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Aon BenfieldImpact Forecasting
Impact Forecasting®
Transparent and customisable catastrophe models and platform
ELEMENTS 12 – Summer 2018
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In an increasingly risky world, insurers and reinsurers need more sophisticated tools to quantify and manage the risks facing their businesses. Impact Forecasting, Aon Benfield’s catastrophe model development centre of excellence, enables firms to analyse the financial implications of catastrophic events and achieve a greater understanding of their risks.
Breadth of Model CoverageWith over 100 probabilistic and scenario models spanning 10 perils and over 60 territories, we empower insurers by providing risk insights for the peak risk zones around the globe, as well as for the emerging markets. This allows insurers to place effective reinsurance programmes and manage capital based on more accurate model results. Impact Forecasting partners with academic and industry organisations around the world to incorporate the latest research into all of our catastrophe models.
Customisable modelsAll Impact Forecasting models can be customised based on the client’s requirements, for example, using an insurer’s loss data to generate more accurate results for a specific line of business, modify an existing event to explore the sensitivity of the losses for regulatory purposes or explore hazard uncertainty for a given peril. Examples include using our engineering expertise to apply claims data from churches and greenhouses to create bespoke damage functions and exploring uncertainty in the hazard component of our US hurricane model.
Transparent ELEMENTS loss calculation platformOur models run in ELEMENTS, which gives insurers the ability to incorporate their own view of risk into model results. It delivers transparency so every step of the calculation process is clearly defined and can be easily explained to stakeholders, regulators and rating agencies while helping to quantify uncertainty in various model components. As a universal catastrophe modelling platform, ELEMENTS has the ability to run both Impact Forecasting models and third party models for any peril or territory. It also enables users to quantify and visualise the range of uncertainties to make business decisions based on their individual risk appetites.
Risk rating information to enhance primary underwritingImpact Forecasting’s set of hazard and risk score products—based on its modelled data—enables more accurate underwriting and risk assessment for natural and man-made hazards. The data helps insurers and corporations understand the impact of catastrophe risk on individual locations and then in turn estimate how much premium to charge.We also integrate our data with a number of third party exposure management and policy administration systems.
Contents
About Impact Forecasting 3
Model Coverage Map 4-5
Model Coverage Index 6-7
Catastrophe Analysis and Reporting
Impact Forecasting provides real-time information on catastrophic events through Cat Alerts, Weekly and Monthly Cat Recaps and the Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report.
The Catastrophe Insight portal provides aggregated economic and insured loss data for global natural catastrophe events during the current year plus the previous decade. Users can compare losses by peril or region.
catastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com
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IsraelProbabilistic Scenario
France
Western & Northern Europe
Probabilistic Scenario
Latin America
TurkeyProbabilistic Scenario
CyprusProbabilistic Scenario
Belgium
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Switzerland
Portugal
Germany
Ireland
Iceland
Luxembourg
Liechtenstein
Denmark
FinlandCanada
Scenario
United States of America
Probabilistic Scenario
Mexico
Probabilistic
Chile
Scenario
Brazil
Entire territory
Probabilistic
Puerto RicoScenarioProbabilistic
Virgin IslandsScenarioProbabilistic
Sweden
Norway
Peru
Africa
Probabilistic Scenario
Arabian Peninsula
Probabilistic Scenario
Algeria
Uganda
Kenya
Tanzania
Morocco
South Africa
Kuwait
Oman
Bahrain
United Arab Emirates
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Yemen
GreeceProbabilistic Scenario
Asia
Indonesia
Probabilistic Scenario
Pakistan
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
India
South Korea
Hong Kong
Iran
Taiwan
Kazakhstan
Guam
China
Japan
Philippines
Vietnam
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Slovenia
Croatia
Romania
Serbia
Hungary
Czechia
Slovakia
Poland
Montenegro
Central and Eastern Europe
Probabilistic Scenario
Bulgaria
Austria
South PacificIslands
Oceania
AustraliaProbabilistic Scenario
tropical cyclone tsunamiearthquake terrorism workers’ compensation
third party models
brushfirestorm surge
tornado* fluvial flood
windstorm life
Map Icons
*tornado / hail / severe winds / thunderstorm
pluvial flood / cloudburst
hail hail crop
Model Coverage Map
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Territory Probabilistic Scenario
Algeria earthquake earthquake
Australia flood (Ambiental), hail flood, flood (Ambiental), hail
Austria earthquake, flood, hail, windstorm flood, hail, windstorm
Bahrain earthquake earthquake
Belgium windstorm windstorm
Bosnia and Herzegovina
earthquake
Brazil flood
Bulgaria earthquake
Canada flood, pluvial flood flood, pluvial flood, tsunami (UCL)
Chile earthquake, tsunami earthquake, tsunami
China tropical cyclone flood
Croatia earthquake
Cyprus earthquake earthquake
Czechia flood, hail flood, hail
Denmark windstorm windstorm
Finland windstorm windstorm
France hail, windstorm flood, hail, windstorm
Germany earthquake, hail, life-terrorism, storm surge, terrorism, windstorm
flood, hail, storm surge, windstorm
Greece earthquake earthquake
Guam tropical cyclone tropical cyclone
Hong Kong tropical cyclone
Hungary earthquake, flood
Iceland earthquake earthquake
India tropical cyclone flood
Indonesia flood earthquake, flood
Iran earthquake
Ireland windstorm windstorm
Israel earthquake, life-earthquake earthquake, life-earthquake
Japan earthquake, tropical cyclone, tsunami
earthquake, flood, tropical cyclone, tsunami
Kazakhstan earthquake earthquake
Kenya earthquake
Kuwait earthquake earthquake
Latin America flood (Fathom)
Liechtenstein flood flood
Luxembourg windstorm windstorm
Malaysia flood, tropical cyclone flood
Mexico flood
Territory Probabilistic Scenario
Montenegro earthquake
Morocco earthquake earthquake
Netherlands flood, hail, storm surge, windstorm flood, hail, storm surge, windstorm
Norway windstorm windstorm
Oman earthquake earthquake
Pakistan earthquake
Peru earthquake earthquake
Philippines tropical cyclone earthquake
Poland flood, hail flood, hail
Portugal flood
Puerto Rico earthquake, tropical cyclone earthquake, tropical cyclone
Qatar earthquake earthquake
Romania earthquake
Saudi Arabia earthquake cloudburst, earthquake, flood
Serbia earthquake
Singapore earthquake
Slovakia earthquake, flood flood
Slovenia earthquake, hail hail
South Africa earthquake, hail, hail—crop hail, hail—crop
South Korea tropical cyclone
South Pacific Islands earthquake earthquake, tropical cyclone
Sweden windstorm cloudburst, flood, windstorm
Switzerland earthquake, flood earthquake, flood
Taiwan tropical cyclone
Tanzania earthquake
Thailand flood, tropical cyclone earthquake, flood
Turkey earthquake, life-earthquake earthquake, life-earthquake
Uganda earthquake
United Arab Emirates earthquake earthquake
United Kingdom fluvial/pluvial flood and storm surge (JBA), life-terrorism, terrorism, windstorm
fluvial/pluvial flood and storm surge (JBA), terrorism—computational fluid dynamics, windstorm
United States of America
earthquake, brushfire, cloudburst / pluvial flood, fluvial flood, life-terrorism, storm surge, terrorism, tornado / hail / severe winds / thunderstorm, tropical cyclone, workers’ compensation
cloudburst / pluvial flood, earthquake, fluvial flood, storm surge, terrorism, terrorism-computational fluid dynamics, tropical cyclone, tornado / hail / severe winds / thunderstorm RePlay
Vietnam earthquake, flood, storm surge, tropical cyclone
earthquake, storm surge, tropical cyclone
Virgin Islands earthquake earthquake
Yemen earthquake earthquake
Model Coverage Index
The Aon Centre The Leadenhall Building | 122 Leadenhall Street | London | EC3V 4AN aonbenfield.com Aon UK Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.FP #12789 - 05/2018
About Impact ForecastingImpact Forecasting is Aon Benfield’s catastrophe model development centre of excellence whose seismologists, meteorologists, engineers, mathematicians, finance risk management and insurance professionals analyse the financial implications of natural and man-made catastrophes around the world. Impact Forecasting’s experts develop a suite of probabilistic and scenario models, plus its transparent and customisable ELEMENTS loss calculation platform. These empower insurers and reinsurers to understand the impact of global risks ranging from hurricane, earthquake and flood to tsunami, cloudburst and terrorism. To find out more about Impact Forecasting® LLC, visit www.impactforecasting.com
Impact Forecasting Contact
Adam Podlaha+44 (0)20 7522 [email protected] impactforecasting.com
The gateway to independent modelsImpact Forecasting offers the ability to run third party models in ELEMENTS to increase your choice of coverage. These range from your own in-house tools to models from JBA, UCL, Ambiental and Fathom.
Equally several Impact Forecasting models are also available on the Flamingo/Oasis and Simplitium ModEx platforms.
Would you like to integrate your own model? Please contact us!