K S Rajan

Institute of Industrial Science,

University of Tokyo

IGBP-II LAND Research Program

LAND SC-TT MemberScientific Officer, LUCC Focus 2 Office

Current Structure of IGBP

New Structure of IGBP (2003~ )

GCTELUCC

New Joint Projects

START

Objective of the LAND Project:

To identify changes in the human-environment system and critical thresholds of vulnerability at local, regional and global scales of the system.

Fundamental Principles for LAND research

First, integrating for Transition to sustainability‘functionalities’ or characteristics of the Earth System

• feedbacks (processes which amplify or dampen aspects of the dynamics of the planetary life-support system),

• teleconnections (linkages between processes across space), • switch and choke points on the earth’s surface (control

points).

Second, Integrative with other sciences, as possibleThird, a fruitful platform of investigations - exploration of pathways (or trajectories) of land change

Major Concepts to consider

Ecosystems as life-support systems Pathways of change (trajectory analysis)People and ecosystems at risk (vulnerability )Methodological issues

Coupled (socio-economic and biophysical) models Linked, geo-referenced and long-term databases of socio-economic and biophysical variables Comparative regional assessments:

THE LAND ProjectLand-Centric integrative research programmeGuiding Questions of the Research Agenda are:

1. What are the dynamics and drivers of variability and change in human-environment systems?

2. How is the provision of environmental goods and services affected by changes in human-environment systems?

3. What are the characteristics and dynamics of vulnerability in human-environment systems?

Focal Research Themes

Agents, Drivers And Processes Of Terrestrial Human Environmental Change Ecosystem Goods And Services Vulnerability Of Terrestrial Human Environment Systems To Global Change

Research Questions (1)How do economic growth, globalization, governance, and other socio-economic processes interact to drive changes in land use and the functioning of the land system? How does the changing spatial distribution of land use, urbanization, changing populations, and settlement patterns to drive changes in the land system, and in land-atmosphere, land-ocean exchanges?How do management of land systems and disturbances drive changes in the land system, and its interaction with the atmosphere and oceans?

Research Questions (2)How does the legacy of historical management and disturbance, drive changes in the land system, and its interactions with the atmosphere and oceans now and in the future?How do environmental changes and human activities drive changes in biodiversity and how do these effects feed forward to cause changes in ecosystem functioning and properties?How does the changing physical and chemical atmosphere interact with the land to drive changes in land systems, land-atmosphere and land ocean exchanges?

Focus on Integrated Research Activities:

Agriculture impacts and feedbacks• An integrative systems analysis• Land scarcity and degradation• Impacts of the inputs and flow

 MEGA-BASINS: How do biophysical and human-decision interactions control vulnerability of mega-basins?

• Water Resources – Availability, Development and Management

• Water-Food-Economic Production System Interactions• Upstream-Downstream Links (Material Flows)

Agricultural Land Use Modeling and

Irrigation Demands

Spatial-EPIC Overall Framework

Temperature

RadiationPrecipitatio

n

Tillage

Layered Soil Pedon

Percolation

RunoffSediment

Chemicals-Dissolved-Adsorbed

WindEvapotransipration

Physical Components of the Model

Using Crop Models and GIS to Study the Global Irrigation Water Requirements

Modelling for Crop Growth

EPIC

EPIC Model EPIC ParametersSimulation

IE

Logit Model

Land use pattern

and irrigation water use

Combination for Main Crops

Estimate of

planting and

harvest date

Sample data of Land use and choices

RS, GPS and other

Investigated data

Internationalmarket/trade

model

Data handling(Interpolating, analysis)

Export of grid data

Maps(Climate,Soil, Terrain) and socio-economic data (Population, income, …)

GIS

Creating of spatial database

Flowchart of GIS-EPIC

Using Crop Models and GIS to Study the Global Irrigation Water Requirements

Estimation of Land Productivity

Rice Yields(T/HA)

Maize Yields

(T/HA)

Using Crop Models and GIS to Study the Global Irrigation Water Requirements

Comparing the wheat crop yields simulated by EPIC with FAO statistic data

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Simulated wheat yield in 2000 Statistic wheat yield in 2000

T/HA

Comparing the rice crop yields simulated by EPIC with FAO statistic data

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T/HA

Comparing the maize crop yields simulated by EPIC with FAO statistic data

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Comparing the soybean crop yields simulated by EPIC with FAO statistic data

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T/HA

Estimation of Land Productivity

Spatial-EPIC Results for India - RiceFig. RICE Validation

R2 = 0.2123

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Reported District Average

Sim

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tric

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vera

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Linear (1990)

Fig. State Wise Comaprision of Rice Crop Yiled (t/ha)

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hmir

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Impact of Climate Change Scenario over RICE Crop

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20

% increase/decrease in yield than of present condition

+2Deg +2Deg+25%rain -2Deg-25%rain -25%Rain

Impact of Climate Change Scenario over RICE Crop

Source: Fukui, 1993

An Example of the INTERACTIONS at the LOCAL Scale

Earth (Environment ) Resource System

(Land/ Water, Ecosystem)

Agricultural Land Use(Crop Choice)

Urban Land Use

Pastures/Grassland

Other Land uses

Farmer

Land Owner

Micro-sphere of Decision Making

Market Dynamics Cumulative Changesin Environment

Changes in Life Style

Macro-sphere of Decision Making

Policy Directions Migrations

Short termLong Term

Water Supply

Environment / Resource System

MICROSub-Models

SPATIAL URBAN EXPANSION MODEL

BIO-PHYSICAL CROP MODEL

AGRO-ECONOMIC Sub-Model

Behavioral Models

Land UserLand Use Conversion - within Agriculture

MigrationAgent Decision Sub-Model

Model Structure of AGENT-LUC

PopulationPrice Supply

Regulations

National Scenario Crop Demand Estimation MACROSub-Model

International Market

Examples of the Micro-Simulation Model Results [1]

Legend

Income Map of Nan Province

Urban Centre

No. of Households in Each Grid : 60LU: Paddy(4); Maize(1,6,7,8); Paddy+Maize(rest)

Examples of the Micro-Simulation Model Results [2]

Income Graph (Around Urban Center)

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in B

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Revenue Gen_Cost On_Farm_Inc Off_Farm_Inc Gross_Inc

No. of Households in Each Grid : 83(1,2); 117(rest)LU: Paddy(all grid points)

Examples of the Micro-Simulation Model Results [3]

Income Graph (Far from Urban Center)

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Revenue Gen_Cost On_Farm_Inc Off_Farm_Inc Gross_Inc

Fixed CostVariable Cost - Land Based - Yield Based

USGS Land cover map

Web-DSS Project

Define discharge observation point

Web-DSS Project

@irri.raw0:other, 1:unirrigated2: irrigated 3 outside

Scenario-1(no change)

Scenario2All agricultural lands changeto irrigated lands.

Scenario3All lands changeto irrigated lands.

Web-DSS Project

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Monthly discharge at point C

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x 10.000 m3

Web-DSS Project

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Monthly discharge at point A

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Sponsored by START Will cover 3 Sub-regions

South Asia South East Asia East Asia

MAIRS - Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Studies

Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Studies

1. Emissions/Energy/industrial transformations – 2. Climate-related Disasters and Hazards

– floods, droughts, storms, fires, GLOFs

3. Water (fresh and salt), catchments and coasts 4. Food, Fiber 5. Human health 6. Biodiversity and ecosystem change + Ecosystem services

Cross-Cutting Themes : Land Use; Monsoon climate system Resilience;

Adaptive capacity; Ecosystem services

Water-Food Theme

1. How will changes in land-use and cover, atmospheric emissions, and ocean productivity in the Asian Monsoon region interact with the global hydrological cycle?

2. What will be the consequences of changes in land-use, and modification of rivers for ground water, riverine, coastal and marine environments?

3. Will these changes amplify vulnerability to (the natural and man-made disasters like) floods and droughts

–Food Production Systems

Vulnerability Theme

How will changes in the AM, especially the frequency and intensity of extreme event challenges human responses?

How do rapid economic and social changes influence vulnerability to hazards?

How many changes in frequency/severity of biological invasions, pests, weeds and diseases affect human well-being?

How can human-decision making be improved to reduce disasters under both current and future environmental conditions?

Thank You !!