I, Allan Davison declare that in the past 3 years:

I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*: No

I have done consulting work for the following companies*: No

I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*: None

I or my family hold individual shares in the following*: None

*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment

1

Declaration of Conflict of Interest

Making hunger history?

2

Where are we?

Where are we going?

Much better as a result of MDGs, but in 2015 hunger won’t yet be history

Hunger on a global scale will disappear, in 2 or 3 more 15y plans. New initiatives

We now know what works. 5-10 nations will keep pledges. None will forgo trade rules that favour rich at the expense of poor

What’s working, what’s not?

3

3 www.sfu.ca/global-nutritionplease disturb!

Allan Davison

adavison@sfu.ca

Make hunger history?

Aid isn’t workingTrade for profit instead

Trade barriers. Fair trade & aid

Population outstrips food supply

We give more than anyone!

Trillions wasted! - 1 b still starving

MDGs won’t be achieved

Most aid corrupt dictators Corrupt multinationals

2008 recession

Never promised 0.7%

“Trade not aid”

Broken promises

Malthus is wrong

4

V little is wasted

Yeah – ½ what EU gives!

Profit motive hasn’t worked - aid is needed

“They” didn’t cause it

You did so!

Wo

rld

GD

P $

PP

P p

er

cap

(es

t) 1

500-

2100

1500 2000$0

$5,000

$10,000

India to 1500

China + Indiato 1850

WesternEuropeto 1945

USA + WestEurope

since 1945

http://ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/

Manifest destiny of world - wealth

China +India 2040?

5

Number of malnourished world-wide

61970 1980 1990 2000 20100

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000M

illio

ns

un

der

-no

uri

shed

(FA

O k

cal /

ho

use

ho

ld)

FAO data

water-carrier

See also: WHO, UN, WB, USDA, CIA, OECD, IFPRI

UNICEF 2009

http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf

kcal per household surveyed

World% undernourished

71970 1980 1990 2000 201015

33%

17%same data

22%

14%

1970 2010 2015 target 2030 FAO est

0

2000

4000

6000

8000Fed

Malnourished

Number fed & under-nourished worldwide

8

14%

Prediction

6%11%

Target

33%

88

millions

9

http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf

http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/32/4/518.full.pdf

Percentage stunted

60%

40%

20%

Africa

Asia

Latin Am

Last 2 or 3 points are projections

1980 & every 5 years

10

Paying for total strangers to eat?

Not us, not if it goes to corrupt

dictators” }

10

11

http://www.globalissues.org/article/35/foreign-aid-development-assistance#GovernmentsCuttingBackonPromisedResponsibilities

“Development aid”, not spent on poverty or development

Clawed back by unfair tradeEmergency aid Debt relief Refugee, Tied to benefit rich

“Phantom aid”, the wasted 47%Refers toODA, not

MDGs

Corrupt heads of state: Rich...

Series1

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Accept “bribes” to give trade concessions that impoverish their people

Accept personal & campaign “contributions” peddling influence. Could stop bribery at home & abroad by abolishing secret a/c

... & Poor

12

100s

bu

reau

crat

s

200s

MN

Cs

10s

corr

up

t d

icta

tors

1000

s p

resi

den

ts,

PM

s, b

ure

aucr

ats

in r

ich

wikipedia Lockheed

SwissAir

We know what works•Transparent & accountable , open bids

•Partnerships not paternalism

•Goals, objectives, timed milestones

•Strategies revised annually by both partners

•Externally monitored. No political pressure

•Sustainable emphasis on poverty, agriculture

•Serves recipient needs, not donor / ideology

•Firm long-term commitments: MV, Grameen

Unrealistic? Let’s see ...13

• Grameen Family of social enterprises

• Billionaire philanthropists & foundations

• The Millennium Village project

• Passionate & influential voices for change

• Scientists & students bring energy to future

• Instant spread of innovations: agric, educ, &c

Beyond MDGs: amazing changes

14 www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition

15

Passionate renegades

15

The End

16

adavison@sfu.cawww.sfu.ca/global-hunger

adavison@sfu.cawww.sfu.ca/global-hunger

16

year2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2008 GDP/capita:Developing countries 3.93%

Developed countries -0.03Advantage = 3.96%

USDA data

17

% GDP/cap pa for poor nations cf % for rich

Number stunted (Unicef Data)

18

http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf

mill

ions

http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/32/4/518.full.pdf

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs290/en/index.htmlhttp://www.fao.org/mdg/en/http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/reports.shtml#mdgs

Most MDGs will be mostly met worldwide

19

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs290/en/index.html

http://www.fao.org/mdg/en/http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/reports.shtml#mdgs

“Phantom aid”: 47% is “wasted”

• Evaporating aid - promises … broken as soon as cameras turn elsewhere

• $ flow benefits the rich nations – tilted trade

• Aid with strings attached, contingent on UN votes, WB loans, unfair trade

• Dumped food surplus local farm economy

• Money given by corrupt rich people to “corrupt dictators”

20

UK banks in Nigerian

corruptionPaul Collier: The bottom billion20

Emergency aid isn’t intended for development

http://www.globalissues.org/article/35/foreign-aid-development-assistance#GovernmentsCuttingBackonPromisedResponsibilities