II. Medium-sized and SMEs 7)

- 35 - (II. Medium-sized and SMEs)

<II. Medium-sized and SMEs>7)

[Table 2-1-1] Transition of Japan’s economic growth rate forecasts (all industries basis)

（％）

Forecast for thenext fiscal year

Forecast for thenext 3 years


Forecast for thenext fiscal year



FY 2016 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.0

2017 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0

2018 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1

Survey year

Nominal economic growth rate Real economic growth rate

[Fig. 2-1-1] Real growth rate forecasts of industry demand by industry

compared to the previous year’s results (next fiscal year)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

All i

ndus

tries

Man

ufac

turin

g

Mate

rial-t

ype

Proc

essin

g-ty

pe

Othe

r

Non-

man

ufac

turin

g

FY2017 surveyFY2018 survey

(%)

1 Business outlook and demand forecast

Note) With regard to the “forecast” for each fiscal year, for example, the “forecast for the next fiscal year” in the FY2018survey refers to the forecast for FY2019; the “forecast for the next 3 years” refers to the forecast for FY2019 to FY2021; and the “forecast for the next 5 years” refers to the forecast for FY2019 to FY2023 (fiscal year average).

7) Medium-sized and SMEs with a capital of 0.1 to 1 billion yen (not incl.) among enterprises all over Japan (excl. enterprises covered in I. Listed Companies) (hereinafter “Medium-sized and SMEs.”) The survey of Medium-sized and SMEs started in FY2016.


[Fig. 2-1-2] Real growth rate forecasts of industry demand by sector

compared to the previous year’s results (next fiscal year)

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

All

indu

strie

s

Insu

ranc

eEl

ectri

c A

pplia

nces

Prec

isio

n In

stru

men

tsIn

form

atio

n &

Com

mun

icat

ion

Rea

l Est

ate

Con

stru

ctio

nA

ir T

rans

porta

tion

Non

ferr

ous M

etal

sO

il &

Coa

l Pro

duct

sO

ther

Fin

anci

ng B

usin

esse

sIr

on &

Ste

elM

achi

nery

Che

mic

als

Elec

tric

Pow

er &

Gas

Serv

ices

Secu

ritie

s &

Com

mod

ity F

utur

esW

areh

ousi

ng &

Har

bor T

rans

porta

tion

Serv

ices

Rub

ber P

rodu

cts

Tran

spor

tatio

n Eq

uipm

ent

Min

ing

Who

lesa

le T

rade

Met

al P

rodu

cts

Mar

ine

Tran

spor

tatio

nPh

arm

aceu

tical

Land

Tra

nspo

rtatio

nFo

ods

Gla

ss &

Cer

amic

s Pr

oduc

tsPu

lp &

Pap

erFi

sher

y, A

gric

ultu

re &

For

estr

yTe

xtile

s & A

ppar

els

Ret

ail T

rade

Oth

er P

rodu

cts

FY2017 survey FY2018 survey(%)

Note) Sectors include only those with 5 or more responding companies in the FY2017 and FY2018 survey.


[Fig. 2-2-1]Forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year and the break-even yen-dollar rate by industry

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

All

indu

strie

s

Man

ufac

turin

g

Mat

eria

l-typ

e

Proc

essin

g-ty

pe

Oth

er

Non

-man

ufac

turin

g

Forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year

Break-even yen-dollar rate(yen/dollar)

Yen-dollar rate in the month immediately before the survey (Dec.2018) : 112.5 yen/dollar

2 Exchange rates

Note 1) “Forecast yen-dollar rate” is the average of the class values, while “break-even yen-dollar rate” is the average of the actual reported numbers.

Note 2) Calculation of “break-even yen-dollar rate” includes only enterprises that conduct exports.


[Fig. 2-2-2] Break-even yen-dollar rate by sector

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Phar

mac

eutic

al

Ret

ail T

rade

Con

stru

ctio

n

Elec

tric

App

lianc

es

Che

mic

als

Iron

& S

teel

Non

ferr

ous M

etal

s

Met

al P

rodu

cts

Tran

spor

tatio

n Eq

uipm

ent

Prec

isio

n In

stru

men

ts

Rub

ber P

rodu

cts

Info

rmat

ion

& C

omm

unic

atio

n

Food

s

Mac

hine

ry

Serv

ices

Gla

ss &

Cer

amic

s Pr

oduc

ts

Pulp

& P

aper

Mar

ine

Tran

spor

tatio

n

Who

lesa

le T

rade

Oth

er P

rodu

cts

Text

iles &

App

arel

s

Secu

ritie

s &

Com

mod

ity F

utur

es

Rea

l Est

ate

Oth

er F

inan

cing

Bus

ines

ses

War

ehou

sing

& H

arbo

r Tra

nspo

rtatio

n Se

rvic

es

Land

Tra

nspo

rtatio

n

Elec

tric

Pow

er &

Gas

All industries average : 106.9 yen/dollar(yen/dollar)

Weaker yen than averageStronger yen than average

[Table 2-2-1] Transition of the forecast yen-dollar rate after 1 year and the break-even yen-dollar rate

(all industries basis) (yen/dollar)

Forecast yen-dollar rateafter 1 year

– Break-even yen-dollar rate

Yen-dollar rate for the monthimmediately before the survey– Break-even yen-dollar rate

FY 2016 113.1 105.6 116.0 7.5 10.4 2017 113.9 106.4 113.0 7.5 6.6 2018 111.7 106.9 112.5 4.8 5.5

Survey yearForecast yen-dollar

rate after 1 yearBreak-even yen-

dollar rate

Yen-dollar rate inthe month

immediatelybefore the survey

Difference

Note 1) Calculation of “break-even yen-dollar rate” includes only enterprises that conduct exports (average of reported numbers).

Note 2) Only sectors with 5 or more responding enterprises are included.

Note 1) “Forecast yen-dollar rate” is the average of the class values, while “break-even yen-dollar rate” is the average of the actual reported numbers.

Note 2) Calculation of “break-even yen-dollar rate” includes only companies that conduct exports. Note 3) “Yen-dollar rate in the month immediately before the survey” refers to figures in December.


[Table 2-3-1] Forecast rates of changes in average purchase and sales prices and the

change in the terms of trade after 1 year by industry

（％、％points）

FY2018survey

FY2017survey

FY2018survey

FY2017survey

FY2018survey

FY2017survey

3.3 3.2 1.8 1.6 -1.5 -1.6

3.6 3.5 1.7 1.6 -1.9 -2.0

Material-type 3.7 3.9 2.4 2.2 -1.3 -1.7

Processing-type 3.2 2.8 0.9 0.8 -2.3 -2.0

Other 3.8 3.7 1.8 1.6 -2.0 -2.2

3.0 2.8 1.9 1.7 -1.2 -1.1

Terms of tradeAverage purchase price Average sales price

All industries

Indu

stry

Manufacturing

Non-manufacturing

3 Prices

Note 1) Terms of Trade = Rate of change in average sales price – rate of change in average purchase price Note 2) Terms of trade are derived from the rate of change of the average sales price and the rate of change of the average

purchase price (Refer to FY2018 Statistical Tables <II. Medium-sized and SMEs> 3-1 and 3-2) that include two decimal points. Therefore, they may not always coincide with figures calculated from the rate of change in average sales prices and the rate of change in average purchase price in the table above due to rounding.


62.8 64.0 66.0 62.2 65.2 64.6

18.8 19.6 17.7 18.8

17.8 17.0

9.5 8.0 7.4 9.0 7.6 8.5

9.1 8.5 8.9 10.1 9.4 9.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018

Past 3 years Next 3 years

No capital investment was made./No capital investment is planned.DecreaseNo changeIncrease

Survey year(FY)

[Fig. 2-4-2] Growth rate of capital investment by sector

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

All in

dustr

ies

Air T

ransp

ortati

onM

ining

Mac

hinery

Pharm

aceu

tical

Chem

icals

Meta

l Prod

ucts

Food

sTr

ansp

ortati

on Eq

uipme

ntEl

ectri

c App

lianc

esW

areho

using

& H

arbor

Tran

sport

ation

Serv

ices

Fishe

ry, A

gricu

lture

& Fo

restry

Mari

ne Tr

ansp

ortati

onOt

her P

roduc

tsInf

ormati

on &

Com

munic

ation

Texti

les &

App

arels

Servi

ces

Retai

l Trad

eRu

bber

Produ

ctsPu

lp &

Pape

rEl

ectri

c Pow

er &

Gas

Nonfe

rrous

Meta

lsPr

ecisi

on In

strum

ents

Land

Tran

sport

ation

Glass

& C

erami

cs Pr

oduc

tsIro

n & St

eel

Othe

r Fina

ncing

Bus

inesse

sRe

al Es

tate

Who

lesale

Trad

eOi

l & C

oal P

roduc

tsSe

curit

ies &

Com

modit

y Futu

resCo

nstruc

tion

Insura

nce


4 Change in capital investment

Note 1) Increase: Percentage of enterprises responding over 0%, No change: Percentage of enterprises responding 0%, Decrease: Percentage of enterprises responding less than 0%.

Note 2) The “past 3 years” means the period from FY2016 to FY2018. Note 3) The “next 3 years” means the period from FY2019 to FY2021.

Note 1) The “Past 3 years” represents the growth rate from FY2016 to FY2018 (fiscal year average), and the “next 3 years” represents growth rate forecasts from FY2019 to FY2021 (fiscal year average).

Note 2) Sectors include only those with 5 or more responding enterprises for both “past 3 years” and “next 3 years.”

[Fig. 2-4-1]Change in the percentage of enterprises that increased/decreased capital investment

or are expecting an increase/decrease in capital investment for the past 3 years or

over the next 3 years (all industries)

（％）

（％）


（％）

52.5 53.6 53.4 58.3 59.4 58.7

25.5 25.3 24.2

30.3 29.6 29.0

22.1 21.1 22.4 11.5 11.1 12.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018


Decrease No change Increase

Survey year

[Fig. 2-5-1]Change in the percentage of enterprises that increased/decreased employees or

are expecting an increase/decrease in employees for the past 3 years or over

the next 3 years (all industries)

5 Change in the number of employees




（％）

52.4 52.6 53.3 58.4 59.9 58.6

25.8 26.2 25.3

29.9 29.0 29.2

21.7 21.2 21.4 11.8 11.0 12.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018



[Fig. 2-5-2] Change in the percentage of enterprises that increased/decreased full-time employees or are expecting an increase/decrease in full-time employees among their employees for the past 3 years or over the next 3 years (all industries)



Survey year


12.0 12.1 12.4

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Manufacturing Material-typeProcessing-type Other

(%)

(FY)

[Fig. 2-6-1] Ratio of companies that conduct overseas production (manufacturing industries)

6 Overseas production ratio and reverse imports ratio

Note) FY2017, FY2018, and FY2023 indicate actual result, estimate, and forecast, respectively.


3.7 3.7 4.1

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Manufacturing Material-type

Processing-type Other

(%)

(FY)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Man

ufac

turin

g

Text

iles &

App

arel

s

Prec

isio

n In

stru

men

ts

Tran

spor

tatio

nEq

uipm

ent

Rub

ber P

rodu

cts

Elec

tric

App

lianc

es

Met

al P

rodu

cts

Che

mic

als

Oth

er P

rodu

cts

Mac

hine

ry

Non

ferr

ous M

etal

s

Iron

& S

teel

Gla

ss &

Cer

amic

sPr

oduc

ts

Pulp

& P

aper

Food

s

Phar

mac

eutic

al

Oil

& C

oal P

rodu

cts

FY2017 actual result FY2018 estimate FY2023 forecast(%)

[Fig. 2-6-2] Transition of overseas production ratios (manufacturing industries)

[Fig. 2-6-3] Overseas production ratio by sector (manufacturing industries)

Note 1) FY2017, FY2018, and FY2023 indicate actual result, estimate, and forecast, respectively. Note 2) Simple average of responding enterprises including those that reported 0.0% for the overseas

production ratio.

Note 1) Simple average of responding enterprises including those that reported 0.0% for the overseas production ratio.

Note 2) Sectors include only those with 5 or more responding enterprises in all of “FY2017 actual result,” “FY2018 estimate” and “FY2023 forecast.”


9.3 8.7 7.5

88.2 89.2 90.7

2.5 2.2 1.8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2018


(%)

Survey year (FY)

[Fig. 2-6-4] The percentage of companies expecting an increase or a decrease

in overseas production ratio (Manufacturing)

Note) Increase: “Forecast” – “Estimate” ＞ 0, No change: “Forecast” – “Estimate” = 0, Decrease: “Forecast” – “Estimate” ＜ 0. (In FY2018, if the values after subtracting “FY2018 estimate” from “FY2023 forecast” of each responding company are plus, equal, and minus, it is “Increase,” “No change,” and “Decrease.”)


27.2 25.7 24.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Manufacturing Material-type

Processing-type Other

(%)

(FY)

[Fig. 2-6-5] Transition of the ratio of reverse imports (manufacturing industries)

Note 1) FY2017, FY2018, and FY2023 indicate actual result, estimate, and forecast, respectively. Note 2) This is a simple average which excludes enterprises reporting 0.0% overseas production ratio,

while it includes enterprises answering 0.0% reverse imports ratio.


① Labor costs are low 53.4

④ Strong demandexists, or demand isforecast to expand, forour products in the localmarket(s) and marketsin neighboring countries

50.0 ① Labor costs are low 58.7


55.1



⑦ We have entered theoverseas market(s)following entry by ourparent enterprise orcustomer(s) and so on



42.6

⑤ We can catereffectively to overseasusers’ needs

44.2


37.3


40.8


33.5


38.5


33.3

③ We can enjoy lowcosts of materials,overall productionprocesses, distributions,and land/buildings

26.5


27.8


26.9


29.3


22.4

ManufacturingMaterial-type Processing-type Other

[Table 2-6-1] Reason for having an overseas production base (Main reason + Other relevant reasons) Top 5 reasons (Manufacturing industries)

FY2018 survey （％）

FY2017 survey （％）

Note 1) The composition ratio of the “Main reason” and “Other relevant reasons” is based on the number of enterprises that responded.

Note 2) Responding enterprises can choose one “Main reason,” and up to two “Other relevant reasons.”

① Labor costs are low 61.8

④ Strong demand exists, ordemand is forecast toexpand, for our products inthe local market(s) andmarkets in neighboringcountries

54.8 ① Labor costs are low 68.8 ① Labor costs are low 65.3




46.3


51.0


41.9


37.1


36.3


40.8

⑤ We can cater effectivelyto overseas users’ needs

33.0⑤ We can cater effectivelyto overseas users’ needs

35.5⑤ We can cater effectivelyto overseas users’ needs

35.0

③ We can enjoy low costsof materials, overallproduction processes,distributions, andland/buildings

26.5


30.4


32.3


31.3

⑥We have contracts withreliable suppliers of partsand/or raw materials to thelocal facilities in a stablemanner

14.3

ManufacturingMaterial-type Processing-type Other

Documents

II. Medium-sized and SMEs 7)