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Identifying S&T and innovation priorities Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russiafor the sector of natural resources in Russia
Sergey ShashnovAnna Sokolova
National Research University ‘Higher School of Economics’
Russia
The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia
Russian Federation accumulates over one third of the world stock of natural gas, coal and iron ore, and about one tenth of oil stock
Russian water resources form 20% of the world water stock
Share of mining operations exceeds 20% from the total production output
Share of raw mineral complex production in total exports is almost 80%
Hydro power generation - 20%
Scale of Russian natural resources complex Scale of Russian natural resources complex and its place in the economyand its place in the economy
Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia
Around 40 million people live in unfavorable natural conditions, 1 million people live in
places with critical pollution level
Specific emission indicators exceed similar foreign indicators by several times
High specific water-holding capacity of NGP (exceeds level of foreign countries by 2-3
times)
High rate of water resources loss (10% of the total volume)
Low oil extraction factor (33%)
Climate changes and natural emergency situations increase
Problems and challenges Problems and challenges
Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia
4
National S&T Foresight: 2025
National S&T Foresight: 2030
Innovation priorities for the Russian complex of
natural resources
Recommendations
for Russian S&T and innovation
policy in the field of natural resources
General scheme of foresight projects to identify S&T&I priorities General scheme of foresight projects to identify S&T&I priorities for the sector of natural resources for the sector of natural resources
Identification of the most important and developed areas in
the long-run perspective
Evaluation of required resources
and possible innovation projects
for these areas
Identification of crucial activity areas for the governance system in the field
of natural resources
-> rational use of natural resources
-> rational use of natural resources
Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia
National S&T Foresight: 2025National S&T Foresight: 2025
Over 2000 experts from 40 regions
Different expert procedures (Delphi as a central method)
On the basis of National S&T priorities and Critical technologies: - 9 S&T priorities - 56 thematic areas
Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia
Rational use of natural resourcesRational use of natural resources
Importance for Russia Possible implementation timeframes Russia’s position vis-à-vis world leaders Support measures Contribution to economic growth and increased competitiveness, role in dealing with major social challenges
Main criteria for topics evaluation: Ultradeep drilling
technologies(up to 15 km)
Technologies for ecologically safe mining and oil
and gas extraction
Technologies for estimating
resources and forecasting
(lithosphere and biosphere)
Technologies for processing and
utilizing anthropogenic substances and
wastes
Technologies for environmental monitoring and
forecasting (atmosphere and
hydrosphere)
Technologies for risk and damage
containment after natural and
technogenous disasters
Thematic areas
56 Topics
Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia
Rational use of natural resources: the most important topicsRational use of natural resources: the most important topicsImportance index
Time of realization2014 2016 2019
Technologies of accelerated and effective restoration of disturbed acres,
landscapes and biodiversity
Technologies of environmentally safe recycling and disposal of
household and industrial waste
Geoinformation database on forest fires in Russia, which
enables to assess the number of fires and burnt areas in real-
time mode
Development of geophysical methods of oil and gas prospecting in
structurally complex environment
Technologies of high-efficient cleaning of polluted territories using plants and
biomaterials
2018
98
97
96
95
94
Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia
National S&T Foresight: 2030National S&T Foresight: 2030Rational use of natural resourcesRational use of natural resources
Prevention and liquidation of environmental pollution, monitoring and forecasting of the environment conditions
Technologies for processing and utilizing
anthropogenic substances and wastes
Prevention and liquidation of emergencies related to natural and technogene emergencies
Thematic areas
Technology groups
include the most important and
developed topics of S&T Foresight: 2025
Integrated more general areas on the basis of the areas of S&T Foresight:
2025
Main criteria for groups evaluation: Current level of Russian R&D Major results of innovation projects based on relevant R&D Required resources (personnel, funds, equipment) Market potential of products which can be developed on the basis of relevant R&D Feasibility of implementing major innovation projects in Russia
Diagnosing current state of
environment and dangerous anthropogenic
systems
Remote monitoring techniques based on space satellite systems
Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia
Rational use of natural resources: the most Rational use of natural resources: the most developeddeveloped groups groupsIndex of R&D level
Cumulative effect1.7 1.8 2
Technologies for rapid and effective recovery of defective soil,landscape and biodiversity
Remote monitoring techniques based on space
satellite systems
Diagnosing current state of environment and dangerous
anthropogenic systems
Technologies for early detection of conditions
contributing to emergence of extreme environmental
situations, natural or anthropogenic
Processes of selective
disintegration
1.9
67
62
57
52
1.61.5
Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia
Thematic area: Prevention and liquidation of environmental pollution, monitoring and forecasting of the
environment conditions
Sca
le o
f m
arke
ts
Feasibility of innovation projects
Perspective markets of large-scale demand
Perspective markets of small-scale demand
Evaluation of feasibility of innovation projects & scale of marketsEvaluation of feasibility of innovation projects & scale of markets
Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia
Major results of National S&T Foresight: 2030Major results of National S&T Foresight: 2030
List of markets and segments, where Russia can improve its
positions
Detailed description of chosen groups
Estimation of resources and risks
Technology roadmaps for the most perspective product groups
The most important innovation projects
The most important research projects
Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia
Innovation priorities for the Russian complex of Innovation priorities for the Russian complex of natural resourcesnatural resources
Water resources
Mineral resources
Environment
Information base Expert procedures
Analysis of global priorities
Analysis of socio- economic
objectives
Statistics
Analysis of problems
Surveys
Interviews
Workshops
SCOPE:
Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia
General project schemeGeneral project schemeInformation
baseExpert
procedures
Main problems and challenges in management system of Russian complex of
natural resources and its sectors
Innovation priorities for the Russian Innovation priorities for the Russian complex of natural resourcescomplex of natural resources
Suggestions on amendments in strategic documents of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Russian
Federation
…. …. ….Major tasks
Low efficiency of authority separation system at all levels of
water resources management
Need for gradual modernization and
harmonization of the existing system of rate fixing according to the
rates of the EU and WTO
Designing an effective system of scientific
support of measures aimed at biodiversity preservation and its
sustainable use
Development of risk management tools and assessment of decisions
efficiency
Creating and development of an
advisory system on using and conservation of land
resources by analogy with successful foreign
prototypes
Development of water and water-
retaining production market adjusted for
ecological safety criteria
Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia
General project scheme: exampleGeneral project scheme: exampleMain problems and challenges in management system of Russian
complex of natural resources and its sectors
Innovation priorities for the Russian Innovation priorities for the Russian complex of natural resourcescomplex of natural resources
Suggestions on amendments in strategic documents of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of
the Russian Federation
…. …. ….Major tasks
The problem: Absence of an effective administrative mechanism for elimination of critical volume of cumulative ecological damage
The problem: …..……………………….
The priority: Formation a complex administrative mechanism for elimination of critical volume of cumulative ecological damage
The task: Development of a legal mechanism of responsibility for cumulative ecological damage, order of its assessment and compensation procedures
Over 40
Over 100
It is suggested to make amendments in Ecological Doctrine of the Russian Federation (into key factors of Russian environment degradation, main principles of state ecological policy, list of strategic approaches of natural environment restoration, other sections), map of a project “ Designing new ecological life standards” (adding a new target code, changing of anticipated results), and corresponding amendments in Civil Code of the Russian Federation, part 1, 30.11.1994 № 51 federal law, part 2, 26.01.1996 № 14, Land Code of the Russian Federation, 25 October 2001 № 136, federal law “About environmental protection”,10 January 2002 №7
The task: …..………………….
Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia
Innovation prioritiesInnovation priorities for the Russian complex of natural resources: for the Russian complex of natural resources: example for area of example for area of ««industrial waste and cumulative ecological damage»
• сreation of mechanisms for elimination of cumulative ecological damage• improvement of law enforcement system and law enforcement practice• designing effective economy mechanisms for stimulating enterprises to decrease waste formation• development of effective intersectoral cooperation
Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia
SummarySummary
Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in RussiaIdentifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia
Thank you for your attention!