional winter precipitation data are available only for the Fort McMurray Airport station. To derive the characteristics of precipitation regime within the aquatics RSA, the precipitation data for the months of September to April from the Fort McMurray Airport station were analyzed. A comparison of mean summer precipitation amounts (Table 8) shows that Ells receives about 0.9% less precipitation than Fort McMurray airport station (i.e., ratio of mean summer precipitation at Ells to that at Fort McMurray is 0.99). Thus, a net multiplication factor for transferring winter precipitation data from Fort McMurray Airport station to Ells Lookout station would be 0.99. This multiplier of 0.99 was then used to transfer the measured winter precipitation data from Fort McMurray Airport station to represent the winter precipitation variability in the aquatics RSA.


Golder Associates

The summer precipitation for the Aquatics RSA was obtained from data from Ells Lookout. The derived precipitation statistics are presented in Table 9 and Figures 9 and 10. The mean monthly precipitation in the aquatics RSA varied from 15.2 mm in February to about 80 mm in July (Table 9 and Figure 7). The estimated mean annual precipitation for the aquatics RSA is 425 mm.

Table 9 Derived Monthly Precipitation Statistics for the Aquatics RSA (1961 to 2007)

Month

Derived Precipitation (a)

[mm]

Maximum Mean Minimum

January 47.3 18.6 5.4

February 47.4 15.2 3.2

March 37.4 17.0 4.0

April 52.0 20.9 0.2

May 95.0 37.4 5.4

June 154 68.0 12.3

July 213 80.0 19.0

August 130 58.8 10.0

September 127 48.5 12.1

October 83.0 27.3 0.5

November 50.2 22.4 5.9

December 52.5 19.6 5.7

(a) September to April precipitation was derived by adjusting the Fort McMurray Airport Station recorded data with a multiplier of 0.99; May to August precipitation data were from Ells Lookout station.

The temporal variation of the derived annual total precipitation for the aquatics RSA is shown on Figure 9. The data show a statistically significant decreasing trend ( = 0.05) in annual precipitation over the last 47 years (equal to about 2 mm per year).

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DERIVED CHARACTERISTICS OF MONTHLY MEANPRECIPITATION SUMMARY FOR THE AQUATICS

STUDY AREA (DATA FROM 1961-2007)

y = -2.4179x + 5222

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FIGURE: 10


DERIVED ANNUAL MEAN PRECIPITATIONFOR THE AQUATIC STUDY AREA



Golder Associates

The Environment Canada rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) data were used as reference for the aquatics RSA. The IDF curves for the Fort McMurray Airport climate station shown in Figure 11 are based on data from 1966 to 1995 for the rainfall durations less than 24 hours, and based on data from 1944 to 2007 for longer rainfall durations for 2 to 10 days. Design rainfall depths (intensity x duration) are presented in Table 10.

Table 10 Design Rainfall Depths Used for the Local Study Area

Duration Rainfall Intensities

[mm]

2 year 5 year 10 year 25 year 50 year 100 year

5 min 5.10 7.40 8.90 10.80 12.30 13.70

10 min 7.00 9.90 11.80 14.10 15.90 17.70

15 min 8.30 11.70 14.00 16.80 18.90 21.00

30 min 10.60 15.30 18.40 22.40 25.30 28.30

1 hr 12.80 17.60 20.90 24.90 28.00 30.90

2 hr 16.60 22.70 26.80 31.90 35.80 39.50

6 hr 25.00 34.80 41.30 49.60 55.70 61.70

12 hr 31.70 44.80 53.50 64.40 72.50 80.60

24 hr 39.30 53.80 63.40 75.60 84.60 93.50

2 day 43.58 58.83 68.95 81.71 91.17 100.58

3 day 46.60 63.07 74.01 87.80 98.02 108.19

4 day 49.93 67.70 79.49 94.36 105.39 116.35

5 day 52.50 70.52 82.48 97.56 108.75 119.87

6 day 55.68 73.46 85.25 100.12 111.15 122.12

7 day 58.30 77.02 89.45 105.11 116.73 128.29

8 day 61.38 80.63 93.40 109.50 121.45 133.33

9 day 63.49 83.10 96.11 112.52 124.69 136.80

10 day 66.30 86.38 99.70 116.50 128.97 141.36

Notes: The data used for short-duration IDF (less and equal to 24 hour) are from 1966 to 1995.

The data used for longer duration IDF (from 2 to 10 days) are from 1944 to 2007.

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IDF data were obtained from Environment Canada (Pers. Comm., September 2010).The data used for short duration IDF (less and equal to 24 hr) are from 1966 to 1995.The data used for longer duration IDF ( from 2 to 8 days) are from 1944 to 2007.

FIGURE: 11


RAINFALL INTENSITY-DURATION-FREQUENCYCURVES (IDF) FOR FORT McMURRAY USED FOR

THE AQUATICS STUDY AREA


Golder Associates

4.1.3 Evaporation and Evapotranspiration

Evaporation and evapotranspiration are important hydrologic processes that influence the amount of runoff from a watershed by reducing the amount of precipitation available for surface runoff. Evapotranspiration rates and potential and actual lake evaporation rates for lake depths of 1 m, 2 m and 5 m (Table 11) were derived for the aquatics RSA using the following:

the Morton evaporation model (Morton et al. 1985);

recorded air temperature, from Ells Lookout station between 1964 to 2007; and

recorded relative humidity and derived solar radiation at the Fort McMurray Airport climate station between 1964 and 2005.

The derived solar radiation data are only available at the Fort McMurray Airport station. However, this parameter is generally less spatially variable than most climatic variables, and hence its use for calculating evaporation and evapotranspiration in the aquatics RSA was considered acceptable.

4.1.3.1 Evaporation

The Morton model has been used to calculate potential and actual lake evaporation. Average annual potential lake evaporation (1 m depth) in the aquatics RSA is estimated to be 817 mm (Table 11). The corresponding average annual actual lake evaporation (1 m depth) is estimated to be 608 mm, and is lower than potential evaporation because blowing air has a cooling effect over a large lake surface area. Lake evaporation is affected by lake depth and varies by month, peaking in July with an average monthly evaporation of approximately 133 mm. The greater heat capacity of a deep lake delays seasonal warming and cooling, which results in higher evaporation rates in the fall for a deep lake, as compared to a shallower lake (Table 11).

Given the large variability in topography, precipitation and air temperature in the aquatics RSA, it is expected that there will be variability in the mean annual actual lake evaporation.


Golder Associates

Table 11 Derived Monthly Evaporation and Evapotranspiration for the Regional Study Area (Data from 1964 to 2007)

Month

Evaporation(a)

[mm] Evapotranspiration(a)

[mm]

Potential Lake Potential Areal

(1 m Depth) 1 m Depth 2 m Depth 5 m Depth

January -4 -4 -4 -3 -4 -4

February -2 -2 -3 -4 -1 -1

March 16 14 8 0 24 16

April 78 59 48 21 83 44

May 131 103 96 67 130 69

June 158 122 120 105 155 80

July 174 133 133 128 168 78

August 148 107 112 122 139 46

September 90 57 67 89 71 15

October 29 22 28 51 21 10

November 2 2 4 18 0 0

December -4 -4 -3 0 -4 -4

Annual 817 608 606 596 783 349

(a) Based on synthesized RSA air temperature from Ells Lookout station, relative humidity and derived solar radiation at

Fort McMurray Airport, 1964 to 2007.

Notes: Negative values denote condensation, when water vapour changes to liquid or solid state.

4.1.3.2 Evapotranspiration

Average annual potential evapotranspiration is estimated to be 783 mm, which is almost as high as average annual potential evaporation. The actual areal evapotranspiration averages 349 mm per year, because of the limited water available in a basin for evaporation and the cooling effect of moving air. The peak mean monthly areal evapotranspiration occurs in July and is estimated to be 78 mm. The annual variability mean monthly lake evaporation for a lake depth of 1 m and areal evapotranspiration values derived for the aquatics RSA (Figure 12) were analyzed. Minor variation occurs in lake evaporation and areal evapotranspiration for return periods from 2 to 100 years, as shown in Table 12.

Table 12 Derived Annual Evaporation and Evapotranspiration for the Aquatics Regional Study Area

Return Period [Year]

Annual Lake Evaporation (1 m Lake Depth) [mm]

Annual Areal Evapotranspiration [mm]

2 606 348

5 638 374

10 657 388

20 673 399

50 691 412

100 704 421

Source: Derived and recorded climatic data at the Fort McMurray Airport climate station, 1964to 2007.

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FIGURE: 12


DERIVED MEAN MONTHLY LAKE EVAPORATION(1 m LAKE DEPTH) AND AREAL EVAPOTRASPIRATION

FOR THE AQUATICS STUDY AREA(DATA FROM 1964 TO 2007)


Golder Associates

4.2 HYDROLOGY

The long-term stream flow and lake level data from hydrometric stations within the aquatics RSA were analyzed and the results were used to describe the regional variability in the basin runoff stream flow and lake level. The historical stream sediment measurements available for the large gauge watersheds surrounding the aquatics RSA were analyzed to derive the mean annual sediment yields.

4.2.1 Flow Characteristics and Basin Water Yields

The hydrologic information in the following sections is based on data from the flow monitoring stations presented in Table 3 for the Ells, MacKay, Dover and Dunkirk rivers.

Water levels were measured at two WSC stations on Eaglenest and Namur lakes for the period of January 1976 to December 1978. No regional data are available for Gardiner Lakes. The period of record for these two stations is too short to be used for describing the long-term hydrologic conditions of the lakes. Furthermore, Gardiner, Eaglenest and Namur lakes are situated upstream of the watershed and the Project. It is unlikely that the Project development will affect these areas. For this reason, lake water balances were not prepared as part of the hydrology baseline.

The information for other small lakes within the aquatics RSA were obtained from the field survey conducted to support the MacKay River Commercial Project Application (AOSC 2009) and field surveys conducted during the aquatics program to support the Project.

4.2.1.1 MacKay River Watershed

The MacKay River is a tributary of the Athabasca River with an effective drainage area of 5,570 km2 at the hydrometric station MacKay River near Fort McKay (07DB003) (Figure 2). Two of its main tributaries are the Dover River, and the Dunkirk River. Flow statistical analysis for these two tributaries is presented in the following sections.

MacKay River

Stream flows in the MacKay River have been monitored during the open-water season from March to October since 1972. The ice-covered flows were recorded for the period of 1973 to 1987. The reported statistics in Table 13 are based on


Golder Associates

these available recorded data. Stream flows typically peak in May due to snowmelt, and then gradually recede. Peak flows can also occur in the summer due to significant rain events. The monthly mean flow characteristics at this station are based on 36 years of record. The flow characteristics are presented in Table 13 and Figures 13 to 15. The highest mean monthly measured flow was 41.7 m3/s (May) and the lowest mean monthly flow was 0.41 m3/s (February) as shown in Table 13.

The recorded daily flows in the river at the Environment Canada hydrometric station are lowest between January and March. The highest daily recorded flood discharge was 106 m3/s on July 17, 1975. Other stream flow statistics for the MacKay River are provided in Table 14.

Table 13 Monthly Flows at Station 07DB001, MacKay River Near Fort MacKay (Data from 1973 to 2008)

Month

Monthly Discharge [m³/s]

Measured(a) (1973 to 2008)

Minimum Mean Maximum

January 0.12 0.58 1.18

February 0.10 0.41 0.90

March 0.02 0.58 2.18

April 1.91 20.8 98.5

May 2.81 41.7 128

June 1.46 32.2 157

July 0.72 24.1 112

August 0.55 16.3 76.3

September 0.14 13.7 78.2

October 0.59 11.8 56.1

November 0.68 3.29 7.51

December 0.3 0.96 1.97

(a) Based on Environment Canada data collected for the MacKay River (Open water period from

March to October: 1973 to 2008; ice-covered period from November to February: 1973 to 1987).


Golder Associates

Table 14 Stream Flow Statistics for the MacKay River

Recurrence Interval

Maximum Daily Seasonal Flow

(1973-2008) [m3/s]

Minimum Daily Flow

(Oct - Apr, 1973-1986)

[m3/s]

Seasonal Average Flow/Yield

Wet Year Annual Runoff

(Water Yield)

Dry Year Annual Runoff

(Water Yield)

[m3/s] [mm] [mm] [mm]

Mean Annual

n/a n/a 16.9 95.7 n/a n/a

10-year 226.0 0.103 n/a n/a 138 24.5 25-year 281.0 0.015 n/a n/a 176 14.1 50-year 315.9 0.000 n/a n/a 204 8.4 100-year 346.0 0.000 n/a n/a 233 3.9

n/a = Not applicable. Notes: Maximum Daily Flows are based on seasonal recorded flow data from March to October for Station MacKay

River near Fort McKay1972 to 2008.

Minimum Daily Flows were estimated using the ice covered season from November to April for the period of record from 1973 to 1986 for Station MacKay River near Fort McKay.

Annual runoff was computed based on 245 days (i.e., March to October) and effective basin area of 5,569.3 km².

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MONTHLY FLOWS MacKAY RIVER

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FLOOD FLOWS MacKAY RIVER

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FIGURE: 15


DAILY FLOWS MacKAY RIVER


Golder Associates

Dover River Daily and Monthly Flows

The Dover River is a tributary of the MacKay River with an effective drainage area of 963 km2 at the hydrometric station Dover River near the Mouth (07DB002).

Stream flows in the Dover River were monitored near its mouth from 1975 to 1977. Since there are only two years of record, simulated flows were generated using the HSPF model to extend the record at this location. The results are presented in Tables 15 to 16 and Figures 16 to 18. The results in Table 16 are based on simulated flows from 1961 to 2007.

The simulated mean annual flow for the Dover River is approximately 1.41 m3/s with highest mean monthly flow of 5.35 m3/s in May and the lowest mean monthly flow of 0.19 m3/s in March.

Table 15 Monthly Flows at Station 07DB002, Dover River Near the Mouth

Month


Simulated (1961 to 2007) Minimum Mean Maximum

January 0.006 0.2 0.67 February 0.005 0.2 1.48 March 0.005 0.19 1.4 April 0.04 3.93 15.2 May 0.11 5.35 23.1 June 0.09 1.83 15.1 July 0.03 1.45 13.7 August 0.01 0.68 6.36 September 0.01 1.19 12.2 October 0.01 1.12 15.9 November 0.008 0.49 2.89 December 0.006 0.27 1.18


Golder Associates

Table 16 Stream Flow Statistics for Dover River (Simulated Data from 1961 to 2007)

Recurrence Interval

Maximum Daily Flow [m3/s]

Minimum Daily Flow

[m3/s]



(Water Yield)


(Water Yield)

[m3/s] [mm] [mm] [mm]

Mean Annual n/a n/a 1.4 46 n/a n/a

10-year 41.3 0.011 n/a n/a 96 10.6

25-year 51.8 0.000 n/a n/a 124 5.6

50-year 59.1 0.000 n/a n/a 143 3.0

100-year 66.0 0.000 n/a n/a 160 1.1


Notes: Based on HSPF simulated streamflow data from January to December for the period of 1961 to 2007.

Minimum Daily Flows were estimated using the ice covered season from November to April for the HSPF simulated period of record 1961 to 2007.

Annual runoff was computed based on 365 days (i.e., January to December) and effective basin area of 963 km².

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FIGURE: 16


MONTHLY FLOWS DOVER RIVER

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FLOOD FLOWS DOVER RIVER

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DAILY FLOWS DOVER RIVER


Golder Associates

Dunkirk River Daily and Monthly Flows

The Dunkirk River is a tributary of the MacKay River with an effective drainage area of 1,570 km2 at the Dunkirk River hydrometric station (07DB001).

Stream flows in the Dunkirk River were monitored from 1975 to 1979. Since the flow characteristics for the Dunkirk River are based on four years of record, simulated flows were generated by pro-rating flows from the MacKay River near Fort McKay station and multiplying them by an area ratio of 0.28 (between the Dunkirk River and the MacKay River drainage areas). These pro-rated flow characteristics are summarized in Table 17 and Figures 19 to 21.

The highest mean monthly measured flow of 10.1 m³/s (Table 17) occurred in September and the lowest mean monthly measured flow of 0.13 m³/s occurred in February. The highest mean pro-rated flow is 11.8 m³/s (May) and the lowest mean prorated flow is 0.12 m³/s (February).

Recorded daily flows in the Dunkirk River at the Environment Canada hydrometric station are lowest between January and March. The highest recorded daily discharge in the historical record was 33.7 m³/s observed on September 18, 1978.

The pro-rated flows for the Dunkirk River shown in Table 18 are based on the available measurements from the MacKay River near Fort McKay.

Table 17 Monthly Flows at the Dunkirk River Hydrometric Station 07DB001

Month


Measured (1975 to 1979) Pro-rated (1973 to 2008)

Minimum Mean Maximum Minimum Mean Maximum

January 0.03 0.14 0.27 0.03 0.17 0.33

February 0.06 0.13 0.2 0.03 0.12 0.26

March 0.04 0.16 0.23 0.004 0.16 0.62

April 2.28 7.16 16.1 0.54 5.86 27.8

May 4.7 9.14 15.5 0.79 11.8 36.1

June 4.35 5.53 7.23 0.41 9.08 44.3

July 1.97 4.45 7.77 0.20 6.79 31.5

August 1.46 2.05 2.45 0.15 4.6 21.5

September 0.95 10.1 23.1 0.04 3.87 22

October 1.9 6.53 14.8 0.17 3.32 15.8

November 0.41 1.4 2.5 0.19 0.93 2.12

December 0.07 0.28 0.62 0.08 0.27 0.56

Notes: Measured flows were obtained from station Dunkirk River (07DB001) for the period of 1975 to 1979.


Golder Associates

Table 18 Stream Flow Statistics for Dunkirk River (Pro-rated Data)

Recurrence Interval

Maximum Daily Seasonal Flow

(1973-2008) [m3/s]

Minimum Daily Flow

(Oct - Apr, 1973-1986)

[m3/s]



(Water Yield)


(Water Yield)

[m3/s] [mm] [mm] [mm]


10-year 63.7 0.029 n/a n/a 138 24.5

25-year 79.2 0.004 n/a n/a 176 14.1

50-year 89.1 0.000 n/a n/a 204 8.4

100-year 97.5 0.000 n/a n/a 233 3.9


Notes: Maximum Daily Flows are based on seasonal pro-rated flow data (from station MacKay River near Fort McKay) from March to October for the period of 1972 to 2008.

Minimum Daily Flows were estimated using the prorated ice covered season from November to April for the period of record from 1973 to 1986 for Station MacKay River near Fort McKay.

Annual runoff was computed based on 245 days (i.e., March to October) and effective basin area of 1,570 km2.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


Mea

n M

onth

ly D

isch

arge

(m

3 /s)

Month

Pro-rated Flow (1972 to 2008)

FIGURE: 19


MONTHLY FLOWS DUNKIRK RIVER

1

10

100

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Ann

ual M

axim

um D

aily

Dis

char

ge (

m3 /

s)



FIGURE: 20


FLOOD FLOWS DUNKIRK RIVER

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Dai

ly D

isch

arge

( m

3 /s)



FIGURE: 21


DAILY FLOWS DUNKIRK RIVER


Golder Associates

4.2.1.2 Ells River Daily and Monthly Flows

The Ells River is a tributary of the Athabasca River with an effective drainage area of 2,450 km2 at the hydrometric station Ells River near the Mouth (07DA017).

Stream flows for Ells River were monitored from 1975 to 1986. To extend the 11 year record at this location, simulated flows were generated using the HSPF model. The simulated flows were generated from 1961 to 2007. The results are presented in Tables 19 to 20 and Figures 22 to 24.

The mean monthly measured flow is highest in May and lowest in February with discharges of 25.3 m3/s and 0.92 m3/s, respectively. The highest mean monthly simulated flow is 28.6 m3/s (May) and the lowest mean monthly simulated flow is 1.17 m3/s (March).

Recorded daily flows in the river at the Environment Canada hydrometric station are lowest between January and March. The highest recorded discharge was 264 m3/s on May 5, 1985.

Table 19 Monthly Flows at Station 07DA017, Ells River Near the Mouth

Month


Measured (1975 to 1986) Simulated (1967 to 2007)

Minimum Mean Maximum Minimum Mean Maximum

January 0.26 1.22 2.25 0.19 1.5 3.02

February 0.08 0.92 1.7 0.36 1.33 4.2

March 0.04 0.92 1.63 0.47 1.17 2.95

April 3.15 7.74 21.5 0.9 8.65 31.8

May 3.14 25.3 76.7 3.06 28.6 86.7

June 2.28 14.9 47 0.54 13.5 52.7

July 1.71 7.95 21.4 0.45 11.5 38.9

August 1.79 7.4 17.9 0.26 8.23 41.1

September 0.62 8.2 26.9 0.28 6.56 41.4

October 0.57 6.26 20.7 0.28 4.87 31.6

November 0.5 3.13 6.81 0.20 2.68 9.78

December 0.44 2.07 4.51 0.17 1.84 4.4


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Table 20 Stream Flow Statistics for Ells River (Simulated Data from 1961 to 2007)

Recurrence Interval

Maximum Daily Flow [m3/s]

Minimum Daily Flow [m3/s]

Average Flow/Yield Wet Year Annual

Runoff (Water Yield)


(Water Yield)

[m3/s] [mm] [mm] [mm]


10-year 131.4 0.484 n/a n/a 169 37.0

25-year 177.4 0.341 n/a n/a 208 23.4

50-year 214.6 0.257 n/a n/a 238 15.8

100-year 254.1 0.185 n/a n/a 266 9.6


Notes: Based on HSPF simulated streamflow data from January to December for the period of 1961 to 2007.

Minimum Daily Flows were estimated using the ice covered season from November to April for the HSPF simulated period of record 1961 to 2007.

Annual runoff was computed based on 365 days (i.e., January to December) and effective basin area of 963 km².

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


Mea

n M

onth

ly D

isch

arge

(m

3 /s)

Month


FIGURE: 22


MONTHLY FLOWS ELLS RIVER

1

10

100

1000

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Ann

ual M

axim

um D

aily

Dis

char

ge (

m3 /

s)



FIGURE: 23


FLOOD FLOWS ELLS RIVER

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Dai

ly D

isch

arge

( m

3 /s)



FIGURE: 24


DAILY FLOWS ELLS RIVER


Golder Associates

4.2.2 Basin Sediment Yield

Basin sediment yield data for the aquatics RSA are limited. The available information consists of intermittent suspended sediment concentration data for the four rivers within the aquatics RSA, as shown in Table 21. Sediment data collected for these watercourses refers only to suspended sediment. No data exist for bed material characteristics or bed load volumes. Sediment yields in Table 21 are based on Carson and Associates’ Assessment of Sediment Transport Data and Sediment Budget Analysis for the Peace-Slave River System (Carson and Associates 1991)

In general, TSS data are limited to concentrations and grain size distributions. The grain size distribution data are used in computing the sediment bulk density that is used in determining the sediment yield (Canadian Bulk Density Calculator 2010, internet site). The scarcity of grain size data are primarily the result of relatively low sediment concentrations. Bottom withdrawal tube analysis, the usual method for grain size determination of the suspended load, becomes increasingly unreliable at concentrations less than about 300 mg/L. Sediment yields for the Dover and Dunkirk Rivers are not included in Table 21 because of the short period of record of the TSS sample measurements that did not allow for an accurate result analysis.

Table 21 Mean Annual Sediment Yields of Large Basins Gauged by Environment Canada

Basin Name Station Number

Effective Area [km²]

Period of Record Used Number of Samples

Mean Annual Sediment

Yield [mm]

Maximum Concentration

[mg/L] Start year End Year

Dover River 07DB002 963 Jun 1977 Oct 1977 5 n/a 8

Dunkirk River 07DB003 1,570 1977 1978 14 n/a 42

Ells River 07DA017 2,450 1976 1983 56 0.0204 1,500

MacKay River 07DB001 5,569 1975 1983 50 0.0134 714

n/a = Not available.


Golder Associates

5 SUMMARY

Climate

Climate variables characterized in this baseline study include air temperature, precipitation, evaporation and evapotranspiration because these are the primary factors affecting baseline hydrology. The main source of the climate data included historical records of Environment Canada stations and seasonal records of ASRD Lookout stations.

The key mean annual climate parameters estimated for the aquatics RSA are:

air temperature : 0.4 °C;

precipitation : 425 mm;

lake evaporation (1 m depth) : 608 mm; and

basin evapotranspiration (areal) : 349 mm

Hydrology

Hydrologic variables analyzed to characterize the surface water hydrologic conditions of the aquatics RSA include stream flows, basin water yields and basin sediment yields. Records of hydrologic data were obtained from Alberta Environment, Environment Canada Water Survey of Canada and RAMP.

Relevant annual, seasonal, monthly or daily statistics for the hydrologic variables were derived using available data and modelling analyses. Stream flow statistics included mean flows and floods. Key flow statistics for major streams within the aquatics RSA are presented in Table 22. Sediment analyses involved characterization of basin sediment yields and TSS concentrations. Basin sediment yields around the aquatics RSA are summarized in Table 22.

Table 22 Summary of Hydrologic Characteristics of Watersheds within the Aquatics Regional Study Area

Watershed Name Drainage

Area

[km2]

Discharge [m3/s] Sediment Yield

[mm] Mean Annual 10-year 25-year 100-year

MacKay River 5,569 16.9 226 281 346 0.013

Dover River 963 1.41 41.3 51.8 66 n/a

Dunkirk River 1,570 4.79 63.7 79.2 97.5 n/a

Ells River 2,450 7.57 131 177.4 254 0.020

n/a = Not available


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6 CLOSURE

This report presents the methodology and results of an environmental setting study conducted as part of the EIA for the Dover Commercial Project. This report was prepared and reviewed by the study team members listed below.

GOLDER ASSOCIATES LTD.

Report prepared by: Report reviewed by:

Efrain Giron, Ph.D., P.Eng. Eri Ilich, M.Sc., P.Eng. Water Resources Engineer Water Resources Engineer

Murray Fitch, M.A.Sc., P.Eng. Principal, Senior Advisor

Shawn McKeown, M.Eng. P.Eng. Principal, Oil Sands Project Manager


Golder Associates

7 REFERENCES

7.1 LITERATURE CITED

AENV (Alberta Environment). 2010. Final Terms of Reference Environmental Impact Assessment Report for the Dover Commercial Project. Edmonton, AB.

AGRA (AGRA Earth and Environmental Ltd.). 1996. Water Balance of Suncor’s Mine Closure Drainage System – Chapter 4. Prepared for Suncor Inc., Oil Sands Group. Calgary, AB.

AOSC (Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.). 2009. Application for Approval of the MacKay River Commercial Project, Hydrology Section. December 2009

Carson and Associates. 1991. Assessment of Sediment Transport Data and Sediment Budget Analysis for the Peace-Slave River System, Alberta.

Environment Canada. 1993. CFA (Consolidated Frequency Analysis) Model. Developed by the Surveys and Information Systems Branch, Environment Canada. Ottawa, ON.

Golder (Golder Associates Ltd.). 1997. Summer Data Collection Program and Baseline Hydrologic and Hydraulic Studies for the Muskeg River Mine Project. Prepared for Shell Canada Limited Calgary, AB.

Golder. 2003. Calibration of the HSPF Water Quality Model for the Oil Sands

Region in Northeastern Alberta. January 2003.

Golder. 2010. Total (Total E&P Joslyn Ltd.). 2010. Joslyn North Mine Project. Additional Information and Project Update. Submitted to Government of Canada-Energy Resources Conservation Board Joint Review Panel. February 2010. Calgary, AB.

Jain, S and V.P. Singh. 2003. Water Resources Systems Planning and Management, Elsevier Science, Oxford, UK

Kite, G.W. 1999. Frequency and Risk Analyses in Hydrology. Water Resources Publications. Littleton, CO.


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Morton, F.I., F. Richard and S. Fogarasi. 1985. Operational Estimates of Areal Evapotranspiration and Lake Evaporation – Program WREVAP. National Hydrology Research Institute. Inland Waters Directorate. Environment Canada. Ottawa, ON.

Petro-Canada. 1998. MacKay River Project Environmental Impact Assessment, Volume 3, November, 1998

Petro-Canada. Amendment Application for MacKay River Expansion. Volume IIb. November 2005.

Southern Pacific Resources Corp. 2009. Applications for the Southern Pacific Resource Corp. STP McKay SAGD Project, May, 2009

U.S. EPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency). 2000. EPA BASINS Technical Note 6, Estimating hydrology and hydraulic parameters for HSPF. EPA-823-R00-012, July 2000.

7.2 INTERNET SOURCES

Environment Canada. 2010a. Archived Hydrometric Data. Available at: http://www.wsc.ec.gc.ca/hydat/H2O/index_e.cfm?cname=main_e.cfm. Accessed September 2010.

Environment Canada. 2010b. Climate Data. Available at: http://climat.meteo.gc.ca/climateData/canada_e.html. Accessed September 2010.

Climate Source. 2001. Climate Mapping with PRISM. An Introduction to PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model). Available at: http://www.climatesource.com/docs/csguid.pdf. Accessed December 2009.

Canadian Bulk Density Calculator. 2010. Available on-line at: http://www.pedosphere.com/resources/bulkdensity/worktable.cfm Accessed September 2010.


Golder Associates

8 GLOSSARY

Aquatics Regional Study Area (RSA)

Defines the spatial extent directly or indirectly affected by the Project.

Aquifer A body of rock or soil that contains sufficient amounts of saturated permeable material to yield economic quantities of water to wells or springs. Any water-saturated body of geological material from which enough water can be drawn at a reasonable cost for the purpose required. An aquifer in an arid prairie area required to supply water to a single farm may be adequate if it can supply 1 m3/d. This would not be considered an aquifer by any industry looking for cooling water in volumes of 10,000 m3/d. A common usage of the term aquifer is to indicate the water-bearing material in any area from which water is most easily extracted.

Bankfull Depth The maximum depth of a channel within a riffle segment when flowing at a bank-full discharge.

Baseline A surveyed or predicted condition that serves as a reference point to which later surveys are coordinated or correlated.

Basin A geographic area drained by a single major stream; consists of a drainage system comprised of streams and often natural or man-made lakes.

Bitumen A highly viscous, tarry, black hydrocarbon material having an API gravity of about 9 (specific gravity about 1.0). It is a complex mixture of organic compounds. Carbon accounts for 80 to 85% of the elemental composition of bitumen, hydrogen 10%, sulphur 5%, and nitrogen, oxygen and trace elements form the remainder.

CFA (Consolidated Frequency Analysis)

A computer program for deriving flood flow frequencies.

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)

A review of the effects that a proposed development will have on the local and regional environment.

Environmental Setting

A quantitative level or value from which other data and observations of a comparable nature are referenced. Information accumulated concerning the state of a system, process or activity before the initiation of actions that may result in changes.

Evaporation The process by which water is changed from a liquid to a vapour.

Evaporation, Lake Evaporation that occurs from a lake surface.


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Evaporation, Potential

The maximum amount of water that can be evaporated from a surface (e.g., ground, vegetation) if surface moisture is not limited.

Evapotranspiration A measure of the ability of the atmosphere to remove water from a location through the processes of evaporation and water loss from plants (transpiration).

Evapotranspiration, Areal

Evapotranspiration that occurs over a given area.

Evapotranspiration, Potential

The maximum quantity of water capable of being evaporated from the soil and transpired from the vegetation of a specified region in a given time interval under existing climatic conditions and without limiting available surface moisture.

Fen Sedge peat materials derived primarily from sedges with inclusions of partially decayed stems of shrubs formed in a eutrophic environment due to the close association of the material with mineral rich waters. Minotropic peat-forming wetlands that receive surface moisture from precipitation and groundwater. Fens are less acidic than bogs, deriving most of their water from groundwater rich in calcium and magnesium.

Floods Are reported as 2-year, 10-year and 100-year floods. The 10-year flood, for example, is the daily flow that is expected to occur or be exceeded on average once every 10 years, based on a frequency analysis of recorded daily extremes or instantaneous extremes.

Footprint The proposed development area that directly affects the soil and vegetation components of the landscape.

Frequency Analysis A statistical procedure involved in interpreting the past record of a hydrological event to occurrences of that event in the future.

FRQ (Frequency)

A computer program for deriving low flow frequencies.

Geomorphology The science of surface landforms and their interpretation on the basis of geology and climate. That branch of science that deals with the form of the earth, the general configurations of its surface and the changes that take place in the evolution of landforms.

Glaciofluvial Sediments or landforms produced by melt waters originating from glaciers or ice sheets. Glaciofluvial deposits commonly contain rounded cobbles arranged in bedded layers.

Glaciolacustrine (or Glacio-Lacustrine)

Sediments that were deposited in lakes that formed at the edge of glaciers when the glaciers receded. Glaciolacustrine sediments are commonly laminar deposits of fine sand, silt and clay.

Groundwater That part of the subsurface water that occurs beneath the water table, in soils and geologic formations that are fully saturated.


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Headwater(s) The source and upper reaches of a stream; also the upper reaches of a reservoir. The water upstream from a structure or point on a stream. The small streams that come together to form a river. Also may be thought of as any and all parts of a river basin except the mainstream river and main tributaries.

Hydrology The science of waters of the earth, their occurrence, distribution, and circulation; their physical and chemical properties; and their reaction with the environment, including living beings.

Hydrometric Station A station where measurement of hydrological parameters is performed.

In situ Latin term meaning “in place”. In an oil sands context, often refers to methods of extracting deep deposits of oil sands without removing the groundcover. The in situ technology in oil sands uses underground wells to recover the resources with less impact to the land, air and water than the traditional oil sands mining methods.

Initial Surface Development Area (ISDA)

The surface area containing all of the facilities that will be required for access and initial development of the subsurface bitumen associated with Phase 1 of the Dover Commercial Project; including the Dover North Plant, Phase 1 well pads gathering corridors and associated infrastructure, the main Dover Access Road and Utility Corridor and the wells, pipelines and infrastructure required for the non-saline water well system.

Long-term Averages Are reported as the mean monthly flow for each of the year and the mean annual flow that is the mean for all the years over the period of record. Extreme flows include both floods and low flows.

Low flows Are reported as 2-year and 10-year monthly low flows. Low flows are also reported as 7Q10 low flow, which is the 7-day average low flow with a 10-year return period.

Node Location along a river channel, lake inlet or lake outlet where flows, sediment yield and water quality have been quantified.

Oil Sands A sand deposit containing a heavy hydrocarbon (bitumen) in the intergranular pore space of sands and fine grained particles. Typical oil sands comprise approximately 10 wt% bitumen, 85% coarse sand (>44 µm) and a fines (<44 µm) fraction, consisting of silts and clays.

Oil Sands Region The Oil Sands Region includes the Fort McMurray – Athabasca Oil Sands Subregional Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), the Lakeland Subregional IRP and the Cold Lake – Beaver River Subregional IRP.

Reach A comparatively short length of river, stream channel or shore. The length of the reach is defined by the purpose of the study.


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Regional Aquatics Monitoring Program (RAMP)

RAMP was established to determine, evaluate and communicate the state of the aquatic environment in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region.

Regional Stream Flow Analysis

Uses standard statistical methods, including derivation of long-term averages, and extreme high and low flows, and the probability of occurance of extreme high and low flows

Regional Study Area (RSA)

Defines the spatial extent related to the cumulative effects resulting from the project and other regional developments.

Relative Humidity The ratio of the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere to the amount necessary for saturation at the same temperature. Relative humidity is expressed in terms of percent and measures the percentage of saturation.

Runoff The portion of water from rain and snow that flows over land to streams, ponds or other surface waterbodies. It is the portion of water from precipitation that does not infiltrate into the ground or evaporate.

Sediment Solid material that is transported by, suspended in, or deposited from water. It originates mostly from disintegrated rocks; it also includes chemical and biochemical precipitates and decomposed organic material, such as humus. The quantity, characteristics and cause of the occurrence of sediment in streams are influenced by environmental factors. Some major factors are degree of slope, length of slope soil characteristics, land usage and quantity and intensity of precipitation.

Sediment Transport Transport rate of soil particles through a channel by stream flow.

Sediment Yield The amount of sediment transported by a stream system that may be measurable at a particular location. Usually expressed in volume or weight per unit of time.

Seven-Day 10-Year Low Flow (7Q10)

The lowest average stream flow during a seven-day interval that is expected to occur once every 10 years on average.

Solar Radiation The principal portion of the solar spectrum that spans from approximately 300 nanometres (nm) to 4,000 nm in the electromagnetic spectrum. It is measured in W/m2, which is radiation energy per second per unit area.

Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD)

An in situ oil sands recovery technique that involves the use of two horizontal wells, one to inject steam and a second to produce the bitumen.

Stream Flow The movement of surface water in a stream channel usually measured in cubic metres per second (m3/s). It describes the flow at a specific location along a watercourse. Runoff contributed by the entire land area to the stream can be used to describe flow.


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Total Dissolved Solids (TDS)

The total concentration of all dissolved compound solids found in a water sample.

Total Suspended Solids (TSS)

The amount of suspended substances in a water sample. Solids found in wastewater or in a stream, which can be removed by filtration. The origin of suspended matter may be artificial or anthropogenic wastes or natural sources such as silt.

Transpiration Transpiration is the process by which water is transferred from soil and plant surfaces to the atmosphere.

Upland Areas Areas which has typical ground slopes 1 to 3% and better drainage.

Water Yield Runoff, including groundwater outflow that appears in the stream, plus groundwater outflow that leaves the basin underground. Water yield is the precipitation minus the evapotranspiration.

Waterbody A general term that refers to ponds, bays, lakes, estuaries and marine areas.

Watercourse A general term that refers to riverine systems such as creeks, brooks, streams and rivers.

Watershed The entire surface drainage area that contributes water to a lake or river.

Wetlands Wetlands are areas where the water table is at, near or above the surface or which is saturated for a long enough period to promote such features as wet-altered soils and water tolerant vegetation. Wetlands include organic wetlands or “peatlands,” and mineral wetlands or mineral soil areas that are influenced by excess water but produce little or no peat.


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9 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

% Percent

°C Degrees Celsius

7Q10 Lowest 7-day consecutive flow that occurs, on average, once every 10 years.

AENV Alberta Environment

AGRA AGRA Earth and Environmental Ltd.

ASRD Alberta Sustainable Resource Development

bpd Barrels per day

DNP Dover North Plant

Dover OPCO Dover Operating Corp.

e.g. For example

EIA Environmental Impact Assessment

Golder Golder Associates Ltd.

ha Hectare

hr Hour

HSPF Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN

i.e. That is

IDF Intensity – duration – frequency

ISDA Initial Surface Development Area

km Kilometre

km2 Square kilometre

LSA Local Study Area

m Metre

m3/s Cubic metre per second

masl Metres above sea level

min Minute

mm Millimetre

n/a Not applicable

PRISM Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model

QA/QC Quality Assurance / Quality Control

RAMP Regional Aquatics Monitoring Program

ROW Right-of-Way

RSA Regional Study Area

SAGD Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage

TDS Total dissolved solids

TOR Terms of Reference


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TSS Total suspended solids

U.S. EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency

W/m2 Watts per square metre

W4M West of the Fourth Meridian

WSC Water Survey of Canada

Documents

HYDROLOGY BASELINE REPORT - Alberta · Dover Commercial Project - 4 - Hydrology Baseline Report December 2010 Golder Associates Table 1 Summary of Climatic and Hydrologic Variables