IER

Universität Stuttgart

Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung

Multi-Pollutant Multi-Effect Modeling of European Air Pollution Control Strategies - an Integrated Approach

The MERLIN team:

Extension in the frame of the EC call to include partners from NAS: • Energy Research Center (ERC) of Ostrava Technical University (Ostrava, Czech Republic)

• National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (Sofia, Bulgaria)

• University of Ploiesti (Ploiesti, Romania)

• IER University of Stuttgart (Co-ordinator) [GER]

• Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Laboratory for Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering (AUT/LHTEE) [GR]

• University College London (UCL) [UK]

• Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI) [NO]

• ECOFYS Energy and Environment [NL]

• Institute for Ecology of Industrial Areas (IETU) [POL]

IER

Universität Stuttgart

Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung

Objectives

Development and application of methodologies and toolsfor an integrated assessment of European air pollution control strategies

• multi-pollutant, multi-effect assessment

• cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis

• inclusion of non-technical measures

• macroeconomic effects and distributional burdens

of air pollution control

• inclusion of accession countries

IER

Universität Stuttgart

Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung

Acidification

Eutrophication

TroposphericOzone

Global Warming

primary & secondary Aerosols

Urban Air Quality

NOx

SO2

NMVOCCO

CO2 CH4NH3

N2O

Particulate Matter

(PM2.5 / PM10)

Multi-Pollutant Multi-Effect Analysis

IER

Universität Stuttgart

Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

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MERLIN Schedule

IER

Universität Stuttgart

Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung

IIASA- DNMI contract MERLIN project

Funding Body DG Environment DG Research

Time frame 2001- 2003 2001- 2003

Pollutants SO2, NOx, NH3, VOC, CO, PM SO2, NOx, NH3, VOC, CO, PM, CO2, CH4, N2O, HM

Effects Health, acidification, eutrophication, crops and forests

Health, acidification, eutrophication, crops and forests, material damage

Years 2000- 2020 2000- 2020

Emissions IIASA- EMEP/ CORINAIR EMEP/ CORINAIR

Atmospheric transport

Regional model : EMEP/ MSC- W Urban model: JRC- EI (TAPOM) Inter- comparison study

Regional model: EMEP/ MSC- W (extended to HM for MERLIN) Urban model: AUT (OFIS and EZM)

Transfer matrices country -to- grid sector- to -grid

Optimization RAINS OMEGA- 2

Cost effectiveness YES, country cost curves YES, individual sectors

Macroeconomic effects NO YES

Benefit assessment NO YES, ECOSENSE

Comparison Between MERLIN and the IIASA-DNMI Contract

IER

Universität Stuttgart

Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung

MERLIN Scenarios

2000 Base Case 2010 Business-as-usual(BAU)

Optimised Scenarios (2005 to 2020)

+ 2020 BAUEMEP 2000 Emissions

(country totals & sectoral)

OR:

EMEP 1999 Emissions

(country totals, sectoral adaption according to GENEMIS Scenarios)

EMEP 2010 Emission Projections

(according to countries‘ submission)

AND harmonisation/crosscheck with:

• official energy projections

• implementation of policies in place and in pipeline

• sectoral targets

OMEGA II optimisation runs (annual)

AND exogeneous changes in

• technology of stock

• sectoral activity rates

• ...

i.e. 2 runs for each year (2005, ... 2010, ... 2020) in the following way:

IER

Universität Stuttgart

Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung

Calculate the resulting emissions for each country

Calculate the resulting emissions for each country

Crossbreed and mutate the surviving strategies

Crossbreed and mutate the surviving strategies

Remove strategies with worstperformance

Remove strategies with worstperformance Evaluate resultsEvaluate results

Calculate concentration changes on a 50 * 50 km grid

Calculate concentration changes on a 50 * 50 km grid

Generate the first set of solutions at random

Generate the first set of solutions at random

Stock activity database

Source receptorMatrices (EMEP)

End optimisation, if targets areachieved.

MERLIN Optimisation Approach (Evolutionary Algorithm)

IER

Universität Stuttgart

Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung

MERLIN Networking

MERLIN maintains close links to ongoing activities, such as the

• UNECE Task Force Emission Inventories and Projection (TFEIP),

• UNECE Task Force Integrated Assessment Modelling (TFIAM),

and the recently established

• UNECE Expert Group on Techno-Economic Issues (EGTEI)

in order to make best efforts to harmonise work and take into account best available data sources.