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IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SMART GRID, VOL. 4, NO. 2, JUNE 2013 1087 Reliability Modeling and Evaluation of Power Systems With Smart Monitoring Bamdad Falahati, Student Member, IEEE, Yong Fu, Member, IEEE, and Mirrasoul J. Mousavi, Senior Member, IEEE Abstract—Smart grid technologies leveraging advancements in sensors, communications, and computing offer new avenues for re- liability enhancements of complex power grids by increasing the up-times and reducing the down times. This paper discusses var- ious aspects of smart grid monitoring and proposes a mathemat- ical model to assess its impact on power grid reliability. Based on a multiple-state Markov chain model, the failure and repair rates of power components with and without monitoring provisions are de- termined and compared. The proposed formulation incorporates the failure rates of the monitoring systems themselves and the im- pact on system/component reliability. Index Terms—Markov chain, power system reliability, smart grid monitoring, substation automation. NOMENCLATURE Down state without monitoring Up state without monitoring Component availability without monitoring Failure rate without monitoring Repair rate without monitoring Down state created by monitoring degree Up state created by monitoring degree Probability of being in state Repair rate of the state Repair rate of the state Component availability with monitoring Number of new Up states with monitoring Number of new Dn states with monitoring Equivalent failure rate with monitoring Equivalent repair rate with monitoring Failure rate decrement Repair rate increment Availability of each degree Average availability for all degrees Manuscript received August 28, 2012; revised December 04, 2012; accepted January 03, 2013. Date of publication January 30, 2013; date of current version May 18, 2013. Paper no. TSG-00533-2012. B. Falahati and Y. Fu are with Mississippi State University, Department of Electrical Engineering, Starkville, MS 39759 USA (e-mail: bf229@msstate. edu, [email protected]). M. J. Mousavi is with ABB US Corporate Research Center, Raleigh, NC 27606 USA. (e-mail: [email protected]). Color versions of one or more of the gures in this paper are available online at http://ieeexplore.ieee.org. Digital Object Identier 10.1109/TSG.2013.2240023 I. INTRODUCTION S MART grid initiatives and grid modernization efforts leverage the latest advancements in digital communica- tions and information technologies, offering opportunities to enhance the power grid reliability, efciency, and resiliency. The traditional siloed monitoring and indication systems are being networked and enhanced to achieve a more reliable and timely monitoring of the grid. Such smart grid monitoring incorporates new ways to visualize power system status and health and foresee imminent failures [1]. Maintaining the reliable operation of the grid requires that the crucial components are monitored on a continuous basis and timely alarms are sent to grid operators. For instance, power transformers are in particular critical to this mission. Any minor failure, such as a uid leak or progressive internal insulation degradation in transformers may threaten the safe and reliable grid operation. The advanced monitoring and indication systems offer opportunities to anticipate, detect, and respond rapidly to sustained and/or impending failures resulting in a substantial re- duction of failure rates, repair times, maintenance costs, and risk of cascading blackouts [2]. One study in [3] reported that a cat- astrophic failure in a bushing rod of a high voltage transformer costs more than three million dollars, but, such a failure could be repaired easily for as little as sixteen thousand dollars if ad- dressed in a timely fashion. Another study in [4] specically examined the impact of the winding temperature indication on power transformers and concluded that it is necessary to know the winding temperature in order to operate the transformer at a nearly full load capacity. The failure of the temperature indi- cator or an incorrect indication may undesirably impact the reli- ability of the transformer, in particular during the peak loading periods. The monitoring device and system failures are nonetheless inevitable. Incorrect, incomplete, and/or invalid measurements and indications may eventually cause incorrect decision making leading to serious consequences [5]. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the reliability of the monitoring systems in the reliability evaluation of the power grid with smart monitoring. The power system with smart monitoring devices generally has multi-state operation modes. Thus, a multiple-state Markov chain model is proposed in this paper for evaluating the relia- bility of power system equipped with smart monitoring devices. Markov chain is best suited to model systems which mostly have more than two stationary states, and transitions occurred among them. In the study of power system reliability, Markov chain model has been widely used to simulate a multi-states element or system. Reference [6] applied the Markov chain to model impacts of weather changes on the reliability of power system. 1949-3053/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE

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Page 1: IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SMART GRID, VOL. 4, NO. 2, JUNE …

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SMART GRID, VOL. 4, NO. 2, JUNE 2013 1087

Reliability Modeling and Evaluation of PowerSystems With Smart Monitoring

Bamdad Falahati, Student Member, IEEE, Yong Fu, Member, IEEE, and Mirrasoul J. Mousavi, Senior Member, IEEE

Abstract—Smart grid technologies leveraging advancements insensors, communications, and computing offer new avenues for re-liability enhancements of complex power grids by increasing theup-times and reducing the down times. This paper discusses var-ious aspects of smart grid monitoring and proposes a mathemat-ical model to assess its impact on power grid reliability. Based on amultiple-state Markov chain model, the failure and repair rates ofpower components with and without monitoring provisions are de-termined and compared. The proposed formulation incorporatesthe failure rates of the monitoring systems themselves and the im-pact on system/component reliability.Index Terms—Markov chain, power system reliability, smart

grid monitoring, substation automation.

NOMENCLATURE

Down state without monitoring

Up state without monitoring

Component availability without monitoring

Failure rate without monitoring

Repair rate without monitoring

Down state created by monitoring degree

Up state created by monitoring degree

Probability of being in state

Repair rate of the state

Repair rate of the state

Component availability with monitoring

Number of new Up states with monitoring

Number of new Dn states with monitoring

Equivalent failure rate with monitoring

Equivalent repair rate with monitoring

Failure rate decrement

Repair rate increment

Availability of each degree

Average availability for all degrees

Manuscript received August 28, 2012; revised December 04, 2012; acceptedJanuary 03, 2013. Date of publication January 30, 2013; date of current versionMay 18, 2013. Paper no. TSG-00533-2012.B. Falahati and Y. Fu are with Mississippi State University, Department of

Electrical Engineering, Starkville, MS 39759 USA (e-mail: [email protected], [email protected]).M. J. Mousavi is with ABB US Corporate Research Center, Raleigh, NC

27606 USA. (e-mail: [email protected]).Color versions of one or more of the figures in this paper are available online

at http://ieeexplore.ieee.org.Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TSG.2013.2240023

I. INTRODUCTION

S MART grid initiatives and grid modernization effortsleverage the latest advancements in digital communica-

tions and information technologies, offering opportunities toenhance the power grid reliability, efficiency, and resiliency.The traditional siloed monitoring and indication systems arebeing networked and enhanced to achieve a more reliable andtimely monitoring of the grid. Such smart grid monitoringincorporates new ways to visualize power system status andhealth and foresee imminent failures [1].Maintaining the reliable operation of the grid requires that the

crucial components are monitored on a continuous basis andtimely alarms are sent to grid operators. For instance, powertransformers are in particular critical to this mission. Any minorfailure, such as a fluid leak or progressive internal insulationdegradation in transformers may threaten the safe and reliablegrid operation. The advancedmonitoring and indication systemsoffer opportunities to anticipate, detect, and respond rapidly tosustained and/or impending failures resulting in a substantial re-duction of failure rates, repair times, maintenance costs, and riskof cascading blackouts [2]. One study in [3] reported that a cat-astrophic failure in a bushing rod of a high voltage transformercosts more than three million dollars, but, such a failure couldbe repaired easily for as little as sixteen thousand dollars if ad-dressed in a timely fashion. Another study in [4] specificallyexamined the impact of the winding temperature indication onpower transformers and concluded that it is necessary to knowthe winding temperature in order to operate the transformer ata nearly full load capacity. The failure of the temperature indi-cator or an incorrect indication may undesirably impact the reli-ability of the transformer, in particular during the peak loadingperiods.The monitoring device and system failures are nonetheless

inevitable. Incorrect, incomplete, and/or invalid measurementsand indications may eventually cause incorrect decision makingleading to serious consequences [5]. Therefore, it is necessaryto incorporate the reliability of the monitoring systems in thereliability evaluation of the power grid with smart monitoring.The power system with smart monitoring devices generally

has multi-state operation modes. Thus, a multiple-state Markovchain model is proposed in this paper for evaluating the relia-bility of power system equipped with smart monitoring devices.Markov chain is best suited tomodel systemswhichmostly havemore than two stationary states, and transitions occurred amongthem. In the study of power system reliability, Markov chainmodel has been widely used to simulate a multi-states elementor system. Reference [6] applied the Markov chain to modelimpacts of weather changes on the reliability of power system.

1949-3053/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE

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When the weather changes from normal condition to stormyweather, the transition rates between operation and failed sit-uations change. Another study in [7] presents a model basedon Markov chain to estimate an annual energy generation ofa wind turbine. The model incorporates reliability data of thewind turbine, such as failure and repair rates, with the stochasticcharacteristics of wind speed. Reference [8] proposes a mod-ular and integrated methodology to schedule preventive main-tenance on individual components in substations by optimizingthe two objectives of overall cost and reliability of the substa-tion as a whole. A series of Markov models was proposed topredict the availability of individual components dynamicallyover the maintenance horizon. Reference [9] presents a modelfor evaluating small hydro power plants generation availability.The model combines the uncertainties of rivers inflows and op-eration of generation units. In this model, the river inflow ismodeled by a multiple states Markov chain and the generatorunit by a two statesMarkovmodel. In addition, [10] proposed anintegrated reliability and performance framework for grid-con-nected photovoltaic (PV) systems by using Markov model.This paper addresses the various aspects of reliability mod-

eling and evaluation in the context of smart grid monitoring. Thepaper contributions are as follows:• In the proposed multiple-state Markov chain model, theprevented and corrected states, and monitoring degree ofthe power equipment with smart monitoring devices aredefined.

• A complete formulation is presented to quantify anddemonstrate component reliability improvement whenmonitored.

• The impact of monitoring device failures is also incorpo-rated into the proposed reliability assessment model.

• Finally, a reduced model is proposed to facilitate practicalreliability evaluation.

The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section IIdescribes the concept and applications of smart grid monitoring.Section III proposes the reliability modeling formulation. Thecase studies are presented in Section IV. Finally, the conclusionsare provided in Section V.

II. SMART GRID MONITORING APPLICATIONS

Power system monitoring in general involves collecting andreporting various operational (e.g., RMS voltages and currents)and non-operational (e.g., sampled values) data to the networkcontrol center or station computer. The data may include Super-visory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) type measure-ments such as breaker statuses, current, voltage, power and fre-quency measurements and condition data of a component [11].Smart grid monitoring encompasses online visualization, datacollection and manipulation, and indication.

A. Online Visualization

An important aspect of smart grid monitoring is to provide aconsistent visualization of the grid conditions and health statusincluding system topology, states of critical equipment, busvoltages, and active/reactive powers through the lines [12].Effective online visualization enhances situational awarenessi.e., the ability to be aware of grid conditions at all times and

significantly reduces the operators workload allowing themto focus on tasks that require operator attention leading tobetter decisions in the least possible amount of time [5]. Onlinevisualization furthermore helps to abstract a large amount ofonline information [13].

B. Data Collection and Manipulation

Data collection and manipulation enables observability of thegrid. Data manipulation and querying about recorded data of-fers broad historical information about the power network.Man-agement and exploration of the recorded events and measure-ments provide useful information about the operation of thepower system, including the existing correlations among eventsin different times and places. Analytical and/or rule-based al-gorithms can further utilize this assortment of raw data to em-power the system operator to develop remedial strategies andtroubleshoot existing failures. Bar charts, trends, animated flow,contour maps, and pie charts are examples of available methodsfor demonstrating the results of data collection and manipula-tion [14].As an example, maintenance of circuit breakers and discon-

nect switches is typically scheduled based on the number ofopen and close operations. The ability to extract the numberof operations and impact of each operation can be providedfrom the data captured over months and years. This type ofdata-driven maintenance can replace or augment conventionalperiodic maintenance strategies, thereby increasing the relia-bility of the grid [2].

C. Indication

While the data collection aspects involve all of the gridevents, the indication tasks are only dedicated to a subset ofevents that help detect or anticipate faults. Based on the natureof the event, indications are categorized into physical andoperational indications. Physical indications are for a physicalfailure or problem in the power system using sensors installedinside or near the critical equipment. Ignoring a physicalindication may lead to a dreadful failure in that equipment.Operational indications are on the other hand for events thatrequire special attention during the operation. For example,tap-in-progress is an important operational indication for apower transformer. The indicator blinks while the tap changesin response to an automatic or manual command. During thetap-in-progress operation which usually lasts about 10–20seconds, the transformer and the power system experience atransient situation, and any other switching in the network,such as open/close breakers, may increase the instability of thepower network [15].

III. RELIABILITY MODELING OF SMART GRID MONITORING

In this section, a mathematical model is presented to study theimpact of smart grid monitoring on power system reliability.

A. Augmented Component Reliability Modeling

Smart grid monitoring impacts preventive and correctivemeasures to maintain grid reliability. Monitoring preventiveactions can prevent the grid from experiencing dreadful failuresby derating or de-energizing stressed power equipment in-time

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through a diverse array of predefined remedial actions. Deratinga component creates a new up (Up) state, and de-energizing itcreates a new down (Dn) state with a shorter repair time (or animproved repair rate). For instance:

• Operators perform rescheduling, reconfiguration, and/orload-shedding procedures to alleviate stress on a trans-former whose indicators warn of a problem creating a newUp state [4].

• Indicators continuously monitor critical apparatus for in-cipient failures or emergency situations and provide themost up-to-date condition information to the operators.Certain physical indications may lead the operator to re-move a piece of equipment from service temporarily cre-ating a new Dn state. In most cases, on-site maintenancereadies the equipment for use again.

Monitoring corrective actions allow operators to observe fail-ures more easily and quickly. Such actions significantly reducethe repair time, thereby increasing the repair rate, and create anew Dn state.

• As an application of online visualization, when a failure orfault de-energizes a part of the power network, operatorsare able to recognize faulty sections in time and thereforeminimize repair time and increase repair rates [16].

• Another example for online visualization is a fault clearingsequence, which includes identifying fault occurrences,initiating relays, transmitting relay blocking/trippingsignals in a communication scheme, and opening cor-responding circuit breakers, can be traced with greaterprecision. Such data provide information about the specifictype of fault occurred in the power system and also saveoperators a significant amount of time to perform remedialactions to clear the fault [17].

• Data collection and manipulation are applied to convey aclear view of the grid to the system operator, allowing abetter understanding of the grid status [5].

Fig. 1 illustrates how smart grid monitoring assists in en-hancing the reliability of an individual component by either in-creasing the repair rate or decreasing the failure rate . Threedistinct modes are recognized as below:

• A preventive action creates a prevented Up state with alower failure rate.

• A preventive action creates a prevented Dn state with ashorter repair time which means a higher repair rate.

• A corrective action creates a corrected Dn state with ashorter repair time which means a higher repair rate.

1) Monitoring Degree: Smart grid monitoring enhancesequipment maintenance where certain maintenance work isperformed in anticipation for a failure. Such work creates a newUp and Dn state corresponding to type of action taken. Thedegree with which the number of states is increased is termedthe monitoring degree. In other words, the monitoring degree isdefined as the total number of all new Up and Dn states createdby smart grid monitoring.2) Multiple-State Markov Chain Model: Without moni-

toring, a power apparatus is assumed to have two operationalstates: up and down. Thus, the monitoring degree is zero.

Fig. 1. Reliability enhancement of an individual power element by smart mon-itoring system.

Fig. 2. Markov chain for a power component (a) without and (b) with smartgrid monitoring.

Fig. 2(a) shows the Markov chain of the two-state reliabilitymodel. The component availability, , is equal to

(1)

Where and are the failure rate and repair rate of the powercomponent, respectively.A multiple-state Markov chain of a component with smart

monitoring is shown in Fig. 2(b). The in Fig. 2(a) is subdi-vided into – and - . Therefore, the monitoringdegree is . is assumed to be an unpredictable downstate when the monitoring system cannot distinguish the failureor help fix the faulty apparatus or section. to are newprevented and corrected down states, and to are thenew prevented up states whose failures are predicted, allowingoperators or other automatic operations to maintain power bytaking preventive actions.In order to calculate the availability of an individual compo-

nent, the following derivations are conducted. The repair rates– of to are greater than (or ) because, in

the case of preventive and corrective actions, the repair time ofnew states are less than the original repair time.

(2)

The failure rate of the apparatus without monitoring isequal to its total departing transition rates with monitoring (to ).

(3)

where is the failure rate of the state , which, in the Markovchain, is also called the departing transition rate.

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Given that the impact of unpredicted apparatus failures areequal to that of failures without monitoring, the repair rate of

is equal to the repair rate of the apparatus withoutmonitoring, ,

(4)

The balance equations for all nodes in the multiple-stateMarkov chain are listed in (5) and (6).

(5)

(6)

where is the repair rate of the state , which, in the Markovchain, is also called the arriving transition rate. andare the probabilities of the Up and Dn states, respectively.Equation (7) requires that the total probability of all states is

equal to one.

(7)

After substituting (5) and (6) in (7), is found as

(8)

According to (6) and (8), we have

(9)

Therefore, the total probability of all Up states equals

(10)

Equation (11) shows that the availability of an apparatuswith monitoring will increase as compared to the availability

without monitoring.

(11)

States that continue to interrupt the operation of the apparatusare lumped into the equivalent failure rate which is equalto

(12)

Similar to (1), the general equation for the availability of anequivalent two-state apparatus is

(13)

So, the equivalent repair rate is calculated as

(14)

In this paper, the failure rate decrement (FRD) is defined as

(15)

and the repair rate increment (RRI) is defined as

(16)

B. Impact of Monitoring Failure

The advantages associated with smart monitoring are achiev-able as long as the monitoring system itself is reliable. However,failures in the monitoring system are inevitable. For instance,• A failure of the indication device or an incorrect indicationmay have a significant impact on the life of a transformerand may affect its reliability, especially if it has to be op-erated under overloaded conditions [4].

• If the control center is not alerted in a timely manner re-garding a failure, preventing further damage to grid relia-bility will be difficult.

• If a group of events is not reported or archived in servers,data manipulation will lead to incorrect query results.

In order to account for these example scenarios, the impactof monitoring system failures should be incorporated in the re-liability modeling as discussed next.1) Integrating Monitoring System Failures Into the Multiple-

State Markov Chain: When the monitoring system fails, theapparatus failures cannot be observed and will be neglected.So, if the availability of the monitoring system equals , thefailure rate of the apparatus is

(17)

Note that the failures that could not be recognized by themon-itoring system remain on the state of and the correspondingfailure rate is calculated as

(18)

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It is noted that is greater than because some failurescan not be detected due to the failure of the monitoring system.The Markov chain of the apparatus considering the failure ofthe monitoring system is similar to that of Fig. 2. The only dif-ference is in the for the failure/arrival rate, instead of . Ac-cordingly, (10) and (12) are respectively updated as

(19)

(20)

2) Reduced Component Reliability Model: If the probabilityof experiencing monitoring failures in different monitoring de-grees is assumed to be equal to an average value of , (19)and (20) are changed into

(21)

(22)

The proposed (21) is based on the multiple-state Markovchain model in Fig. 2(b). It demonstrates the overall reliabilityimprovement of an apparatus when the reliability of the mon-itoring system is taken into account. Notice that the practicaldrawback of this equation is that it relies on certain detailedinformation which is not always available or measurable. Forexample, it is difficult to determine the monitoring degree i.e.,the number of Up and/or Dn states, the percentage of failureseliminated due to the integration of an individual monitoringdevice, and repair times required to return to the primary state.Fortunately, it is possible to obtain the failure and repair ratesof an apparatus without and with monitoring using statisticaltechniques. To convert the theoretical model to a practical one,

it is desired to reduce (21) by representing it only with fouravailable parameters .Since , (21) is rewritten as

(23)

To further reduce (23), the following lemma is applied.Lemma: If and are non-negative variables, and bothand are less than , the difference between and

is less than .Proof: Since , the difference between

and is

(24)

The first term in (23) can be written as whereand

.Set .

According to (3),

(25)

Also, in general, and , we getand . Thus,

(26)

Because both and are less than , the Lemma can beused to approximate the first term in (23) as

(27)

The corresponding error is less than

(28)

Similarly, for the second term in (23), we de-fine

and

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.And, we get

(29)

Because and, we can

use the Lemma and (10) and (13) to approximate the secondterm of (23) into

The corresponding error is

(30)

Notice that is considerably smaller than , (similarly,is considerably smaller than ), the approximation errors(28) and (30) are negligible.According to the above discussion, (23) is approximated by

(31)

Since , then

(32)

where is defined as

(33)

Similarly, as is considerably smaller than , and is con-siderably smaller than , the in (33) is negligible. There-fore, the availability of the power apparatus considering thefailure of the monitoring system can be further reduced to

(34)

which means that the availability of the power apparatusconsidering the failure of the monitoring system can beapproximately represented by conditional probability fortwo independent components [18]. From (34), if the mon-itoring system was completely available , then

; otherwise, if the mon-itoring system is totally unavailable , the

, which is equal to the availabilityof the apparatus without any monitoring device. In addition,(34) exhibits a linear relationship between the availability ofthe power apparatus and that of the monitoring system

.

IV. CASE STUDIES

This section investigates reliability of a power substation withintegrated smart monitoring devices. In order to calculate andcompare the reliability of this substation with and without mon-itoring, a well-known model which minimizes the load shed-ding while considering network constraints is used. Both theLoss-of-Load-Expectation (LOLE) and Expected-Energy-Not-Served (EENS) are measured.Fig. 3 shows the layout of the 400/63 kV substation with a

breaker-and-a-half configuration, in which three breakers arededicated to two adjacent 400 kV lines. At the 63 kV level,for each outgoing feeder, one breaker is considered. Table Idescribes the elements of the substation. Protection, control,and monitoring devices are installed in this substation, and allmeasurements, events and disturbances are transferred to baycontrol units and bay protection units which then transmit allcollected data through the digital communication network toservers S1 and S2. The communication network is a star-wiredand ring topology, in which a backbone-loop connects allswitches.It is assumed that only breakers and transformers have non-

zero failure rates. For both transformers and circuit breakers,monitoring devices yield two considerable outcomes including1) Detecting imminent faults before catastrophic failures andlong-term outages 2) Migrating from periodic maintenance tocondition-based maintenance.

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Fig. 3. High voltage substation layout equipped with digital instruments.

TABLE IELEMENTS OF THE SUBSTATION

A. Transformer Reliability Data and Assumptions

Power transformers are expensive pieces of equipment inpower substations subject to component failures. Table II liststhe failure distribution in different parts of a power trans-former. In this case study, it is assumed that the health statusof On-Load-Tap-Changer (OLTC), oil and windings are beingmonitored. OLTCs have the highest failure rates dominatedby faults of a mechanical nature (springs, bearings, shafts,drive mechanisms), followed by electrical faults, such ascoking of contact, burning of transition resistors, and insulationproblems [20]. Components of an OLTC monitoring systeminclude torque measurement and assessment of the motordrive, switching supervision, temperature measurement of thediverter switch oil, and a contact wear model in combinationwith measurement of load current. Several systems for OLTC

TABLE IITYPICAL FAILURE DISTRIBUTION FOR SUBSTATION

TRANSFORMERS WITH OLTCS [19]

TABLE IIIFAILURE AND REPAIR RATES FOR TRANSFORMER

Fig. 4. Markov chain model for (a) substation transformer (b) circuit breaker.

TABLE IVFAILURE RATES AND REPAIR RATES FOR CIRCUIT BREAKERS

online monitoring are currently available [2]. The other dom-inant failures are collected on windings and cooling oil. Themaximum loading of a transformer is restricted by the operatingtemperature. If the transformer is exposed to higher than normaltemperatures, the insulation life will be shortened [21].Fig. 4 shows a Markov model with two monitoring degrees.

The first degree is related to the failure of OLTC, andthe second one is related to overheating caused primarilyby an overload; thus, it can be controlled by decreasing theload. Table IV lists the transition rates among various states ofFig. 4(a). The total failure rate is arbitrarily assumed to be 0.1occ/yr, and , and are assumed based on the failure per-centage listed in Table II. For the forced outage , 5 daysof maintenance is optimistically considered, while 12 hours ofmaintenance is considered for the prevented outage andderated mode .

B. Circuit Breaker Reliability Data and Assumptions

Circuit breakers require monitoring to ensure a reliable oper-ation. Reference [22] reported that the SF6 circuit breaker has anaverage failure rate of 0.0542 occ/yr. After implementing phys-ical and condition monitoring functions, about 87.6% of failurescan be predicted. A Markov chain with one monitoring degreeis proposed in Fig. 4(b). Table IV lists the corresponding tran-sition rates. is assumed as the total failure rate, is the part

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TABLE VLOLE AND EENS OF THE SUBSTATION

which cannot be recognized by the monitoring system, andis the remaining part that continues to cause forced outages.

C. Case Studies

Two cases are introduced to demonstrate the application ofthe proposed reliability modeling.Case 1: Substation reliability improvement by monitoring

devices:In this case, the failures associated with the monitoring de-

vices are neglected. Based on (8) and (9), the probabilities ofthe transformers being in Up states are calculated as

Therefore, the total probability of all Up states equals

The equivalent failure and repair rates with monitoring are cal-culated as

Thus, the FRD and RRI are found as

Likewise, for circuit breakers, and are equal to 0.123 and0.57, respectively. The LOLE and EENSwith and without mon-itoring are given in Table V. The results indicate that the moni-toring system decreases the LOLE and EENS of the substationby about 59% and 53%, respectively.Case 2: Impact of the Monitoring System Failure on Substa-

tion Reliability Improvement:To evaluate this impact, the availability of the moni-

toring devices is gradually varied from zero to one and the re-liability of the substation is calculated. Fig. 5 shows that theEENS and LOLE decrease as the availability of the monitoringdevices increases.In order to assess the accuracy of the reduced expression for

overall reliability improvement in (21), the reliability indicesLOLE and EENS were calculated from which the approxima-tion error given in Fig. 6 were obtained. The figure illustratesthat as the availability of the monitoring devices gradually in-creases from zero to one, the approximation error graduallyincreases peaking at 0.5 and falling off afterwards. Note thatthe peak approximation error (0.15%) is still acceptable when

Fig. 5. EENS and LOLE v.s. the availability of monitoring devices.

Fig. 6. Approximation error v.s. the availability of monitoring devices.

. Therefore, it is established that (34) is an acceptableapproximation for (21).

V. CONCLUSION

The proliferation of low-cost sensors and instrumentationthroughout the power systems as well as adjacent technologyadvancements provide new opportunities for advanced smartgrid monitoring.In this paper, certain promising aspects of smart grid moni-

toring were introduced. A multiple-state Markov chain modelwas proposed to model inclusion of smart monitoring devicesin the power system reliability. The proposed model quanti-fies power component reliability improvement when monitored.The impact of monitoring device failures is taken into accountin the proposed reliability assessment model. To better fit thepractical applications, a simplified reliability evaluation modelwas also presented in the paper.The modeling and advantages of smart grid monitoring for

reliability enhancement were demonstrated through a few casestudies applied to a power substation. The proposed model canbe applied for trade-off studies comparing the monitoring costswith respect to reliability enhancements. Moreover, the pro-posedmodel can be utilized in an optimization framework to de-termine the optimum monitoring points considering reliabilityand cost constraints.

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[4] A. Bourgault, “Sturdy but sensitive to heat: The impact of a windingtemperature on power transformer reliability,”Power and EnergyMag-azine, IEEE, vol. 3, no. 5, pp. 42–47, Sept.–Oct. 2005.

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Bamdad Falahati (S’08) received the B.S. and M.S. degrees in electrical en-gineering from Sharif University of Technology in 1999 and 2008 respectively.He is currently with Mississippi State University pursuing his Ph.D. degree inelectrical engineering. From 2004 to 2008, Bamdad was with Moshanir Co. asan R&DEngineer. His research interests include substation automation systems,power systems reliability, and distribution grid management.

Yong Fu (M’05) received his B.S. and M.S. degrees in electrical engineeringfrom Shanghai Jiaotong University, China, in 1997 and 2002, respectively, andhis Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering from the Illinois Institute of Tech-nology, USA, in 2006. Presently, he is an assistant professor in the Departmentof Electrical and Computer Engineering at Mississippi State University. His re-search interests include power system optimization and economics, and criticalinfrastructure interdependency.

Mirrasoul J. Mousavi (SM’12) is a Principal Scientist Engineer with ABB USCorporate Research Center in Raleigh, NC. He received his Ph.D. degree inelectrical engineering from Texas A&M University. He was a researcher in thePower System Automation Laboratory and a graduate lecturer at Texas A&MUniversity prior to joining ABB. From 1999 to 2001, he was with Niroo Re-search Institute (NRI) as an R&D Engineer. Dr. Mousavi is a senior member ofIEEE, IEEE Power and Energy Society (PES), and IEEE Dielectrics and Elec-trical Insulation Society (DEIS). His current professional interests are relatedto power system automation, data analytics, and power system modeling andsimulation.