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Committee on World Food Security

High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition

Food Security and Climate Change

A zero draft consultation paper

19 March 2012

Submitted by the HLPE to open electronic consultation

This paper has been produced by the HLPE Project Team:Gerald C. Nelson (Team Leader), Zucong Cai, Charles Godfray, Rashid Hassan,Maureen Santos, and Hema Swaminathan.

This advanced draft is put online as part of the report elaboration process of the HLPE, for publicfeedback and comments from 20 March 2012 until 10 April 2012.

To get the link to the consultation: www.fao.org/cfs/cfs-hlpe

This consultation will be used by the HLPE Project Team to further elaborate the report, which will thenbe submitted to external expert review, before finalization by the Project Team under Steering Committeeguidance and oversight. According to the provisions of the Rules and Procedures for the work of theHLPE, prior to its publication, the final report will be approved by the HLPE Steering Committee. This isexpected to take place at the 5th meeting of the HLPE Steering Committee (June 2012).

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http://www.fao.org/cfs/cfs-hlpe

Food Security and Climate Change Zero draft consultation paper (19 March 2012)

1 Table of Contents

FOREWORD ................................................................................................................................ ................... v

SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS (INCLUDING LIST OF RECOMMENDATIONS) .................................... vi

1 Assessing impacts of climate change on food and nutrition security and nutrition today .................................................. 1

1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 1

1.2 Assessing direct and indirect impacts of climate change on food and nutrition security today ................. 2

1.3 What do we know about climate change? ................................................................................................. 3

1.4 Food security and the effects of climate change ........................................................................................ 7

1.4.1 Climate change consequences for different agricultural systems ........................................................... 8

1.4.2 Role of women in agricultural production ................................................................................................ 9

1.4.3 Availability ............................................................................................................................................. 11

1.4.4 Access .................................................................................................................................................. 16

1.4.5 Utilization .............................................................................................................................................. 17

1.4.6 Stability ................................................................................................................................................. 17

1.5 Policy messages ...................................................................................................................................... 18

2 Assessing impacts of climate change on food and nutrition security and nutrition tomorrow: Plausible scenarios of

the future ........................................................................................................................................................ 20

2.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 20

2.2 Climate scenarios and their consequences for climate change for food and nutrition security and nutrition ………..... 21

2.3 Availability ................................................................................................................................................ 22

2.4 Access ..................................................................................................................................................... 23

2.5 Use .......................................................................................................................................................... 24

2.6 Stability .................................................................................................................................................... 25

2.7 Data and modeling issues ........................................................................................................................ 25

2.8 Policy Messages ...................................................................................................................................... 25

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Minagri, 18/04/12,

In October 2010, the CFS requested the HLPE to conduct a study on climate change and food security, to “review existing assessments and initiatives on the effects of climate change on food security and nutrition, with a focus on the most affected and vulnerable regions and populations and the interface between climate change and agricultural productivity, including the challenges and opportunities of adaptation and mitigation policies and actions for food security and nutrition.”. Taking into account that the mandate refers to “nutritional security”, we suggest the deletion of the term and replaces it with “food security and nutrition”.


3 Chapter 3: Adaptation: Response options for food security challenges from climate change .................... 27

3.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 27

3.2 Lessons from recent adaptation ............................................................................................................... 28

3.3 Anticipatory strategies and options for adapting to climate change ......................................................... 28

3.3.1 Availability ............................................................................................................................................. 28

3.3.2 Access .................................................................................................................................................. 30

3.3.3 Use ....................................................................................................................................................... 31

3.3.4 Stability ................................................................................................................................................. 31

3.4 Sectoral approaches to adaptation .......................................................................................................... 31

3.4.1 The private sector.................................................................................................................................. 31

3.4.2 Governments and international organizations ...................................................................................... 32

3.4.3 The research community ...................................................................................................................... 33

4 Agricultural mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions .................................................................................. 35

4.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 35

4.2 Agriculture’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions .......................................................................... 35

4.3 GHG emissions from land use change .................................................................................................... 36

4.4 Mitigation options in agriculture................................................................................................................ 37

4.5 Synergies and tradeoffs between adaptation and mitigation ................................................................... 38

4.6 Policy messages ...................................................................................................................................... 39

5 Recommendations for policies and actions ................................................................................................ 40

5.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 405.2 Climate change responses should be complementary to, not independent of, activities that areneeded for sustainable food security ............................................................................................................. 40

5.3 Climate change adaptation and mitigation require national activities and global coordination …….….... 41

5.3.1 Adaptation ............................................................................................................................................. 41

5.3.2 Mitigation ............................................................................................................................................... 41

5.4 Public-public and public-private partnerships are essential ..................................................................... 42

References ..................................................................................................................................................... 40

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2 List of Figures

Figure 1. Changing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs of importance to agriculture, 1978-2010 andGrowth in global warming potential by section 1970-2004 (lower right) .......................................................... 5

Figure 2. Regional distribution of GHG emissions in 2004 by population (mt CO2-eq per capita) ................... 6

Figure 3. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (PgC) ..................................................................................................... 6

Figure 4. Comparison of observed continental- and global-scale changes in surface temperature withresults simulated by climate models using either natural or both natural and anthropogenic forcings. ........... 7

Figure 5. The share of women in agricultural work and in extension services, selected African countries ….10

Figure 6. Agricultural population as a share of total economically active population (2003-2005 average)........................................................................................................................................................................ 12

Figure 7. Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields, divided by the overall yieldtrend ............................................................................................................................................................... 15

Figure 8. Losses in the food chain – from field to household consumption ................................................... 16

Figure 9. Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050, CSIRO, A1B (mm) ...................................... 22

Figure 10. Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050, MIROC, A1B (mm) ................................... 22

Figure 11. Yield effects, rainfed maize, CSIRO A1B ..................................................................................... 23

Figure 12. Yield effects, rainfed maize, MIROC A1B ..................................................................................... 23

Figure 13. Vulnerability domains where there is greater than 5% change in length of growing period(LGP). ............................................................................................................................................................ 24

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FOREWORD

The UN Committee on World Food Security (CFS) underwent a reform in 2009 in order to make theinternational governance of food security and nutrition more effective through improved coordination,policy coherence, and support and advice to countries and regions. The reformed CFS set up a HighLevel Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition (HLPE), for getting credible scientific andknowledge-based advice to underpin policy formulation, thereby creating an interface between knowledgeand public policy. The HLPE is directed by a Steering Committee, appointed in July 2010. The work of theHLPE supports the policy agenda of CFS: this makes its reports demand driven. It serves also to raiseawareness on emerging issues.

In its October 2010 annual meeting, the United Nations Committee on World Food Security (CFS)requested its HLPE to conduct a study on climate change and food security, to “review existingassessments and initiatives on the effects of climate change on food security and nutrition, with a focuson the most affected and vulnerable regions and populations and the interface between climate changeand agricultural productivity, including the challenges and opportunities of adaptation and mitigationpolicies and actions for food security and nutrition.”

[to be completed in the final version of the report.]

v


SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS (INCLUDING LIST OFRECOMMENDATIONS)

[to be completed in the final version of the report.]

vi

1 ASSESSING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY AND NUTRITION TODAY

1.1 Introduction

In its October 2010 annual meeting, the United Nations Committee on World Food Security (CFS)requested its high level panel of experts (HLPE) to conduct a study on climate change and food security,to “review existing assessments and initiatives on the effects of climate change on food security andnutrition, with a focus on the most affected and vulnerable regions and populations and the interfacebetween climate change and agricultural productivity, including the challenges and opportunities ofadaptation and mitigation policies and actions for food security and nutrition.” This report is the outcomeof that request. The authors interpreted this charge to develop a document of relevance to national andinternational policymakers that served four purposes. First, it should provide an overview of what isknown about the consequences of climate change for food and nutrition security and nutrition, written with a policymaker in mind. Because the effects of climate change will grow progressively more serious, the reportassesses both the current situation (Chapter 1) and plausible scenarios of the future (Chapter 2) withfocus on the most affected and vulnerable regions and populations. Second it should assess the state ofknowledge on and need for agricultural adaptation to climate change, in the context of the already largechallenges to food security from population and income growth in a world where many natural systemsare already stressed (Chapter 3). Third, it should report on agriculture’s current contributions togreenhouse gas emissions and what potential is there for agriculture in mitigation – reducing its ownemissions and capturing emissions from other sectors – while meeting the growing demand for food(Chapter 4). Finally, based on the insights from the first four chapters, the final chapter (Chapter 5)suggests national and international policy strategies for dealing with the food security challenges ofclimate change.

A short report cannot be exhaustive, either about the range of food security challenges from a growingpopulation, with higher incomes, in a world with increasingly scarce natural resources, or the threats fromclimate change. Rather the goal is to synthesize existing research findings to highlight key issues, withsupporting evidence, to provide the basis for helping national and international policy makers deviseeffective and equitable policies to combat the additional challenges to global food security from climatechange.

Three overarching policy messages arise from this report. They are introduced here, expanded in each ofthe chapters and summarized in the last chapter. First, to help those most vulnerable to climate change,policies and programs that are designed to respond to climate change should be complementary to, notindependent of, those needed for sustainable food security1. But climate change poses unique anduncertain threats to food security that require public and private sector action today with special emphasis in public sector action and the increase in international cooperation. Second, climatechange adaptation and mitigation activities in agriculture must should be implemented on millions of farms andundertaken by people who are often the most vulnerable, and in accordance with the principles and provisions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Local lessons learned are most valuable whenshared. Supporting activities require global coordination as well as national programs. Finally, both publicpublicand public-private partnerships are essential to address all elements of the coming challenges to

1See the glossary for more discussion of sustainable food security as discussed in the 2009 World FoodSummit declaration.

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Minagri, 18/04/12,

We suggest the deletion of sustainable since “sustainable food security” is not an agreed and science-based concept.


food security from climate change in equitable and efficient ways. This will require greater transparencyand new roles for all elements of society, including the private sector and civil society.

1.2 Assessing direct and indirect impacts of climate change on food and nutrition security and nutrition today

In several portions of this section, the issue is addressed from the perspective of the definition of food security, which is descriptive, and then the analysis continues based on a quantitative definition of poverty, leaving behind food security as subject of analysis. Further, the issue of poverty should not be addressed as if limited to rural areas, particularly considering that public policies intended to fight it need to differ greatly according to the type of poverty at which they are aimed, either rural or urban.

The World Food Summit of 2009 included the following definition of food security in its final declaration.

Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. The four pillars of food security are availability2, access3, utilization4 andstability5. The nutritional dimension is integral to the concept of food security (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2009).6

Certainly we have not succeeded in meeting this definition. Even the modest ambition of the hungertarget of the Millennium Development goals—halving the proportion of people who suffer from hungerbetween 1990 and 2015—is also unlikely to be met on a global basis, although some individual countrieswill achieve the target. The share of undernourished people has remained essentially constant at about16 percent since 2000, after declining from 20 percent in 1990 (United Nations, 2010), and it too is likelyto have increased during the global financial crisis that began in the late 2000s.7

Climate change will make the challenge of achieving food security even harder. Its effects on foodproduction and distribution may increase poverty and inequality, with impacts on each of the four pillars,and consequent effects on livelihoods and nutrition.

The Committee’s charge includes two foci

2 The supply side of food security, determined by production, stocks and trade.

3 Access is influenced by incomes, markets, and prices.

4 Utilization focuses on how the body takes advantage of the various nutrients. It is influenced by care andfeeding practices, food preparation, dietary diversity, and intrahousehold distribution.

5 Stability brings in the time dimension. Periodic shortfalls in food availability are a sign of food insecurity,even if current consumption is adequate.

6 This definition of food security differs slight from that developed in the World Food Summit of 1996,especially in its inclusion of the stability pillar.

7 A different perspective on recent global progress is given in Kenny (2012). “On Feb. 29 [2012], the

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World Bank came out with its latest estimates on global poverty. They suggest incredible worldwideprogress against the scourge of absolute deprivation. In 1981, 52 percent of the planet lived on $1.25 aday or less according to the World Bank's estimates; today it is around 20 percent. In 1990, around 65percent of the population lived on less than $2 a day; by 2008 that number had fallen to 43 percent. Thisis not just a story about China -- though 663 million people in that country alone have climbed out ofpoverty since the early 1980s. Poverty has been declining in every region, and for the first time since theWorld Bank began making estimates, less than half of the population of sub-Saharan Africa lives inabsolute deprivation.”


the most affected vulnerable regions and populations the interface between climate change and agricultural productivity

The “most affected vulnerable regions and populations” part of the request directs attention to the regionsof the world or populations that will feel the effects of climate change, either directly via changes inprecipitation and temperature, or indirectly, for example, via biophysical changes elsewhere that result inmarket effects locally. Vulnerability to climate change8 suggests a focus on regions, groups, or individualswho are significantly and adversely affected by the direct or indirect biophysical effects of climatechange9. These are mostly likely to be the poor; the well-off can afford to ‘buy’ food security, at least inthe short run.

Who are the poor? They are likely to be located in rural areas and be female and children. Using WorldBank statistics (http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/), over 20 percent of the world’spopulation are below the $1.25 a day poverty line (about 1.3 billion people). They are overwhelminglylocated in two regions – Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. [A few more statistics to be added.]

An important point we return to in the final chapter is that programs and policies to deal with climatechange must be part of efforts to reduce poverty and enhance food security. There is likely to besubstantial overlap between the poor, those who are food insecure and those affected by climate change.Climate change adds to the challenges of improving their well-being. But there are many otherdeterminants of poverty and challenges to the vulnerable. Attempts to address climate changevulnerability that are undertaken independently risk using resources inefficiently and losing opportunitiesfor synergies. At the same time, climate change brings unique challenges that require modifications toexisting food security programs.

To set the stage, this section begins with an overview of what we know about the science of climatechange, the ways in which human behavior can bring about changes in climate and the evidence to datethat such change is taking place and how it affects food and nutrition security and nutrition. It is followed by adiscussion of how food security is affected by climate change. These effects include biologicalconsequences for crops, livestock, and systems, and the direct and indirect consequences for foodsecurity.

1.2 What do we know about climate change?

Climate is usually defined as average weather; climate change as changes in climate caused directly orindirectly by human activity10. Many things people do can cause local changes in climate.11 However, this

8 The glossary defines climate change vulnerability as “the degree to which an individual is or groups ofindividuals are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, includingclimate variability and extremes.”

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Minagri, 16/04/12,

See general comment for the section 1.2 Assessing direct and indirect impacts of climate change on food and nutrition security today.

9 A useful discussion of the basic concepts of food security, including concepts of vulnerability, is Foodand Agriculture Organization (2008).

10 Article 1 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climatechange as: ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters thecomposition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed overcomparable time periods’.


report focuses on patterns that can be observed globally. Physicists and atmospheric scientists haveknown for more than 100 years that some gasses in the atmosphere, known as greenhouse gases(GHGs), convert light from the sun to heat that warms the air. The top and bottom left panels of Figure 1show recent changes in concentrations of GHGs that are produced by agricultural activities. Carbondioxide (CO2) was the GHG that received initial attention in climate change research, because of the rapidgrowth in petroleum use for transport and coal for energy generation in the 20th century. As the top leftgraph in Figure 1 shows, there has been a steady increase in CO2 over the latter part of the 20th centuryand the beginning of the 21st century.12 Two other GHGs – nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) – arecreated by agricultural activities. N2O is released from a variety of agricultural activities with nitrogenbasedfertilizer as an especially important source. N2O emissions have shown an upward growth similarto that of CO2. Agricultural CH4 emissions come from two distinct activities – the digestive processes ofcattle and other ruminants (both wild and domesticated), and the decomposition of plant matter underanaerobic conditions such as in irrigated rice fields. The growth in CH4 concentrations slowed in thebeginning of the 21st century. Some observers attribute this to a concerted effort to reduce leaks in naturalgas (almost completely made up of CH4) pipelines in some parts of the world. Other explanations includereduction in wetland areas and changes in the atmospheric composition that increase the breakdown ofCH4.

The GHGs are very different in their ability to convert sunlight into warming, called their global warmingpotential (GWP). The convention is to compare other GHGs to CO2 and report them in units of CO2

equivalents (CO2-eq).13 The bottom right graph in Figure 1 shows the growth in GWP from 1970 to 2004by source. CO2 from fossil fuel use is the largest single source, and has grown steadily over this period,but emissions from agricultural activities are quite important as well. Roughly speaking, agriculturalactivities including deforestation account for about 1/3 of total GWP from GHG emissions.

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11 Examples include higher temperatures in cities than in the surrounding countryside (heat islands) andlocal increases in temperature and changes in rainfall patterns when forests are cleared.

12 The cyclical pattern arises because plants in the northern hemisphere take up CO2 in spring when theygrow and then release it in the fall when they die.

13 The GWP of CH4 is 25; for N2O it is 298.


Figure 1. Changing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs of importance to agriculture, 1978-2010and Growth in global warming potential by section 1970-2004 (lower right)

Sources: GHG concentrations - http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi_2011.fig2.png. GWP -http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains2-1.html

Figure 2 shows average emissions per person in different regions of the world. Annex 1 countries (whichare essentially the developed countries of today) have average emissions of 16.1 mt CO2-eq per capitawhile the average for non-Annex 1 countries is roughly one fourth of this amount (4.2 mt CO2-eq percapita). Within the group of non-Annex 1 countries South Asia has the lowest per capita emissions.

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http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains2-1.html


Figure 2. Regional distribution of GHG emissions in 2004 by population (mt CO2-eq per capita)

Source: Figure 2.2 a in IPCC (2007). Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/syr/fig2-2.jpg.

However, economic growth in non-Annex 1 countries is leading to rapid growth of emissions in thosecountries, as Figure 3 indicates. For example, Olivier, Janssens-Maenhout, Peters, & Wilson (2011)report that China’s per capita CO2 emissions in 2010 were larger than those of France and Spain andcould overtake the US by 2017. Meeting any of the emissions goals of recent UNFCCC meetings willrequire both reductions in emissions from Annex 1 countries and reductions in emissions growth in non-Annex 1 countries.

Figure 3. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (PgC)

Source: Figure 2 in Peters et al. (2012).

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Hoppstock, Julia Geraldine, 17/04/12,

This kind of assertion is not descriptive, if not prescriptive and it exceeds the mandate of the HLPE. Also, it is contrary to the provisions and dispositions of the UNFCCC, in particular of the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Therefore, we propose its deletion.

http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/syr/fig2-2.jpg


In parallel with the increases in GHG emissions, average temperatures across the globe have increasedfrom the late 19th century to the early 21st century. During the first half of the 20th century the averagetemperature rose by about 0.3°C; by the beginning of the 21st century another 0.5°C had been added(IPCC, 2007). To assess the possibility that the temperature increases are brought about by humandrivenincreases in GHGs, a variety of evidence is brought to bear. A widely used technique is to usesoftware models (called GCMs in this report)14 of the physical and chemical processes of the atmosphereand its interactions with land and oceans and use them to explore temperature changes with and withoutGHGs from human activity. These models make it possible to perform virtual experiments, both to test themodels and to evaluate the effects of possible future emissions pathways and of mitigation policies.Figure 4 illustrates the differences in model outcomes with historical data between 1900 and 2000 whenrun with and without GHGs from human activities. The blue bands are model outcomes for temperaturewithout human-induced GHGs, the pink bars show temperature increases with these gases, and the blacklines indicate what actually happened. The black lines are almost entirely contained within the pink bandsand mostly fall outside the blue bands. These types of analyses suggest that the models do well both atcapturing the biophysical processes that result in changes in climate and that human-induced GHGemissions are likely to have been important in the temperature increases already observed.

Figure 4. Comparison of observed continental- and global-scale changes in surface temperaturewith results simulated by climate models using either natural or both natural and anthropogenicforcings.

Source: Based on Figure 2.5 in WGI Figure SPM.4.

1.4 Food security and the effects of climate changeThe threats to sustainable food security include population growth mostly in today’s developing countrieswith growing incomes in a world where resource constraints are already limiting productivity growth insome places. Climate change is a threat multiplier – adding to the challenges from the other threats. All

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four pillars of food security are affected by changing climate means and increasing variability. These

14 The current versions of these models are called Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General CirculationModels and are referred to as climate models or GCMs in this report. There are roughly 18 of thesemodels in active development around the world.


translate into changes in average levels and variability in food production, with knock-on effects onincome for food producers and food affordability for urban consumers. These effects will be felt, and mustbe dealt with, from global to local food systems. Local social-environmental systems are where theimmediate effects of climate change are felt and are therefore key actors in societal responses to climatechange. But global, national and local social and political institutions will all play important roles inmanaging the effects of climate change on food security and need to work together to find ways to reducerisks and ensure food security and nutrition for all.

An important aspect of how climate change affects food security is differences in modes of agriculturalproduction both locally within a particular region and across the globe. There are many dimensions toagricultural practices; we focus on two – the scale of farm operation and individuals who make decisionsand undertake the work on the farm. Other distinctions of relevance include the degree to which farmoutput is sold, the extent to which farm operations are undertaken primarily by family labor, and thedegree of mixed outputs (different crops, crop and livestock outputs, and other ecosystem services15),sometimes referred to as multifunctionality (IAASTD, 2008). These are often, but not always, related toscale of operation.

1.4.1 Climate change consequences for different agricultural systemsFood production systems are extremely diverse, both within individual countries and across nationalboundaries. Climate change will not affect all systems the same, hence the need to assess differentpolicy and program approaches. At the same time policy choices influence the evolution of agriculturalsystems, which can impact climate change and food security.Agricultural systems differ in many dimensions, driven by climate, natural resource availability, ownerandoperator characteristics and sociocultural drivers. One common organizing approach to describingagricultural systems is a dichotomy that contrasts small scale16 with larger scale farming. The IASSTDreport (2008) states that “The two systems differ greatly in terms of resource consumption, capitalintensity, access to markets and employment opportunities” (IAASTD, 2008: 44). A central element of

15 The benefits people obtain from ecosystems. In line with the definition provided by FAO, these include provisioning services such as food andwater; regulating services such as flood and disease control; cultural services such as spiritual,recreational, and cultural benefits; and supporting services such as nutrient cycling that maintain theconditions for life on Earth.

16 What we refer to as small-scale farming goes by many names with varying definitions. It is also knownas small farmer, smallholder, family or peasant farmer, subsistence, and family agriculture. Participants insmall-scale farming include family farmers, herders and pastoralists, landless and rural workers, forestdwellers, fisher folk, gardeners, indigenous peoples and traditional communities. (Actionaid UK, 2009:1).

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Governments must translate these qualitative concepts about small-scale farming into official definitionsfor policy implementation. Official definitions of small scale farming vary dramatically across countries andincorporate different elements. In Asia, cultivated area is a typical measure and a common cutoff is 2hectares. Using this definition globally, Nagayets (2005) reports that most small farms are in Asia (87percent), followed by Africa (8 percent), Europe (4 percent) and North and South America (1 percent). InBrazil, the official definition of a family farm (roughly equivalent to a small-scale farm) is 5-110 hectaresdepending on region of the country, uses predominantly family labor, and provides the bulk of the familyincome. In the U.S. the definition is based on the size of sales, with farms having sales less than $50,000being considered small.


scale is the agricultural area under the control of a farmer, both in its own right and because it is oftencorrelated with other elements of a farm operation, such as access to capital resources and informationon new inputs and management techniques. Almost three quarters of all farms globally are less than 1hectare (Von Braun, 2005). With some assumptions about farm size within the categories of Table 2 inVon Braun (2005), it is possible to estimate that farms of 20 hectares or less accounted for about 25percent of total cultivated area in the early 2000s. However this global picture hides dramatic differences.Farms in Asia and Africa average well below 10 hectares while North American farms are well over 100hectares on average. In Africa and Latin America, small-scale farming represents approximately 80percent of all farms (Nagayets, 2005). In Latin America they produce up to 67 percent of total output andcreate up to 77 percent of employment in the agricultural sector (Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations, 2011).

Small-scale farming operations play several critical roles in addressing the needs of vulnerablepopulations. They “feed poor communities – including themselves” along with the majority of the worldpopulation (IAASTD. 2008: 22). They manage a sizeable share of the agricultural land, employ a largeshare of the poorer working community, provide access to food at the local and the regional level, andsometimes have less harmful environmental impacts. Thus small-scale farming must play a major roletoday in addressing the challenges of climate change.17

We know too little about how crops and livestock grown and management practices change with scale toidentify global patterns consistently, but it is commonly assumed that small-scale farms are more likely toengage in mixed crop and livestock agriculture, which might be more resilient to climate change. On theother hand, small-scale operations are less likely to have access to extension services, markets for newinputs and seeds, and loans to finance operations. Gaining a better understanding of the differences infarm activities, and vulnerability to climate change is critical, both to finding ways to improve food securityand to deal with the climate change challenges to agricultural productivity and stability.

1.4.2 Role of women in agricultural production

To address the climate change threats to agriculture, policies and programs must target those who makethe management decisions and carry out the work. In many parts of the world, this is done mostly bywomen. A recent joint report by the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nationsand the International Fund for Agricultural Development (2009) estimated that women account for 60 to90 percent of total food production in their respective countries. In developing countries as a whole,women constitute approximately 43 percent of the agricultural labor force, ranging from 20 percent inLatin America to 50 percent in Southeastern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (FAO, 2011). Hence, programsthat are being designed to improve food security should target women and the activities that theyundertake. For example, targeting women with extension advice would seem to be the most cost-effectiveway to deliver information about improved farming practices generally and climate change responses inparticular. Yet women are almost always underrepresented in extension services as Figure 5 shows forselected African countries.

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17 At the same time, it must be recognized that urbanization is proceeding rapidly in all parts of the world.Using the United Nation medium variant population and urbanization estimates (available athttp://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm, almost 69 percent of the world’s population will be living in urbanareas by 2050 and the rural population will decline from 3.4 million in 2010 to 2.9 million in 2050. At leastin some parts of the world, farm populations will decline and farm sizes grow.


Figure 5. The share of women in agricultural work and in extension services, selected AfricanCountries

Source of figure: Figure SR-WA2 in IAASTD (2008).

Beyond the issue of access to information, women are typically disadvantaged on other aspects offarming. Women are less likely to enjoy the same level of access to agricultural inputs as men which hasimplications for agricultural productivity (Dey 1992, Quisumbing 1996, Thapa 2008 as cited in Agarwal2011). There is very little systematic gender-disaggregated data on ownership of key assets such as land,making it difficult to track trends either spatially or temporally. But the few studies that exist (see FAO,2011 for details) point to large gaps in land holdings. Among all agricultural land holders in West Asia andNorth Africa less than 5 percent are women while this figure is approximately 15 percent for Sub SaharanAfrica. At a regional level, Latin America has the highestaverage share of female agricultural holders. A recent studyfound that overall incidence of land ownership in the ruralpopulation in the state of Karnataka in India was only 9percent for women and 39 percent for men (H.Swaminathan, Suchitra, & Lahoti, 2011). Further, evidenceshows that on average, female-headed households ownsmaller plots than male-headed households.Similarly, women are also constrained with regard tolivestock ownership and other productive inputs andservices including credit, technology, equipment, extensionservices, fertilizers, water, and agricultural labour; all inputs

Box: Extreme weather in Ghanaaffects women disproportionatelyA study in northeast Ghana showsthat women subsistence farmers weredisproportionately affected by droughtand floods. Particularly vulnerablewere single women who lacked thehousehold labour to plant a labourintensivecrop like rice. They alsocould not harness the communitysupport that married women could tohelp undertake house building andrepairs (Glazebrook, 2011).

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needed to cope with climate change (World Bank 2009, FAO 2011). These gendered constraints directlyaffect women’s farm productivity. According to FAO (2011), by addressing the gender gap in agriculturedeveloping countries can experience productivity gains of 2.5 to 4 percent with an associated decline of12 – 17 percent in undernourished people. While this study did not address climate change specifically, itis possible that the productivity gains would be even greater as the effects of climate change becomegreater.

The policy message is that as vulnerable communities face negative shocks (droughts, floods, cropfailure) from climate change, the burden of food insecurity is likely to be borne disproportionately bywomen and girls and there are both efficiency and welfare reasons for targeting food security programsgenerally and climate-change-specific activities to women.

In the next sections we address briefly the potential effects of climate change on the four pillars of foodsecurity.

1.4.3 Availability

Food availability begins on millions of farms around the world. Farmers use land, their family labor andpossibly that of others, and various kinds of equipment to manage the process of producing food. Theychoose what to produce based on the natural resources at their disposal (including soil quality andweather), the inputs they have access to (both previous investments such as irrigation systems andcurrent inputs such as seed and animal varieties), and the market situation they face. Some portion ofwhat they produce is transported off the farm, either by farmers themselves or traders transporting it toprocessors or to intermediate or final markets. According to FAO (FAOSTAT, 2010), the number ofpeople working in agriculture grew from 2.5 billion in 2000 to 2.6 billion in 2010 with the share of totalpopulation in agriculture declining from 42 percent to 28 percent. Global averages conceal greatdifferences across countries. As a general rule, the share of the population working in agriculture declinesas a country develops and has higher incomes per person as Figure 6 shows.

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Figure 6. Agricultural population as a share of total economically active population (2003-2005average)

Source: FAOSTAT.

1.4.3.1 Biological effects of climate change on crops, livestock, and agriculturalsystems.

Systematic studies of the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation across the range of crops,livestock, and fish are in their infancy and more research is needed to understand the consequences andidentify promising avenues for productivity and resiliency enhancing investments. Crops respond mostfavourably to environments similar to those they evolved in – maize in Central America, potatoes in theAndes, wheat in the Middle East, rice in South Asia – and for the climate conditions in which theyevolved. Breeding efforts extend the range of environmental possibilities, and that is especially true forcrops that have substantial genetic diversity or the greatest commercial demand. In relation to climatechange, considerably more research has been done on its effects on grains than on roots and tubers,horticultural crops and feed crops, and there is much more information available on its impacts intemperate climes than in the tropics, and in land-based systems than in marine-based systems.

Climate change affects plants, animals and natural systems in many ways18. In general, higher averagetemperatures will accelerate the growth and development of plants. Most livestock species have comfortzones between 10-30 °C, and at temperatures above this, animals reduce their feed intake 3-5 percentper additional degree of temperature. In addition to reducing animal production, higher temperaturesnegatively affect fertility. Some of the other impacts of climate change on animals are mediated throughits effect on the plants they eat. Rising temperatures are not uniformly bad: they will lead to improved cropproductivity in parts of the tropical highlands, for example, where cool temperatures are currentlyconstraining crop growth. Average temperature effects are important, but there are other temperatureeffects too. Increased night-time temperatures reduce rice yields, for example, by up to 10 percent for

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18 This section draws heavily from Thornton PK, Cramer L (eds), forthcoming 2012, “Impacts of climatechange on the agricultural and aquatic systems and natural resources within the CGIAR’s mandate”.CCAFS Report, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS),Copenhagen, Denmark. This report has detailed discussions on climate change vulnerability of each ofthe CGIAR mandate crops, animals, and systems.


each 1°C increase in minimum temperature in the dry season. Increases in maximum temperatures canlead to severe yield reductions and reproductive failure in many crops. In maize, for example, eachdegree day spent above 30 °C can reduce yield by 1.7 percent under drought conditions. Highertemperatures are also associated with higher ozone concentrations. Ozone is harmful to all plants butsoybeans, wheat, oats, green beans, peppers, and some types of cotton are particularly susceptible.

Changes in temperature and rainfall regime may have considerable impacts on agricultural productivityand on the ecosystem provisioning services provided by forests and agroforestry systems on which manypeople depend. There is little information currently available on the impacts of climate change onbiodiversity and subsequent effects on productivity in either forestry or agroforestry systems. Globally, thenegative effects of climate change on freshwater systems are expected to outweigh the benefits of overallincreases in global precipitation due to a warming planet.

The atmospheric concentration of CO2 has risen from a pre-industrial 280 ppm to approximately 392 ppmin 2010, and was rising by about 2 ppm per year during the last decade. Many studies show yieldincreases (“CO2 fertilisation”) for C3 crops and limited if any effects on C4 plants such as maize andsorghum. There is some uncertainty associated with the impact of increased CO2 concentrations on plantgrowth under typical field conditions, and in some crops such as rice, the effects are not yet fullyunderstood. While increased CO2 has a beneficial effect on wheat growth and development, for example,it may also affect the nutrient mix in the grain (discussed below). In some crops such as bean, geneticdifferences in plant response to CO2 have been found, and these could be exploited through breeding.Increased CO2 concentrations lead directly to ocean acidification, which (together with sea-level rise andwarming temperatures) is already having considerable detrimental impacts on coral reefs and thecommunities that depend on them for their food security.

Vegetables are generally sensitive to environmental extremes and high temperatures and limited soilmoisture are the major causes of low yields in the tropics. These will be further magnified by climatechange (Pe<unicode>241a and Hughes 2007).

Little is known, in general, about the impacts of climate change on the pests and diseases of crops,livestock and fish, but they could be substantial. Yams and cassava are crops that are both well adaptedto drought and heat stress, but it is thought that their pest and disease susceptibility in a changing climatecould severely affect their productivity and range in the future. Potato is another crop for which the pestand disease complex is very important – similarly for many dryland crops – and how these may beaffected by climate change (including the problems associated with increased rainfall intensity) is not wellunderstood.

Climate change will result in multiple stresses for animals and plants in many agricultural and aquaticsystems in the coming decades. There is a great deal that is yet unknown about how stresses maycombine. In rice, there is some evidence that a combination of heat stress and salinity stress leads toadditional physiological effects over and above the effects that each stress has in isolation. Studies areurgently needed that investigate “stress combinations” and the interactions between different abiotic andbiotic stresses in key agricultural and aquacultural systems.

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Most studies of the biological effects of climate change on crop production have focused on yield19. Asecond impact, much less studied, is how the quality of food and forages are affected by climate change;

19 See http://climate.engineering.iastate.edu/Document/Grain percent20Quality.pdf for more details onclimate change effects on grain quality.


i.e., the composition of nutrients in the individual food items and the potential for a changing mix of foodsas crops and animals respond in different ways to a changing climate. Grains have received the mostattention – with both higher CO2 levels and temperature affecting grain quality. For example, Hatfield etal. (2011) summarize research showing that protein content in wheat is reduced by high CO2 levels.FACE experiments reported by Ainsworth and McGrath (2010) and in China (Erda et al., 2010) show thatprotein content of non-leguminous grain crops decreased by 10-14 percent and also mineralconcentrations such as iron and zinc decreased by 15-30 percent for CO2 concentrations of 550 ppmv,compared to ambient levels. Wrigley (2006) reported that yield increase in wheat due to doubling of CO2

comes from more grains rather than larger grains and produces lower protein content and higher starchcontent. The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI, 2007) reported that higher temperatures willaffect rice quality traits such as chalk, amylase content, and gelatinization temperature.

1.4.3.2 Evidence of effects of climate change on agriculture today

Evidence is mounting of the links between human-induced GHG emissions and effects on agriculturalproductivity. For example, recent research by David Lobell and colleagues strongly suggests that risingtemperatures in the second half of the 20th century and early years of the 21st century, and accompanyingchanges in precipitation, have already had observable and varying effects on agriculture across theglobe. Lobell, Schlenker, and Costa-Roberts (2011) find a dramatic difference in the recent past (1980-2008) between the small changes in growing season temperature in North America and the largeincreases in other parts of the world, particularly Europe and China. The consequence can clearly beseen in the changes in yields in Figure 7. Focusing on maize, the U.S. shows essentially zero effect ofclimate change on yield trends while for China, Brazil, and France, climate change slowed yield growthsubstantially. However, regional crop production in some countries have benefited from highertemperatures, observations supported by northward shifts in maize area in the U.S., rice area in China,and wheat area in Russia. Rapidly increasing GHG emissions, especially in developing countries,combined with Growing evidence of negative climate change effects on agriculture, the likelihood ofnonlinear effects of temperature on yields, and hints of the added burden of more frequent extremeweather events suggest an extremely serious challenge for sustainable food security.

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Figure 7. Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields, divided by theoverall yield trend

Source: Figure 3 in Lobell, Schlenker, and Costa-Roberts (2011).

1.4.3.3 Food security and climate change effects after harvest

Figure 8 illustrates the potential for enhancing food security by interventions after harvest and thepotential for negative effects from climate change. Harvest losses on farm, from harvest practices andpoor storage, account for 13 percent of harvested output, and occur predominantly in developingcountries. Higher temperatures and greater humidity from climate change will encourage more damage instored grain from insects and fungal attacks. Animals consume another 26 percent of the harvest. Dietarychanges to reduce meat consumption where it is harmful to human health would significantly reduce thisuse making more available for direct human consumption and reducing pressure to expand agriculturalareas. Distribution losses and waste account for a further 17 percent of the harvest. These losses occurmost frequently in developed countries. Higher temperatures from climate change will increase the needfor refrigeration in the food distribution network.

What seems clear is that investments to reduce losses after harvest generally will also address thenegative effects of climate change. In this case, climate change increases the urgency but not thedirection of efforts to reduce post-harvest loss.

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Figure 8. Losses in the food chain – from field to household consumption

Source: Designed by Hugo Ahlenius, Nordpil based on Figure 1 in Lundqvist, de Fraiture, & Molden,(2008)

1.4.4 AccessEven when availability is not a concern, access to food is affected by climate change due to the disruptionor loss of livelihoods and price volatility of staples. Individuals with high risk of food insecurity are largelyconcentrated in rural areas where food production takes place so their livelihoods will be directly affectedby local effects of climate change and indirectly by effects in other parts of the world. Given the generaltrend for increased urbanization globally, climate change effects will also be felt by the urban poor. Arecent study by Chen and Ravallion (2007) finds that even though poverty is still a rural phenomenon, theincidence of urban poverty to total poverty is positively associated with urbanization ; that is, asurbanization continues, urban poverty rates will likely rise. Climate change could significantly increase therisk of severe undernourishment for the poor. For those whose incomes are just above the poverty lineand who lack private or public safety nets,climate change shocks can make themfood insecure, even if only for a period(affecting the stability pillar).Access is also conditioned by powerimbalances in the social and politicalsphere. For example, support forcommunity-led initiatives such as foodbanks and state-financed food distributionsystems may be reduced during times ofeconomic hardship induced by climatechange.Policy approaches and interventionsgoverning access are typically focused on

Box: Wild harvested food and climate change.According to Arnold et al. (2011) around one billionpeople, likely to be among the poorest of the poor, rely onwild harvested products for food and income. Forinstance a study by Nasi, Taber and Van Vliet providesdata showing that approximately 4.5 million tons of bushmeat is extracted annually from the Congo Basin forestsalone. Wild animal and plant foods add not onlyconsiderable calories but also much needed protein andmicronutrients. As climate change alters ecosystemfunctioning it is possible that these important foods for thepoor will be negatively affected. It is also likely thatrelying on this food source may become a more importantadaptation strategy during natural disasters, droughts,and floods.

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Minagri, 16/04/12,

See general comment for the section 1.2 Assessing direct and indirect impacts of climate change on food and nutrition security today.


the household. But intrahousehold food allocation choices may lead to differential effects of climatechange on access. ‘Women’s” work often includes fetching water, fuel wood collection, food preparationand caring for all household members, leaving women little time to engage in cash-generating activities.When environmental degradation caused by climate change increases the time spent on activities likewater collection, it drives down further women’s ability to earn an income. Given intra-householddynamics it is conceivable that women and girls are affected more acutely during scarcity than men andboys.

1.4.5 Utilization

The quantity of available food is only one of several determinants of the effective utilization of food, withaccess to clean water important for all consumers and maternal education especially important for childnutrition (Smith & Haddad, 2000). The diversity of diet is also important with consumption of a range offresh fruits and vegetables and moderate amounts of protein sources (vegetable, animal or fish-based)and starchy staples recommended by nutritionists. However, dietary trends around the world are towardsconsumption of processed food products with large proportion of sugars, fats and oils, leading to growingconcerns about overnutrition and negative health consequences of obesity, even in developing countries(UN, 2011).

Because efforts to alleviate hunger require provision of food with sufficient energy (calorific) content,public sector research resources have been devoted to improving the productivity of the major staplecrops, especially rice, wheat, and maize that currently account for 50 percent of total calorie consumptionglobally and with much higher shares in developing countries (FAOSTAT). Fewer resources have beendevoted to fruits and vegetables. However, fruits and vegetables are extremely valuable for dealing withmicronutrient deficiencies. They also provide smallholder farmers with much higher income and more jobsper hectare than staple crops (AVRDC 2006). The worldwide production of vegetables has doubled overthe past quarter century [get statistic on fruits] and the value of global trade in vegetables exceeds that ofcereals. More research is needed on the effects of climate change on fruit and vegetable productivity.

By altering the pattern of pests and diseases, climate change can affect utilization by impacting humanhealth and food quality and safety (FAO, 2008). Weather changes, increased droughts and flooding,greater variance in precipitation are all likely to pose an increased risk to human health.

1.4.6 Stability

The fourth pillar of food security is stability; uninterrupted availability and access to food. Periodicinadequate access contributes to food insecurity and results in a reduced nutritional status (FAO, 2008).

Crop production is cyclic with availability during periods after harvest met either by local storage or supplyfrom other regions, domestic or international. Access in the off-season requires availability and income to

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store food or purchase it.Instability from climate change can arise because of increased variability in production induced by climatechange. Extreme events, including excessive temperature at crucial periods in growth, droughts andfloods, are a particular threat to stability. All are expected to become more frequent as a consequence ofclimate change. Climate change is also likely to bring changes in growing seasons with the amount andtiming of rainfall and temperature patterns altered. Shortfalls in production, either from extreme events orshifts in growing seasons reduce local availability and therefore local income and access. These effectsare likely to fall disproportionately on the vulnerable.


Local stability can be also be affected by climate change effects out the regions, such as politicalinstability and price volatility. For example, international grain flows have long been seen as a mechanismto at least partially compensate for the increased variability that climate change will bring. The food pricespikes that began in 2008 were driven in part by weather events that are likely to become more frequentwith climate change. An unfortunate response in some countries was to limit the amount of grain thatcould be exported, exacerbating the effects on availability and raising prices in other parts of the world.The report of the HLPE on price volatility and food security (2011) has recommendations on how tomanage food price volatility that will become ever more relevant as climate change effects become morepronounced.

1.5 Policy messages

This section summarizes the policy messages from chapter 1.

Programs and policies to deal with climate change must be part of efforts to reduce poverty and enhancefood security. Attempts to address climate change vulnerability that are undertaken independently riskusing resources inefficiently and losing opportunities for synergies. At the same time, climate changebrings unique challenges that require modifications to existing food security programs.

Improvements in productivity are essential to deal with food security challenges. Climate changenecessitates research into crops, livestock and systems that are resilient to extreme events. To addressnutritional dimension security in the face of climate change, more research is needed on fruit and vegetableproductivity as climate changes.

Food production systems are extremely diverse, both within individual countries and across nationalboundaries. Climate change will not affect all systems the same, hence the need to adopt a range ofpolicy and program approaches. Small-scale farms account for a large share of global agricultural landuse, rural employment, and often are operated by women. They are more likely to engage in mixed cropand livestock agriculture, which might be more resilient to climate change. On the other hand, small-scaleoperations are less likely to have access to extension services, markets for new inputs and seeds, andloans to finance operations. Policies that address the limits facing small-scale farmers, and that ensurewomen have opportunities for equal access to information and resources will have important productivity,resiliency and poverty-reducing benefits for food security generally and for dealing with climate change.

Vulnerable communities face negative shocks (droughts, floods, crop failure) from climate change, theburden of food insecurity is likely to be borne disproportionately by women and girls and there are bothefficiency and welfare reasons for targeting food security programs generally and climate-change-specificactivities to women.

The report of the HLPE on price volatility and food security (2011) has recommendations on how tomanage food price volatility that will become ever more relevant as climate change effects become morepronounced.

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Minagri, 16/04/12,

Taking into account that the report was controversial and many countries objected to its content, we do not see appropriate that it is introduced here.

Inadequate information is available to deal effectively with many aspects of the food security challengesfrom climate change. We highlight two.

- The biophysical effects of climate change on plant and animal productivity and stability of production,including the effects on pests and diseases that affect food production and post-harvest marketingsystem. Most information is available on the large staple crops, less on livestock (including fish), andeven less on fruits and vegetables.


- How crops and livestock grown and management practices differ with scale and gender and will beaffected by climate change.

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2 ASSESSING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOODAND NUTRITION SECURITY AND NUTRITION TOMORROW: PLAUSIBLESCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE

2.1 Introduction

Chapter one reviewed how the four pillars of food and nutrition security and nutrition have been and are currentlyaffected by climate change in various regions and among various groups, particularly the mostvulnerable. This chapter presents perspectives on how future climate changes might affect food andnutrition security including social, economic and biophysical outcomes for vulnerable groups in regionsand food systems where climate change risks are high.

Because of the complex dynamics among climate and ecosystem change; food production, distribution,and utilization; general socioeconomic development, institutional change and various dimensions ofhuman wellbeing and poverty, scenarios are used to explore possible future outcomes. “Scenarios areplausible and often simplified descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent andinternally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships.” (MillenniumEcosystem Assessment, 2005). Scenarios fall in the middle ground between facts and speculationswhere both complexity and uncertainty are substantial. It is often most helpful to use a variety ofscenarios, constructed from ranges of plausible drivers, to better understand the range of plausiblefutures.

Scenario development starts with identifying potentially negative outcomes in the future for which moreunderstanding might help to inform better policy changes today. We begin with a short exploration ofapproaches and models to develop and use climate change scenarios to understand potential futuretrends of key climate attributes and consequences for sustainable food security. The climate changecommunity has used scenarios extensively to assess the host of economic, social and institutional driversthat determine levels of human-induced GHG emissions (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). Implicit (andsometimes explicit) in these scenarios are changes to the natural, economic and social systems that formthe socio-ecological infrastructure critical for economic development, poverty alleviation and humanwellbeing. Plausible futures for a range of non-climate variables (population, income, technology) aretherefore necessary to add to climate scenarios to develop food security scenarios that include the effectsof climate change. Other groups have used scenarios to explore many topics, including ecosystemchallenges ((Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005), energy futures (Shell International BV, 2008),and water scarcity (Alcamo & Gallopin, 2009).

Vulnerability of food and nutrition security and nutrition to climate change is a function of all the driving factorsmentioned above. Biophysical changes from climate change affect food availability through supplyimpacts (e.g., changes in average yields and increases in variability) and the resulting challenges tolivelihoods of producers. Climate change also has important implications for food distribution and accessas it requires climate resilient road infrastructure and functioning markets and other social and economicinstitutions. In addition to these supply side effects, climate change might affect utilization (demand by

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consumers), not only through effects on their incomes but also consumption behavior. Consequences forfood stability could come from increased incidences of extreme events leading to frequent temporary foodshortages and stresses on resources’ availability often causing political unrests.

Draft V0 for E‐Consultation

This chapter begins with a review of scenarios of the temperature and precipitation effects of climatechange and their consequences for food security. It then reports on recent scenario exercises thatcombine socioeconomic and climate change scenarios to assess the effects on other pillars of food and nutrition security and nutrition and various dimensions of human well-being.

2.2 Climate scenarios and their consequences for climate change forfood and nutrition security and nutrition

Periodically, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issues assessment reports on thestate of our understanding of climate science and interactions with the oceans, land, and humanactivities20. While the general consequences of increasing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs arebecoming increasingly better known, great uncertainty remains about how climate change effects will playout in magnitudes and in specific locations. At this point there is no single emissions scenario that isviewed as most likely. Furthermore, the climate outputs from different GCMs using identical GHGemissions scenarios differ substantially, with no obvious way to choose among them.

All GCM results have the expected general tendencies of increasing temperature and precipitation21.However, global averages from the GCMs conceal both substantial regional variability and changes inseasonal patterns. Divergence between GCM outcomes is particularly sharp in predicting futureprecipitation trends. Figure 9 and Figure 10 map the average annual changes in precipitation from theCSIRO and MIROC GCMs using the A1B22 scenario. There are large differences in the two models’predictions for many regions of the world. For example, although the MIROC scenario results insubstantially greater increases in average precipitation globally, there are certain regions, such as thenortheast part of Brazil and the eastern half of the United States, where this GCM reports a much drierfuture.

20 Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between humans and theirsurroundings, including industrial activities, transportation, and agriculture and other land uses; thesemodels estimate the emissions of the various greenhouse gases. The emissions simulation results of theIAMs are made available to the GCM models as inputs that alter atmospheric chemistry. The end result isa set of estimates of precipitation and temperature values around the globe.21 See Table A2.3 in Nelson et al., (2010) for information on regional differences in temperature andprecipitation outcomes.22 The A1B scenario is one of several scenarios reported in the IPCC special report on emissionsscenarios as part of its third assessment activities (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). The A1 storyline andscenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks inmid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.The A1B scenario has a balance in technological improvements across all energy sources.

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Draft V0 for E‐ConsultationFigure 9. Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050, CSIRO, A1B (mm)

Figure 10. Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050, MIROC, A1B (mm)

Source: Nelson et al., (2010) based on downscaled climate data, available at http://futureclim.info.

The scenario uncertainties at global level are magnified at regional and local scales where individualadaptation decisions. This represents a serious challenge to informed policy and decision makingeverywhere but especially for regions and production systems that are dependent on rainfall (drylandagriculture) and which are home to many of the world’s most vulnerable. Appropriate adaptationstrategies would differ significantly depending whether one needs to deal with likely more drought orflooding climate episodes.

2.3 Availability

Climate change effects on agriculture that affect food security are in the first instance the result ofproductivity loss. Changes in precipitation and temperature will in most locations reduce average yieldsand increase variability in production. In some locations, a combination of temperature and precipitationchanges might result in complete loss of agricultural activity; in a few locations agriculture might becomepossible. Many studies use climate scenario models’ outcomes in crop growth simulation models toassess potential impacts on yields (Reilly et al., 2003; Parry, Rosenzweig, Iglesias, Livermore, & Fischer,2004; Cline, 2007; Challinor, Ewert, Arnold, Simelton, & Fraser, 2009; Nelson et al., 2010) with a widerange of potential outcomes depending on crop, region, GCM and climate change scenario. For example,Figure 11 and Figure 12 show how different climate scenarios can result in very different effects onyields. With identical GHG emissions pathways (the A1B scenario), the MIROC GCM climate results insubstantial rainfed maize yield declines in the U.S. corn belt and parts of Brazil and substantial yieldincreases in parts of India while the CSIRO GCM yield effects are less negative and less varied acrossthe globe. Across the range of crops and climate scenarios modeled in Nelson et al. (2010), the yieldeffects range from increases in a few places to declines of as much as 30 percent. Improvedunderstanding of the potential effects of climate change on agricultural productivity is critical to developingappropriate adaptation strategies. More generally, crop model outputs are likely to understate the effectsof climate change because they do not account for pests and disease stresses.

Swaminathan & Kesavan (2012) suggest that among the regions that are likely at risk of future climatechange, the arid and semi-arid areas of the tropics in Africa and South Asia and in Mediterranean climateof West Asia and North Africa are the most vulnerable. The results from Cline (2007) also suggest thatIndia and Africa is where the highest productivity declines are expected. Similar results of adverseproductivity effects of climate change are predicted for livestock (Neinaber and Han, 2007; Thornton etal., 2009) and marine fisheries (Perry, Low, Ellis, & Reynolds, 2005).

Draft V0 for E‐ConsultationFigure 11. Yield effects, rainfed maize, CSIRO A1B

Figure 12. Yield effects, rainfed maize, MIROC A1B

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http://futureclim.info/

Source: Nelson et al., (2010), Figures 9 and 10.

2.4 AccessSome studies have attempted to construct scenarios that describe access outcomes by combining whatis known about current vulnerability with changes in future availability. A recent study by Ericksen et al.(2011) uses the best available global spatial data on current vulnerability combined with 9 differentcomponents of future biophysical vulnerability from climate change23 to construct a domain-basedthreshold (high and low) assessment of overall vulnerability based on three components of vulnerability –exposure, sensitivity, and coping capacity – in regions of interest to the CGIAR’s Research Program 7(Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security) (see ). For example, Figure 13 shows the vulnerabledomains affected by the change in length of growing period (LGP). In the most vulnerable domains, 14.2

23 Areas that will experience more than a 5 percent reduction in LGP, Areas that will flip from LGP greaterthan 120 days in the 2000s to LGP less than 120 days by 2050, Areas that flip from more than 90 reliablecrop growing days (RCGD) per year in the 2000s to less than 90 RCGD by 2050, Areas where theaverage annual temperature flips from less than 8°C in the 2000s to more than 8°C by 2050, Areas whereaverage annual maximum temperature will flip from under 30°C to over 30°C, Areas where the maximumtemperature during the primary growing season is currently less than 30°C but will flip to more than 30°Cby 2050, during the primary growing season, where coefficient of variability of rainfall is currently high,areas where rainfall per day decreases by 10 percent or more between 2000 and 2050, where theamount of rainfall per rainy day increases by 10 percent between 2000 and 2050.


million hectares will likely have a significant change in LGP with a total population affected of 401 million.They find that other effects of climate change will affect vulnerable regions and populations in differentways.

Figure 13. Vulnerability domains where there is greater than 5% change in length of growing period (LGP).

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The assessments described above have important deficiencies. Most of them do not account foradaptation, either autonomous for anticipatory. For example, the Erickson, et al, report combines futureclimate outcomes with today’s vulnerabilities. The studies tend to focus on average shifts rather thanchanges in variability and extreme events. And they focus exclusively on the challenges from climatechange without considering changes in socioeconomic factors (income, population, government policiesand programs, etc.)

2.5 Use

A few studies have included socioeconomic as well as climate change drivers and allowed for someelements of adaptation. We report results from one of these to indicate the range of plausible outcomes.Nelson et al., (2010) combine a range of crop productivity scenarios based on 5 different climate futureswith three combinations of population and GDP futures (low population and high GDP growth, highpopulation and low GDP growth and an intermediate combination of population and GDP growth) toassess the range of plausible outcomes for food security and human well-being. This study uses bothproxy (per capita income, average kilocalorie availability per day) and direct measures of food security(number of malnourished children under five) (Riely F., Mock, Cogill, Bailey, & Kenefick, 1999; Webb P. etal., 2006).

A central policy message is the importance of economic development in addressing vulnerability. In low-income developing countries today, average kilocalorie availability is only two-thirds of the availability inthe richest countries. With high per capita income growth and no climate change, availability in 2050reaches almost 85 percent of that in the developed countries. With the high population and low GDPgrowth scenario, however, average availability declines in all regions. For middle-income developingcountries, the low population-high GDP-growth scenario results in a 50 percent decline in the number ofmalnourished children; under the high population-low GDP-growth scenario, the decline is only 10percent. For low-income developing countries, the decline is 36.6 percent under the low population-highGDP-growth scenario, but under the high population-low GDP-growth scenario the number ofmalnourished children increases by more than 18 percent—an increase of almost 17 million children.

Climate change exacerbates the challenges in reducing the number of malnourished children. Climatechange increases the number of malnourished children in 2050 relative to a no-climate-change future by

Draft V0 for E‐Consultationabout 10 percent for the low population-high GDP-growth scenario and 9 percent for the high populationlowGDP-growth scenario. In low-income countries under the low population-high GDP-growth scenario,climate change increases the number of malnourished children by 9.8 percent; under the high populationlowGDP-growth scenario, by 8.7 percent. Across the climate scenarios, the differences in price (andother) outcomes are relatively small, because international trade flow partially compensate. For example,changes in developed country net cereal exports between 2010 and 2050 range from an increase of 5million mt in the perfect mitigation scenario to a decline of almost 140 million mt. The trade flow changespartially offset local climate change productivity effects, allowing regions of the world with less negativeeffects to supply those with more negative effects. Hence, another central policy message is theimportance of relatively free movement of food across international borders as partial adaptation toclimate change.

None of these global scenario efforts attempt to address distributional issues within countries and thepossibility that climate change might affect the vulnerable disproportionately although this is a plausibleeffect.

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2.6 Stability

Quantitative scenario exercises of the effects of climate change have not dealt with the consequences ofincreased variability from climate change. The principal explanation for this is that although climatescientists are confident that increased variability will occur, based on the underlying physics of theatmosphere, the GCM outputs have not been designed to provide the necessary data on variabilityneeded by the crop models that are used to assess climate effects on agricultural productivity. There is acritical need for transdisciplinary efforts to address this lacunae.

2.7 Data and modeling issues

Although our ability to model the complexities of both the biophysical and socioeconomic aspects ofclimate change to produce plausible scenarios has advanced dramatically in the past few decades, thereare still major shortcomings that affect our ability to understand the consequences of climate change forvulnerable regions and groups. While the GCMs are generally consistent in their predictions of highertemperatures globally, they differ dramatically in the precipitation outcomes. Crop models are able toaccurately reproduce crop responses to weather and temperature inputs within existing ranges, but theirability to perform in the range of future outcomes is much less certain. And they perform poorly inassessing the effects of changing pest and disease pressures that might arise from climate change.Models of socioeconomic scenarios, especially those that include climate change effects, are in someways more complicated than either climate or crop models. They must take into account biophysicaleffects and include them as part of the complex behavior of human systems. In many ways they are theweakest link in our understanding of the vulnerability of food systems to climate change.

Finally all of these modeling efforts suffer from the poor state of data resources available on human andnatural systems on our planet.

2.8 Policy Messages

Weaknesses in all three types of models – climate, crop and socioeconomic – used to constructscenarios of the effects of climate change and other drivers on the vulnerable mean great uncertainty atglobal, national and local scales about policy and program responses to climate change. SignificantDraft V0 for E‐Consultationefforts are needed to improve the functionality of these models individuals as well as their interactions. Inaddition, the data needed to construct these models are of poor quality and data collection efforts needsignificant resources.

Climate change effects on the vulnerable are significant but are by no means the only threats tosustainable food security. Sustainable development efforts that lead to broad-based economic growth areessential to addressing the needs of vulnerable people and regions. Given the uncertainties in local andregional outcomes of climate change, policies and programs that are based on specific climate scenarioscould potentially be counterproductive. Rather efforts should be based on activities that provide bothsustainable economic growth and increase resiliency to a wide range of potential climate change threatsare most appropriate. This combination of policy goals has sometimes been referred to as climate-smart agriculture. An added element, discussed in the next chapter, is to develop and disseminate practicesthat reduce the growth in emissions from agriculture, low-emissions development strategies.

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3 CHAPTER 3: ADAPTATION: RESPONSE OPTIONS FORFOOD SECURITY CHALLENGES FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

Since the ideas included in this section are not clear, the message that the document is trying to communicate is not understood. Moreover, we find that some of the affirmations in the text are not evidence-based and many of the topics included do not have international consensus.

[This chapter currently is in annotated outline form. The writing team would like feedback on whether wehave identified the relevant topics to be covered.]

3.1 Introduction

• Adaptation is the response by different actors to present and future threats and opportunities fromclimate change. We interpret it to mean adjusting the social, economic and biophysical aspectsof food production to respond to the threats (and opportunities) of climate change and to increaseresilience in the face of greater climate variability. The report recognizes the particular adaptationneeds and vulnerabilities of the poorest regions and populations

• The food system has always adapted to changing circumstances and adaptation to a new climateis a specific example of a broader range of responses to change that agriculture will confront inthe coming years, in particular the serious current challenges posed by poverty and inequalities,and on other hand, the growth in income and population in today’s developing countries

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• Autonomous versus planned, and reactive versus anticipatory, adaptation

• Adaptation to climate change involves general measures that increase the resilience of the foodsystem (interpreted broadly to mean production, processing, distribution and retail) to anyperturbation, as well as specific measures to cope with the particular stresses caused by thechanging climate.

• Successful adaptation will require new practices and alterations in livelihood strategies. It will alsorequire changes of behaviour by all elements of the private sector, retailers and intermediaries inthe food chain, agri-business and the financial sector. It will require action by governments andinternational organisations, and also by civil society, in particular those concerned with foodsecurity, hunger and development.

• It involves identifying present vulnerabilities and potential opportunities, promoting the betterutilisation and dissemination of existing information and knowledge including local knowledge andalternative practices, investing in the generation of new information and local innovation, as wellas reforms to the national and international governance of the food system

• Adaptation and mitigation efforts cannot be fully effective unless women’s roles in the foodsystem are recognized; their constraints and concerns integrated in climate change strategiesthrough women’s engagement and participation as a key stakeholder. At the same time it is alsoa mistake to treat women as a homogenous group; interventions to increase resilience andreduce vulnerability will have to be contextual in approach (Terry 2009). While women aregenerally more vulnerable to climate shocks, a truly gendered approach is essential to ensurethat vulnerable men are also included in any analysis of adaptation and mitigation.

• Adaptation strategies that are not gender sensitive are problematic on several fronts. They may serveto exacerbate existing inequalities between men and women within households and communities.High temperature resistant varieties of crops are usually water intensive which could add to women’sburdens (UNDP 2009). Men and women have differential perception of climate change risks. Thus,

Draft V0 for E‐Consultationwomen’s priorities may not be addressed if they are not participating in the planning stage.Furthermore, it is possible that sub-optimal adaptation strategies are adopted by households topreserve existing gender norms as opposed to risk minimization.

• Overview of rest of chapter

3.2 Lessons from recent adaptation

• Recent increases in global temperature that can be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gasemissions have already led to some changes in agricultural practices, though these are as yetrelatively minor and also affected by other drivers. Examples include the northward shift in maizeproduction in the U.S. and rice production in China. Do these provide useful models ofadaptation, and its limits?

• The response to some recent non-climate change events may help planning for adaptation. Forexample, some regions have recently seen drastic reductions in the water available for agriculturedue to the exhaustion of aquifers. The response to this may inform the response to futurereductions in precipitation.

• To what degree have private, national and international research agendas been realigned toaddress adaptation? What further changes are needed?

3.3 Anticipatory strategies and options for adapting to climatechange

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• The focus in this section should be activities that contribute to sustainable food security whilecreating and supporting resilient livelihoods for people engaged in agriculture

3.3.1 Availability

• In the context of crop production, farmers will need to should consider the adoption of various anticipatory strategies:

Planting different varieties or species of crops Sowing crops at different times of year Changing irrigation practices (including water conservation, use of marginal resources,

rainwater harvesting and capture) Altering agronomic practices (for example reduced tillage to reduce water loss,

incorporation of manures and compost, and other land use techniques such as covercropping that increase soil organic matter and hence water retention of value both intimes of drought and flood).

• It is not yet possible to attribute unambiguously increased frequencies of extreme events(droughts, floods or hurricanes) to anthropogenic climate change but nevertheless responses torecent catastrophes may help prepare for what models predict is very likely to be an earlyconsequence of climate change.

Draft V0 for E‐Consultation Response to hurricanes and typhoons. In Nicaragua, after the passage of Hurricane Mitch in

1998, a study showed how agroecological practices such as crop rotation, green manure,use of natural fertilizers, cover ditches, crop diversification, burning renunciation, etc.preserved an average of 40% more topsoil, had greater moisture retention, and lost 18% lessarable land (Holt-Gimenéz cited in de Schutter, 2010)

Humanitarian responses to drought and floods

Changing post-harvest practices such as grain drying and storage procedures

• Similar challenges will face livestock producers whose breeds will be directly affected by climatechange and indirectly through effects on feedstocks and forage

There are particular issues for pastoralist communities in semi-desert environments whichare likely to be particularly susceptible to climate change; for example traditionaltranshumance routes may no longer be feasible

Adaptation strategies for ruminants (involving for example husbandry, diets and stockingratios) in some types of production systems should seek simultaneously to reduce their roleas a major source of GHGs, a topic covered in Chapter 4.

• Climate change is likely to see the opening up of new fisheries (for example in the increasinglyice-free arctic oceans) as well as movements of existing fisheries [S American sardines?]. Thoseworking in capture fisheries will need to be aware of and be able to respond to these changes.• Food producers will need to be aware of the increased risks of rare events and how they canreduce their damaging effects

Drought

Floods, salt water intrusion, storms

Effects of fire which may be directly affected by climate change as well as indirectly by

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mitigation policies such as increased agroforestry

• Because of the multifaceted nature of adaptation and the breadth of responses related toincreasing livelihood resilience, useful assistance to producers may take many forms.

Economic diversification for increasing livelihood options

Weather early warning systems

Agricultural extension

Infrastructure, such as roads, post-harvest storage, markets

• There are many initiatives towards improving the resilience of agricultural livelihoods alreadyunderway that should be examined. The CG system is doing x, development organizations aredoing y, bilateral and multilateral donors are doing z.• Special emphasis is placed on the food security needs of the most vulnerable.


• Encourage women’s leadership in adaptation and mitigation planning and decision making at alllevels including national level planning for climate change.

• The environmental costs of converting land to agriculture are increasingly large everywhere(especially in terms of greenhouse emissions, discussed in Chapter 4) so adaptation strategiesthat result in more land conversion are likely to especially costly. It is likely that more food willneed to be produced from the same amount of land with less impact on the environment.

• More food can be produced on existing farmland using existing knowledge if food producers areprovided with the resources to respond to price signals and if appropriate investments areundertaken in economic and physical infrastructure (market reform and access to markets).Special attention should be paid to encouraging that women are not disadvantaged, both forefficiency and equity reasons.

• Investment in research is needed into producing crops, animals, and fish with higher yields,higher input efficiencies, and ability to withstand more frequent extreme events. This will requiremore funding of often neglected subjects such as agronomy and soil science that can improveproductivity, resilience and efficiency

• Advantage should be taken of “leap-frogging” technologies to allow low-income country foodsystems to jump to modern sustainable practices that are more resilient to climate change andspread existing farmer practices that have worked in one location to areas with similarenvironmental profiles today or likely profiles in the future as climate change progresses. Womenare often at the forefront of natural resource management. This knowledge should be harnessed.

• The rules governing international trade in food as well as issues of subsidies, tariffs and importrestrictions need to adjusted to facilitate the likely increase in food supply shocks in different partsof the world. It is necessary a prompt conclusion of the WTO Doha Round Agriculture Negotiations, in accordance with its Mandate, to strengthen international disciplines on agriculture trade policies .

• There is a great need for revitalised extension services that provide advice and training thatincludes climate change adaptation. In developed countries there are good models of jointpublic-private funded extension services that already see adaptation as part of their brief, while inleast developed countries initiatives such as farmer-field schools could be extended to includemore adaptation strategies (noting there are many other advantages of these extension modelstoday). Information exchange at local, regional and global levels is critical.

• Measures can be taken to reduce global food price volatility (see CFS HLPE ##).

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As noted before, taking into account that the report was controversial and many countries objected to its content, we do not see appropriate that it is introduced here.

3.3.2 Access

• Lack of access to food is economic, although social exclusion (for example on grounds of gender,class or caste) is also a dimension of access or lack thereof. The access pillar of food securityalso includes preference, where social or cultural preferences cannot be satisfied. War and civilunrest and other physical barriers can also impede or reduce access to food.

• Investment in agriculture and the larger rural economy has a key role in economic developmentas it leads to more food, increased rural incomes, and often to the improved well-being of groupssuch as women that are hard to reach through other interventions. Decades of lack of investmentin low-income country agriculture needs to be reversed.Draft V0 for E‐Consultation• Special attention needs to be paid to reducing excess price volatility, especially where it affectsthe most vulnerable communities.

• Low-income countries with poorly developed markets are likely to require some protection fromexposure to world markets (special measures in WTO parlance) and should be given time totransition to full participation in the global food system.

• Foreign investment can bring much needed capital to food production in poor countries, but toooften takes the form of “land grabs” which are poorly transparent and fails to respect local landrights or exploits the lack of developed land rights in many least developed countries, especiallyin Africa.

• The challenges of maintaining food supplies to larger urban populations in least developedcountries needs particular attention.

• Safety nets will continue to be required to help countries experiencing famine. Looking to thefuture increasing frequencies of extreme events (including from climate change but possibly fromother sources) may increase the risk of famine, though sustainable development if successful

3.3.3 Use

• Levels of consumption of food with high input demands are environmentally unsustainable andoften are damaging to human health. Research is needed on levers of demand modification.Informed debate on issues of consumption needs to be facilitated amongst all consumers.

3.3.4 Stability

• In some production systems, insurance can be a means of buffering against loss due to the likelyincreasing likelihood of extreme events.

• In developing countries where financial insurance may not be available or be too expensive, or inproduction systems where insurance might not be appropriate, other risk reduction mechanismsmust be prioritized.

3.4 Sectoral approaches to adaptation

3.4.1 The private sector

3.4.1.1 Agribusiness

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Minagri, 16/04/12,

The idea is not clear.

• To take a long-term view of investment in food production and to commit resources to producingcrops and livestock breeds better able to withstand the challenges of a changing climate

• To develop mutually beneficial new methods of working with smallholder food producers wheresome of the risk of increased climate variability is borne by the private sector

Draft V0 for E‐Consultation3.4.1.2 Food chain & retail

• Prepare for the increased frequency of extreme events with broader geographical extent, with theconsequent need to

• Diversify sourcing

• Modify where necessary “just-in-time” stocking to allow greater resilience in the food chain

3.4.1.3 Financial sector

• Innovation in insurance for food production in least developed countries, both for individual foodproducers (via microfinance initiatives) and for governments (sovereign insurance). Ensure thatprograms are not biased against women.

• Develop (in partnership with regulatory authorities) economically efficient commodity markettrading mechanisms that are designed to damp rather than amplify the volatility caused byclimatic production shocks

• In partnership with national and international development and green banks to developmechanisms for attracting capital into investment in climate change adaptation.

• See also insights from the CFS study on price volatility

3.4.2 Governments and international organizations

• Provide the information base and risk assessment that allows good policy to be developed

• Improve information gathering, monitoring, data analysis and dissemination making use oftransformational ICT technologies

• Invest in cost-effective civil engineering projects to increase protection of agricultural lands fromextreme events. In cases where such investment is uneconomic land use planning will berequired to foster types of agriculture more resilient to climate variability. Ensure infrastructureinvestment for agriculture and agricultural markets is resilient to climate change.

• Develop integrated land-use policies, in particular to optimise the use of scarce water resourcesat catchment and aquifer scale. Adaptive management procedures need to be developed, andthe legal and treaty basis to deal with trans-boundary conflicts put into place

• Contribute to increasing the skills base to allow food producers to adapt to climate change

• Invest in the fundamental and applied research base to improve climate change adaptation(including through animal and plant breeding, agricultural engineering, agronomy and husbandry,soil science, aquiculture, agricultural economics and the relevant social sciences).

• Increase resilience by provision of safety nets to farmers and others whose livelihoods are at riskdue to climate change; ensure that any interventions are non-discriminatory to vulnerable groups

• Develop national disaster management policies, including insurance schemes for farmers toprotect against natural disasters

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Draft V0 for E‐Consultation3.4.3 The research community

• In addition to the general need for better climate models, there is a particularly urgent need forimproved impact models, and for a better comparative understanding of the outputs of currentmodels.

• There must be a continued refocusing of research from just higher yield to a more complex settraits to optimise, in particular increased efficiency and increased resilience.

• Climate change will require crops with enhanced resistance to drought, flooding and salt-waterintrusion (both through seawater flooding and from groundwater).o Methane emissions from flooded rice crops is a major GHG while rice yields will be affected bydrought and salt water intrusion. This is an example where research to address adaptation and mitigationsimultaneously is critical.

• The response of crop and livestock biotic stressors (for example weeds, pests, pathogens anddiseases) to climate change will be complex and affected by other drivers, in particular how land use the adverse effects of climate change affects the emergence of new diseases and other problems, and how globalisation increases therisk of the movement of harmful species throughout the globe. Development of varieties and breeds withenhanced resistance is a general good but the research base must be capable of reacting quickly tonovel and unexpected biotic challenges that will arise for many reasons including climate change.

• Increasing resilience through the development of new agronomic strategies

o Scalable forms of precision agriculture

o New forms of mixed cropping, livestock/crop integration and terrestrial/aquacultural integration toprovide food security to low income farmers in a more variable climate

• There is a joint social and natural science challenge to understand the role of traditional foods (forexample millets) in providing nutritional diversity and better diets, and how this may be affected by climatechange and what adaptation strategies are possible.

• The possible effects of climate change on capture fisheries is poorly understood, and research onthis and how climate change should be integrated into ecosystem and adaptive management approachesto fisheries is requiredCivil society

• By civil society we mean national and international NGOs, social movements and organizations,workers unions, gender organizations. To act as advocates for the critical needs of the food system toadapt to climate change, and to champion the rights and needs of those whose voices are less likely tobe heard through

• For major humanitarian NGOs to invest in agricultural adaptation as part of their strategies forsustainable development, and in partnership with governmental organisations to plan for theconsequences of the increased frequency of extreme events

• As some major foundations have pioneered in recent years, to develop innovative partnershipswith the private sector to translate advances in science into products and interventions that benefit, andcan be afforded by, low-income food producers.


Cross-cutting issues

• Ensure adaptation measures provide multiple benefits; for example that also contribute towards

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mitigation, improve rural incomes, foster sustainable development, empower women and disadvantagedminorities.

• An enhanced and more informed debate about the risks of climate change and the need foradaptation is needed amongst civil society. Such discourse will be essential to allow national andinternational decision makers to make investments, especially at times of austerity, that will ensure foodsecurity in future decades.

3.5 Policy Messages

• General food system policies designed to ensure demand does not outstrip supply, that nationaland international governance of the food system is improved, that price volatility is constrained withinacceptable limits, that waste is reduced, and that the food system is made more sustainable will all resultin a more resilient food system, better able to withstand climate change shocks.

• The communities whose food security is most at risk from the effects of climate change will mostoften be in least developed countries, be the poorest sections of rich societies, and will be groupsdisadvantaged in some societies, for example because of gender. Climate-change adaptation needs tobe especially tailored to these groups.

• The likelihood of the world acting together to keep average temperature rises below 2°C is smalland decreasing and rises of the order of 4°C are more likely. Though climate change will benefit foodproduction in some areas the net effect over all regions is likely to be very negative. There is much thatcan be done to adapt agriculture to changing climate using existing knowledge about the social, economicand biophysical aspects of food production, and dissemination and implementation of this knowledge iscritical. However, the magnitude and pace of the changes likely to occur will also require new knowledgeand investment in the relative social and natural sciences should be a priority.

• Successfully adaptation of global agriculture and the food system to expected climate change willrequire mobilisation of the most effective practices from all modes of agriculture, realising that no signalsolution or set of solutions will be appropriate everywhere. Techniques drawn from conventional, agroecological,organic and high-technology food production will all need to be deployed. A pluralistic,evidence-based approach, sensitive to environmental and social context, and to different value systems,is essential.

4 AGRICULTURAL MITIGATION OF GREENHOUSE GASEMISSIONSThe approach that is used in this section is not acceptable since it undermines and contradicts the principles and provisions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, mainly

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Minagri, 18/04/12,

The format of this subtitle should be the same that is used for the rest of the policy messages along the document. So, the title should read as follows: 3.5. Policy messages

the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. In this sense, it is important to take into account that only Annex I countries have binding reduction commitments. It is also noted that the document makes a negative appraisal of the relationship between climate change and agriculture, not taking into account that, for this sector, it is a priority to meet the demand for food so as to achieve food security, in a context aiming at the achievement of sustainable development.

4.1 Introduction

As Chapter 1 reported, crop and livestock agriculture globally is responsible for about 15 percent of totalemissions today and land use change (especially deforestation), much of which is driven by expansion ofagricultural area, adds another 15 to 17 percent. Although developing country emissions are low today asChapter 1 reported, their agricultural and land use change emissions will likely grow rapidly unless lowe-missions strategies that also contribute to sustainable food security are actively pursued. Agriculture isunique in that some practices can capture CO2 emissions from other sectors and sequester carbon aboveand below-ground. Most of these practices can also contribute to food security and resilience, and iftargeted properly can contribute to poverty reduction. This chapter discusses the contribution ofagriculture to total GHG emissions and the role of mitigation options in agriculture both to meet growingfood demand and reduce deforestation, and synergies and tradeoffs of mitigation and adaptationactivities.

4.2 Agriculture’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions

Agricultural activities emit greenhouse gases in three ways – direct and indirect24 emissions fromagricultural practices, and land use change caused by expansion of agricultural activities. Directemissions from agricultural production include CH4 emissions from flooded rice fields and livestock, N2Oemissions from the use of nitrogenous fertilizers, and CO2 emissions from loss of soil organic carbon incroplands as a result of agricultural practices and in pastures as a result of increased grazing intensity.This chapter focuses on direct emissions and land use change as these constitute the bulk of agriculture based emissions.

With past expansion of agricultural area, substantial CO2 emissions occurred from soils rich in organiccarbon and with farming practices that resulted in conversion of organic carbon to CO2. Today, net directCO2 emissions from agricultural activities are estimated to be very small globally but land use changedriven by agricultural expansion still contributes sizeable CO2 emissions, both from above and belowground sources. Thus, unlike other sectors such as energy supply, industry, and transport, in which GHGemissions are dominated by CO2, direct agricultural emissions of GHGs are dominated by CH4 and N2O.

Farming practices can reduce or increase the amount of carbon sequestered in a field. Net CO2

emissions from croplands are expected in the regions where agricultural management is extensive andinput of organic materials cannot balance decomposition. These management practices also lead toreduced resilience since soil organic matter holds nutrients and soil moisture, making it available overlonger periods of time. Since the late 1970s, soil organic carbon has increased in some parts of the worldwith growing nutrient inputs, breeding advances and improvements in management (Cai, 2012). Forexample, in China soil organic carbon in croplands increased by about 400 Tg C during the period of

24 Indirect emissions include CO2 from production and transport of fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides, andfrom energy consumption for tillage, irrigation, fertilization, and harvest. In GHG accounting, indirectagricultural emissions are included in emissions from the other sectors (industry, transport, and energysupply). Only direct emissions from agricultural production are classified as agricultural emissions in theIPCC accounting framework.Draft V0 for E‐Consultation1980-2000 (Huang & Sun, 2006). A similar trend was observed in the United States (Ogle et al., 2010).The technical potential for increasing soil carbon (and improving soil quality) is discussed below. Animportant policy message is of the importance of finding and getting farmers to adopt practices that canincrease carbon sequestration and reduce the rate of conversion of forests to cultivated areas, withoutharming food security.

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Hoppstock, Julia Geraldine, 18/04/12,

It would be necessary to include a footnote with the source of information.

Agricultural CH4 emissions accounted for more than 50 percent of CH4 emissions from human activities(IPCC, 2007). Agricultural CH4 emissions today are roughly one third from flooded rice production (28-44Tg CH4 yr-1), and two thirds from ruminants (73-94 Tg CH4 yr-1).25 Monsoon Asia produces more than 90percent of global rice production, thus accounting for an equivalent share of CH4 emissions from theworld’s rice fields. Since harvested area of irrigated rice is growing slowly, the increase in CH4 emissionsfrom rice fields is expected to be small. Furthermore, rice fields are converted at least partially fromwetlands, which also emit CH4, but are classified into natural emissions. Hence, the effective netemissions growth from irrigated rice will be even smaller than IPCC estimates.

In addition to their effects on N2O emissions (discussed below), nitrogen-based fertilizers, particularlyammonium fertilizers, inhibit the CH4 oxidation by soils, contributing to the increase in atmospheric CH4

concentration.

In the future, most increases in agricultural CH4 emissions are likely to be ruminant-based. Ruminantnumbers increased substantially in the last 50 years, particularly in East Asia, and are expected to furtherincrease, especially in developing countries. Population growth of all kinds of animals means an increasein animal manure, which is another important source of CH4. Hence policies and programs to managelivestock CH4 emissions will be particularly important.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an intermediate product or a by-product of nitrogen transformation processes.Agriculture accounts for more than 60 percent of anthropogenic N2O emissions (IPCC, 2007). Onaverage, about 1 percent of N applied to soil is emitted directly as N2O (IPCC, 2007a). Both chemical andorganic nitrogen fertilization results in N2O emissions, with emission rates varying by cropping systems,climate, and other variables. For example, the rate varies from near zero in some soils to 22 percent in anAustralian sulfate acid soil (Denmead et al., 2007). In flooded rice fields the emissions rate is only aboutone third of that in uplands. N2O emissions increase with precipitation (Lu et al., 2006). N2O is alsoproduced and emitted from nitrogen lost from agricultural lands through runoff, leaching, NH3

volatilization, and dissolved organic nitrogen. N2O emissions from nitrogen lost from croplands are calledindirect emissions and are estimated to be similar in magnitude to direct emissions. Animals do notdirectly emit N2O, but livestock manure is a substantial source of N2O emissions, another reason for theimportance of managing livestock to reduce emissions.

4.3 GHG emissions from land use change

Terrestrial ecosystems, including above- and below-ground components are a huge carbon pool. A recentestimate is that 350-550 Pg C is stored in vegetation (Prentice et al., 2001) and 1500-2400 Pg C in soil(Batjes, 1996). There is a very large annual CO2 exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and theatmosphere, thought to be 123 Pg C. Therefore, a small change in carbon storage in terrestrialecosystems or in CO2 exchange rate between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere will result in asubstantial change in the atmospheric CO2 concentration.

25 Animal manure is another substantial source of CH4, but estimated emissions vary greatly withassumptions about management and duration of storage.Draft V0 for E‐ConsultationThe input and output of CO2 between stable ecosystems and the atmosphere is almost balanced, butland use change disrupts this balance. Converting natural ecosystems, particularly forestlands, wetlandsand peatlands, which are rich in organic carbon, to agriculture and pasture use results in losses of carbonnot only due to the removal of above ground biomass, but also conversion of soil organic matter.Generally, carbon in the top layer of soil decreases about 40-70 percent of the original when a newequilibrium is established after converting a natural soil into cropland soil. Total CO2 emissions due toland use change are estimated at approximately 156 Pg C during the period of 1850-2000 (Houghton,2003).

land use change also influences the emissions of CH4 and N2O. It has been estimated that CH4

emissions have been reduced by 10 percent due to the area reduction of wetlands (Houweling et al.,2003). Converting land to flooded rice production increases CH4 emissions, both because non-irrigatedlands extract CH4 from the atmosphere (estimated to be 30 Tg CH4 yr-1) and anaerobic decomposition inflooded rice production releases CH4. N2O emissions also increase when natural ecosystems are

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converted into croplands or pasture but no reliable estimates of their magnitude exist.

The dramatic effect of land use change on GHG emissions26 emphasizes the importance of findingagricultural development strategies that reduce the conversion of non-agricultural land to agriculturalactivities.

4.4 Mitigation options in agriculture

The IPCC (2007) estimates a technical mitigation potential globally of 5.5-6.0 Pg CO2-eq yr-1 fromagriculture by 2030. Soil carbon sequestration accounts for 89 percent of this potential. The carbon sinkcapacity of the world's agricultural and degraded soils was estimated to be 50 to 66 percent of the historiccarbon loss (Lal, 2004). Techniques to exploit this on-farm potential include:

Increasing organic inputs into croplands such as crop residue incorporation and application oforganic manure

Reduction of soil disturbances with practices such as less or no tillage, and reducing grazingIntensity

Restoration of degraded croplands with practices such as erosion control, set-aside, and land useChange

Re-flooding of peatlands

Increase in crop yields by good managements of nutrients and irrigation.

Agroforestry

Essentially each of these practices can also increase productivity and climate change resilience. It isimportant to devise public policies and programs that reduce existing disincentives and provide innovativeincentives to development and dissemination of specific practices of relevance to those in charge of farmoperations.

Mitigation of CH4 emissions from agriculture contributes about 9 percent of the technical agriculturalmitigation potential (IPCC, 2007). Avoiding water saturation in the non-rice growth season and shorteningcontinuous flooding duration during the rice growing season are the most effective options for mitigatingCH4 emissions from rice fields. Mid-season drainage is a practice to interrupt continuous flooding.Delaying incorporation of fresh organic matter until after flooding and incorporation of fresh organic matterin the off-rice season reduces CH4 emissions from rice fields effectively. It is estimated that 4.1 Tg CH4 yr-

26 Other negative consequences include loss of biodiversity and changes in ground and surface wateravailability.Draft V0 for E‐Consultation

1 could be mitigated if fields were drained at least once during the growing season, and a further 4.1 TgCH4 yr-1 if rice straw was applied off season (Yan, et al. 2009). Selection of rice cultivars with low rootexudation rates could also be an option for mitigating CH4 emissions from rice fields.

IRRI is working with national research institutes and farmers in South and Southeast Asia on alternatewetting and drying practices in irrigated rice fields to reduce CH4 emissions. The SRI (System of RiceIntensification) system in India reduces the amount of flooding of irrigated rice, likely reducing methaneemissions as well as saving water and possibly reducing N2O emissions.

It does not appear to be easy to mitigate CH4 emissions from ruminants on a per animal basis, butimproving feeding practices and pasture productivity, adding feeding specific agents and dietaryadditives, and animal breeding would mitigate CH4 emissions per unit of livestock product (milk andmeat). There is substantial potential for mitigating CH4 emissions from animal manures. Aeration ofanimal manure during storage and shortening of manure storage are effective ways to mitigate CH4

emissions from animal manures.

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IPCC (2007) estimates that the technical mitigation of N2O emissions from agriculture is a small share of(2 percent) of the estimated total agricultural mitigation potential. Increasing the efficiency of use ofnitrogen fertilizers would allow reduction in use. This would mitigate N2O emissions from crop productionmaintain or even increase crop yields. And increasing nitrogen use efficiency also reduces the emissionsassociated with production of nitrogenous fertilizer. Alternating dry and wet soil is a key driver of Ntransformations to N2O in irrigated fields so avoiding unnecessary irrigation and drainage will reduce N2Oemissions from irrigated croplands. Application of nitrification inhibitors with N fertilizers has also beendemonstrated to be effective. The effects of controlled or slow release fertilizers on N2O emissions areuncertain.

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) strategies need to take intoaccount equity issues as well as men and women’s differentiated dependence on forest resources. It isestimated that globally, more than 1.6 billion people depend upon forests as their main source oflivelihood (World Bank, 2008). Women are more dependent than men are on forests and naturalresources but at the same time suffer from a lack of secure property rights and from systematicdiscrimination in access to services. In several regions of the world, women’s roles include conservationand maintenance of forest resources which provides an opportunity through the REDD mechanism tocompensate and provide support to their efforts. There may also be employment opportunities for womenwithin the REDD framework (A concern, however, is that women may not be a position to take fulladvantage of the benefits offered by REDD due to their lower literacy and formal education skills (UNDP2009).

Women’s participation in climate change negotiations and decision making has been low due to severalfactors -- their low levels of education, limited access to information, poor visibility in public spaces, andgeneral exclusion from political processes (several studies cited in Brown 2011). While increasingwomen’s engagement in mitigation strategies could lead to improved outcomes, Mwangi et al (2011)suggests that mixed-sex groups could be one solution for strengthening forest management.

4.5 Synergies and tradeoffs between adaptation and mitigation

Synergies and tradeoffs are common in agricultural sector. Therefore, before adaption or mitigationoptions are put into practice, the effects on climate change and food security shall be evaluatedcomprehensively and in lifetime.

Draft V0 for E‐ConsultationSome synergies and tradeoffs have been observed in the adaption to climate change. For instance, withthe increase in temperature, rice production is shifted from south to north in China. This farmers’spontaneous adaptation makes a great contribution to food security in China. However, it makes watershortage even more serious in Northeastern China.

[Discussion of the pros and cons of biofuels to be added about here.]

Increasing soil organic carbon storage by good management practices is generally synergistic because itboth captures atmospheric CO2 and increases soil fertility. However, in the case of flooded rice fields, anincrease in soil organic carbon would increase CH4 emissions, particularly if the soil organic carbon isincreased by incorporation of crop straw. Re-flooding peatlands or wetlands could prevent depletion oforganic matter, but stimulate CH4 emissions.

Irrigation management regimes that increase CH4 emissions reduce N2O emissions and vice versa. Forexample, mid-season drainage mitigates CH4 emissions, but increases N2O emissions. However, eventhough N2O has a higher global warming potential (GWP), the increase in N2O is not enough to offset thereduction in GWP from methane.

Nitrogen fertilization dominates anthropogenic N2O emissions from agricultural sector. However, longtermexperiments showed that synthetic fertilizer N significantly reduces the declining rate of soil organiccarbon in agricultural soils (Ladha et al., 2011).

To meet the growing demand, food production must increase either by improving crop yields from theland already under cultivation (intensification) or expanding land area cultivated (extensification) or both.All these options for meeting food demands will increase GHGs emissions. Relatively, intensification,

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however, is more effective to mitigate the increase in GHG emissions from agriculture (Burney et al.,2010).

4.6 Policy messages

Developing country agricultural and land use change emissions will likely grow rapidly unless low emissionsstrategies that also contribute to sustainable food security are actively pursued. Agriculture isunique in that some practices can capture CO2 emissions from other sectors and sequester carbon aboveand below-ground. GHG emissions from agriculture can be mitigated by good management practices andessentially every one of these practices can also increase productivity and climate change resilience. It isimportant to devise national and international policies and programs that reduce existing disincentivesand provide innovative incentives strategies to development and dissemination of specific practices of relevance tothose in charge of farm operations. It is also important to develop and disseminate practices that canincrease carbon sequestration and reduce the rate of conversion of forests to cultivated areas, withoutharming food security. The dramatic effect of land use change on GHG emissions emphasizes theimportance of finding agricultural development strategies that reduce the conversion of non-agriculturalland to agricultural activities.

Since demand for livestock products (meat, milk, and eggs) will likely grow, policies and programs thatdirectly or indirectly contribute to reduced emissions of both CH4 and N2O per unit of output are especiallyimportant.

Policies and programs that increase nitrogen use efficiency have multiple benefits – reducing farm inputcosts, direct and indirect GHG emissions, and off-farm damage to the environment.

5 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POLICIES AND ACTIONS

5.1 Introduction

In a report of this nature, it is not possible to provide detailed policy recommendations for specificcountries, regions, or groups. Actions that are entirely appropriate in some locations and countries wouldbe completely inappropriate in others. Instead we present a series of policy messages that are intendedto provide guidance for developing nationally-relevant policies and programs and that can also assistinternational efforts.

5.2 Climate change responses should be complementary to, notindependent of, activities that are needed for sustainable foodsecurity

Programs and policies to deal with climate change must be part of efforts to reduce poverty and enhancefood security. Attempts to address climate change vulnerability that are undertaken independently riskusing resources inefficiently and losing opportunities for synergies. At the same time, climate changebrings unique challenges that require modifications to existing food security efforts.

Meeting food security goals will need substantially more investments in public sector research and extension.Climate change will mean both that additional research outputs will be needed to offset its general

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Minagri, 18/04/12,

The main idea and aim in this document shall be food security and not emissions reductions by developing countries, that do not have quantified reduction commitments under UNFCCC.

productivity reducing effects, to maintain productivity in the face of more frequent extreme events, and toadjust to differing responses of crops, livestock, and management systems to climate change. There is anurgent need to increase international cooperation and undertake these investments quickly, because of improvements will take time todevelopment and deliver to farmers.

To make sure that productivity and resilience enhancing technologies are adopted, extension programsshould target those who are making the management decisions, which in many cases are women. This isimportant for enhancing food security generally but becomes more important in the case of climatechange as women’s activities and livelihoods are likely to be disproportionately affected. Small-scalefarms account for a large share of global agricultural land use, and rural employment today, and often areoperated by women. They are more likely to engage in mixed crop and livestock agriculture, which mightbe more resilient to climate change. Private sector research is more likely to benefit large-scale farms.Policies and public investments that address the limits facing small-scale farmers, and that ensure womenhave opportunities for equal access to information and resources will have important productivity,resiliency and poverty-reducing benefits for food security generally and for dealing with climate change.The differential effects of climate change on crops will likely alter the optimal design of extension systems.

Vulnerable communities need special attention in efforts to enhance food security. Climate change islikely to bring more negative shocks (droughts, floods, crop failure). The burden is likely to be bornedisproportionately by women and girls so there are both efficiency and welfare reasons for targeting foodsecurity programs generally and climate-change-specific activities to women.

Draft V0 for E‐Consultation5.3 Climate change adaptation and mitigation require nationalactivities and global coordination

Climate change adaptation and mitigation activities in agriculture must should be implemented on millions offarms and undertaken by people who are often the most vulnerable, in accordance with the principles and provisions of the United Nations Framework on Climate Change. Local lessons learned are mostvaluable when shared. Supporting activities require global coordination as well as national programs.

5.3.1 Adaptation

Climate change will shift existing climates to new locations across political boundaries as well as createclimates that don’t currently exist. Shifting existing cultivars and animals to new locations requires anunderstanding of how existing genetic material performs under a wide range of agroclimatic conditions,improved understanding of technical attributes, global information sharing and the institutionalmechanisms to move genetic material across borders.

The communities whose food security is most at risk from the effects of climate change will most often bein least developed countries, be the poorest sections of rich societies, and will be groups disadvantagedin some societies, for example because of gender. Climate-change adaptation needs to be especiallytailored to these groups, in accordance with national law, policies and priorities.

There is much that can be done to adapt agriculture to changing climate using existing knowledge aboutthe social, economic and biophysical aspects of food production, and dissemination and implementationof this knowledge is critical. However, the magnitude and pace of the changes likely to occur will alsorequire new knowledge and investment in the relevant social and natural sciences should be a priority.

Successful adaptation of global agriculture and the food system to climate change will require

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mobilisation of the most effective practices from all modes of agriculture, realising that no single solutionor set of solutions will be appropriate everywhere. Techniques drawn from conventional, agro-ecological,organic and high-technology food production will all need to be evaluated for their location-specificappropriateness. A pluralistic, evidence-based approach, sensitive to environmental and social context,and to different value systems, is essential.

Environmentally sustainable food production requires good practices that can be continued indefinitely into the future without undermining the capacity of the land to produce food or resulting in the continueddegradation of the environment. The search for these practices, and incorporating the effects of climatechange, is essential in this search for sustainable food security.

5.3.2 Mitigation

Meeting any of the emissions goals of recent UNFCCC meetings will require both reductions in emissionsfrom Annex 1 countries and reductions in emissions growth in non-Annex 1 countries. Mitigation activitiesshould be undertaken where the costs, both financial and in terms of sustainable food security, are lowestand the benefits the highest. This might result in mitigation activities being undertaken in countries withrelatively low historical or current emissions. While emissions are currently low in developing countries,they are likely to grow rapidly unless low-emissions development strategies are followed. These are likelyto be much less costly to implement as part of general development efforts today than done later andindependently. Public policies that support mitigation in agriculture are an essential element of ensuringglobally-efficient mitigation activities. It is also important to support the creation of market basedmechanisms.Draft V0 for E‐Consultation

Efficiency of the agricultural systems could be improved GHG emissions from agriculture can be mitigated by good management practices that in many cases also increase productivity and enhance resilience. Public policies and programs should target these win-winoutcomes. Improving crop yields from the land already under cultivation is generally more effective tomitigate GHGs emissions from agriculture than expanding cultivated land area. Emissions associated withruminant agriculture are likely to grow rapidly unless technologies become available to farmers that allowthem to reduce substantially the GHG emissions per unit of output (meat and milk). Policies and programsthat increase nitrogen use efficiency have multiple benefits – reducing farm input costs direct and indirectGHG emissions, and off-farm damage to the environment.

5.4 Public-public and public-private partnerships are essential

Both public-public and public-private partnerships are essential to address all elements of the comingchallenges to food security from climate change in equitable and efficient ways. This will require greatertransparency and new roles for all elements of society, including the private sector and civil society.Information and other exchanges among national governments on best practices and public technologiesshould be enhanced.

The private sector, including farmers, traders, input suppliers, and seed companies are the actors whoundertake adaptation and mitigation activities. Partnerships between the private and public sectors willmake it more likely that public policies and programs will be designed appropriately to address climatechange challenges.

Transparency in public sector decision-making about adaptation and mitigation policies and programs iscrucial. Participation by the private sector gives them a voice on design that fosters efficient use ofresources. Participation by civil society allows other groups that might be affected by climate change,either directly or through the actions of others, to be better informed about potential outcomes, and tosteer the process towards more equitable outcomes.

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Appendix: Glossary

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We consider that this glossary is not needed in this document. However, if the HLPE decides that the document should have a glossary, it shall include only those definitions where there is evidence and international consensus and the terms that are analyzed in the document, avoiding to use innovative definitions that are not agreed.

This draft glossary draws from the glossary in the IPCC AR4 synthesis report and then adds new terms and editsexisting terms. Changes are indicated with a yellow highlight.Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_appendix.pdf

A.Adaptation

Initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climatechange effects. Various types of adaptation exist, e.g. anticipatory and reactive, private and public, and autonomousand planned. Examples are raising river or coastal dikes, the substitution of more temperature-shock resistant plantsfor sensitive ones, etc.

Adaptive capacityThe whole of capabilities, resources and institutions of a country or region to implement effective adaptationmeasures.

AfforestationPlanting of new forests on lands that historically have not contained forests (for at least 50 years). For a discussion ofthe term forest and related terms such as afforestation, reforestation, and deforestation see the IPCC Report on LandUse, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC, 2000). See also the Report on Definitions and Methodological Options toInventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types(IPCC, 2003).

Anthropogenic emissionsEmissions of greenhouse gases, greenhouse gas precursors, and aerosols associated with human activities,including the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, land-use changes, livestock, fertilisation, etc.

Arid regionA land region of low rainfall, where low is widely accepted to be <250 mm precipitation per year.

AtmosphereThe gaseous envelope surrounding the Earth. The dry atmosphere consists almost entirely of nitrogen (78.1%volume mixing ratio) and oxygen (20.9% volume mixing ratio), together with a number of trace gases, such as argon(0.93% volume mixing ratio), helium and radiatively active greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (0.035%volume mixing ratio) and ozone. In addition, the atmosphere contains the greenhouse gas water vapour, whoseamounts are highly variable but typically around 1% volume mixing ratio. The atmosphere also contains clouds andaerosols.

B.BaselineReference for measurable quantities from which an alternative outcome can be measured, e.g. a non-interventionscenario used as a reference in the analysis of intervention scenarios.

BiodiversityThe total diversity of all organisms and ecosystems at various spatial scales (from genes to entire biomes).

BiofuelA fuel produced from organic matter or combustible oils produced by plants. Examples of biofuel include alcohol,black liquor from the paper-manufacturing process, wood, and vegetable oils including from soybean, palm, andcoconut.Draft V0 for E‐ConsultationBiomassThe total mass of living organisms in a given area or volume; recently dead plant material is often included as deadbiomass. The quantity of biomass is expressed as a dry weight or as the energy, carbon, or nitrogen content.

Boreal forestForests of pine, spruce, fir, and larch stretching from the east coast of Canada westward to Alaska and continuing

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from Siberia westward across the entire extent of Russia to the European Plain.

Bottom-up modelsBottom-up models represent reality by aggregating characteristics of specific activities and processes, consideringtechnological, engineering and cost details. See also Top-down models.

C.

Carbon cycle

The term used to describe the flow of carbon (in various forms, e.g. as carbon dioxide) through the atmosphere,ocean, terrestrial biosphere and lithosphere.

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

A naturally occurring gas, also a by-product of burning fossil fuels from fossil carbon deposits, such as oil, gas andcoal, of burning biomass and of land use changes and other industrial processes. It is the principal anthropogenicgreenhouse gas that affects the Earth’s radiative balance. It is the reference gas against which other greenhousegases are measured and therefore has a Global Warming Potential of 1.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilisation

The enhancement of the growth of plants as a result of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide CO2) concentration.Depending on their mechanism of photosynthesis, certain types of plants are more sensitive to changes inatmospheric CO2 concentration.

Carbon intensity

The amount of emission of carbon dioxide per unit of Gross Domestic Product.

Carbon sequestrationSee Uptake.

Civil society

The term civil society refers to the wide array of non-governmental and not-for-profit organizations that have apresence in public life, expressing the interests and values of their members or others, based on ethical, cultural,political, scientific, religious or philanthropic considerations. Examples include federations, associations and groupsrepresenting farmers, fishers, forest users, herders, indigenous peoples, women, men and youth, social/people’smovements, labour unions, indigenous peoples’ organizations, charitable organizations, faith-based organizations,professional associations and foundations.

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

Defined in Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol, the CDM is intended to meet two objectives: (1) to assist parties notincluded in Annex I in achieving sustainable development and in contributing to the ultimate objective of theconvention; and (2) to assist parties included in Annex I in achieving compliance with their quantified emissionlimitation and reduction commitments. Certified Emission Reduction Units from CDM projects undertaken in non-Annex I countries that limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, when certified by operational entities designated byConference of the Parties/Meeting of the Parties, can be accrued to the investor (government or industry) fromparties in Annex B. A share of the proceeds from the certified project activities is used to cover administrativeexpenses as well as to assist developing country parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects ofclimate change to meet the costs of adaptation.Draft V0 for E‐ConsultationClimateClimate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical descriptionin terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands ormillions of years. The classical period for averaging these variables is 30 years, as defined by the WorldMeteorological Organization. The relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature,precipitation and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system.In various parts of this report different averaging periods, such as a period of 20 years, are also used.

Climate changeClimate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by

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changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decadesor longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistentanthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. Note that the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines climate change as: ‘a change of climate which isattributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is inaddition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods’. The UNFCCC thus makes a distinctionbetween climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and climate variabilityattributable to natural causes. See also Climate variability; Detection and Attribution.

Climate feedbackAn interaction mechanism between processes in the climate system is called a climate feedback when the result ofan initial process triggers changes in a second process that in turn influences the initial one. A positive feedbackintensifies the original process, and a negative feedback reduces it.

Climate modelA numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical and biological properties of itscomponents, their interactions and feedback processes, and accounting for all or some of its known properties. Theclimate system can be represented by models of varying complexity, that is, for any one component or combination ofcomponents a spectrum or hierarchy of models can be identified, differing in such aspects as the number of spatialdimensions, the extent to which physical, chemical or biological processes are explicitly represented, or the level atwhich empirical parametrisations are involved. Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs)provide a representation of the climate system that is near the most comprehensive end of the spectrum currentlyavailable. There is an evolution towards more complex models with interactive chemistry and biology (see WGIChapter 8). Climate models are applied as a research tool to study and simulate the climate, and for operationalpurposes, including monthly, seasonal and interannual climate predictions.

Climate predictionA climate prediction or climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce an estimate of the actual evolution of theclimate in the future, for example, at seasonal, interannual or long-term time scales. Since the future evolution of theclimate system may be highly sensitive to initial conditions, such predictions are usually probabilistic in nature. Seealso Climate projection, climate scenario.

Climate projectionA projection of the response of the climate system to emission or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases andaerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate models. Climate projections aredistinguished from climate predictions in order to emphasise that climate projections depend upon theemission/concentration/radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example,future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realised and are therefore subject tosubstantial uncertainty.

Climate scenarioA plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set ofclimatological relationships that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of

Draft V0 for E‐Consultationanthropogenic climate change, often serving as input to impact models. Climate projections often serve as the rawmaterial for constructing climate scenarios, but climate scenarios usually require additional information such as aboutthe observed current climate. A climate change scenario is the difference between a climate scenario and the currentclimate.

Climate sensitivity

In IPCC reports, equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the equilibrium change in the annual mean global surfacetemperature following a doubling of the atmospheric equivalent carbon dioxide concentration. Due to computationalconstraints, the equilibrium climate sensitivity in a climate model is usually estimated by running an atmosphericgeneral circulation model coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is largelydetermined by atmospheric processes. Efficient models can be run to equilibrium with a dynamic ocean. Thetransient climate response is the change in the global surface temperature, averaged over a 20-year period, centredat the time of atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling, that is, at year 70 in a 1%/yr compound carbon dioxide increaseexperiment with a global coupled climate model. It is a measure of the strength and rapidity of the surfacetemperature response to greenhouse gas forcing.

Climate variability

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Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, theoccurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual weatherevents. Variability may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or tovariations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability). See also Climate change.

CO2 fertilization

See Carbon dioxide fertilization.

Co-benefits

The benefits of policies implemented for various reasons at the same time, acknowledging that most policiesdesigned to address greenhouse gas mitigation have other, often at least equally important, rationales (e.g., relatedto objectives of development, sustainability, and equity).

Compliance

Compliance is whether and to what extent countries do adhere to the provisions of an accord. Compliance dependson implementing policies ordered, and on whether measures follow up the policies. Compliance is the degree towhich the actors whose behaviour is targeted by the agreement, local government units, corporations, organizations,or individuals, conform to the implementing obligations. See also Implementation.

D.

Deforestation

Conversion of forest to non-forest. For a discussion of the term forest and related terms such as afforestation,reforestation, and deforestation see the IPCC Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC, 2000).See also the Report on Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-inducedDegradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types (IPCC, 2003).

Demand-side management (DSM)

Policies and programmes for influencing the demand for goods and/or services. In the energy sector, DSM aims atreducing the demand for electricity and energy sources. DSM helps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Development path or pathway

An evolution based on an array of technological, economic, social, institutional, cultural, and biophysicalcharacteristics that determine the interactions between natural and human systems, including production andconsumption patterns in all countries, over time at a particular scale. Alternative development paths refer to differentpossible trajectories of development, the continuation of current trends being just one of the many paths.Draft V0 for E‐ConsultationDrought

In general terms, drought is a ‘prolonged absence or marked deficiency of precipitation’, a ‘deficiency that results inwater shortage for some activity or for some group’, or a ‘period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged forthe lack of precipitation to cause a serious hydrological imbalance’ (Heim, 2002). Drought has been defined in anumber of ways. Agricultural drought relates to moisture deficits in the topmost 1 metre or so of soil (the root zone)that affect crops, meteorological drought is mainly a prolonged deficit of precipitation, and hydrologic drought isrelated to below-normal stream flow, lake and groundwater levels. A megadrought is a long drawn out and pervasivedrought, lasting much longer than normal, usually a decade or more.

E.

Economic (mitigation) potential

See Mitigation potential.

Ecosystem

A system of living organisms interacting with each other and their physical environment. The boundaries of whatcould be called an ecosystem are somewhat arbitrary, depending on the focus of interest or study. Thus, the extent ofan ecosystem may range from very small spatial scales to, ultimately, the entire Earth.

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El Nińo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The term El Niño was initially used to describe a warm-water current that periodically flows along the coast ofEcuador and Perú, disrupting the local fishery. It has since become identified with a basinwide warming of the tropicalPacific east of the dateline. This oceanic event is associated with a fluctuation of a global-scale tropical andsubtropical surface pressure pattern called the Southern Oscillation. This coupled atmosphereocean phenomenon,with preferred time scales of two to about seven years, is collectively known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, orENSO. It is often measured by the surface pressure anomaly difference between Darwin and Tahiti and the seasurface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. During an ENSO event, the prevailing trade windsweaken, reducing upwelling and altering ocean currents such that the sea surface temperatures warm, furtherweakening the trade winds. This event has a great impact on the wind, sea surface temperature and precipitationpatterns in the tropical Pacific. It has climatic effects throughout the Pacific region and in many other parts of theworld, through global teleconnections. The cold phase of ENSO is called La Niña.

Emission scenario

A plausible representation of the future development of emissions of substances that are potentially radiatively active(e.g., greenhouse gases, aerosols), based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about drivingforces (such as demographic and socioeconomic development, technological change) and their key relationships.Concentration scenarios, derived from emission scenarios, are used as input to a climate model to compute climateprojections. In IPCC (1992) a set of emission scenarios was presented which were used as a basis for the climateprojections in IPCC (1996). These emission scenarios are referred to as the IS92 scenarios. In the IPCC SpecialReport on Emission Scenarios (Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000) new emission scenarios, the so-called SRESscenarios, were published. For the meaning of some terms related to these scenarios, see SRES scenarios.

Emission(s) trading

A market-based approach to achieving environmental objectives. It allows those reducing greenhouse gas emissionsbelow their emission cap to use or trade the excess reductions to offset emissions at another source inside or outsidethe country. In general, trading can occur at the intra-company, domestic, and international levels. The SecondAssessment Report by the IPCC adopted the convention of using permits for domestic trading systems and quotasfor international trading systems. Emissions trading under Article 17 of the Kyoto Protocol is a tradable quota systembased on the assigned amounts calculated from the emission reduction and limitation commitments listed in Annex Bof the Protocol.

Emission trajectory

A projected development in time of the emission of a greenhouse gas or group of greenhouse gases, aerosols andgreenhouse gas precursors.Draft V0 for E‐ConsultationEcosystem servicesThe benefits people obtain from ecosystems. These include provisioning services such as food and water; regulatingservices such as flood and disease control; cultural services such as spiritual, recreational, and cultural benefits; andsupporting services such as nutrient cycling that maintain the conditions for life on Earth. The concept ‘‘ecosystemgoods and services’’ is synonymous with ecosystem services.

ErosionThe process of removal and transport of soil and rock by weathering, mass wasting, and the action of streams,glaciers, waves, winds, and underground water.

EvapotranspirationThe combined process of water evaporation from the Earth’s surface and transpiration from vegetation.

External forcingExternal forcing refers to a forcing agent outside the climate system causing a change in the climate system. Volcaniceruptions, solar variations and anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere and land use change areexternal forcings.

Extreme weather eventAn event that is rare at a particular place and time of year. Definitions of “rare” vary, but an extreme weather eventwould normally be as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile of the observed probability density function. Bydefinition, the characteristics of what is called extreme weather may vary from place to place in an absolute sense.Single extreme events cannot be simply and directly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, as there is always afinite chance the event in question might have occurred naturally. When a pattern of extreme weather persists forsome time, such as a season, it may be classed as an extreme climate event, especially if it yields an average or totalthat is itself extreme (e.g., drought or heavy rainfall over a season).

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F.

Food securityA situation that exists when people have secure access to sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food for normalgrowth, development and an active and healthy life. Food insecurity may be caused by the unavailability oruncertainty about future availability of food, insufficient purchasing power, inappropriate distribution, or inadequateuse of food at the household level.

ForecastSee Climate forecast; Climate projection; Projection.

ForestA vegetation type dominated by trees. Many definitions of the term forest are in use throughout the world, reflectingwide differences in biogeophysical conditions, social structure, and economics. Particular criteria apply under theKyoto Protocol. For a discussion of the term forest and related terms such as afforestation, reforestation, anddeforestation see the IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (IPCC, 2000). See also theReport on Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation ofForests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types (IPCC, 2003)

Fossil fuelsCarbon-based fuels from fossil hydrocarbon deposits, including coal, peat, oil, and natural gas.

G.

Global surface temperatureThe global surface temperature is an estimate of the global mean surface air temperature. However, for changes overtime, only anomalies, as departures from a climatology, are used, most commonly based on the area-weighted globalaverage of the sea surface temperature anomaly and land surface air temperature anomaly.Draft V0 for E‐ConsultationGlobal Warming Potential (GWP)An index, based upon radiative properties of well mixed greenhouse gases, measuring the radiative forcing of a unitmass of a given well mixed greenhouse gas in today’s atmosphere integrated over a chosen time horizon, relative tothat of carbon dioxide. The GWP represents the combined effect of the differing times these gases remain in theatmosphere and their relative effectiveness in absorbing outgoing thermal infrared radiation. The Kyoto Protocol isbased on GWPs from pulse emissions over a 100 year time frame.

Greenhouse effectGreenhouse gases effectively absorb thermal infrared radiation, emitted by the Earth’s surface, by the atmosphereitself due to the same gases, and by clouds. Atmospheric radiation is emitted to all sides, including downward to theEarth’s surface. Thus greenhouse gases trap heat within the surface-troposphere system. This is called thegreenhouse effect. Thermal infrared radiation in the troposphere is strongly coupled to the temperature of theatmosphere at the altitude at which it is emitted. In the troposphere, the temperature generally decreases with height.Effectively, infrared radiation emitted to space originates from an altitude with a temperature of, on average, –19°C, inbalance with the net incoming solar radiation, whereas the Earth’s surface is kept at a much higher temperature of,on average, +14°C. An increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases leads to an increased infrared opacity ofthe atmosphere, and therefore to an effective radiation into space from a higher altitude at a lower temperature. Thiscauses a radiative forcing that leads to an enhancement of the greenhouse effect, the so-called enhancedgreenhouse effect.

Greenhouse gas (GHG)Greenhouse gases are those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb andemit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of thermal infrared radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface,the atmosphere itself, and by clouds. This property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide(CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and ozone (O3) are the primary greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere.Moreover, there are a number of entirely human-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as the halocarbonsand other chlorine and bromine containing substances, dealt with under the Montreal Protocol. Beside CO2, N2O andCH4, the Kyoto Protocol deals with the greenhouse gases sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) andperfluorocarbons (PFCs).

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all goods and services produced within a nation.

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H.

Hydrological cycleThe cycle in which water evaporates from the oceans and the land surface, is carried over the Earth in atmosphericcirculation as water vapour, condensates to form clouds, precipitates again as rain or snow, is intercepted by treesand vegetation, provides runoff on the land surface, infiltrates into soils, recharges groundwater, discharges intostreams, and ultimately, flows out into the oceans, from which it will eventually evaporate again (AMS, 2000). Thevarious systems involved in the hydrological cycle are usually referred to as hydrological systems.

I.

(Climate change) Impact assessmentThe practice of identifying and evaluating, in monetary and/or non-monetary terms, the effects of climate change onnatural and human systems.

(Climate change) ImpactsThe effects of climate change on natural and human systems. Depending on the consideration of adaptation, one candistinguish between potential impacts and residual impacts: Potential impacts: all impacts that may occur given aprojected change in climate, without considering adaptation; Residual impacts: the impacts of climate change thatwould oc cur after adaptation; See also aggregate impacts, market impacts, and non-market impacts.


ImplementationImplementation describes the actions taken to meet commitments under a treaty and encompasses legal andeffective phases. Legal implementation refers to legislation, regulations, judicial decrees, including other actions suchas efforts to administer progress which governments take to translate international accords into domestic law andpolicy. Effective implementation needs policies and programmes that induce changes in the behaviour and decisionsof target groups. Target groups then take effective measures of mitigation and adaptation. See also Compliance.

Indigenous peoplesNo internationally accepted definition of indigenous peoples exists. Common characteristics often applied underinternational law, and by United Nations agencies to distinguish indigenous peoples include: residence within orattachment to geographically distinct traditional habitats, ancestral territories, and their natural resources;maintenance of cultural and social identities, and social, economic, cultural and political institutions separate frommainstream or dominant societies and cultures; descent from population groups present in a given area, mostfrequently before modern states or territories were created and current borders defined; and self-identification asbeing part of a distinct indigenous cultural group, and the desire to preserve that cultural identity.

Induced technological changeSee technological change.

Industrial revolutionA period of rapid industrial growth with far-reaching social and economic consequences, beginning in Britain duringthe second half of the eighteenth century and spreading to Europe and later to other countries including the UnitedStates. The invention of the steam engine was an important trigger of this development. The industrial revolutionmarks the beginning of a strong increase in the use of fossil fuels and emission of, in particular, fossil carbon dioxide.In this Report the terms pre-industrial and industrial refer, somewhat arbitrarily, to the periods before and after 1750,respectively.

InfrastructureThe basic equipment, utilities, productive enterprises, installations, and services essential for the development,operation, and growth of an organization, city, or nation.

Integrated assessmentA method of analysis that combines results and models from the physical, biological, economic and social sciences,and the interactions between these components in a consistent framework to evaluate the status and theconsequences of environmental change and the policy responses to it. Models used to carry out such analysis arecalled Integrated Assessment Models.

Integrated water resources management (IWRM)

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The prevailing concept for water management which, however, has not been defined unambiguously. IWRM is basedon four principles that were formulated by the International Conference on Water and the Environment in Dublin,1992: 1) fresh water is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life, development and the environment; 2)water development and management should be based on a participatory approach, involving users, planners andpolicymakers at all levels; 3) women play a central part in the provision, management and safeguarding of water; 4)water has an economic value in all its competing uses and should be recognised as an economic good.

Intensification

J.

Joint Implementation (JI)A market-based implementation mechanism defined in Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol, allowing Annex I countries orcompanies from these countries to implement projects jointly that limit or reduce emissions or enhance sinks, and toshare the Emissions Reduction Units. JI activity is also permitted in Article 4.2(a) of the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). See also Kyoto Mechanisms; Activities Implemented Jointly.Draft V0 for E‐ConsultationK.

Kyoto Mechanisms (also called Flexibility Mechanisms)Economic mechanisms based on market principles that parties to the Kyoto Protocol can use in an attempt to lessenthe potential economic impacts of greenhouse gas emission-reduction requirements. They include JointImplementation (Article 6), Clean Development Mechanism (Article 12), and Emissions Trading (Article 17).

Kyoto ProtocolThe Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in1997 in Kyoto, Japan, at the Third Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC. It contains legallybinding commitments, in addition to those included in the UNFCCC. Countries included in Annex B of the Protocol(most Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries and countries with economies in transition)agreed to reduce their anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions ( carbon dioxide , methane , nitrous oxide ,hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulphur hexafluoride) by at least 5% below 1990 levels in the commitmentperiod 2008 to 2012. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005.

L.

Land use and Land-use changeLand use refers to the total of arrangements, activities and inputs undertaken in a certain land cover type (a set ofhuman actions). The term land use is also used in the sense of the social and economic purposes for which land ismanaged (e.g., grazing, timber extraction, and conservation).Land-use change refers to a change in the use or management of land by humans, which may lead to a change inland cover. Land cover and landuse change may have an impact on the surface albedo, evapotranspiration, sourcesand sinks of greenhouse gases, or other properties of the climate system and may thus have a radiative forcingand/or other impacts on climate, locally or globally. See also: the IPCC Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, andForestry (IPCC, 2000).

LikelihoodThe likelihood of an occurrence, an outcome or a result, where this can be estimated probabilistically, is expressed inIPCC reports using a standard terminology defined as follows:

Terminology //// Likelihood of the occurrence Virtually certain >99% probability of occurrence

Very likely >90% probability

Likely >66% probability

More likely than not >50% probability

About as likely as not 33 to 66% probability

Unlikely <33% probability

Very unlikely <10% probability

Exceptionally unlikely <1% probability

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See also Confidence; Uncertainty

M.

Macroeconomic costsThese costs are usually measured as changes in Gross Domestic Product or changes in the growth of GrossDomestic Product, or as loss of welfare or of consumption.

Market impactsImpacts that can be quantified in monetary terms, and directly affect Gross Domestic Product – e.g. changes in theprice of agricultural inputs and/or goods. See also Non-market impacts.Draft V0 for E‐ConsultationMeasuresMeasures are technologies, processes, and practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions or effects belowanticipated future levels. Examples of measures are renewable energy technologies, waste minimisation processes,and public transport commuting practices, etc. See also Policies.

MetagenomicsMetagenomics is a technology to explore the DNA directly isolated from an environmental sample. This DNArepresents the total DNA of all the organisms (mostly microbial) inhabiting the environment and it is named themetagenome. Typically, several hundred up to several thousand different microbial species can be present in asingle metagenome.

It is quite obvious that metagenomics can sufficiently contribute in resolving problems associated with climatechange. There are two principal directions for such contribution. The first one is based on the fact that total planetarymicrobiome (all microorganisms of Earth) is probably the largest part of biosphere (by biomass and activity)responsible for the most sufficient part of global photosynthesis and carbon cycling on Earth exerting a substantialinfluence on the atmosphere and therefore the climate. It is clear that metagenomics which is basically microbial canhelp us begin to understand the role of microbes in climate change. This role is likely significantly underestimated andlinks for example between greenhouse gas emission and global warming can be much fuzzier than previouslythought. The second direction is based on such fundamental feature of microbial communities as extremely highadaptability. Every particular microbial community can quickly respond to any changes (abiotic and biotic) in theenvironment. These changes are immediately reflected in the taxonomic and functional structure of metagenome ormetatranscriptome (collection of all RNA transcripts obtained from environmental sample). This feature ofmicrobiome gives a very promising tool for detection any changes in the environment including changes caused byhidden factors. The last can be critically important for research programs for identification of risks and adaptation ofagriculture to agro-climatic metamorphosis, ensuring the sustainability of agricultural landscapes and the formation ofoptimal land use infrastructure, including prevention of degradation and conservation of the soil fertility.

Methane (CH4)Methane is one of the six greenhouse gases to be mitigated under the Kyoto Protocol and is the major component ofnatural gas and associated with all hydrocarbon fuels, animal husbandry and agriculture. Coal-bed methane is thegas found in coal seams.

Methane recoveryMethane emissions, e.g. from oil or gas wells, coal beds, peat bogs, gas transmission pipelines, landfills, oranaerobic digesters, may be captured and used as a fuel or for some other economic purpose (e.g. chemicalfeedstock).

MetricA consistent measurement of a characteristic of an object or activity that is otherwise difficult to quantify.

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)A set of time-bound and measurable goals for combating poverty, hunger, disease, illiteracy, discrimination againstwomen and environmental degradation, agreed at the UN Millennium Summit in 2000.

MitigationTechnological change and substitution that reduce resource inputs and emissions per unit of output. Although severalsocial, economic and technological policies would produce an emission reduction, with respect to climate change,mitigation means implementing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance sinks.

Mitigative capacity

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This is a country’s ability to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or to enhance natural sinks, whereability refers to skills, competencies, fitness and proficiencies that a country has attained and depends on technology,institutions, wealth, equity, infrastructure and information. Mitigative capacity is rooted in a country’s sustainabledevelopment path.


Mitigation PotentialIn the context of climate change mitigation, the mitigation potential is the amount of mitigation that could be – but isnot yet – realised over time.

Market potential is the mitigation potential based on private costs and private discount rates, which might be expectedto occur under forecast market conditions, including policies and measures currently in place, noting that barriers limitactual uptake. Private costs and discount rates reflect the perspective of private consumers and companies.

Economic potential is the mitigation potential that takes into account social costs and benefits and social discountrates, assuming that market efficiency is improved by policies and measures and barriers are removed. Social costsand discount rates reflect the perspective of society. Social discount rates are lower than those used by privateinvestors.

Studies of market potential can be used to inform policy makers about mitigation potential with existing policies andbarriers, while studies of economic potential show what might be achieved if appropriate new and additional policieswere put into place to remove barriers and include social costs and benefits. The economic potential is thereforegenerally greater than the market potential.

Technical potential is the amount by which it is possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or improve energyefficiency by implementing a technology or practice that has already been demonstrated. No explicit reference tocosts is made but adopting ‘practical constraints’ may take implicit economic considerations into account.

MonsoonA monsoon is a tropical and subtropical seasonal reversal in both the surface winds and associated precipitation,caused by differential heating between a continental-scale land mass and the adjacent ocean. Monsoon rains occurmainly over land in summer.

MorbidityRate of occurrence of disease or other health disorder within a population, taking account of the age-specificmorbidity rates. Morbidity indicators include chronic disease incidence/ prevalence, rates of hospitalisation, primarycare consultations, disability-days (i.e., days of absence from work), and prevalence of symptoms.

MortalityRate of occurrence of death within a population; calculation of mortality takes account of age-specific death rates,and can thus yield measures of life expectancy and the extent of premature death.

Multifunctionality

N.

Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climatechange (NWP)The Nairobi work programme (NWP) is undertaken under the auspices of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific andTechnological Advice (SBSTA) of the UNFCCC. Its objective is to assist all Parties, but in particular developingcountries to improve their understanding and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate changeand make informed decisions on practical adaptation actions and measures to respond to climate change on a soundscientific, technical and socio-economic basis, taking into account current and future climate change and variability.

Net market benefitsClimate change, especially moderate climate change, is expected to bring positive and negative impacts to marketbasedsectors, but with significant differences across different sectors and regions and depending on both negativemarket-based benefits and costs summed across all sectors and all regions for a given period is called net marketbenefits. Net market benefits exclude any non-market impacts.


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Nitrogen use efficiencyNitrous oxide (N2O)One of the six types of greenhouse gases to be curbed under the Kyoto Protocol. The main anthropogenic source ofnitrous oxide is agriculture (soil and animal manure management), but important contributions also come fromsewage treatment, combustion of fossil fuel, and chemical industrial processes. Nitrous oxide is also producednaturally from a wide variety of biological sources in soil and water, particularly microbial action in wet tropical forests.

Non-governmental Organisation (NGO)A non-profit group or association organised outside of institutionalised political structures to realise particular socialand/or environmental objectives or serve particular constituencies. Source: http://www.edu.gov.nf.ca/curriculum/teched/resources/glos-biodiversity.html

Non-market impactsImpacts that affect ecosystems or human welfare, but that are not easily expressed in monetary terms, e.g., anincreased risk of premature death, or increases in the number of people at risk of hunger. See also market impacts.

O.

Ocean acidificationA decrease in the pH of sea water due to the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide.

Ozone (O3)Ozone, the tri-atomic form of oxygen, is a gaseous atmospheric constituent. In the troposphere, ozone is created bothnaturally and by photochemical reactions involving gases resulting from human activities (smog). Troposphere ozoneacts as a greenhouse gas. In the stratosphere, ozone is created by the interaction between solar ultraviolet radiationand molecular oxygen (O2). Stratospheric ozone plays a dominant role in the stratospheric radiative balance. Itsconcentration is highest in the ozone layer.

P.

Participatory crop breedingPatterns of climate variabilityNatural variability of the climate system, in particular on seasonal and longer time scales, predominantly occurs withpreferred spatial patterns and time scales, through the dynamical characteristics of the atmospheric circulation andthrough interactions with the land and ocean surfaces. Such patterns are often called regimes, modes orteleconnections. Examples are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA), the ElNiño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern Annular Mode (NAM; previously called Arctic Oscillation, AO) andthe Southern Annular Mode (SAM; previously called the Antarctic Oscillation, AAO). Many of the prominent modes ofclimate variability are discussed in section 3.6 of the Working Group I Report.

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)Among the six greenhouse gases to be abated under the Kyoto Protocol. These are by-products of aluminiumsmelting and uranium enrichment. They also replace chlorofluorocarbons in manufacturing semiconductors.

PermafrostGround (soil or rock and included ice and organic material) that remains at or below 0°C for at least two consecutiveyears.

PhotosynthesisThe process by which green plants, algae and some bacteria take carbon dioxide from the air (or bicarbonate inwater) to build carbohydrates. There are several pathways of photosynthesis with different responses to atmosphericcarbon dioxide concentrations. See Carbon dioxide fertilisation.Draft V0 for E‐ConsultationPoliciesIn United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) parlance, policies are taken and/ormandated by a government – often in conjunction with business and industry within its own country, or with othercountries – to accelerate mitigation and adaptation measures. Examples of policies are carbon or other energy taxes,fuel efficiency standards for automobiles, etc. Common and co-ordinated or harmonised policies refer to thoseadopted jointly by parties. See also Measures.

PortfolioA coherent set of a variety of measures and/or technologies that policy makers can use to achieve a postulated policy

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target. By widening the scope in measures and technologies more diverse events and uncertainties can beaddressed.

ProjectionA potential future evolution of a quantity or set of quantities, often computed with the aid of a model. Projections aredistinguished from predictions in order to emphasise that projections involve assumptions concerning, for example,future socio-economic and technological developments that may or may not be realised, and are therefore subject tosubstantial uncertainty. See also Climate projection; Climate prediction.

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)The purchasing power of a currency is expressed using a basket of goods and services that can be bought with agiven amount in the home country. International comparison of e.g. Gross Domestic Products (GDP) of countries canbe based on the purchasing power of currencies rather than on current exchange rates. PPP estimates tend to lowerper capita GDPs in industrialised countries and raise per capita GDPs in developing countries.

R.

Radiative forcingRadiative forcing is the change in the net, downward minus upward, irradiance (expressed in Watts per square metre,W/m2) at the tropopause due to a change in an external driver of climate change, such as, for example, a change inthe concentration of carbon dioxide or the output of the Sun. Radiative forcing is computed with all troposphericproperties held fixed at their unperturbed values, and after allowing for stratospheric temperatures, if perturbed, toreadjust to radiative-dynamical equilibrium. Radiative forcing is called instantaneous if no change in stratospherictemperature is accounted for. For the purposes of this report, radiative forcing is further defined as the changerelative to the year 1750 and, unless otherwise noted, refers to a global and annual average value.

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD)Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) is an effort to create a financial value for thecarbon stored in forests, offering incentives for developing countries to reduce emissions from forested lands andinvest in low-carbon paths to sustainable development. “REDD+” goes beyond deforestation and forest degradation,and includes the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks.

ReforestationPlanting of forests on lands that have previously contained forests but that have been converted to some other use.For a discussion of the term forest and related terms such as afforestation, reforestation and deforestation, see theIPCC Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC, 2000). See also the Report on Definitions andMethodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation of Forests and Devegetationof Other Vegetation Types (IPCC, 2003)

ResilienceThe ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and waysof functioning, the capacity for self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change.

Draft V0 for E‐Consultation(Five) Rome Principles for Sustainable Global Food SecurityThe 2009 declaration of the world summit on food security identified five principles to meet the strategic objectives ofthe summit.

Principle 1: Invest in country-owned plans, aimed at channelling resources to well designed and results-basedprogrammes and partnerships.

Principle 2: Foster strategic coordination at national, regional and global level to improve governance, promote betterallocation of resources, avoid duplication of efforts and identify response-gaps.

Principle 3: Strive for a comprehensive twin-track approach to food security that consists of: 1) direct action toimmediately tackle hunger for the most vulnerable and 2) medium- and long-term sustainable agricultural, foodsecurity, nutrition and rural development programmes to eliminate the root causes of hunger and poverty, includingthrough the progressive realization of the right to adequate food.

Principle 4: Ensure a strong role for the multilateral system by sustained improvements in efficiency, responsiveness,coordination and effectiveness of multilateral institutions.

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Principle 5: Ensure sustained and substantial commitment by all partners to investment in agriculture and foodsecurity and nutrition, with provision of necessary resources in a timely and reliable fashion, aimed at multi-year plansand programmes.

S.

SalinisationThe accumulation of salts in soils.

Saltwater intrusionDisplacement of fresh surface water or groundwater by the advance of saltwater due to its greater density. Thisusually occurs in coastal and estuarine areas due to reducing land-based influence (e.g., either from reduced runoffand associated groundwater recharge, or from excessive water withdrawals from aquifers) or increasing marineinfluence (e.g., relative sea-level rise).

ScenarioA plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internallyconsistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. Scenarios may be derived from projections,but are often based on additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline. Seealso SRES scenarios; Climate scenario; Emission scenarios.

Sea level change/sea level riseSea level can change, both globally and locally, due to (i) changes in the shape of the ocean basins, (ii) changes inthe total mass of water and (iii) changes in water density. Factors leading to sea level rise under global warminginclude both increases in the total mass of water from the melting of land-based snow and ice, and changes in waterdensity from an increase in ocean water temperatures and salinity changes. Relative sea level rise occurs wherethere is a local increase in the level of the ocean relative to the land, which might be due to ocean rise and/or landlevel subsidence. See also Mean Sea Level, Thermal expansion.

SensitivitySensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or climatechange. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range, orvariability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due tosea level rise). This concept of sensitivity is not to be confused with climate sensitivity, which is defined separatelyabove.

SinkAny process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhousegas or aerosol from the atmosphere.Draft V0 for E‐ConsultationSoil temperatureThe temperature of the ground near the surface (often within the first 10cm).

SourceSource mostly refers to any process, activity or mechanism that releases a greenhouse gas, an aerosol, or aprecursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol into the atmosphere. Source can also refer to e.g. an energy source.

Spatial and temporal scalesClimate may vary on a large range of spatial and temporal scales. Spatial scales may range from local (less than100,000 km2), through regional (100,000 to 10 million km2) to continental (10 to 100 million km2). Temporal scalesmay range from seasonal to geological (up to hundreds of millions of years).

SRES scenariosSRES scenarios are emission scenarios developed by Nakicenovic and Swart (2000) and used, among others, as abasis for some of the climate projections used in the Fourth Assessment Report. The following terms are relevant fora better understanding of the structure and use of the set of SRES scenarios:Scenario Family: Scenarios that have a similar demographic, societal, economic and technical-change storyline. Fourscenario families comprise the SRES scenario set: A1, A2, B1 and B2.Illustrative Scenario: A scenario that is illustrative for each of the six scenario groups reflected in the Summary forPolicymakers of Nakicenovic et al. (2000). They include four revised ‘scenario markers’ for the scenario groups A1B,A2, B1, B2, and two additional scenarios for the A1FI and A1T groups. All scenario groups are equally sound.Marker Scenario: A scenario that was originally posted in draft form on the SRES website to represent a givenscenario family. The choice of markers was based on which of the initial quantifications best reflected the storyline,and the features of specific models. Markers are no more likely than other scenarios, but are considered by the SRES

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writing team as illustrative of a particular storyline. They are included in revised form in Nakicenovic and Swart(2000). These scenarios received the closest scrutiny of the entire writing team and via the SRES open process.Scenarios were also selected to illustrate the other two scenario groups.Storyline: A narrative description of a scenario (or family of scenarios), highlighting the main scenario characteristics,relationships between key driving forces and the dynamics of their evolution.

Structural changeChanges, for example, in the relative share of Gross Domestic Product produced by the industrial, agricultural, orservices sectors of an economy; or more generally, systems transformations whereby some components are eitherreplaced or potentially substituted by other ones.

StabilisationKeeping constant the atmospheric concentrations of one or more greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide) or of aCO2-equivalent basket of greenhouse gases. Stabilisation analyses or scenarios address the stabilisation of theconcentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Sulphurhexafluoride (SF6)One of the six greenhouse gases to be curbed under the Kyoto Protocol. It is largely used in heavy industry toinsulate high-voltage equipment and to assist in the manufacturing of cable-cooling systems and semi-conductors.

Surface temperatureSee Global surface temperature.

Sustainable Development (SD)The concept of sustainable development was introduced in the World Conservation Strategy (IUCN 1980) and had itsroots in the concept of a sustainable society and in the management of renewable resources. Adopted by the WCED

Draft V0 for E‐Consultationin 1987 and by the Rio Conference in 1992 as a process of change in which the exploitation of resources, thedirection of investments, the orientation of technological development, and institutional change are all in harmony andenhance both current and future potential to meet human needs and aspirations. SD integrates the political, social,economic and environmental dimensions.

Sustainable food securityA situation that exists when the processes that lead to food security today do not reduce food security in the future.See also Rome Principles for Sustainable Global Food Security

Sustainable intensificationSustainable intensification occurs when agricultural productivity increases in ways that can be continued indefinitelyinto the future when all consequences of different practices are taken into account, including food production’s directand indirect roles in greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification is a description of a food productionoutcome and does not imply any particular means of attaining the goal.

T.

TaxA carbon tax is a levy on the carbon content of fossil fuels. Because virtually all of the carbon in fossil fuels isultimately emitted as carbon dioxide, a carbon tax is equivalent to an emission tax on each unit of CO2equivalentemissions. An energy tax a levy on the energy content of fuels reduces demand for energy and so reduces carbondioxide emissions from fossil fuel use. An eco-tax is designed to influence human behaviour (specifically economicbehaviour) to follow an ecologically benign path. An international carbon/emission/energy tax is a tax imposed onspecified sources in participating countries by an international agreement. A harmonised tax commits participatingcountries to impose a tax at a common rate on the same sources. A tax credit is a reduction of tax in order tostimulate purchasing of or investment in a certain product, like GHG emission reducing technologies. A carboncharge is the same as a carbon tax.

Technological changeMostly considered as technological improvement, i.e. more or better goods and services can be provided from agiven amount of resources (production factors). Economic models distinguish autonomous (exogenous), endogenous

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and induced technological change. Autonomous (exogenous) technological change is imposed from outside themodel, usually in the form of a time trend affecting energy demand or world output growth. Endogenous technologicalchange is the outcome of economic activity within the model, i.e. the choice of technologies is included within themodel and affects energy demand and/or economic growth. Induced technological change implies endogenoustechnological change but adds further changes induced by policies and measures, such as carbon taxes triggeringR&D efforts.

Technology transferThe exchange of knowledge, hardware and associated software, money and goods among stakeholders that leads tothe spreading of technology for adaptation or mitigation. The term encompasses both diffusion of technologies andtechnological cooperation across and within countries.

Thermal expansionIn connection with sea-level rise, this refers to the increase in volume (and decrease in density) that results fromwarming water. A warming of the ocean leads to an expansion of the ocean volume and hence an increase in sealevel. See Sea level change.

Thermal infrared radiationRadiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere and the clouds. It is also known as terrestrial or longwaveradiation, and is to be distinguished from the near-infrared radiation that is part of the solar spectrum. Infraredradiation, in general, has a distinctive range of wavelengths (spectrum) longer than the wavelength of the red colourin the visible part of the spectrum. The spectrum of thermal infrared radiation is practically distinct from that of


shortwave or solar radiation because of the difference in temperature between the Sun and the Earth-atmospheresystem.

Top-down modelsTop-down model apply macroeconomic theory, econometric and optimization techniques to aggregate economicvariables. Using historical data on consumption, prices, incomes, and factor costs, top-down models assess finaldemand for goods and services, and supply from main sectors, like the energy sector, transportation, agriculture, andindustry. Some top-down models incorporate technology data, narrowing the gap to bottom-up models.

Total Solar Irradiance (TSI)The amount of solar radiation received outside the Earth’s atmosphere on a surface normal to the incident radiation,and at the Earth’s mean distance from the sun. Reliable measurements of solar radiation can only be made fromspace and the precise record extends back only to 1978. The generally accepted value is 1,368 Watts per squaremeter (W m-2) with an accuracy of about 0.2%. Variations of a few tenths of a percent are common, usuallyassociated with the passage of sunspots across the solar disk. The solar cycle variation of TSI is on the order of0.1%. Source: AMS, 2000.

Tradable permitA tradable permit is an economic policy instrument under which rights to discharge pollution – in this case an amountof greenhouse gas emissions – can be exchanged through either a free or a controlled permit-market. An emissionpermit is a non-transferable or tradable entitlement allocated by a government to a legal entity (company or otheremitter) to emit a specified amount of a substance.

U.

UncertaintyAn expression of the degree to which a value (e.g., the future state of the climate system) is unknown. Uncertaintycan result from lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have manytypes of sources, from quantifiable errors in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertainprojections of human behaviour. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures, for example, arange of values calculated by various models, or by qualitative statements, for example, reflecting the judgement of ateam of experts (see Moss and Schneider, 2000; Manning et al., 2004). See also Likelihood; Confidence.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)The Convention was adopted on 9 May 1992 in New York and signed at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro bymore than 150 countries and the European Community. Its ultimate objective is the “stabilisation of greenhouse gasconcentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climatesystem”. It contains commitments for all Parties. Under the Convention, Parties included in Annex I (all OECD

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member countries in the year 1990 and countries with economies in transition) aim to return greenhouse gasemissions not controlled by the Montreal Protocol to 1990 levels by the year 2000. The Convention entered in force inMarch 1994. See Kyoto Protocol.

UrbanisationThe conversion of land from a natural state or managed natural state (such as agriculture) to cities; a process drivenby net rural-to-urban migration through which an increasing percentage of the population in any nation or regioncome to live in settlements that are defined as urban centres.

V.

Voluntary actionInformal programmes, self-commitments and declarations, where the parties (individual companies or groups ofcompanies) entering into the action set their own targets and often do their own monitoring and reporting.


Voluntary agreementAn agreement between a government authority and one or more private parties to achieve environmental objectivesor to improve environmental performance beyond compliance to regulated obligations. Not all voluntary agreementsare truly voluntary; some include rewards and/or penalties associated with joining or achieving commitments.

VulnerabilityVulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climatechange, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate ofclimate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

Vulnerability, human, to climate changeVulnerability is the degree to which an individual is or groups of individuals are susceptible to, and unable to copewith, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

W.Water stressA country is water stressed if the available freshwater supply relative to water withdrawals acts as an importantconstraint on development. In global-scale assessments, basins with water stress are often defined as having a percapita water availability below 1,000 m3/yr (based on long-term average runoff). Withdrawals exceeding 20% ofrenewable water supply have also been used as an indicator of water stress. A crop is water stressed if soil availablewater, and thus actual evapotranspiration, is less than potential evapotranspiration demands.

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i - Home | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United ... · Web view almost 69 percent of the world’s population will be living in urban areas by 2050 and the rural population