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Declining violence rates
source: City and Suburban Crime Trends in Metropolitan America, The Brookings Institution
Homicide motives
Indoor & Outdoor MurdersMurder ClearancesShootings & Stabbings
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
Homicides – Race/ethnicity of victims
Indoor & Outdoor MurdersMurder ClearancesShootings & StabbingsMurder Victims by Race/Ethnicity
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
Homicide – Indoor or outdoor
Indoor v. Outdoor Murders
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
Homicides – Shootings, stabbings
Indoor & Outdoor MurdersMurder ClearancesShootings & Stabbings
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
Homicide prior arrest - offender
Indoor & Outdoor MurdersMurder Victims with Prior Arrest History
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
Homicides cleared
Indoor & Outdoor MurdersMurder Clearances
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
Criminal justice system in Illinois
In 2009, more than 125,000 adults were under a form of correctional supervision —including probation, prison or mandatory supervised release—for a felony
conviction in Illinois: almost double the number in 1989.
Source: Illinois Sentencing Police Advisory Council
The Enduring Grip of Disadvantage:Durability of Concentrated Poverty During an Era
of Social Transformation, Chicago Community
Areas, 1960-2000
Source: Sampson 2012
Inequality’s Durable Imprint: Before and after the 2008 Economic Crisis
Source: Sampson, 2012
Source: Sampson, 2012
Not Just About Poverty:Remarkably Persistent Violence Profiles
During a Sharp Secular Decline in Violence
Source: Sampson, 2012
Spatial and macro level processes
Individual characteristics and selection processes
Community Mediating Rates of structure mechanism well-being
Source: Sampson, 2012
Collective Efficacy Theory
Collective Efficacy Predicts Later Homicide Rates (Controlling for time period, concentrated disadvantage, residential stability, population
density, friend/kinship ties, legal/moral cynicism, and prior homicide)
Source: Sampson, 2012
Cure violence (CeaseFire-Chicago) model
If you are listening through your computer
•Type your question into the Q&A pane
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•The moderator will unmute your phone, enabling you to ask in person
Prof. Wesley Skogan, Northwestern University
Policing strategies
Smart Gun Policing• interrupt supply• deter possession• reduce public gun carrying• tough responses to gun use• reduce demand for guns• address conditions that foster gun carrying and use
Smart Gang Policing• targeting violent groups and high-risk individuals
Smart Community Oriented Policing• responsive to community concerns and priorities • assist in norm building by gaining respect and confidence• assist in community mobilization
Prof. Wesley Skogan, Northwestern University
Building public confidence & respect
Prof. Wesley Skogan, Northwestern University
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
0
10
20
30
40
perc
ent f
earf
ul
Afraid to Go Out by Home Ownership
rentershome owners
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
2003
0
20
40
60
80
Quality of Service Index
WhitesBlacksLatinos
perc
ent f
avor
able
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
2003
0
20
40
60
80
Police Responsiveness
WhitesBlacksLatinospe
rcen
t fav
orab
le
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
0
20
40
60
80
Under Age 30 by Race
WhitesBlacksLatinos
Quality of Service
Assist in community mobilization
01/9501/96
01/9701/98
01/9901/00
01/0101/02
01/0301/04
01/0501/06
01/0701/08
01/0901/10
07/10
0
2000
4000
6000
mo
nth
ly a
tten
da
nce
0
200000
400000
600000
800000cu
mu
lative
atte
nd
an
ce
monthly attendancecumulative attendance
5105
7384
6133
6839
1536
6000
5615
1838
928,200
Prof. Wesley Skogan, Northwestern University
Would stronger gun control reduce homicides?
Indoor & Outdoor MurdersMurder ClearancesShootings & Stabbings
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
Why did the murder rate rise in 2012?
source: 2011 Murder Analysis Report, Chicago Police Department
What works?
•Patrol strategies
•Hardened targets - security
•Hot spot arrests
•Broken windows
•Gang interventions
•Gun control
•Social/Emotional training
photo credit: top, Chronicle/Lance Iversen
In conversation
Prof. Robert SampsonHarvard University
Prof. Wesley SkoganNorthwestern University
Moderator: Jim Lewis, Ph.D.
Senior Program Officer
Go deeper
Today’s presentation can be viewed online:www.cct.org/impactchicago
For more information about today’s topic:contact Jim Lewis at 312.616.8000 ext. 158
To make a difference through your philanthropy:please contact your relationship manager