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IASbaba’s Daily Current Affairs – 27thFebruary, 2016February 27, 2016 (http://iasbaba.com/2016/02/iasbabas-daily-current-affairs-27th-february-2016/)

Written by IAS baba (http://iasbaba.com/author/ias/)

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IASbaba’s Daily Current Affairs – 27th February, 2016

ECONOMICS

(http://iasbaba.com/category/iasbabas-daily-current-affairs-feb-2016/) IASbaba’s Daily Current Affairs –

27th February, 2016

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NOTE: This article is compilation of information from 5 different National

Newspapers’

Economic Survey 2015-16: A snapshot

Background:

Painting an optimistic picture of the economy despite the grim prospects for

global growth, this year’s Economic Survey sees India getting on to the 8-10

per cent GDP growth trajectory over the next few years.

To realise this potential Centre needs to address, three critical issues — the

transition from socialism to “marketism”, which the Indian economy

struggles with; expand investment in people (health and education); and

sharpen the focus on agriculture.

India recording GDP growth in excess of 7 per cent for the third straight year

in a row in 2016-17.India grew 7.2 per cent in 2014-15 and 7.6 per cent

(advance estimate) in 2015-16.

There is still the promise of India due to accelerated structural reforms,

competitive federalism (among) States and good economics becoming

good politics all over India

STATE OF THE ECONOMY

FY17 GDP expected to be in the range of 7-7.75%. Current year’s at 7.6%

Stick to 䃌scal consolidation path But need to revisit medium-term 䃌scal

policy framework

Farm prices and trade policies need to account that India is a big market for

the world

Twin balance sheet problem – banking stress and that of the corporate

sector hampering economy

TOPIC: General Studies 3

Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization of

resources, growth, development and employment.

Government Budgeting.


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FISCAL DEFICIT

2016-17 expected to be challenging from 䃌scal point of view; time is right

for a review of medium-term 䃌scal framework

2015-16 䃌scal de䃌cit, seen at 3.9 per cent of GDP, seems achievable

Credibility and optimality argue for adhering to 3.5 per cent of GDP 䃌scal

de䃌cit target

PUBLIC FINANCE

Remove tax incentives for small savings, as mostly the rich bene䃌t from

them

Impose tax on gold since it is hoarded by the rich

Rs 1-lakh-crore subsidy going to the rich from the government

Fast-growth years for GDP have led to larger inequality in India; need for

measures like wider property tax in the context of smart cities

Only four per cent of Indians pay income tax; this has to rise to about 23

per cent

PRICES & MONETARY MANAGEMENT

Bene䃌ts of low global oil prices transient

El Niño effect on agriculture to continue for some more time

Crop-wise yields in India compared to the world are low for rice, wheat andpulses

Need to shift to demand-driven agri-extension services

Food not the only reason for low transmission of rate cuts by RBI

INFLATION

CPI in쁦ation seen around 4.5 to 5% in 2016/17

Low in쁦ation has taken hold, con䃌dence in price stability has improved

Expect RBI to meet 5 percent in쁦ation target by March 2017

Prospect of lower oil prices over medium term likely to dampen in쁦ationary

expectations

Low in쁦ation has taken hold, con䃌dence in price stability has improved

Slack in the private sector labor market and capacity underutilization in

industry mean that higher public sector wages would not be transmitted

across the rest of the economy

Continuing moderation in oil prices, a return to normal monsoons, and


5/18



persistent below-potential output also led to the Survey’s conclusion that

consumer price in쁦ation would be between 4.5 and 䃌ve per cent in 2016-17,

well within the RBI’s target.

CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

2016/17 current account de䃌cit seen around 1-1.5% of GDP

CURRENCY

Rupee’s value must be fair, avoiding strengthening; fair value can be

achieved through monetary relaxation

India needs to prepare itself for a major currency readjustment in Asia in

wake of a similar adjustment in China

Gradual depreciation in rupee can be allowed if capital in쁦ows are weak

TAXES

Proposes widening tax net from 5.5% of earning individuals to more than

20%

Tax revenue expected to be higher than budgeted levels in FY15/16

Easiest way to widen the tax base would be not to raise exemption

thresholds

Favors review and phasing out of tax exemptions

BANKING & CORPORATE SECTOR

Estimated capital requirement for banks likely around Rs 1.8 trillion by

2018/19

Corporate, bank balance sheets remain stretched, affecting prospects for

reviving private investments

Underlying stressed assets in corporate sector must be sold or rehabilitated

Govt could sell off certain non 䃌nancial companies to infuse capital in state-

run banksGovt proposes to make available 700 bln rupees via budgetary allocations

during current, succeeding years in banks

Banks’ gross non-performing advances (GNPA) as a proportion of gross

advances increased to 5.1 per cent between March and September 2015,

from 4.6 per cent.

Restructured standard advances as a proportion of gross advances declined

to 6.2 per cent from 6.4 per cent in the period, while the stressed advances to


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total gross advances ratio increased to 11.3 from 11.1.

PSBs had the highest level of stressed assets (gross plus restructured) at 14

per cent of the total, followed by private sector banks (PVBs) at 4.6 per cent

and foreign banks (FBs) at 3.4 per cent at end-September 2015.

Net non-performing advances (NNPA) as a proportion of total net advances

for all scheduled commercial banks increased to 2.8 per cent from March to

September 2015, from 2.5 per cent.The contribution of 䃌ve sub-sectors — mining, iron and steel, textiles,

infrastructure and aviation — to the total of stressed advances was 53 per

cent.

Stressed advances in the aviation sector increased to 61 per cent in June

2015 from 58.9 per cent in March. That of the infrastructure sector increased

to 24 per cent, from 22.9 per cent.

The performance of these sectors and their impact on the asset quality of

banks continue to be a cause for concern.

Trade:

The Survey also had particularly pointed recommendations about the

direction of India’s trade policy, saying “introspection is overdue” on issues

including its continued support to farmers that are controversial at the World

Trade Organization.

The Survey concludes India should “resist calls to seek recourse in

protectionist measures, especially in relation to items that could undermine

the competitiveness of downstream 䃌rms”.

The Centre has recently imposed price controls on the import of steel, which

auto 䃌rms have protested.

Reforms inclined towards rich: Bounties for the Well-off

The survey makes a case for unpopular reforms, such as bringing

agricultural incomes in the tax net, rationalisation of fertiliser subsidies

estimated at Rs. 75,000 crore (excluding arrears) and the withdrawal of tax

bene䃌ts which bene䃌t mainly the rich.

Restricting the cooking gas subsidy to 10 cylinders from 12 at present,

raising the levels of property tax and desisting from raising the income tax

threshold. This needs to be done while taxes and duties on domestic and

commercial LPG users are aligned

Venturing into the politically sensitive issue of fertilizer subsidy, whose


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bene䃌ciaries are ostensibly poor farmers, survey points to three forms of

leakages and lacunae: black marketeering, inability of small farmers to

derive full bene䃌ts, and inef䃌ciency of fertilizer manufacture.

The report identi䃌ed seven areas — small savings schemes, kerosene,

railways, electricity, LPG, gold and aviation turbine fuel –– where the

bene䃌ts of subsidies accrue largely to the ‘well-off’, de䃌ned as the top 70 per

cent of the population based on expenditure distribution as per NationalSample Survey data.

Reducing subsidies in these areas would do good not only from a 䃌scal and

welfare perspective, but also from a political economy welfare perspective,

and lend credibility to other market-oriented reforms

“Strengthening the state by improving 䃌scal relations between the rich and

the poor is one of the two main messages of the Budget,”

Challenges ahead:

Raising pay for government employees as per 7 pay commission

Bail out banks without increasing borrowing.

Challenge of creating good jobs is proving dif䃌cult

Too many regulations have harmed job creation – worker-centric rule

needed

Competitive federalism is needed to reduce bottlenecks in clearances

Transparency and simplicity needed in power rates

Easier power supply to encourage ‘Make in India’

Disappointments:

Failure to pass a goods and services tax, underperformance on

disinvestment and privatization,

Incomplete rationalization of subsidies

Stressed balance sheets of banks and private companies.

Need of the hour:

Improved investments in education and health, where India fares the worst

among BRICS nations and adequate attention to agriculture could realise

the potential.

In the wake of four seasons of weak rainfall and consequent adversity,

agriculture has served a wake-up call, demanding attention from policy

makers.

th


8/18



In the un䃌nished agenda, the Goods and Services Tax, strategic

disinvestment, de-stressing of the balance sheet of both banks and private

companies, and the rationalisation of subsidies.

Stretched corporate and bank balance sheets are affecting prospects for

reviving private investments, and so the underlying stressed assets must be

sold or rehabilitated.

Aggressive disinvestment and subsidy reforms would have releasedresources for much-needed public capital expenditures to counter weak

external demand and crowd-in private investments.

The Survey examines the problem of “exit” – Chakravyuh Challenge of Economy:

The Survey has likened the Indian economy in the 21st century to the

‘Chakravyuh’ legend of Mahabharata – the ability to enter but not exit –

cautioning the country is facing adverse consequences due to the lack of a

way out for failed ventures

Just as a market economy requires unrestricted entry of new 䃌rms, new

ideas and new technologies, it also requires an exit route so that resources

are forced or enticed away from inef䃌cient and unsustainable uses

Stressed corporate and bank balance sheets were partly because it was

dif䃌cult for capital to exit enterprises or investments that had turned

unpro䃌table.

As a consequence, India was littered with 䃌rms that were too small and

unproductive, taking up scarce resources more ef䃌ciently allocated

elsewhere.

In addition to the proposed bankruptcy law, the Survey argues for

independent sector regulators and ending resistance to privatization by

sharing the resources freed up with affected employees.

The underlying stressed assets in the corporate sector must be sold or

rehabilitated. Future incentives for the private sector must be set right, to

avoid a repetition.

Decanalising urea imports:

According to the Survey, this would increase the number of importers, allow

greater freedom in import decision and allow supply to respond ‘쁦exibly and

quickly’ to changes in demand.

The Survey also recommends bringing urea under the nutrient-based

subsidy programme, which would allow domestic producers to continue


9/18



receiving 䃌xed subsidies based on the nutritional content of their fertilizer.

Spreading the JAM

The Survey also recommends expanding the coverage for JAM (Jan Dhan –

Aadhaar – Mobile) as in the case of the Direct Bene䃌t Transfer scheme for

LPG, since the Centre controls the fertilizer supply chain.

However, the Survey points out that targeting the poor are dif䃌cult at thebest of times. It therefore suggested a cap on the number of subsidized

bags that each household could purchase, with biometric authentication at

the point of sale.

What is the difference between 2014-15 and 2016-17 economic survey?

The 2014-15 Economic Survey had introduced the “JAM” acronym –

standing for Jan-Dhan, Aadhaar and mobiles – to better target welfare

spending. this year’s Survey has given importance towards ‘Spreading JAMAcross the Economy’

This year’s Survey takes the idea further, saying that direct bene䃌t transfers

(DBT) in household liquid petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders had worked in

reducing leakage – and arguing that because of close central control on

spending the fertiliser subsidy should be the next target for such transfers,

and that the fertilizer sector was overdue for reform.

The 2015-16 survey, by contrast, emphasizes the need for “a recalibration of

expectations” and making “conditional” assessments of the economy’sperformance over the coming year. The main reason for this is “an unusually

challenging and weak external environment”.

But external factors apart, there is also an admission of internal political

failure to push reforms: “Approval for the game-changing GST bills has

proved elusive so far; the disinvestment programme fell short of targets,

including that of achieving strategic sales; and the next stage of subsidy

rationalization is a work-in-progress”.

Way ahead

A clear strategy on disinvestment extending to sale of majority government

equity and Commitment to credible 䃌scal consolidation is what investors

will primarily look for.

But beyond the budget, the government’s efforts to get at least two

important legislation — those relating to the GST and a comprehensive


10/18



bankruptcy code (enabling businesses to shut as easily as to start) —

through Parliament would also matter. And that requires creating the right

political environment, for which the responsibility lies more with the party in

power.

India’s macro economy is robust and it is likely to be the fastest growing

major economy in the world in 2016. For an economy where exports have

declined due to weak global demand and private investment remains weak,India’s economy is performing remarkably well

The Survey said that the government’s initiatives including the new

bankruptcy law, rehabilitation of stalled projects, proposed changes to the

Prevention of Corruption Act as well as the expansion of the direct bene䃌t

scheme holds the promise of providing a signi䃌cant boost to long-run

ef䃌ciency and growth.

The Survey reckons that the 3.9 per cent 䃌scal de䃌cit target for 2015-16 is

achievable. It notes that the time is ripe for a review of the medium-term䃌scal framework.

The Survey stops short of recommending whether or not the government

should deviate from its set 䃌scal goals. It says there are very good

arguments for a strategy of “aggressive 䃌scal consolidation” as well as a

strategy of “moderate consolidation”.

Fiscal consolidation:

While making arguments both for and against the current path of 䃌scal

consolidation, the Survey seemed to argue overall for a less stringent 䃌scal

consolidation path

The Survey concludes that even a gradual recovery of nominal growth –

which, thanks to de쁦ationary pressure has been lower than expected, driving

the debt-to-GDP ratio upward – would be suf䃌cient in any case to deal with

the debt problem it had cited as the main reason for sticking to the current

䃌scal consolidation path.

In one of its more speci䃌c recommendations, the Survey suggested higher

property taxes, which it said would “put sand in the wheels of property

speculation.” Smart cities require smart public ãnance, the Survey noted, and

sound property taxation is vital to India’s urban future.

Connecting the dots :


11/18



Strengthening the state by improving 䃌scal relations between the rich and

the poor is one of the two main messages of the Budget,” Comment.

What it means to be ‘national’

Hindu (http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-opinion/what-it-means-to-be-

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12 Comments 1

• •

DD •

Babaji, super article. I have not read it yet but hope to read it soon. This will help me

certainly during revision.

Dhanyavaad :)

• •

Chandler •

Sirs.. such a great job..thank u myriadly...

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14/18



• •

J@LS@ •

Thanks BABA!!!

• •

Yaswanth Reddy •

Deser ve more than a thxs

• •

Ramesh •

Baba ji.. isn't it 2015 - 2016 survey instead 2016 - 2017..??

Corr ect me.. if i'm wrong..

Good summary.. thanks

• •

IASbaba • Admin

Yes, it is Economic Survey 2015-16.

• •

Vishal Rana •

Ramesh its FY 2016-2017 Survey Because its a forecast for 16-17

• •

Abhishek •

Economic survey is not future pprediction, its the review of last financialyear.So it should be Fy 2015-16.

Budget do the future planning,so budget should be of 2016-17.

Here is economic survey defenition from indianbudget.nic.in

"A flagship annual document of the Ministry of Finance, Government of

India, Economic Survey 2015–16 reviews the developments in the Indian

economy over the previous 12 months, summarizes the performance on

major development programmes, and highlights the policy initiatives of the

government......"

• •

thevagabond85 •

"What is the difference between 2014-15 and 2016-17 economic survey?"

we clearly find the missing gap of 1 year at least ;)

However, correctED in the content

"The 2015-16 survey, by contrast, emphasizes the need for...."

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15/18



1. The recent controversy surrounding

temple entry of women in many states

•

— India is an evolving

society formed from the confluence of

myriad tradition and cultures. recent

1. India needs to push forward for the

finalization of ongoing FTA negotiations

•

— Trans-pacific partnership(TPP)

was recently finalized by Pacific littoral

states and going by leading economist, it

1. Write a short essay in about 500words on the crisis of West Asia. (Note:

•

— The history of the West Asian

Crisis dates back to 20th century

,however the crisis has deteriorated in

2. Urban flooding has become arecurring phenomenon in Indian cities.

•

— Please Review

IASBABA

• •

manoj gupta •

Thank you for making our prep easier than ever.

• •

Abhishek •

Baba ji,i hv sent you my payment details today morning.please provide me login and id

asap.Its high time,hope you can understand.

Also please allow us to create our own login id and password and later we can choose toupgrade basic membership to paid one.this will reduce the problem of delay.

Thanks

• •

Abhishek •

Thank you baba ji for quick response.

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16/18



IASbaba’s Test Series 9 – LIVE ! (http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/iasbabas-test-series-9-live/) March 10,

2016

IASbaba’s TLP 2016 [9th March]: UPSC Mains GS Questions [HOT]: Synopsis

(http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/iasbabas-tlp-2016-9th-march-upsc-mains-gs-questions-hot-synopsis/)

March 10, 2016

IASbaba’s TLP 2016 [10th March]: UPSC Mains GS Questions [HOT]

(http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/iasbabas-tlp-2016-10th-march-upsc-mains-gs-questions-hot/) March 10,

2016

3. Academics and research must not be divorced in order to make Indian universities world class?

What do understand by this statement? Do you think research scholars should be encouraged to take

classes in universities? Substantiate your arguments. (http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/3-academics-

research-must-not-divorced-order-make-indian-universities-world-class-understand-statement-think-

research-scholars-encouraged-take-class/) March 10, 2016

2. Urban 쁦ooding has become a recurring phenomenon in Indian cities. What are the main reasons

behind this? Also explain the preventive and mitigative measures to handle urban 쁦ooding.

(http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/2-urban-쁦ooding-become-recurring-phenomenon-indian-cities-main-

reasons-behind-also-explain-preventive-mitigative-measures-handle-urban-쁦ooding/) March 10, 2016

(http://iasbaba.com/2016/01/delhi-workshop-

feedback/)

New posts on IASbaba

* ILP WORKSHOP FEEDBACK– 2016 *

*IASbaba’s Monthly Magazine- JANUARY 2016*

http://iasbaba.com/2016/01/delhi-workshop-feedback/http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/2-urban-flooding-become-recurring-phenomenon-indian-cities-main-reasons-behind-also-explain-preventive-mitigative-measures-handle-urban-flooding/http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/3-academics-research-must-not-divorced-order-make-indian-universities-world-class-understand-statement-think-research-scholars-encouraged-take-class/http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/iasbabas-tlp-2016-10th-march-upsc-mains-gs-questions-hot/http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/iasbabas-tlp-2016-9th-march-upsc-mains-gs-questions-hot-synopsis/http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/iasbabas-test-series-9-live/


17/18



(http://iasbaba.com/2016/02/iasbaba-monthly-magazine-january-

2016/)

(http://iasbaba.com/2016/02/iasbaba-yojana-kurukshetra-january-

2016/)



Yojana/Kurukshetra Gist

Think, Learn & Perform Mains-2016

http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/iasbabas-tlp-2016-9th-march-upsc-mains-gs-questions-hot-synopsis/http://iasbaba.com/2016/02/iasbaba-yojana-kurukshetra-january-2016/http://iasbaba.com/2016/02/iasbaba-monthly-magazine-january-2016/


18/18


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IASbaba’s Daily Current Affairs – 9th March, 2016 (http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/iasbabas-daily-current-affairs-9th-march-2016/)

IASbaba’s Daily Current Affairs – 8th March, 2016 (http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/iasbabas-daily-

current-affairs-8th-march-2016/)

Baba's Daily Current Affairs
http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/iasbabas-daily-current-affairs-8th-march-2016/http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/iasbabas-daily-current-affairs-9th-march-2016/http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/iasbabas-tlp-2016-8th-march-upsc-mains-gs-questions-hot/http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/iasbabas-tlp-2016-9th-march-upsc-mains-gs-questions-hot/http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/iasbabas-tlp-2016-8th-march-upsc-mains-gs-questions-hot-synopsis/http://iasbaba.com/2016/03/iasbabas-tlp-2016-10th-march-upsc-mains-gs-questions-hot/

Documents

IASbaba’s Daily Economic Survey Current Affairs – 27th February, 2016 - IASbaba