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Ian Pearson
Singularitarian utopia
or a new dark age?
www.futurizon.com
The singularity
• Some illustrations of the enormous
potential first, then some examples of
how adding a high level of ambient
stupidity might mean we might make a
mess of it
The singularity (critical level positive feedback in technology development)
2020 2040
Normal tech progress
Invention curve can
go almost vertical Tech level
Exponent increases rapidly
as tech improves,
especially as AI kicks in
2000
Implementation
rate is limited
Main driver is NBIC Convergence
(nano-bio-info-cogno)
Nanotech gives
us tiny devices
Tiny sensors help
neuroscience figure
out how the mind
works Insights from
neuroscience feed into
machine intelligence
Improving machine
intelligence
accelerates R&D in
every sphere
Biotech and IT advances
make body and machine
connectable
Elemental Resources
Better supply as we discover more and
reach into space
Materials tech development means we
will need less raw material and have a
range of potential substitutes
Better recycling means elements mainly
just move around
Global land management
Food Energy
Physical
infrastructure
Housing Nature
With increasing global
wealth, we need to
make more effort to
use limited land on the
basis of global needs.
Use farmland to grow
food. Use deserts to
collect energy.
Could feed up to 20Bn
people or return some
land to nature.
Doom-mongers are wrong, again!
Increasing population increases supply of intelligence and
solutions faster than demand
Energy shortage is a short to mid term problem
We can produce more of everything than people need
Clean water will be plentiful
We will also need less and waste less.
Long term pollution will decline
Real problems are short term, and some of those come
from policies created by doom-mongers, such as biofuels
and energy poverty
A better world
via cheap energy
Tissue-cultured meat
Water production All-electric
transport
Landfill
mining
Shale gas
Thorium
Fusion
Solar farms
….
Potential for space too
Tourism Ark 1
Galileo Space elevator
Asteroid mining
30km high graphene structures
43o
Tension member
plan
member structure
Graphene sheet
Graphene
ribbon wrap
C nanotube fill
Tubular wall structure
vacuum
Vacuum-filled columns made of
hierarchical mesh/tape/cross
members. 30km Earth version
can be made lighter than air for
most of the height, and could be
erected like growing grass, by
adding to members at ground
rather than at top, enabling
easy erection and super-tall
structures. Graphene foam
could be lighter than helium and
used as buoyancy aid.
Moon version could be over
150km high. seal
platform
IT progress so far
But it isn’t
over yet!!!
Electronic jewellery
Bring your own kit 2.0
Identification,
security
Social status
Digital image
augmentation
Communication,
data distribution
Sensing
Medical
monitoring,
alarms
Networking
Decoration
Tribal signalling
Digital bubble
Mobile
website
Miniaturisation will bring everyday IT down to jewellery size. Combinations
of devices can monitor and relay a wide variety of data.
Any
form
Display evolution
Large wall displays, street ads, coffee table displays, digital windows, recipe tablets etc
The more personal displays become, the more opportunity they present
Active contact lens (Pearson 1991)
laser
focusing
micromirror
retina
lasers
Gaze direction sensor
Micromirror Inductive
power
supply
Processing
Comms
& ctrl
Laser Laser
Laser
Gaze
direction
sensor
Diamond
substrate Resolution limited by the eye
Allows natural distance perception
Tiny environmental footprint
Casual displays
Program an image on a cheap
display by touch. Could have lots
of reusable card displays all over
your house or office.
Finger can transmit electrical
power and 2Mb/s data, 1 second
contact for a decent photo, with a
networked wristband or hand held
device as the data and power
source.
Virtualisation as happiness amplifier
People, buildings and objects can emit an interactive digital ‘aura’
Hi-res, 3D information overlays for email, leisure, socialisation, navigation etc
Dual appearance – Can blend games into real
world
– You can choose how you appear
– Everyone can see the world differently
– Fight off aliens while your partner chooses an outfit.
Gel computing
Large number of capsules suspended in gel using
free-space comms to link up to form ad-hoc circuitry
Sensor
Power
Processing
comms
LED Rx
Storage
Sensor
Sensing
Single core
Dual core
Quad core
Massively multiple
core-multiple chip
D
i
g
i
t
a
l
Digital &
Analog
Self-organisation used with
AI-controlled evolution to
build circuit/function
libraries and eventually
strong AI 48 core
OB1 - optical brain mk1
A conscious computer
1 trillion neurons in 100ml gel
1 billion times more powerful than brain, with up to
2 million emotions & unlimited senses
Could be fully sentient
Could be benign or malicious
Could be linked to other devices via the net
Optical ‘hormone’
Gel
Sensory stimulus
sensory
encoding
playback
Sensory
echo Internal sensing
neural vortex
generation
Neural
response
Neural interference
processing vortex
Smart cells could exist in both real world and cyberspace
Molecular circuitry
assembled by cell 1 micron
Bacteria linked together via infrared, to make
sophisticated self organising circuits
Custom
DNA
20
Permanent layer Mid-term layer Transfer layer
Detachable layer Wearable layer
Active skin – the body as IT platform
Skin Epidermis
Dermis
Skin-based electronics can link blood
chemistry and nerve signals to
external computers and systems
Even thought
recognition is
starting to
appear now
Emotiv Epoc headset
for computer games
IQ and sensory enhancement
and electronic immortality
Billions of tiny sensors linked to every
synapse, signalling activity to external
replica and able to recreate signals
generated by external replica
Billions of smart bacteria with synthetic
neurons replicating behaviour of every
individual neuron but able to run at much
higher speeds and with connectivity to
net and other brains.
Sensory enhancement
Sensory
translation
unit
Input Output
External sensors
Wearable sensors
Detachable sensors
Implanted sensors
Alarms
Telemetry
Monitors
Logs
Control
systems
Messaging
Audio
Video
Heat or vibration
Pain or pleasure
Magnetic field
Radiation (EM or nuclear)
Magnetic field
Temperature
Location
Proximity
Sound
Chemical or
microbiological presence
Data
Pollutants
New senses
How close can you get?
2010: Can touch
2020 can link dreams
2025: Can link nervous systems
2040: Can link brains
2050:Can share enhanced
consciousness in machine
2060: can share bodies too
2075: can merge completely
Dream linking
Dream state is detected in each
person and then appropriate
imagery and sound created in
both headsets by computer.
Ongoing detection of thoughts
and emotions during dream
influences choice of material.
The Borg, 2075-2200
Medium
A global environment linking together
all the minds of people and
sentient machines in a global
consciousness
Shared consciousness & awareness
Shared personalities
Link nervous systems together
Body sharing
Fuzzy boundaries between people
Post-organic life Under 40s might live forever
As brain add-ons and IQ, memory
and sensory upgrades account for
an ever-increasing proportion of your
mind’s capability and content, death
of the organic body becomes just an
inconvenience. You may simply buy
an android, upload and carry on.
By then you may have spawned
numerous replicas. Which are you?
OK, so: What will your next body look like? How
many will you have? Will you be willing to share?
Repliee, Osaka University,
lots of descendants now
Human-machine Convergence
Homo
habilis
homo erectus
homo sapiens
neanderthalensis
- 1.5M years - 125,000 years
homo sapiens
- 750,000 years - 40,000 years
Today
homo
optimus
50 years
100 years
homo
cyberneticus
homo sapiens ludditus
homo hybridus
robotus
primus
150 years
robotus
multitudinus
homo
machinus
Sims sapiens
Bacteria sapiens
Gaia
sapiens
homo
zombius?
NBIC enabled
organisms,
including
transhumans
Natural world,
including
Mk 1 humans
Cyberspace life,
including conscious
machines
Blurred
boundary
Make new organisms &
Ecosystems
Alternative biochemistry
Organic resources
Gaia 2.0
We may have to
help fix, rebuild or
even recreate
damaged organic
resources such as
fisheries and
rainforests
Panda 2.0
Enhance mating desire. Add
fertility sensors, GPS
location and dating sites so
that Pandas can find
suitable mates at the right
times. Adjust discrimination
levels so that potential
mates are less fussy.
Making other organisms smart
Smart mice, chimps,
dogs, cats, worms?
Nanotechnology
Biotechnology
Artificial
Intelligence
Hybrid animal brains
that contain synthetic
processing and
memory but exist
and compete in both
natural world and
cyberspace
Smart bacteria could exist in both real world and cyberspace
Molecular circuitry
assembled by cell 1 micron
Bacteria linked together via infrared, to make
sophisticated self organising circuits
Custom
DNA
E-bay-bies?
2010 2030 2050
DNA mix
digital
conception
Computer
Simulation
E-birth
Optional genetic
Assembly
Physical birth
Machine-designed
humans
2070
sentience
0
Human
equivalence
How long will it be before it will be considered irresponsible not to
genetically enhance your kids?
At what stage of electronic emulation or genetic assembly does a child
become legally human?
Parents can be of any
gender
AI evolution
AIs will have their own cultures and civilisation that will cross fertilise with ours
Sims will get much smarter!
Some AIs will migrate from cyberspace into the real world
Some people might move into cyberspace – retirement or suicide?
Cyberspace fauna and flora The Sims, EA Games
But is all of this progress?
Starting to get scary isn’t it?
Who gets to decide how far we go?
Do you trust them?
Should we allow sentient beings in computer
games to be controlled by children?
How long will it be before ‘Robot Wars’
transforms into an android version of the
Roman Coliseum with synthetic blood?
Increasing danger from technology Probability of
extinction-
level event per
year
1M BC 1950 today 2050
1%
0.5%
ETA for tech-enabled extinction is
2085
Via Pandemics, NBIC accidents or
weapons, AI, climatic instability, or
100s of variants
Perhaps we don’t see aliens because they all wipe themselves out within 300 years of discovering radio!
Terminator scenario?
If we create smarter-than-man machines, we risk extinction.
Even if they are not malign, we may end up in the same
bargaining position as ants on a building site.
If we can enhance or link human brain to the same level of
intelligence, then such a capability gap will not occur.
We need a good brain-machine link before we can safely make
smarter-than-man machines
V
2025: Smart yogurt: Self-organising
smart bacteria, WMD x 2
Can use chemical gradients to self-organise components
into very complex structures
Smart bacteria could use cloud computing to re-design
their offspring, thereby adapting to any environment,
destroying all other life and terraforming Earth
Smart bacteria could control minds of people infected,
enslaving them and making them into zombies
Espionage 35nm tech means 200M transistors/mm2.
Small specks of smart dust can be concealed anywhere
e.g. sand or dirt, passed on by handshake, or dust settling from the air, in food, seeds, gravel or in clothes, stick to shoes. Air conditioning is a new security risk
Even coins or banknotes could be used to hide devices to monitor, record and transmit activity
Human vision limit: 0.1mm
Apple 2 computer needs 0.015mm
0.25MB memory chips: 0.05mm Ant: 10mm
Parallel web: Sponge nets
Direct inter-device networking will become an important alternative internet platform. May be popular 1984 defense.
Wireless LAN link
to web and
between clusters
Wireless links
Laptops
Tablets
Smart phones
Displays
Digital jewellery
Beacons
Street furniture
Custom devices
Smart clothing
Active skin
Will
tribalism
increase?
Geographic
World Cyberspace
Local
govt
Community
Networks
Global
government
Network
Communities
Geographic
tribalism
Values
tribalism
Social world
Tribalism is built in
to human nature
and fits the web
perfectly. Political
power is migrating
onto the web.
Government is
trying to block
anonymity to slow
the slide.
City A
City B
City C
Tribe X
Tribe Y
Tribe Z
Real World Cyberspace
Urban tribes
People may belong to many
tribes, according to their
professional roles, hobbies,
social groups and political
preferences. Each may
have its own tribal symbols
and uniforms that can be
displayed virtually even
when physical appearance
can’t be altered.
Appearance can be
determined by dynamic
group interaction, location
and other contextual
parameters.
The Stepford Society impossible for law- abiding people to commit an
offence, while criminals do as they please
Speed limits built into car management systems
Anti-tech
backlash
Criminals will bypass all the rules with stolen phones, LCD plates, ID theft…
Criminals will have total freedom, we will have none
Tax enforcement via integrated databases
Identity cards
Face recognition systems
DNA Databases
Road tolling via satellite tracking
Speed cameras everywhere
25% of the world’s CCTV
One stop shop for all government data
Direct control of network capability
Abuse of Millimetre wave cameras
Government knows everywhere you go
Extensive & permanent police records
Monitoring of all comms
Number-plate recognition Smart meters
1984 is here albeit a bit late
Social net
monitoring
Identity cards
Electronic cash ISP logs
CCTV
Smart-phone
disabling
Blogs
Web tracking
Average speed
cameras
Search engines
If you aren’t free to do the wrong thing, you aren’t free at all!
Secrecy for leaders
Random walk of values
Religious texts used to act as a fixed reference for ethical values
Secular society has no fixed reference point so values oscillate quickly.
20 years can yield 180o shift
e.g. euthanasia, sexuality, abortion, animal rights, genetic modification, nuclear energy, family, policing, teaching, authority…
Pressure to conform reinforces relativism at the expense of intellectual rigour
Isms are religion substitutes
environmentalism
warmism political
correctness
animal rights
vegetarianism
anti-capitalism
pacifism fitness
feeling of
inner worth
People have a strong need to feel they are ‘good’. Some of today’s
ideological subscriptions are essentially secular substitutes for religion,
and demand same suspension of free thinking and logical reasoning.
Attitudes
to crime
The Spanish Inquisition spotlight
Religious
freedom
Abortion
rights Animal
rights
Racial
equality
Female
equality
Gay
equality
Carbon
use
Gender
Equality
PC Max
Global
equality ??? ??
Dark Age Pressures
Anti-science
Abdication of
personal
responsibility
Age of magic
Emotionalism Rise of AI
Rejection of
authority
Need to feel good
Rebellion
Care economy
Decline in free-thinking
Moral relativism
IT enablers for the Dark Age
Wikipedia
Digital
bubbles, ego
badges etc
Virtual communities
Chat rooms
Virtual environments
Context engines Blogs Positioning
Memory stick nets
Search engines
Dilution of knowledge
1000 1900 2000 2050
Knowledge
Knowledge
Ignorance
Anti-knowledge
New
dark age
In pursuit of social compliance, we are told to believe things that are known to be false.
With clever enough spin, people accept them and become worse than ignorant
The wiki economy –
beginning of the end
Professional
Wikipedia
Time
Information quality
low
high
Level of enthusiasm of
professional elite to
contribute
Gradually almost every kind of information became available free on the
net. Quality rises for a while but eventually declines because
genuine incentives to contribute reduce, while corrupted incentives increase.
The rise of nonsense
2010 2015 2020 2025
Mainstream beliefs e.g. science, mainstream religions
Nonsense beliefs e.g. new age, alternative medicine,
alternative science, 21stC piety,
political correctness
The age of magic
“Any sufficiently advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic”, Arthur C
Clarke
As technology becomes both invisible and too
hard to understand, it has a real danger of
becoming like magic to many people, with
damaging effects on the relationship between
people and engineers
The age of magic – professional elite is shrinking
Fashion
Celebrity
TV Culture
Sport
Games
Chat VEs….
Professional
knowledge
1% hold all
useful knowledge
99% only well
informed on trivia
Scientists need to guard against
becoming too fond of their power and
abusing it as 21st century high priests
Losses
Surveillance
Control
Directionless
Terrorism
Oppression
On Balance?
Slight improvement?
Wins
Health
Wealth
Fun
Empowerment
Growth
www.futurizon.com
twitter.com/timeguide
Thank you
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