IISS news May 2016

The Global Goals: A Roadmap to a Sustainable, Fair and More Peaceful Future

Erna Solberg, Prime Minister of Norway, began her Fullerton Lecture on 13 April by identifying aspects of Singapore’s development process that were relevant to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 16) adopted by world leaders at the United Nations in September 2015. Crucially, she noted that Singapore – like Norway – strongly advocates a ‘predictable international order’, governed by law rather than might. She went on to discuss how the SDG 16 has at the heart of its agenda the promotion of just, peaceful and inclu-sive societies, and talked about the particular challenges posed by the Syrian refugee crisis.

The focus of Solberg’s Fullerton Lecture, however, was on the challenges of achieving the SDGs. She emphasised the importance of partnership between governments, the private sector, UN agencies, development banks and civil

society. She also spoke about the importance of cultivating synergies between the 17 sectoral SDGs to ensure an ‘holistic, sustainable development agenda’; the need for governments to implement coherent strategies, policies and investments; and that the global goals will not only reinforce global norms but also raise expectations within countries and across borders. In addition, she stressed that gender equality ‘makes strong economic sense’.

The prime minister concluded by saying that the SDGs provide a route to economic, social and environmental stability, emphasising that the right choices over the next 15 years will make all the difference in achieving these goals. The lecture was chaired by Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS–Asia, and was held at the Fullerton Hotel in Singapore.

Watch the event.

IISS Fullerton Lectures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1IISS Fullerton Forum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2IISS–Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2Security and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5Appointments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7, 17, 18

Armed Conflict . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8Economic and Energy Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9European Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9Future Conflict and Cyber Security . . . . . . . . . . .10Russia–Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11IISS–Americas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12IISS–Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy . . . . . . . . .16

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Erna Solberg, Prime Minister of Norway

2 | MAY 2016 IISS NEWS

ASIA-PACIFIC AUSTRALIA

Australia’s former prime minister Tony Abbott

General (Retd) Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs

Rational and Irrational Actors in a Troubled World

Speaking at the IISS Fullerton Lecture in Singapore on 9 December 2015, Australia’s former prime minister Tony Abbott said that it was ‘easy to be downcast about the world’s prospects’. However, he argued that the success of the Indo-Pacific region provided a ‘powerful antidote’ to despondency. In Singapore’s case, he pointed to the synthesis of ‘Chinese culture, Western values and British justice’ to produce effective govern-ance and prosperity. Although China was ‘flexing its muscles’ and there were ‘tremors from the Middle East’, Abbott highlighted the role of the United States as the ‘key stabiliser’ in the region – a role which would persist even as China became increasingly powerful. He said crippling ten-sions were unlikely ‘because even a cold war would be bad for everyone’. Abbott argued that prospects for the region were good, becoming more prosperous, freer and safer.

In the Middle East, by contrast, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, ‘death cult’ is thriving on conflict and presents the ‘biggest threat to the world’s peace and security’, according to Abbott. He argued strongly for ‘the right intervention’, possibly involving the commitment of Western troops, to destroy this threat.

Following his remarks, there was a lively question-and-answer session, focusing particularly on the challenge of ISIS and how it should be countered. The lecture was chaired by Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS–Asia.

Watch the event.

The 4th IISS Fullerton Forum: The Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting 2016

The fourth Fullerton Forum, which took place in Singapore 24–26 January, brought together almost 70 delegates, mainly senior officials and mili-tary officers from more than 20 countries that regularly participate in the Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD), as well as IISS research staff with expertise in Asian security and a small number of other non-governmental experts from SLD countries. The five main sessions of the Forum – which respec-tively assessed the 2015 Shangri-La Dialogue, relations among the major powers in the Asia–Pacific, the security roles of medium and small powers, emerging threats, and the prospects for conflict management – were off the record.

On 25 January, General (Retd) Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs, delivered the keynote speech on the record. In his address, General Luhut focused on the terrorist threat posed by the Islamic State in Southeast Asia. He underlined the need for a comprehensive strategy to counter the threat, involving a combination of ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ approaches, emphasising that a hard approach – relying on the use of force – would not be sufficient. He also emphasised the importance in an effective counter-terrorist strategy of using international intelligence exchanges as well as programmes for counter-radicalisation.

In the second part of his address, General Luhut provided an upbeat account of Indonesia’s recent economic progress, highlighting that a grow-ing economy is key to fighting terrorism and maintaining political and economic stability.

Watch the keynote address.

Beyond Tahrir: Egypt Five Years After Mubarak

On 26 February, Dr H A Hellyer, Associate Fellow in International Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies, spoke at

our Singapore office in a roundtable seminar chaired by Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director of IISS–Asia. Hellyer, who was in Cairo when Hosni Mubarak fell, when Muhammad Morsi became Egypt’s first democrati-cally elected president, and when Abdel Fattah Al Sisi took office, offered his reflections on and analysis of Egyptian politics over the course of the last five years.

IISS–ASIA SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUEFULLERTON LECTURES EGYPT

IISS NEWS MAY 2016 | 3

Myanmar parliament building (UN Photo/Rick Bajornas)

Myanmar’s strategic relations under the NLD

On 1 March, Dr Nicholas Farrelly of the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, Australian National University, discussed the most important factors that were likely to influence the foreign policy of Myanmar’s new National League for Democracy (NLD) government. These factors included the domestic security calculus (essentially in terms of the rebellions by ethnic armed groups), and the recent history of relations with neighbouring countries such as China, India, Bangladesh and Thailand. He argued that Myanmar was on the front-line of some difficult and challenging aspects of the ‘Asian century’, particularly in terms of strategic rivalry between China and India. In opposition, Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD spoke of the need for a ‘democratic foreign policy’ and ‘a foreign policy of principles’. Farrelly

concluded that while Myanmar’s new foreign policy was likely to be nec-essarily pragmatic – for example in terms of relations with China – the intriguing prospect of Suu Kyi as foreign minister suggested that principled positions on some foreign policy issues were conceivable. This meeting was chaired by Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director IISS–Asia.

IISS–ASIAMYANMAR

Displaced persons at a water tank in West Darfur (Flickr)

The Age of the Fragile CityWith vast areas of the developing world facing unprecedented urban population growth, the IISS gathered a panel of international experts to discuss the emerging concept of ‘fragile cities’. The speakers were Dan Lewis, Chief of the Disaster and Post-Conflict Section of UN-Habitat; Dr Robert Muggah, Research Director at the Igarapé Institute; Dr John De Boer, Senior Policy Advisor at United Nations University and Dr Caroline Moser, Emeritus Professor at the University of Manchester. Held on 11 December, the meeting was chaired by Antônio Sampaio, IISS Research Associate for Security and Development.

Moser explained that urban fragility was associated with the speed of population growth and the fragility of the overall state. Muggah added that violence tended to take place in highly concentrated cities: in some Latin American cities most homicides took place in 1% of the streets. De Boer acknowledged that the UN was not prepared to face the risks and opportunities presented by this urbanisation process, whereas Lewis out-lined some responses the UN was devising to deal with the large migration flows reaching European cities.

The Global Governance Crisis and the Role of the UN

Amid widespread international turbulence and a growing and evolving array of challenges, ranging from continued conflict to large-scale human displacement (to mention but two), world governance is undergoing a pro-found transformation. According to Michael Møller, Director-General of the United Nations Office at Geneva, the UN is not fit to play a role in this new arena and needs to adjust to avoid becoming irrelevant.

At this discussion meeting on 27 April, chaired by Research Fellow for Security and Development Virginia Comolli, Møller argued in favour of greater preventative work to stop crises from emerging, stronger coopera-

tion and partnerships with, for instance, regional actors, and educating the public through a more constructive approach to news reporting.

Watch the video.

1st IISS–FUNAG DialogueOn 26 February, the IISS Security and Development Programme and the Alexandre de Gusmão Foundation (FUNAG) co-hosted a day-long dia-logue on ‘Strategies for International Peacebuilding and Development’ at the Itamaraty Palace (Ministry of External Relations) in Brasília.

The aim of the dialogue was to encourage frank and insightful discussion of Brazil’s current thinking on international development and peacebuilding between the Brazilian Ministry of External Relations, other relevant Brazilian government agencies, and leading external and international experts. Additionally, it was hoped that such discussions would pave the way for future strategies and strengthen Brazil’s voice in global security and devel-opment issues. Specific themes discussed included: emerging powers in peacebuilding; building resilience and promoting stability in fragile regions; Brazil’s engagement with international security and stability; Brazil’s chang-ing role as a development actor; managing the impact of climate change; and economic diplomacy and soft power in the developing world.

The dialogue was the first iteration of what IISS and FUNAG hope will become an annual event.

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENTORGANISED CRIME UNITED NATIONS BRAZIL

4 | MAY 2016 IISS NEWS

The Future Operating Environment 2035

The Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) is an official ‘in-house’ think tank within the UK Ministry of Defence. It recently released a report – ‘Future Operating Environment 2035’ – that describes the poten-tial characteristics of the environment in which the British armed forces and government agencies are likely to operate in two decades’ time.

On 9 March, Director of the DCDC Rear Admiral John Kingwell, launched the report at Arundel House. The report aims to provide a clear military context for policymakers, in order to inform the debate on future capabilities and concepts. This included the key institutional, techno-logical, cultural and physical characteristics likely to shape the military operating environment in the future. Of these, increasing urbanisation and anti-access and area-denial capabilities were assessed as important factors. The report also placed understanding people and their motivations as a core capability for future armed forces. It went on to identify some of the key future capabilities including unmanned systems and ‘big data’ analyt-ics.

Although the briefing was off the record, slides are available on the website and the full report can be downloaded. Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare at IISS, chaired the event.

The Road from Sarajevo: British Army Operations in Bosnia 1995–96

Just over 20 years ago, the savage Bosnian civil war was ended politically by the Dayton Agreement. But the treaty’s military provisions had to be implemented on the ground by NATO forces. On 10 March, IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry launched his new book on the decisive military role of the UK in these challenging operations. In a detailed analysis of their peace enforcement mission, he illustrates the challenges of these operations, often in the words of the officers and soldiers taking part. The book analyses the factors that influenced the mili-tary successes of the NATO Implementation Force and its British military contingent. It also shows how the success of these operations gave rise to military and political overconfidence, which contributed to subsequent

British miscalculations in the Iraq and Afghan wars. The event was chaired by Dr Bastian Giegerich, Director of Defence and Military Analysis at IISS, and took place at Arundel House in London.

Listen to the event and find contemporary news reports of the opera-tions on the website.

What Next for Defence Acquisition Reform?

There are two simple principles to buying defence equipment: don’t order what you can’t pay for; and once you’ve decided what you want, stick to it. So said Sir Bernard Gray, until recently the UK Chief of Defence Materiel, responsible for purchasing and supporting all military kit.

Speaking in a valedictory lecture at Arundel House on 8 December, Gray explained how he addressed the flawed process that allowed the Ministry of Defence to buy equipment worth tens of billions of pounds more than it could actually afford. Programmes for new kit that was essen-tially unaffordable proceeded at a snail’s pace so as to keep down the annual spending on them. Gray pointed out that these delays were not cost-free, either in terms of money or operational capability. When offering lessons for the future, he suggested that risk-sharing between the buyer and supplier was the answer, in addition to international cooperation – both easier said than done, he admitted. He concluded by saying ‘To see clearly, we must rise above the trees to see the forest.’ The meeting was chaired by Alexander Nicoll, Senior Fellow for Geo-economics and Defence.

Listen to the event.

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS EXPERTS

Ministry of Defence main building in Whitehall, London (Crown copyright)

British forces in Bosnia, 2012 (Crown copyright)

The British Army’s AJAX prototype armoured fighting vehicle (Andrew Linnett/MoD/Crown copyright)

NATODEFENCE TECHNOLOGY DEFENCE POLICY

IISS NEWS MAY 2016 | 5

IISS experts talk with members of the press following the launch

Peshmerga soldiers training near Erbil, Iraq, October 2015 (US Army/Tristan Bolden)

DEFENCE

Is the Campaign Against ISIS Succeeding?

Between late 2015 and early 2016, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, suffered battlefield reverses in the Iraqi towns of Baiji, Sinjar and Ramadi. This suggested that last year’s efforts to accelerate the campaign against ISIS were having a positive effect. Yet, major hurdles to dislodge the group in Iraq and Syria remain.

On 3 February, Linda Robinson, Senior Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation, presented an assessment of the United States-led campaign to counter ISIS. Based on her research over the previous 18 months, includ-ing field trips to Iraq, Jordan and Kuwait, her analysis focused on the political and military aspects of the strategy, including the alignment of political interests within Iraq and Syria and the military capabilities of the various forces on which the counter-ISIS coalition is reliant for success on the ground. The discussion meeting was chaired by Brigadier (Retd) Ben

The Military Balance 2016The Military Balance 2016 was launched at a series of events in February and March. The main press launch took place at Arundel House in London on 9 February, in front of international print and broadcast media. ‘The proliferation of advanced military capabilities, and of new and innovative technologies, is leading to an increasingly complex bal-ance of military power,’ said Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive, in his opening remarks. Across the world, access to militarily-relevant high technologies is growing and ‘for Western military powers, unfettered access is no longer a given, nor is technological superi-ority. Western military technological superiority, a core assumption of the past two decades, is eroding.’ Slowing this emerging trend or reversing it, Chipman said, ‘will be a key preoccupation of Western strategists in the coming decade.’

Russia and China, The Military Balance notes, are increasingly active in the development and deployment of advanced military capabilities. Indeed, the advanced systems now in service with Russia’s armed forces call ‘into question a key element of NATO’s plan, initiated in Wales, rapidly to reinforce allies.’ Meanwhile, 2015 saw the first sign of defence-budget stabilisation in Europe since 2008. The book contains analysis indicating that, while reaching NATO’s 2% target will be difficult, some states – par-ticularly in Europe’s east and north – are now registering real increases in defence outlays. That said, continuing the recent trend, ‘Asia now spends nearly US$100 billion more on defence than NATO’s European member states.’

The London launch was followed two weeks later by an interactive webinar on the book’s conclusions, hosted by Director of Defence and Military Analysis Dr Bastian Giegerich. Subsequently, and as in previous years, members of the IISS Defence and Military Analysis Programme con-ducted launches in other countries. On 25 February, simultaneous events took place in Brussels and Berlin. In Brussels, four team members briefed an audience of around 50, including diplomats and military profession-als, at the Egmont Palace. The event was hosted by the Egmont Institute. Two team members spoke in Berlin at a launch hosted by the Korber

Foundation – the third year that Korber have hosted a Military Balance launch event. Finally, 1 March saw the team launch the book at the IISS–Americas office in Washington DC, where the audience included defence industrialists, government officials and journalists.

The Military Balance 2016 is packed with defence facts and objective analysis, as well as charts, graphics and maps supporting the trends outlined in the book. Specialist essays focus on deterrence in cyberspace, developments in armoured fighting vehicle technolo-gies, and China’s ballistic missiles sector, while this year’s wall chart carries analysis of Gulf region mis-sile defence capabilities.

Watch the press launch in London or watch the IISS–Americas launch.

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSISEXPERTS

Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare at IISS, and took place at Arundel House in London.

Watch the event.

ISLAMIC STATEDEFENCE ECONOMICS

6 | MAY 2016 IISS NEWS

SOUTH ASIA PAKISTAN NUCLEARINDIA

IISS South Asia Security Workshop: Building Regional Security and Countering Extremism and Terrorism

The second IISS workshop on South Asian security, supported by the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies (NESA), took place at the IISS–Middle East office in Manama, Bahrain, on 23–24 April.

This off-the-record track 1.5 meeting brought together 30 participants, including serving Indian and Pakistani top intelligence officers, senior government officials and diplomats, members of parliament and other influential opinionmakers from India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Nearly half the participants were attending the workshop for the first time.

The discussion focused on the region’s security issues. The substan-tive sessions included ‘Talking to the Taliban in Afghanistan’, ‘Improving India–Pakistan Relations’ and ‘Countering Daesh/ISIS in South Asia’. For the first time, a highly interactive session on the role of the regional media in facilitating or disrupting peace processes took place.

The workshop was organised by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia, and Antoine Levesques, IISS Research Associate

for South Asia, along with IISS Conference and Events Coordinators Lilli Harkonen and Mohamed Al Shamlan. The third IISS South Asia Security Workshop is expected to take place in Bahrain in April 2017.

Pakistan’s Security Perspective

In this key address at Arundel House on 26 April, Pakistan’s Federal Minister for Interior and Narcotics Control, Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, urged the West to work alongside Muslims and adopt regional approaches to fight terrorism. He noted that incidences of terrorist-related violence in Pakistan had decreased in the first four months of 2016, fol-lowing an increase in coordination and sharing of information among Pakistan’s 33 intelligence agencies.

In response to a query, Nisar explained that the ambitious China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project would lead to changes in almost every environment of Pakistan. The Pakistan government’s pri-mary focus was on promoting, supporting and protecting this project. Nisar expressed his satisfaction at the positive state of Pakistan–UK rela-tions, but called for an improvement in bilateral relations with the Afghan government. Following the implementation of the 20-point National Action Plan, the minister called for the institutionalisation of policies that reduce the targeting of minorities in Pakistan. Alongside this, Pakistan would continue to strengthen its border controls and intelligence- gathering efforts in order to improve the security situation in the country. The meeting was chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies, IISS.

Watch the video.

Deterrence at Sea – India’s Evolving Options

The first naval officer to be Commander-in-Chief of India’s Strategic Forces Command, Vice Admiral (Retd) Vijay Shankar, spoke in a discus-sion meeting at the IISS on 31 March. Shankar talked primarily about India’s Arihant class nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed submarine, which is expected to be commissioned shortly, and discussed the devel-opment of India’s nuclear programme. He explained that the INS Arihant was the first of five Arihant class submarines planned to be built in India, the second of which was under construction. It was armed with the K-15 missile, which has a range of 800km – the 3,500km K-4 missile would be deployed later.

Shankar called for India to develop greater strategic ties with China, and stated that India’s deterrent relationship with China should be used as a model globally. In response to a query, he talked about how technology affected deterrence stability, primarily with regard to the possibility of an increase in actors equipped with nuclear weapons in the Indian Ocean. The meeting was chaired by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia.

Listen to the event.

The workshop focused on the region’s security issues

Pakistani forces in the Swat valley (Wikimedia)

The Indian Navy’s major annual TROPEX exercise, 2014 (Indian Navy)

IISS NEWS MAY 2016 | 7

SOUTH ASIAEXPERTS PAKISTANDEVELOPMENT

Poverty Management and its Effect on Regional Stability

On 14 March, the IISS hosted Minister Marvi Memon, Chair of the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) and Minister of State in Pakistan, for a private roundtable meeting on poverty management. Memon explored the role of the BISP, which was Pakistan’s largest social safety net, in empow-ering women and educating children to manage poverty in Pakistan. She outlined the BISP’s new health insurance initiative, as well as plans to encourage the vulnerable to vaccinate their children and introduce family planning. Memon then detailed how the BISP was encouraging self-employment through their newly established e-commerce system. She called for an increase in knowledge sharing on poverty-management strat-egies in South Asia, through platforms such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation.

Following the question and answer session High Commissioner for Pakistan to the United Kingdom, Syed Ibne Abbas, provided additional remarks on poverty management and alleviation in Pakistan and the successes of BISP. The meeting was also attended by Philip Barton, a senior FCO official and, until recently, the British High Commissioner to Pakistan. It was chaired by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia.

Listen to the event.

Pakistan’s Nuclear Diplomacy

One of Pakistan’s top diplomatic priorities is to negotiate its entry into the ‘mainstream’ of the global nuclear order as a ‘responsible’ nuclear state. But Pakistan’s access to international markets for peaceful uses of nuclear energy should not be misconstrued as or preconditioned on ‘nor-malising’ Pakistan as a de facto nuclear weapons state. This was the key message of former Pakistani Ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Sarwar Naqvi, on 4 May.

Speaking at Arundel House on ‘Pakistan’s Nuclear Diplomacy’, Ambassador Naqvi delivered a wide-ranging set of remarks and dis-cussion points, which provided a comprehensive overview and robust defence of Pakistan’s positions on key international nuclear policy debates, its stance on its own defence and deterrence posture, and relations with India. The event was chaired by Antoine Levesques, Research Associate for South Asia at the IISS.

Listen to the event.

18th SAARC Summit on November 26, 2014 in Kathmandu, Nepal (SAARC)

Former Pakistani Ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Sarwar Naqvi, with Antoine Levesques, Research Associate for South Asia at the IISS

Survival: Global Politics and StrategyIn the April–May 2016 issue of Survival, Ariel Ahram and Ellen Lust explore the decline and fall of the Arab state; Michael Boyle warns of a coming illiberal order; Stephen Larrabee explores the Kurdish issue; Daniel Fiott suggests paying for NATO defence infrastructure with EU funds; Stephan Frühling and Guillaume Lasconjarias take on NATO’s Kaliningrad problem; Tomasz Paszewski asks if Poland is ready to defend itself; Matthias Matthijs con-siders German power; Bastian Giegerich and Maximilian Terhalle discuss the Munich consensus; Jonathan Caverley and Ethan Kapstein analyse Asian arms imports; Russell Crandall and Wade Leach contribute a review essay on history and policy; Gilles Andréani, Ray Takeyh, David Unger and H.R. McMaster review recent

books; and Dana Allin investigates Donald Trump’s America.

AppointmentsThe IISS welcomes the following:

Ben CareyDirector of Operations

Holly Marriott WebbEditorial Assistant, Online

Sonam RabadiaJunior Accounts Assistant

Carol ReedDirector of Communications

Leigh Morris SloaneManaging Director, IISS–Americas

Sam NugéeDirector-General’s Office Coordinator

Jonathan StevensonSenior Fellow for US Defence; Editor of Strategic Comments

PUBLICATIONS

8 | MAY 2016 IISS NEWS

Understanding the Strategies of Non-state Actors in Armed Conflict: A Comparative Study

On 18 January, the IISS held a discussion meeting with Dr Anastasia Voronkova, Research Fellow for Armed Conflict and the Armed Conflict Database at the IISS. Voronkova addressed three prevailing themes in con-flict research, all of which constitute potential avenues for future research

within the Armed Conflict Programme. Firstly, she highlighted the useful-ness of understanding how armed actors justify violent collective action to their audiences and supporters, and how shifts in perception can explain the success of some non-state armed groups over others, especially in the Middle East. Secondly, she drew on examples to assess possible factors contributing to the spillover of conflict, including the diffusion of informa-tion via social media. Thirdly, Voronkova suggested that conflict legacies were not always entirely negative if the efforts of governments were directed towards reorganising communal interaction in less violent ways. The discussion was chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies at IISS.

The IISS Armed Conflict Survey 2016: Media Launch

On 5 May, the 2016 edition of the Armed Conflict Survey was launched at Arundel House, with a keynote presentation by Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, author of the book’s chapter on ‘Pessimism and Planning in Armed Conflict’. Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive of the IISS, then presented the principal findings of the 2016 survey, concerning the distribution of conflict fatalities globally; the recovery of territory from insurgents by states, with foreign assistance; the multi-front battle against ISIS; the surge in the number of refugees and IDPs; and the threat from foreign fighters.

Fatalities in the 37 active conflicts covered by the Armed Conflict Survey amounted to 167,000 in 2015, of which 50% occurred in the Middle East and 21% in Latin America. Six conflicts – Syria, Iraq, Central America, Mexico, Nigeria (Boko Haram) and Afghanistan – accounted for four-fifths of the total. Despite the rising death toll in Nigeria, fatalities fell markedly in sub-Saharan Africa and some conflicts there registered de-escalation and progress towards conflict resolution.

Questions from the assembled press representatives concerned rising fatalities in Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen, the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, the trajectory of the Darfur conflict and changes in headline fatality and displacement figures in 2014–15. The panel that

fielded those questions comprised Dr Anastasia Voronkova, Research Fellow for Armed Conflict and Editor of Armed Conflict Survey; Virginia Comolli, Research Fellow for Security and Development; Hebatalla Taha, Research Analyst at IISS–Middle East; and Jens Wardenaer, Research Analyst for Armed Conflict.

Watch the event. Members can buy the 2016 Armed Conflict Survey at a 50% discount for a limited time.

Conflict Management in Ukraine: A Frontline Perspective

On 11 April, the Armed Conflict Programme hosted a discussion meet-ing with Dr Samir Puri, Lecturer in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. Puri shared his experience as a member of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in eastern Ukraine and highlighted the relative success of measures put into place to influence the scope, direc-tion and dynamics of the conflict. He noted that the presence of Russians in the OSCE Mission could be viewed positively, as it created opportuni-ties for dialogue and cooperation, even if only within the framework of the Mission. He further discussed the devastating impact of the conflict on Ukraine’s economy, as well as the stark contrast between the east’s peri-ods of escalation and de-escalation compared to the rest of the country.

The meeting was held at Arundel House and was chaired by Dr Anastasia Voronkova, Research Fellow for Armed Conflict and the Armed Conflict Database at the IISS.

IISS experts talk with members of the press following the launch

US and Ukraine training near Yavoriv, Ukraine, as part of Fearless Guardian II (US Army/Adriana M . Diaz-Brown)

ARMED CONFLICT ARMED CONFLICT SURVEY UKRAINE CONFLICT RESOLUTION

IISS NEWS MAY 2016 | 9

ECONOMIC AND ENERGY SECURITYEXPERTS

Oman and Iran, separated by the Strait of Hormuz (nasa .gov/Stuart Rankin)

USS Ronald Reagan in the Strait of Malacca (Kevin B . Gray/US Navy)

The Security of Oil Trade: A Regional Geo-economics Perspective

On 3 February, the IISS–Middle East office hosted three panellists in Bahrain to discuss the importance of secure trade routes and geo political factors affecting their viability. Addressing industry risks, Sheikh Al Khalifa, Chief Executive of Nogaholding, said the price of oil no longer reflected the implications of risk, warning that this development was ‘not very wise’. He emphasised that the impact of changing oil prices on oil-dependent Gulf countries had been widely underestimated as a risk. Dr Jarmo Kotilaine, Chief Economist at the Bahrain Economic Development Board, spoke of the technological advances and significant re-configurations in the supply side of the oil market in recent years. He characterised American oil production as a short-lived ‘renaissance’, forecasting that the old powers would reassert their dominance in the industry.

Meanwhile, Dr Omar Al-Ubaydli, Program Director for International and Geo-Political Studies at the Bahrain Centre for Strategic, International

and Energy Studies, noted that changes in the status quo had fundamental impacts on the security of trade routes.

Chairing the panel was Dr Pierre Noël, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security at the IISS, who presented risk analyses of two key trade routes in the Middle East and Southeast Asia on behalf of Asian energy importers. He discussed the value of new pipeline systems in alleviating the risks of maritime insecurity in the South China Sea and highlighted the concentrated reliance on the Middle East.

Watch the event.

Security of Seaborne Oil and Gas Trade: An Economic Approach

Dr Pierre Noël, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security at the IISS, presented his key findings on the implications of maritime insecurity in the Middle East and Southeast Asia at Arundel House on 27 January.

Noël discussed changing security dynamics in Asian and Middle Eastern areas that were directly tied to Asian energy suppliers, exacer-bating existing threats to the global energy market. Emphasising the link between maritime security and energy-supply security, Noël presented figures on the costs of insuring Asian energy imports, as well as risk analyses conducted on two key trade routes in the Middle East (Strait of Hormuz) and Southeast Asia (Strait of Malacca and South China Sea) on

behalf of Asian energy importers. Additionally he discussed the value of new pipeline systems that would alleviate the risks of maritime insecurity in the South China Sea. The meeting was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, IISS Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs.

Watch the event.

GEO-ECONOMICSMIDDLE EASTENERGY SECURITY

Peace Without Money, War Without Americans – Can European Strategy Cope?

Professor Dr Sven Biscop, Director of the Europe in the World programme at Egmont – The Royal Institute for International Relations, discussed some of the challenges facing the EU with Dr Bastian Giegerich, IISS Director of Defence and Military Analysis, on 4 February.

Biscop argued that Europe faced a ‘double challenge’: to resolutely act to protect vital interests in its neighbourhood while most of its member states were in the grip of austerity and while the US was in the process

of shifting its strategic focus to Asia and the Pacific. Noting that the EU was in the process of drawing up a replacement to the 2003 European Security Strategy, Biscop put forward four questions that the result must address.

Firstly, the question of global governance – what should Europe’s position be on reform? Secondly, the question of how to deal with cer-tain individual powers like Russia and China. Thirdly, the question of the broader European neighbourhood – through the European Neighbourhood Policy the EU attempts to promote its values to the immediate south and east, but has had mixed success. How should Europe proceed on this front? Fourthly, and finally, Biscop questioned what role Europe should play when things go wrong, and whether or not it should take on the role of a security provider.

EUROPEAN STRATEGY

10 | MAY 2016 IISS NEWS

The Strategic Aspects of SpaceOn 19 April, Arundel House welcomed Sir Martin Sweeting OBE, the Executive Chairman of Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. (SSTL), to speak about the strategic importance of space to the United Kingdom.

Founded in the 1970s by Sir Martin, SSTL pioneered rapid-response, low-cost and highly capable small satellites, using modern consumer elec-tronics to change the economy of space. The advancements in the field of small satellites made by Sir Martin have shaped today’s space domain. With much lower barriers to entry, there has been a proliferation of small satellites, and almost all states today are dependent upon space to some degree.

Sir Martin spoke about a series of interrelated concerns, including the benefits to the UK of acquiring a sovereign observation capability, the role that satellites would play in the 5G ecosystem, the big data opportunities and challenges presented by the continuous monitoring of earth, and the

risk of non-state actors dominating in space. The meeting was chaired by Nigel Inkster, Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security at the IISS, and a copy of Sir Martin’s slideshow is available on the website.

Listen to the event.

EXPERTSFUTURE CONFLICT AND CYBER SECURITY CYBER SECURITY SPACE

Academic Network Workshop

In late February, the Future Conflict and Cyber Security programme convened a meeting of the Academic Network on behalf of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office to discuss the feasibility of the UK government adopting elements of a multi-stakeholder approach in international cyber security. Participants discussed the applicability of the multi-stakeholder model to internet governance as well as the roles that the private sector, academia and civil society can take in furthering the international cyber secu-rity agenda.

Following the workshop, the programme held a stu-dent essay competition in order to recruit the next generation of academics to this network. Two essays were selected by our panel, and their authors met with IISS experts in April.

Survival Seminar: Encryption Policy and the Darknet

On 3 February, the IISS hosted security studies Professor Thomas Rid and PhD Candidate Daniel Moore, both from King’s College London, to speak about their recent lead article in the February–March 2016 issue of Survival, ‘Cryptopolitik and the Darknet’. The ground-breaking study – downloaded more than 30,000 times, making it Survival’s most-read article online – examined the material contained on the darknet, the encrypted hidden services provided by the Tor Project.

With their research showing that the primary uses for the darknet are illicit, they argued that the darknet demonstrates the need for each application of encryption to be judged on its merits, in order to prevent legitimate uses of encryption being undermined. The meeting was held at Arundel House in London and was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, Editor

of Survival and Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs.

Watch the event.

Track 1 .5 Dialogue on Cyber Security

In March, delegates from Chinese government agencies and the research institution China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations joined UK government representatives, academics and IISS staff for a track 1.5 dialogue on the topic of cyber security. This meeting, held in London, focused on cooperation between the UK and China on issues of cyber security, and how this can improve prosperity for each country.

A large array of radio telescopes (ESO/Babak Tafreshi)

(EFF-Graphics)

A US cyber transport systems technician (USAF/ George Goslin)

IISS NEWS MAY 2016 | 11

UNITED STATES

Russian President Vladimir Putin with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping (kremlin .ru)

Lunskoye-A offshore gas production platform, near Sakhalin Island, Russia (Pixabay)

Swedish forces in Norway, February 2016, during Exercise Cold Response 16 which involved troops from 13 NATO and partner countries (US Marine Corps/Rebecca Floto)

Survival Seminar: The Nature of the Russian Threat to NATO

On 17 December, IISS–Americas hosted a lecture to discuss articles from the December 2015–January 2016 edition of Survival. Chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, the event fea-tured Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, Jonathan Solomon, Senior Systems and Technology Analyst at Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc., and Elbridge Colby, Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Co-authors of ‘Facing Russia: Conventional Defence and Deterrence in Europe’, Colby and Solomon claimed that it was unclear if NATO had the strategy or capabilities to counter Russian aggression. In order for NATO to achieve credible conventional deterrence, they argued, it must be able to ‘delay, disrupt, and deny’ Russia’s potential attacks using ground, air, and naval forces, strategic logistics, and centralised command and control. A ‘tripwire’ approach – deterrence by punishment – was inadequate; NATO needed deterrence by denial. Author of ‘The Ghost of Hybrid War’, Charap contended that a ‘hybrid’ war between

Report Launch: The US and Russia in the Asia-Pacific

On 30 March, IISS–Americas launched ‘The US and Russia in the Asia-Pacific’, the product of a two-year collaboration between the IISS and the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO). Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia and one of the report’s authors, introduced its findings and chaired the discussion. Dr Vasily Mikheev, Deputy Director of IMEMO and another author of the report, presented his views on Russian foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific. Dr Kurt Campbell, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Asia Group and former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific, discussed key issues facing the US and Russia in the region, as well as potential areas for cooperation. Dr. Charap highlighted the short-term policy recommendations from the report for both Russia and the US regarding their bilateral interactions in the Asia-Pacific region.

Watch the video and download the report.

Prospects for Russia’s Economy

On 13 April, Dr Igor Yurgens, Chairman of the Management Board of the Institute for Contemporary Development (Russia) and a member of the IISS Council, gave a presentation at Arundel House on Russia’s economy. Yurgens presented an insightful analysis of Russia’s recent economic per-formance in the wake of the fall in oil prices and the imposition of Western sanctions. In particular he drew attention to the fall in real incomes, which marked the current crisis out from previous ones. Yurgens also addressed the political impediments to undertaking structural reform, and spoke about Russia’s internal politics and the downturn in relations with Western states. The meeting was chaired by Dr Nicholas Redman, Director of Editorial.

Watch the video.

Russia and NATO was unlikely because Russia’s objectives in Ukraine were limited and specific. As such, he stated that the conflict in Ukraine should not be seen as a template for a potential conflict between Russia and NATO. Moreover, he questioned why NATO should doubt the effec-tiveness of deterrence by punishment, given its long successful track record during the Cold War and beyond.

Watch the video.

RUSSIA–EURASIAEXPERTS RUSSIA NATO GEO-ECONOMICS

12 | MAY 2016 IISS NEWS

IISS–AMERICAS EXPERTSTERRORISM AND SECURITY COUNTER-TERRORISMNORTH AFRICA

Book Launch – Evolution of the Cyber Domain: The Implications for National and Global Security

On 5 April, IISS–Americas hosted a launch of the new strategic dossier on cyber security with Nigel Inkster, Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security, Dr Eneken Tikk-Ringas, Consulting Senior Fellow for Future Conflict and Cyber Security, and Dr Mika Kerttunen, Director of Research for the Cyber Policy Institute.

Inkster explained that there are three leading global cyber powers: China, Russia and the US. Each of these countries viewed the cyber domain differently; China and Russia believed that each nation should be able to manage its cyber domain the way it saw fit, while the US had taken the stance that international law should prevail. These opposing views had raised questions over the role that international norms play in governing international law and policy. Tikk-Ringas emphasised that the purpose of launching this strategic dossier was to bring some of these issues to light and to start a dialogue on ICT as a new avenue of national and normative power. The event was held in Washington DC and was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of IISS–Americas.

Watch the event.

Book Launch – North Africa in Transition: The Struggle for Democracies and Institutions

On 20 January, the latest Adelphi book on North Africa was launched at IISS–Americas in Washington DC. The panel included the book’s editor, Ben Fishman, Haim Malka, one of its contributing authors from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Egypt and Maghreb Affairs John Desrocher.

Fishman opened the discussion by addressing the core arguments of the book, namely how different institu-tions produced different outcomes during the Arab Spring, as well as the role of the US and its European allies in investing resources in the Maghreb. He highlighted Libya as a case study for the need to empower local governments and promote intra-regional cooperation, rather than allowing the West to take full ownership. Malka expanded this analysis to the wider Maghreb region, characteris-ing Algeria as the ‘lynchpin’ of the entire Middle East and forecasting a ‘rough year’ of economic stagnation, growing radicalism and a lack of sus-tainable government action. Desrocher emphasised the need for strategic co operation to counter violent extremism, enhance border security and remove economic barriers. The panellists agreed on the need for the US to take a measured, long-term approach to promote cooperation on several fronts, while also taking into account indigenous perspectives. The launch was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of IISS–Americas.

Watch the event.

The Changing Nature of Terrorism and Counterterrorism

Speaking on 24 February at a discussion meeting on the evolution of ter-rorism and counterterrorism, Daniel Byman, a professor in the Security Studies Program at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, stated that ‘a worldwide counterterrorism machine went into gear’ after 9/11 and had been growing ever since. He went on to explain that, due to the growth in terrorism threats, there had been global cooperation to fight terrorism as ‘the whole world has become the CIA.’ Byman suggested that Western states were increasingly consumed by fear as ISIS’ global expansion contin-ued, posing new challenges to politics and security.

Meanwhile, Bruce Hoffman, Director of Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies, spoke of how ISIS was creating a message of ‘empowerment, hatred with desire for revenge and retaliation’, suggesting the West had misread the threat as the Islamic State continued to grow. Both speakers agreed that, as the world tried to fight terrorism, questions

remained as to whether someone would intervene and, if they did, what happened next. The meeting was held in Washington DC and was chaired by Donald Daniel, a retired professor from the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University.

Watch the event.

An exercise at Nellis Air Force Base, Nev (USAF/ Brett Clashman)

US forces in Afghanistan, 2013 (Justin Young/US Army)

IISS NEWS MAY 2016 | 13

IISS–AMERICASEXPERTS

Western Defence Reassurances to Gulf Arabs After the Iran Deal: Are We on the Same Page?

On 21 April, Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of IISS–Americas, chaired a 90-minute panel discussion featuring four panelists with extensive knowledge of defence reassurances after the Iran nuclear deal. The panel included Ellen Laipson, IISS Council Member and President Emeritus of the Stimson Center; Michael Eisenstadt, Military and Security Studies Program Director at the Washington Institute; Caroline Hurndall MBE, Head of the Middle East Team at the British Embassy in Washington; and Bilal Saab, Resident Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the Atlantic Council.

The discussion considered whether post-Iran deal arms sales to Gulf Cooperation Council countries met the goal of reassurance and how the sales were affecting the geopolitics of the region. There was general con-sensus among the panel that the reaction by Gulf states to the Iran deal had not been the one that the US and its allies had hoped to achieve, and

that establishing a personal relationship with Gulf countries was essential to the overall security of the region. There were, however, mixed views as to whether arms sales from NATO countries were complementary or com-petitive. While Eisenstadt said that the current US administration had only further complicated relations in the region by increasing arms sales to Gulf states, Hurndall was more optimistic, explaining that the relationships that were forged were not transactional in nature and would help foster long-term, personal relationships.

Watch the event.

Survival Seminar: The Coming Illiberal Order

Following the recent Survival article ‘The Coming Illiberal Order’, IISS–Americas hosted author Dr Michael Boyle, Assistant Professor of Political Science at La Salle University, to speak about his analysis of the new inter-national order.

Boyle argued that the world was experiencing a resurgence in illiberal principles and authoritarian rule, while liberalism was on the decline. These illiberal principles were at odds with the system that the US had imple-mented and, according to Boyle, the refusal to abide by American rules is an attempt to be recognised as equals on the international stage. He pre-dicted that – in the absence of an unforeseen catalyst – this change would occur slowly over time, and, although it would not remove the institutions that currently exist (such as the United Nations), their politics would adjust to reflect the interests of the illiberal states. He also noted that alliances between states were becoming more fluid and adaptable to the demands of its members, and that in order for the US to preserve its power, it must become more flexible. The event was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, Editor of Survival and Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs.

Iran After the Nuclear DealOn 9 December, IISS–Americas hosted a roundtable with Dr Ali Ansari, Director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews. The discussion touched upon Iran’s internal politics, as well as its role in the region following the recent nuclear negotiations that resulted in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. When considering whether the negotiations would lead to political reforms on top of the lifting of sanctions, Ansari sug-gested that any reform would require structural changes within the Islamic Republic that had not yet been seen. He emphasised the re-election chal-lenges Iranian President Hassan Rouhani would face in 2017 if the economy continued to stagnate, and stated that, although improved US–Iran rela-tions were far off on the horizon, there might be agreement between the two countries on some issues. Ansari concluded by urging caution in dealing with Iran, saying it would seize the opportunity to provoke the West if any signs of weakness were shown. Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of the IISS–Americas, chaired the event, which took place in Washington DC.

IISS–US becomes IISS–AmericasThe IISS office in Washington DC, which has been known as IISS–US since its inception in 2001, has been rebranded as IISS–Americas. This name reflects the broader responsibilities of the office to represent the Institute and to continue to engage with policymaking communities, multilateral organisations, non-governmental organisations and multinational corpo-rations throughout North and South America. The first formal event at the Washington office under the new brand will be held on 24 May, featuring former Canadian ambassador to Cuba Mark Entwistle, who will be offer-ing lessons on the Canadian experience to American businesses and other organisations keen to take advantage of America’s re-engagement with Cuba. More from IISS–Americas.

UN headquarters, New York (UN/Manuel Elias)

Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Mohammad Javad Zarif, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Iran (EEAS)

GEOPOLITICSGULF STATESIRAN

14 | MAY 2016 IISS NEWS

Islamic State: Middle East Islamic Radicalism Goes Global

On 24 February, the IISS hosted a corporate breakfast at Arundel House with Professor Toby Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East. He discussed the origins and modern incarnation of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, as well as its organisational structure, capac-ity and ideological appeal. Dodge examined the ability of ISIS to regroup and remobilise after battlefield losses beyond its conventional operational borders in Iraq and Syria and, with its appeal to sympathisers in other regions, to speed up the recruitment of volunteers for suicide bomb attacks overseas.

IISS–MIDDLE EAST EXPERTS

Adelphi Launch – Egypt After the Spring: Revolt and Reaction

On 2 March, Arundel House saw the launch of an Adelphi volume of considerable scholarly analy-sis of post-Arab Spring Egypt. The panel, chaired by Emile Hokayem, IISS Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, included Michael Hanna, Senior Fellow at the Century Foundation, and IISS Research Analyst Hebatalla Taha. The nine-chapter volume includes chapters written by Emile Hokayem, Professor Nathan J. Brown, Professor Ellis Goldberg, Dr Zeinab Abul-Magd, Yasser El-Shimy, Michael Hanna, Dr H.A. Hellyer, Gamal Hassan, Hebatalla Taha and Mohamed El Dahshan. The book spans the turbulent transition from the uprising against Hosni Mubarak in early 2011, through the election and removal of Muhammad Morsi, until Abdel Fattah Al Sisi’s gain and consolidation of presidential powers by late 2015. The panel shed light on the politics, power players, economy, security challenges and for-eign policy of Egypt, and offered insight into where the future might lead.

Watch the video.

Islamic State and the Failures of the War on Terror

At a discussion meeting held on 29 February at Arundel House David Kilcullen, Former Counterinsurgency Advisor in Iraq and to the NATO Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, considered the West’s options for facing the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, in light of its finan-cial and armed capabilities, and recent developments in the Middle East. He discussed the factors that led to the failure of the counter-terrorism strategy of the US and its allies, the rise of ISIS amid the splintering of the Iraqi government and the anti-Assad movement in Syria, and the reasons behind the influx of foreign fighters to the Islamic State from Europe, Asia and Africa. The event was chaired by Nigel Inkster, IISS Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security.

Watch the video.

Global Jihadism: Going Backwards?

On 29 February, Nigel Inkster, IISS Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security, hosted a webinar on global jihadism and why radicalisation appears to be on the rise. He discussed the emergence of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, in a setting where many thought Islamic radi-calism had been exhausted by al-Qaeda’s defeat and Osama bin Laden’s death in 2011. The discussion covered the unpredictable nature of ISIS fighters and their higher levels of military experience and sophistication, along with future scenarios and potential policies to confront this threat. The webinar was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies.

Listen to the webinar.

US aircraft refuel over northern Iraq (USAF/Matthew Bruch)

Scene from an ISIS video (Flickr)

Suspects in the 2016 Brussels bombings (Wikimedia)

ISLAMIC STATE EGYPT COUNTER-TERRORISM

IISS NEWS MAY 2016 | 15

The Saudi–Iran Competition in the Middle East

At a corporate breakfast held at Arundel House on 3 March Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the IISS, examined the drivers and dynamics of the Saudi Arabia–Iran competition in the Middle East. Hokayem argued that this rivalry had become the primary fault line in the region, playing out primarily in the weak states and divided societies of the Arab world, exacerbating sectarianism. He noted that the strategies and policy instruments of both regional powers differed signifi-cantly, as did their respective expertise, experience and strategic patience. Hokayem concluded that the still unclear outcome of the Syrian crisis would matter more for the regional balance of power than the resolution of the Yemen conflict.

Syria: Between Escalation and Diplomacy

Russian intervention has fundamentally changed the battlefield dynam-ics in Syria, argued Emile Hokayem, IISS Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, at an Arundel House discussion meeting on 3 March. Targeted strikes had quickly weakened the rebels in key areas, leading to significant gains on the battlefield and a guaranteed role for the Syrian regime in any negotiated settlement. Hokayem highlighted the growing popularity of Jabhat al-Nusra among rebel groups in light of increased pressure from regime and Russian forces, and argued that these allegiances could fun-damentally change the outlook of the conflict as rebels began to pursue guerrilla tactics to fight Assad. Hokayem maintained that the Munich agreement merely signified a reduction in violence, not a ceasefire, and warned that blocking humanitarian assistance continued to be a weapon in the hands of the Assad regime. The discussion was chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies at the IISS.

Watch the video.

The Islamic State’s Aspirations and Its Reality

On 19 April, Dr Nelly Lahoud, IISS Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, spoke at a corporate breakfast that explored the extent to which the Islamic State’s, also known as ISIS or ISIL, state-building aspirations are in sync with the group’s reality. She argued that although the volume of violence the group had generated and its capacity to commit more should not be underes-timated, ISIS was not only failing to hold on to the territory it had captured but it was also unable to exer-cise a monopoly over the jihadi landscape. The most glaring failure of ISIS’ state-building project, Lahoud contended, was its inability to attract Syrian refugees, who were prepared to risk their lives to get to Europe rather than seek refuge in the ‘caliphate’ next door. The presentation was attended by members of the govern-ment and corporate sectors, and was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, IISS Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs and Editor of Survival.

IISS–MIDDLE EASTEXPERTS

The Evolution of JihadismIISS Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, Dr Nelly Lahoud, gave a public lecture at Arundel House on 20 April that pre-sented key events in the evolution of jihadism in the context of the broader sphere of political Islam. The lecture highlighted similarities and differences within that sphere, and what these might mean for the future of jihadism. Lahoud covered the evolution of the Islamic State and discussed its differences with al-Qaeda, particularly the irreconcilable ideological differences between the two groups. She argued that the outright rejection of positive law upon which jihadism is premised limits the jihadis’ ability to reach compromises, leaving them with a paradigm that necessarily favours literalism and rigidity in interpreting religious texts. She concluded that while jihadism was not destined to be suc-cessful, it was likely to feature more extremism and internal splits. The event was chaired by Dr Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East.

Watch the video.

Air strike in Sana’a, Yemen, 2015 (Ibrahem Qasim)

Al-Zaatari camp for Syrian refugees in Jordan (Mustafa Bader)

Syrian Opposition Council Chairman Moaz al-Khatib, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and US Secretary of State John Kerry in Istanbul, 2013

SYRIAMIDDLE EASTIRANTERRORISM AND SECURITY

16 | MAY 2016 IISS NEWS

EAST ASIANON-PROLIFERATION AND NUCLEAR POLICY EXPERTSNON-PROLIFERATION SANCTIONS

Survival Seminar: Nuclear Weapons and the Scottish Independence Debate

On 4 December 2015, the first in a series of seminars chaired by Dr Matthew Harries, Managing Editor of Survival, addressed the questions raised in William Walker’s article ‘Trident’s Replacement and the Survival of the United Kingdom’, published in the October–November 2015 issue of Survival. Walker, Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the University of St Andrews, argued that by ignoring Scottish parliamentary opposition to Trident’s renewal and its base in the Clyde, the UK gov-ernment risked contributing to pressure for Scottish independence. He suggested that if Scotland were to become independent – a possibility that should not be discounted – the future of the UK’s nuclear deterrent would be jeopardised.

What the Iran Nuclear Accord Means for Sanctions Today and Tomorrow

In an ongoing collaboration with the United Nations Panel of Experts on Iran, the IISS Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme held a workshop in London on 14 January to discuss the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and its impact on the various sanctions regimes in place until Implementation Day. The workshop, chaired by programme director Mark Fitzpatrick, convened 44 industry representatives together with government officials and experts from the UN panel and the IISS. The meeting was primarily devoted to UN sanctions, the timetable for phasing them out and the transition in some cases to ‘restrictions’ under the JCPOA. It also included discussion of conventional arms transfers, Iran’s ballistic missile programme and the ‘Procurement Channel’ meant to supply the legitimate needs of Iran’s nuclear programme. The seminar concluded with a detailed overview of the JCPOA’s impact on US and EU sanctions.

Adelphi Launch - Asia’s Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan

On 18 February, Mark Fitzpatrick held the first European launch of his new Adelphi book, Asia’s Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The book examines under what conditions the democracies in Northeast Asia might seek to join the nuclear-weapons club. They are all threshold nuclear powers by virtue of their robust civilian nuclear-energy programmes, all three once pursued nuclear weapons and all face nuclear-armed adversaries. The book analyses these past nuclear pursuits and current proliferation drivers. It considers how long it would take each to build a nuclear weapon if such a fateful decision were made, but does not predict such a scenario. It argues that reliance on US defence commitments is a better security alternative, as long as such guarantees remain credible.

Listen to the event. The book was also launched by IISS–Americas in New York and Washington DC. Watch the video.

Iran Nuclear Deal Implementation: Hiccups and Hurdles

Speaking at this IISS corporate breakfast at Arundel House on 14 April, Mark Fitzpatrick noted that on the surface, implementation of the Iran nuclear accord was on track. Iran continued to honour the limits on its uranium enrichment programme and it was receiving frozen revenues and resuming oil sales. The Iranian public showed its enthusiasm for the deal by voting in February for the most moderate candidates who were allowed to run. However, he argued, hardliners retained control of most key power centres and they were pursuing policies, including an aggressive missile launch schedule, that were sparking a backlash in Washington. Meanwhile, sanctions relief had produced fewer benefits than Iran expected, due to the reluctance of Western banks to handle trans-actions. Both sides accused the other of violating the spirit of the accord. As troubling as these claims were, they pointed to the potential for new diplomatic initiatives to address respective concerns.

UK Royal Navy nuclear-powered submarine HMS Ambush (Crown Copyright/Thomas McDonald) Wolsong nuclear power plant, South Korea (IAEA)

IISS NEWS MAY 2016 | 17

NORTH KOREA NON-PROLIFERATION AND NUCLEAR POLICYEXPERTS

The Iran Nuclear Deal: Challenges of Implementation

On 15 December 2015, Dr Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs, chaired a discussion meeting with Dr Robert Litwak, Vice President of the Woodrow Wilson Center. Litwak argued that many of the challenges likely to arise during implementation of the Iran deal were anticipated during the negotiations. On the surface, the deal was a straightforward trade-off between technology and transparency, but underlying that both the Obama administration and the Iranian Supreme Leader had made a tacit transformational bet: the Obama administration bet that Iran woud be in a different place in 15 years, and the Supreme Leader bet that Iran could pocket the economic benefits and ‘prevent the contagion’ at the same time.

Listen to the event.

Double Take: The Iran Nuclear Deal and North Korea’s Nuclear Test

Dr Gary Samore, Executive Director for Research at the Belfer Center at Harvard University, discussed recent nuclear events with Adam Ward, Director of Studies at the IISS, on 19 January. Samore, former Director of Studies at the IISS, used his homecoming discussion meeting to explore the question of how America’s chosen diplomatic strategy to prevent nuclear proliferation managed to produce one result in Iran and a totally different one in North Korea. Samore, once described by President Barack Obama as ‘my nuclear guy’, argued that the difference in results achieved by the Obama administration could be explained by three main factors: the status of each country’s nuclear programme, the type of government and its motivations for having a nuclear programme, and the amount of lever-age America was able to bring to bear on the problem.

Watch the event.

Military parade, North Korea (Flickr)

IAEA Safeguard inspectors (Dean Calma / IAEA)

IRAN

New Adelphi BooksAdelphi 455Asia’s Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea and TaiwanMark FitzpatrickUnder what conditions would the democracies in Northeast Asia seek to join the nuclear weapons club? Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are threshold nuclear powers by virtue of their robust civilian nuclear-energy programmes. All three once pursued nuclear weapons and all face nuclear-armed adversaries. Fitzpatrick’s latest book analyses these past nuclear pursuits and current proliferation drivers. It considers how long it would

take each to build a nuclear weapon if such a fateful decision were made but does not predict such a scenario. Unlike when each previously went down a nuclear path, democracy and a free press now prevail as barriers to building bombs in the basement. Reliance on US defence commitments is a better security alternative – as long as such guarantees remain credible. But extended deterrence is not a barrier to proliferation of sensitive nuclear technologies. Nuclear hedging by its Northeast Asian partners will chal-lenge Washington’s nuclear diplomacy.

Adelphi 453–454Egypt After the Spring: Revolt and ReactionEdited by Emile Hokayem with Hebatalla TahaThis Adelphi volume brings together senior scholars as well as rising analysts of Egypt to examine the tumultuous period from the January 2011 uprising against Hosni Mubarak, via the election and ouster of Muhammad Morsi, to the consolidation of presidential power under Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi by late 2015. The nine authors provide a sober, in-depth look at the country’s contested politics, institutional and political players, struggling economy, constant foreign policy and evolving security challenges.

The nine chapters are written by Professor Nathan J. Brown, Professor Ellis Goldberg, Dr Zeinab Abul-Magd, Yasser El-Shimy, Michael Wahid Hanna, Dr H.A. Hellyer, Gamal Hassan, Hebatalla Taha and Mohamed El Dahshan.

PUBLICATIONS

18 | MAY 2016 IISS NEWS

PUBLICATIONS

Forthcoming Adelphi BookAdelphi 456China’s Cyber PowerNigel InksterChina’s emergence as a major global power is reshaping the cyber domain. The country has the world’s largest internet-user community, a growing eco-nomic footprint and increasingly capable military and intelligence services. Harnessing these assets, it is pursuing a patient, assertive foreign policy that seeks to determine how information and communications technologies are governed and deployed. This policy is likely to have significant normative impact, with potentially adverse implications for a global order that has been shaped by Western liberal democracies. And, even as China goes out into the world, there are signs that new technologies are becoming powerful tools for domestic social control and the suppression of dissent abroad.

Western policymakers are struggling to meet this challenge. While there is much potential for good in a self-confident China that is will-

ing to invest in the global commons, there is no guarantee that the coun-try’s growth and modernisation will lead inexorably to democratic political reform. This Adelphi book examines the political, histori-cal and cultural development of China’s cyber power, in light of its evolving internet, intelligence structures, military capabilities and approach to global governance. As China attempts to gain the economic benefits that come with global connectivity while excluding infor-mation seen as a threat to stability, the West will be forced to adjust to a world in which its technological edge is fast eroding and can no longer be taken for granted.

Forthcoming Strategic Dossier: Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2016: Key developments and trends

Each year since 2002, the International Institute for Strategic Studies has organised the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. At this inter governmental regional security summit, defence ministers, military chiefs and other lead-ing members of the national-security establishments of the Asia-Pacific states – and other countries vitally involved in the region – meet to discuss the crucial regional security matters of the day. The Dialogue has become a fixture in the calendars of key defence decision-makers from the 27 coun-tries that regularly send delegations.

The Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2016 is the third IISS Strategic Dossier to be published in association with the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue. It focuses on five centrally important groups of regional security concerns relevant to the important discussions that can be

expected at the Dialogue in 2016 and subsequent years:

• The role of the Asian major powers – China, India and Japan – in regional security.

• Maritime security chal-lenges, including the militarisation of the South China Sea.

• Potential regional flash-points: the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan.

• Developments in regional states’ naval and defence-industrial capabilities.

• Emerging regional security issues in the form of challenges from unregulated migration and the Islamic State, and the wider impli-cations of economic-cooperation initiatives.

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2016The 15th Asia Security Summit, the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, will take place on 3–5 June 2016. Subjects to be debated include how to meet Asia’s complex security challenges, how to manage military competition in Asia and how to make defence policy in uncertain times. Further details and the outline agenda are available.

IISS Manama Dialogue 2016The 12th Regional Security Summit, the IISS Manama Dialogue, will take place on 9–11 December 2016. Further details will be available in the build-up to the Dialogue.

The report of the IISS Manama Dialogue 2015 is available along with video and transcripts for all Plenary Sessions, the Opening Televised Panel and the Opening Remarks and Keynote Address.

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue publicationsASIA SECURITY SUMMIT

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue