IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency

Nuclear Electricity in the CEE Region:

Current State and

Development ProspectsR I Facer, NENP-NPTDS, IAEA

IAEA

NUMBER OF COUNTRIES WITH NPPand others who have considered NPP

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Blue, countries with NPPs,

Pink, countries that considered NPPs

IAEA

Reasons why not proceeded in the past

• Finance• Nuclear economics unattractive• Infrastructure costs high• Costs of new facilities high• Liability for waste uncertain

• Manpower unavailable• Lack of skills• Lack of trained manpower

• Public distrust• Private industry decisions• Alternatives available

IAEA

Changing conditions

• Economics of alternative energy sources• Rising price of fossil fuels

• Nuclear continuing in many countries• Identified success for countries that have

nuclear power

• Security of supply• Independence from single supplier

• Growing environmental concerns over fossil fuels

IAEA

Global Nuclear Capacity

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

GW

(e)

NA WE Russia & EE Japan & ROK Developing

North America

Western Europe

FSU / EE

Japan / ROK

Developing countries

IAEA

World Primary Energy Demand

Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix, while oil remains the leading fuel

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

Oil

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear power

Other renewables

Hydropower

IAEA

Into Uncharted Territory:The Earth out of Balance

Vostok RecordIPCC Scenario

Current(2003)

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

400 300 200 100 0 Age (thousands of years before present)

COCO22 trapped in Ice Cores trapped in Ice Cores (ppm)(ppm)

IPCC Projection

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Year

pp

mv/y

r

IAEA

Climate Change: It Is Already Occurring

An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming World.

There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

IAEA

Technologies Exist to Begin to Take Action

R Socolow, Science 2004

IAEA

Agency Activities

• Regional Europe TC Projects• Operational Support

• Safety/regulatory support

• National Projects• Energy Planning, capacity building

• License renewal/Life extension

• Infrastructure support

• Specific national requests

IAEA

Strengthening capabilities for NPP performance and service lifeStrengthening capabilities for NPP performance and service life

• Experience over the past four years

World Regional Europe

Increase in installed capacity

2.07% 2.8%

Increase output 7.4% 16.9%

Additional TWH/year

42.18

Additional Annual Revenue

$25M per TWH

IAEA

World Energy today

Energy consumption

(GJ/cap)

Electricity Consumption

(MWh/cap)

North America 347 13.8

Western Europe 150 6.3

Eastern Europe 130 4.2

Middle East and South Asia

28 0.7

Africa 26 0.6

Far East 56 2.2

World Average 71 2.6

IAEA

Prognosis for the future

• World demand increases

• Asia increases much faster than world average

• Fossil fuel use has massive increase

• Environmental stress

IAEA

CEE

Number of NPP units

% of all electricity from nuclear

Bulgaria 4 42

Czech R 8 31

Finland 4 27

Hungary 4 34

Lithuania 1 72

Romania 1 10

Slovakia 6 55

Slovenia 1 39

Ukraine 15 51

IAEA

Nuclear Support

In the Countries where nuclear power contributes significantly to the national electricity supply there is broad political consensus that nuclear power should continue

IAEA

CEE Nuclear plans (existing nuclear countries)

Planned new units

Continued operation and license renewal

Bulgaria Yes yes

Czech R Yes

Finland Yes Yes

Hungary Yes

Lithuania Possible No

Romania Yes Completion of delayed plant

Yes

Slovakia Yes

Slovenia Yes

Ukraine Yes Yes

IAEA

Other Countries plans

• Several Countries have expressed interest recently, particularly since Paris Conference “Nuclear Power for the 21st Century” at which 34 Ministers presented speeches discussing their countries interest in possible nuclear power plants in the future.

• At present there are 24 nuclear plants under construction in 9 countries

IAEA

European Green Paper

• Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply (2000)

• Three Main Points• Increasing Dependence upon external energy

sources (70% by 2030)

• Little scope to influence energy supply conditions

• Not in a position to respond to challenge of Climate Change

IAEA

European Context

• Nuclear can reduce external dependence upon fossil energy

• Nuclear can provide energy without Greenhouse Gas emissions

• Nuclear can provide diversity of national energy supply and improved national energy supply security

IAEA

Nuclear Availability

• Technology available now for large nuclear plant, in an integrated grid system• Several plants being built worldwide that could be used

in Europe

• Several designs approaching implementation for small or medium sized reactors that could be used on a more localised basis.

• European Infrastructure exists that could support the introduction of a nuclear plant for any country in Europe

IAEA

Nuclear fuel and waste

• Recent speech by US Secretary of State for Energy• US sees fuel cycle states offering ‘cradle to

grave’ fuel cycle services, leasing fuel and then taking it back for reprocessing and disposition.

• This service is already available from Russia, and hence should develop into the normal means of fuel supply and removal service

IAEA

Waste storage

• Generally this is a technically solved problem, and the future position of return of fuel to the supplier country should reduce the number of storage locations that are needed.

IAEA

Nuclear and Renewables

• Nuclear power should not be seen as competing with renewable energy systems

• Both renewable systems and high quality nuclear power are needed to ensure a secure energy supply system

IAEA

The next steps

• Nuclear needs to be recognised as a significant potential energy source for Europe

• For countries that do not already operate nuclear power plants the IAEA can provide support to develop and strengthen the Infrastructure in these countries

• Action is needed quickly to avoid a significant problem for Europe in terms of energy supply security

IAEA

The end, thank you