Philip Martin: [email protected]
Immigration & Farm Labor
Highlights Hired workers: average employ, 420,000 in 2015;
unique farm workers, 850,000: up 10% since 2005 Hired farm workers = Mexican-born (90% in CA);
not authorized (55%); settled & aging (38-39) Employer responses to fewer newcomers Satisfy current workers: bonuses, super training. Growers
inelastic supply: wage increases do not = more workers Stretch current workers: mechanical aids, change
production practices to make work easier; older & women Substitution: labor-saving mechanization (& switch crops) Supplement: young H-2A workers provide fresh blood, but
(1) recruit US, (2) provide housing, (3) pay AEWR ($12 CA) Uncertainty: no one knows best combination
Average FTE employment and # workers up 10%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
2007 2012 2015
Average FTE Employment and Unique Farm Workers: 2007, 2012, 2015
FTE EmploymentWorkers
Since 2009: more workers are brought to crop farms by nonfarm employers than are hired directly by crop farms
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
190,000
200,000
210,000
220,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Average FTE Crop and Crop Support Employment, 2006-15
CropCrop Support
LAT: Why dont US workers take $30,300 ag jobs? Fruits & FLCs are 55% of FTE employment: $18k & $10k
Chart1
3028317445
3248321464.2307692308
3695125397.3030927835
3003818564.6761290323
3334726366.3934911243
3586430061.1620795107
3579230634.9108527132
27221.237497426513498
224649865.2752387449
FTE Pay($)
Average Pay($)
FTE Annual Pay and Average Pay, 2015
Sheet1
FTE and Primary Worker Average Annual Pay, 2015
Share ofFTEPrimaryPrimary share
FTE EmployAnnual Pay($)Annual Pay($)Ave FTE
NAICS 11All ag100%30,28317,44558%
NAICS 111Crops42%32,48321,46466%
NAICS1112Vegetables8%36,95125,39769%
NAICS1113Fruits & nuts24%30,03818,56562%
NAICS1114Green & Nursery6%33,34726,36679%
NAICS1119Other crops3%36,88225,11768%
NAICS 112Animals7%35,86430,06184%
NAICS1121Cattle & dairy5%35,79230,63586%
112124%35,1050%
NAICS 115Support51%27,47313,70550%
NAICS 1151Crop support50%27,22113,49850%
115112Soil2%37,47619,99753%
115113Machine harvesting2%32,18318,22657%
115114Other postharvest9%38,15224,88665%
115115FLCs34%22,4649,86544%
115116Farm mgt sers3%36,61924,35166%
FTE Pay($)Average Pay($)Ave FTE
All ag30,28317,44558%
All Crops32,48321,46466%
Vegetables36,95125,39769%
Fruits & nuts30,03818,56562%
Green & Nursery33,34726,36679%
Animals35,86430,06184%
Cattle & dairy35,79230,63586%
Crop support27,22113,49850%
FLCs22,4649,86544%
3,000 US FLCs; 1,400 in CA
FLCs: Increase efficiency of worker-job
matching or act as risk absorbers?
Common crop support: harvesting tree fruits Hard to monitor workers in trees = piece rates
CA strawberries #1 ag employer: 90% of US 3 billion pounds from 40,000 acres, 60,000 to 70,000 workers
Vegetables: direct-hire & workers via crop
support firms (some are partners)
Nursery & dairy Big 5 of 20: crop support, FVH, & dairy = 82% of $12.7 bil CA ag wages in 2015
Hired Crop Workers
Men born in Mexico: 90%; unauthorized 55% Trends:
Fewer newcomers (workers in US less than 1 year). From 20% to 2% today. Result: average age (38-39) up
Settled & aging; families with US-born children; half get some means-tested benefits; few FTC migrants
Employ and earns: more weeks, higher wages Average $10.20/hour across US; $10.10 in CA in 2014 CA 36 weeks or 205 days of farm work Average earnings $17,500-$20,000/year; almost $100
a day Farm work like nonfarm work: live off the farm,
commute to work, have 1 farm employer during year
Unauthorized newcomers down: settled & less mobile
Agriculture: among first to feel effects of fewer
unauthorized newcomers
Employers: 4-S responses
Satisfy current farm workers with bonuses, benefits, & better supervisors. If supply of workers in US = inelastic, wage increases do not add to supply
Stretch with mechanical aids that increase productivity: conveyor belts in fields, dwarf trees. How much to invest, how fast to deploy?
Substitute: labor-saving mechanization. Will wages keep rising to justify investments? Involve seed companies with long time horizons? (Switch crops?)
Supplement the labor force with H-2As. Expand or change current program (1) no-recruitment (2) no-housing, and (3) reduced AEWR program? Allow H-2A workers in dairy & other year-round jobs?
Satisfy: bonuses, benefits, supervisor training & respect Most farmers: satisfy will not ENLARGE ag workforce
Stretch: mechanical aids to raise worker productivity
Thinning and harvesting apples from platforms
Culture change: workers share piece rate wages.
Sweet tango apples Dwarf trees & no ladders
Substitute: mechanize olives, carrots, tomatoes, nursery
Defense vs ag robots: performance vs costs
Supplement with H-2As: 75,000 FY07, 165,000 FY16. CA & WA up
H-2A FY17 up 16% from FY16; 200,000 jobs cert in FY17?
CA: 3,000 in 2012, 8,600 in 2015, 11,000 in 2016
CA: vegetable firms operate in Yuma & Salinas Border labor force is legal; BP agents check buses H-2As to Salinas: house in motels or on-farm housing?
T&A: $8 million to house 800 workers in Spreckels, $10,000 per bed
Old: largest CA H-2A user: Sierra-Cascade strawberry nursery (1,300 H-2As in Tulelake; WWII Japanese intern)
New: Fresh Harvest, FLC certified to fill 4,000 jobs with H-2A workers in FY16
Half of CA farm labor is in SJV, where fruit industry is concentrated, & less grower-shipper integration. H-2A expansion in CA led by coastal vegetable growers
Some shippers: increase imports of FVH commodities, esp Mexican berries
AEWRs 2017: $12.57 in CA;
CA: 50% increase in minimum wage by 2022 (now $10.50)
Big variance in median earnings: $18,000 Delano, $108,000 Los Altos Windfall gains for workers or job losses in SJV?
Projected median wage in 2022 in Fresno & Merced = $20 Historic experiment: min wage of $15 = median wage
AB 1066: 8/40 overtime. Dairy, irrigators, equip operators
Summary
Hired worker employment up as expansion offsets mechanization. Farm workers: fewer new entrants = aging & settled
unauthorized workers with US-born kids Employer responses
Satisfy current workers to retain Stretch with labor-stretching mechanical aids Substitute: labor-saving mechanization (switch) Supplement: H-2A workers; reduce recruitment,
housing, & AEWR requirements How fast does new enforcement occur?
Which of the 4 Ss takes priority? What variance by commodity and area?
Immigration & Farm LaborHighlightsSlide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Common crop support: harvesting tree fruitsHard to monitor workers in trees = piece ratesCA strawberries #1 ag employer: 90% of US 3 billion pounds from 40,000 acres, 60,000 to 70,000 workersSlide Number 9Slide Number 10Hired Crop WorkersSlide Number 12Slide Number 13Employers: 4-S responsesSlide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21CA: 3,000 in 2012, 8,600 in 2015, 11,000 in 2016 Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Summary
