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ICT solutions supporting collaborative information acquisition, situation assessment and decision making in contemporary environmental management problems: the DIADEM approach Sahar Asadi 1 , Costin Badica 2 , Tina Comes 3 , Claudine Conrado 4 , Vanessa Evers 5 , Frans Groen 5 , Sorin Ilie 2 , Jan Steen Jensen 6 , Achim Lilienthal 1 , Bianca Milan 7 , Thomas Neidhart 8 , Kees Nieuwenhuis 4 , Sepideh Pashami 1 , Gregor Pavlin 4 , Jan Pehrsson 9 , Rani Pinchuk 8 , Mihnea Scafes 2 , Leo Schou-Jensen 9 , Frank Schultmann 3 and Niek Wijngaards 4 Abstract This paper presents a framework of ICT solutions developed in the EU research project DIADEM that supports envi- ronmental management for chemical hazards in industrial areas, with an enhanced capacity to assess population ex- posure and health risks, alert relevant groups and organize efficient response. The emphasis is on advanced solutions which are economically feasible and maximally exploit the existing communication, computing and sensing re- sources. This approach supports collaborative information acquisition thus enabling efficient situation assessment and decision making in complex environmental management applications. This is achieved through a combination of (i) a service-oriented approach supporting the integration of automated and human-based reasoning for large-scale collaborative sensemaking, (ii) advanced approaches to gas detection and gas distribution modelling, (iii) novel solu- tions combining Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Scenario-Based Reasoning and (iv) enhanced human-machine interfaces. This paper presents the basic principles of the DIADEM solutions and how they are combined to a coher- ent decision support system and briefly discusses the evaluation principles and activities in the DIADEM project. 1. Introduction This paper illustrates the research and development results of the DIADEM project (FP7, call ICT- 2007.6.3). The project focuses on a novel combination of advanced technologies that facilitate collabora- tive information processing in environmental management applications. The research and development were guided by real-world requirements provided by the DIADEM user partners DCMR (Environmental Protection Agency, Port of Rotterdam area, The Netherlands) and DEMA (Danish Emergency Manage- ment Agency, Denmark). In general, prevention and mitigation of environmental conditions with potentially adverse effects on the population and eco-systems requires (i) identification of critical situations, (ii) impact assessment tak- 1 Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden, e-mail: {sahar.asadi, achim.lilienthal, sepideh.pashami}@oru.se 2 University of Craiova, Craiova, Romania, e-mail: {cbadica, ilie_sorin, scafes_mihnea}@software.ucv.ro 3 Karslruhe Institute of Technology, Karslruhe, Germany, e-mail: {comes, frank.schultmann}@kit.edu 4 Thales Research and Technology, Delft, The Netherlands, e-mail: {claudine.conrado, kees.nieuwenhuis, gregor.pavlin, niek.wijngaards}@d-cis.nl 5 University of Amsterdam, Informatics Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, e-mail: {v.evers, f.c.a.groen}@uva.nl 6 DEMA Chemical Division, Copenhagen, Denmark, e-mail: [email protected] 7 DCMR Environmental Protection Agency, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, e-mail: [email protected] 8 Space Applications Services, Zaventem, Belgium, e-mail: {thomas.neidhart, rani.pinchuk}@spaceapplications.com 9 Prolog Development Center, Copenhagen, Denmark, e-mail: {jp, leo}@pdc.dk EnviroInfo 2011: Innovations in Sharing Environmental Observations and Information Copyright 2011 Shaker Verlag Aachen, ISBN: 978-3-8440-0451-9

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Page 1: ICT solutions supporting collaborative information acquisition, …enviroinfo.eu/sites/default/files/pdfs/vol7233/0920.pdf · 2013. 8. 8. · , Rani Pinchuk. 8, Mihnea Scafes. 2,

ICT solutions supporting collaborative information acquisition,

situation assessment and decision making in contemporary

environmental management problems: the DIADEM approach

Sahar Asadi1 , Costin Badica2, Tina Comes3, Claudine Conrado4, Vanessa Evers5, Frans

Groen5 , Sorin Ilie2, Jan Steen Jensen6, Achim Lilienthal1, Bianca Milan7, Thomas

Neidhart8, Kees Nieuwenhuis4, Sepideh Pashami1, Gregor Pavlin4, Jan Pehrsson9, Rani

Pinchuk8, Mihnea Scafes2, Leo Schou-Jensen9, Frank Schultmann3 and Niek Wijngaards4

Abstract

This paper presents a framework of ICT solutions developed in the EU research project DIADEM that supports envi-

ronmental management for chemical hazards in industrial areas, with an enhanced capacity to assess population ex-

posure and health risks, alert relevant groups and organize efficient response. The emphasis is on advanced solutions

which are economically feasible and maximally exploit the existing communication, computing and sensing re-

sources. This approach supports collaborative information acquisition thus enabling efficient situation assessment

and decision making in complex environmental management applications. This is achieved through a combination of

(i) a service-oriented approach supporting the integration of automated and human-based reasoning for large-scale

collaborative sensemaking, (ii) advanced approaches to gas detection and gas distribution modelling, (iii) novel solu-

tions combining Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Scenario-Based Reasoning and (iv) enhanced human-machine

interfaces. This paper presents the basic principles of the DIADEM solutions and how they are combined to a coher-

ent decision support system and briefly discusses the evaluation principles and activities in the DIADEM project.

1. Introduction

This paper illustrates the research and development results of the DIADEM project (FP7, call ICT-

2007.6.3). The project focuses on a novel combination of advanced technologies that facilitate collabora-

tive information processing in environmental management applications. The research and development

were guided by real-world requirements provided by the DIADEM user partners DCMR (Environmental

Protection Agency, Port of Rotterdam area, The Netherlands) and DEMA (Danish Emergency Manage-

ment Agency, Denmark).

In general, prevention and mitigation of environmental conditions with potentially adverse effects on

the population and eco-systems requires (i) identification of critical situations, (ii) impact assessment tak-

1 Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden, e-mail: {sahar.asadi, achim.lilienthal, sepideh.pashami}@oru.se 2 University of Craiova, Craiova, Romania, e-mail: {cbadica, ilie_sorin, scafes_mihnea}@software.ucv.ro 3 Karslruhe Institute of Technology, Karslruhe, Germany, e-mail: {comes, frank.schultmann}@kit.edu 4 Thales Research and Technology, Delft, The Netherlands, e-mail: {claudine.conrado, kees.nieuwenhuis, gregor.pavlin,

niek.wijngaards}@d-cis.nl 5 University of Amsterdam, Informatics Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, e-mail: {v.evers, f.c.a.groen}@uva.nl 6 DEMA Chemical Division, Copenhagen, Denmark, e-mail: [email protected] 7 DCMR Environmental Protection Agency, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, e-mail: [email protected] 8 Space Applications Services, Zaventem, Belgium, e-mail: {thomas.neidhart, rani.pinchuk}@spaceapplications.com 9 Prolog Development Center, Copenhagen, Denmark, e-mail: {jp, leo}@pdc.dk

EnviroInfo 2011: Innovations in Sharing Environmental Observations and InformationCopyright 2011 Shaker Verlag Aachen, ISBN: 978-3-8440-0451-9

Page 2: ICT solutions supporting collaborative information acquisition, …enviroinfo.eu/sites/default/files/pdfs/vol7233/0920.pdf · 2013. 8. 8. · , Rani Pinchuk. 8, Mihnea Scafes. 2,

ing into account possible evolutions of physical processes, (iii) planning and evaluation of preventive and

mitigation measures and (iv) decision making to select appropriate actions. This can only be achieved

through adequate processing of large quantities of heterogeneous information based on rich expertise

about diverse aspects of the physical world. To be able to process such quantities of information, automat-

ed solutions to processing must be used. However, the assessment and decision making processes cannot

be fully automated due to the domain complexity and lack of complete models. In addition, full automa-

tion might not be acceptable in many real-world organizations where people need to be in charge and be

accountable. Instead, the DIADEM approach supports evolutionary automation: automate wherever possi-

ble and keep the humans in the processing loop wherever automated solutions cannot be made reliable.

This paper provides an overview of the problems targeted by the DIADEM project and the resulting so-

lutions. In each section, we mention the addressed challenge(s) and the developed solution, each focusing

on different aspects of environmental management. Detailed discussion about specific solutions can be

found in multiple technical and scientific papers referenced throughout this paper.

2. The DIADEM Approach: an Overview

The DIADEM solutions are illustrated with the help of a simplified example derived from real-world use

cases. We assume a malfunction at a chemical plant located in a heavily industrialized and densely popu-

lated area; a chemical leak produces a toxic plume that poses a serious threat to the residents thus creating

an emergency situation. To be able to make adequate decisions, many aspects have to be taken into ac-

count, such as the actual situation, the potential impact on health, the economic consequences as well as

the risks associated with possible mitigating actions. DIADEM provides a set of complementary tools and

methods addressing the following challenges:

Challenge 1: Assessment of the current situation, e.g. early plume detection, identification of pollution

sources, concentration estimates near the sources and current impact on people’s health.

Challenge 2: Prediction of the future states, e.g. the potential impact on the population.

Challenge 3: Evaluation of decision alternatives considering assessed situation and consequences.

Challenge 4: Systematic logging of large amounts of information and analysis of the effectiveness and

efficiency of the disaster management processes.

The DIADEM approach is depicted in Figure 1.

Figure 1

The DIADEM approach: a combination of complementary solutions provides a mapping between infor-

mation gathered in the domain, situation awareness and decision making. Acronyms are explained below.

GDMARGOS

DGDS

DPIF + Negotiation

SBR+MCDA

Understand current situationPredict future states +

Evaluate alternatives

Chemical Incident

+ toxic plumeEvaluation of decision

alternativesPlume estimates Estimate local

concentrations

Detect plumes +

find sources

Reason about the

current situation and

possible evolution of

states.

GDMARGOS

DGDS

DPIF + Negotiation

SBR+MCDA

Understand current situationPredict future states +

Evaluate alternatives

Chemical Incident

+ toxic plumeEvaluation of decision

alternativesPlume estimates Estimate local

concentrations

Detect plumes +

find sources

Reason about the

current situation and

possible evolution of

states.

Copyright 2011 Shaker Verlag Aachen, ISBN: 978-3-8440-0451-9

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3. DIADEM Integration and Collaboration Framework

Important aspects of Challenge 1 and Challenge 2 are the processing requirements which usually exceed

cognitive capabilities of a single human expert; typically, an expert does not have knowledge of all rele-

vant mechanisms in the domain and cannot process huge amounts of available information. Therefore,

complex assessment is often carried out in systems which can be characterized as professional bureaucra-

cies (van Aart 2004), a class of organizations in which skills are standardized, control is decentralized to a

great extent and the experts do not have to share domain knowledge. Unfortunately, in the state-of-the-art

approaches, the assessment is often jeopardized through inability to deliver the right information to the

right expert or automated tool at the right time. This is a consequence of using traditional communication

means such as phones or simple web-portals, representing information in a centralized way. In DIADEM

these challenges are tackled with the help of the Dynamic Process Integration Framework (DPIF), a ser-

vice-oriented architecture which provides a uniform “service encapsulation” as well as automated creation

of information flows between the relevant experts and automated processes (Pavlin/Kamermans/Scafes

2010). Each expert and automated process is associated with a DPIF assistant agent, which collects all the

relevant information and disseminates the higher level interpretations in the form of conclusions or esti-

mates to the DPIF agents of other interested service providers. In other words, DPIF assistant agents put

service providers into workflows and facilitate information dissemination. In addition, the OntoWizard

tool has been developed which allows easy creation of assistant agents. By taking into account the proper-

ties of professional bureaucracies, both the DPIF and the OntoWizard allow efficient creation of complex

service-oriented analysis systems (Penders/Pavlin/Kamermans 2010).

Figure 2 illustrates a system of DPIF agents supporting assessment in our running example. Agent

named DPN-6, supporting automated leak localization, communicates the leak estimates to the DPIF agent

of the operator (CO) at an environmental protection agency. By using his DPIF agent, the operator triggers

the attention of a chemical expert (CE1), who immediately goes to the identified location and estimates

the quantity and type of the escaping chemical.

Figure 2

A system of DPIF agents encapsulating human experts or automated reasoning processes.

Copyright 2011 Shaker Verlag Aachen, ISBN: 978-3-8440-0451-9

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At the same time, the automated ARGOS service (see section 6) is triggered and supplies an initial

plume estimate to the people approaching the incident site, for example CE1. In addition, CE1 requests a

concentration map in the vicinity of the incident. By using his DPIF agent, he triggers the GDM concen-

tration estimation service (see section 5) that returns a concentration map. The agent of CE1 also com-

municates the information about the leak to chemical expert CE2 specialized in plume estimation. Given

this information, CE2 can (i) estimate the zones where gas concentrations exceed critical levels and (ii)

identify areas which are likely to become critical after some time. Moreover, to improve the initial chemi-

cal plume estimate, CE2 asks his DPIF agent to look for additional information based on in-situ measure-

ments at specific locations. CE2’s agent starts a search for experts MT1, MT2, …, MTn associated with

mobile units that can perform measurements at requested locations within a specified time interval. The

choice of the measurement teams is based on negotiation about availability and response times, handled by

the DPIF agents of MT1, MT2, …, MTn and CE2. After accepting MT2, MT5 and MT6 for the task, these

teams perform the requested measurements and use their agents to communicate their results to CE2. The

agents of MT2, MT5, MT6 and CE2 make sure the measurements are automatically routed to CE2. Final-

ly, a map with critical areas is supplied to a health expert (HE), who uses this in combination with infor-

mation on population densities to estimate the impact of the toxic fumes on the population in case of expo-

sure. The DPIF agents of CE2 and HE take care of delivering the information on critical zones to HE.

In the DPIF, communication links between local processes in agents are facilitated by using service dis-

covery: whenever an agent (a “manager” agent) supplying some service in a workflow requires data relat-

ing to some other service, supplied by another agent (a “contractor” agent), a communication link needs to

be established between the manager agent and the contractor agent. However, service discovery alone can

only offer links between agents based on a broad level of service matching, while for solving a particular

problem, a finer level of control is required to match services on additional parameters. Establishing links

is based on the application of a one-to-many service negotiation technique based on ranking. Rather than

performing perfect matching with service discovery, this type of negotiation allows us to filter potential

links found through service discovery based on additional service parameters.

Negotiation is a process that describes the interaction between one or more participants that must agree

on a subject by exchanging deals or proposals about this subject (Jennings/Faratin/Lomuscio/Parsons/

Sierra/Wooldridge 2001). Negotiation about a service that one or more participants agree to provide to

other participants is called service negotiation. We have developed a conceptual framework for service

negotiation that is used in the DPIF. The framework is generic and it addresses negotiation protocols, ne-

gotiation subjects and decision components (Badica/Scafes 2010). The design and implementation have

been described (Scafes/Badica/Pavlin/Kamermans 2010) as well as the currently supported negotiation

protocols (Badica/Ilie/Pavlin/Kamermans/Scafes 2011).

4. Gas Detection Using Heterogeneous Sensors and Information from Citizens

Early detection of harmful gases and determination of possible sources are crucial capabilities in environ-

mental management, which address Challenge 1. In the targeted domains, such detection is especially dif-

ficult as networks of calibrated chemical sensors with adequate coverage and density are not available. In-

stead, the estimation must be based on observations of simple sensors as well as reports from field inspec-

tors and people complaining about unusual smells and health symptoms. Detection and localization based

on such heterogeneous information requires significant expertise and processing capabilities. In state-of-

the-art approaches, the communication and processing are carried out by humans. As noted by experts, of-

ten only a small fraction of the relevant information is exploited due to communication and processing

bottlenecks. In DIADEM, we approached the detection and localization problem by combining advanced

approaches to information fusion and human-machine interaction. The resulting Distributed Gas Detection

Copyright 2011 Shaker Verlag Aachen, ISBN: 978-3-8440-0451-9

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System (DGDS) is a multi-agent system which supports automated detection of annoying and dangerous

gaseous substances and the localization of sources by combining complementary sub-systems:

Computational sub-system: based on a fully automated variant of DPIF agents (represented in Figure 2

by rectangles labeled DPN-1, …, DPN-6), supporting decentralized Bayesian information fusion.

Dialogue sub-system: supports efficient communication with (human) end-users. It exploits existing

communication infrastructures such as GSM, landlines and Internet.

Sensor interface: supports easy incorporation of arbitrary chemical sensors (plug and play).

Operator interface: supports clear representation of the detection results.

The computational sub-system can continuously analyze sensor outputs and complaints. It reacts to sensor

signals or complaints that are likely to be caused by the presence of some gas. Given the wind direction,

the system develops hypotheses, each corresponding to a potential source. Observations obtained within

the area associated with different hypotheses are used to rank the hypotheses according to the likelihood of

the potential sources. The likelihood is determined with the help of a novel approach to decentralized

Bayesian information fusion (Pavlin/Groen/de Oude/Kamermans 2010). Each fusion agent supports infer-

ence about relations between a limited set of phenomena using a specific, dynamically assembled Bayesi-

an network. This approach supports distributed information processing and simple addition of new infor-

mation sources, such as static and mobile sensors. It has been shown that the approach can support robust

detection (de Oude/Pavlin/de Groot 2010, Pavlin/de Oude/Mignet 2011).

Moreover, based on a thorough contextual analysis of tools and methods currently used at the DIADEM

user partner DCMR, we designed and implemented a prototype interface of a browser-based geographical

information system that can be connected to other DIADEM components and allows for information visu-

alization and sharing between experts to facilitate source detection of environmental incidents.

Figure 3

Bayesian networks assembled by the DGDS fusion modules are used to determine the most likely sources

by using sensor data and complaints. The hypotheses about sources are represented in the map by blue cir-

cles. The size of a circle corresponds to the score and the number is the rank of the hypothesis.

The DGDS can automatically query citizens via mobile phones and the Internet. In this way, we can ob-

tain and process at least three times more complaints than the current approaches without requiring extra

work from experts in the control room and field inspectors. In addition, arbitrary chemical sensors can eas-

ily be incorporated, which can further improve the responsiveness and the detection reliability.

Copyright 2011 Shaker Verlag Aachen, ISBN: 978-3-8440-0451-9

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5. Gas Monitoring Tool for the Estimation of Local Concentrations

In environmental problems where gas emission is present, it is critical to have a good estimate of the gas

distribution in order to highlight areas with potentially high gas accumulation, detect anomalies and local-

ize gas sources such as leakages. In order to deal with the issues addressed in Challenge 1, the gas moni-

toring tool contributes with two modules: advanced Gas Distribution Modelling (GDM) and Sensor Plan-

ning, as illustrated in Figure 4. The DPIF delivers all the relevant information to the gas monitoring tool

and delivers the outcomes to the interested components of DIADEM.

The main objective of the GDM module is to provide data-driven approaches to model gas distribution

in a real-world environment (Asadi/Reggente/Stachniss/Plagemann/Lilienthal 2011). Using statistical ap-

proaches enables GDM to provide a comprehensive view on a potentially large amount of data, helping

experts to quickly interpret the situation. Since the approach makes only weak assumptions about a partic-

ular functional form of the gas distribution (e.g., it does not assume that source locations are known),

complicated situations can be represented using GDM. In our running example, data are continuously col-

lected by a network of gas sensors and need to be interpreted online and real-time to aid the overall situa-

tion assessment and point out locations for additional measurements (Sensor Planning). To be able to cap-

ture time-variant gas distributions, a particular focus in DIADEM is on efficient, time-dependent models

where an appropriate time-scale can be set or is automatically learnt from the data. A time-dependent sta-

tistical gas distribution modelling approach called TD Kernel DM+V was developed (Asadi/Pashami/

Loutfi/Lilienthal 2011), which introduces a recency function that relates the age of a measurement to its

importance for building the gas distribution model.

Figure 4

Top: Network of stationary and mobile sensors collects measurements (left), which are sent to GDM

(right). Bottom: GDM builds relative gas distribution maps which are sent to the experts and interested

components. ARGOS visualizes this map and possibly improves its physical model (right). Sensor Plan-

ning uses output from GDM and suggests locations where to acquire more samples (left).

The Sensor Planning module makes suggestions to support experts in their decision regarding where to

send field operators or firefighters to collect further measurements. Suggested locations are computed

based on continuously updated gas distribution models obtained from the GDM component. To perform

sensor planning, an artificial potential field based approach is used. This approach allows the inclusion of

Copyright 2011 Shaker Verlag Aachen, ISBN: 978-3-8440-0451-9

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a number of objectives in the sensor planning, such as even exploration, the tendency to investigate areas

of increased gas accumulation and also unexplored areas. These areas are inferred from the gas distribu-

tion model. Additional priorities can be smoothly added by operators. Using the history of suggested sam-

pling locations and a scoring function allows the computation of sequences of measurement locations that

avoid jumps in the sensor trajectory and are thus suitable for mobile sensors.

6. ARGOS Decision Support Tool

The ARGOS decision support tool, which has its origins in nuclear emergency management and as a

prognosis tool for estimating the effect of chemical accidents in Denmark, has been integrated into the

DIADEM framework. The main application of ARGOS is to create a prognosis of how the situation will

evolve, for instance which areas will be affected, when the areas will be affected and what the air concen-

tration will be, thus addressing Challenge 2. ARGOS is used when the location and time of a (gas) release

into the air is known; in this case ARGOS has highly developed features for generating a prognosis for the

consequences of the release.

Within the DIADEM framework, ARGOS can work as a service to be called from the DPIF to deliver a

first prognosis of the likely affected areas back to the DPIF. Furthermore, ARGOS can be used as a work-

bench for experts to further detail the prognosis when more information becomes known and to create

what-if scenarios, and the results of further prognoses can be fed into the DPIF. One important usage of a

first quick prognosis is for the Incident Commanders to decide on how to approach the scene of the inci-

dent so that vehicles do not drive through a dangerous gas plume, or do not establish a base which will be

covered by the plume when the situation evolves. ARGOS takes current numerical weather prognosis data

into account retrieved from a meteorological institute. Moreover, ARGOS uses detailed information about

the environment and terrain; it can for example take the 3D building information into account for detailed

urban dispersion modelling. If needed, ARGOS can do detailed modelling of a release based on, e.g., in-

formation about spillage from tanks, leaks in pipes and information from fires.

Figure 5

Left: A 3D display of a prognosis within an urban environment with a 3D model of buildings. Right: Cal-

culation of health effects zones, from mild health effects (blue) to immediate danger to life (red).

As part of the generated prognosis, ARGOS can calculate what the health effects will be for several

chemicals. In DIADEM, ARGOS has been integrated with an Electronic Emergency Response Guide and

can use various standards for the health effects of the chemicals. ARGOS can also deliver detailed prog-

nosis data to the SBR&MCDA tool (see next section) to provide decision support about how to protect the

population (e.g., population evacuation or sheltering) in potentially affected areas.

Copyright 2011 Shaker Verlag Aachen, ISBN: 978-3-8440-0451-9

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7. Multi Criteria Decision Analysis and Scenario Based Reasoning

Challenge 3 is addressed by the Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (SBR&MCDA) frame-

work which exploits techniques from Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) to steer scenario construc-

tion and evaluate the arising scenarios. The framework supports decision makers, who need to take into

account multiple objectives in complex and uncertain strategic decision situations.

A key aspect in emergency management decisions is the availability and intelligibility of relevant in-

formation. Acquiring, filtering, structuring and distributing information to the right experts at the right

time and in the right form are challenging tasks (Comes/Conrado/Hiete/Kamermans/Pavlin/Wijngaards

2010). Additionally, large-scale emergencies are rare and complex events, where information is prone to

uncertainty. Often, it is even impossible (or it can hardly be justified) to quantify these uncertainties. In

these situations, scenarios allow for exploring the impact of an alternative (Schoemaker 1993).

The SBR&MCDA approach enables an evaluation of alternatives with respect to multiple objectives

taking into account primary uncertainties in a transparent manner (Comes/Hiete/Wijngaards/Schultmann

2011). In this way, a decision can become more robust: rather than selecting the best evaluated alternative

for one best-guess scenario, the approach supports the choice of alternatives that perform well for a variety

of possible situation developments. Furthermore, the use of MCDA provides a rationale for organizing and

filtering the flows of information in the scenario construction phase and ultimately, for the construction of

decision-relevant scenarios. In this way, the problem structuring approach of MAVT is used as a means to

structure and manage information processing. This enables reducing information overload of experts in-

volved in scenario construction and of decision makers, to whom the final results are presented.

To illustrate our approach of constructing decision-relevant scenarios exploiting the service-oriented ar-

chitecture provided by the DPIF, we refer to our running example. To evaluate the consequences of an al-

ternative for action (e.g. sheltering of the population in a given area), an important aspect is the number of

residents exposed to the (potentially) released chemical. To determine this number, several experts provid-

ing assessments for particular parts of the scenarios are linked by the DPIF, as shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6

Example part of the flow of information during the scenario construction phase.

A multitude of scenarios arise due to the uncertainty and complexity of the situation. Whenever an ex-

pert is uncertain about the value of an impact factor, he can pass on multiple possible values. Each of these

values must be consistent with the values provided by all previous experts in the chain. In this manner, the

consistency of scenarios can be assured (Comes/Hiete/Wijngaards/Schultmann 2010).

To rank alternatives, each constructed scenario is evaluated using techniques from MAVT (Keeney

1982). The individual results allow the in-depth analysis of the consequences of an alternative with respect

to each of the decision makers’ higher-level goals. Additionally, an aggregation step taking into account

the relative importance of the scenarios can be performed (Comes/Hiete/Schultmann 2010). In this man-

ner, a robust ranking of alternatives is established.

Copyright 2011 Shaker Verlag Aachen, ISBN: 978-3-8440-0451-9

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8. Semantic Logging and After Action Analysis Tool

All DPIF assistant agents described in section 3 produce log entries, which means that all events that hap-

pen in the distributed system are logged to support the analysis of all choices and actions of the different

actors (i.e. after action analysis). Such analysis is important for the estimation of the effectiveness and ef-

ficiency of the emergency management processes, therefore it addresses Challenge 4.

The log files that are generated are naturally very technical. The DPIF logs are written as unique entries

represented in JSON (Ilie/Scafes/Badica/Neidhart/Pinchuk 2010). Moreover, more than one log file is cre-

ated as the agents are distributed. In order to see the full picture, all the information in these logs must be

collected and organized, and to do so the logs are first converted to topic maps.

Topic Maps is a standard (ISO/IEC 13250:2003) for knowledge representation and information integra-

tion. It is designed to be used by humans as it provides varying (and controlled) levels of formality. In ad-

dition, the standard defines how different topic maps can be merged. These two features are very useful in

the DIADEM context, in which a Topic Maps ontology has been designed. This ontology describes the

DPIF agents, the services they offer, the messages sent between the agents as well as the negotiation steps

followed by the agents. The time at which different events occur has been also modelled, as constraints

over the associations between the topics.

The log files have to be converted to topic maps, in accordance with the designed ontology. This is

done by parsing the log files using Gson (Gson 2011) and converting them to topic maps using the Onto-

pia engine API (Ontopia 2011). The Ontopia engine also allows the merging of the created topic maps.

The created merged topic map contains the relevant information from the distributed log files of the DPIF

agents organized in a meaningful way.

In order to allow the users to conduct the after action analysis, a visual link analysis tool has been de-

veloped. The visual link analysis provides a user interface for the user to author queries in a visual man-

ner. The user can define, for example, two topics of type “service” and connect them with a line, thus as-

sociating them. This query, when run, produces the dependency graph of all the services defined in the

system. The visual link analysis tool also supports further navigation from the already created graph, tak-

ing advantage of the many associations between the topics, as shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7

Browsing from the Control Room agent to its offered Weather Report service.

Finally, the visual link analysis tool provides also the ability to filter the information shown by time.

Given that different associations between topics shown in the created topic map include time constraints,

the user can use the filter ability to learn what events followed what other events.

Copyright 2011 Shaker Verlag Aachen, ISBN: 978-3-8440-0451-9

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9. Evaluation Activities

The global results of the DIADEM project have been evaluated in a series of large-scale demonstration

and evaluation workshops (DIADEM Deliverables 2011a) involving external stakeholders, mostly from

industrial and governmental environmental management organizations. Evaluation focussed on how the

users perceived the DIADEM system regarding relevance and added value compared to current work prac-

tices as well as the system’s implementability and usability.

Regarding individual DIADEM solutions, several experimental evaluations have taken place. An exper-

imental investigation of the impact of negotiation protocol selection on negotiation outcome and commu-

nication complexity has been carried out (Badica/Scafes 2011). The performance of the DGDS component

has been evaluated in experiments using both e-nose data and human reports (de Oude/Pavlin/de Groot

2010), while the robustness of the DGDS has been evaluated using synthetic data (Pavlin/de Oude/Mignet

2011). Regarding human interaction in gas detection, an experiment (Kok/Winterboer/Cramer/Groen/

Evers 2010) investigated whether the DIADEM mobile application that informs inhabitants and requests

smell descriptions should adapt to the user’s affective state to optimize reliability of responses. A related

experiment (DIADEM Deliverables 2011b) investigated the effect of multi-modal odour cues on the per-

formance of humans in identifying smells. A further experiment (Cramer/Evers/van Slooten/Ghijsen/

Wielinga 2010) investigated whether social agent behaviour had positive effects on the willingness of citi-

zens to collaborate and act on instructions of an environmental monitoring system. The performance of the

GDM component has been also evaluated. The statistical data-driven gas distribution modelling approach-

es were first evaluated using simulated as well as real sensor data from small-scale experiments (Asadi/

Pashami/Loutfi/ Lilienthal 2011). To evaluate these approaches on simulated data, a gas dispersal simula-

tion package was first developed, integrating an OpenFOAM fluid flow simulation and a filament-based

gas propagation model (Pashami/Asadi/Lilienthal 2010). The developed algorithms were then used to in-

terpret large-scale data collected with gas sensors.

10. Conclusions

The emphasis in the DIADEM project was on the development of novel methods and tools supporting ef-

fective and efficient environmental management in industrial settings as well as large-scale disaster man-

agement. Development and research guided by real-world requirements ensured that relevant and current

challenges were tackled and appropriate solutions were developed. The complexity of the targeted prob-

lems required novel, theoretically and technically sound solutions. The research and development resulted

in multiple scientific and technical solutions in complementary areas such as gas distribution modelling,

robust fusion of heterogeneous information, self-configurable collaboration framework using negotiation,

human-machine interfaces for information acquisition and presentation, robust decision making to support

complex human decision making under uncertainty, and systematic information logging and after action

analysis of complex and distributed systems. Most of the research results were implemented in operational

demonstration systems, which facilitated user evaluation and provided a proof of concept. Moreover, a

considerable effort has been dedicated to evaluation which took different forms, from qualitative evalua-

tion through stakeholder workshops to quantitative experimentation with real and synthetic data.

The technical solutions contributed by the DIADEM project are not limited to the chosen use cases. In

fact, many of the DIADEM solutions are generic and can be used in different contexts and different appli-

cation domains. DPIF is a wrapper technology introducing interoperability solutions that facilitate compo-

sition of arbitrary services. This is relevant for large-scale modelling applications, for example climate

modelling. Moreover, the DPIF in combination with advanced negotiation techniques can be directly used

for the implementation of self-configurable collaboration systems in any crisis management application.

Currently, the DPIF is being adapted and evaluated in a knowledge management pilot project in an expert

Copyright 2011 Shaker Verlag Aachen, ISBN: 978-3-8440-0451-9

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community. SBR&MCDA addresses medium to long-term complex decision making under severe (i.e.,

non-quantifiable) uncertainty and requiring the consideration of many criteria simultaneously, such as

strategic planning and evaluation of policies in the context of environmental protection, health and indus-

trial planning, financial decision making and strategic emergency management. Semantic logging and Af-

ter Action Analysis are invaluable tools for the analysis of operations in many types of complex systems

(e.g., large-scale crisis management as well as industrial and financial processes), which involve massive

flows of heterogeneous types of information. In addition, they are promising tools for the debugging of

distributed, service-oriented systems, which is typically an extremely challenging task. The GDM compo-

nent is based on a generic approach for estimating distributions based on measurements that are interpret-

ed as samples generated by a random process. The developed algorithms can thus be used not only in the

context of crisis management and airborne gases but also in other relevant contexts such as the assessment

of ocean water salinity, considered an important ecological factor. ARGOS is an already established tool

which has been used in relevant domains, such as nuclear protection. In the DIADEM project, important

features were added to ARGOS which are not limited to the specific use cases. The technology in the

DGDS is also quite generic. The underlying distributed Bayesian networks are relevant for many complex

classification problems, as found in health (e.g., disease outbreaks), detection of pollution in water as well

as in security applications. The advanced human-machine interfaces and interaction principles used in the

DGDS can be directly applied to other domains where polling of the citizens is useful.

Acknowledgments

The work presented in this paper was partly funded by the European Union under the Information and

Communication Technologies (ICT) theme of the 7th Framework Program for R&D (DIADEM project,

ref. no: 224318).

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