Hydropower models for SEE

Energy Commodity Conference

Athens 2019

Dr. Anamaria Toebe

Senior Analyst

• Formerly known as MKonline, Wattsight was demerged from Markedskraft in 2017

• Leading provider of data, analysis and consulting services for the European energy market

• Over 350 subscribing customers, including some of Europe's largest power and energy companies and financial institutions

• Providing fundamental and price forecasts for the short-, mid- and long term horizon

About Wattsight

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Wattsight – Hydropower in cont. Europe

Hydropower development SEE

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Existing hydropower plants: 1004 In construction: 188

https://balkanrivers.net/en/vmap

Hydropower development SEE

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Existing hydropower plants: 1004 In construction: 188

https://balkanrivers.net/en/vmap

Planned: 2796

Country distribution of hydropower plants for SEE & TR

Save the blue heart of Europe

Hydropower development SEE

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Existing hydropower plants: 1004 In construction: 188

https://balkanrivers.net/en/vmap

Planned: 2796

Country distribution of hydropower plants for SEE & TR

Save the blue heart of Europe

Modelling Approach

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Water Cycle

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HBV Inflow Forecast Model

• Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning(Hydrological Agency Water Balance Department)

• Rainfall-runoff model developed in the early 70’s

• Precipitation and temperature are corrected for topography

• Snow routine – computing snow accumulation and melt

• Soil moisture routine - melt water and rain are added to soil moisture -> evaporation and water to runoff layers calculated

• Upper zone runoff – storage in active growndwater

• Lower zone runoff – base flow, also available in dry situations

(GWh/day)

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Hydrology concept for SEE models

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Modelling Hydropower in SEE

• 8 countries covered

• 4 extra models for RO for inflow, precipitations and riverflow

Iron Gate (6.5TWh)

Donau-Bezdan ( 50 % = 3.2 TWh)

Sava ( 40% = 2.7 TWh)

Tisa ( 10% = 0.6 TWh)

+

Romania Inland 9.5 TWh

Iron Gate

Modelling Results

HBV Calibration Results - SEE Total Inflow

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Forecasting Hydro Production and Inflow

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Hydro Reservoirs SEE

Reservoir on weekly frequency from Entsoe Transparency

Week 22Capacity

GWhReservoir Filling

%Reservoir Filling

GWh

Romania 3000 93.8% 2 813

Serbia 750 55.9% 419

Croatia 1500 63.7% 956

Bosnia* 800 57% 456

Bulgaria 2800 62.6% 1752

Slovenia* 3 100% 3

Greece 4000 67.5% 2701

N. Macedonia* 400 56.4% 225

SEE 13253 70.4% 9325

*estimated weekly reservoir numbers (often missing)

Challenges and Outlook

Challenges

• Weekly reservoir data often missing

• Estimation of reservoir content makes actual inflow more uncertain

• Evaporation is substantial in the area

• Run-of-river levels need to be estimated

• No official snow reports for long-term ressource assessment

• Uncertainty regarding hydro power plants development in the area

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Outlook

• Further model calibration

• New models for AL, ME, HU

• New data sources to be added

• Including hourly hydro profiles into the price models:

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Thank you for your attention

This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, Wattsight AS do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it.

© 2019 Wattsight AS. All rights reserved.

Dr. Anamaria Toebe ato@wattsight.com

For more information visit www.wattsight.com