ICMSSR 31 May 2007

Dr. Jeff Kimpel

National Severe Storms Laboratory

Update on

Multifunction Phased Array Radar (MPAR)

SPY-1D Phased Array Radar aboardDDG-79 USS OSCAR AUSTIN

Overview

• Background• MPAR Status• Benefits• Cost Issues• Future Efforts• Recommendation

Background - What is Phased Array Radar?

Mechanically Steered, Rotating Reflector Array

Electrically Steered, Fixed Phased Array

Planar phase front

Planar phase front

Electrical added phase delay

VS

Background - MPAR Program Origin• NRC Report Beyond NEXRAD (2002), recommends PAR technology

be developed as replacement for legacy weather radars• In 2004, Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and

Supporting Research (FCMSSR) directed an interagency Joint Action Group be convened to assess R&D priorities for phased array radar

• Joint Action Group Report on Phased Array Radar R&D Needs and Priorities published in June 2006 and briefed to ICMSSR as multi-function capability for both weather and air surveillance

AirSurveillance

Aircraft Surveillance

&Weather

Surveillance

DOT/FAA

DOC/NOAA

Weather Surveillance

DOD/DHS

MPAR Status• Mission

– Evaluate new technology and develop the next generation MPAR network

– Develop interagency management structure

• Objective– Develop affordable MPAR network for improved:

• Weather data for aviation safety• Numerical weather prediction (modeling)• Airport efficiency and capacity• Aircraft detection and tracking (cooperative and non-cooperative)• Natural disaster warning

& response• Homeland security (toxic plumes)• Volcanic ash detection• Wildland fire smoke detection

2006 - 2010MPAR Pre-Prototype

MPAR Status - Evolution

2000-2002Dual-Use Science &Technology

19961996 1997199719931993 19941994 19951995199119911990199019891989 19921992 19981998 19991999 200020002007 2008 and beyond…2007 2008 and beyond…20042004 20052005 20062006200220022001200120002000 20032003

Long-Range Surveillance

Severe Weather

Non-Cooperative Targets

Weather Fronts

Terminal Surveillance

WMD Cloud

2001-2005+Nat’l Wx Radar Testbed

BACKUP SLIDES

National Weather Radar Testbed

Norman, OK

MPAR Status

19:41:12 19:44:35

19:50:15 19:53:19

19:46:51

19:56:34

MPAR

MPAR

TDWR

TDWR

MPAR Status - Microburst Event MPAR captures 29 clear images and more data during the time it takes TDWR for 6, the result is better forecasts and earlier warnings

Strong updraft indicated by weak echo region

Rapid descent of high reflectivity core

Strong outflow at 19:56:00

Weak outflow in corresponding velocity field at 19:51:03

U.S. Surveillance Radar Networks Today

ASR-11sARSR-4s

NEXRADs TDWRs

ASR-9s

MPAR Status

Multi-Mission PAR for Tomorrow

ARSR-4ARSR-4ARSR-3ARSR-3ARSR-1/2ARSR-1/2

Today Future Concept

510* Radars, 8 Types334 Radars, 1 Type

Joint Agency GroupRecommendations

NEXRADNEXRAD TDWRTDWR

ASR-9ASR-9 ASR-11ASR-11

•Sustain

•PartiallyModernize

•Replace

5000 ft AGL, Blue, weather only

Affordable MultifunctionPhased ArrayRadar (MPAR)

Stove-pipedApproach:

• NWRT Proof-of-concept tests

• Develop scaled prototype and critical technologies

• NWRT Proof-of-concept tests

• Develop scaled prototype and critical technologies

Mid 2007-2012:

• Full-scale prototype &operational test

• Full-scale prototype &operational test

2010 - 2016:

2006:

• Define concept and R&D roadmap

• Define concept and R&D roadmap

Reduced number of radars

Consolidated maintenance and logistics infrastructure

Enhanced capabilities

*Includes Operational CONUS radar only

ASR-8ASR-8

MPAR Status

Benefits

• Potential replacement for aging fleet of mechanically scanning radars over next 20 years

• Allows consolidation of multiple single-mission radars into a single system, reducing national radar fleet by > 40%, saving nearly $5B over 30-year lifecycle

• Provides both air and weather surveillance from a single radar site

• No moving parts, lower maintenance costs• Multiple transmit/receiver components; avoids

single point of failure• Scalable design of prototype will provide proof

of concept for future MPAR

Benefits• Better weather measurements

– Rapid temporal sampling; full volume scan periods < 1 minute– Electronic scan can be programmed to contours of the horizon,

reducing ground clutter– Adaptive dwell times/beam steering; selective target revisit in

seconds rather than minutes– Split aperture correlation to estimate crossbeam wind

component; 3-D vector wind fields for assimilation into NWP– Dual polarization for hydrometeor discrimination

• Increased safety and capacity in severe weather conditions– Increased lead time for tornado warnings– Increased lead time for flood & severe weather warnings– Better initializing of national numerical weather prediction

models leading to improved forecasting

Benefits • Terminal & En route surveillance

– Significant reduction in false track probability– Vertical position measurement for dedicated track modes– Very rapid track update rates in terminal area

• Homeland security– Non-cooperative target tracking– Wind field mapping for dispersion models

– Nuclear biological chemical (NBC) tracking…R&D needed• Discrimination of non-meteorological hazards:

volcanic ash, airborne debris, smoke detection/tracking, biological scatterers (bird flocks), etc.

Cost Issues

Concept of Operations (CONOPS)

Concept of Operations (CONOPS)

Operational Requirements (User Needs)

Operational Requirements (User Needs)

Performance Requirements

(Characteristics)

Performance Requirements

(Characteristics)

Drives

Drives

Radar System Architecture &

Design

Radar System Architecture &

DesignDrives

MPAR Cost

Drives

Scale

RF Solid-State T/R Module Trends

EstimatedProductionCost ($K)

per module

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1995 1997 1999 2005 2010

Cost

Power

System costs substantially reduced & operation costs lower every year

Cost Issues

Future Efforts

• Develop affordable MPAR prototype for civilian use• Refine radar requirements and lay groundwork for

MPAR cost/benefit analysis• Implement 9-year Research and Development Plan

proposed in JAG PAR report, culminating in full prototype

• Establish contacts/initiating partnerships with industry leaders in phased array technology

• Coordinate agency programming for MPAR risk reduction effort: NOAA and FAA planning significant investments by 2009; DHS and DOD investments still TBD

Future Efforts

• National Academies’ Board of Atmospheric Science and Climate enlisted to evaluate MPAR planning process to date and to make recommendations

• MPAR Symposium, 10-11 October, Norman, OK, will engage federal stakeholders, academia, industry

• MPAR WG will continue to refine user requirements -- Attend DHS/NORTHCOM Summit in Colorado Springs, 19-20 June to pin down homeland air surveillance requirements -- Engage with JPDO to solidify NextGen aviation requirements• Solidify technical requirements for MPAR system:

engineering trade studies to balance user needs with lowest cost– Number of independent channels (TBD)– Number of concurrent beams per channel (TBD)– Number of T/R modules per face (TBD)– Optimal scanning strategies (TBD)

Tentative Timeline for MPAR Development

Critical Technologies / Pre-Prototype

Design Contract Build

Full MPAR Prototype

2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Technical OperationalDesign Contract /Build Tests Tests

Calendar Year

Decision

Point

Future Efforts

Recommendation

• Support MPAR Working Group Activities, including MPAR risk-reduction program

Questions?