Immigration - How Views Change · Changed a lot Changed a little Stayed the same Don't know Thinking back to the last general election in 2010, ... Do you think that immigration is

Immigration HOW VIEWS CHANGE APRIL 2015

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2 Exploring Changes in Immigration Attitudes Over Time

In the first study of its kind, Ipsos MORI is conducting a longitudinal panel survey of

the British public on their attitudes to immigration throughout and after the election

campaign. This will provide a much more detailed understanding of how and why

views on immigration change.

In this presentation we highlight the key findings from our first panel wave of over

4,500 respondents as well as other trend data exploring immigration attitudes over

the past several decades. The large sample for our survey allows us to look at

smaller sub-groups, including followers of all key parties and those who have

switched parties since the last election.

The Fieldwork for the first longitudinal panel wave was completed online, from 25

February to 4 March 2015. Further waves will be released during and after the

campaign.

This initial wave identified 10 key trends in public opinion…

We would like to thank Unbound Philanthropy for their support of this study.

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2%

10%

25%

33%

28%

3%

Very satisfied Fairly satisfiedNeither satisfied nor dissatisfied Fairly dissatisfiedVery dissatisfied Don't know

6%

23%

71%

6 in 10 are dissatisfied with the government’s handling of

immigration, rising to almost all among Tory defectors to UKIP

Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015), UKIP base: 172

All respondents UKIP supporters who voted Tory in 2010

Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the current government is dealing with immigration?

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3% 1% 3% 5% 4% 4%

28%

10%

33%

11%

33% 25%

71%

33%

35%

34%

36%

37%

40%

22% 25%

32%

23%

33%

20% 27%

6% 10% 20%

6% 15%

3% 5% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total Conservatives Labour Lib Dem SNP Green UKIP

Very satisfied Fairly satisfiedNeither satisfied nor dissatisfied Fairly dissatisfiedVery dissatisfied Don't know


Even among Tory supporters, satisfaction is low, with

only 23% satisfied

Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)

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6


Consistent with previous measures – although lowest

satisfaction we’ve measured since 2007…


14% 14% 11%

16% 14% 15% 21%

23%

12%

67% 68% 72%

66% 67% 64%

62%

64% 61%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Satisfied Dissatisfied

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9% 4% 7% 9% 8%

13% 2%

12%

1%

25%

5% 19% 7%

15%

14%

3%

25%

13%

18% 21%

13%

39%

30%

36%

49%

43% 49%

47%

20%

44%

6%

20%

11% 8%

18%

7% 18%

1% 4%

2% 2% 5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total Conservatives Labour Lib Dem SNP Green UKIP

A much better job A slightly better job There's no difference

A slightly worse job A much worse job Don't know

Do you think the current government has done a better or worse job of handling immigration than the previous Labour government?

The current government is generally seen as on a par with

previous Labour government on immigration


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7%

20%

39%

14%

12%

9%

A much better job now A slightly better job nowThere's no difference A slightly worse job nowA much worse job now Don't know

6%

26%

48%

8%

11%

1%

Do you think the current government has done a better or worse job of handling immigration than the previous Labour government?

And nearly half of Tory defectors to UKIP think there’s no

difference between this and previous Labour government

All respondents

Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015), UKIP base: 172

UKIP supporters who voted Tory in 2010

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11 Four in ten have shifted views since the last election and of

those, a majority are more worried, particularly UKIP supporters

1% 3% 4% 1% 5%

55% 58%

63%

42%

54%

33% 28%

29%

32%

29%

11% 11% 5%

25%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Conservatives Labour Lib Dems UKIP Total

Changed a lot Changed a little Stayed the same Don't know

Thinking back to the last general election in 2010, since then would you say your views on immigration have

changed a lot, a little, or stayed the same?

18%

30%

33%

62%

36%

56%

50%

57%

34%

50%

18%

14%

8%

3%

10%

7%

4%

1%

2%

4%

2%

2%

1%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Lib Dems

Labour

Conservatives

UKIP

Total

Much more worried A little more worried

A little less worried Much less worried

Don't know

And would you say you have become

more or less worried about immigration since 2010?

Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015) Base: those who say their views have changed a lot or a little, 930 British adults 16+

(Feb-March 2015)

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23%

34%

22%

7%

3% 11% It is being discussed a lot more now

It is being discussed a bit more now

It is being discussed about the sameamount

It is being discussed a bit less now

It is being discussed a lot less now

Don't know

Do you think that immigration is being discussed more, less or about the same amount now than it was at the time of the last general election in 2010?

Over half think that immigration is being discussed

more now than at the last general election


© Ipsos MORI

14 1 in 5 UKIP supporters think that immigration is being discussed

less now than in 2010

11% 4% 7%

8% 9%

3% 10% 2% 3% 1%

7% 11%

6% 8%

5%

22% 22%

23% 20%

20%

34% 35%

41% 32%

34%

23% 18% 21%

29% 32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total UKIP Conservatives Labour Lib Dems

It is being discussed a lot more now It is being discussed a bit more nowIt is being discussed about the same amount It is being discussed a bit less nowIt is being discussed a lot less now Don't know

Do you think that immigration is being discussed more, less or about the same amount now than it was at the time of the last general election in 2010?


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7% 8%

62%

37%

20%

28%

11%

27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-11 Feb-15

Too much About the right amount Too little Don't know

Source: YouGov, April 2011; Ipsos MORI, Mar 2014, Dec 2014, Feb 2015

Generally speaking, do you think that the issue of immigration has been discussed in Britain too much, too little or about the right amount over the last few years/months?

By party (Feb 2015)

Views about level of discussion are polarising – three in four UKIP supporters

think it is discussed too little, half of Lib Dems say too much

4%

7%

6%

2%

8%

41%

28%

17%

74%

37%

37%

28%

28%

21%

28%

18%

38%

48%

4%

27%

0% 50% 100%

Conservatives

Labour

Lib Dems

UKIP

Total

© Ipsos MORI

17

72%

23%

4% 1%

Immigration is not as much of aproblem as politicians and themedia make out

There is too much talk but notenough action to controlimmigration

Neither

Don't know

You said that immigration has been discussed too much over the last few months. Which of these two statements best explains why you think that?

And most who think we discuss it too much are generally

not worried about it

Base: 1,215 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)

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19 Foreign born population is overestimated across the board. Lib

Dem and Green supporters closer to actual proportion (c13%)

What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? MEAN


0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Green

Lib Dem

SNP

Labour

Conservatives

UKIP

Total

© Ipsos MORI

20 Party supporters that are least positive about the impact of immigration

are most likely to overestimate immigration levels

R² = 0.7767

.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00 22.00 24.00 26.00

Lib Dems

Plaid Cymru

Labour

SNP Total

Conservatives

UKIP

Greens

What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are

immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? MEAN

On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or

negative impact on Britain? (0 is “very negative”, 10 is “very

positive”) MEAN


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22 But the opposite is true for generations – younger

generations more positive but less accurate

R² = 0.7411

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00 24.00 25.00

What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are

immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? MEAN

On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or

negative impact on Britain? (0 is “very negative”, 10 is

“very positive”) MEAN


Pre-war

Gen X

Baby-boomers

Gen Y

Pre-war: born before 1945

Baby-boomers: born between 1945 and 1965

Gen X: born between 1966 and 1979

Gen Y: born since1980

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0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pre-war (bornbefore 1945)

Baby boomers(born between1945 and 1965

Gen X (bornbetween 1966and 1979)

Gen Y (bornsince 1980)

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

What would you say is the most important issue/other important issues facing Britain today?

RACE RELATIONS/IMMIGRATION

Generations have diverged in their views on the salience

of immigration since the last election

GE2010

© Ipsos MORI

26 Most Britons still prefer to stay in the EU, even when

considering the ability to control immigration

22%

22%

12%

17%

22%

20%

26%

15%

Strongly agree

Tend to agree

Tend to disagree

Strongly disagree

Don’t know

Base: 2,287 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)

19%

21%

20%

27%

12%

I would like Britain to leave the European Union I would like Britain to leave the European Union as that is the only way we can

control the number of immigrants coming

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement…?

Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 2,287British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)

© Ipsos MORI

27 Which issues will be very important when voters cast their

ballots?

66%

47%

46%

45%

40%

36%

36%

35%

34%

32%

Healthcare/NHS/hospitals

Asylum and immigration

The economy

Care for older/disabled people

Benefits

Education/schools

Europe/EU

Pensions

Crime/law and order

Taxation

Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?


© Ipsos MORI

28 Only 23% say Immigration AND Europe will be

important to them

13% 23% 24%

Europe Only Both Europe and Immigration Immigration only


Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?

© Ipsos MORI

30 In 2005, the top four factors related to thinking

immigration is an issue were all newspapers…

Immigration

Read the Daily Mail

Owner-occupier

Vote Conservative

Read the Daily Express

Read the Sun

Work full-time

More likely to see as

important issue to Britain

Social classes AB

Read the Guardian

Satisfied with gov

1.81

1.65

1.65

1.32

1.29

1.16

0.63

Less likely to see as


Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, Jan-Oct 2004

0.68

0.58

Figures show odds ratios – i.e. how much more/less likely each group is to think immigration is an issue

© Ipsos MORI

31 Reflected in the massive divergence of views across

readers of different newspapers

• Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

DailyExpress

Daily Mail

Daily Mirror

DailyTelegraph

TheGuardian

TheIndependent

The Sun

The Times

None ofthese


IMMIGRATION

© Ipsos MORI

32

Immigration

Vote UKIP

Read the Sun

Vote Conservative

Read Daily Mail

White ethnic group

Aged 65+

More likely to see as


Read the Guardian

Degree/post-grad

Vote Labour

Scotland

Aged 18-24

Greater London

Vote Green

4.75

1.69

1.67

1.61

1.44

1.41

0.55

0.56

0.63

0.68

0.68

0.52

0.74

Less likely to see as


Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, Jan-Oct 2014

But now political affiliation is the strongest predictor of

views on immigration

Figures show odds ratios – i.e. how much more/less likely each group is to think immigration is an issue

© Ipsos MORI

33

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrats (LibDem)

UK Independence Party

Would not vote

Undecided

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index


IMMIGRATION

Our long term trends show that UKIP supporters more likely

to say immigration an important issue

Immigration HOW VIEWS CHANGE

For more details contact: [email protected] [email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

Documents

Immigration - How Views Change · Changed a lot Changed a little Stayed the same Don't know Thinking back to the last general election in 2010, ... Do you think that immigration is