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Livestock Productionand the Perfect Storm

Surprises in Store?

John Gay, DVM PhD DACVPMAssociate Professor of Epidemiology

AAHP Field Disease Investigation UnitWashington State University

Ag Animal Morning Seminar

I predict that a “perfect storm” approaching livestock production will drive big changes

And I may well be sawing my limb off

Warning:My "Crystal" Ball is a 

Brunswick

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The big factors driving change that will surprise livestock agriculture are:• Declining social perception of livestock agriculture

• Economic globalization raising social economic status

• Emerging infectious agents – Virus, Bacteria, Parasites 

• Genetic diversity threats ‐ Invasive, Extinction 

• Increasing global climate variability and change 

• Increasing regional fresh water scarcity 

• Increasing petroleum scarcity and declining EROEI

• Regional human population expansion

• Regional soil depletion and salinization 

These interrelate in complex waysSolutions to one problem often increase another3

Tipping Point

Flexible Responsive Lower costs

Rigid Bureaucratic Higher costs

Social License

Aligned:

•Values 

• Expectations

• Ethics

Self regulation

Social Control

• Gov. Regulation 

• Legislation 

• Litigation 

• AuditingSingle major event or  

impacts of cumulative events

Charlie Arnot ‐ The social license vs. control balance“Science tells us if we can do something

Society tells us if we should do it”

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Center for Food Integrity Why Science Isn’t Enough ‐What consumers need to trust animal agriculture  (2012)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2IqPmO5aHk2014 Consumer Trust Research: Cracking the Code on Food Issues

http://www.fccouncil.com/files/CFI2014%20Research%20Book.pdf

Cigarette!

Emotional perceptiontrumpsrational science

every time

Which are the jackhammers and which are the cigarettes?

Public (consumer) understanding is neither straightforward nor necessarily rational!

http://www.snopes.com/photos/signs/pregnant.asp5

Who is the public to trust on emerging social issues involving livestock agriculture?

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Vaclav Smilhttp://www.philiplymbery.com/farmageddon-facts/http://www.vaclavsmil.com/

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Exploiting our biases and our outrage addiction is the most profitable media industry

JM Berry & S Sobieraj, 2014

For 10 weeks in 2009 coded:

• 10 top‐rated cable news shows

• 10 top‐rated talk radio shows

• 20 widely read political blogs

Found:

• 100% of cable news and 90% of talk rad shows contained outrage

• 80% of blog entries were categorized as outrage

• Outrage heard every other minute on Fox and MSNBC

http://ase.tufts.edu/polsci/prospective/OutrageIndustry.pdf

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“Framing” is repeatedly using the most positive or negative label to “spin” a concept

Conservative – Frank LuntzLiberal – George Lakoff

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Evaluate yourself for IOED – the “Illusion of Explanatory Depth”

• Spend 10 minutes explaining the key concepts & relationships to someone and note the gaps

• Take 30 minutes to map out what you know and what you don’t on a sheet of paper

• Ask “5 Whys” for root cause

Don’t fall victim to the Dunning‐Kruger Effect

How do you know you have an informed opinion?

9http://www.pinterest.com/pin/366550857142554626/

“I never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I don’t know the other side’s argument better than they do.” —Charlie Munger (Buffett partner)

Gaining perspective is most important 

TerrestrialBiosphere

This biomantleproduces our food!

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Practical terrestrial biosphere (zone of life) thickness = 0.0005 of earth’s radius

View from Space Shuttle at altitude of 250 miles

Apple skinTrinket gold film

Humans perceive things best in our scales of size, distance, mass, and time

• Human scale 

– http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_scale

• We use technology to extend our perception to the telescopic, microscopic, in distance, and in time– Powers of Ten ‐ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fKBhvDjuy0 

• Our perception is easily deceived, particularly in un‐natural scales

– Illusion ‐ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusion

• Comprehension is difficult for us in un‐natural scales

– Geologic time scale ‐http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_time_scale

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Look up; airliners fly at the upper biosphere boundary

Upper biosphere boundary~ 4 – 10 miles uphorizontally the length of Pullman‐Moscow highway!

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Jetstream altitude is 23,000 to 52,000 feet

Jetstream from Space Shuttle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xF27e59QU44

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Do Livestock contribute to global warming?

http://m.beefmagazine.com/cow-calf/15-best-winter-ranch-photos

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Are you out of your mind? DamIfIKnow

(but Probably)

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Are humans contributing to global warming?

Life dramatically affected earth history and geology

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Stage 1 (3.8–2.4 Ga)

No atmospheric O2

Great Oxygenation

Event

~2,500 new minerals (55%) appeared

Biogeochemistry

Billion years

Cyanobacteria began

photosynthesis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Oxygenation_Event

Present

We are dealing with very complex systems interacting across wide scales including time 

Sulfur CyclesWE Schlesinger, ES Bernhardt,  2013

16 http://faculty.yc.edu/ycfaculty/ags105/week12/biogeochemical_cycles_information/

The surface temperature key is the atmospheric energy balance, Wm‐2 in = out

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http://climateprediction.net/content/basic-climate-science

Atmospheric CO2 level is the primary focus of concern and for mitigation

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Keeling Curve

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeling_Curve

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Atmospheric components block outbound long wave radiation

19 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas

Sunlight Energy

In

Infrared Energy

Out

Livestock associated

The CO2 change contribution is physically small

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1750 – 2005 change in radiation forcing

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing

Equivalent to a small flashlight bulb per square 

meter!

T

Agriculture developed during a period of unusual climate stability

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoclimatology21

Historical Earth Temperature

Agriculture began in ~7 places around

world 7-10 K yrs ago

Two components:Mean & Variation

What might the return of “normal” instability do?

Present

Eastern Coal

Western Coal

World map adjusted for population

Nature 439, 800 (16 February 2006) http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/cartograms/

http://www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk/worldmapper/index.html

19%1.4B #1

Feb 2015 - 7,223,648,678

17%1.3B #2

4%0.3B #3

4%0.2B #4

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population

http://www.census.gov/popclock/

3%0.2B #5

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47%

During your career, population will grow ~50%

World food production must increase by ~50%!

Where will that additional food come from?

U.S Census Bureau International Data Basehttp://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/

FAO Food Outlookhttp://www.fao.org/giews/english/fo/index.htm

1o Human Foodstuffs:1. Wheat                (  80%)2. Rice                     (100%)3. Coarse Grains    (  22%)

2015 ?

10 Billion?

7 Billion

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Plateau due to demographic

transition?

Livestock are concentrated in regions

http://www.fao.org/AG/againfo/resources/en/glw/Modelled_maps/cattle_modelled‐2005.jpg24

Global Cattle Density: Head / km2

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Domestic mammals far outweigh wild mammals

25 http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1338:_Land_Mammals

Cattle450MT

Horses 40MT

Sheep

Goats

Pigs100MT

Humans280MT

Data from Vaclav Smil’s The Earth’s Biosphere plus other sources

= 1,000,000 tons

http://xkcd.com/1338/

Elephants 0.8

All Wild Land

Vertebrates30MT

Whales80MT

Highest poultry densities are in the Pacific Rim

40% of global poultry production

Avian influenza H5N1 remains endemic here

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Human population growth rates are highest in LDC’s

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the‐world‐factbook/rankorder/2002rank.html

Rule of 72: Population doubles in ~72 / (% rate)Zimbabwe ~ 16 years,  3% ~ 24 years

Zimbabwe – 4.4%

1143

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Livestock producer education is poor in LDC’s

Education Level Number Percentage

• 90% have a primary school education or less

1. Can LDC producers understand the "how" and "why" of disease control or climate change mitigation sufficiently to optimize food production?

Indonesia Livestock Producers

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2. Can LDC government infrastructure compensate?

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Global arable (cultivatable) land is declining 

http://www.earth‐policy.org/books/out/out_table_of_contents

Arable land:

• 1.5 billion hectares

• Takes 0.25 hectares to feed each person 

• Maximum in early 1980’s, now declining

– erosion

– salinization

– desertification

– diversion

Google “Outgrowing the Earth” to read the on-line version

http://www.sare.org/Learning-Center/Books/Building-Soils-for-Better-Crops-3rd-Edition

Optimizing soil health is crucial to food production

http://soils.usda.gov/sqi/concepts/soil_biology/biology.html

Increasing and maintaining soil organic matter is key30

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We are currently using arable soil 20 to 100 times faster than natural processes produce it

Crop agriculture is not sustainable without re‐integrating livestock, particularly ruminants

David Montgomery

• Professor of Geomorphology, U Washington http://gis.ess.washington.edu/grg/

• 2008 MacArthur Fellow, $500,000 “genius” award

• Viewing soil as a biological rather than as a chemical system

The future of livestock agriculture is probably excellent but where and how we do it will change

Global water situation is tight in some areas

> 75% of flows allocated to agriculture, industry, domestic use

Unmet water needs due to lack of infrastructure (dams, piping)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/21_08_06_world_water_week.pdf32

Some high density populations have to “import water” as food

http://www.wri.org/resources/maps/water-stress-most-populous-river-basins33

> 80%

40 - 80%

20 - 40%

Ogallala‐High Plains Aquifer useful life is declining

http://www.kgs.ku.edu/HighPlains/maps/ofr2005_8_eul_400y_2000_2005.jpg

< 20 yrs

Fillingnow

Average Rainfall

33 inches

12 inches

Higher intensity wx events> More runoff, less recharge

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Climate change consequences are already documented in the Pacific Northwest

• More winter precipitation falling as rain instead of snow

• Increased winter streamflows

• Increased winter flood risks in transient (rain/snow mix) basins

• Reduced snow water storage, particularly in mid‐elevations 

• Earlier snow melt and peak runoff (10 to 30 days)

• Decreased late spring and summer streamflows

The Result: The paradox of more winter flooding and more summer drought

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http://cses.washington.edu/cig/pnwc/pnwwater.shtml

Projected climate change yield impact varies

http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/uploads/climate_and_crop_yields_2.jpg

20% precipitation increase

20% precipitation decrease

no precipitation change

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US energy sources to uses

http://phys.org/news/2013-07-americans-renewable-energy-sources.html

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Vehicles use 71% of Crude Oil

Declining EROEI is biggest problem

http://www.eroei.com/articles/2005-articles/aspo-presentation/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_returned_on_energy_invested

EROI: definition, history and future implicationsCAS Hall and CJ Cleveland, 2005 ASPO-US Conference

US Energy Consumption (Quads)

1930

US Peak Oil

w/ CO2

scrubbing

“Low Hanging Fruit” at top

5:1

Ethanol

1:1

TarSands

Hydro

Wind

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ER

OE

I

What happens if and when they catch up due to rising SES?

Car ownership growth:• India ~14% per year

•2020 ~150M cars ( 41 per 1,000 now)• China ~ 8% per year

•2020 ~ 140M cars (101 per 1,000 now)• US ~ 258M cars now (809 per 1,000 now)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:PU200611_Fig1.png

World Oil Production2015

Peak Oil?Nano, India’s $2500 car

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capitahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil39

From my limb I predict that climate change will have the biggest impact on livestock  through disease

Vector‐borne diseases will provide the nastiest surprises for livestock production

Global climate change

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Climate change will likely expand many vector‐borne disease ranges

Small climate changes can:

• Markedly shift ranges of tick species

– Ticks are vectors of nasty bovine disease agents

• Markedly alter mosquito populations and their range

• Reduce keystone species, destabilizing vulnerable ecosystems

– Allows proliferation of invasive species

However, due to the many factors involved vector‐borne disease ecology is very complex, making prediction difficult and uncertain!

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The dynamics of complex systems are difficult to comprehend without good models

Big factors driving change:

• Human Population Expansion

• Fresh Water Scarcity

• Soil Depletion 

• Fossil Fuel Scarcity

• Globalization

• Emerging Infectious Agents 

• Global Climate Change

• Genetic Diversity Decrease

• Social Perception

Tough positive and negative feedback loops with time lags link all factors and problem solutions

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Understanding these changes requires systems thinking rather than linear thinking

Careful critical systems thinking that:

• Is based on empirical scientific evidence

• Allows for the occurrence of unintended consequences

• Avoids the “silo effect”

• Avoids “framing”

• Detects “illusions of explanatory depth” (IOED)

• Includes all the relevant systems

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http://www.agroecology.org/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systems_thinking

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future"

Who said this?

Niels Bohr, Danish physicist

not

Lawrence Peter “Yogi” Berra

Always check your sources!

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Earthrise

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Apollo 8 - December 24, 1968http://www.c-span.org/video/?322340-6/private-space-travel