ICU Course

Dr Fraser Cameron

The State of the Union

• Political Crisis due to failure to ratify constitutional treaty (France and NL)

• Budget fight ($100billion) 1.04% GDP

• Economy / which model? Anglo-Saxon, Nordic, Rhineland, New Member States

• Lisbon Agenda (to make EU most competitive economy by 2010)

• Enlargement – Turkey $64,000?

EU as a Global Actor

• Interaction between internal and external policies eg coal and steel, agriculture, environment, internal market

• Values eg democracy, human rights, death penalty, ICC, Kyoto

• Neighbourhood top priority

• EU/US > Friends or Rivals?

• EU and “effective multilateralism”

Development of CFSP

• European Political Cooperation

• 1992 Maastricht Treaty / CFSP

• 1997 Amsterdam Treaty (Solana as High Representative)

• 2001 Nice Treaty (Political and Security Committee, Military Committee)

• Joint Actions, Common Positions

The EU and the Balkans

• 1991 break up of Yugoslavia “the hour of Europe”

• 1995 Dayton / US settlement

• 1999 Kosovo / US bombing

• 2003 Thessalonika Road Map

• How many countries? Serbia? Kosovo? Montenegro? Croatia, Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia

Towards ESDP

• CFSP needs armed forces• Kosovo < St Malo Anglo/French accord• 1999 Helsinki Headline Goals• 60,000 troops ready in 30 days for 12

month peacekeeping deployment• Capabilities• European defence agency• EU/NATO relations

Enlargement of the EU

• 1973 UK, Denmark, Ireland

• 1984 Greece

• 1986 Spain and Portugal

• 1995 Sweden, Austria, Finland

• 2004 Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovakia, Czech republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Malta, Cyprus

Enlargement (2)

• Future candidates ; Macedonia, Turkey, Croatia, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland,

• Western Balkans (Albania, Serbia [Kosovo, Montenegro], Bosnia/Herzogivina

• Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan

• Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine

• Deepening v Widening

• Can EU cope with 40 members?

European Neighbourhood Policy

• Consequence of last enlargement

• Aimed at creating “ring of friends”

• East = Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Caucasus

• South = Mediterranean partners

• Action Plans ; involvement in EU policies

• Finance? Institutions?

The EU and the Middle East

• EU united behind UN resolutions after 1967 war

• More willing to see Palestinian view

• Close but difficult relationship with Israel

• Barcelona process 10th anniversary

• Association agreements

• Security issues (demography, radical Islam, environment, economic failure)

Transatlantic relations

• EU and US biggest trade partners• $one billion a day relationship• End of Cold War changed paradigm• Disputes on Balkans, Middle East, Iran,

Iraq, ICC, Kyoto• But still closest relationship• New Transatlantic Agenda (NTA) 1995• Bush very unpopular in Europe

EU/Asia

• EU trying to promote regional integration, ASEAN, SARCC, ASEM

• EU model not easily transferable

• Differences on sovereignty, human rights, eg Burma

• Fascination with China; huge growth in trade relations (but US suspicious eg arms embargo)

EU:Asia (2)

• EU/Japan Action Plan, what action?

• Japan perceived as totally in US camp

• EU/Korea, mainly trade based

• EU/India, growing fast, recognition of India as regional, maybe global actor

• ASEAN, East Asia Community, what future?

The EU and Global Governance

• EU stands for “effective multilateralism” but what does it mean?

• Strong support for UN but problem of UNSC, German ambitions for a seat (US only supporting Japan)

• High/level Panel, many useful ideas eg Peacebuilding Commission

• WTO / IMF / World Bank / G8< reforms?

EU and Development Aid

• EU largest donor in the world

• Main targets Africa and Asia

• Special responsibility as former colonial empires

• Many special relationships eg Belgium and the Congo, Portugal and Angola

• Good governance key issue

The EU and the UN

• EU/UN relations developing fast

• Crisis management main focus

• EU very supportive of Kofi Annan’s reform agenda and Millenium Summit goals

• But UNSC divisive issue

• Regional bodies in UN system?

Constitutional Treaty

• Provides for EU foreign minister and EU foreign service with EU missions

• Legal personality for Union

• Structured cooperation in defence

• Solidarity clause

• Permanent president of the Council

• More coherence, visibility, effectiveness

Member States and the CFSP

• CFSP/ESDP highly sensitive

• Unlikely to change to community method

• Many special ties, different histories, traditions, capabilities, interests

• But working through EU better than trying to go it alone, slow process

• Danger of a ‘directoire’ < but ad hoc groups eg on Iran acceptable

Conclusions

• CFSP/ESDP very new policy areas

• Hardly ten years old / political will slow to develop

• But Solana now widely regarded as ‘EU foreign policy chief’

• What ambitions for CFSP? Real global actor? Military capabilities? Able to look after own security?